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Sunday, July 10, 2011

Carig: Derek Jeter could end up one of the last players to reach 3,000 hits

Countdown to Treder with his historic walk rates…

When Derek Jeter collected his first big-league hit, strikeouts were a sin and walks were poor substitutes for hits. Hitters learned to swing early in the count, to put the ball in play no matter what, because something good might happen.

But in the span of Jeter’s 17-year career, the sabermetric ideas touted by “Moneyball” have swayed front offices throughout the game. Strikeout rates have soared while walks have taken on a new significance. First-pitch swingers have been replaced by grinders, content to turn every at-bat into wars of attrition.

It’s why as Jeter hit the 3,000-hit milestone, he could be among the last. While Alex Rodriguez (2,762 career hits) and Johnny Damon (2,663) will have a chance to join the club in the next few years, the players who follow may have more obstacles standing in their way.

Hits have become the casualty.

...“You’re going to see less and less players get to 3,000 hits,” said Yankees teammate Mark Teixeira. “Just like you’ll see less pitchers get to 300 wins.”

“I think ‘Moneyball’ had a lot do with it,” Teixeira said. “Billy Beane had a big impact on the way people looked at baseball. A walk’s as good as a hit — a lot of people believe that these days. If you’re not walking, it’s like, ‘What’s wrong with you?’?”

Repoz Posted: July 10, 2011 at 12:49 PM | 78 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, projections, sabermetrics, yankees

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   1. Justin T has a centaur for a mentor Posted: July 10, 2011 at 01:28 PM (#3873453)
If we're talking about players who walk more than 972 times, I guess.
   2. BDC Posted: July 10, 2011 at 02:03 PM (#3873469)
Active players 30 and under with 1000 or more career hits as of this morning:

Player                H Born
Carl Crawford      1544 1981
Miguel Cabrera     1497 1983
Jose Reyes         1243 1983
David Wright       1182 1982
Robinson Cano      1174 1982
Alexis Rios        1132 1981
Jhonny Peralta     1052 1982
Justin Morneau     1043 1981
Joe Mauer          1037 1983
Adrian Gonzalez    1026 1982
Brandon Phillips   1007 1981 


Plus Hanley Ramirez is 27 and has 998 career hits.

Obviously most of them won't get there, but it would be entirely on the cards for some sub-group of Cabrera, Reyes, Wright, Cano, or Ramirez to reach 3,000 hits. None of them seem to have given up base hits in favor of the dreaded walk.
   3. RMc Has Bizarre Ideas to Fix Baseball Posted: July 10, 2011 at 02:05 PM (#3873472)
It's true: nobody will ever get 3,000 hits again. Or two thousand, or even one thousand. In fact, nobody will ever get a single base hit ever again. Sorry, kids, but you missed all the good stuff; everything sucks like Monica now.

And get off my lawn.
   4. Dale Sams Posted: July 10, 2011 at 02:13 PM (#3873477)
I don't understand the snark. Jeter *is* the last player to get to 3,000 hits.
   5. KronicFatigue Posted: July 10, 2011 at 02:46 PM (#3873490)
wouldn't the easiest way to check would be to look at the leaders of hits every year. If the leaders are still banging out 200+ hits every season, then no harm, no foul.
   6. jmp Posted: July 10, 2011 at 02:51 PM (#3873494)
Braun is 27 and has 809 hits. He's a .309 career hitter, and he doesn't walk that much. So far his career high is 57 BB, but he does have 40 so far this season.

Even if he averages 180 hits a season, it would still take him over 12 more seasons to get to 3000, meaning he would have to play to 39-40.
   7. Thok Posted: July 10, 2011 at 02:57 PM (#3873495)
Stupid column is stupid. With better medical conditions and the generally longer baseball careers, it's easier now than ever to get 3000 hits.

Or to put it another way, if getting 3000 hits was truly getting harder, then Johnny Damon and Adrian Beltre wouldn't have reasonable chances to get 3000 hits by continuing to put up decent seasons. (Beltre needs 7 seasons of 150 hits each, Damon needs to be a regular until he's 39/40. Damon's path to 3000 is much easier than Beltre's, obviously.)

Basically, it's not that hard to take a Lou Brock/Lou Brock-lite path to 3000 hits today. (Relatively speaking. Being a league average regular starter that gets 150 hits a year for 20 years is nothing to scoff at, but it's not impossible.)
   8. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:00 PM (#3873497)
Even if he averages 180 hits a season, it would still take him over 12 more seasons to get to 3000, meaning he would have to play to 39-40.


. . . which seems eminently possible, given that he's averaged well more than 180 hits/season so far in his career.
   9. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:10 PM (#3873504)
Given Aztec Apocalypse, this is probably true.
   10. salvomania Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:24 PM (#3873510)
And this Pujols guy is going to get his 2000th hit sometime in August (if not July) and he's only 31....

