From Kepner:

"...the Red Sox have fallen squarely into turmoil."

He then mentions that, among other things, Millar is gone. Oh the humanity!

Chip -- Ah yes, wonderful anecdotal evidence. Check out the numbers in Gassko's elegantly designed new system.

I'm referring to the source of his injury problems last year, not to the quality of his defense. He didn't hurt himself sliding, or swinging the bat, or lifting too much in the weight room. He hurt himself diving for balls in the outfield.

If this opens up discussion with the Angels about Finley, I'll kill myself.

It's a good thing the Mets got rid of Cameron while the market was hot. There's no market for him now. Who could they have possibly traded him to?

If this opens up discussion with the Angels about Finley, I'll kill myself.

Eric Byrnes is available.

"He didn't hurt himself sliding, or swinging the bat, or lifting too much in the weight room. He hurt himself diving for balls in the outfield."

Actually, he hurt himself sliding. Just for the record, he was sliding back into second after getting somewhat carelessly too far off the bag.

Well, he also hurt himself in the Toronto outfield.

A little from column A, a little from column B.

Eric Byrnes is available.

That's so not funny.

Boston better not get Crisp, Reed or someone young and useful. Finley would be a wonderful choice. Marte for Finley!

The Yankees won 95 games last year... they suffered from something?

Finley is a certified winner!

The Yankees won 95 games last year... they suffered from something?

A pituitary tumor. Duh.

52 million? Wow. Have fun, Yankees.

"Because what the Yankees really, really suffered from last year was the lack of a nasty lineup."

Don't like this deal but it has to make the Yankees the favorites for the division.
What they suffered from last season was a total lack of pitching depth combined with a ludicrous number of injuries. A lot more than could've been expected even for such an old, brittle staff.
Both the rotation and pen are a good amount deeper for 06 and you can't expect quite THAT many injuries again.
And, yes, the line-up should be even nastier.

The team is looks improved in almost all areas and, if I'm not mistaken, they did actually win the division last year.

Is he overpaid? Definitely. Does his addition make the Yankees a better team? Most definitely.

I don't know how anyone can get down on Damon's defense. When I saw him in a game vs. the Indians this year, he was covering centerfield and left field (he caught a ball hit to manny's right). If that is crappy defense, I would hate to see what a centerfielder with good range can do.

A four year deal is OK. There is a decent chance that he has four good years left. I guess Boras realized that a seven year deal was not going to happen. The Yankees have done what they needed to do: get bull pen help and a center fielder. A rotation of Johnson/Wang/Mussina/Chacon/Pavano looks good. The offense now looks great, and with Damon, the outfield defense is much improved. If only they could find somebody to shoulder some of Giambi's first base load...

His contract is an albatross the minute he signs it. In 2007, Get ready for the BERNIE SHOW 2.0, now with less power, less skill, and no peak. Oh, and no rings.

Oh, he most certainly does have a ring though!

Don't like this deal but it has to make the Yankees the favorites for the division.

Way too early to say that. Every move the Sox have made so far has been great. Let's see what they do to fill CF before we proclaim a favorite.

Let's see what they do to fill CF

and 1B (J.T. Snow seems to be the odds-on favorite at the moment)
and SS (Sea Bass Gonzalez seems to be the odds-on favorite at the moment)

and 1B (J.T. Snow seems to be the odds-on favorite at the moment)

I wish they didn't feel like they needed a 1B.

But yeah, a SS. I guess.

This also takes away any leverage the Red Sox had in trade negotiations. Everybody knows they absolutely need a centerfielder now and are going to ask for more in return.

The Cubs would be (or should be) more than happy to send Neifi Perez and Corey Patterson to Boston to fill out those troublesome areas in CF and SS.

Just send us something shiny in return.

Just send us something shiny in return.

manny?

There's a lot less anger from the Red SOx side than from the Yankees side.

Oh man, if the Sox trade for Steve Finley, I will personally fly to New York and kiss Johnny Damon on the lips.

There's a lot less anger from the Red SOx side than from the Yankees side.

I think cause Damon sucked in September a little. I am starting to worry about this one now a little...

His UZR are similar to David's numbers. He is still projected as an above-average defender (nout counting his rag arm). He is also sitll an excellent baserunner, and of course, an excellent hitter for a CF'er. Boston does not like his defense as much as the numbers.

