He'll look great in a Red Sox uniform.

This seems to be one reason why the Yanks are trying to save money.

Is now the time to talk about how poorly 2B age?

Get an olde English D on that boy, pronto!

If he's not raised to the level of highest paid current NYY, then that'd be a terrible injustice.

I mean, this isn't socialism, he's the best player on the team.

He'll look great in a Red Sox uniform.

No more "Pedroia is better" talk then.

He'll look great in a Red Sox uniform.

Where? First base? Left Field? I think he'd do well at third, but replacing Middlebrooks doesn't seem like a high priority.

Translation: he's gone.

His baseball reference comp list is George Brett and early thirties flame-outs.

Much as it pains me to say it, isn't Cano just physically different from the secondbasemen who tend to fall apart quickly? Seems like Kent, Grich, and Carew aged pretty well.

Seems like Kent, Grich, and Carew aged pretty well.

Well except Carew was pretty much a 1B after the age of 29.

I think he'll age fine. He might have to be moved away from 2nd but he'll be able to hit until he's 40.

Whenever a GM says he's made a "significant offer", it means he's made an offer that will perceived as lowballing.

OTOH, has a Boras client ever gotten a first offer that wasn't perceived as a lowball?

I'm sure he won't age like typical second baseman, but how long should the Yankees go, and how long will they go?

I would start with offering 5/90, so Boras feels satisfied that he has done his job when it lands at 7/140.

It will be 6-7 years and, ohhhh, $22 per.

@10, Yeah, Carew moved but he remained able to hit. That's all I was getting at.

Am I the only one who see him looking for and possibly getting $200M+? Seems like the last two are awfully low compared to other recent contracts. Note that the Dodgers do not currently have a billion dollar 2b.

To add: He's going to be 31, he's #2 in fWar over the past 3 years, a good defender, and by traditional stats, he's a 30/100 type of guy. Why wouldn't that get him at least 8/180 (Tex money) instead of 7/140 (Crawford/Werth money)?

I don't know, but if I'm Cashman I'm not giving $200 million to anyone when I still owe the husk of A-Rod almost $140 million.

I think he'll age fine. He might have to be moved away from 2nd but he'll be able to hit until he's 40.

I'd bet the under on that for any player under 35.

Am I the only one who see him looking for and possibly getting $200M+? Seems like the last two are awfully low compared to other recent contracts. Note that the Dodgers do not currently have a billion dollar 2b.

I think around 200m could well be where it ends up. I don't think 7/140 gets Boras to not test FA. And 5/90 gets a chuckle and a call me when you are serious.

If Yankees fans need cheering up over this, remember that a large deal for Cano will make it almost impossible for the Red Sox to get a reasonable deal with Pedroia, who actually has the small stature of the early-burnout 2nd basemen.

Much as it pains me to say it, isn't Cano just physically different from the secondbasemen who tend to fall apart quickly? Seems like Kent, Grich, and Carew aged pretty well.

Lou Whittaker and Joe Morgan both played 2B and were productive right up til their retirements. We had a thread here a couple of weeks ago that delved more deeply into 2B aging and for every star that fell off the cliff at 33 or 34, you could find one that was reasonably productive through age 40.

If they let Robbie go, what FA bats are available after this year to replace him?

Or do they gotta sign him?

Have the Yankees ever let a star in his prime leave during the FA years? I'm tired and there may be an obvious one I'm missing, but I can't remember it happening.

Have the Yankees ever let a star in his prime leave during the FA years? I'm tired and there may be an obvious one I'm missing, but I can't remember it happening.

They sure tried with Bernie Williams, but he wouldn't let them. There's a couple of arguable ones--they traded Rickey! during his prime, for example--but since the start of their most recent run, I'm pretty sure the answer is no.

6/$150 added on if done now.

7/$180 if done next offseason and he has a good year in 2013.

Have the Yankees ever let a star in his prime leave during the FA years? They sure tried with Bernie Williams, but he wouldn't let them. There's a couple of arguable ones--they traded Rickey! during his prime, for example--but since the start of their most recent run, I'm pretty sure the answer is no.

Andy Pettitte pitched his age 32-34 seasons with the Astros (and ended up having arguably the best season of his career down there).

Have the Yankees ever let a star in his prime leave during the FA years? I'm tired and there may be an obvious one I'm missing, but I can't remember it happening.

Is Nick Swisher a star?

I think $200M is the magic number for Boras/Cano and I'm guessing he ends up getting 8/$200M from someone.

They let Tino Martinez go, but he was past prime by that time.

Andy Pettitte pitched his age 32-34 seasons with the Astros (and ended up having arguably the best season of his career down there).

Roger Clemens was a bigger star, and had bigger success, after leaving NY. In retrospect it's hard to say he wasn't in his prime at the time, even though he wasn't in the typical "prime" age range.

