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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Cameron: Introducing Fielding Dependent Pitching

The idea for FDP was to quantify the remaining aspects of run prevention that are not measured by walks, strikeouts, and home runs. With a FIP-based WAR, we have a metric that tells us how many wins a pitcher added through success in those three key areas. What we did not have was a metric that gave us the wins added through either hit prevention or runner stranding. With FDP, we wanted to be able to break down the remaining aspects into those two categories, so that we could identify exactly where a team’s run prevention — with a specific pitcher on the mound — was coming from.

To do that, we simply worked backwards. First, we calculated the total WAR that a pitcher would receive credit for if he was only evaluated by his runs allowed, and we assumed that he had 100 percent responsibility for every variable that influenced run scoring. That stat is now on the site, and is called “RA9-Wins”. If you do not want to consider any impact of fielding on run prevention, and solely want to evaluate a pitcher by what actually happened when he was pitching (accounting for park and league adjustments, at least), then this is the metric for you.

JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:16 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, statistics

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   1. boteman digs the circuit clout Posted: August 30, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4221963)
I'm hoping to finish my essay on Batter-Independent Total Contribution to Hitting (B.I.T.C.H.) before the post-season begins. Stay tuned.
   2. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: August 30, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4221968)
The "genius" of Cameron /
Leads to Hiroshima
   3. GregD Posted: August 30, 2012 at 12:58 AM (#4221982)
I hope this is a helpful stat and am not in a position to judge that for myself. But I have to say the headline made me laugh out loud.
   4. Honkie Kong Posted: August 30, 2012 at 02:09 AM (#4221998)
Mark Prior refuses to have anything to do with this Fielding Dependent crap.
   5. BFFB Posted: August 30, 2012 at 05:36 AM (#4222009)
Isn't there already a perfectly good measure of "Fielding Dependent Pitching" called "Runs Allowed".
   6. Lassus Posted: August 30, 2012 at 08:22 AM (#4222037)
Geez.
   7. Tricky Dick Posted: August 30, 2012 at 09:23 AM (#4222107)
Isn't there already a perfectly good measure of "Fielding Dependent Pitching" called "Runs Allowed".

That was my first reaction when I read the headline. But, after reading the article, and looking at the new stats on the value page for pitchers, it looks like an interesting idea. The purpose of the FDP is so that the components of the "fielding dependent" part of the stat can be deconstructed.

The FDP starts with a RA/9 based WAR. The new components are "balls in play" wins and "left on base" wins. Cameron shows this formula:

RA9= FIP+BIP+LOB

If you are interested in understanding why a pitcher's actual results depart from FIP, this provides more detailed information.
   8. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: August 30, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4222134)
So, kind of a Dupont Analysis of pitching WAR? It's actually pretty cool.
   9. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 30, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4222311)
Finally some ammunition for my "Barmes For MVP" campaign.
   10. BFFB Posted: August 30, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4222416)
That was my first reaction when I read the headline. But, after reading the article, and looking at the new stats on the value page for pitchers, it looks like an interesting idea. The purpose of the FDP is so that the components of the "fielding dependent" part of the stat can be deconstructed.


I've read the full article now and it is more interesting than the excerpt would lead you to believe. I still don't like the idea of all-encompassing super stats so the increased granularity of this is welcome particularly if you combine it with measures of team defense and GB/FB tendencies.

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