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Thursday, March 14, 2013

Carlos Gomez Contract: Brewers Extend Center Fielder For Three Years, $24 Million

Can we undo this Johan thing?

[Carlos] Gomez was due to become a free agent following the season after his final arbitration year. He’s currently on a one-year, $4.3 million deal. He’s also coming off a career year where he hit .260/.305/.463 with career highs for home runs (19) and stolen bases (37). Even with last year’s improvements he’s still only a career .247/.294/.379 hitter.

It’s also worth noting, though, that Gomez is still only 27 years old and won’t turn 28 until December…. Two tweets have provided us more details on the extension.

First one is from Ken Rosenthal:

#Brewers announce Carlos Gomez extension as three years, covering 2014 to ‘16.
  — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 13, 2013

Adam McCalvy also has the details on the financial side:

#Brewers announce 3-year extension for Gomez. Source says he gets $7mm in ‘14, $8mm in ‘15, $9mm in ‘16. Story at the site.
  — Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) March 13, 2013

If you add in the $4.3 million that Gomez is making this year, he will be due $28.3 million through 2016.

The District Attorney Posted: March 14, 2013 at 05:26 PM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, carlos gomez

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Dan Posted: March 14, 2013 at 08:23 PM (#4388587)
That seems like a pretty solid deal in comparison to the deals FA CFers were getting this offseason. It could turn out to be a steal if he shows that last year's jump in power is for real.
   2. RJ in TO Posted: March 14, 2013 at 08:39 PM (#4388592)
I still think of him as "Busted Prospect Carlos Gomez", so this deal seems crazy to me.

I'm sure it technically works out to be a reasonable contract.
   3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 08:39 PM (#4388593)
the power is real, it's the constant contact that's needed

if you see gomez in person you are struck at how d8mn strong he looks. and he is that strong.

gomez is the rare guy who can contribute if his obp hangs around .300 when you toss in the defense, baserunning and pop
   4. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 08:42 PM (#4388594)
one positive about running ron the brewers manager is that he tossed aside morgan pretty quickly and then gave gomez as many at bats as possible. and gomez responded like someone coming out of a deprivation chamber. he clung to that as tight as possible.

gomez has battled some injuries and perceptions for a few years. with a manager who believes in him and his physical skills it would not surprise me if gomez blew up (in a good way) this season.

he's a player that just needed some love
   5. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 14, 2013 at 08:49 PM (#4388598)
he's a player that just needed some love

I never thought he was such a bad little tree.
   6. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 08:55 PM (#4388602)
i am not reciting from luke
   7. bookbook Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:02 PM (#4388604)
#4, the league average OBP was only .319 in 2012. It can't be so rare to beat replacement level, or even average, hanging around .300.
   8. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:13 PM (#4388612)
Wow. I'm with #2 here. I had no idea he was even starting anymore.

Kudos to him.
   9. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:14 PM (#4388613)
7

when i use the word contribute i am not referring to average play.

   10. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:16 PM (#4388614)
gomez has been a plus war player the last two seasons. kind of surprised folks here are surprised
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:25 PM (#4388620)
Probably a fair extension, but not my kind of player (no walks, lots of K's, OK power).
   12. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:35 PM (#4388627)
gomez is the rare guy who can contribute if his obp hangs around .300 when you toss in the defense, baserunning and pop


A proud Brewers tradition (Gorman Thomas, Jose Hernandez)
   13. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:36 PM (#4388630)
snapper

if you saw him all the time his electricity would get you. he's a d8mn fool on the bases at times but he makes it work more often than not. his enthusiasm is off the charts. he breaks the wrong way on fly balls and then runs like a cheetah with its tail on fire to make up for the mistake

did you ever see that movie 'over the hedge'? gomez is that squirrel character. pure kinetic entertainment
   14. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:37 PM (#4388631)

I still think of him as "Busted Prospect Carlos Gomez", so this deal seems crazy to me.

Same here.
   15. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:38 PM (#4388632)
crispix

don't forget jose valentin
   16. bobm Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:41 PM (#4388634)
Gomez has emerged as a power threat by making huge strides against curveballs and sliders. Once a liability when pitchers tossed him a breaking ball, Gomez now makes them pay.

