Sheeet, so easy…even Brett Wallace almost hit one to the warning track.
There are two numbers that are probably a bit higher than we would have expected, though, and they’re definitely related.
The league average ERA is 4.13 despite the increase in strikeouts for one simple reason; Major League teams have hit a lot of home runs in the first week of the season. Given the time of year we’re talking about, it’s almost an extraordinary amount of home runs.
...It’s too early to call this a continuation of that trend, but I will note that the current MLB HR/CON rate in 2013 is 4.0%, the same as it was during the 1999 and 2001 seasons. Yes, it’s 116 games out of 2,430, and this could end up being nothing more than a blip on the radar, so don’t go overboard with any conclusions just yet.
However, April is supposed to be the month where the ball flies the least. The first week of April is the coldest weak of the month, on average. Because we haven’t even taken two full turns through the rotation yet, the innings totals are skewed towards each team’s best pitchers. And yet, despite all those variables that would theoretically push home run totals down, the ball is flying out of Major League stadiums at about the same rate it did during the absolute peak of the home run boom.
It could very well be nothing. 2,000 innings isn’t enough to draw any real conclusions. Maybe it’s been unseasonably warm the first week. With samples this small, a few gusts of wind and some random variation could be tricking us into seeing something that isn’t there. With that caveat, though, it is still something to keep an eye on. MLB saw an uptick in power last year, and it’s seen a very small sample uptick in power to start 2013. The rising strikeout rates are keeping the scores down enough to where it has gone unnoticed, but dingers might be making an underreported comeback in Major League Baseball right now.
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Shooty is in the Trust TreeYou don't think Crisp will hit 40 HRs? Why you gotta hate?
You don't think Crisp will hit 40 HRs?
But Chris Davis is on pace for 360 RBI ... although this is down substantially from his earlier pace of 640.
ML WAR leader? Barry Zito of course with 1.2. If he stops now this will be his best season since 2010.
Somewhere Brady Anderson is shaking his fist.
My sweaty, uncomfortable ### can confirm this was the case last night in Nationals Park when Bryce Harper crushed one into the second deck.
Brandon Moss looks for real, if nothing else. I think the A's, because of all the platooning, are going to surprise people with how many HRs they hit because they won't have anyone on the leaderboard.
According to B-R, Zito is at 0.8. Fangraphs has him at 0.3.
OK, RocksForJocks, what about game temperatures vs. HR/9 this year compared to other years?
Baseball fan at all-time high!
In 2010/2011, the Phillies, who rely on and are proud of the philosophy that they are a scouting/development, not numbers, organization, had Moss, Ryan Voglesong and Jason Grilli in AAA and released all three.
For pitching. And 0.4 for batting.
holy cow. I get moss in a way because he has holes in his game. but the other two guys had lively arms
this is surprising
It is, as they say, complicated to measure that. But the underlying physics is clear - balls fly farther in warmer weather, and it has been very warm throughout the East.
The midwest begs to differ.
Well, not my East. It's been freezing up here in Quebec City. And we're expecting several inches of f?%$*&? snow tomorrow. Not that anyone cares here but I needed to vent my frustration.
Hung on to Pete Orr like grim death, though!
:(
We'll show them all!!!!
right now there is delay but the harvest can still meet usual levels because the moisture is there (obviously) contingent on the sun showing up come june/july. nature has a funny way of balancing htings.
sure some crops may do better/worse but overall it's not crisis mode yet
late springs are not nearly as damaging as drought
it's more aggravating than anything
The wife is an avid gardener, though we don't plant commodity crops. Our soil is pretty fantastic, despite being in the middle of the city.
corn is a grass. you give it plenty of water and the sun comes out and it will make up for lost time 'fast'
In addition to higher temperatures, higher temperatures this time of year correlate with SW winds. This also boosts offense.
Ruben Amaro Jr. was on fire in 2010. A vintage year for him.
(heck we hit 4 yesterday to get up to that lofty position of 18th...still in single digit homeruns as a team.)
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main