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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Cardinals, Wainwright Agree on 5-Year Extension

The five-year, $97.5 million deal will run from 2014 through 2018, when Wainwright will turn 37.

My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 27, 2013 at 08:25 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals

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   1. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 28, 2013 at 07:02 AM (#4398190)
The Cards are putting a lot of faith into his health.

The guy is coming off of an okay season a year after TJ surgery.



   2. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: March 28, 2013 at 08:56 AM (#4398236)
Wow... I don't think I'd do that deal.

Wainwright's 2012 line looks like his peripherals -- HR/K/BB rates at least -- were right in line with what he was pre-TJ... but his H/9 were up (random variance?) and the end result was a pretty meh year. This is near ace money for a pitcher I'm not sure is or will be an ace again.

However, he's a Cardinal so I have no doubt he'll win two CYs and run over the dog I don't even have yet at some point in the next 5 years.
   3. salvomania Posted: March 28, 2013 at 10:12 AM (#4398326)
but his H/9 were up (random variance?) and the end result was a pretty meh year. This is near ace money for a pitcher I'm not sure is or will be an ace again.


Check out Wainwright's 1st/2nd half splits last year. He struggled over his 1st 16 starts (4.75 era, 1.34 WHIP, .753 OPS against), but over his second 16 starts was his old self (3.18 era, 1.18 WHIP, .650 OPS against).

Most pitchers recover nicely from TJ, and it looks like Wainwright will be his old self. The extension is for his age 32-36 seasons (he turns 37 the last month of the 2018 season) so it's not like this is paying a premium to be saddled with some years you don't expect to be productive (like a Pujols contract).

   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 28, 2013 at 11:47 AM (#4398425)
He's an elite pitcher and this is probably a shade under elite money. He comes with injury risk, but really, what pitcher doesn't? Its only five years too, so its not likely to kill the Cardinals. Good deal.
   5. aberg Posted: March 28, 2013 at 11:57 AM (#4398439)
Good contract, I think. Five years instead of six (even though he's now under contract for six years) makes it more palatable.
   6. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: March 28, 2013 at 12:03 PM (#4398445)
Most pitchers recover nicely from TJ, and it looks like Wainwright will be his old self. The extension is for his age 32-36 seasons (he turns 37 the last month of the 2018 season) so it's not like this is paying a premium to be saddled with some years you don't expect to be productive (like a Pujols contract).


I think it is. I mean, Roy Halladay, about as productive and durable a pitcher as there has been recently, wasn't worth his contract last year and doesn't look promising for this year. Even Pedro barely limped to 37. It's possible Wainwright could age like Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux, but the odds don't seem good.
   7. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: March 28, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4398568)
This is, what, halfway between CJ Wilson and Greinke in terms of AAV? Sounds about right.
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: March 28, 2013 at 02:50 PM (#4398609)
I assume that the last year of these type of contracts are going to be complete busts, and that you are just signing it to be used as deferred money. To me it really breaks down to 1. All star quality years in three of those years(125 era+, 200 ip) along with two average seasons(100 era+ 180 ip) is what is necessary to make it a break even contract. If he has a Cy Young quality year in one of those three all star seasons(140 era+) and still manages to break 900 ip over those five years, then it's a victory.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: March 28, 2013 at 06:36 PM (#4398737)
I'm a bit surprised for the reasons outlined above. Obviously they consider him fully recovered (and with some reason) and, if he is, this looks OK. I'm not a fan of going more than 5 years on pitchers which they sorta did here since the extension doesn't kick in until next year. That plus the uncertainty that he's fully recovered probably would have kept me from offering this now rather than 3 months from now.

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