Back in 2010, Gomez was a banjo hitter versus curves and sliders. He often chopped breaking pitches into the turf (his 57% ground ball rate on curves and sliders was way above the 45% MLB average), and he had all of two extra-base knocks the entire year [...] Gomez slugged .200 against breaking balls, about 150 points below the MLB average and the sixth-worst mark among hitters seeing at least 300 curves and sliders that season.

In 2011, Gomez made some strides. He put the ball in the air more often (47% ground ball rate vs. breaking pitches) and made louder contact, particularly on the edges of the strike zone [...] Gomez slugged .385 vs. curves and sliders.

Last year, he progressed from a so-so breaking ball hitter to a slugger. Gomez's ground ball rate dropped another tick (46%) and he pulverized curves and sliders thrown down and inside [...] With a .461 slugging percentage against curves and sliders, Gomez ranked third behind Josh Hamilton (.563) and Mike Trout (.521) among center fielders, and his nine homers trailed just Hamilton (18) and Adam Jones (10).


http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2013/3/14/carlos-gomez-finds-power-stroke-cashes-in.html
   17. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:44 PM (#4388637)
Huh. Gomez actually developed some power. You could knock me over with a feather.
   18. RJ in TO Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:45 PM (#4388638)
gomez has been a plus war player the last two seasons. kind of surprised folks here are surprised

I very rarely get to see the Brewers, or anything from the NL other than interleague. I still had Gomez in mind as the fourth outfielder/defensive specialist, rather than the starting CF with some pop.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 14, 2013 at 09:55 PM (#4388643)
snapper

if you saw him all the time his electricity would get you. he's a d8mn fool on the bases at times but he makes it work more often than not. his enthusiasm is off the charts. he breaks the wrong way on fly balls and then runs like a cheetah with its tail on fire to make up for the mistake

did you ever see that movie 'over the hedge'? gomez is that squirrel character. pure kinetic entertainment


Yeah, not the prototypical guy I like. I like take and rake sluggers, and smart speedy guys who walk and don't K much.

My prototypical non-power guy is Willie Randolph, or Brett Gardner.
   20. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 10:00 PM (#4388645)
snapper

with no intent of insult or to be funny if you watch carlos gomez and don't like watching him play you don't like baseball

he's a trip
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 14, 2013 at 10:01 PM (#4388646)
snapper

with no intent of insult or to be funny if you watch carlos gomez and don't like watching him play you don't like baseball

he's a trip


None taken. I'm unlikely to see him much, unless Milwaukee comes back to the AL.
   22. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 14, 2013 at 10:09 PM (#4388651)
snapper

are you writing from 1977?

i thought all you bbtfers here had access to pirated links to watch video feed of different teams
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 14, 2013 at 10:13 PM (#4388663)
snapper

are you writing from 1977?

i thought all you bbtfers here had access to pirated links to watch video feed of different teams


Nah, I'm old school. I watch maybe 50-80 Yankees games and that's about it. The wife doesn't care for baseball, so if there's something else decent on, I'll just read about it in the paper the next day.
   24. Tripon Posted: March 14, 2013 at 10:20 PM (#4388678)
MLB.tv really needs to make a Wii U app, so I can do tablet watching while I play videogames.
   25. Lassus Posted: March 14, 2013 at 10:37 PM (#4388710)
I'm not shocked at all to hear people here have no idea that someone who came from the Mets is actually valuable.
   26. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: March 14, 2013 at 11:13 PM (#4388729)
Carlos Gomez was always really fun to watch, so I'm glad he's turned out as well as he has. Hopefully the power increase sticks, given his defense the combination makes him into a very solid centerfielder.
   27. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 14, 2013 at 11:31 PM (#4388738)
Hey, if Harvey's opinion of Gomez is even close to correct, it's a great signing for the Brewers. It's exactly the sort of contract that a mid/low payroll team should be signing. Every contract is a risk, but this one in both years and money, when considering his age and improvement is precisely where the Brewers want to be.

I like take and rake sluggers, and smart speedy guys who walk and don't K much.