I'd like to see a headline touting a team making an insignificant offer to a player.

"Brian Cashman has assured Cano that if he plays baseball for the Yankees, the team will pay him. Something."

Lou Whittaker and Joe Morgan both played 2B and were productive right up til their retirements. We had a thread here a couple of weeks ago that delved more deeply into 2B aging and for every star that fell off the cliff at 33 or 34, you could find one that was reasonably productive through age 40.

How did this compare to 1B, SS, etc?

think $200M is the magic number for Boras/Cano and I'm guessing he ends up getting 8/$200M from someone.

Isn't everyone getting a big pile of new TV money for next year? It may not affect what the Yankees are willing to offer, but I have to expect Boras is going to wait to see how that affects any offers.

Am I the only one who see him looking for and possibly getting $200M+?

$200 million for a 30 year old 2B?

No crazier sounding that $250M for a 32-year-old 1B coming off his worst year. Or a $125M for 32-year-old LF who's got some serious health concerns. Or $214M for a good, not great, not athletic 1B. Or $200M for a 1B who's several years from reach FA, or or or.

Teams are rolling in cash and very few elite players make it to FA anymore. When they do, they seem likely to get paid.

How did this compare to 1B, SS, etc?

The conversation didn't delve too deeply into other positions, but the conclusion was that generally speaking, EVERYBODY starts to lose it after age 34. The overall skill/value of the player and how many years you're signing him past his age 34 season are probably more important than what position he plays, at least in the sense of figuring out whether the $/WAR calculation works.

One problem with secondbasemen, in general, is that they have nowhere to move to. Many don't have the arm for CF/RF/SS/3B and are too short to play 1B. That leaves LF or DH, and how 2B have a bat that plays there? Of course, this isn't likely a problem for Cano, who has a good arm and is rather tall for a 2B.

I would think that 3B is a perfect fit for Cano, 33+...too bad the Yankees have such a talented, healthy player there already.

I picture him going to 1b, but that's probably because he reminds me of Carew a little.

Cameron Chimes In

In a nutshell: great 2B age just fine, Cano is one, and he should put up about 30 WAR during the next 9 years, which would be worth $210M.

Cameron Chimes In

In a nutshell: great 2B age just fine, Cano is one, and he should put up about 30 WAR during the next 9 years, which would be worth $210M.

I suddenly feel a lot less confident about Cano.

I'd be surprised if Cano hit .280/.320/.400 over the rest of his career.

To add: He's going to be 31, he's #2 in fWar over the past 3 years, a good defender, and by traditional stats, he's a 30/100 type of guy. Why wouldn't that get him at least 8/180 (Tex money) instead of 7/140 (Crawford/Werth money)?

Teams are very reluctant to sign anybody past age 36. Cano, like David Wright with the Mets, can probably push the Yanks to 37. Only the "greats" like Pujols, ARod and Votto can push teams past that. Miggy's next contract will probably go past that.

Why did Fielder get 9/$210 -- it started with his age 28 season and ends at 36. Why did Hamilton get 5/$125 -- it starts at his age 32 season and ends at age 36. Why did Tex get 8/$180 -- it started at his age 29 season and ends at age 36.

Why $22? I went for $22 because top 2B have never been paid commensurate with their worth. That he might get $23 to top Tex is clearly possible. But I had forgotten about Hamilton and there's not much reason to think he's not wroth Hamilton money so 6-7 at $25-26 is definitely a possibility.

But there is no team in baseball that will give him anything close to the Pujols or Votto contracts nor will he get Prince's contract. Nobody is signing Cano through his age 39-40 season.

In a nutshell: great 2B age just fine, Cano is one, and he should put up about 30 WAR during the next 9 years, which would be worth $210M.

Cameron generates a very odd list ... a list of top 2B that doesn't include Sandberg, Alomar, Whitaker or Grich. If all you're going to really do is comp Cano as a hitter, why limit the comp group to 2B?

Morgan and Carew had funny careers. Morgan peaked as a hitter at ages 31-32; Carew peaked at 31. Carew put up about 30 WAR from age 31 on and 1/3 of that came in his age 31 season. Morgan put up 44 WAR with 20 of that coming at ages 31-32 (which was in line with 28-30 so no reason to expect Cano to match that).

Cano - Carew is a very good comparison and if you guarantee me Cano is going to have a season for the ages at 31, I'll buy that 30 WAR projection. Otherwise, something around 25 (over 9 years) is more reasonable.

