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Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Cardinals trade for Marcell Ozuna of Marlins

The Cardinals have been viewed as the frontrunners to land Ozuna, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, and a possible deal is expected to include two of the three of pitching prospects Jack Flaherty (St. Louis’ No. 3 prospect, according to MLBPipeline.com), Dakota Hudson (No. 8) and Sandy Alcantara (No. 9), in addition to a replacement in the outfield in either Stephen Piscotty or Randal Grichuk.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:02 PM | 69 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals, marcell ozuna, marlins

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   1. fra paolo Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:37 PM (#5591955)
Is this the passing of the Last Chance of a fanbase for MLB in South Florida? Do the taxpayers of Miami-Dade have a Big Owe of their own?

I can imagine the cries of outrage on the local sports radio from all those who celebrated the end of Mr Loria's Reign of Penury.
   2. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:47 PM (#5591963)
Joel Sherman‏ @Joelsherman1 14m14 minutes ago

Alcantara is big piece going to #Marlins in 4-player package, hear other 3 are minor leaguers of less ilk #Stlcards


Jon Heyman @JonHeyman 21m21 minutes ago

an a's trade for stephen piscotty from cardinals is "edging closer" via @susanslusser. @Ken_Rosenthal connected those 2 teams earlier.
   3. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 13, 2017 at 02:52 PM (#5591969)
Fair trade for both teams and perfectly reasonable given where they are in their respective success cycles.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 03:03 PM (#5591980)
And the Marlins have supposedly put Yelich on the block too. He's got a five-year, team friendly deal. Shows you how long the Marlins plan to suck, and reap unearned profits from the rest of the league. What a joke.

Is this the passing of the Last Chance of a fanbase for MLB in South Florida? Do the taxpayers of Miami-Dade have a Big Owe of their own?

I think so.
   5. Worrierking Posted: December 13, 2017 at 03:07 PM (#5591983)
The Cardinals have become the worst team in MLB at selling high and buying low. I like Ozuna, but he just had a career year and his price is steep while dealing Piscotty at his lowest point (Diaz too) is just infuriating. Haven't any of the Redbirds staff played fantasy football? This stuff isn't hard to learn.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 03:08 PM (#5591985)
Fair trade for both teams and perfectly reasonable given where they are in their respective success cycles.

Seriously? Alcantara is the Cards 9th best prospect, and not even in the top-100.

That's the headliner for a 26 y.o. who just had a 5+ win season? The Marlins got fleeced again.
   7. fra paolo Posted: December 13, 2017 at 03:25 PM (#5592000)
And the Marlins have supposedly put Yelich on the block too.

There have been quick, unsourced denials of this.

To my mind, in their circumstances the Marlins should have traded EITHER Stanton OR Yelich and Ozuna. Trading all three would be a travhisamockery.

They must be very much in love with Alcantara, and disappointed Stanton turned the Cards down, though.
   8. Sleepy's not going to blame himself Posted: December 13, 2017 at 03:47 PM (#5592016)
That's the headliner for a 26 y.o. who just had a 5+ win season? The Marlins got fleeced again.
Plus he hit 10, 23, and 37 home runs the last three years, putting him on pace for 50 next year!

Kidding. I'm excited about this deal, but if it's what is described in the excerpt, it's a huge overpay. Would have much rather have gotten Yelich in return though.
   9. Boxkutter Posted: December 13, 2017 at 04:08 PM (#5592035)
The Marlins fans must feel right at home. It's like Loria never left!

Actually wait... at least when Loria traded away his stars, he got decent returns for them. If Alcantara and Grichuk are the headliners in the return package, this will make three trades in a row that Jeter got ###### on. Hope he's at least getting gift baskets.
   10. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 13, 2017 at 04:25 PM (#5592049)
Dakota Hudson

How is this not a young actress?
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2017 at 05:08 PM (#5592081)
Alcantara was well desired by the Marlins, they probably rate him in the top 100 even if the publications out there don't. And if he has a healthy season this upcoming year,(and in the minors) he probably would have broken into the top 100.