If he plays regularly through his age 37 season, something like this would get him there:

rest of 2011: 71 games to go, say he stays healthy averages a hit/game (career average is 1.2/game), then he ends the season with 2053.
2012, age 32: say 150 games, 1.15 h/g, 172 hits, total 2225.
2013, 33: 147 games, 1.1 h/g, 162 hits, total 2387.
2014, 34, 142 games, 1.1 h/g, 156 hits, 2543.
2015, 35, 140 games, 1.05 h/g, 147 hits, 2690.
2016, 36, 135 games, 1 h/g, 135 hits, 2825.
2017, 37, 130 games, 1 h/g, 130 hits, 2955.

Then I suppose he hangs on at age 38 to get 45 more hits.

This is pretty conservative, and basically assumes we've seen his last huge season, and he still gets there well a couple years before his age-40 season.
   11. I Am Not a Number Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:24 PM (#3873511)
Strikeout rates have soared while walks have taken on a new significance.

In 1995, when Jeter got his first hit, 9.6% of AL plate appearances resulted in a walk.

In 2011, when Jeter got his 3000th hit, 8.3% of AL plate appearances resulted in a walk.

Billy Beane has clearly ruined baseball.
   12. Dr. Phil Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:29 PM (#3873514)
More than walks is the trend of holding players in the minors to get their best years before free agency. To make 3000, you need to be either/or playing full time at 21 or playing full time at 40.
   13. bookbook Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:30 PM (#3873515)
If you exclude the Mariners' offense from 2011, that walk rate will shoot right up.
   14. GEB4000 Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:34 PM (#3873517)
I can deal with the inane columnists. They are just shooting spitballs, and on some level, they know it. But this article is just stupid. Billy Madison stupid.
   15. I Am Not a Number Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:35 PM (#3873518)
If you exclude the Mariners' offense from 2011, that walk rate will shoot right up.

Actually, the Mariners are at 8.2%. Smoak and Cust are ruining your fun.
   16. Kyle S Posted: July 10, 2011 at 03:50 PM (#3873525)
Tex: FEWER. Try it.
   17. Adam B. Posted: July 10, 2011 at 04:15 PM (#3873538)
What does Favorite Toy say about Cabrera et al?
   18. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 10, 2011 at 04:21 PM (#3873539)
[16] I'm glad to know I'm not the only one irritated by that.
   19. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 10, 2011 at 04:22 PM (#3873540)
This is one of the stranger arguments I've heard. Saying "We'll never see a 300-win pitcher again!" at least makes some sense because of the clear change in usage patterns: Pitchers are getting fewer starts per year (fewer decisions), and are also pitching fewer innings per start (higher percentage of no-decisions), both of which harm win totals.

But I don't really see that modern hitters are getting fewer hits than they used to. Players play 162-game seasons, they generally hang around longer, they can DH when they get old, and when walks go up, so do plate appearances. The single-season hit record was set WAY back in 2004. Half of the 3000-hit club, I believe, joined in 1980 or later.

Derek Jeter, FWIW, has usually had decent walk totals and isn't exactly a batting average specialist (.313 career is nice, but 83rd all-time), so it's not like he's a "throwback" player. Yet he got to 3,000 hits in the heart of the Moneyball era and will likely at least get to 3,500 before he's done.

If he can do it, I don't see why someone like Robinson Cano or Miguel Cabrera can't.
   20. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 10, 2011 at 04:34 PM (#3873551)
Derek Jeter, FWIW, has usually had decent walk totals and isn't exactly a batting average specialist (.313 career is nice, but 83rd all-time), so it's not like he's a "throwback" player. Yet he got to 3,000 hits in the heart of the Moneyball era and will likely at least get to 3,500 before he's done.

You do realize Jeter is practically toast, right? No way he gets to 3500.
   21. BDC Posted: July 10, 2011 at 04:51 PM (#3873558)
Jeter is practically toast

Whether he gets close to 3,500 or not would seem to hinge to some extent on the Yankees' patience with his contract. As of this morning, Jeter is 17th among ML shortstops in OPS+, 14th in BA and OBP. That is mediocre, a shadow of his former self, not a good sign given his age, and hilariously inadequate for someone making $15,000,000 a year, but it would be business as usual for the various Alex Gonzalezes of the world. Will he get to muddle along like that for a few years?

Actually 3,500 is quite a stretch, since it would be very hard for him to get there within his current contract even if he were to start hitting well again. Let's say 3,250 or 3,300 as not unlikely.
   22. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:01 PM (#3873563)
Derek Jeter debuted in 1983?
   23. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:03 PM (#3873566)
If Jeter is toast what does that make Betancourt? A moldy biscuit?
   24. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:07 PM (#3873568)
Tex: FEWER. Try it.


