Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Carlos Beltran might struggle to make the Hall of Fame

The players who got in relatively quickly to the Hall of Fame with the writers, for the most part, hit antiquated statistical milestones such as 3,000 hits or 500 home runs, or they had images that suggested more value than they had sabermetrically. That’s not Beltran, who’s built much of his Hall of Fame case around consistency and longevity.
...
Will Beltran be the next Dwight Evans for Hall of Fame candidates? The two are close in WAR, JAWS, and Hall Rating, with Beltran enjoying a slight edge in all three. The two players share fairly similar narratives, as solid, unsung contributors to many winning teams. They even share some of the same deficiencies, ranking as two of the best defensive outfielders in baseball in their early seasons before declining steeply in their 30s. The key differentiator could be that Beltran played in an offensive era that inflated his peak stats somewhat. This should help him a little with voters.
...
Beltran could also be the next Larry Walker, the Colorado Rockies legend and former National League MVP who at last check was struggling to stay above 10 percent in the writers’ vote for Cooperstown. Walker actually rates far above Beltran by Hall Rating and is roughly comparable by JAWS, though if he gets in the Hall of Fame, it seems likely to come via committee. Former Rockies seem to fall into their own special class of candidates.

Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: September 22, 2016 at 11:55 PM | 140 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: carlos beltran, dwight evans, hall of fame, larry walker

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 
   1. The Duke Posted: September 23, 2016 at 08:27 AM (#5305110)
I don't see Beltran having any trouble at all. His playoff record is what takes him from borderline to slam dunk. He won't be inner circle but I assume he will get in within 5 years.

He also has a huge advantage in that he has played in a number of cities so he is well known amongst the writers. He was only in St. Louis for a couple of years but made a big impact as a very classy ball player. His charitable work also will help.
   2. Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: September 23, 2016 at 08:34 AM (#5305115)
I agree with Duke, I think it will take him several ballots but I think the BBWAA will put him in. He has really rebounded this year and his achieving of 400 HRs, 2500 hits, and 1500 runs and RBI should put him
   3. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 23, 2016 at 08:35 AM (#5305116)
#1, you're trolling right?

Beltran will struggle to get even 25% of the vote by his 5th year.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:13 AM (#5305132)

Beltran will struggle to get even 25% of the vote by his 5th year.


That seems highly unlikely to me. The electorate has come around to understanding Tim Raines worth, and Beltran looks a lot like Raines, with better post-season narrative, and a better finish to his career.

Beltran may struggle to get 75%, but I don't see any trouble getting over 50%.
   5. bfan Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:15 AM (#5305135)
He is well-deserving, and it would be an injustice to exclude him; I guess he suffers from doing everything really well, as opposed to doing one thing extra-ordinarily well, and other things poorly.
   6. BDC Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:16 AM (#5305136)
It's a mystery; I really don't know whether to agree with #1 or #3. I think Beltran will sail into the HOM, but the HOF all depends on a group of writers still several years down the road. If more and more use of WAR and WAR-like thinking is made by that point (a likely trend) then Beltran may be inducted into the HOF within a few ballots. But as good as he was, big New York free-agent contract mid-career and all, Beltran really was not one of those guys you thought of as "future Hall of Famer" on any regular basis, or at least way, way down the list among his contemporaries. He had one top-five MVP ballot, and was fourth on that one. Another time, ninth. Old-school thought might not even give him much consideration.
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:17 AM (#5305138)
Beltran might have had problems if he hadn't spent a significant chunk of his career in New York, but he did, so he'll be fine.
   8. Greg K Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:22 AM (#5305142)
Beltran might have had problems if he hadn't spent a significant chunk of his career in New York, but he did, so he'll be fine.

Weird, I actually think of his time in New York as one of the major hurdles to him getting in. Signed a massive contract and stunk the first year. Sure he was great after that...but first impressions seem to last, and he was the poster boy for a Mets team that was supposed to go on a great run, but didn't. And for the Yankees he was an old guy who hit well for an old guy. I think of him as a coin flip for the Hall...but his odds will presumably improve if the recent trend of voter attitudes continues.

EDIT: Yeah, agree with BDC on that score. I have quite a few friends who are casual baseball fans. The thought of Beltran as a Hall of Famer has always struck them as strange. I don't think most fans thought of him in those terms, even in his prime.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:30 AM (#5305145)
The thought of Beltran as a Hall of Famer has always struck them as strange. I don't think most fans thought of him in those terms, even in his prime.

True, but he's not a peak candidate.

He's got some very nice counting stats. 400+ HR, 1500+ R and RBI, 300 SB. From a CF. I think that helps a lot with the non-WAR voters.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:33 AM (#5305148)
Signed a massive contract and stunk the first year. Sure he was great after that...but first impressions seem to last, and he was the poster boy for a Mets team that was supposed to go on a great run, but didn't. And for the Yankees he was an old guy who hit well for an old guy.


It won't matter any more for Beltran than it did for Catfish Hunter. He was a star in New York, and he's well-liked by the fans and not hated by the media, so he's in.
   11. GregD Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:36 AM (#5305153)
Beltran might have had problems if he hadn't spent a significant chunk of his career in New York, but he did, so he'll be fine.
Definitely! I mean look at how HOMers Keith Hernandez, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Charlie Keller, Gary Sheffield, Tim Raines and Mike Mussina coasted to slam dunk HOF votes based on their time in NYC.

   12. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:39 AM (#5305158)
He also has a huge advantage in that he has played in a number of cities so he is well known amongst the writers.

I thought the narrative was that players who are strongly identified with one team tended to do better than guys who bounced around the league.
   13. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:45 AM (#5305162)
Definitely! I mean look at how HOMers Keith Hernandez, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Charlie Keller, Gary Sheffield, Tim Raines and Mike Mussina coasted to slam dunk HOF votes based on their time in NYC.
Agreed, although Don Mattingly received way more support than he deserved.
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:53 AM (#5305171)
Definitely! I mean look at how HOMers Keith Hernandez, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Charlie Keller, Gary Sheffield, Tim Raines and Mike Mussina coasted to slam dunk HOF votes based on their time in NYC.


Randolph, Hernandez, Nettles, and Keller weren't regarded as even borderline guys by the majority of the voting body, due to the standards of the time, regardless of how much we know about advanced stats now. I mean, Christ, Keller barely even made it over 1,000 hits. Raines was a part-timer on his way out by the time he played for the Yankees. Sheffield would have sailed in without the steroid hysteria, and Mussina's climbing steadily and should be in within the next five years.

Hernandez is actually a really good example of the sort of thing I'm talking about. He never made it over the hump, but he got enough votes to stay on the ballot for nine years, which is pretty good for a no-power guy at a power position. Compare that to a guy like Will Clark, an exact non-NY contemporary who was very close on peak and career value (in much more traditional forms, at that), and who was one-and-done on the ballot.
   15. Rally Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:54 AM (#5305173)
Depends on how long their memories are. Beltran is 8 years removed from being able to handle CF on an everyday basis. But they did come around on Andre Dawson.

Beltran's career is like Dawson+. (pulls up BBref) Actually, closer to Dawson than I thought. We have power, speed, center field defense in early part of career, injury diminished corner outfield later, and Beltran took about twice as many walks.

OPS+ though is really close, 121-119, and Dawson was at 121 at the age Beltran is now before hanging around for a few below average seasons. Both have 10,000+ PA, 400+ homers, 1500+ RBI, 300+ steals. Beltran trails Dawson in steals by only 3, but might not get there since he hasn't attempted one since 2014.

Beltran leads in WAR 70.3 to 64.5. Dawson was at 66.8 before his last 3 years. I thought it would be a bigger difference. Dawson has the edge in hardware since he won an MVP (deserved or not it stands) and leads 8-3 in gold gloves. Beltran has the huge postseason numbers, Dawson hit .186 without a homer in 15 playoff games.

Dawson debuted at 45% and made it 9 years later.

   16. RMc's Unenviable Situation Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:57 AM (#5305174)
No rings, no MVPs and not a drop of black ink (except he played all 162 games in 2002). I'd vote for him, but he'll probably have to wait a bit.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:57 AM (#5305175)
Dawson is a pretty good comp, I think, and I'd expect Beltran to follow a fairly similar voting path.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:58 AM (#5305178)

Dawson debuted at 45% and made it 9 years later.


Seems like a reasonable comp and path for Dawson, though I'd suspect it doesn't take quite that long.
   19. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:06 AM (#5305187)
I would be [pleasantly] surprised if he got in, if he got in more quickly than Andre Dawson did I'd be very very very surprised, I think the Dewey Evans treatment is the most likely scenario...

