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Saturday, October 20, 2012

CBS Local / New York: The Definition Of Insanity? Yankees Likely Not Planning Major Overhaul

[Jon] Heyman has learned the Yankees are not planning on attempting to trade [Alex] Rodriguez ...

“He’s our third baseman,” general manager Brian Cashman said. “I’m going to focus on other areas.”

Pressed a bit further, Cashman repeated that he has no plans or expectations to talk about trades for A-Rod. “No, I’m not,” he said, flatly. ...

The Yankees are still planning to make a qualifying offer [to Nick Swisher], but only to protect the draft choice, not with any hope or expectation that Swisher would accept the offer and return to the Bronx, Heyman reported.

The Yankees were certain all season they’d extend the qualifying offer, which is expected to be for about $13.5 million in the new set-up, but the great likelihood seems to be that Swisher could beat that total on a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Competing executives told Heyman they see Swisher getting a three-year deal, or thereabouts, following a season in which he had 24 home runs, 93 RBI and a .272 batting average.

The Yankees have no interest in making Swisher a multi-year deal at the going rate, but that’s mostly about their desire to get their payroll below the luxury tax threshold of $189 million in 2014. ...

Heyman has also learned the Yankees plan to pick up [Curtis] Granderson’s $15 million option.

bobm Posted: October 20, 2012 at 01:02 AM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: albert einstein, alex rodriguez, yankees

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   1. Swedish Chef Posted: October 20, 2012 at 06:46 AM (#4277288)
All that sounds insanely reasonable.
   2. Greg K Posted: October 20, 2012 at 07:14 AM (#4277290)
Just out of curiosity, is there a quick primer for how the new qualifying offer system works? It seems pretty straight-forward but what I was reading earlier seemed to have some ambiguity as to whether to set amount for qualifying offers was a minimum amount, or the mandatory amount for all offers.
   3. jyjjy Posted: October 20, 2012 at 07:56 AM (#4277294)
Best record in the league and this bozo acts like everything doesn't need to be thrown out and rebuilt due to only making it to the ALCS? The only question is why Cashman hasn't been fired to start the overhaul. Meek acceptance of such epic failure cannot be tolerated in the house next to the house that Ruth built.
   4. bunyon Posted: October 20, 2012 at 08:22 AM (#4277299)
Of all the routes the Yanks might take, doing nothing is probably in the top 2 or 3, if not the best.

I'm not saying there aren't some issues they might address. But, as discussed elsewhere on the board, those aren't easy issues to address.
   5. bobm Posted: October 20, 2012 at 08:26 AM (#4277300)
[2]

New compensation rules affect trade market

Teams swayed to keep prospects because they can't deal with eye on Draft picks

By Paul Hagen / MLB.com | 07/27/12 10:00 AM ET ...

Braves senior advisor for player personnel Jim Fregosi agrees. "It lessens the value of the player you're trading for. Because if you keep a player all year long, you get compensation. If you trade him, you don't get compensation. It actually lessens the value of the trade, so people are more likely to keep the player for the full year unless they can get what they think is an almost Major League-ready player. It stops some of the trade value," he said.There's more to it than that, too. Using Hamels as an example again, any team that traded for him would not have received any compensation if they were unable to sign him. Previously, they would have gotten two Draft choices.

On the other hand, if the Phillies didn't sign or trade Hamels and he became a free agent, they would have had to make a qualifying offer to him in order to be eligible for compensation if he signed with another team. A qualifying offer is a one-year deal for the average of the top 125 salaries the previous season; this year it's expected to be about $12.5 million. If he turned that down and signed elsewhere, the Phillies would have gotten a compensatory sandwich pick at the end of the first round, not two picks as they would have before.

Further, the team that signed Hamels would forfeit its first-round choice. That doesn't change. The difference is that the pick would not go to the Phillies as it did in the past.That may be why many of the trades that have been made so far involved players like Hanely Ramirez and Wandy Rodriguez, who are under control beyond this season.

That doesn't mean teams won't make win-now moves, of course. The Braves were reportedly willing to send 22-year-old Randall Delgado, considered one of their best pitching prospects as recently as last year, to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. Dempster quashed the move by not agreeing to waive his no-trade rights.

There were several reasons for changing the system. Both the teams and Players Association had become convinced that the Type A-Type B system used to determine compensation was flawed, especially when it came reflecting the value of relief pitchers. There was also a concern that too many compensation picks were diluting the Draft; this year's number of supplemental picks almost equaled that of a complete round.

