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1. salvomania Posted: November 10, 2005 at 09:01 PM (#1726757)Ack, what to do...I love Carp, but I don't think he should've won. Something tells me I'm going to feel the same way when Albert wins the MVP next week, but I'll be a little less ambivalent about that one.
But here's a question: not that Willis deserved it either, but how many times has a guy lost the Cy Young to a pitcher with fewer wins and a higher ERA? It can't be that common. Two that come to mind are Mark Mulder in 2001 and Dwight Gooden in 1984, but both Clemens and Sutcliffe had insane winning percentages.
I want Albert to win it, but would be okay with Lee winning it.
As for Cy Young, I'm happy for Carpenter. First time since 1970 a Cardinal has won the Cy.
the difference between Carpenter and Clemens (what Carpenter "added"):
the difference between Willis and Clemens:
Yes, thanks for the enormous value of all those extra innings, guys. That's a tough call, indeed.
Actually, this puts him one short now, given that 2005 made up for 1990.
I'm the other way around. I'll be pissed, though, when Jones wins.
He probably has some completely new, proprietary system for evaluating pitchers.
And a tumor.
That said, I'll be pretty pissed if both Lee and Pujols lose the MVP to Andruw.
coughBoswellcough
I wouldn't have thought a Cub reliever could walk negative-nine batters.
1. Colon over Santana or Rivera (2005)
2. Clemens over Randy Johnson (2004)
3. Zito over Pedro (2002)
4. Clemens over just about everyone in 2001 (Mulder, Hudson, Moyer, Garcia, Mussina for cryin out loud)
5. Bob Welch over Clemens, Eckersley, Stewart, Thigpen in 1990 (though 27 Wins was pretty overwhelming for traditional voters)
6. Hoyt over Dotson and Quisenberry (and maybe Morris)
in 1983
7. Pete Vukovich over hmmm.... no one ran away with it this year...Maybe it would have been a good year for Quis to win one...Maybe Steib...maybe Bill Caudill.... nah...no M's pitcher was going to win the CY in 1983 without a 1972 Carlton performance.
8. Steve Stone over Mike NOrris in 1980
In short, they picked the wrong guy this season in both leagues....But they'lve done worse....Besides, if the writers had any balls, they would have given the award to Nolan Ryan in 1987 (8-16 2.76 E.R.A. 270/212 SO/IP, 1.14 E.R.A.)..... Is 1987 the only season where the BBWA got 3/4 of the "non-ROY" awards wrong?
What about 2001 and 2004?
Don't slam them on RBIs if you're going to cite to batting average as a reason not to vote for him.
How about: lowest OPS+ since 2002, lowest OPS+ in NL since 1987.
Well, you know how Dusty hates walks.
Do you mean 2004? He didn't win in either 2005 or 1990.
I'm curious what 2001 made up for, though.
Excellent point. He could do the IP, HR, and ERA, though.
Without checking, almost certainly not.
Me too.
Most people are saying Jones will win. I think there's been enough written though about how he doesn't deserve it that there'll be enough backlash from a handful of writers (voting Jones 6th or 7th) that Jones may get the most 1st place votes, but will not win the MVP.
1987's one of the few years I would have voted for a reliever: against a weak crop of starters, the now-forgotten Tim Burke had a 355 ERA+ in 91 relief innings.
Mussina's awful close to him in 1992 and 1994, and Stewart has those 40 extra innings in 1990. Who do you think deserved it in 1987?
Jimmy Key...although Clemens did have twenty more innings. I don't think any of those years are slam dunks, but that's whom I would have voted for.
You got a diamond, you got nine men
You got a hat, and a bat and that's not all
You got the bleachers, you got 'em from spring 'til fall
You got a dog and a drink and an umpire's call.
What do you want? Let's play ball
Is that a flyball?, or is it a seagull?
Coming in, from the lake, just to catch the game
It's the last inning, our guy's are winning
Dave's putting down a smoker, a strike, and you've got no doubt
What do you want? Let's play ball
OK! Blue Jays! Let's...play...ball.