I like this deal, we kept O'neil and Bader (along with a slew of other guys that I want to keep for now) got a guy coming off a career year of course, but it was also his age 26 season so there is reason to be optimistic about his most recent year. I'm still hoping for movement on the Fowler front, his defense is just too crappy to keep running him out there everyday in center. I like his bat of course, and as a spot fill in at center, sure, but he has no more reason to be an everyday centerfielder than Adam Jones. He is more than likely not the impact bat that the team was hoping for, in that he's not guaranteed to be a 30 hr guy with over a 130 ops+.

I was pretty confident that during this off season, that the Cardinals would probably jettison Piscotty, Diaz, Grichuk and Gyorko(or outside chance of it being Wong instead) the team has too many "slightly above average players with flashes of excellence, but no guarantee" guys that it just make sense to let another team take a chance with them. Piscotty has the highest ceiling of that group though, so it's going to tough to see him get traded for a middling reliever. (I mean, does Oakland even have any major league players?)

   12. RMc's Unenviable Situation Posted: December 13, 2017 at 05:36 PM (#5592105)
And the Marlins have supposedly put Yelich on the block too.

Ichiro! Come back! All is forgiven!
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 06:16 PM (#5592133)

Kidding. I'm excited about this deal, but if it's what is described in the excerpt, it's a huge overpay. Would have much rather have gotten Yelich in return though.


Overpay? Your 9th (Alcantara) and 13th (Gallen) prospects, neither in anyone's top 100, plus a guy who didn't crack your top-30, for a young OF with a 145 OPS+ and a gold glove?

Marlins got robbed here.
   14. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2017 at 06:39 PM (#5592146)
Overpay?


Not that I agree with the overpay comment, but I think the issue is including Grichuk or Piscotty in the deal. If the final deal doesn't include them, then it would be hard to argue this as an overpay, but if it includes Piscotty or Grichuk, along with prospects, it might be arguable to call it an overpay. I'm happy with this deal, so don't think that I think it's an overpay..
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2017 at 07:18 PM (#5592160)
(oops. I said "hard to argue this" when I meant to say it's "possible to argue this" in my previous post...too late to edit)
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 07:30 PM (#5592163)
Not that I agree with the overpay comment, but I think the issue is including Grichuk or Piscotty in the deal. If the final deal doesn't include them, then it would be hard to argue this as an overpay, but if it includes Piscotty or Grichuk, along with prospects, it might be arguable to call it an overpay. I'm happy with this deal, so don't think that I think it's an overpay..

Maybe, but there are no reports that they are in the deal.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2017 at 07:56 PM (#5592174)
Maybe, but there are no reports that they are in the deal.


The Excerpt posted at the top of this thread said this....

The Cardinals have been viewed as the frontrunners to land Ozuna, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, and a possible deal is expected to include two of the three of pitching prospects Jack Flaherty (St. Louis’ No. 3 prospect, according to MLBPipeline.com), Dakota Hudson (No. 8) and Sandy Alcantara (No. 9), in addition to a replacement in the outfield in either Stephen Piscotty or Randal Grichuk.


I think that is what Sleepy was reacting to. Personally I don't care about us giving up either, even though both of them intrigue me, but I'm hoping that Flaherty isn't actually in the deal (I don't care at all about Hudson, so of course that means he'll be the one becoming an all star)
   18. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 07:58 PM (#5592178)
snapper is the only person that's making sense here.
   19. Sunday silence Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:09 PM (#5592185)
Knocking a guy for having a career year at age 26 is kind of weird..
   20. ptodd Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:17 PM (#5592192)
Another gift but thats Jeters calling card.

Boras has it right

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21757735/seen-one-our-major-league-jewelry-stores-become-pawn-shop
   21. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:23 PM (#5592196)
This is a dogshit trade for the Marlins, far more than the Stanton one. If I were a Florida baseball fan, I'd be buying a Rays hat about now.
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:28 PM (#5592200)
Knocking a guy for having a career year at age 26 is kind of weird..