I'm glad to know I'm not the only one irritated by that.


You guys would have a tough time listening to Charlie Manuel. The next time he says "well" (for "good") will be the first.
   25. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:14 PM (#3873572)
OK, 3,500 might be pushing it barring another renaissance, but with two more years on his contract I think 3,300 is easily attainable.

He should get another 70-80 this year, and as long as he gets the playing time in 2012 and 2013 (and it seems he will, whether he deserves it or not) he won't have to hit spectacularly well to get 130 hits each season — that's a .217 average over 600 AB. He might not get 600 AB, but I doubt he'll hit as low as .217 either.
   26. Tripon Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:16 PM (#3873574)
The whole idea that walks have not been valued since the game started is dumb.
   27. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:23 PM (#3873579)
If Jeter is toast what does that make Betancourt? A moldy biscuit?

I first read that as 'monkey biscuit'...

Anyways, Yuni is obviously a pile of carbon dust.
   28. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:25 PM (#3873581)
The whole idea that walks have not been valued since the game started is dumb.


"Since the game started" is pushing it a little, since the walk wasn't even invented until baseball had been around for a while. But it's been valued at least since the 1890s. Go take a look at John McGraw's batting record, then note how often his Giants led the league in walks drawn.

Actually, now that I take another look at McGraw's record, I'm shocked to see he was making token game appearances for the Giants as late as 1906.
   29. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:48 PM (#3873589)
More than walks is the trend of holding players in the minors to get their best years before free agency.


Is this really a thing now? Let's take a look at how old today's best players were when they reached the majors. We'll use the Top Ten from the 2010 MVP voting as a proxy for the best players.

Joey Votto: 23
Albert Pujols: 21
Carlos Gonzalez: 22
Adrian Gonzalez: 22
Troy Tulowitzki: 21
Roy Halladay: 21
Aubrey Huff: 23
Jayson Werth: 23
Martin Prado: 22
Ryan Howard: 24

Josh Hamilton: 26
Miguel Cabrera: 20
Robinson Cano: 22
Jose Bautista: 23
Paul Konerko: 21
Evan Longoria: 22
Carl Crawford: 20
Joe Mauer: 21
Adrian Beltre: 19
Delmon Young: 20

It sure doesn't look to me like those guys have been held back too long. Maybe Joey Votto. Everyone else was in the bigs at 22, except for late bloomers like Ryan Howard, Jose Bautista and Jayson Werth, and the well-documented Josh Hamilton.
   30. McCoy Posted: July 10, 2011 at 05:53 PM (#3873593)
I know it has been awhile but didn't Bill James and some others look at this find that it was false? Perhaps it has changed for those players viewed as a superstar but for the most part all these guys are missing is about a third of a season. It isn't like some team is going to keep the next ARod down in the minors for two more seasons simply because they think he'll be great in the bigs. They'll keep him down until he gets over the super-2 hump and then bring him up.
   31. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 10, 2011 at 06:04 PM (#3873604)
I know it has been awhile but didn't Bill James and some others look at this find that it was false? Perhaps it has changed for those players viewed as a superstar but for the most part all these guys are missing is about a third of a season. It isn't like some team is going to keep the next ARod down in the minors for two more seasons simply because they think he'll be great in the bigs. They'll keep him down until he gets over the super-2 hump and then bring him up.

Right, GM's rarely think beyond 'the next seven years'. Not letting your superstar become a super 2 is a nice way of showing your management skill, and impressing the ownders, without hurting the team on the field all that much.
   32. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: July 10, 2011 at 06:14 PM (#3873621)
Mike Trout is just 19 and only needs 2,999 more.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: July 10, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3873636)
First-pitch swingers have been replaced by grinders, content to turn every at-bat into wars of attrition

I was under the impression that first pitch swingers was something frowned upon immensely by the traditionalist.
   34. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 10, 2011 at 06:46 PM (#3873671)
Mike Trout is just 19 and only needs 2,999 more.

At that rate, he'll need to keep playing until he's 57019 years old.
   35. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: July 10, 2011 at 07:24 PM (#3873722)
Jeter has a player option for 2014. If he were to play out his contract including the option at his 2010/2011 rates but with his playing time reduced to ~120 games per season, he'd easily add ~450-500 hits to his career total. So why exactly is 3500 such a reach?
   36. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 10, 2011 at 07:28 PM (#3873731)
number of players to reach 3000 hits by decade:

19teens: 2
1920s: 3
1930s: none
1940s: 1
1950s: 1
1960s: none
1970s: 6
1980s: 2
1990s: 7
2000s: 4
20teens: 1 (so far)
   37. Tripon Posted: July 10, 2011 at 07:54 PM (#3873746)
Forget 3000 hits, can anyone ever get 3000 walks?
   38. shoewizard Posted: July 10, 2011 at 08:04 PM (#3873748)
Adrian Beltre has 1986 hits and is 32 years old. He's a very durable player. Stealth candidate for sure...but if he stays relatively healthy past 35 he has a shot.
   39. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: July 10, 2011 at 08:05 PM (#3873750)
This guy came close.

