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1. herb12 Posted: August 18, 2011 at 06:21 PM (#3903212)The year he wasn't better than a replacement player was literally one of the worst seasons in the history of baseball.
Definitely an overpayment, but not terrible (Francoeur has an OPS+ of 119 this year, and has 2.2 WAR as per BReference).
I would have preferred that the Royals sign him for just one year, though.
What is remarkable is how good an investment Melky Cabrera has been for the Royals (OPS+ of 129 and a 2.5 WAR, in 120 out of 124 games played by the Royals this year).
That's quite a commitment after having one good year preceded by 3 terrible ones.
That said, I don't understand where this contract fits into the big picture. This may not necessarily mean that the Royals don't see a future for Lorenzo Cain but I suspect Melky will be back next season since the Royals can offer arbitration and I don't see Cain bumping Alex Gordon from the lineup. If Myers is a prospect of any sort, he should be ready much sooner than "sometime in 2013". He'll have had 2+ seasons of AA/AAA ball in that time and if the Royals believe he is in their future, this contract blocks him.
I really don't mind this contract for a different organization that may be at a different spot on the success cycle. It seems like a bad fit for where the Royals are.
That's kind of a low bar there.
It's not reasonably priced. Only Dayton Moore would give Frency this contract.
It's not just the ages. If Frenchy had an OPS+ of 68 this year he probably isn't getting a two-year extension today.* And if Kearns had one of 119, he isn't getting released.
* Though with Dayton involved, that can't be ruled out entirely.
Well, you could optimistically think that the Royals are figuring if Frenchy has a good first half next year they could get something for him in trade.
OFs:
Matt Diaz - 2/4.25
Others:
Adam Laroch - 2/15
Orlando Hudson - 2/11.5
Ty Wiggington - 2/8
AJ Pierz - 2/8
Yorvit Torrealba - 2/6.25
Jhonny Peralta - 2/11.25
why don't they just release Kila and let him go play in Japan?
why did they trade for Mike Jacobs?
why did anoint Gordon as their savior, demote him after he had established himself as an adequate MLB starting 3b, why did they let him tear up AAA for several hundred PAs, promote him back and demote him again let him tear up AAA and more him from 3B to the OF when all observers said he played 3B just fine? So Callaspo could play 3B? Who they promptly traded...
There was a time that Justin Huber (C/1B) was a ranked prospect by BA, the Royals traded for him, in 2005 he hit .326/.417/.560 between AA/AAA, and yet the Royals go and get Mancavitch to play 1b in 2006, they bring up Huber mid - season and he sits on the bench for a month, then gets demoted, to date his career high in PAs is 85, the Royals then hand over the 1B job to Ross effing Gload... this in and of itself doesn't mean anything, Huber stopped hitting even at AAA a couple of years ago - but basically jerking him around (very similar to what they did with Kila), committing to Gload- and over the hill ex-prospect- and sticking with him for 2+ excruciatingly awful years is all I would argue evidence/ a symptom
no the people running the Royals do not actually have a plan.
Huh. I wonder, which is the more likely scenario.
Oh, and HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
It's the perfect, perfect Dayton Moore signing. I look forward to what Rany and Poz have to say.
Really? It seems to me like they just lit $13.5M on fire.
Is there any reason to think Francoeur is one bit better than Lorenzo Cain?
Having 2 CFs (or 1.5 depending on what you think of Melky's D), would seem like a good idea to help their young arms develop.
You mean it's not literally* the worst contract in the league?
*If Carl Crawford is hitting .250/.290/.380 at this time in 2012, he will have inherited the mantle.
Would anyone sign with their Royals if they could make anything close to the same salary elsewhere?
Why not? If the difference is being on the bench and playing once every two weeks or being given a legitimate chance at a starting job, why wouldn't you sign with the Royals?
72
93
84
Certainly in the running for worst regular in baseball over those three years. If the Royals know something we don't, and Melky's and Francouer's new lives at the plate are sustainable, that's one thing; but given Francouer's ten cent head I'd be skeptical of how permanent is any improvement, and when has Dayton Moore ever really known something we don't?
The more things stay, the more they change the sane ...
Frenchy's hit pretty well since the All-Star break, with a lot of doubles (half of his hits), after two months of teh suck. I think he's more likely to sustain something close to this level of performance over the contract than he is to fall back.
-- MWE
It seems to me that this is the baseline for judging Royals transactions. If they just did this, then it's an OK move, since they apparently are unable to spend money well. What we all tend to look at is whether they did damage *beyond* lighting money on fire (like blocking talented players, etc).
That all says a lot more about the Royals than about the Primates, of course.
"Circumstances", from Hemispheres.
Superb.