I wasn't knocking him for it...just mentioning it. (sure worrierking in post 5 pointed it out first, but I think it was more a post to bag on the Cardinals front office needlessly than any real criticism.)
   23. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:32 PM (#5592203)
This is the trade as reported by MLB.com

"In exchange for Ozuna, the Cardinals will send outfielder Magneuris Sierra and pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and Daniel Castano to the Marlins, who had been heavily scouting and evaluating St. Louis' system during the clubs' discussions about Stanton. "
   24. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:39 PM (#5592205)
Official trade seems to be Alcantara, Magnerius Sierra, Gallen and Castano.... that trade doesn't look nearly as good as the trade that was rumored in the opening comments of this thread. Sierra is probably the fastest man in major league baseball last season, and a gold glove quality centerfielder who actually gets what he offers as a hitter and player, but he's probably only going to be about a 2-3 war player at his peak, but he should be a major league average player for close to 5-7 years. (and a guy that the fans will love) (I've never even heard of Gallen or Castano)
   25. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:41 PM (#5592207)
who had been heavily scouting and evaluating St. Louis' system during the clubs' discussions about Stanton

"Hey boss, how am I supposed to evaluate these other offers? Should I just, like, google the names?"
"Why reinvent the wheel? We spent all that time on the Cardinals system, let's just make the deal with them."
   26. Zonk, Genius of the Stables Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:48 PM (#5592209)
"In exchange for Ozuna, the Cardinals will send outfielder Magneuris Sierra and pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and Daniel Castano to the Marlins, who had been heavily scouting and evaluating St. Louis' system during the clubs' discussions about Stanton. "


Blech. I think that's an awful trade for the Marlins.... and as a fan of a Cardinals competitor (to put it mildly), I am not a big of the Cardinals pulling off a heist.

Sierra's upside is Juan Pierre with a better arm (but clankier glove).... yeah, yeah, yeah - insert the "NO - he'll hit for power! To the gaps! Some day!".

I like Alcantara as a nice sleeper prospect, but he's a guy you haggle for as a toss-in (maybe sending another spare part from your end, if it costs that). Castano? A 23 yo that had a nice year at shortseason ball because he didn't walk people. Yippee. Gallen's a future reliever - perhaps a nifty one of the setup variety - but still.

The Jeterlins are just awful.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:51 PM (#5592211)
Another gift but thats Jeters calling card.

Boras has it right


When Boras is the voice of reason, you know things are effed up.
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:54 PM (#5592214)
Like just about everybody else here, I don't really love that package for the Marlins.
   29. Zonk, Genius of the Stables Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:03 PM (#5592217)
Swap Flaherty for either of two non-Alcantara pitchers and I'd like the deal.

Of course - most trades look a lot different if you can swap in a top 50 overall prospect.

They probably still need more pitching -- or for Reyes to make it back quicker than a pitcher usually does from TJS -- but the Cardinals have suddenly made themselves a real NLC concern, if they weren't already.

Adding a 5.8 WAR player without actually giving up your best chits? I don't like that at all.
   30. JJ1986 Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:08 PM (#5592222)
I'm going to predict right now that Gallen ends up the best piece of the package. And I don't like Gallen that much.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:08 PM (#5592223)
Swap Flaherty for either of two non-Alcantara pitchers and I'd like the deal.

Of course - most trades look a lot different if you can swap in a top 50 overall prospect.


Who would have bet that a team could trade 2 players who put up 7.6 and 5.8 bWAR, at ages 27 and 26 respectively, and not get a single top-100 prospect in return?
   32. Sleepy's not going to blame himself Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:15 PM (#5592225)
for a young OF with a 145 OPS+ and a gold glove?
For two years of control, and that 145 OPS+ brought his career OPS+ all the way up to 114. The rumor was Piscotty or Grichuk plus two pitchers possibly including Flaherty. Piscotty is also 26, has six years of control for just 22 million, plus a team option, and a career OPS+ of 109. He's not as good as Ozuna, and had a rough year (lots written about why) but he's a good bounce back candidate being paid peanuts.

If Piscotty and Flaherty had been included, along with Alcantara, it would have been a massive overpay.

The deal as announced is much better for STL of course.
   33. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:16 PM (#5592226)
Marcell Ozuna is projected to make almost as much as Derek Jeter is this year.
   34. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:20 PM (#5592227)
Like just about everybody else here, I don't really love that package for the Marlins.
I'd rather have Ozuna than all those new Marlins put together. I didn't need more reasons to hate Jeter, but I seem to be getting new ones daily.
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:21 PM (#5592228)
For two years of control, and that 145 OPS+ brought his career OPS+ all the way up to 114.