Overall, the Yankees paid about twice what he is worth, which is not bad for the Yankees. While I am sure it is worth it for them (they paid like 4 mil per marginal win and a marginal win may be worth close to 10 mil in revenue for them), as usual, they could have gotten more value for that same money in a combination of some other players...

Oh man, if the Sox trade for Steve Finley, I will personally fly to New York and kiss Johnny Damon on the lips.

You gonna wait until after he shaves?

I'm not sure anyone has pointed it out, but Damon consistently puts up a WARP3 around 7, and that's with FRAA that tracks very well with Rally Monkey's numbers. So it looks to me like Damon will be a slight bargain in 06, and probably almost worth the deal after. It seems as likely (or liklier) that he'll age like Lofton as Bernie.

MGL,

How could he possibly be worth only $6.5 mil/year if his D and baserunning are above average? BRAA has him at about 30 runs above average per year, that has to be worth $8-$10 mil right there, doesn't it?

I just want to say that I think the servers are holding up remarkably well, considering. Kudos.

Of course, the whole site will probably crash with this post.

I think cause Damon sucked in September a little. I am starting to worry about this one now a little...

Im' not worried unless:

Oh man, if the Sox trade for Steve Finley, I will personally fly to New York and kiss Johnny Damon on the lips.


I'm not worried about Damon's departure. I enjoy watching another Asian person makes a sh!tload of money. What I am worried about is the Steve Finley experience.

Overall, the Yankees paid about twice what he is worth, which is not bad for the Yankees. While I am sure it is worth it for them (they paid like 4 mil per marginal win and a marginal win may be worth close to 10 mil in revenue for them), as usual, they could have gotten more value for that same money in a combination of some other players...

mgl: I agree with Darren's question above, and find this paragraph kind of silly. "The Yankees paid him twice what he is worth?" Well, in fact they paid him what the market found him worth. And then you state "they could have gotten more "value" for that money in a combination of some other players..." To play CF? Who precisely do you have in mind? And once NY becomes interested in them, does their "cost" remain static, or does it rise and cease to be their "value?"

Kevin: To answer your question from IRC (I fell asleep!), I love what the Yankees have done this offseason. MOre than anything, they've exhibited that Cashman is in control. Secondly, they've shown financial restraint. Third, they've protected the youth movement. Damon's a hole-plugger. I'm happy with the terms of the deal. I hate the guy, however, and will have difficulty rooting for him. I'll get over it soon.

Now I'm excited to see what we can get for Bubba Crosby. Maybe a #2 starter or a couple of young top prospects?

The Yankees had a choice between having a good player in center field and a bad one. They chose to get a good one. At the same time, they ensured that rather than having a good player play center field for the Red Sox, their chief rivals, there's a good chance that there will be a bad one.

The fact that this was between the Yankees and the Red Sox, and that neither team had any other options in centerfield, means it was a huge shift in the standings.

mgl: I agree with Darren's question above, and find this paragraph kind of silly. "The Yankees paid him twice what he is worth?" Well, in fact they paid him what the market found him worth. And then you state "they could have gotten more "value" for that money in a combination of some other players..." To play CF? Who precisely do you have in mind? And once NY becomes interested in them, does their "cost" remain static, or does it rise and cease to be their "value?"

All of this is correct. The suggestion that the Yankees paid Johnny Damon twice what he was worth, or that they could have spent the same money on someone else to play centerfield with equal value is a joke.

By the way, if the Red Sox somehow can get Coco Crisp to play centerfield, relatively cheap, than it might help the Sox, not hurt them.

Terrific move by Cashman. I have had my doubts about him but he is easing them away. He stood firm and let Boras know there would be no 5th year. In todays market 4 years $52 million is pretty decent. What was the alternative, Bubba Crosby? Please, Bing would have been a better choice. Corey Patterson, the Baseball america Prospect of the Year every year since 1990?

SJ is such a drama queen.

I think a lot of Sox fans (like myself) were more than happy to have him back but realized with Boras involved the odds were good we'd lose him. I think about a week ago I told a few friends how much I wanted the Jason Michaels era to begin.