Compare that to a guy like Will Clark, an exact non-NY contemporary who was very close on peak and career value (in much more traditional forms, at that), and who was one-and-done on the ballot.

If you think playing in NYC will help Beltran you are delusional, NY fans and the NY MSM are on the whole convinced that Beltran is the least clutchiest guy to ever play in the postseason- 332/.441/.674 in the postseason you say? didn't happen, his postseason career consists of exactly one PA, one PITCH, that he didn't even swing at.
   20. GregD Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:10 AM (#5305191)
Randolph, Hernandez, Nettles, and Keller weren't regarded as even borderline guys by the majority of the voting body, due to the standards of the time, regardless of how much we know about advanced stats now. I mean, Christ, Keller barely even made it over 1,000 hits. Raines was a part-timer on his way out by the time he played for the Yankees.
Exactly! A perfect case for the fact that NY time doesn't establish HOF support for deserving people.
   21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:21 AM (#5305200)
Exactly! A perfect case for the fact that NY time doesn't establish HOF support for deserving people.


It's not enough to get a guy in by itself, but playing well in New York for a couple of years is enough to put a borderline guy over the hump, or keep a fringe guy on the ballot. Your list is guys who weren't borderline guys, a guy who was a bench player in New York, and a guy who's in exactly the same position that Beltran will be in when he retires (i.e. climbing the ladder, and on his way to induction).
   22. BDC Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:30 AM (#5305208)
No rings

This would be an excellent year to redress that situation :)
   23. reech Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:46 AM (#5305223)
Adam Wainwright.

nuff said.

Yes, I'm a Mets fan.
   24. Rally Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:55 AM (#5305230)
It's not enough to get a guy in by itself, but playing well in New York for a couple of years is enough to put a borderline guy over the hump, or keep a fringe guy on the ballot.


Which borderline player got a NY boost to put him over the hump? Maybe Rizzuto, Combs, some of the other guys who played with Babe, Lou, Joe, Yogi, and Mick. But recently? As in played within the last 50 years?

Almost any Yankee who made the HOF since then has been a no-doubt first ballot guy. Except maybe Gossage and Hunter. Hunter was a bad pick by SABR stats but at the time he went in I don't think he was considered borderline.

Gossage is borderline, took 9 ballots to get in. Maybe he doesn't if his prime years came in Detroit or Pittsburgh? I don't know.

OK how about the Mets? All their pitchers who made the HOF were no-doubters. Among the hitters Carter and Piazza took a few more ballots than they should but both are among the top half dozen catchers to ever play the game. Rickey, Eddie Murray, Willie Mays didn't need their Mets years to be first ballot inductees.

Who does that leave? Alomar? Ashburn? Ashburn played one year, and well, for one of the worst and most comical teams ever in 1962. Alomar, if anything, delayed his HOF chances thanks to his play for the Mets.
   25. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:03 AM (#5305244)
I think he's going to get screwed by the large glut of players coming through that will take awhile to get in. He'll probably get in eventually, but it will take awhile. I'm guessing he wears a Mets cap? Holding out hope he perhaps wears a Royals cap.


If you think playing in NYC will help Beltran you are delusional,


Yea, that seems like a common misconception. Didn't seem to help Don Mattingly, Keith Hernandez, or Mike Mussina.
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:08 AM (#5305251)
I think he's going to get screwed by the large glut of players coming through that will take awhile to get in.

Won't the glut be over by the time he appears on the ballot? Assuming he at least plays next year, we're talking 2022.
   27. Ron J Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:10 AM (#5305252)
Just looked at the various HOF toys at BB-Ref. Voters who really care about the leaderboards won't like him. He's interesting when you look at Jaws.

Only the big 6 have more career WAR. But that's always a problem for CF. The top is so good almost everybody pales in comparison.
His peak is good but not awesome.
His War7 is 10th, but again there's the issue of the big 6.

And he's got 9 AS games plus a good playoff resume.

All in all I'm surprised at how good he is as a HOF candidate. I expect him to struggle a tad with the voters because some will ding him for the leaderboard issues and others will compare him to the big 6 and find him wanting.
   28. DanG Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:15 AM (#5305254)
Similar position, value, and playing time to Beltran:

Rk               Player WAR/pos OPSRfield    PA From   To   BA  OBP  SLG
1          Paul Molitor    75.4  122    7.9 12167 1978 1998 .306 .369 .448 H
2             Ron Santo    70.4  125   20.2  9397 1960 1974 .277 .362 .464 H
3        Carlos Beltran    70.3  121   37.1 10496 1998 2016 .282 .354 .492
4            Tim Raines    69.1  123   
-7.1 10359 1979 2002 .294 .385 .425
5           Ernie Banks    67.4  122   55.0 10394 1953 1971 .274 .330 .500 H
6          Dwight Evans    66.9  127   66.3 10569 1972 1991 .272 .370 .470
7          Goose Goslin    66.1  128   50.0  9829 1921 1938 .316 .387 .500 H
8          Andre Dawson    64.5  119   70.2 10769 1976 1996 .279 .323 .482 H
9          Jake Beckley    61.5  125   39.0 10504 1888 1907 .308 .361 .436 H
10           Zack Wheat    60.2  129   54.0 10000 1909 1927 .317 .367 .450 H
11          Bobby Abreu    59.9  128   
-7.3 10081 1996 2014 .291 .395 .475
12        Darrell Evans    58.5  119   37.1 10737 1969 1989 .248 .361 .431 
   29. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:17 AM (#5305258)
No rings, no MVPs and not a drop of black ink (except he played all 162 games in 2002). I'd vote for him, but he'll probably have to wait a bit.


I'm always surprised when reminded that Beltran never won a World Series. He's played for a bunch of franchises that have won the World Series recently - Cardinals, Giants, Yankees (for certain definitions of "recently") - and he has a phenomenal postseason record, but incredibly poor timing even going back to he had a ridiculous postseason for the 2004 Astros, but the the 2005 Astros were the ones who made the World Series. He played for the 2011 Giants and the 2012 Cardinals. The 2011 Cardinals and 2012 Giants won the World Series.

Seems like a reasonable comp and path for Dawson, though I'd suspect it doesn't take quite that long.


Dawson won an MVP award and had a great narrative associated with that award - the "blank check" story. He was also beloved in Chicago, which is probably more provincial than New York in terms of pushing its Hall-of-Fame candidates. I would expect Beltran to do worse than Dawson, at least initially, despite having a stronger case.

As for New York, isn't the lasting memory there of Beltran of him taking strike three to end the 2006 NLCS? Which not only undercuts the benefit of playing in New York, but also hurts the perception of him as a playoff performer (combined with his lack of rings) despite the .332/.441/.674 career postseason batting line.

   30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:21 AM (#5305264)

Which borderline player got a NY boost to put him over the hump? Maybe Rizzuto, Combs, some of the other guys who played with Babe, Lou, Joe, Yogi, and Mick. But recently? As in played within the last 50 years?

Almost any Yankee who made the HOF since then has been a no-doubt first ballot guy. Except maybe Gossage and Hunter. Hunter was a bad pick by SABR stats but at the time he went in I don't think he was considered borderline.

Gossage is borderline, took 9 ballots to get in. Maybe he doesn't if his prime years came in Detroit or Pittsburgh? I don't know.

OK how about the Mets? All their pitchers who made the HOF were no-doubters. Among the hitters Carter and Piazza took a few more ballots than they should but both are among the top half dozen catchers to ever play the game. Rickey, Eddie Murray, Willie Mays didn't need their Mets years to be first ballot inductees.

Who does that leave? Alomar? Ashburn? Ashburn played one year, and well, for one of the worst and most comical teams ever in 1962. Alomar, if anything, delayed his HOF chances thanks to his play for the Mets.


You mostly answered your own question: Hunter, Gossage, some old-timey guys like Rizzuto and Lazzeri and even (gasp!) Whitey Ford. Plus the Gil Hodges candidacy, which came as close as possible to getting him over the hump without actually doing so, and wouldn't have been a quarter as successful if he'd spent his whole career in, say, Milwaukee.