EDIT: re:37, in case it's not obvious
   40. hokieneer Posted: July 10, 2011 at 08:27 PM (#3873758)
I'm fairly certain Miguel Cabrera will get there. He'll have ~1580 at the end of the year at the age of 28. Throw out 10 more years of 150 per (well under his avg so far), and he's there at age 38.
   41. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: July 10, 2011 at 09:28 PM (#3873792)
Stupid column is stupid. With better medical conditions and the generally longer baseball careers, it's easier now than ever to get 3000 hits.


No kidding. I remember a column, maybe in SI, back when Rollie Fingers retired in 1985 with a record 341 saves, saying that that was a record that will never be broken, and thinking then that was one of the most assinine pronouncements ever. In 1985, Lee Smith was just 27 years old and had 113 saves, racking up over 30 per year for the previous 3. Dan Quisenberry was just 32 and had 217, with 37, 44, 45, and 35 the previous 4 years. Though it was his last good year, no one knew that at the time. He was little more than 3 years away at his current level. Hell, Bruce Sutter, one year removed from a then record 45, finished 1985 with 283. yeah, like Quiz, he was done too, but would you have bet in 1985 that 33 year old Bruce Sutter wouldn't get 59 more saves? All told, 4 players active in 1985, have since broken Fingers record, plus a few others.

This article was nearly as dumb. I can't recall another period in my lifetime when so many players were in good position to get to 3,000 hits.
   42. John DiFool2 Posted: July 10, 2011 at 09:28 PM (#3873793)
1930s: none


Weird, given the hit levels of those 2 decades-it likely was a combination of odd circumstances (Babe's late start as a position player, Gehrig's illness) and players back then not being all that aware of 3,000 being significant-c.f. Hornsby's retiring less than 100 away, Sam Rice only 13 away.
   43. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: July 10, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#3873801)
Weird, given the hit levels of those 2 decades-it likely was a combination of odd circumstances (Babe's late start as a position player, Gehrig's illness) and players back then not being all that aware of 3,000 being significant-c.f. Hornsby's retiring less than 100 away, Sam Rice only 13 away.


Al Simmons drinking himself out of the game. Dude had nearly 2200 by age 32, with an average of over 200 per for the previous 6 seasons. Then 140, 186, 117, 142, and 96 in 1939, finishing the decade with 2869. An average of 162 per from 1935 on would have gotten him there.
   44. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 10, 2011 at 09:44 PM (#3873806)
I know it has been awhile but didn't Bill James and some others look at this find that it was false? Perhaps it has changed for those players viewed as a superstar but for the most part all these guys are missing is about a third of a season. It isn't like some team is going to keep the next ARod down in the minors for two more seasons simply because they think he'll be great in the bigs. They'll keep him down until he gets over the super-2 hump and then bring him up.


And looking at MVP's ignores all the young players who haven't panned out by now (Adam Jones, Felix Pie (Sox are playing Orioles)) or recent guys (Jason Heyward).
   45. bobm Posted: July 10, 2011 at 10:35 PM (#3873829)
It’s why as Jeter hit the 3,000-hit milestone, he could be among the last. While Alex Rodriguez (2,762 career hits) and Johnny Damon (2,663) will have a chance to join the club in the next few years, the players who follow may have more obstacles standing in their way.


[17] What does Favorite Toy say about Cabrera et al?

It says that, using data through 2010, the chances of someone (other than A-Rod and Damon) getting 3,000 hits appears to be 99.99%.