I think the Sox FO should have had a deal ready for another player the day he declined arbitration. That would have taken some of the sting out of it.

And then you state "they could have gotten more "value" for that money in a combination of some other players..." To play CF? Who precisely do you have in mind?

I can't speak for MGL, but for me, part of this combination would include Jeff DaVanon, the other JD.

His OBP and SB/CS project similar to Damon, his CF defense is about average. His slugging is nowhere close to Damon and you'd need a RH platoon partner, but you'd have 11-12 million per year left to address other needs.

At this stage of the free agent market, there's nothing worth spending that $ on though, and the Yankees don't have any obvious place to upgrade like CF.

I hate the guy, however, and will have difficulty rooting for him. I'll get over it soon.

What's to hate about Damon, JC, other than that not-any-more Red Sox uniform? He's not the world's greatest acquisition, but he's the best CF that was out there.

I do worry about the consequences of having to shave that beard, though.

By the way, if the Red Sox somehow can get Coco Crisp to play centerfield, relatively cheap, than it might help the Sox, not hurt them.

Not gonna happen. Well, they might get Crisp, but it would likely cost them a lot more than Arroyo.

You know that commercial when Damon gives the guy his beard, they can't really run that one anymore can they?

Sorry, I missed this earlier thread and posted my venom in the Boston Glove thread.

People are right that this isn't necessarily about Damon th ballplayer, or even Damon's contract. If the Yankees signed Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo with the exact same skill set and age for the same money., I would be apprehensive but think it might be worth it. The fact taht it's a player I loathe aand despie is what makes me hate the deal so viscerally. It's not about numbers in this case. It's, quite frankly, about fanboyism.

#### Damon and #### CAshman. FREE BUBBA!

It weird, so far I've liked all the Red Sox moves, but they're going to be left out in the cold if they can't convert some of their youth/flexibility into players that can fill holes on their team. At this point, they really need Schilling and/or Foulke to have big comeback seasons if they want to compete with the Yankees.

You know that commercial when Damon gives the guy his beard, they can't really run that one anymore can they?

That and the one with Theo, where he's wearing the hairpiece.

The vitriol from Yanks fans is kind of amusing, but little consolation to this Sox fan. I'm really gonna hate seeing J.D. in pinstripes.

If you guys have an impression of Damon's personality that is anything other than "likeable," I wonder where it came from. If anything, he has been a little overexposed in the Boston media simply because he's so approachable and open, while quite a few of the other guys on the roster are extremely close-mouthed, for various reasons. He's nothing but an asset, chemistry-wise.

One question is how his game is going to be affected by Bronx Municipal Stadium. His offensive numbers there aren't particularly good the last few years, but over time he might be able to tailor his approach to the ballpark's dimensions better. Having a bigger LF to work with will probably help his average and OBP while hurting his SLG--but who knows how things will work out if he tries pulling balls more. Defensively, I suspect the extra room will keep him healthier; he was just in contact with Fenway's walls too damn often, and played hurt a lot as a result.

Anyway, the bottom line is the Yanks filled their biggest position hole with the player who promises to have the greatest favorable impact in '06. I'm pretty sure it guarantees they'll be the consensus A.L. East favorites once the pre-season prognosticators get busy. Crap.

"he was just in contact with Fenway's walls too damn often, and played hurt a lot as a result."

Good call, and the walls in Yankee stadium look to be more forgiving then the Monster. It's been a long time since the Yanks have had anyone who had a legitimate reason to go crashing into the walls (for anyone who references this years playoffs in response to that statement, I don't know what you're talking about, it never happened).

I haet Johnny Damonn. I hate him more, perhaps, than any other player in baseball other than Randy Johnson.

So he's on my team now. So what? I don't root for Johnny Damon, I root for the Yankees. My desire for Johnny Damon to contract a horrendous case of Syphillis is not lessened by this acquisition, but if he helps guys like A-Rod, Jeter, and Matsui win a championship, then that's how it goes.

Its not a bad signing. He's a skinny, speed player, and those types tend to age alot better than bigger, bulkier guys. True, Bernie fell off a cliff in hs mid 30's, but Bernie's collapse doesn't impune Damon any more than Dale Murphy dooms A-Rod to retire by 34.