If you don't think I'm right, that's fine. Just wait and watch the machine start firing up for Andy Pettitte in a few years.
   31. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:33 AM (#5305279)
I would like to see him make it, but I think he also suffers from the did every thing well, but nothing was outstanding. He was a good defender at a premium position, but only 3 gold gloves. Great baserunner, but not Rickey Henderson. Good power, but only 420 HRs. Good hitter with good OBP, but only a .282 career hitter.
   32. DanG Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:55 AM (#5305310)
hey yeah all he ever did was help his team win a lot of games its called the hall of FAME what did he ever do that was FAMOUS!!!!!
   33. JohnQ Posted: September 23, 2016 at 12:02 PM (#5305314)
I think the strongest argument Beltran has among the traditional voters is: 2500 hits, 400 HR, 1500 RBI, 1500 Runs, 300 Stolen Bases. Only Mays, Bonds, and A-Rod had ever accomplished that. Add 3 gold gloves in Center Field and his post season accomplishments and that should be enough.

Beltran actually has 2600 hits and 420 HR. He also had 4500+ total bases which is impressive when you considered he played Center Field most of his career.

1500 RBI & 1500 Runs has basically been an automatic ticket to the HOF. Only 33 players have ever done that. I think every 1500&1500; eligible player not linked to steroids is in the HOF. Beltran actually has a really good shot to make the 1600Rbi & 1600Runs list. Only 21 players have ever done that.
   34. Man o' Schwar Posted: September 23, 2016 at 12:07 PM (#5305318)
Beltran could also be the next Larry Walker, the Colorado Rockies legend and former National League MVP who at last check was struggling to stay above 10 percent in the writers’ vote for Cooperstown. Walker actually rates far above Beltran by Hall Rating and is roughly comparable by JAWS, though if he gets in the Hall of Fame, it seems likely to come via committee. Former Rockies seem to fall into their own special class of candidates.

I think you hit the problem with Walker - everything he did gets discounted by voters who assume that their grandmothers could hit .270 with 25 HRs playing 81 games a year in Colorado.

To me Beltran is a hair of a notch above Jim Edmonds, another guy who is probably going to struggle to make it but who deserves a decent look.
   35. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 23, 2016 at 12:16 PM (#5305326)
To me Beltran is a hair of a notch above Jim Edmonds, another guy who is probably going to struggle to make it but who deserves a decent look.


Jim Edmonds was on the BBWAA ballot last year. He got 11 votes - 2.5% - and won't be appearing for a second time. I would expect Beltran to do quite a bit better than that.
   36. stanmvp48 Posted: September 23, 2016 at 12:32 PM (#5305333)
The problem with Larry Walker is that he only had 8,000 Plate Appearances.
   37. DanG Posted: September 23, 2016 at 12:55 PM (#5305356)
1500 RBI & 1500 Runs has basically been an automatic ticket to the HOF. Only 33 players have ever done that. I think every 1500&1500; eligible player not linked to steroids is in the HOF.
Pretty much.

Players with at least 1350 RBI and Runs, outside the HOF, retiring 2010 or before:

Rk               Player WAR/pos    R  RBI From   To
1           Barry Bonds   162.4 2227 1996 1986 2007
2          Jeff Bagwell    79.6 1517 1529 1991 2005
3       Rafael Palmeiro    71.6 1663 1835 1986 2005
4          Dwight Evans    66.9 1470 1384 1972 1991
5        Gary Sheffield    60.3 1636 1676 1988 2009
6            Sammy Sosa    58.4 1475 1667 1989 2007
7         Luis Gonzalez    51.5 1412 1439 1990 2008 
   38. The Duke Posted: September 23, 2016 at 01:00 PM (#5305362)
He was one of those guys when he was playing that I thought, there's a hall of famer. Sounds like I am in the minority but I like 5 tool guys. I'm assuming he did not do steroids. When you strip out all his contemporaries who did, his numbers look better. He might not get to 3000 hits but he will get close.

I don't see him struggling that much to get in. Standards for new inductees have been very high recently but I think he benefits as being someone without the steroid taint and his post-season hitting is one of the best ever. That will be his story. He shouldn't be blamed that wainwright threw one of the best curveballs ever.
   39. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 23, 2016 at 01:11 PM (#5305377)
Which borderline player got a NY boost to put him over the hump?


Rizzuto, maybe, but from what I've read it was pretty tireless advocacy on his behalf by specific individuals- including Ted Williams (and I don't think Ted was thinking, gee Phil played in NY...)

You mostly answered your own question: Hunter, Gossage, some old-timey guys like Rizzuto and Lazzeri and even (gasp!) Whitey Ford. Plus the Gil Hodges candidacy, which came as close as possible to getting him over the hump without actually doing so, and wouldn't have been a quarter as successful if he'd spent his whole career in, say, Milwaukee.

If you don't think I'm right,


you're wrong, hilariously wrong:
Hunter (bad choice no doubt), got in because he was an iconic player in one of the iconic teams (the A's) of his generation, plus he won 20 games 5 times in a row, BBWAA members used to drool over that kind of thing, hsui Yankee "career" was an afterthought.

Gossage is vastly more qualified than some other relievers who got in (3rd all the among relievers in WAR), like Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers, in fact I think it's pretty clear that the election of an obviously inferior player-Sutter lead pretty directly to Goose's selection. You can say that the Hall is too willing to admit closers (And I'd agree), but they set the bar so far below Gossage claiming that he was borderline and only got in because of NY! is absurd.


I'll give you Hodges, maybe.




   40. Man o' Schwar Posted: September 23, 2016 at 01:26 PM (#5305392)
Jim Edmonds was on the BBWAA ballot last year. He got 11 votes - 2.5% - and won't be appearing for a second time. I would expect Beltran to do quite a bit better than that.

Really? I can't believe it's been 6 years since he retired. Feels like it was just recently.

Damn time moves fast. And he got screwed - given the people who seem to linger on the ballot with 5%+ every year, he should have done better than 11 votes. A victim of the overstuffed ballot, probably.
   41. DanG Posted: September 23, 2016 at 01:32 PM (#5305404)
Won't the glut be over by the time he appears on the ballot? Assuming he at least plays next year, we're talking 2022.
Ballotgeddon rolls into year #5 with the coming election in 2017. Headliners adding to the glut are Vladimir Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Jorge Posada.

In 2018 we get Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel and Scott Rolen. In 2019 we get Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, and Andy Pettitte.

Not until the 2020 election does Ballotgeddon begin to abate. Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff will fall off the ballot after 2019. Derek Jeter will have his coronation that year, with no other viable newbies entering the ballot.

Again in 2021 the glut continues to ease. Larry Walker is off the ballot and Tim Hudson tops the slate of newbies.

We’ll see who retires this year and comes on the ballot for the 2022 election. But after that election we say goodbye to Bonds and Clemens; also Schilling and Sosa if they’re still hanging around.

So if Beltran plays after this year he won't be on the ballot with Bonds and Clemens. Unless they change the rules again.

Future Eligibles
   42. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 01:43 PM (#5305419)
Just read this thread, good read, and nearly everyone was right, even when saying something opposite of someone else.

Arom is pointing out that New York doesn't put people over the hump, but there is a case to be made that New York puts players on the radar who don't deserve the support that they are getting (As mentioned Mattingly is a big name, but even Thurman Munson managed to stay on the ballot for 15 years despite being roughly equivalent to one and done candidates like Ted Simmons or Bill Freehan---yes the whole death thing helped a bit, but 20 years seems like a long time to be holding onto that.) Same can be said about Roger Maris, Don Larsen, Elston Howard, Gil Hodges etc. A regular player with a 10 year or longer career in New York can count on an automatic 5-8% of the vote, enough to keep them on the ballot.


I also think that the voting electorate is changing and that Beltran has a very good shot of getting in because of that, he's not going to be Trammelled because the voters can't recognize an all around player any more.


I disagree with the comment that people didn't consider Beltran as a future hofer though, at least in his years in KC, there seemed to be talk about if he keeps this up, he's a future hofer. I think that once he left KC it became tougher for him to keep that label, especially after the poor first year after leaving. But a guy who was seen as a gold glove quality defender at center, who was capable of putting up 30/30 seasons was considered a future hofer. It didn't take knowing about advance stats, just that he was the current version of Eric Davis and if he stays healthy he might reach the heights that Davis wasn't able to.


   43. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 01:53 PM (#5305438)
As for New York, isn't the lasting memory there of Beltran of him taking strike three to end the 2006 NLCS? Which not only undercuts the benefit of playing in New York, but also hurts the perception of him as a playoff performer

I agree that the called third is a big factor in his candidacy, and it will undermine his otherwise stellar postseason play.