It's a beautiful evening, fans, at the ballpark, when the game starts
Warm summer breezes, sun's going down, and it's all dark at the ball park
That's OK, it's a night game
OK! Blue Jays! Let's...play...ball.
OK! Blue Jays! Let's...play...ball.
Bring on the White Sox, Bring on the BoSox
Bring on the Brewers, the Rangers and the Yankees too
We'll beat the Indians, and we'll beat the Tigers
We'll beat the A's so bad, gonna make Billy blue
What do you want? Let's play ball
OK! Blue Jays! Let's...play...ball.
OK! Blue Jays! Let's...play...ball.
Just perusing BB-Ref (stead' of workin'), an argument could be made they may have gotten 3 wrong (SABR-matically speaking) in 1998, though Tom Glavine was arguably a decent choice (Brown , Hoffman and Maddux would have made good pics) and if Sosa didn't win, then Mcgwire would have...Sosa was not a horrible choice...hmm....so I would say 1998 they got at least 1.5/4 right
1989: A strong argument could be made that Mitchell/Yount/Davis were not the best pics
We Love you White Sox....Oh Yes We Do
We Love You White Sox...and we'll be True
And if you are a Cubs Fan.....F*%K You!!
Oh White Sox We Love You!
Very Classy
What would be lovely is if Carpenter and Willis go into a spell of years where they battle it out, like Koufax and Marichal. I remember how one major publication referred to Marichal as Avis (we try harder); even after Koufax retired, there he goes and gets injured in '67, and then Gibson goes 1.12 in '68. Whatever; not comparing these guys to that, but it IS fun when the same guys battle for the writers favor year after year.
This is a good point. In that vein, I've heard writers talk about "games that matter" and Carpenter's ERA rose about 0.5 points after the Cardinals had clinched the division. Before his last, what, three or four starts, he had better numbers than Dontrelle and was pretty darn close to Clemens. In mid-September, Carp had the highest SNVA (and like stats) in the NL.
As for Clemens--does it matter at this point? Yeah, he deserved; yeah, I voted for him on the IBA ballot. But his reputation is made, and whether his plaque says 7 Cys or 8 is sort of irrelevant.
But he definitely deserved the AL Cy in '87, and the MVP in '86 (and '97, too).
IS PLAYED AT SKYDOME ALL THE TIME!!!!
EVERY SO OFTEN, I GET THE MR. SUB SONG IN MY HEAD, TOO....
THERE'S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOOD GOING DOWN AT MR. SUB!!!!
PIZZA PIZZA!!!!
I include all the StL guys to show how much they seem to have benefited from their defense.
They still the whole thing in the 7th inning stretch, not just the chorus.
Mind you, that may show that Clemens was better, I just don't think tha work on #9 gets us any closer to stating that...
The Cy Young isn't a comparison of who could be expected to be better next year for your fantasy league. This is who performed better this year.
I know it's overstated about how many innings pitched, but when clemens pitched, his team knew he had to have at least one reliever, which means that clemens was guaranteed to tax the bullpen somewhat every single game, that figures into the game before and the game after. Carpenter, Willis and Pettitte didn't have that problem.
on top of that, since clemens knew he wasn't required to complete games he was able to not pace himself(assuming that pitchers actually do that)
I wouldn't have had a problem with clemens winning it, but with last year and only 13 wins this year, it was silly to think he would actually win it. I'm more surprised that Willis lost to Carpenter. I'm glad to see that Pettite got votes(and that pedro didn't)
The Angels waited since 1964. It isn't like both teams
have had cr@p pitchers in the meantime.
I think it means that Clemens relied on his defense for his great numbers more than Carpenter. It's kind of like comparing RBI totals for hitters -- what's team dependant and what's the result of the individual player's goodness.
Willis' argument for the Cy is strongly based on his hitting; Willis' hitting is worth almost 2 wins compared to Carpenter's, an about enormous difference. (The difference between Willis and Clemens is two-thirds of a win)
have had cr@p pitchers in the meantime.
