Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Camden Depot: Measuring Bullpen Management: Bucking Up the Bullpen

Jon Shepherd suggests a way to evaluate a manager’s bullpen usage over time, drawing on Dan Lependorf’s article at Hardball Times:

A Hardball Times article suggested using WPA - WPA/LI as a measure of bullpen performance that would be useful in assessing bullpen management.  WPA is the acronym for Wins Probability Added.  This is calculated as the difference in win expectancy before and after an event. LI is the Leverage Index.  It is a measurement of how consequential a specific scenario is based on the inning, outs, score, baserunners, and baserunner position.  By using the two statistics in concert, you arguably have a measure that gives you a context neutral wins added metric.

To test whether this metric would give an indication that managers have skill associated with using a bullpen well, I decided to take the last five seasons of several recent managers.  I compare each manager’s mean for WPA, WPA/LI, and WPA-WPA/LI (ANOVA).  WPA will inform us simply if certain teams wind up with better outcomes for winning based on reliever usage.  WPA/LI will neutralize all situations and measure reliever ability in general (similar to wOBA).  WPA-WPA/LI is being used to inform us about whether relievers actually perform better in clutch situations.  If one of these statistics indicate an actual skill then the numbers associated with a manager should be (1) repeatable and (2) result in managers being different from each other.  Of course, this assumes that these things are, in fact, measurable.

The results are somewhat as you might expect: Showalter, Joe Girardi, and Joe Maddon do well, Eric Wedge, Ozzie Guillen and Mike Scioscia do relatively poorly. There are a couple of surprises mixed in - Ron Washington in the upper tier, Bruce Bochy and Jim Leyland near the bottom.

Not a perfect study, but an excellent start.

Mike Emeigh Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:57 AM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bullpens, managers, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Larvell B
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 2018 Apr 23: The Dominant-Sport Theory of American Politics
(253 - 6:51am, Apr 24)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (April - June 2018)
(175 - 6:15am, Apr 24)
Last: Ben Broussard Ramjet

NewsblogESPN's top 50 players
(62 - 5:48am, Apr 24)
Last: dejarouehg

NewsblogOT - 2017-18 NBA thread (All-Star Weekend to End of Time edition)
(2496 - 3:09am, Apr 24)
Last: LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-23-2018
(18 - 2:06am, Apr 24)
Last: Hank G.

NewsblogDidn't come up here to read. Came up here to OMNICHATTER, for April 23, 2018.
(64 - 11:30pm, Apr 23)
Last: Dale Sams

Gonfalon CubsRiding the Rails of Mediocrity
(8 - 11:28pm, Apr 23)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

Newsblog'Family' and sense of 'brotherhood' has Diamondbacks picking up right where they left off
(16 - 8:47pm, Apr 23)
Last: Dr. Vaux

Hall of Merit2019 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(110 - 8:35pm, Apr 23)
Last: Bleed the Freak

NewsblogForget that one call; Sean Manaea deserves our full attention
(12 - 6:04pm, Apr 23)
Last: Leroy Kincaid

NewsblogWhite Sox pitcher Danny Farquhar in critical condition after suffering ruptured aneurysm
(24 - 5:25pm, Apr 23)
Last: Batman

NewsblogCallaway says Harvey might not make his next start after performance in 12-4 loss to Braves
(17 - 4:47pm, Apr 23)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogAT&T Park, Fenway Park and Wrigley Field top list of Rockies’ favorite ballparks
(9 - 2:01pm, Apr 23)
Last: Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb

NewsblogTaking Back the Ballparks - Miami Marlins
(58 - 2:00pm, Apr 23)
Last: Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant

NewsblogNYTimes: Now Batting in Class AA: Biggio, Bichette and Guerrero
(9 - 11:42am, Apr 23)
Last: Crispix Attacksel Rios

Page rendered in 0.0997 seconds
45 querie(s) executed