I agree with you on some points, but you are a bit too focused on the career year, and assuming it's a career year(at age 26), instead of it's more likely scenario an outlier year indicating true aging improvement. Meaning that it might have been in his 90 percentile, but that percentile indicates a true improvement, it's more likely he's now a 120 hitter than a 110 hitter, and possibly(if not probably) over 125 ops+ as a hitter for the next three years---assuming that he didn't exploit Marlins park.

Put it this way, Yadier Molina at his age 26 season put up a 100 ops+... that made his career ops+ an 82.....(he had 2458 pa at this point in time, Ozuna has 2684).... Over the next three years Yadier put up 116 ops+(and that is with an 84 ops+ season in there) This is what most people consider the evolution of a player as a hitter, and it's why a players peak is age 26-29(or 27-30 or whatever, roughly in that range)....the Cardinals just got a proven player capable of putting up a 145 ops+ season, who is entering his prime years for basically nothing.... Yes, I'm pretty happy with that deal.

   36. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:28 PM (#5592234)
This is the second deal in a row where the fans of the team seen fleecing the Marlins have seemed compelled to defend the trade from the Marlins' perspective. This happens in my DMB league, when one owner rips off another and then takes pains to explain why he didn't actually rip him off, that actually it was a fair deal. Today we see people focusing on whether or not it would have been fair if the Cardinals had included some actual, uh, good baseball players.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:32 PM (#5592237)
If Piscotty and Flaherty had been included, along with Alcantara, it would have been a massive overpay.

The deal as announced is much better for STL of course.


Right, but you quoted my post which clearly said Alcantara was the headliner, meaning Flaherty and Piscotty couldn't be included.
   38. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:33 PM (#5592239)
This is the second deal in a row where the fans of the team seen fleecing the Marlins have seemed compelled to defend the trade from the Marlins' perspective.

Just for the record, this Yankee fan doesn't defend the Stanton deal AT ALL. The Yankees flat out ripped the Marlins off.
   39. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:41 PM (#5592246)
Absolutely noted.
   40. Zonk, Genius of the Stables Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:17 PM (#5592260)
You know, I think the only way to make this fair is to give everyone a chance to fleece the Marlins.

We got next!
   41. kwarren Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:35 PM (#5592268)
(I mean, does Oakland even have any major league players?)

Olson, Chapman, Healy, Semien, Lowrie, Khris Davis, and a few relief pitchers probably fit the bill.

   42. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:47 PM (#5592277)
Ian Kinsler - 2 WAR last year after many consecutive years of 5+ WAR, and on a ####### sweetheart deal, 2 years, $22 million - is traded to the Angels for the 20th and 24th best prospects in a totally brutal system. This is some hell of a buyer's market.
   43. kwarren Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:48 PM (#5592278)
(I mean, does Oakland even have any major league players?)

Olson, Chapman, Healy, Semien, Lowrie, Khris Davis, and a few relief pitchers probably fit the bill.

Who would have bet that a team could trade 2 players who put up 7.6 and 5.8 bWAR, at ages 27 and 26 respectively, and not get a single top-100 prospect in return?

It's not about the prospects. Payroll reduction is how these deals are being evaluated.


The Marlins are the only major league to have never lost a playoff series (with two world championships to boot). Jeter is just doing his best to make sure that accomplishment holds up for a while longer.
   44. ptodd Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:13 PM (#5592285)
Funny, just thinking. Isnt it interesting that one of the first major moves by the new Dodger ownership was to bail out the Red Sox while the new owners of the Marlins first moves were to strengthen the Yankees and Cardinals.

Marlins of course are also suppressing the FA market which will drive down prices. All MLB owners applaud. The Dodgers spent money but basically did so with extensions to home grown players amd taken on contracts issued by other teams. They have not been huge FA spenders.

My take is the requirement to win a bid for ownership to the collusion club is a commitment to not drive up FA prices (or drive them down) and to help out key markets in the best interest of baseball, much like when the first AL President directed teams to offer their best players to NY for ten cents on the dollar.

As a result of the Stanton trade Harper may end up signing an extension to down to earth dollars. Orioles may just give up and start their own sell off along and join the sellers like the Tigers. Yankees will not be big players in the FA market for awhile given their farm and the Red Sox are in need of their own bail out again but of course not voting for Manfred in the first ballot makes them a lesser priority unlike when JWH was Buds golden boy.