For the Cards, pitchers that have finished in the top 5 since 1970:
'71 -- Gibson came in 5th.
'74 -- Hrabosky came in 5th.
'75 -- Hrabosky came in 3rd.
'81 -- Sutter came in 5th.
'82 -- Sutter came in 3rd.
'84 -- Sutter came in 3rd.
'84 -- Andujar came in 4th.
'85 -- Tudor came in 2nd.
'85 -- Andujar came in 4th.
'89 -- Magrane came in 4th.
'91 -- Smith came in 2nd.
'92 -- Tewksbury came in 3rd.
'92 -- Smith came in 4th.
'96 -- An. Benes came in 3rd.
'00 -- Kile (RIP) came in 4th.
'01 -- Morris came in 3rd.
'05 -- Carpenter came in 1st.
I don't know if this is a lot or a little. For Cardinal fans, it's probably somewhat interesting (it was to me). For the rest of you, feel free to move along.
I insist you tell us how you figure Pettitte didn't have that problem.
There I like that better.
The line presented in my post #9 is as relevant as any numbers from the season. If you care to throw their entire seasons' lines out the window, what will you use to compare them? I simply listed the difference in their season lines.
People are still talking about the Astros' supposed need to have a reliever when Clemens pitched. What that line shows is the aggregate difference between the two pitchers' total performances. That is the reliever performance the Astros "need". So one point is to show that that argument makes an assumption about some vague level of contribution that needn't be made, since we can very easily show all the "extra" work one pitcher did.
If you'd like to go through all the game logs and decide who contributed more in each game, go ahead (and have fun demonstrating to everybody's satisfaction that you're being fair about accounting for variable teammates' performances to determine what counts as "clutch" or "meaningless"). Unless this demonstrates Clemens's inferiority--and we have no reason a priori to expect it would--the evidence we have is their overall performances.
The argument about the difference between FIP and ERA is valid. I acknowledged this in mentioning how Carpenter's extra runs allowed seemed awfully high relative to his extra baserunners allowed. Before concluding for Clemens, I felt it was important to make the strongest possible case in Carpenter's favor. Does the difference in hit type (Clemens having allowed many fewer extra-base hits) insufficiently account for this discrepancy, though? We often suppose defense can turn balls in play into outs; did Clemens benefit disproportionately from a defense that turned XBH into singles? Knowing his pitching style (and the HR rate, which the D couldn't affect) makes this doubtful, too.
because his team wouldn't keep him on as short of a leash. If necessary I don't think the astros would have had any problems pitching pettitte an inning past what they think he is still effective. Maybe I'm reading their manager wrong and he always follows pitch counts, or maybe pettite was another glass doll. if so, then my mistake.
and once again, I'm giving pettite extra props for his end of the season performance. Since it was very important for his team that they continue winning and he did that, something that clemens (5.40, 4starts, and 20 ip in september didn't do)
It's not that Carpenter had more innings, complete games, shutouts, and strikeouts, it's that he was 1st or 2nd in the league in all of them. In general, Carpenter dominated the leaderboards in the NL.
The AL choice of Colon, OTOH, was brutally bad.
Does anyone know if some of the voters for the AL or NL are the same? I think there are 2 voters for every city which would mean that there could be duplicate voters for Bay Area, LA, Chicago and New York. The difference between the two choices is baffling -- maybe the AL voters throw out the numbers because they think the AL is more about offense and pitching doesn't matter as much?
voters get to vote for three people, it was pretty obvious that the only 'real' candidates was carpenter, willis and clemens. I'm kinda shocked that Pettitte didn't get a couple more votes, since whoever was voting for clemens in first, would have been thinking of era as the most important thing, and pettitte was second in ERA.
I pointed this out earlier and the more I think about the more valid it is. One of hte reasons the Cards could phone it in the last two weeks was because of Carpenter's dominance. His last four starts were not good and, as I pointed out, raised his ERA by at least half a run. Up until that point, he was the best in the NL. I know the award is for the season, and for the Cardinals' meaningful season, Carp was the best.
My guess is that when you are the league's only 20-game winner, you pretty much have the award in the bag.