If I had to guess, I'd say he doesn't get into the HOF.
   44. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 02:00 PM (#5305445)
I agree that the called third is a big factor in his candidacy, and it will undermine his otherwise stellar postseason play.

If I had to guess, I'd say he doesn't get into the HOF.


Beltran is probably the greatest post season hitter of all time, for that one ball to stick in everyone's memory is kinda a sad testament to peoples memory.
   45. Ithaca2323 Posted: September 23, 2016 at 02:16 PM (#5305463)
Beltran seems like a slam dunk to me.

He's got a good chance at 3,000 hits, 450 HR, which from a CF, are going to look great to traditionalists. Saber voters are going to see that 70 WAR and love it. The ballot backlog should be clear. I think he gets 50% the first year and is in by year 3.
   46. GregD Posted: September 23, 2016 at 02:28 PM (#5305485)
He's got a good chance at 3,000 hits, 450 HR,
Cana 39 year old who is 388 hits away be said to have a "good chance"? Would agree he has a chance but wouldn't bet on it
   47. Khrushin it bro Posted: September 23, 2016 at 02:35 PM (#5305502)
You guys are missing the point here. Beltran's biggest problem getting into the hall of fame is that he's not that interesting.
   48. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 02:49 PM (#5305526)
Cana 39 year old who is 388 hits away be said to have a "good chance"? Would agree he has a chance but wouldn't bet on it


That is what I was thinking, he's signed for next year so he will probably be given every chance in the world to play and probably picks up 150 or so hits, but either way you look at it, he has to play past 2017 to reach 3000 hits and 450 homeruns and to reach 3000 hits he has to play in 2019 more than likely.
   49. Oscar Geronimo Posted: September 23, 2016 at 02:55 PM (#5305531)
Strange case and good thread. I feel like a bad person writing this, but I would prefer him not to make the HOF. The 70 WAR are nice, but ultimately meaningless if you take the "Fame" part of the Hall seriously: he's been more of a compiler than a perennial star, and the postseason heroics are sort of moot when they don't result in a championship.

He seems like a great guy and he's no Jim Rice, but the day I'd take my kids to Cooperstown, I wouldn't miss Carlos Beltran.

Edit: or, I guess, what 47 said.
   50. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 23, 2016 at 03:00 PM (#5305535)
Cana 39 year old who is 388 hits away be said to have a "good chance"? Would agree he has a chance but wouldn't bet on it


One of his BBREF comps got 388 hits after this point- Dave Winfield (Ironically when Boras was handling Beltran back in 2004 he prepared a carer projection for Beltran modeled on Winfield's career- Winfield is now Beltran's #1 BBREF comp)
   51. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 03:05 PM (#5305538)

Edit: or, I guess, what 47 said.


I think 47 is a riff on another thread where someone said something similar about an all around player(it might have been Beltran)

Strange case and good thread. I feel like a bad person writing this, but I would prefer him not to make the HOF. The 70 WAR are nice, but ultimately meaningless if you take the "Fame" part of the Hall seriously: he's been more of a compiler than a perennial star, and the postseason heroics are sort of moot when they don't result in a championship.

He seems like a great guy and he's no Jim Rice, but the day I'd take my kids to Cooperstown, I wouldn't miss Carlos Beltran.


Fame is unimportant, and he's far from a compiler, he was a pretty excellent player for KC. He put up 29 war in his first six full seasons, that is a hof type of player. Just because you wouldn't go for a guy shouldn't really matter, the hof is composed of a ton of great players who aren't destination players, they make it complete. The hof loses legitimacy when it doesn't induct the best available players and instead focus on the crappy players because of narrative, the hof with Jim Rice is much lesser a hof than a hof with Carlos Beltran. The utter waste of spaces like Jim Rice need a dozen Beltrans to make up for including such a tremendously crappy selection.
   52. dlf Posted: September 23, 2016 at 03:09 PM (#5305543)
The real HOF boost for NY players isn't for NYY players, its for the Frankie Frisch era Giants. Guys like George Kelly, Ross Young, Rube Marquard, etc. But this boost was in a version of the Veterans Committee that died roughly the same time that the DH was introduced.
   53. Sleepless in Munich Posted: September 23, 2016 at 03:18 PM (#5305555)
It took me several comments to realize that this was about Carlos Beltran, not Adrian Beltre. If some writers confuse them when Beltran becomes eligible, that might help him. If not, he will probably need a pretty good campaign to even get close to induction.
   54. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 03:25 PM (#5305562)
It took me several comments to realize that this was about Carlos Beltran, not Adrian Beltre. If some writers confuse them when Beltran becomes eligible, that might help him. If not, he will probably need a pretty good campaign to even get close to induction.


Why? Tim Raines is a good comparison, and he's at least going to be on the ballot for every year of eligibility. Beltran is a better fielder, and more power, Raines has the stolen bases and better obp, but as far as overall numbers is concerned they look very comparable. Add in Beltran's post season success by being the best post season hitter of all time, and you have a guy who is going to get votes. And when the Rangers beat the Cubs in the World Series, and Beltran wins world series mvp, that cements it. :)

   55. SandyRiver Posted: September 23, 2016 at 03:32 PM (#5305571)
Beltran is probably the greatest post season hitter of all time, for that one ball to stick in everyone's memory is kinda a sad testament to peoples memory.
Beltran's post season success by being the best post season hitter of all time


I'd give that title to Ruth - .470/.744/1.214 in 167 PA vs. .441/.674/1.115 in 223 PA - but 2nd behind the Babe among those reaching a certain PA threshold (50? 100?) is still great. And the rest of the two posts from which I mined are on target.

Edit: Gehrig was pretty good, too - exact same OPS as Ruth, in 17 fewer PA but with .013 higher OBP. 3rd for Carlos?
   56. Kurt Posted: September 23, 2016 at 03:53 PM (#5305596)
You mostly answered your own question: Hunter, Gossage, some old-timey guys like Rizzuto and Lazzeri and even (gasp!) Whitey Ford. Plus the Gil Hodges candidacy, which came as close as possible to getting him over the hump without actually doing so, and wouldn't have been a quarter as successful if he'd spent his whole career in, say, Milwaukee.


I don't think "three or four guys who spent part of their careers in this city are in the Hall of Fame although maybe they shouldn't be" is exclusive to New York.

I you don't think I'm right, that's fine. Just wait and watch the machine start firing up for Andy Pettitte in a few years.


And if it no-shows for Pettitte the way it did for Bernie Williams, then what?


   57. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:06 PM (#5305613)

I don't think "three or four guys who spent part of their careers in this city are in the Hall of Fame although maybe they shouldn't be" is exclusive to New York.


Agree there, I'm a Cardinal fan and we have Sutter, Dean, Brock, Schoendist, Bottomley, Haines, who by War are all bad candidates.
   58. Sleepless in Munich Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:07 PM (#5305615)
I think there s no doubt that Beltran will always get enough votes to stay on the ballot. But induction is another matter.

Tim Raines is a good comparison, and he's at least going to be on the ballot for every year of eligibility. Beltran is a better fielder, and more power, Raines has the stolen bases and better obp, but as far as overall numbers is concerned they look very comparable. Add in Beltran's post season success by being the best post season hitter of all time, and you have a guy who is going to get votes.


That guy is going into the HOF. But the guy who was traded away by three different teams, couldn't deliver on his big contract (like Kevin Brown), only had an OPS of .694 in the WS and froze in his biggest postseason AB (unlike a true playoff hero like David Ortiz) and was around forever but didn't even get to 3,000 hits (unlike Adrian Beltre) - that guy might be stuck in the 20s.
That's why I think his campaign matters a lot.
   59. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:13 PM (#5305619)
That guy is going into the HOF. But the guy who was traded away by three different teams, couldn't deliver on his big contract (like Kevin Brown), only had an OPS of .694 in the WS and froze in his biggest postseason AB (unlike a true playoff hero like David Ortiz) and was around forever but didn't even get to 3,000 hits (unlike Adrian Beltre) - that guy might be stuck in the 20s.
That's why I think his campaign matters a lot.


And I think his campaign will be fine, the writers are actually becoming competent to an extent, we are getting rid of the fossils who can't think and held onto a job for decades simply because there were thousands of jobs, now it pays to either be 1. competent or 2. toxic, and the toxic guys have a limited number of paying gigs. The death of newspapers is probably the best thing to happen to the hall of fame.