And it was further designed to try to improve competitive balance. The worry was that some high-revenue teams were able to improve their Draft position when they both signed and lost a ranked free agent. There was also a growing concern over the apparent trend for teams to acquire players late in the season for no reason other than to obtain Draft-pick compensation.It's still early. So far, though, the changes seem to be working.
   6. bobm Posted: October 20, 2012 at 08:34 AM (#4277301)
[2] for details on how the qualifying offer works, see page 260 of: mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 20, 2012 at 08:42 AM (#4277302)
The issue for the Yankees is the revenue sharing refund, I think. They are planning to get the payroll under the luxury tax threshold by 2014. So they don't have a lot of flexibility to eat salary and then replace the lost talent with new players.
   8. AROM Posted: October 20, 2012 at 08:51 AM (#4277304)
Only to the extent that they won't be able to field a payroll like the recent Yankee teams. They've got Tex, CC, and A-Rod under contract for around 70 million. That leaves them with *only* 100 million to fill out the rest of the roster.
   9. Darren Posted: October 20, 2012 at 10:16 AM (#4277328)
MC (or anyone)--what's the deal with getting under the threshold? Is it just for 2014 or is it for any year within a certain period?
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 20, 2012 at 10:31 AM (#4277333)
what's the deal with getting under the threshold? Is it just for 2014 or is it for any year within a certain period?
As best as I can tell, the real value is in getting under the threshold and staying under. There is a discount on the rate of the luxury tax if you get under once, but the "rebate" looks like the real story.

Teams in the 15 largest markets (with the exception of the A's) are no longer eligible to receive revenue sharing redistribution - if the Phillies go through another run of terrible play, they will not be able to receive redistributed money from the top revenue clubs. The money that would have been redistributed is rebated to the revenue sharing payors. This is the key exception - clubs that are over the luxury tax threshold cannot receive any of the rebated money. I don't know how much money these rebates account for, but the responses of the Sox and Yankees suggest it's a lot - maybe $10M or more.

I expect the days of the Sox running over the threshold are pretty much over, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees are thinking along the same lines.
   11. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 20, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4277348)
Did the current CBA change anything about the bonus the Yankees were getting from the debt service on the new stadium? I believe those costs were taken out of their theoretical revenue-sharing money.
   12. jyjjy Posted: October 20, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4277350)
Gotta be a lot more than 10 million or the Yankees wouldn't care.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 20, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4277353)
Bringing back ARod probably makes sense, since a decent trade is going to be very hard to arrange, and 3B are scarce.

But Swisher and Granderson should both be gone.

   14. Answer Guy Posted: October 20, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4277355)
They lost four games in a row. With Derek Jeter injured.

No idea how representative this piece is of the NY press, but unless this is an outlier they're worse than Boston press on this stuff, and that's really saying something.
   15. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 20, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4277358)
Trading ARod would be a terrible move, considering that they'd have to pay 80%+ of his salary anyways. May as well hope for a bounceback from an inner circle HOFer.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 20, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4277361)
They lost four games in a row. With Derek Jeter injured.

The issue is they couldn't score runs (except for fluke Ibanez homers) for 8 straight games, including the last 4 vs. Balt. The pitching was great, but multiple hitters looked like they had never faced major league pitching before (ARod, Cano, Granderson).
   17. depletion Posted: October 20, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4277458)
Maybe Detroit's pitchers were actually pitching really well. On ESPN radio, Orel Hershiser opined that the sweep was more than 50% Detroit pitching well, rather than the Yankees hitting so poorly. The Yankees are not set up, perhaps, to win 2-1 ballgames as much as 9-8 games. I agree, that there isn't point to great changes, given the contracts. Now might be the time to move Jeter off shortstop and try to improve the infield D.
   18. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: October 20, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4277469)
Now move? 2004 would have been the optimal time to move.
   19. eddieot Posted: October 20, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4277500)
A qualifying offer is a one-year deal for the average of the top 125 salaries the previous season; this year it's expected to be about $12.5 million

Props to the MLBPA on this point. Just wow.
   20.   Posted: October 20, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4277503)
I swear the MSM is getting dumber with each passing year.
   21. JE (Jason) Posted: October 20, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4277517)
Now might be the time to move Jeter off shortstop and try to improve the infield D.

To where? 3B? Can anyone see Jeter agreeing to be a full-time DH for '13? I can't.
   22. Accent Shallow Posted: October 20, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4277526)
Maybe Detroit's pitchers were actually pitching really well. On ESPN radio, Orel Hershiser opined that the sweep was more than 50% Detroit pitching well, rather than the Yankees hitting so poorly.


I'm willing to buy that, sure. Although it wasn't like Verlander went out and struck out 12, you know? But yes, those are good pitchers, more than capable of shutting down a top-tier offense, to say nothing of an above average one.

The Yankees are not set up, perhaps, to win 2-1 ballgames as much as 9-8 games.


I dunno, the pitching was great, up until Hughes in Game 3, and even then, that game was 2-1. Usually the teams that aren't set up to win those games are the ones with shitty pitching staffs; a leaky pen or a bad starter is more likely to ruin a game like that for you.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: October 20, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4277602)
To where? 3B? Can anyone see Jeter agreeing to be a full-time DH for '13? I can't.

He just broke his ankle and will be 39. He'll agree to play wherever his ankle allows him to play.

They've got Tex, CC, and A-Rod under contract for around 70 million. That leaves them with *only* 100 million to fill out the rest of the roster.