Meanwhile Tony Clark is off somewhere sucking his thumb and insisting players share of revenue is not dropping.
   45. Sweatpants Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:19 PM (#5592288)
The Marlins are the only major league to have never lost a playoff series (with two world championships to boot). Jeter is just doing his best to make sure that accomplishment holds up for a while longer.
They're also one of only two extant MLB franchises (along with their expansionmates the Rockies) yet to have finished first. Of course, like you said, that didn't stop them from twice finishing as the top team in baseball when all was said and done.
   46. Walt Davis Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:22 PM (#5592291)
Not that we can ignore it, but I also give less weight to Ozuna's 2015. He started off badly then took some flak from management, squabbling ensued, he got sent down. Back in AAA he hit every well, got recalled in mid-Aug and hit 278/320/469 to end the season. Those numbers were a bit better than what he did for 2014 and 2016 suggesting (but obviously not proving) that the first half 2015 was just a fluke, probably not made better by Loria et al.

Last year did come out of nowhere but projection models, including simple Marcel, always expect some of the change to stick and weight accordingly. Marcel puts him on a 831 OPS which is well short of 2017 but substantially better than the rest of his career, about a 125 OPS+. And the total package has been pretty good albeit inconsistent -- 14 WAR in about 4 full seasons of PT. So about a 3.5-WAR player for his career, probably now closer to 4 to 4.5 WAR.
   47. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:28 PM (#5592294)
Marcel puts him on a 831 OPS


You have to figure it's biased though, huh?

No but seriously, Ozuna was known to have 40 HR potential when he was in the minors. People assumed that he would go the Wile E. Mo Pena direction, but he's making more than enough contact to be productive, and he's a pretty good athlete too. This is a great player.
   48. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 14, 2017 at 12:44 AM (#5592308)
"In exchange for Ozuna, the Cardinals will send outfielder Magneuris Sierra and pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and Daniel Castano to the Marlins, who had been heavily scouting and evaluating St. Louis' system during the clubs' discussions about Stanton. "

I thought Flaherty was going to be part of the trade when I posted initially. This package is indeed pretty meh. It's hard to imagine that there wasn't at least one team able and willing to beat it, even if you accept the premise that the Marlins absolutely needed to move Ozuna for payroll reasons.
   49. fra paolo Posted: December 14, 2017 at 08:54 AM (#5592339)
even if you accept the premise that the Marlins absolutely needed to move Ozuna for payroll reasons

I was thinking about the Marlins' predicament this morning and concluded that the commentary has been too focused on payroll and not enough on the dire thin-ness of the farm system.

In the deals for Gordon, Stanton and Ozuna the Marlins have got back about eight prospects. I wouldn't be surprised if all eight of them slotted immediately into the top 15 Marlins' prospects, and it might be they all go into the top 10.

This kind of prospect haul will probably raise their farm system from 30th to somewhere in the mid 20s.

The Marlins aren't very active in the international market, and under the Beinfest/Hill administration had a penchant for toolsy high-school players that leads to a lot of busts (the heavyweight belt probably soon to be taken by the Six Million Dollar Boy, Tyler Kolek).

This is the way Mr Loria was running the Expos, and the MLB Expos had a top-heavy farm system dominated by pre-Loria investment that got even thinner under Omar Minaya, and directly contributed to 100-loss seasons for the Nationals.

Even before Sherman's Burning of Miami, the Marlins were courting a fanbase-wrecking run of 100-loss seasons as the stars faded and the real nature of their successors would come into view. They've accelerated the process, but to their (limited) credit they've taken control of it.

Now, I wouldn't have done it like this, and it oh-so-conveniently suppresses the prices on the free-agent market, but there is at least a smidgen of baseball sense on show here.
   50. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:26 AM (#5592382)
I think the headline and excerpt above need to be edited to reflect the actual deal. This thread makes for some confusing reading...
   51. fra paolo Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:29 AM (#5592387)
Apparently the Marlins are listening to offers for Yelich, but not actively shopping him.
   52. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:37 AM (#5592398)
I was thinking about the Marlins' predicament this morning and concluded that the commentary has been too focused on payroll and not enough on the dire thin-ness of the farm system.