Of course my comment was about close to induction, and I think he'll easily clear the 40% threshold while being eligible, and I consider that to be close to induction.
   60. Rally Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:15 PM (#5305621)
The real HOF boost for NY players isn't for NYY players, its for the Frankie Frisch era Giants.


That, and for Yankees who played a long time ago. The dynamics that worked for Combs and Lazzeri were not there for Randolph and Nettles and Bernie.
   61. DanG Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:25 PM (#5305632)
Similar career WAR to Beltran:

91. Johnny Mize+ (15) 71.0
92. Bobby Grich (17) 70.9
93. Frankie Frisch+ (19) 70.4
......Red Ruffing+ (22) 70.4
......Ron Santo+ (15) 70.4
......Alan Trammell (20) 70.4
97. Carlos Beltran (19) 70.3
98. Barry Larkin+ (19) 70.2
99. Rick Reuschel (19) 70.0
......Scott Rolen (17) 70.0
101. Gary Carter+ (19) 69.9

75 WAR is about the maximum a guy can have and still not be noticed by the BBWAA voters.
   62. Sleepless in Munich Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:31 PM (#5305639)
Of course my comment was about close to induction, and I think he'll easily clear the 40% threshold while being eligible, and I consider that to be close to induction.


That seems to be a pretty low bar to me. Alan Trammell got 40.9% in his last year, but was he really "close to induction"?
   63. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:36 PM (#5305643)

That seems to be a pretty low bar to me. Alan Trammell got 40.9% in his last year, but was he really "close to induction"?


I guess it depends, reaching 40% in your first five years is a lot different than reaching it in your 15th year. So I guess I should have clarified it, I think Beltran, depending on who's on the ballot gets to 40% sometime in his first 6 years on the ballot in a worst case scenario.
   64. Ithaca2323 Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:41 PM (#5305648)
Cana 39 year old who is 388 hits away be said to have a "good chance"? Would agree he has a chance but wouldn't bet on it


Good might be overstating it, but he's posted a 120 and 124 OPS+ these last two seasons. That strikes me as a bit more than a dead cat bounce. Is it out of the question he could provide two seasons of solid DH work before going somewhere warm to get the last 75 or so hits in obscurity?

As far as his postseason numbers, it's certainly possible people will focus on his 17 WS at bats and Game 7 of the NLCS exclusively. But I think a whole lot more will remember that he was an outstanding overall postseason hitter.
   65. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:45 PM (#5305651)
Good might be overstating it, but he's posted a 120 and 124 OPS+ these last two seasons. That strikes me as a bit more than a dead cat bounce. Is it out of the question he could provide two seasons of solid DH work before going somewhere warm to get the last 75 or so hits in obscurity?


Decent chance would have been fine, it really depends on if he wants to stick around and get 3000 hits or not, if he decides that it's important, and doesn't have a terrible season next year, he will more than likely make it to 3000, but he does need to put up at least a 95 ops+ next year over 400 pa to have any chance of getting a job in 2018. And still needs to do well enough to get at least an NRI invite from someone in 2019.
   66. SandyRiver Posted: September 23, 2016 at 04:51 PM (#5305659)
his 17 WS at bats


And most of those came after he crunched his ribs on the Fenway fence while robbing Ortiz of another PS slam. Having had rib-area injuries, I'm guessing that every swing brought a significant stab of pain, and he still did better than most of his teammates.
   67. The Duke Posted: September 23, 2016 at 05:09 PM (#5305687)
His defense really started to decline after the Mets and by the time he finished with Cards he needed to go the DH route but he's still a very good hitter and if he can do two more years at anything near what he did for the last two, he'll go in as a no-brainer. My initial comments are whether he goes in based off his stats to-date. But two more years and 3000 hits or very close to it makes him a shoo-in.

Surprised people don't remember how well he was thought of early in his career. Maybe because it happened in non-media markets but he was just a shade below Bryce Harper in his early years in terms of potential.
   68. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 05:14 PM (#5305693)

Surprised people don't remember how well he was thought of early in his career. Maybe because it happened in non-media markets but he was just a shade below Bryce Harper in his early years in terms of potential.


Agreed, he was a fairly huge name as a Royal, at least as big of a name a Royal could get, while playing for those Royal teams.
   69. Khrushin it bro Posted: September 23, 2016 at 05:30 PM (#5305708)
I remember being mad the A's got Dotel when Houston got Beltre.

#51 The comment was from the why Mike Trout doesn't get the MVP every year thread.

EDIT: Looked up that trade

June 24, 2004: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Kansas City Royals to the Houston Astros. The Oakland Athletics sent Mark Teahen and Mike Wood to the Kansas City Royals. The Houston Astros sent Octavio Dotel to the Oakland Athletics. The Houston Astros sent John Buck and cash to the Kansas City Royals.

No wonder the Royals sucked for so long haha.
   70. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 23, 2016 at 05:42 PM (#5305718)
June 24, 2004: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Kansas City Royals to the Houston Astros. The Oakland Athletics sent Mark Teahen and Mike Wood to the Kansas City Royals. The Houston Astros sent Octavio Dotel to the Oakland Athletics. The Houston Astros sent John Buck and cash to the Kansas City Royals.


One thing I remember about that deal was an interview a year or so later with Teahen- he'd been one of the A's "Money Ball" draftees, and in the book it's explicitly mentioned that the A's philosophy was to NOT look for guys who were projects who you had to break down and re-teach how to swing the bat, etc. Teahen said that from day one in the A's system that's exactly what they did, "You don't know how to swing, here let us show you"

There were a couple other things, but I've long since come to the conclusion that either the A's misled Lewis about how they actually operated, or Lewis created his own narrative and shoehorned the A's/Beane into it (or both), either way it's a bad piece of reporting.
   71. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 05:49 PM (#5305723)
#51 The comment was from the why Mike Trout doesn't get the MVP every year thread.


At least I got that it was a riff on another thread, just couldn't remember which great all around player we were talking about, Trout would have been one of my guesses, as we have had several Trout and Beltran threads this season.
   72. GregD Posted: September 23, 2016 at 06:11 PM (#5305737)
Has anyone looked systematically at the HoM/not HoF guys and the HoF/not HoM guys to see if there are any telling trends? My wild ass guess would be no, given the differences in how people have and haven't been elected in different eras, but it would be fascinating to be proven wrong
   73. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 23, 2016 at 06:29 PM (#5305746)
Has anyone looked systematically at the HoM/not HoF guys and the HoF/not HoM guys to see if there are any telling trends? My wild ass guess would be no, given the differences in how people have and haven't been elected in different eras, but it would be fascinating to be proven wrong


I did, using my Player won-lost records. The article talks in the language of my Player won-lost records, but I think there's some insight to be gleaned there. The article - here - automatically updates data but hasn't had its text updated since I last updated my data, so some of the text doesn't exactly match the tables (the tables are always correct; I'll try to update the text tonight). (The HOF/HOM comp starts about 2/3 of the way down in the article)
   74. Squash Posted: September 23, 2016 at 07:12 PM (#5305758)
One thing I remember about that deal was an interview a year or so later with Teahen- he'd been one of the A's "Money Ball" draftees, and in the book it's explicitly mentioned that the A's philosophy was to NOT look for guys who were projects who you had to break down and re-teach how to swing the bat, etc.

I don't remember that from the book - do you have a reference? I gave away my copy years ago and never got it back.
   75. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2016 at 07:16 PM (#5305760)
the writers are actually becoming competent to an extent, we are getting rid of the fossils who can't think

I don't think there's much evidence of this really. If you look at the new voters over the last few years (in Ryan Thibs' database), you see pretty standard voting patterns. They aren't strong supporters of saber-faves Bagwell or Edgar, they aren't Walker supporters ... they aren't even particularly strong Raines supporters as I recall. They aren't supporting Bonds/Clemens in any great fashion. They've been pretty good on Schilling and Mussina.

And even among our crowd -- Walker doesn't have a ton of support around here, certainly doesn't seem to be considered an obvious candidate. Plenty here wonder if OPS+ and WAR are sufficiently correcting for Coors and many question the relevance of Rfield to any candidacy. The man's got 73 WAR and a staggering 48 WAA and few here seem annoyed by his lousy performance on the ballot. Dwight Evans gets more sympathy ... heck, Darrell Evans might get more sympathy. If that's true here, why would we expect that not to be true for the BBWAA over the next decade even if they move further in a "sabermetric" direction?

It is true enough that with the decline of papers and other steady baseball writing jobs (and companies willing to pay/subsidize the cost of BBWAA membership) that the BBWAA is undergoing substantial change and it's not clear who's going to be eligible to vote in 10 years. That makes it difficult to project any trends in voter attitude. But early returns aren't particularly encouraging.