Yes, there are worse problems to have. But assuming they exercise the options on Cano and Granderson, they are already committed to $146 for next year. That doesn't include arb awards which could run $30 M (one of them is Kuroda). That leaves them still without Martin, Swisher, Pettitte, Ichiro, Jones, Ibanez, Chavez and Rivera. So $174 and needing a starting C, starting RF, a starting pitcher, a bench and presumably they want Rivera back. They aren't getting below $189 this year.

They could kinda handle this -- non-tender Hughes and Joba, hope Pineda is Pineda and let Pettitte walk, don't bring back Rivera, hope Romine is ready. Or maybe Pettitte and Rivera both cut them sweet deals.

   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 20, 2012 at 06:12 PM (#4277624)
Yes, there are worse problems to have. But assuming they exercise the options on Cano and Granderson, they are already committed to $146 for next year. That doesn't include arb awards which could run $30 M (one of them is Kuroda). That leaves them still without Martin, Swisher, Pettitte, Ichiro, Jones, Ibanez, Chavez and Rivera. So $174 and needing a starting C, starting RF, a starting pitcher, a bench and presumably they want Rivera back. They aren't getting below $189 this year.

They could kinda handle this -- non-tender Hughes and Joba, hope Pineda is Pineda and let Pettitte walk, don't bring back Rivera, hope Romine is ready. Or maybe Pettitte and Rivera both cut them sweet deals.


But the goal is not to get under the cap next year, it's 2014 they're allegedly targeting.

They can give Kuroda, Rivera, and Pettitte one year deals, exercise options on Can and Granderson, andmake a qualifying offer to Swisher, and still get all that money off the books in 2014.
   25. depletion Posted: October 20, 2012 at 07:10 PM (#4277644)
To where? 3B? Can anyone see Jeter agreeing to be a full-time DH for '13? I can't.

How could he be worse in LF than Raul Ibanez? I guess it's possible.
   26. phredbird Posted: October 20, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4277660)
To where? 3B? Can anyone see Jeter agreeing to be a full-time DH for '13? I can't.


is it nuts to think they'd dump texeira and pay a bunch of his salary so they can move the captain to 1b? don't follow the yanks that closely, so just asking.
   27. SoSH U at work Posted: October 20, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4277726)


is it nuts to think they'd dump texeira and pay a bunch of his salary so they can move the captain to 1b? don't follow the yanks that closely, so just asking.


That seems like an expensive way to make your team worse.
   28. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 20, 2012 at 10:26 PM (#4277741)
A qualifying offer is a one-year deal for the average of the top 125 salaries the previous season; this year it's expected to be about $12.5 million.


Because of mid-season contract extensions, I believe this went up to $13.5 mill.
   29. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 20, 2012 at 11:59 PM (#4277779)
Trading ARod would be a terrible move, considering that they'd have to pay 80%+ of his salary anyways. May as well hope for a bounceback from an inner circle HOFer.


There is no way they'd have to pay 80% of his salary. Or anything close.
   30. McCoy Posted: October 21, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4277784)
ARod is 37 and owed almost 120 million dollars through 2017 and that isn't including any of the bonuses. He'll get to 660 so that is another 6 million so now it is almost 125 million at least. In the last two seasons he has played 99 and 122 and he has never had a full season of play where his SLG was as low as was in the last two season. Nobody is touching that contract.
   31. phredbird Posted: October 21, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4277814)
is it nuts to think they'd dump texeira and pay a bunch of his salary so they can move the captain to 1b? don't follow the yanks that closely, so just asking.


That seems like an expensive way to make your team worse.


yes, but if they want to keep jeter somethings got to give. can he really field his position after this injury? i dunno, maybe jetes will actually decide he can stand the outfield. but i'd be surprised.
   32. Dan Evensen Posted: October 21, 2012 at 02:57 AM (#4277839)
Thanks to #6 for the link to the CBA. I've had some fun scrolling around that thing. I didn't know it was publicly available.

Are prior CBAs also publicly available? I'm very curious.
   33. Walt Davis Posted: October 21, 2012 at 03:00 AM (#4277840)
But the goal is not to get under the cap next year, it's 2014 they're allegedly targeting.

Yeah, I know. But you're still talking a base of $174 and then ...

starting C
starting RF
Pettitte
Rivera

Those guys cost something like $36 M his year so now they're up to $210 and they don't have a bench and need a couple of relievers. That's affordable, in fact unless Pettitte asks for a lot it's not much more than this year's payroll. But it's also the exact same team only a year older (with Pineda back but who knows after shoulder surgery).

Then, sure ... let Granderson go, let Pettitte go, let Rivera go, let Soriano go, let Jeter go, let Kuroda go, let Logan go, let Joba go. ARod, CC, Tex, Cano, the new RF, the new C ... that's probably about $114. Their rotation will be CC, Pineda, Nova; their bullpen will be Robertson; and they will need a SS, LF/CF, DH too. Of course they'll be there whether they go nuts on 1-year payroll this year or not so I guess you might as well go nuts this year.

I'm not gonna write them off yet. The annoying bastards have always seemed to pull some good player out of their system and sometimes it's like the league does their best to give the Yanks good value in trades. They'll probably trade Nunez for Justin Upton.

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