In the deals for Gordon, Stanton and Ozuna the Marlins have got back about eight prospects. I wouldn't be surprised if all eight of them slotted immediately into the top 15 Marlins' prospects, and it might be they all go into the top 10.

This kind of prospect haul will probably raise their farm system from 30th to somewhere in the mid 20s.


So what? Eight mediocre prospects are going to generate what? Maybe one MLB regular and a couple of spare parts, if you're lucky.

That doesn't even move the needle on building a competitive team.

   53. Walt Davis Posted: December 14, 2017 at 05:41 PM (#5592912)
And you're giving up a guy who could have been putting butts in seats for the next 10 years to take your gamble on the lower-level prospects from better systems possibly helping you put butts in seats in 3-4 years, probably fewer than Stanton would have, and only as long as Stanton would have been around. Then you trade Ozuna for some guys who will probably produce less value in their entire control period than Ozuna will in the next two years.

You never know, maybe the Marlins are a brilliant scouting organization and have uncovered guys outside the top 100 who are going to develop into 3-4 WAR players.

Way back in #9 is the claim that when Loria traded away the stars of the 2003 team, he at least got decent return for them. Let's look ...

Pudge and Castillo were FA, they re=signed Castillo.

Derrke Lee for Choi -- that's solid return but it didn't work out well.

Mark Redman for two un-rated prospects that did nothing.

Penny and Choi for LoDuca, Encarnacion and Mota -- interesting trade in retrospect. Marlins were still trying to compete.

2005:

Still trying to compete, they sign a number of "name" FAs coming towards the end -- Leiter, Moehler, Todd Jones, Alfonseca, Valdez.

And the big fish, Delgado.

During the season, they trade Lieter for nothing, pick up Villone for nothing.

2006:

Now it begins ...

Delgado for Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit. Jacobs had already been exposed but had some cachet left; Petit was a #50-60ish prospect. Petit would be traded within a year.

Beckett, Lowell and Mota for Hanley and Anibal Sanchez -- that's very good return.

Luis Castillo for nothing.

LoDuca for nothing.

Juan Pierre for Nolasco and other reasonable prospects ... dumb Cubs

2007: At this point, the only bits left to trade are the young stars Miggy, Hanley, Sanchez and the corpse of Dontrelle Willis. They got ML-quality talent back for Miggy after 2007 not that it did them any good (and obviously could never equal Miggy). They got Eovaldi back for Hanley -- a #70-100 prospect at the time, had his moments -- but that wasn't until 2012. Sanchez was also traded in 2012 for not much.

So they did OK, better than Huizenga did. But in the end, all the moves netted them just Hanley and Sanchez -- both excellent but not transformative. With Miggy, that would be a very nice core if they had followed that up with some great drafting/developing ... which they did OK it just didn't work out. They also didn't really throw in the towel until the Miggy trade after 2007.

The 2006 Marlins were a promising young team mostly due to their own players and other small pickups -- Uggla at 2B, Hanley (the big return), Miggy, Willingham, Hermida. A rotation of Willis, Scott Olsen (107 ERA+), Josh Johnson (a god with a fragile arm), Nolasco and Sanchez, none of them older than 24. In 2007, the lineup continues to produce but the rotation explodes -- Willis and Olsen tank, Johnson's arm blows up for the first time, Sanchez and Nolasco too.
   54. cardsfanboy Posted: December 14, 2017 at 06:42 PM (#5592941)
There is no way a Cardinal fan could find fault with this trade, after knowing the full details of the trade. The only "fault" of this trade is that it basically blocks Bader or O'Neil from having a chance to show what they can do.(and to a lesser extent Grichuk, but as of right now, he is just a fourth outfielder, which is nice to have a guy who is a plus fielder at all three outfield positions, who has plus power, as a bench guy.--he's also only 26 years old and has produced at 3.8 war per 650 pa in his career)