And understand how dramatic change has to be to really make a difference. Let's say there were 600 voters and we had a Trammell-like candidate who got 140 votes (just over 23%). Even if we remove 100 troglodytes and not a single one of those voters was a Trammell supporter, that would only move him to 140 votes out of 500 or 28%. That helps but it's not a major difference. Suppose we add 50 smart voters who are all Trammell supporters, that only moves him to 34.5%. In reality, it's more along the lines of 12 voters added per year and we just had the one big-time cull. BBWAA demgographic change might push Beltran up 5-10% higher on his first ballot -- which could make a big difference in eventual induction -- but it's not gonna move him from borderline to 1st-2nd ballot.

If there's a trend, it's that the saber fan is much more vocal than in the past and that the voters respond to that -- sometimes positively, sometimes negatively. Campaigns such as those for Blyleven and Raines can make a difference now. But the campaign for Raines comes, to an extent, at the cost of Bagwell (delayed), Edgar and Walker. If Beltran becomes a saber cause celebre, he will probably make it in reasonably easily ... and the only other guy likely vying for saber affection and entering the ballot about the same time will be Utley who probably doesn't stand a chance even with a full Blyleven campaign behind him.

Beltran might also be hurt by timing. If he retires this year, he debuts on the same ballot as Ortiz; if he retires next year, he'll debut on the same ballot as Ichiro (unless I missed a retirement announcement). Rightly or not, he loses on postseason heroics to Ortiz; rightly or not, he loses on "overall greatness" to Ichiro.

However, after that, it looks like there's going to be a huge fallow period. Beltre will come on and will make it easily with 3000 hits. Pujols won't really interfere with Beltran. But other than Utley, there is little/no position player competition other than possibly an early-finished David Wright. There will eventually be Miggy and Cano but they are both 6 years younger so Beltran (and anybody left from Vlad, IRod, etc) should have the ballot pretty much to himself for a few years.

Not sure folks have realized how fallow the HoF options are looking down the track. There are only 15 active players over 51 WAR. The ones likely to retire by the end of the 2020 season or earlier:

ARod -- 2016, probably unelectable
Beltre -- slam dunk with 3000 hits
Beltran -- borderline
Utley -- no real chance
Ichiro -- slam dunk
CC -- borderline, probably not
Ortiz -- slam dunk
Tex -- no chance

Pujols may be retired by then but his contract runs through 2021. I won't be surprised if there's some sort of ARod situation before this contract runs out and that his last season is 2020 or earlier. Ian Kinsler (52 WAR, age 34) probably won't play in 2021 but he's got no real shot at the HoF. Wright (50 WAR), Verlander (49), Mauer (50) might be retired before 2021 but they've got some work to do for strong HoF cases -- I'm reasonably sympathetic to all as peak candidates and Verlander and Mauer might be strong enough BBWAA candidates with the hardware.

Other likely/reasonable HoFers and their ages in the 2020 season:

37 -- Cabrera, Cano
36 -- Greinke (54 WAR), Hamels (51), Pedroia (50)
34 -- Felix (52)
32 -- Kershaw

Miggy and Cano have contracts that run through 2023 so there's a good chance they don't hit the ballot until 2029. Greinke's contract runs through 2021. Hamels and Pedroia need to do more to reach borderline and, if they've done that by age 36 then they're probably still producing well enough that there will be another 3-4 years before they retire. A reasonably healthy Felix doesn't retire until 2025.

So likely retirement years for 1st ballot inductees:

2016: Ortiz
2017: Ichiro
2018: Beltre
2021: Pujols
2023: Cano/Cabrera

With only Pujols in that 4-year period, the backlog and new borderline candidates will benefit. From the HoF induction weekend attendance standpoint:

2017: backlog/weak
2018: Chipper
2019: Mo
2020: Jeter
2021: backlog
2022: Ortiz
2023: Ichiro
2024: Beltre (not a strong draw)

So they're in pretty good shape to that point, assuming somebody gets elected in 2017 (almost guaranteed) and 2021 (maybe not). (Not implying there won't be other players elected in this time frame, just that the additional induction of the likes of Mussina, Vlad, Thome, Halladay, etc. aren't likely to have a huge additional impact on attendance.) After 2024, they could be in trouble ... which bodes well for Beltran's chances.

Taken in that context, I like Beltran's chances. He should be able to make it in much the same way Dawson did. We've entered a period a bit like the 80s where dominant players with long careers were few and far between. Similarly we're seeing a further reduction in SP usage which means the voters will have to adapt to electing pitchers with, say, 2800-3200 inning careers but that may take a while.** So borderline position player candidates probably have a good shot.

** They're having a hard enough time with Mussina and Schilling, Halladay didn't even make it to 2800 innings but was at least dominant (2 CYA, 2 2nds, 3 more top 5, lots of black ink). Greinke is just at 2250 IP and averaged just 190 per over the last 4 -- at this stage I'm not sure he projects to reach 3200. Verlander is just over 2300. Hamels is at 2200 and hasn't been particularly dominant. Either the BBWAA adopts more of a peak/excellence model for SP or almost none of them will get elected under current usage.
   76. Walt Davis Posted: September 23, 2016 at 07:33 PM (#5305771)
Surprised people don't remember how well he was thought of early in his career. Maybe because it happened in non-media markets but he was just a shade below Bryce Harper in his early years in terms of potential.

Huh? The young Beltran was certainly seen as a very nice player, plenty of potential, but nothing like a prospect stud like Harper. He didn't make the majors for good until age 22, didn't start hitting above league-average until age 24. He was always seen as good defense, good/great baserunning, nice hitter ... never "OMG, he could be the next Willie Mays" or anything like that. According to BA, he was just the #14 prospect entering that age 22 season (from b-r). He had been top 100 entering his age 20 season but had a bad year and wasn't ranked at all for age 21.

He did win RoY in that age 22 season but it was a fairly weak class and he was the only full-time position player rookie. And, per WAR, he was 3rd in rookie WAR to Freddy Garcia (finished 2nd) and (barely) Chris Singleton who actually outhit Beltran (but Singleton was 26).
   77. The Duke Posted: September 23, 2016 at 07:42 PM (#5305777)
In my neck of the woods in St. Louis Beltran was certainly considered a star and potential HOF but like I said that reputation may have been regional. I'm biased though I always liked players who could do it all.
   78. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 08:18 PM (#5305794)
And even among our crowd -- Walker doesn't have a ton of support around here, certainly doesn't seem to be considered an obvious candidate. Plenty here wonder if OPS+ and WAR are sufficiently correcting for Coors and many question the relevance of Rfield to any candidacy. The man's got 73 WAR and a staggering 48 WAA and few here seem annoyed by his lousy performance on the ballot. Dwight Evans gets more sympathy ... heck, Darrell Evans might get more sympathy. If that's true here, why would we expect that not to be true for the BBWAA over the next decade even if they move further in a "sabermetric" direction?


Walker has an issue with not being able to stay in the lineup, the raw war total is nice, but he hurts his team on a seasonal basis by missing 30 games a year. And since he plays a corner position, a position which isn't well known for being injury prone he gets docked for that.

Beltran might also be hurt by timing. If he retires this year, he debuts on the same ballot as Ortiz; if he retires next year, he'll debut on the same ballot as Ichiro (unless I missed a retirement announcement). Rightly or not, he loses on postseason heroics to Ortiz; rightly or not, he loses on "overall greatness" to Ichiro.


Barring a pre-season injury next year, he's absolutely playing next year since he's under contract.

The comparison between Harper and Beltran is over stated, but Beltran was absolutely viewed as a stud among the fans in the know when he played in KC.
   79. GregD Posted: September 23, 2016 at 08:23 PM (#5305798)
I did, using my Player won-lost records. The article talks in the language of my Player won-lost records, but I think there's some insight to be gleaned there. The article - here - automatically updates data but hasn't had its text updated since I last updated my data, so some of the text doesn't exactly match the tables (the tables are always correct; I'll try to update the text tonight). (The HOF/HOM comp starts about 2/3 of the way down in the article)
Thanks! This is really interesting.