Player          Age;   H;   A;-Lst H-Tot P {P Not}
Alex Rodriguez   34; 2,672 37.6 3,171 >97%
Ivan Rodriguez   38; 2,817 40.4 3,073 90% 10%
Johnny Damon     36; 2,571 39   3;,029 57% 43%
Elvis Andrus     21;   284; 45   3;,180 57% 43%
Albert Pujols    30; 1,900 36   3;,008 51% 49%
Miguel Cabrera   27; 1,400 34.8 2,851 41% 59%
Carl Crawford    28; 1,480 35.8 2,836 39% 61%
Robinson Cano    27; 1,075 34.8 2,596 29% 71%
Adrian Beltre    31; 1,889 36.4 2,747 27% 73%
Michael Young    33; 1,848 37.8 2,719 26% 74%
Ryan Braun       26;   711; 35   2;,427 25% 75%
Nick Markakis    26;   891; 34.4 2,458 24% 76%
Hanley Ramirez   26;   934; 34.4 2,418 22% 78%
Evan Longoria    24;   455; 35.4 2,273 21% 79%
David Wright     27; 1,149 34.8 2,469 21% 79%
Ryan Zimmerman   25;   833; 34.6 2,369 21% 79%
Billy Butler     24;   590; 33.6 2,278 20% 80%
Joe Mauer        27; 1,011 34.8 2,388 19% 81%
Ichiro Suzuki    36; 2,244 38.4 2,766 19% 81%
Matt Kemp        25;   645; 34   2;,124 13% 87%
Prince Fielder   26;   826; 34.4 2,183 12% 88%
Delmon Young     24;   675; 33.6 2,117 12% 88%
Placido Polanco  34; 1,836 38.2 2,554 12% 88%
Matt Holliday    30; 1,216 36   2;,311 11% 89%
Mark Teixeira    30; 1,321 36   2;,316  9;% 91%
Adrian Gonzalez  28;   900; 35.2 2,107  7;% 93%
Vernon Wells     31; 1,529 36.4 2,374  7;% 93%
Adam Jones       24;   457; 33.6 1,875  6;% 94%
Joey Votto       26;   511; 34.4 1,896  6;% 94%
Carlos Lee       34; 1,967 37.6 2,537  5;% 95%
Alexis Rios      29; 1,065 35.6 2,117  4;% 96%
Jose Reyes       27; 1,119 34.8 2,111  3;% 97%
Shin-Soo Choo    27;   488; 35.4 1,808  3;% 97%
Brandon Phillips 29   903; 35.6 1,985  2;% 98%
Bobby Abreu      36; 2,257 38.4 2,636  1;% 99%
Brian McCann     26;   752; 34.4 1,892 <1%
Dustin Pedroia   26;   667; 34.4 1,849 <1%


Note: "years remaining" = 24 - 0.6*(Age in 2010)
        The; probability of any hitter reaching 3,000 hits obviously changes if the "years remaining" parameters are changed.
   46. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 10, 2011 at 10:42 PM (#3873835)
That would look good if every single semicolon was next to " " instead of being on the other side of some word or number. How did that happen?

Still interesting.
   47. bobm Posted: July 10, 2011 at 10:49 PM (#3873838)
Double post
   48. Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest" Posted: July 10, 2011 at 10:50 PM (#3873839)
This was an idiotic article given that ARod is just 238 away. He may get it by the end of next year.
   49. bobm Posted: July 10, 2011 at 10:57 PM (#3873845)
[46] the semicolons are a formatting glitch associated with using [ampersand]nbsp to space the columns.

Player         Odds to Reach 3,000 hits
Alex Rodriguez >97%
Ivan Rodriguez  90%
Johnny Damon    57%
Elvis Andrus    57%
Albert Pujols   51%
Miguel Cabrera  41%
Carl Crawford   39%
Robinson Cano   29%
Adrian Beltre   27%
Michael Young   26%
Ryan Braun      25%
Nick Markakis   24%
Hanley Ramirez  22%
Evan Longoria   21%
David Wright    21%
Ryan Zimmerman  21%
Billy Butler    20%
Joe Mauer       19%
Ichiro Suzuki   19%
Matt Kemp       13%
Prince Fielder  12%
Delmon Young    12%
Placido Polanco 12%
Matt Holliday   11%
Mark Teixeira    9%
Adrian Gonzalez  7%
Vernon Wells     7%
Adam Jones       6%
Joey Votto       6%
Carlos Lee       5%
Alexis Rios      4%
Jose Reyes       3%
Shin-Soo Choo    3%
Brandon Phillips 2%
Bobby Abreu      1%
Brian McCann    <1%
Dustin Pedroia  <1%
   50. Something Other Posted: July 10, 2011 at 11:09 PM (#3873848)
Jhonny Peralta 1052 1982
Huh. Peralta didn't get an early start, doesn't hit for average, isn't particularly durable, and he's still 6th among the under 30 crowd. I wouldn't have guessed that.

Obviously most of them won't get there, but it would be entirely on the cards for some sub-group of Cabrera, Reyes, Wright, Cano, or Ramirez to reach 3,000 hits. None of them seem to have given up base hits in favor of the dreaded walk.
Well, Wright seems to be on course to give up hitting for hits, so there's that...

edit: I realize he got an early start, which is big, but for Elvis Andrus to be a favorite to get to 3,000 hits means The Favorite Toy is seriously broken.
   51. Banta Posted: July 10, 2011 at 11:11 PM (#3873849)
I'll take the under on Pudge. Jeez.

