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Sunday, February 26, 2017

Can Bud Black break the curse of Coors Field for Colorado Rockies pitchers?

Backing those words with their checkbook will be important as well.

Against that daunting backdrop, Black and Bridich agree that an aggressive mindset is vital in slaying the Coors Field monster.

“On top of talent, we need mentally tough SOBs,’’ Black said. “We have to find and draft guys who are resilient, who’ll bounce back from a tough outing where it might get chaotic in Coors and their ERA takes a hit. It might get a little bit unsightly when it pops up on the scoreboard or on TV. We have to have guys who will overlook that individual line—who truly don’t care about that.’‘

Jim Furtado Posted: February 26, 2017 at 07:47 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rockies

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   1. shoewizard Posted: February 26, 2017 at 09:27 AM (#5408899)
Agree with intro commentary Jim

Define what success means for a pitcher at coors field numerically and let them know they will be compensated for achieving that success.

Offer good buyouts with plenty of guaranteed bucks to the guys they think have "the right stuff" to be successful in Coors field.

   2. shoewizard Posted: February 26, 2017 at 10:26 AM (#5408907)
I think the simplest way to deal with this is for the team to start using park adjusted metrics IN PUBLIC when discussing their team. This includes on the broadcast, when giving interviews, and of course in private as well.

The history of the rockies shows that when you adjust for park effects, their pitching has actually been above average more than their hitting.

The Rockies since 1993 have 7 seasons where their team ERA- was below 100, but only 5 seasons where wRC+ was above 94. (NL League avg wRC+ usually around 94 or 95).

Jerry Crasnick is a good baseball writer, but he is using RAW UNADJUSTED ERA to discuss Rockies pitchers. It's just too difficult to mentally adjust what the ERA really means, and it's useless to use unadjusted metrics when talking about the rockies, in ANY context.

The Rockies vaunted offense that everyone thinks is so great had a 92 wRC+ last year. It's just not as good as everyone thinks it is.

During the Rockies most successful period, 2007-2010 they had 3 seasons where the team ERA- was among the better teams in the league (90-92-91 in 07, 09, 10, But 2008 wasn't very good)

So if I'm the Rockies, I simply tell my pitchers they will be evaluated based on ERA- , FIP -, etc, and to just forget about ERA.

And to back that up, I make the broadcast booth talk about ERA- and wRC+ , A LOT. Traditionalists be damned.



   3. shoewizard Posted: February 26, 2017 at 10:29 AM (#5408908)
Here are the links for the Rockies ERA- and wRC+ throughout their existence

ERA-

wRC+

Amazing the team best wRC+ in their history is 97, NEVER ONCE OVER 100.......yet everyone is always talking about the Rockies Offense.

   4. PreservedFish Posted: February 26, 2017 at 11:25 AM (#5408920)
shoewizard, that is fascinating and surprising and I don't really get it. Look at the 2007 Rockies. One would think that the offense led by Todd Helton, Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki would be superior to the pitching led by Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook and Manny Corpas. In fact the bench was brutal and the bullpen was very good, and I guess that tips the balance? But it's still nuts that the team has NEVER had an above average offense. Tough not to be skeptical about that factoid. Are there still important Coors field park factor problems?
   5. shoewizard Posted: February 26, 2017 at 11:44 AM (#5408922)
League avg offense in the NL is wRC+94, so as mentioned above, they have had 5 seasons with above average.

It's different than OPS+

I mentioned the above 100 not as marker vs. avg, but to say they've never ever had a GREAT offense.

here is 2016 team NL wRC+ Cubs 106, Cardinals 104 were the best in NL last year

and here you can see NL League avg wRC+ since 1993

   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 26, 2017 at 11:55 AM (#5408929)
So if I'm the Rockies, I simply tell my pitchers they will be evaluated based on ERA- , FIP -, etc, and to just forget about ERA.

And to back that up, I make the broadcast booth talk about ERA- and wRC+ , A LOT. Traditionalists be damned.


I'd even go further. I wouldn't even put ERA on the scoreboard, only ERA+, or ERA-. If the broadcasters work for the team, I wouldn't allow them to discuss raw pitching stats w/o also presenting the adjusted numbers.
   7. shoewizard Posted: February 26, 2017 at 11:56 AM (#5408931)
Great point about the scoreboard Snapper.

People would freak out for a year, but then get used to it.

And nobody is going to stop coming to the ballpark because they put that on the scoreboard.

   8. shoewizard Posted: February 26, 2017 at 12:00 PM (#5408934)
By the way, Fangraphs even updates the ERA- and wRC+ in game at the top of each player's page.

So in game changes can be reflected as well
   9. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 26, 2017 at 02:29 PM (#5408984)
Agree with intro commentary Jim

Define what success means for a pitcher at coors field numerically and let them know they will be compensated for achieving that success.


and tell the hitters the same thing going in the opposite direction
   10. Walt Davis Posted: February 26, 2017 at 09:36 PM (#5409149)
Pancake flops on the scoreboard -- that'll keep everybody focused on what matters!

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