From your list of post-1945 players, it looks like the primary thing to be learned is: Don't play in Detroit. Of the 19 players HoM, non-HOF, they had the heart of their career in:

Detroit 3 (Trammell, Whitaker, Freehan)
Yankees 2 (Randolph, Nettles)
Cardinals 2 (Ken Boyer, part of Ted Simmons and part of Hernandez)
Red Sox 1.5 (Dw Evans part of Reggie Smith)
Cubs 1 (Reuschel--you could give part of him to the Giants)
Astros 1 (Jimmy Wynn)
Giants 1 (Will Clark)
Blue Jays 1 (Stieb)
White Sox 1 (Pierce)
Mets .5 (Hernandez)
Brewers .5 (Ted Simmons)
Orioles .5 (Grich)
Angels .5 (Grich)
Dodgers .5 (part of Reggie Smith)


Multiples you could argue over how to split up
Darrell Evans (Tigers/Giants/Braves)
David Cone (Mets, Royals, Yankees)
Saberhagen (Royals, Mets, Red Sox)
   80. PreservedFish Posted: September 23, 2016 at 08:52 PM (#5305813)
Surprised people don't remember how well he was thought of early in his career. Maybe because it happened in non-media markets but he was just a shade below Bryce Harper in his early years in terms of potential.


This is not remotely true. And I was reading Royals fan Rob Neyer daily back in those days. Beltran was a very good prospect but when young not really considered a special player. (Harper is up there with Griffey Jr and Andruw Jones as certainly one of the 10 most hyped prospects ever.) You would've found Beltran ranked right next to guys like Ruben Mateo and Alex Escobar and Gabe Kapler. Then he had a fine Rookie Year to separate him from such company but it took a little while to flash superstar potential. Mookie Betts might be a better comparison, or even someone like Christian Yelich. People weren't screaming about 40 HR + Gold Glove talent when he came up, which in retrospect is surprising, but it's true.
   81. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:02 PM (#5305822)

This is not remotely true. And I was reading Royals fan Rob Neyer daily back in those days. Beltran was a very good prospect but not considered a special player by any means. (Harper is up there with Griffey Jr and Andruw Jones as certainly one of the 10 most hyped prospects ever.) You would've found Beltran ranked right next to guys like Ruben Mateo and Alex Escobar and Gabe Kapler. He had a fine Rookie Year but took a little while to flash superstar potential. Mookie Betts might be a better comparison, or even someone like Christian Yelich.


And by his fifth year in the majors he was closer to Buster Posey type of player and respect. It's not about his prospect status, it's about where he was at any point in time, and by his fifth year in the majors he was considered a potential future hofer by those who don't live in Bawston/New York.

Comparing him to Betts is just a joke of monumental proportions, a guy who has one decent year compared to a guy who had close to 30 war after 6 full seasons in the majors.
   82. Rally Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:38 PM (#5305834)
Dude, Mookie has 17 WAR in 2 1/3 seasons. If he keeps this up it will be a joke to compare Beltran to his Mookness. If Mookie regresses a bit, he looks pretty likely to be around 30 WAR when he gets to 6 seasons.

Beltran was considered great as in "this guy can be/is one of the best players in the game". There's a level above that, guys who are looked at as potential legends, among the very best of all time. Harper, Griffey, A-Rod, Trout, Andruw Jones were there. A lot of it is excellence at very early ages. Jones didn't quite reach that level, but he was considered a possibility. Beltran was a notch below.

Beltran's rookie year was good, counting stats, speed, defense, but his OPS+ was only 99. He was 24 before he had a really great year.
   83. homerwannabee Posted: September 23, 2016 at 09:53 PM (#5305844)
If he can have just a couple more Ok years, I think he makes it. I mean he does have an outside shot still at 3000.
   84. PreservedFish Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:01 PM (#5305847)
Comparing him to Betts is just a joke of monumental proportions


I think it's a fine comparison.
   85. DavidFoss Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:05 PM (#5305851)
Beltran Prospect Retro written by Sickels in 2007 based on what he wrote in previous prospect books:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/3/22/105656/597
   86. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:24 PM (#5305864)
Dude, Mookie has 17 WAR in 2 1/3 seasons. If he keeps this up it will be a joke to compare Beltran to his Mookness. If Mookie regresses a bit, he looks pretty likely to be around 30 WAR when he gets to 6 seasons.


Sure, after five seasons if he is still putting up 5+ war with it being offensively based, then sure, but as it stands he's just a hot couple of years, and only an idiot would say a two year player is on a hof path. If he has 30 war(primarily offense based) and is still producing 130 ops+ seasons after his 6th major league season, then sure it would make sense to say he's on a hof path, but nobody after 2 seasons is on a hof path, I don't care if it's Pujols or Trout or whoever you want to grab in history.
   87. PreservedFish Posted: September 23, 2016 at 10:35 PM (#5305871)
Cfb, I don't know how you got confused about this one, but the talk was of Beltran "in his early years." The comparisons to Harper and Betts both concerned Beltran as a youngster.
   88. cardsfanboy Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:11 PM (#5305897)
Cfb, I don't know how you got confused about this one, but the talk was of Beltran "in his early years." The comparisons to Harper and Betts both concerned Beltran as a youngster.


Of a 20 year career, I think of early years as being the first five or so, basically his KC career. There are no conclusions that can be gathered by a guy who has played two years, it's utterly ridiculous to compare players after 2 years other than to point out aberrations.
   89. The Duke Posted: September 23, 2016 at 11:41 PM (#5305913)
I had to go back to look. He was awesome in his KC/Astro career and he was young and he could do everything. Maybe his stats don't line up with Harper but his potential did. And in his day he was great lithe centerfielder not the lumbering old guy he is now.

Given Walts post above he should try to hang out a bit longer and give himself a clear path but either way I think he will go in.
   90. greenback wears sandals on his head Posted: September 24, 2016 at 02:01 AM (#5305938)
One thing I remember about that deal was an interview a year or so later with Teahen

That was written by Lewis, I think. Source. Him and Steve Stanley, the guy convinced that God wanted him to hit more home runs.
   91. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 24, 2016 at 06:28 AM (#5305958)
Why? Tim Raines is a good comparison, and he's at least going to be on the ballot for every year of eligibility. Beltran is a better fielder, and more power, Raines has the stolen bases and better obp, but as far as overall numbers is concerned they look very comparable.


But remembering this is the hall of FAME we are talking about, Raines has that "2nd best lead off guy ever" thing going. Most voters know he wasn't as good as Rickey!(who was?) but they still see that as a pretty darn good player and he has quite a bit of support.

I just think Beltran will struggle to gain a lot of support early. He'll need to build a case. He's been a terrific all around player with some pretty solid counting stats, but even now a lot of voters can't see the forest from the trees with this stuff.

If he loiters around as a quasi productive player and cobbles together the 3000 hits, then he'll sail in 3-4 votes. Otherwise I stick by my post at #3, that he'll be lucky to be around 25% in year 5.
   92. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: September 24, 2016 at 07:23 AM (#5305959)
But remembering this is the hall of FAME we are talking about, Raines has that "2nd best lead off guy ever" thing going. Most voters know he wasn't as good as Rickey!(who was?) but they still see that as a pretty darn good player and he has quite a bit of support.

Raines also has a decent argument as the best player in baseball in the mid-'80s, and is the highest-percentage high-volume base stealer ever. Unless he gets 3000 hits, I'm not sure what Beltran's hook is with the voters apart from his postseason hitting, and that's a tough argument to make for a player who doesn't have a ring.

I'd vote for him (if the ballot has space by then, at least), but if he were to retire at the end of this year (or have a bad year next season and then retire), I'd be surprised if he gets in.
   93. toratoratora Posted: September 24, 2016 at 08:26 AM (#5305964)
Thoughts:

1-I see Beltran as having issues. He falls into so many of the traps Bill James discussed. Played for multiple teams. Did many things well but not one thing great (OK-maybe Defense when he was young, but that's faded). Was good at many of the little things (Rbaser, Rdp, Rfield) that don't show up in the big three stats of RBI, BA and HR. What narrative he has (Great post season hitter) is muted by the fact that his most memorable moment was a called third strike. Played in NY but was often, fairly or not, perceived as an underachiever. Doesn't hit any big counting stats milestones (Note that this all changes if he gets 3,000 hits. Then I expect the narrative to 180 degrees reverse-"Great fielder, terrific baserunner,good power, 3000 hits!Like Ichiro with bop.")Does poorly on both black and grey ink. Closest comps are the non-HOF trio of Dewey, Torii and Luis Gonzales.
Plus there's Jim Edmunds lurking out there as well and I think people are going to say why Carlos and not Jim(Other than roids, that is)?