That's all well and good, but these guys tend to cost more then your Gomez type of players. Not every team has a $100 mil budget. It's a good calculated risk.
   28. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 15, 2013 at 12:31 AM (#4388752)
I'll probably buy a #27 Brewers jersey now. The guy is so fun to watch.
   29. Dan Posted: March 15, 2013 at 01:29 AM (#4388762)
Since this is a Brewers thread: are the Brewers seriously going to play Alex Gonzalez at first base??? You'd think they could at least scare up some kind of AAA/AAAA slugger to give 4-8 weeks of ABs to at first rather than playing a guy whose bat hasn't even played at SS lately.
   30. Walt Davis Posted: March 15, 2013 at 01:34 AM (#4388765)
gomez has been a plus war player the last two seasons. kind of surprised folks here are surprised

Well, y'know, one minute you're just sitting there minding your own business and the next minute Carlos Gomez turns into a kinda decent hitter.

   31. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 15, 2013 at 08:23 AM (#4388800)
to be clear carlos could easily see his offense swallowed up in strikeouts. he could start poorly, get even more anxious, and even rr would finally see a need to give schafer a shot in centerfield if gomez is flailing.

but right now the wind is at his back. his manager believes in him, the club just sent him a big 'we love you' message, the fans adore him, he's in his prime, and the home ballpark favors his approach.

i am no svengali but if there were ever a roadmap for a guy crushing a season 2013 looks to be all teed up for carlos gomez.
   32. Rants Mulliniks Posted: March 15, 2013 at 08:33 AM (#4388807)
with no intent of insult or to be funny if you watch carlos gomez and don't like watching him play you don't like baseball

he's a trip


I agree, I watched a couple of Brewers games last year and he was one of those players that look way better on the field than what is shown by their numbers. Not that his numbers are terrible, but to watch him play you'd think he was a superstar. I get the same feeling from Denard Span, although Span has no power.

And of all the people on BBTF who would suggest that a player just needed some love to succeed, I wouldn't have guessed it would be Harvey! You old softie!
   33. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 15, 2013 at 08:47 AM (#4388813)
cold

you live long enough to start to get a vague idea of what different people need to succeed. carlos just needed someone to give a d8mn about him as a person and a player.

running ron has taken gomez as a project. if things pan out this may make ron's bones as a player development maestro.
   34. vivaelpujols Posted: March 15, 2013 at 09:54 AM (#4388838)
Wow I always thought Carlos Gomez sucked, but he's been a pretty decent player over his career. 10.2 fWAR and 7.3 bWAR over 2130 career PA. That's about 2.5 WAR per 600 PA. And of course the past two years he's been much better than that. This is probably a solid deal.
   35. The District Attorney Posted: March 15, 2013 at 11:24 AM (#4388895)
i am no svengali but if there were ever a roadmap for a guy crushing a season 2013 looks to be all teed up for carlos gomez.
Being a Svengali would mean you could hypnotize opposing pitchers into giving up homeruns to him. Or something.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 15, 2013 at 11:41 AM (#4388905)
That's all well and good, but these guys tend to cost more then your Gomez type of players. Not every team has a $100 mil budget. It's a good calculated risk.

I said it's probably a fair contract. I just don't like that type of player. I find them aesthetically unpleasing. If you're fast and don't walk, there's no reason to be striking out a lot. I'm also not a big fan of the SB.

And, not to nit pick, but every team probably can afford a $100M payroll if they want to.
   37. Esoteric Posted: March 15, 2013 at 11:41 AM (#4388906)
Harvey is owning this thread. I love it.