I'm still holding out hope that Fowler can be dealt, I'm not feeling confident of the rumored Pham at center, Ozuna in left, Fowler in right, although it's possible/probable that both of the corner guys would be extremely good defenders relative to average.... I just don't think Pham is anything other than average at best in center, sure it's a step up over Fowler in center, but still it's not what you want as a fan....still that looks like three outfielders putting up a 120+ ops+ while playing average or better defense, with the fourth outfielder(Grichuk) being 110 ops+ hitter and another plus defender, and Bader as the fifth which is another plus defender with potential hitting tools. (Jose Martinez is going to be the first baseman until he gets overmatched by scouting reports, but there is no reason to think he is starting the season anywhere other than the starting first baseman, with Carpenter once again making a defensive change to third.... I do wonder if Wong's arm is strong enough for third though, because Carpenter's defensive numbers at second have generally(going from memory, not actually looking it up) been better at second than third... Either way, Gyorko looks to be a 20 hr hitting(2 waa) utility player...
   55. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2017 at 07:56 PM (#5592975)
I just don't think Pham is anything other than average at best in center, sure it's a step up over Fowler in center, but still it's not what you want as a fan....

I'd be way more worried about Pham's hitting that his D. He had career high SLG at the same time he had a career high GB%.
   56. The Duke Posted: December 14, 2017 at 10:33 PM (#5593041)
I’m a cards fan and the two trades have to be taken together. If you do that, the cards are in a better place today than yesterday.

If you look at Ozuna trade alone, the marlins got a lot of controllable talent. At least three of those guys will give the marlins 6 cost-controlled years of above average performance . Sierra is VERY exciting defensively in CF. If he can figure out how to hit, that’s 6 years of a faster Ender Inciarte in a premium position. Gallen will be a solid back end starter and Alcantara could be a closer.

Marlins fans are going to love Sierra. Unbelievably quick on defense
   57. Sleepy's not going to blame himself Posted: December 15, 2017 at 02:42 AM (#5593075)
I'd be way more worried about Pham's hitting that his D. He had career high SLG at the same time he had a career high GB%.
He's not likely going to put up another 145 OPS+, but if he's finally fixed his eye problems, who knows. He might have a few years of magic in him.

And he had a 0.302 OPS on GB's, so it's not like that career high Gb% helped him any :)
   58. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 15, 2017 at 03:43 AM (#5593076)
...the marlins got a lot of controllable talent. At least three of those guys will give the marlins 6 cost-controlled years of above average performance . Sierra is VERY exciting defensively in CF. If he can figure out how to hit
I'll take the under on that. When I look at Sierra, I see Lance Johnson.
   59. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 15, 2017 at 09:52 AM (#5593122)
If you look at Ozuna trade alone, the marlins got a lot of controllable talent. At least three of those guys will give the marlins 6 cost-controlled years of above average performance .

Without knowing anything about the prospects beyond what I've seen in this thread, that has to be an overstatement. 6 years of above-average play would be around 18 WAR. Just one of the prospects (who aren't top-25 types) reaching that level, let alone three, would be a huge victory for Miami.
   60. The Duke Posted: December 15, 2017 at 10:43 AM (#5593168)
Well, the marlins appear to be completely rebuilding. All three are either major league ready or one year away(Sierra). I’m not sure what’s going to keep them from playing for a multiple year 100 loss team. Only question is whether they Are above average or not. I think they are. Not stars but good players
   61. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 15, 2017 at 11:20 AM (#5593218)
Well, the marlins appear to be completely rebuilding. All three are either major league ready or one year away(Sierra).

Yeah, but they're not very good. Not a single top-100 prospect in the bunch.
   62. The Duke Posted: December 15, 2017 at 11:16 PM (#5593615)
Those are good players. A lot of cardinals don’t show up on prospect screens. Sierra alone could be worth two years of Ozuna if he can make harder contact.
   63. Voodoo Posted: December 16, 2017 at 02:00 AM (#5593642)
I'll take the under on that. When I look at Sierra, I see Lance Johnson.


The under? Lance Johnson had nine seasons of above production, including years of 5 and 4 WAA. If Sierra turns into Lance Johnson and the Marlins get anything from the rest of the haul, they just might win this trade.
   64. cardsfanboy Posted: December 16, 2017 at 08:47 AM (#5593669)
I'll take the under on that. When I look at Sierra, I see Lance Johnson.