The Yankees need to win now. The Red Sox have a better system. 8 of the 9 position players on the Yankees are in their 30's. There isn't much blood coming up from the Farm. The FA market is inflating past the point where the Yankees can win just by signing free agents. Damon isn't blocking any prospects. He's only signed for 4 years. This ##### the Red Sox.

Its a good deal, and a look foward to calling Damon a worthless, ####-sucked, philandering #### as he does his little strut* to the plate.

*Added bonus: Jeter is no longer Yankee with the most blatant "Ladies Love Me" ass-wiggle.

Come one, how can you hate Damon more and Randy Johnson more than Curt Schilling.

Two cents worth from an unbiased outsider . . .

1) The Yankees are going to be, well, interesting to watch around 2008. That's going to be one old, expensive nucleus they're toting around to a ballpark near you. Giambi, Jeter, Damon, Matsui. Heck, even A-Rod will be 32 -- not old, certainly, but clearly leaving his prime behind in the rear view mirror.

2) The Yankees were talking out their collective #### when they kept insisting they could go into the 2006 season with Bubba Crosby as their every day CF. It was bull the first time they said it, and it gained no additional credibility from being repeated ad nauseum. Damon was really the only viable option out there, given that they were unwilling (correctly) to trade their most plausible chips (Cano and Wang).

3) By far and away the Yankees' biggest (only?) vulnerability in 2006 is the fragility/age of their pitching staff. Having two key starters whose combined age on Sept. 10, 2006 will be eighty -- yes, that's 8-0 -- as well as a closer who'll bring 36 more years to the party (that's a hell of a lot of candles on the cake . . . .) -- is a high-risk strategy. Given who they are, of course, it's also a high-reward strategy. But Mussina hasn't pitched 200 innings since 2003, and Johnson looked like a 41 year old pitcher for much of 2005. Unless you hear at some point, "Now warming up in the bullpen for the Yankees, Johnny Damon," this signing isn't going to help out with any of theat.

4) Four years, $52M? I've been saying it for weeks now: the market has changed, with a significant upward move (continuing/accelerating a trend that began last year). Purchasing a marginal win in the FA market is now far more expensive than it has been in years. The Damon signing actually demonstrates one of the reasons: there are fewer players on the market worth a darn, so the supply is constricted. This is critical not just for the usual, general supply/demand reasons, but also because it means there is a shortage of players who can meet a team's particular needs. They are looking not just for marginal wins, but for marginal wins above those they can generate with their current roster. In a market where there are five available players who can improve a team at a position of weakness, they have leverage. In a market where there are two (or worse yet, one), look out.

5) Let's play a little hindsight. If you had known, last year, that the Yankees would be signing Damon at $14M/year for four years to fill the CF hole, would you have been willing to pay Carlos Beltran $17M/year for seven? (That's assuming he wouldn't have taken less from the Yankees, as some reports indicated he would have.) When Beltran's contract expires, he will be 34. When Damon's ends, he will be 36. Acknowledging that it's hindsight, isn't this another case of Cashman misjudging where the market was going (similar to the refusal to pick up Lieber's option)?

6) While I feel the pain of Yankee fans who just loathe Damon and hate the deal for that reason alone, this really will make them a much better team the next two years than they would have been. It's not the next two years of the deal that would worry me. It's the sacrifice of yet another # 1 draft pick. Some addicts just can't break the habit.

The worst part of this deal is it means Torii will no longer be traded for Cano and Wang. Maybe we can get Marte for him.

would you have been willing to pay Carlos Beltran $17M/year for seven?


I'd rather have a centerfielder who doesn't suck, Sam.

Well thank God, ESPN has given us an artist's rendition of the New Damon.

I'd rather have a centerfielder who doesn't suck, Sam.

Beltran was surely overpaid in 2005, but he still didn't suck. Especially not compared to what was going on across town.

What would it take for the Yankees NOT to have a potent offense in 2006? Let's see . . .

Cano would have to fall off considerably.
Sheffield would have to suddenly show his age.
One of the others -- Matsui, Giambi, A-Rod, or Jeter -- would have to get hurt and miss a lot of the season.

I'd say it would take all three of those things, wouldn't it? Or something equivalent to that sort of piling up of bad news?

"they could have gotten more value for that same money in a combination of some other players..."