What a silly thing that had Elvis Andrus that high. Sort of the opposite of the Pudge prediction.
   52. bobm Posted: July 10, 2011 at 11:30 PM (#3873861)
[49] #### spreadsheets! Corrected probabilities (after adding Peralta)


Player..........Odds to Reach 3,000
Alex Rodriguez >97%
Albert Pujols   51%
Miguel Cabrera  41%
Johnny Damon    35%
Carl Crawford   32%
Robinson Cano   29%
Adrian Beltre   27%
Nick Markakis   24%
Hanley Ramirez  22%
David Wright    21%
Billy Butler    20%
Ryan Braun      20%
Ivan Rodriguez  20%
Joe Mauer       19%
Ichiro Suzuki   19%
Ryan Zimmerman  16%
Michael Young   16%
Matt Kemp       13%
Prince Fielder  12%
Delmon Young    12%
Matt Holliday   11%
Elvis Andrus    11%
Evan Longoria   10%
Mark Teixeira    9%
Adrian Gonzalez  7%
Vernon Wells     7%
Adam Jones       6%
Joey Votto       6%
Carlos Lee       5%
Alexis Rios      4%
Placido Polanco  3%
Jose Reyes       3%
Brandon Phillips 2%
Bobby Abreu      1%
Brian McCann     1%
Dustin Pedroia   1%
Jhonny Peralta   1%


Note: One row off on years remaining and Andrus' chances are slashed!

Edit: Pudge, too. [50] and [51] The Favorite Toy is blameless; I take the blame.
Edit 2: The probability that someone other than A-Rod and Damon gets to 3,000 hits: now only 99.66%.
   53. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: July 11, 2011 at 12:06 AM (#3873875)
I'll take the under on Pudge. Jeez.

What a silly thing that had Elvis Andrus that high. Sort of the opposite of the Pudge prediction.


I think he did it wrong. Andrus is projected to get 1650 more hits. He needs 2716 to get to 3,000 (both based on last years end of season numbers). By the FT, that projects to 10.7% (1650/2716 - .5).
   54. bobm Posted: July 11, 2011 at 12:30 AM (#3873885)
[53] Correct - see [52] with Andrus at 11%
   55. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: July 11, 2011 at 12:39 AM (#3873891)
Yeah, I didn't see your edit before I posted.
   56. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq., LLC Posted: July 11, 2011 at 12:45 AM (#3873894)
He'll definitely be among the last, if you make the group of "among the last" big enough.
   57. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: July 11, 2011 at 12:53 AM (#3873899)
It depends. Are we counting Japanese hits? *runs*
   58. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 11, 2011 at 01:06 AM (#3873910)
number of players to reach 3000 hits by decade:

full list:
Honus Wagner 1914
Nap Lajoie 1914
Ty Cobb 1921
Tris Speaker 1925
Eddie Collins 1925
Paul Waner 1942
Stan Musial 1958
Hank Aaron 1970
Willie Mays 1970
Roberto Clemente 1972
Al Kaline 1974
Pete Rose 1978
Lou Brock 1979
Carl Yastrzemski 1980
Rod Carew 1985
George Brett 1992
Robin Yount 1992
Dave Winfield 1993
Eddie Murray 1995
Paul Molitor 1996
Tony Gwynn 1999
Wade Boggs 1999
Cal Ripken 2000
Rickey Henderson 2001
Rafael Palmeiro 2005
Craig Biggio 2007
Derek Jeter 2011

3 different players ended a season with EXACTLY 3000--Clemente, of course, but also Lajoie and Rickey be Rickey
   59. Howie Menckel Posted: July 11, 2011 at 01:58 AM (#3873935)
Cap Anson says hi.
And "Get off my lawn!"
   60. bigglou115 is not an Illuminati agent Posted: July 11, 2011 at 02:29 AM (#3873948)
You hear that kids? You'll never be as good as anybody who played before you, so you should probably quit trying.
   61. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 11, 2011 at 02:31 AM (#3873950)
OK--Cap Anson--1894

1890s: 1
   62. Something Other Posted: July 11, 2011 at 02:39 AM (#3873954)
The 90s really destroyed the exclusivity of the "club". Look at those guys, not an inner-circler among them!
   63. Walt Davis Posted: July 11, 2011 at 05:04 AM (#3874014)
"One of the last" ... a classic weasel phrase. How many have to do it after Jeter before he's no longer considered one of the last? Is the second to have ever done it one of the last? Shall the first be one of the last? Sure, you pointy-headed, pencil-necked, smarty-pants are all so confident he won't be the last but how confident are you he won't be one of the last?