2-If he does make it with less than 3,000 hits, it will mean that a preponderance of writers have begun to buy into advanced stats. I just don't see scads of old school writers jumping on the Beltran bandwagon.

3-I think stats guys downplay and writers overplay narrative. That's why I see Vlad going in first vote and Beltran having issues. I could be wrong on that. Hell, I hope I am.
   94. cardsfanboy Posted: September 24, 2016 at 10:45 AM (#5305987)
I think that a guy like Beltran will do much better on a ballot seven years down the road, than the same guy would have done on the ballot 20 years ago, the writers are getting more competent.


3-I think stats guys downplay and writers overplay narrative. That's why I see Vlad going in first vote and Beltran having issues. I could be wrong on that. Hell, I hope I am.


I think stat guys around here overplay how much the writers overplay narrative when it comes to the hof. I don't see Vlad going in on the first vote, it helps that only him and Irod are new candidates on the ballot with any chance of going in(Manny is also deserving but will be lucky to make the 5%) , but it's also going to help the candidacy of Raines/Bagwell/Hoffman(who all should go in next year) and the other down ballot guys like Schilling/Mussina/etc. but I just don't see him getting enough first ballot support to go in his first year, but enough to top most of the names who are likely to not going in like Bonds)

Plus there's Jim Edmunds lurking out there as well and I think people are going to say why Carlos and not Jim(Other than roids, that is)?


Ignoring War, you are going to have Beltran with over 11,000 pa, and Edmonds with less than 8,000 pa. A guy with that few pa needs to have a stronger case than Edmonds has going for him.
   95. Sleepless in Munich Posted: September 24, 2016 at 11:38 AM (#5305995)
I think stat guys around here overplay how much the writers overplay narrative when it comes to the hof.


Based on recent examples, it's hard to overplay that. Kevin Brown, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina and John Smoltz all debuted on the HOF ballot from 2011-2015 and they were all essentially the same pitcher: 3256-3562 IP, 123-127 ERA+, 70-80 WAR. But their 1st year vote shares were wildly different - 2.1%, 20.3%, 38.8% and 82.9%, literally ranging from one-and-done to first-ballot Hall of Famer, based purely on narrative.
   96. cardsfanboy Posted: September 24, 2016 at 12:27 PM (#5306011)
Based on recent examples, it's hard to overplay that. Kevin Brown, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina and John Smoltz all debuted on the HOF ballot from 2011-2015 and they were all essentially the same pitcher: 3256-3562 IP, 123-127 ERA+, 70-80 WAR. But their 1st year vote shares were wildly different - 2.1%, 20.3%, 38.8% and 82.9%, literally ranging from one-and-done to first-ballot Hall of Famer, based purely on narrative.


Kevin Brown was an ass, had PED allegations surrounding him and appeared on a crowded ballot, Smoltz had the 150 saves. Basically Mussina and Schilling career value is very similar but the shape is different. Voters like a combo career and a noticeable peak, but eventually Mussina and Schilling both will make it, so 3 out of 4 eventually get in.

Career war is a starting point when looking at these guys, but nobody should be voting strictly based upon war/waa and if they are, they are just as clueless as the writers voting on RBI and batting average.


And of course based upon recent examples really doesn't deal with the electorate in 7+ years from now, the culling of the herd before this election led to an uptick of 7% for Bonds and Clemens, after being relatively stable in the 35-38% range they jumped to 44% this year. They are getting rid of the fossils who no longer are active writers and who refuse to even attempt to understand advanced stats. The gains aren't going to be immediate, but it does look like it's moving to a more competent body of electors.
   97. The Duke Posted: September 24, 2016 at 12:28 PM (#5306013)
Smoltz had better PR. Everyone always referred to him on broadcasts as "future hall of famer, John Smoltz".

Beltran should try that and have every one refer to him as the "best post-season player ever". That could stick as a good narrative.
   98. Ziggy: The Platonic Form of Russell Branyan Posted: September 24, 2016 at 12:35 PM (#5306019)
"he hurts his team on a seasonal basis by missing 30 games a year"

This helps his team, not hurts it. You're more help to your team putting up X WAR in Y-Z games than putting up X WAR in Y games.
   99. Sleepless in Munich Posted: September 24, 2016 at 12:50 PM (#5306023)
Kevin Brown was an ass, had PED allegations surrounding him and appeared on a crowded ballot


Narrative, narrative and false. Smoltz had the crowded ballot. Top 10 vote percentage starting from the highest, excluding the respective player:

KB: 90.0/79.7/62.1/53.5/45.3/41.7/37.5/32.9/24.3/20.3
JS: 97.3/91.1/82.7/69.9/55.7/55.0/39.2/37.5/36.8/30.2

Voters like a combo career and a noticeable peak


John Smoltz: Never had two consecutive 5+ WAR seasons, one run of three consecutive 4+ WAR seaons, second best season WAR of 5.9
Kevin Brown: Five consecutive seasons of 6.2+ WAR
   100. cardsfanboy Posted: September 24, 2016 at 01:14 PM (#5306031)
Narrative, narrative and false. Smoltz had the crowded ballot. Top 10 vote percentage starting from the highest, excluding the respective player:


Sure it's a narrative, about being an ass and PED allegations isn't "Narrative". and a crowded ballot, that featured Alomar and Blyleven going in, that featured first time nominees like Palmeiro, Bagwell, Walker, that included second year nominees like Larkin, Edgar and McGriff, and included Raines, McGwire, Murphy, Trammell....not to mention Jack Morris and Lee Smith.

Heck my ballot would have looked something like this
1. Blyleven, 2. Larkin, 3. McGwire 4. Palmiero, 5. Trammell, 6. Raines 7. Bagwell And the last three would have probably been Brown, Alomar and Walker, but I could see someone putting a vote out there for a few others, including Jack Morris or Lee Smith. And of course this was before people started pushing the absurdity of the voters not filling their ballot out 10 spots, where the average voter listed about 5-6 names on their ballot that year.


I just do not see the electorate going forward being nearly the same level of incompetence that we have had in the past.


Just because Smoltz had a crowded ballot also, doesn't negate the fact that Brown was hurt by a crowded ballot. And again, by the time Smoltz hit the ballot, there were dozens of articles being written about how crowded the ballot was and there was a substantial uptick in the average names listed per ballot. On Smoltzs ballot there were an average of 8.4 names per ballot, in 2011 it was 5.94. This alone is evidence to me that the voters are getting more progressive in their decision making.
Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
danielj
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - November* 2017 College Football thread
(182 - 1:53am, Nov 19)
Last: Lance Reddick! Lance him!

NewsblogHow an Astros player helped high-school kids have a cool World Series celebration
(1 - 12:20am, Nov 19)
Last: ajnrules

NewsblogOTP 13 November 2017: Politics, race now touching every sport
(1992 - 11:58pm, Nov 18)
Last: PreservedFish

Hall of MeritMock 2018 Modern Baseball Committee Hall of Fame Ballot
(76 - 11:33pm, Nov 18)
Last: robd4701

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(1410 - 11:06pm, Nov 18)
Last: don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all

NewsblogOT: Winter Soccer Thread
(197 - 10:58pm, Nov 18)
Last: SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY

NewsblogThe Eric Hosmer Dilemma | FanGraphs Baseball
(37 - 9:34pm, Nov 18)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

Hall of Merit2018 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(240 - 5:49pm, Nov 18)
Last: The Honorable Ardo

NewsblogStanton, Altuve capture first MVP Awards | MVP
(51 - 4:35pm, Nov 18)
Last: Lance Reddick! Lance him!

NewsblogJim Palmer on Mark Belanger and Omar Vizquel: The Hardball Times
(98 - 4:33pm, Nov 18)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogFangraphs: Let's Make One Thing Absolutely Clear About Aaron Judge
(22 - 3:42pm, Nov 18)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogThe story of Alex Anthopoulos: From tragedy to prodigy to Braves GM
(1 - 8:30am, Nov 18)
Last: bfan

NewsblogBraves will lose prospects, and possibly a lot more, for violating international market rules
(48 - 1:30am, Nov 18)
Last: Armored Trooper VOTTO

NewsblogJudge, Bellinger named BBWAA Rookies of Year | MLB.com
(86 - 9:25pm, Nov 17)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogDerek Jeter addresses Giancarlo Stanton rumors | MLB.com
(24 - 7:38pm, Nov 17)
Last: Khrushin it bro

Page rendered in 1.1625 seconds
49 querie(s) executed