I had Willis 6th on my IBA ballot. Again, that was cast without regard to pitchers' contributions on offense and while fielding. I thought Clemens was clearly #1 and Carpenter was a pretty strong #2. After that, I had Pedro - Pettitte - Oswalt - Willis - Peavy. Pedro had a much lower hit rate than Willis, a lower walk rate, a much higher SO rate, a much lower OBPa, and a lower SLGa. Both played in pitchers' parks. Willis slight IP edge (19) might outweight Pedro's quality edge, but it's absolutely not clear that it does.
Pettitte vs. Willis: Pettitte had a lower hit rate, lower walk rate, higher SO rate, lower OBPa, and almost the same (still a tiny bit lower) SLGa, while pitching in a home park less favorable to pitchers. Against this Willis had a whopping 14 extra IP.
Oswalt had a higher hit rate, lower walk rate, higher SO rate, almost equal OBPa, and higher SLGa, again in a park less favorable to pitchers, while pitching a few more innings than Willis.
I personally had Pettitte off my radar most of the year, but at season's end I had to consider the whole year. Every game counted equally, and I don't care to pick one of the "pulled away early and so was more valuable" or "turned in on down the stretch and so was more valuable" story lines.
No, it's saying that he benefited greatly from his defense. If you want to say that Clemens has some skill in preventing hits on BIP, there's not much evidence that he has a lot of it.
I can't believe people are still talking about the CG baloney. The value of the CG is reflected in the IP. As illustrated, the IP difference was made up for by the difference in ERA.
If you want to give credit to Carpenter for giving the BP a 'full day off' then I think you need to show some evidence that giving them that kind of rest is superior to the normal, everyday rest that a bullpen gets when their starter routinely goes deep into games.
I don't have a problem with this Cy, by the way. It was very close, and Carpenter had a slight edge (I think).
His ERA *dominance* may have been mostly a fluke, but his DIPS ERA was still second best in the league and better than any of the guys who finished ahead of him in the voting. And if you want to only look at stats before Carpenter started dialing it in, well, Clemens' ERA was historically good at that point before he had some late-season troubles.
Not to mention the guy who *actually* won it in 1994, Cone, who was only slightly behind Roger in ERA/ERA+ and was slightly ahead in IP. I think the writers made a fine selection in 1994.
2001, when he wasn't the best pitcher on his staff.
But to steal a BL term, I don't see how it is at all probative. The innings of the 2 pitcher's weren't distributed that way. You can't just tack on a 30 inning reliver with a 9+ era onto Clemens and equal Carpenter. Carpenter pitched deeper into games, in more high leverage innings, and increased his team's winning chances through those higher leverage innings. Clemens may have been better than Carpenter through inning 6, but Carpenter bested him in the 7th on. It's these extra high leverage innings that can make Carpenter's performance 'better' beyond what a global look at ERA would show.
I agree with the historically good, but my initial point (which I only raised as a possible legitimate justification for those who think Carpenter was an abominable choice) was that Carpenter's numbers, his ERA for example, were significantly better before the Cardinals clinched the division and the games no longer mattered. For the Astros, every game mattered, so Clemens' "struggles" came when the Astros needed him to be good.
I'm not saying it's a good argument -- the whole season counts as far as I'm concerned -- but it's a justifiable position.
n't that those late season games would have mattered ^Similarly, would anybody claim that a batter who hit 50 2B and 50 HR over a full healthy season of 700 PA provided more value than one who hit 44 2B and 44 HR in 400 PA, ceteris paribus? Vague assertions that providing all that extra time is more valuable ignore the ease with which a team could replace the missing 16 XBH in a half-season of freely available filler. Being the guy who "actually gets those hits" is not valuable when you actually use up an extra couple hundred PA in doing so.
The claim that one pitcher's contributions occurred at more valuable times is no more plausible here than it would be about two pitchers with exactly the same aggregate lines. Either way, I'm strongly disinclined to believe you, and you have quite a case to make.
Roy Oswalt cries in the corner about his single first place vote last year.
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