And, hell, he even threw in the classic weasel "could" while he was at it.
   64. ptodd Posted: July 11, 2011 at 07:56 AM (#3874035)
“You’re going to see less and less players get to 3,000 hits,” said Yankees teammate Mark Teixeira. “Just like you’ll see less pitchers get to 300 wins.”


You can not compare 3000 H to 300 W. Pitchers now pitch every 5 days instead of 4, and pitch only 6-7 IP instead of 9 IP, meaning they have to depend on the bullpen as well. So we may have seen the last 300 W pitcher unless pitching usage changes.

I see no reason why the frequency of 3000 hitters should be reduced, let alone eliminated.

Jeter may be the last of the 3000 hit club doing so with one team, although guys like Cano and Pujols may do so if they play long enough and stick with their team.
   65. cardsfanboy Posted: July 11, 2011 at 08:31 AM (#3874038)
You can not compare 3000 H to 300 W. Pitchers now pitch every 5 days instead of 4, and pitch only 6-7 IP instead of 9 IP, meaning they have to depend on the bullpen as well. So we may have seen the last 300 W pitcher unless pitching usage changes.


Doubt that, they still get 32-34 starts a year, you had Glavine, Maddux, Clemens and Randy all make it to 300 wins with the same method that is being employed nowadays, and pitchers made it in the past with only going 36 starts or so during 154 game season. They have longer careers nowadays than they did in the past, as the average pitcher didn't survive in the majors as long. There is absolutely zero reason for an intelligent baseball fan to think the era of the 300 wins is dead, leave that kind of stupidity to mainstream media and tv announcers. I'm not sure how realistic it is to say pitcher spitched 9 innings, Bob Gibson(who never made it to 300 wins) is the poster boy for the pitcher finishing what he started in the era of the 60's and 70's and only finshed about half his starts (255 compplete games 482 starts)

Greg Maddux 740 gs, 109cg, Clemens 707/118, Carlton 709/254; Ryan 777/222; etc. Basically the pitchers of recent yore who have 300 wins pitched 8 innings and current pitchers pitch 6 1/3rd (on average) specilized bullpen could be argued also have a better chance of not blowing a lead keeping the win intact for the pitcher, and of course the health issue, basically it's not about how many games you start in a season, it's about how many games you start in a career or innings pitched, you need about 600 starts(Blyleven, Tommy John, Wynn, Robin Roberts, Kaat, Moyer and Tanana didn't make it with 600 starts) to have a legitimate shot at 300 wins. (of course how good you are, or how good your teams are also factors into it) 600 starts is 15 years of health by today's usage, 20 years considering that almost everyone misses a half season or two. There is no rational reason to think that 300 wins is unattainable in todays game.(and I wouldn't be shocked to see teams returning to using your ace starters as relievers on their throwing day)
   66. bookbook Posted: July 11, 2011 at 12:53 PM (#3874064)
I think George Brett is better than you think he was.

I'd take the under on Zimmerman at 16%. That dude will be lucky if his arms are still attached by the time he's 33.
   67. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2011 at 12:54 PM (#3874065)
Actually 3,500 is quite a stretch, since it would be very hard for him to get there within his current contract even if he were to start hitting well again. Let's say 3,250 or 3,300 as not unlikely.

Worth noting that these "low end" projections still give Jeter a good shot at the most hits by a right-handed batter in American League history [Molitor, 3319]. Might want to think about that the next time some die-hard suggests the possibility of an as yet undiscovered secret formula for a defensive metric that will eventually show Jeter not to be HoF worthy.
   68. GuyM Posted: July 11, 2011 at 01:07 PM (#3874072)
Clapper: I don't understand why you keep talking about a "yet undiscovered" defensive metric. There are several excellent defensive metrics that all result in Jeter being a borderline HOFer in terms of career wins produced (50-55 WAR). All that is required for that to become the consensus view among analysts is for clear evidence to emerge that UZR (and to a lesser extent, TZ) substantially overrates Jeter.
   69. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 11, 2011 at 01:17 PM (#3874082)
The 90s really destroyed the exclusivity of the "club". Look at those guys, not an inner-circler among them!

3000 hits hasn't been the exclusive domain of inner circle guys for a long time.

Waner, Brock, Yaz, Kaline. Not inner circle.
   70. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: July 11, 2011 at 02:12 PM (#3874123)
Ya know, I was surprised that Tiex would make those comments, because (1) he's always hit for good average and is still young, so I thought he'd have a decent shot, and (2) he's never been afraid to take a walk.

I went to his page to check my assumptions and while (2) was right (27th among active players in BB), I didn't realize he'd fallen off the cliff in terms of BA.
   71. Dr. Phil Posted: July 11, 2011 at 04:56 PM (#3874306)
More than walks is the trend of holding players in the minors to get their best years before free agency.



