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Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Castillo, Chatwood among 2018 breakout arms

More good Statcast stuff. I’m all aboard the Statcast train.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 02, 2018 at 06:27 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: statcast

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   1. Andere Richtingen Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5600081)
I don't believe in jinxes, and I agree that the overall outlook with Chatwood is very positive. But all of this talk strikes me as the jinxiest jinx in jinx history.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5600089)
and I agree that the overall outlook with Chatwood is very positive.

Well, if you ignore the fact that he walked the ballpark, and gave up a ton of HRs.
   3. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5600096)
I don't believe in jinxes, and I agree that the overall outlook with Chatwood is very positive. But all of this talk strikes me as the jinxiest jinx in jinx history.

Right, but I also think there's a tendency for these types of articles to highlight moves "smart" teams make. Sort of a writing to the conclusion situation.

   4. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5600098)
Well, if you ignore the fact that he walked the ballpark, and gave up a ton of HRs.


So did Arrieta in BAL.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:32 PM (#5600100)
So did Arrieta in BAL.

Yes, and for every Arrieta, there are 100 guys who don't figure it out.

Edit: Actually, looking at the stats, Arrieta's BB rate was quite good in 2012. He was homer prone, but his FIP was 4.05, xFIP 3.65. His ERA was ballooned (to 6.20) by a 57% strand rate, and a .320 BABIP.

Chatwood already has favorable strand rates, and good BABIP. There doesn't seem to be much in common between the two.
   6. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:35 PM (#5600105)
Yes, and for every Arrieta, there are 100 guys who don't figure it out.


Sure, but there's precedent, and with the very organization where Arrieta figured it out.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5600115)
Sure, but there's precedent, and with the very organization where Arrieta figured it out.

see #5. There's pretty good evidence Arrieta had already figured a lof of it out in Baltimore, and then got a big boost from superior defense.

The Cubs deserve credit for recognizing the improvement that was hidden behind horrid results, but it's not like they have some proven formula for turning bad pitchers into good ones.
   8. Zonk, Genius of the Stables Posted: January 03, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5600117)
Health is the key for Chatwood... no sure thing with his track record, I grant -- but even if he doesn't take the expected step forward - he's still probably worth the contract so long as he makes 30 starts. Add in the extreme home/road splits, the GB rate with a great IF defense behind him (not that COL's was bad either), and the fact that his curveball should thrive away from curve-killer Coors and I remain as in love with the Chatwood deal as I was before it was even signed.
   9. PreservedFish Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5600134)
There are always about half a dozen teams whose fans think that their pitching coach can do magical things.
   10. PreservedFish Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5600135)
The SI profile I read on Arrieta attributed his improvement mostly to two things. First, the Cubs just told Arrieta to throw whatever he wanted to throw (the Orioles had required him to go through some insane program where he had to make unnatural changes to his delivery and couldn't use his best pitch). Second, he started doing pilates.
   11. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5600144)
see #5.


I saw your original #5, quoted it in full, and responded to it. Then you added to it.

There's pretty good evidence Arrieta had already figured a lof of it out in Baltimore, and then got a big boost from superior defense.


You're basing an awful lot on one season. Arrieta's BB/9 rates:

4.3
4.4
2.7
6.5 (in 23 IP) Mid season trade to the Cubs:
4.2 (in 51 IP) for a 4.9 in 75 IP for the year
2.4
1.9 CYA year
   12. Zonk, Genius of the Stables Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5600158)
There are always about half a dozen teams whose fans think that their pitching coach can do magical things.


Well, technically -- the lauded magician is no longer employed on the northside.... and harkening back to Bosio being let go (replaced by TBR's Hickey - who is both a Maddon guy and has a very reputation himself), I was pretty vocal in reassessing Bos as basically a product of Arrieta's success and perhaps not the magician his evolving reputation had crowned.

In any case, I just think there are just far too many points in Chatwood's favor... He WAS a top pitching prospect not that long ago - and unlike Jake, he actually HAS had some significant success - a pair of 3.5 WAR seasons plus another 2.2 last year (as opposed to Jake, who never even cracked replacement level until coming to Chicago). Even for Colorado - his home/road splits are night-and-day - he's was great on the road; awful in Coors. His fastball is plus. If you believe statcast, his curve is also a winner - just one neutralized by Colorado air.

I'll admit my expectations for him taking a BIG step forward are sky high - but I think he's a fantastic bet to get there.
   13. PreservedFish Posted: January 03, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5600191)
I was pretty vocal in reassessing Bos as basically a product of Arrieta's success and perhaps not the magician his evolving reputation had crowned.


You were right about that, then.
   14. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: January 03, 2018 at 09:38 PM (#5600525)
The first guy they list, Castillo, has the worst stiff front leg and arm recoil I’ve ever seen in a big league starter. He’s going to nuke his velocity in a season or two with those mechanics.
   15. Harmon "Thread Killer" Microbrew Posted: January 04, 2018 at 09:50 AM (#5600624)
The first guy they list, Castillo, has the worst stiff front leg and arm recoil I’ve ever seen in a big league starter. He’s going to nuke his velocity in a season or two with those mechanics.


He's a dead ringer for Juan Guzman (minus the Jehri Curl).
   16. puck Posted: January 04, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5600645)
he's still probably worth the contract so long as he makes 30 starts.


His career high is 27 in 2016...same difference? (Is 27 starts the new 30?) His peripherals have always been underwhelming but somehow he's done alright for several seasons w/ the Rockies. I kept expecting him to blow up and get tossed out of the rotation but it's been injuries that have been his problem.

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