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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Cameron: Why a July 31 trade deadline just doesn’t make sense anymore

Jack Z. needs more time to do something stupid.

The Rays are a perfect example of why the league should consider moving the deadline back a couple of weeks. It’s probably in the long-term best interests of the organization to trade David Price, as they will get a much larger return for him now—when the acquiring team could get two postseason runs with Price as their ace—than they will if they hold him and make a trade this winter.  However, they’ve clawed back into the playoff race, and currently have a 15 percent chance of making the postseason. Over the next day or so, the Rays will have to decide whether or not they’re really contenders, when the reality is that they just don’t know. 

With two more weeks to evaluate, the Rays’ chances of making a real postseason run will be more clear. They’d be able to gather more information, and make a better decision about whether to keep Price for their own stretch run or trade him to a team that could make better use of his talents in October. Why is it good for baseball to force franchises to make franchise-altering decisions when it isn’t clear which way they should go?

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 02:32 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dave cameron, pennant race, rays, trade deadline, trade rumors

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Joe Kehoskie Posted: July 30, 2014 at 05:48 PM (#4760841)
Why is it good for baseball to force franchises to make franchise-altering decisions when it isn’t clear which way they should go?

This will be true whether the deadline is July 31 or August 15 or June 15.

The July 31 deadline is fine just as it is.
   2. Shibal Posted: July 30, 2014 at 07:26 PM (#4760910)
Screw that, make it June 1st. Playoff teams shouldn't be determined by players who were dumped in-season by non-contenders.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: July 30, 2014 at 07:59 PM (#4760927)

it was June 15 back in the 1970s, aka "the day"
   4. Willie Mayspedester Posted: July 30, 2014 at 08:06 PM (#4760933)
I agree with #2 or just leave it as is. The additional wildcard has made it harder to determine the sellers, and I like that.
   5. dr. scott Posted: July 30, 2014 at 08:15 PM (#4760942)
In some sense, the earlier it is, the more parity might occur. Only teams with no chance will trade in June or early July, and with the second wildcard, there are only a few of those teams. Those teams then will get a bigger haul for their good major leaguers, as a lot of teams will be competing for just a few players. (I'm thinking the Cubs/A's deal where the cubs got one of the best prospects in the majors for a couple pitchers... if only the A's had managed to flip Hammel before he started sucking...)

then you have the Giants, who even though they are just a few games out, may not make a move as Sabean has said "They have to play well for me to trade for someone to help out".

Apparently the Giants have played so bad that Sabean brought on Uggla to punish them.
   6. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 30, 2014 at 08:18 PM (#4760947)
Cameron over identifies with baseball management.
   7. bobm Posted: July 30, 2014 at 08:46 PM (#4760975)
How about June 6th at 6 p.m.?
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: July 30, 2014 at 08:49 PM (#4760978)
Nice little article where he details the history of the trade deadline, and puts forth an argument to change it, in effect arguing that the trade deadline has never been sacrosanct. And pointing out that it's not really a deadline anyway, as he feels guys like Cliff Lee, Papelbon , Kemp and other big contracts will still be traded in August as they should clear waivers.

He argues that the current deadline isn't enough time for teams to determine if they are in the pennant race or sellers, since there is more parity in the league and more playoff spots. Which is a fine argument, but not one I agree with. I don't think the trade deadline should be about contending teams boosting their rosters etc. But about teams having their rosters set for a significant part of the season. I like the fact that most players on the team in the post season are major contributors to the success of the team and having been with them for a long enough time to be established as their identity.

If anything, I would argue moving the deadline earlier(as post 2 suggests, although I would put it 7-10 days after the all-star break) and even modifying the non-waiver deadline and eligibility for the playoff roster to July 31st... after that, you can still make the trade, but if the player wasn't in your system by then, they are not eligible for post season play.

   9. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 08:58 PM (#4760983)
The trade deadline generates tremendous fan interest and MLB would do well to protect that. Moving it back to August 15 or so might be OK, but no further; it should be kept before everyone gets distracted by NFL training camp.
   10. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: July 30, 2014 at 09:18 PM (#4760990)

(not broke, don't fix)
   11. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: July 30, 2014 at 10:01 PM (#4761016)
#7. Brilliant, but I'm afraid it's been missed.
   12. zonk Posted: July 30, 2014 at 10:57 PM (#4761055)
Actually, I think I agree with Cameron.

The wildcard alone - now, let alone two - just means that the old dynamics about who is a contender just don't work anymore.

If it were my choice, I think I'd rather go back to just one WC, but I have no problem moving the deadline back.
   13. madvillain Posted: July 30, 2014 at 11:04 PM (#4761058)
The wildcard alone - now, let alone two - just means that the old dynamics about who is a contender just don't work anymore.

Yea everyone should RTFA it's way better than the excerpt. I mentioned this in the other thread tangentially about Cameron, he does have some good fresh ideas once and awhile because he really does love baseball. He's softened a bit with age, but don't we all.
   14. cardsfanboy Posted: July 30, 2014 at 11:06 PM (#4761060)
Actually, I think I agree with Cameron.

The wildcard alone - now, let alone two - just means that the old dynamics about who is a contender just don't work anymore.

If it were my choice, I think I'd rather go back to just one WC, but I have no problem moving the deadline back.

The article isn't bad, but as I said I don't agree with it, because I don't think the trade deadline should be about refreshing teams for the stretch run. The longer trade deadline penalizes teams with more depth in my opinion.

I just don't see a purpose for a team to be composed one way for 110+ games then all the sudden be reconfigured for the last 50 games.
   15. Swedish Chef Posted: July 31, 2014 at 04:39 AM (#4761106)
I've never seen the point of the waiver period, it's just strange.

   16. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 31, 2014 at 07:07 AM (#4761111)
I wouldn't want it later than it is. I think teams having to struggle with these decisions is a feature, not a bug.
   17. bigglou115 Posted: July 31, 2014 at 08:49 AM (#4761126)
@14. See, I'm the opposite. Something in the original plan for every team is going to go wrong. A trade may be the only way to fix it, and sometimes that means waiting on the deadline. I like to see who can fix those holes that way because trading is just another set of strategic decisions that management has to make. Aside from that, seeing a team pull off a good or great trade and go from marginal contender to a real threat is one of life's great joys. It's rare, but worth it. I want the trade deadline to be what it has been for the one wild card era, and if that means pushing it back then that's what they should do.

I do wonder, I have to be motivated to read Cameron, (even yesterday he posted an article about how everybody was wrong about Taveras except him). Does he make mention of the fact that borderline contenders will be less likely to try to add pieces with less season left? I mean, almost no traded player would be worth much more than 1 WAR over a month right? Seems that by moving it back you'd limit trades to teams looking to add pieces specifically for the playoffs, so I'm not sure July 31 or thereabouts wouldn't stay the de facto deadline for most teams anyway.
   18. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 31, 2014 at 04:05 PM (#4761839)
I remain unconvinced by his argument. Sure, things have changed in MLB. But his reasoning is not persuasive.

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