Is this really a thing now? Let's take a look at how old today's best players were when they reached the majors. We'll use the Top Ten from the 2010 MVP voting as a proxy for the best players.

Joey Votto: 23
Albert Pujols: 21
Carlos Gonzalez: 22
Adrian Gonzalez: 22
Troy Tulowitzki: 21
Roy Halladay: 21
Aubrey Huff: 23
Jayson Werth: 23
Martin Prado: 22
Ryan Howard: 24

Josh Hamilton: 26
Miguel Cabrera: 20
Robinson Cano: 22
Jose Bautista: 23
Paul Konerko: 21
Evan Longoria: 22
Carl Crawford: 20
Joe Mauer: 21
Adrian Beltre: 19
Delmon Young: 20

It sure doesn't look to me like those guys have been held back too long. Maybe Joey Votto. Everyone else was in the bigs at 22, except for late bloomers like Ryan Howard, Jose Bautista and Jayson Werth, and the well-documented Josh Hamilton.


I should clarify a few things. A cursory glance at the players on the 3000 hit list revealed that they were FULL TIME players by the age of 22, at least half of them were full time before that. I could look at the number of plate appearances by age, but I don't feel like it. Everyone on the 3000 hit list is a remarkable player, and playing MLB full time at 20 or 21 is an indication of remarkable talent. So, in a quite obvious conclusion, the players who make a run at 3000 hits are going to be truly outstandingly talented to the point they force themselves into starting roles at 20 or 21.
   72. Howie Menckel Posted: July 11, 2011 at 05:06 PM (#3874317)
This is a funny quote by Jeter, who is getting paid 500K for being voted an "All-Star" by the fans.

"Unfortunately I won't be able to go," Jeter said on Friday. "It's just a situation where after talking with Joe and Cash and Geno, it'd probably be best not to try to push it. Because it's most important to be ready for the second half. That's what my focus has to be at. It's unfortunate because I know you guys know how much I enjoy going to All-Star games. I love playing in All-Star games. Especially getting voted in by the fans, it's something I would like to do but I'll try to be smart about it. I know I can be stubborn a lot of times when it comes to injuries, but I'm going to try to be smart about it."

A day later, Jeter not only went 5-for-5, he attempted two steals (he was 1-for-2).

Does that sound like a guy who can't at least show up in Phoenix and wave to the fans who voted for him?

I wonder how many players could avoid any criticism for a stunt like that?

I lost interest in the game, like many, too many years ago to remember. But this column makes a good point - shouldn't you have to show up to collect the bonus? (of course if someone is hospitalized that's different.)

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5327:at-the-mlb-all-star-game-players-with-asg-bonuses-should-be-compelled-to-appear&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39
   73. Gotham Dave Posted: July 11, 2011 at 05:38 PM (#3874348)
I wonder how many players could avoid any criticism for a stunt like that?
It probably has a strong overlap with players who make their league's team stronger by pulling said stunt, 5-5 be damned. Although I'm fully willing to grant that that may be a coincidence.
   74. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2011 at 05:53 PM (#3874369)
I wonder how many players could avoid any criticism for a stunt like that?

Jeter is coming off a significant injury, and Giardi had talked of giving him a day off before the rainout even though he was still in the hunt for 3,000, so there seems to be a legitimate case for rest over playing being more helpful to the team. Perhaps a borderline call, but at Jeter's age, a certain amount of caution seems prudent. It's not like he's one of the habitual All-Star avoiders.
   75. Endless Trash Posted: July 11, 2011 at 06:02 PM (#3874382)
Who the hell gives a ####.
   76. TaySan Posted: July 11, 2011 at 06:06 PM (#3874388)
Pete Rose had 1566 walks. He had a higher walk rate than Jeter. Being a good hitter for a really long time is far more important than a low walk rate. Also batting high in the order. Rose batted only .261 over his last 5 seasons to end with a career mark of .303.
   77. bunyon Posted: July 11, 2011 at 06:11 PM (#3874398)
Yes, I fully agree that a player should have to show up to get the bonus, only I wouldn't exclude hospitalization. The All-Stars, to me, are the guys that are there. I almost wonder if they shouldn't ban team paid bonuses for the ASG, expand the break to 5 days, and then pick a team of 25 to a side and have MLB pay the 25 on the winning team $500,000 and the 25 on the losing side $100,000. But only those that show up in uniform get the dough.

The problem is that I have zero to do with a contract negotiated between the Yankees and Jeter. If they want to pay him a bonus every time any human being says Jeter is an all-star, it is none of my business.
   78. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: July 11, 2011 at 07:13 PM (#3874487)
Rose batted only .261 over his last 5 seasons to end with a career mark of .303.

I'm hoping Jeter hangs around long enough to drop his average below .300 - just like Mickey Mantle!

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