Right. Left-center in the Stadium is still fairly deep...i bet the Yanks could hide that combination of other players out there and the umps wouldn't even notice they're utilizing a 12 man lineup.

"What would it take for the Yankees NOT to have a potent offense in 2006?"

Losing anyone left of 1st in the infield would be a huge problem because the Yankee replacements would be sub-replacement level. Still, you're looking at a team that has above average to great offense on every position on the diamond, it would take alot.

"If you guys have an impression of Damon's personality that is anything other than "likeable," I wonder where it came from."

You somehow missed ALCS 04 game 7?

Given Damon's broad base of skills and foot speed, I suspect that he will age well. This will clearly help the Yankees in 2006, and I think Cashamn has had a well thought-out off-season. He's improved CF, the bullpen, and teh backup C. If they add Cairo it back up IF that will be a plus move as well.

That said, this is another 31-32 year-old the Yankees are committed to into the future for big money. Still, weighing the pros and cons, I think it was the right call by Cashman.

Also, the marketing angle with the hair/beard removal is a small plus.

You somehow missed ALCS 04 game 7?

Um, are you referring to what is otherwise known as "Our Finest Hour?" No, I definitely did not miss that. Sweeeeeeeet.

Don't worry, Phil, we're well used to that by now. Hell, if they actually jog, that's an improvement. They used to stop and chat with Jeter between 2nd and 3rd

Thanks for the hilarious mental image. Maybe I'm just tired but this really struck me as funny.

Best Regards

John

Darren and JC....

Damon is projected at +4 runs (per 150) in defense, -2 in arm, +3 in baserunning and +10 in batting runs. His batting lwts for the last 4 years have been:

+8
0
+22
+13

That is a total of +15 runs above average or around 33 runs above replacement.

I'm not going to argue about the value of those 3.3 wins above replacement. Everyone has a different opinion on that, which is fine. While generally a team can upgrade somewhere for a lot less than 4 mil per marginal win, after I wrote what I wrote, I realized that the Yankees were pretty much set at all of their positions other than CF. So even if they gave me 13 mil (Damon's average one-year salary), I am not sure that I could have done better than 3.3 wins above replacement...

Thanks for the explanation, MGL. You and BP must have a very different replacement level--they have Damon at 7+ WARP the last couple years, so you'd expect a projection in that neighborhood.

Why are these numbers so different?

mgl, what is Damon's marginal wins value over the Yankee alternatives (Bernie or Crosby)? I'm almost positive that either Crosby or Bernie would fall below replacement level, meaning that the Yanks replacement level might be lower then yours at the moment. That of course is an organizational problem, but it might also explain why Damon was worth so much to the Yanks. If the best option the Yanks had was a win below replacement level then that adds to Damon's value to the Yanks.

they have Damon at 7+ WARP the last couple years, so you'd expect a projection in that neighborhood.

BPro uses a lower replacement level, plus they have separate replacement levels for offense and defense, so JD would be (for example) +5 defense over average, +25 defense over replacement.

An average CF might be 35 or 40 runs or so over replacement, MGL had the difference at +18 in the Damon example.

MGL has the correct approach (as usual). Prospectus has NEIFI PEREZ at +5.2 wins over replacement for 2005, so they are wrong, clearly wrong, and have no case to claim they are doing it right.

I don't know how BP comes up with their wins over replacement, but it seems to be a little silly. One of these days, I'll ask Joe or Nate.

I really only fault teams for either clearly misevaluating someone's talent or getting significantly fewer marginal wins then could have (had they been a smart team) for the same dollars spent. I don't think either of these applies to the Yankees and Damon.

Actually, Bernie and Crosby are right around replacement level. It is not easy to find anyone who is signifciantly below replacement level, as you should expect. That is why it is so easy to get replacement level talent.

The only players I have seen lately on an ML roster whom I have projected at worse than replacement (by only a few runs) are:

Roger Cedeno
Cordero
Dee Brown
E Wilson
T Long
R Simon
D Ward
Febles
Restovitch
M Tucker
E Diaz
Macias
K Garcia
L Harris
Mondesi

It is possible for someone who is below replacement overall to have some value as a "platoon pinch hitter" or even a platoon starter, if they have an unusually high platoon split...