Now, using Cameron's comps from 37-40:

Morgan: 11 bWAR
Carew: 3 (didn't play at 40)
Biggio: 5.5 (I dropped his age 41 season)
Utleyy: he's only 34 ... his age 37+ is looking close to 0
McAuliffe: DNP

As ... was it GuyM or SoSH? .... showed in that other recent thread, 2B are no different in this regard than other positions. But other reasonable comps from ages 37-39:

Molitor 8
Kent 6
Lopes 5
Brett 4
Whitaker 4
Franco 4
Kaline 3
Murray 3
Grace 2
Grich 2

and of course Sandberg 0, Alomar 0.

So, sure, Cano might put up 5-6 WAR in those last 3 years. Take that off Cameron's 30 WAR and that's 25 WAR or 6/$150-175 (when did WAR become $7 M per by the way?). Take that off my 25 WAR and it's 20 WAR 31-36. That's what my guesstimate on the contract is based on, with Cano probably able to push them to a 7th year because the Yanks are a bit desperate and, in a couple of years, he'll be the only True Yankee they'll have.

And as good a time as any to remind folks of this list, age at end of contract:

Fielder 36
Hamilton 36
Tex 36
Jeter I 36
AGon 36
Braun 36
Kemp 34
Mauer 35
Wright 37
Swisher 35
VMart 35 (I thought that was a 3-year contract)
Hunter 36 (with the Angels)
Konerko I 35
Kinsler 35
Beltre 36
Wells 35
Zimmerman 34
Uggla 35
Howard 36
M Young 36
Bay 35
Reyes 34
Phillips 36
Holliday 36
Molina 34
Beltran I 34
Furcal I 34
A Ramirez 36 (but signed at 34, maybe shouldn't count)
Crawford 35
Ethier 35
A Hill 34
Tulo 35
Helton I 36 or 37 (kinda hard to tell)

Exceptions:
Pujols, ARod, Votto, Werth thru 38 (boy was this dumb), Soriano 38 (another good idea)

How many of those guys put up 20+ fWAr and 20+ bWar in their last 3 years before signing their new deals? Cano is arguably the best position player in the game right now. Now, if he bombs out in 2013, then all bets are off. But if he keeps up what he's doing, I don't see the age-36 barrier as stopping him.

Also, I don't think there's much relevance in a lot of the guys on that list. How does it matter, for instance, that a 26-year-old Tulo was signed through 35? Any contract that would have carried him past age 36 would have been completely unprecedented in length. A more reasonable comps, to me, would be recent guys of a similar age. That's Pujols, ARod, maybe Wright? Those guys all blew past 36. There's also a crop of similar-age players who were far inferior players (because of performance, health, or other factors), such as Swisher, Hamilton, Beltre, and Werth, who got deals through age 36 (and beyond for one). I can't see why he wouldn't get deals that were better than those guys got.

The nice thing about these arguments is that at least we'll have an answer before we're all dead!

I have a different objection to Cameron's comps than Walt (though his is good too). All those guys on the list were very different kinds of hitters from Cano. They all had quite a bit more patience than he's had and only Utley really had similar power.

The nice thing about these arguments is that at least we'll have an answer before we're all dead!

Maybe.

I don't know, but if I'm Cashman I'm not giving $200 million to anyone when I still owe the husk of A-Rod almost $140 million.

That's a stupendous way to get fired as the GM of the Yankees. You made a bad contract decision (and how much of that was Cashman is debatable to this day), so you let good player after good player go by to "punish" yourself? Because all big deals are bad deals?

I think when we're old and gray, we'll all wonder aloud how the "Cano vs. Pedroia" arguments could have ever been waged by good-thinking people, like the Derek Jeter/Rey Ordonez arguments in 1995.

Pedroia's a year younger and is trailing Cano by 2.4 fWAR and 4.1 bWAR. But yeah, sounds just like Jeter/Ordonez.

Now I could see it ending up a lot like Jeter/Nomar.

Cano won’t be a +6 win player in his 30s

HE DECLARES IT THEREFORE IT IS TRUE.

It's not likely, but, come on. It's not impossible to put up a 6 win season after 30.

Whoops. Duplicate.

Sigh. I'll say something different then.

I do agree with the Pedroia/Nomar possibility. It seems like Petey might run into a wall/an Ortiz and shatter something.

At least Beltre's not on the team anymore, so there's no chance he'll trod on Pedroia going after a pop up.

And how are Ortiz and Pedroia going to end up colliding? Is someone going to scare Papi with a Frankenstein statue?

"I forgot I was behind him."

Andy Pettitte pitched his age 32-34 seasons with the Astros (and ended up having arguably the best season of his career down there)

And the two worst, by bbwar

Anyway, Pedroia could take a day off and pinch hit for whoever is behind him.

I do think that Ortiz has roughly the same statistical chance to collide with Pedroia on the baseball field as I do.

Thank you Blastin, that's all I was looking for. :)

In case people don't know what we're referring to...Listen, it's funny.