As for Gomez, I got a chance to see him a bit last year when the Nats would play the Brewers, and even though we were running some nobody named "Bryce Harper" out there in CF at the time I felt real envy (an envy which, interestingly enough given Rants' point in #32, finally feels quelled now that we have Denard Span). Like everyone else here, I primarily remembered Carlos Gomez as "yet another failed Mets prospect LOLOLOL," then I saw him gazelling around centerfield, taking authoritative cuts at the plate, and generally creating real excitement out there. It's nice to see how a player can bloom given enough time and proper belief in his abilities -- a Nationals analogue might be Ian Desmond -- so credit to Ron Roenicke for identifying the talent and putting him a position to succeed.
   38. Lassus Posted: March 15, 2013 at 11:44 AM (#4388909)
Like everyone else here, I primarily remembered Carlos Gomez as "yet another failed Mets prospect LOLOLOL,"

NOT EVERYONE
   39. Esoteric Posted: March 15, 2013 at 11:47 AM (#4388911)
COUGH
Heh. Yes, I saw that you made a similar point. And it's a good one! What can I say -- the Lastings Milledge Experience has taught me never to trust in any supposed 'talent' coming out of the Mets system.
   40. sinicalypse Posted: March 15, 2013 at 11:55 AM (#4388918)
Carlos could always glide in CF and steal plenty of bases; it was always about stealing first for Carlos. I have no idea where his power came from, but it's kind of amusing to see him so highly ranked in Yahoo's default fantasy baseball o-rankings. While he was solid down the stretch, I'll be surprised if he's on the virge of 20/40 again (as I believe he was 19/37 last year).

Like many have stated, although a bit more newschool, I'll always think of him as that Minnesota Twin who had a problem stealing first. It's also !! that I think the guy is 6'4" or something, so maybe the power isn't as much of a total surprise as one would assume given his pre-established legend.
   41. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 15, 2013 at 11:57 AM (#4388920)
None taken. I'm unlikely to see him much, unless Milwaukee comes back to the AL.


Which they do this year with the constant interleague play. It was a strange feeling to log onto the Braves site to buy tickets, and see April series against the Tigers and Royals.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 15, 2013 at 12:05 PM (#4388925)
Which they do this year with the constant interleague play. It was a strange feeling to log onto the Braves site to buy tickets, and see April series against the Tigers and Royals.

Looks like the Yankees get the NL West this year. And only 4 games vs. the Mets, thank God.
   43. philphan Posted: March 15, 2013 at 12:31 PM (#4388941)
Gomez was often fun to watch when he came up with the Mets, but he was clearly promoted too young.

Question for Harveys--does Gomez still smell his bat? I remember he did that when he came up with the Mets, and someone reported that he felt he needed some sort of "trademarK' as a major leaguer and so he would smell his bat before he stepped into the box.
   44. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: March 15, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4388983)
snapper

with no intent of insult or to be funny if you watch carlos gomez and don't like watching him play you don't like baseball

he's a trip

Literally!
   45. MM1f Posted: March 15, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4388987)
So, Carlos Gomez basically turned into what Drew Stubbs was supposed to turn into.
   46. MM1f Posted: March 15, 2013 at 02:19 PM (#4388989)
So, Carlos Gomez basically turned into what Drew Stubbs was supposed to turn into.
   47. Walt Davis Posted: March 15, 2013 at 05:31 PM (#4389081)
Wow I always thought Carlos Gomez sucked, but he's been a pretty decent player over his career. 10.2 fWAR and 7.3 bWAR over 2130 career PA. That's about 2.5 WAR per 600 PA.

Lots of these guys are decent according to WAR. From 23-27, Corey Patterson had positive WAA despite a dreadful age 25 season. Drew Stubbs' career is league average. Austin Jackson was way above-average in 2011 and would have been average even if you took away all his Rfield. Cameron Maybin has been well above-average for his career. By WAR, from 2010-12, even Bonifacio has been above-average.

By bWAR, 2010-12, 1000+ PA, 28 or younger, at least 2 WAR per 650 PA ... there are 11 average or better young CF out there. Three of them are below-average as batters with Gomez the worst of the bunch over those 3 years. (Stubbs misses this list but I think would make it if I pushed it back to 2009.) The secret star here is Maybin who despite having the 2nd worst Rbat has been nearly a 4 WAR per 650 PA player. With SD suppressing his raw numbers, he really looks like a much worse player than he is.

Gomez is roughly Maybin with more power but fewer walks or a poor man's Chris Young. No particular reason he can't be Tony Armas during this contract (7.3 WAR in 2300 PA from 27-30 and that's with Armas's defense falling apart starting at 29).



All of these guys are better hitters than Patterson was.

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