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Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Can Brady Aiken save career from being worst MLB draft bust of all time?

A reminder that for most of the guys drafted yesterday, that first check is the only real money that they’ll make out of baseball.

Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: June 04, 2019 at 04:44 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, draft, indians, tinstaapp

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   1. bookbook Posted: June 04, 2019 at 05:52 PM (#5848430)
Brady Aiken has to get in line for that title.
   2. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: June 04, 2019 at 05:57 PM (#5848433)
Doesn’t Danny Goodwin have that one pretty much wrapped up?
   3. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: June 04, 2019 at 05:58 PM (#5848434)
Brien Taylor?
   4. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: June 04, 2019 at 06:29 PM (#5848447)
Doesn’t Danny Goodwin have that one pretty much wrapped up?


Man, when you're 3rd-most-similar batter is Don Larsen ...

But Goodwin at least made the bigs. Taylor got to Class AA. Aiken so far has stalled out at Class A.
   5. Adam Starblind Posted: June 04, 2019 at 08:55 PM (#5848490)
Matt Bush went to prison.
   6. Random Transaction Generator Posted: June 05, 2019 at 06:46 AM (#5848561)
Matt Bush at least ended up with positive bWAR (2.6) over three seasons in his career.
   7. bfan Posted: June 05, 2019 at 07:56 AM (#5848566)
all 4 overall number one draft choices who did not make the MLB are pitchers-is that a hint?
   8. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 05, 2019 at 08:48 AM (#5848572)
all 4 overall number one draft choices who did not make the MLB are pitchers-is that a hint?

this guy says hello
   9. winnipegwhip Posted: June 05, 2019 at 08:59 AM (#5848573)
I once had a conversation with a then Yankee scout in the winter of 1991-92. I asked him about Taylor and his opinion was about any player. "If he makes the majors he is worth signing for $1 million. If he doesn't make the majors, he isn't worth a dollar in bonus."

This scout also lamented how he was so disappointed that his best signing ever ended up getting traded to Cincinnati. He felt that was the best player he ever signed. The player he was talking about was Hal Morris. That scout was Dick Groch. Little did I know at the time he was following the player that would define his scouting career.
   10. winnipegwhip Posted: June 05, 2019 at 09:01 AM (#5848574)
#8

I would have said Chilcott is on the list but his career was derailed by injuries and therefore I give that a pass then.
   11. Rally Posted: June 05, 2019 at 09:53 AM (#5848591)
I'm not even sure Aiken is the worst 1-1 overall pitcher picked by the Astros with a last name starting with A. Sure, Appel did make it to AAA, but he's now retired. Aiken can pass him by just getting enough things right to make it to the big leagues for a cup of coffee.
   12. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 05, 2019 at 10:16 AM (#5848597)
I would have said Chilcott is on the list but his career was derailed by injuries and therefore I give that a pass then.


That's true for most of these guys, including Brien Taylor and Aiken. What's different about Aiken is that he destroyed his arm before he even made it to professional baseball.

Even Appel had a bone spur in his elbow and ran into shoulder issues, although he didn't look on track to make the majors even before the injuries set in, whereas someone like Brien Taylor was actually good in the minors before he got hurt.
   13. Spahn Insane Posted: June 05, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5848598)
Even Appel had a bone spur in his elbow and ran into shoulder issues, although he didn't look on track to make the majors even before the injuries set in,

Right--once his pro career started, he really never looked like anything resembling a major league starter, let alone a front of a rotation guy. He's about as big a bust as you can be at #1 overall, especially coming out of a major college program and having been drafted in the top 10 the year prior. It's not like he was some guy who came out of nowhere and was just overrated based on a single good year (and/or being part of a weak draft class); he was a well established blue chip prospect even before his senior year. Aiken you can at least say "TINSTAAPP, especially a high schooler." Appel went from #8 overall pick to #1 overall pick to a guy who struggled to get minor league hitters out almost seamlessly.
   14. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 05, 2019 at 10:58 AM (#5848614)
The Rockies took a high school pitcher named Riley Pint fourth overall in 2016, and he has been just dreadful, with a 6.84 career ERA and almost unfathomable 3-20 W-L record, despite not ever getting out of A ball. They moved him to the bullpen this year, which hasn't helped any, since he has a 8.79 ERA and has walked 25 guys in 14.1 innings.