Really Mike? Looking at his stat lines I see:
'06 A 132 wRC+, '07 A+ 96 wRC+, '08 A+/AA 134/127 wRC+, '09 A/AA 74/68 wRC+ (only 220 PAs, was he hurt?), '10 AA/AAA/MLB 146/117/113 wRC+, '11 AAA 117 wRC+.
There are a couple of clunker seasons in there, but it sure looks like he might have a good chance of being an average MLB hitter, which is damn good for a CF.
Frenchy's hit pretty well since the All-Star break, with a lot of doubles (half of his hits), after two months of teh suck. I think he's more likely to sustain something close to this level of performance over the contract than he is to fall back.
He's more likely to match 500 PAs this season than 3500 career PAs before this?
Mike has been projecting for awhile that Frenchy would enjoy a nice run of offensive seasons, envisioning a career path similar to Jose Guillen. The 500 PAs this season are just Frenchy finally meeting his expectations.
I guess another relevant question is this: Is Frenchy or Melky more likely to turn into a pumpkin in 2012? I honestly don't know, but I suppose the Royals are thinking Melky is more likely not to repeat, and that Cain will replace him next year.
I think the idea is that Melky still has a year of team control. So in theory, they could trade Melky, keep Frenchy and get some value out of it.
2008-2010, 900+ PAs:
1 Jeff Francoeur -2.3
2 Lastings Milledge -2.3
3 Gary Matthews -2.3
4 Mark Kotsay -2.2
5 Mike Jacobs -2.1
6 Mark Teahen -1.5
7 Ken Griffey -1.3
8 Ryan Spilborghs -1.2
9 Jose Guillen -1.1
10 Geoff Blum -0.8
11 Jonny Gomes -0.7
12 Andy LaRoche -0.4
13 Brad Hawpe -0.3
14 Garrett Atkins -0.3
15 Yuniesky Betancourt -0.3
I don't get the idea that Cain is some kind of Prospect being blocked
he's a 25 year old hitting .306/.376/.506 in a league that hits .286/.359/.451
top 33, PCL by OPS (250+ PAs):
Rk BA OBP SLG Age1 Wily Mo Pena .358 .440 .712 29
2 Anthony Rizzo* .355 .431 .703 21
3 Bryan LaHair .335 .412 .667 28
4 Brett Lawrie .353 .415 .661 21
5 Cody Ransom .331 .412 .657 35
6 Mike Carp .343 .411 .649 25
7 Ryan Langerhans* .322 .431 .587 31
8 Taylor Green .337 .419 .587 24
9 Eric Young .363 .454 .552 26
10 Bryan Petersen .351 .434 .569 25
11 David Cooper* .371 .444 .556 24
12 Brandon Allen .299 .413 .578 25
13 Collin Cowgill* .354 .430 .554 25
14 Charlie Blackmon* .337 .393 .572 24
15 Bobby Scales .304 .424 .535 33
16 Mike Wilson .318 .407 .545 28
17 Jesus Guzman .332 .423 .529 27
18 Chris Nelson .341 .382 .557 25
19 Mat Gamel .320 .380 .558 25
20 Justin Sellers .304 .400 .537 25
21 Aaron Cunningham .329 .398 .532 25
22 Travis Snider* .346 .414 .509 23
23 Mike Jacobs .298 .376 .534 30
24 Dustin Ackley .303 .421 .487 23
25 Adam Loewen* .310 .383 .523 27
26 Clint Robinson* .317 .393 .511 26
27 Jamie Hoffmann .312 .374 .530 26
28 Joey Butler .333 .391 .511 25
29 Gil Velazquez .339 .409 .483 31
30 Paul McAnulty .310 .369 .523 30
31 Brett Pill .313 .343 .548 26
32 Cole Gillespie .304 .413 .473 27
33 Lorenzo Cain .306 .376 .506 25
EDIT: @51 - none of the other players are center fielders.
he's a 25 year old hitting .306/.376/.506 in a league that hits .286/.359/.451
I'm not saying he's great, but I'm guessing he could give you a 90-95 wRC+ and play decent D in CF, for free, which is as good as Frenchy.
Use the $13.5M to lock up some of the young guys, or buy some SP.
Of course, he'll probably be 30 points below that...
Francouer's like an accountant who doesn't know the definitions of "profit" and "loss" and is puzzled that his client base dwindled to that ninny in Kansas City.
edit: the note on Jose Guillen, above, is interesting. In Guillen's first six seasons his OPS+ was 80. 80. He was a corner OFer. I don't recall his defense being stellar. It's astonishing he was able to hang around long enough to put up one good and three decent seasons.
Anyone familiar with Guillen's reputation as a young player wrt his baseball intellect?
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