I see Billy Hamilton when looking at Sierra(the modern one, not the original one) Lance Johnson would be a huge oversell on Sierra. There is a reason that the centerpiece of this deal was Alcantara, his current rank on the prospect lists isn't where he is going to top out, and pretty much everyone knows that, he was heading on the same path that Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes were. Providing he doesn't get injured, there is good reason to expect him to be an above average starter at least two of those cost controlled seasons, and probably more than that.

Mind you, both of these guys are guys that the Cardinals can afford to give up, and neither is a certainty, and yes the Cardinals clearly "won" on the trade, but I do think the Marlins got a couple of players who will be useful major league starters and are cost controlled for several years.
   65. PreservedFish Posted: December 16, 2017 at 09:57 AM (#5593675)
I said this three days ago:
This is the second deal in a row where the fans of the team seen fleecing the Marlins have seemed compelled to defend the trade from the Marlins' perspective. This happens in my DMB league, when one owner rips off another and then takes pains to explain why he didn't actually rip him off, that actually it was a fair deal.


And it's still happening. Duke and cfb instruct the rest of us on "cost controlled" players. Thanks guys.
   66. cardsfanboy Posted: December 16, 2017 at 11:38 AM (#5593690)

And it's still happening. Duke and cfb instruct the rest of us on "cost controlled" players. Thanks guys.


You're welcome, glad to be of service.

Of course we are just pointing out that they aren't bad players, this silly focusing on players only in the top 100 really doesn't do them justice. Of course the Marlins "lost" on this trade, especially considering that they didn't get Flaherty and Grichuk like the original excerpt thought was part of the deal. But they have more than likely gotten two major league starting quality players. I don't think Sierra is going to be an all star or anything, but as the fastest man in major league baseball, he'll be someone exciting for the fans to watch, and will probably be able to generate close to 2 war with just his speed and defense. (ala Billy Hamilton) Drawback is that he isn't a good base stealer even with all that speed. So he'll either have to develop that part of his game, or settle for being a 20-30 sb guy. Going to a team that won't be competitive could give him a chance to up his game at that. Alcantara might only have been our ninth best prospect, but those are ratings based upon current level of development. Alcantara is a bit raw, but has shown the ability to learn and has a higher upside than someone like Flaherty or Weaver. (Prospectus has Alcantara as the Cardinals 5th best prospect though and Sierra 3rd---with Flaherty 4th, ahead of Bader and O'neil)
   67. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2017 at 11:39 AM (#5593691)
There is a reason that the centerpiece of this deal was Alcantara, his current rank on the prospect lists isn't where he is going to top out, and pretty much everyone knows that, he was heading on the same path that Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes were. Providing he doesn't get injured, there is good reason to expect him to be an above average starter at least two of those cost controlled seasons, and probably more than that.

You could say this about literally every good stuff, poor control and results, pitcher in the upper minors. 19 out of 20 of them never even have a single above average season as a SP.

Alcantara is a non-top 100 prospect who just putt up a 4.31 ERA in AA. The Marlins got fleeced.
   68. Walt Davis Posted: December 18, 2017 at 07:28 PM (#5594761)
he was heading on the same path that Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes were.

Alex Reyes made BPro's top 100 at age 19; he made BA (#51) and BPro (#55) at age 20 and top 10 on both at age 21. (For some reason he didn't make MLB until this past year)

Carlos Martinez was #27-31 on BA, BPro and MLB at age 20. He repeated at that level at age 21.

Alcantara just finished his age 21 season having been ranked only by BPro at #40.

It's a bit much to say he's been on the same path as those two. Their talent and potential was recognized early on. Alcantara did make the majors last year, same age as those two but that's the only real similarity in their development paths.

There's clearly potential there and I suspect he is top 100 as we speak but he clearly hasn't been impressing folks all that much before now. Barring injury, he's likely to get a shot and keep getting them at least until he hits arb. So, barring injury, he'll probably be at least as good as Sergio Mitre. :-) ... I'd forgotten all about him until the other day when I was looking at the second Marlins fire sale.
   69. Sunday silence Posted: December 19, 2017 at 01:56 AM (#5594882)
Since we're talking Cardinals here, does anyone know what happened to Gyorko last year? His numbers really tailed off in July, ba 208 slug 325 after going .300/500+ the first half of last year.

Was he injured or something?

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