The Rockies had a horrible record of taking bust pitchers in the first round (Greg Reynolds, Tyler Matzek, Christian Friedrich) before they came up with Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland in 2013-2014. But Pint looks like the worst one of all.
   15. bfan Posted: June 05, 2019 at 12:26 PM (#5848643)
and almost unfathomable 3-20 W-L record


Minor league starters with bad control have a unique ability to pile up terrible won-loss records because they often bump into their pitch count before they get to 5 innings, so they can almost never win, but can easily leave a game behind in the score and lose, no matter how short their appearance is.
   16. DCA Posted: June 05, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5848723)
I just peeked at the 1966 draft (Chilcott/Jackson).

Chilcott had more WAR than the entire second round combined!

Three cups of coffee (Gary Timberlake, Jim Minshall, John Gamble) totaling -0.2 WAR
Johnny Oates - no hit catcher (3.3 WAR)
Darrel Chaney - no hit / poor glove infielder (-3.4 WAR)
   17. Walt Davis Posted: June 05, 2019 at 05:13 PM (#5848733)
Let's not forget the trio of Augie Schmidt, Jimmy Jones and Bryan Delkers. (at least 2 of whom I never could have named.)

And don't we have to give this one to Danny Goodwin -- #1 overall pick twice (four years apart) and still negative WAR for his career. Excellent minor-league hitter though -- 308/400/518 in 2500+ AAA PA and 327/431/531 in 800+ at AA.
   18. cardsfanboy Posted: June 05, 2019 at 08:21 PM (#5848773)
he's 22... he's not going to be a hofer obviously now... but he's still not out of the possibility of making the majors somewhere down the line. He's left handed which gives him an edge up in the reliever situation (although new rules might hurt that going forward)

Still plenty of good pitchers didn't show up to the majors at 22...


   19. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: June 05, 2019 at 09:40 PM (#5848795)
Even Appel had a bone spur in his elbow and ran into shoulder issues, although he didn't look on track to make the majors even before the injuries set in, whereas someone like Brien Taylor was actually good in the minors before he got hurt.


I go back and forth on Taylor. Like #10, I tend to give career-derailing injuries a pass on the "bust question", on the other hand, when said injury occurred in a *bar fight* ...
   20. base ball chick Posted: June 05, 2019 at 10:51 PM (#5848876)
mark appel was dreadful from the day he was drafted. he pitched like crap at every level. he was advanced through levels even though he was far worse than other guys, ONLY because of his draft status. bo porter had the effrontery to tell the FO that the emperor had no clothes and that got his ass on the chop

appel wasn't hurt, he wasn't ever any good. he had no more bidness in AAA than i do
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 06, 2019 at 01:16 AM (#5848904)
whereas someone like Brien Taylor was actually good in the minors before he got hurt.
Does 102 walks in 163 innings in AA qualify as good?
   22. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 06, 2019 at 01:23 AM (#5848905)
So I was curious as to what happened to Brien Taylor and just looked it up - I somehow was completely unaware that he ended up going to jail for coke dealing. What a sad story.
   23. Rally Posted: June 06, 2019 at 07:56 AM (#5848931)
Does 102 walks in 163 innings in AA qualify as good?


The year before that he pitched 161 innings in the FSL, 66 walks, 187 K, 2.57 ERA. That was good.

That was his first exposure to pro ball. Quite bit older than the typical high school draft pick though, 19.5 on draft day, 20 for his first pro season.
   24. Spahn Insane Posted: June 06, 2019 at 05:21 PM (#5849214)
14:

I actually saw Pint pitch in the Under Armour high school all America game at Wrigley a few years ago. He looked OK then in that extremely small sample against (high level) high school competition. Looks like things aren't going so well for him lately.
   25. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: June 06, 2019 at 08:12 PM (#5849256)
Still plenty of good pitchers didn't show up to the majors at 22...


Sure, but Aiken is in A ball and he sucks. I think "good pitcher" ain't in the cards.
   26. Rally Posted: June 07, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5849311)
"Good pitcher" might not be in the cards but he still might go to the bullpen, show some ability to strike out lefties, get called up, and then sent back down after showing no control in 3-5 innings. If he does that, he'll be forever known as a "former Major League Pitcher" and therefore beats Appel and Taylor.

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