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Sunday, August 20, 2017

CC Sabathia went from lowest low to highest high in two weeks | New York Post

From retirement to rescue, all in a 12-day span for CC Sabathia.

If it didn’t quite match Homer Simpson going through the five stages of grief in less than 60 seconds (Season 2, when he eats the poison blowfish), well … that was make-believe. This actually happened.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 20, 2017 at 10:11 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: c.c. sabathia, yankees

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   1. BDC Posted: August 20, 2017 at 11:51 AM (#5517250)
They don't come much more similar, in terms of results, than these two through age 36 (which is Buehrle's entire career):

Player          WAR  GS ERA+   Age CG SHO   W   L W-L%     IP  ERA  FIP
CC Sabathia    59.6 502  117 20
-36 38  12 233 146 .615 3276.2 3.71 3.69
Mark Buehrle   58.9 493  117 21
-36 33  10 214 160 .572 3283.1 3.81 4.11 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/20/2017.
   2. Mans Best Friend Posted: August 20, 2017 at 12:06 PM (#5517253)
Buehrle is tenth by similarity score (#1 is Tim Hudson). By age, it's Glavine. Through age 31, Doc Gooden.

Peak Sabathia was much better than peak Buerhle.
   3. Tom Nawrocki Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:47 PM (#5517354)
Sabathia has now recorded more strikeouts than any other lefthander in AL history. This sounds pretty impressive, until you learn that the man whose record he broke was....


S
P
O
I
L
E
R

S
P
A
C
E


...the legendary Mickey Lolich.
   4. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:54 PM (#5517358)
Sabathia is probably going to end up getting another decent contract this off season, I can see him getting a 3 year 50 mil deal easily. Which would give him probably another 40 or so career wins(if he signs with a team with a decent offense and not a pitchers park) Probably puts him at about 270 career wins going into his age 40 season...It's unlikely he'll be putting up a 110 era+, but if he does, he has a real chance of 300 career wins.
   5. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: August 20, 2017 at 06:02 PM (#5517534)
Sabathia is probably going to end up getting another decent contract this off season, I can see him getting a 3 year 50 mil deal easily.


I scoffed at this, then I looked. Dammit, you are right. He's been pretty good this year. 3 years for about $50 million is probably right....

Wow.
   6. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 20, 2017 at 06:27 PM (#5517558)
Sabathia is probably going to end up getting another decent contract this off season, I can see him getting a 3 year 50 mil deal easily.

I very much doubt that there will be such interest in Sabathia that anyone will feel the need to offer him 3 years, or want to. Not going to get $17M/year, either. Sabathia is getting by, barely, in 5 inning starts, missing time with injuries, with a 3.99 ERA & a 4.46 FIP. Both may be higher by the time the season is done. Got to be better options for any team's $50M
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 07:34 PM (#5517576)
I very much doubt that there will be such interest in Sabathia that anyone will feel the need to offer him 3 years, or want to. Not going to get $17M/year, either. Sabathia is getting by, barely, in 5 inning starts, missing time with injuries, with a 3.99 ERA & a 4.46 FIP. Both may be higher by the time the season is done. Got to be better options for any team's $50M


We'll see I guess, it really depends on whether or not Sabathia wants to pitch another three or four years. 17mil is chump change on the free agent market for a starting pitcher. (Rich Hill got a 3 year 48mil contract before 2017)
   8. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 20, 2017 at 07:53 PM (#5517590)
Rich Hill got a 3 year 48mil contract before 2017

Rich Hill went 12-5 with a 2.12 ERA in 2016. If Sabathia did that, he'd be worth taking some risks for, but he didn't. Not to mention that you need to inject his knee with painkillers and a quart of motor oil before every start. I wish Sabathia well, and he'll get a shot, but no big bucks or 3-year contracts are likely.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 08:11 PM (#5517602)
Rich Hill went 12-5 with a 2.12 ERA in 2016.


He also only pitched 110 innings, and from 2010 to 2015 he threw a total of 215 innings... 10-5 this season after 108 innings pitched, and has a better history as a starting pitcher.

John Lackey got a two year 32mil contract, Leake got a 5 year for 80mil, Jeremy Hellickson got 17mil and a one year deal. Ivan Nova got 13mil a year, Brett Anderson 11mil, etc... you look up and down the free agent signing list and starting pitchers that put up around 100 era+ are routinely getting 13-17 mil.

17 mil might beon the high side, but it's not out of the reality.
   10. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: August 20, 2017 at 10:14 PM (#5517657)
When in doubt ALWAYS take the over when it comes to contracts.
   11. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 20, 2017 at 10:39 PM (#5517668)
Sabathia was really bad in 2013-15 and has been pretty good last year and this, but he's no longer a workhorse. GMs know that the 2006-12 Sabathia is long gone.
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 10:42 PM (#5517670)
When in doubt ALWAYS take the over when it comes to contracts.


Agree, I've under projected potential contracts about 80% of the time(and 15% of the time when I over projected, it hasn't been by much---i.e. I had Heyward getting 200mil, he got 184 and took less than what the Cardinals offered him) .... I just assume any player who is projected to be average is going to get a $15mil a year contract, and if they have any history or potential career honors coming, add in a few more mil.... (which is why I came up with 3 for $50 for Sabathia)
   13. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 10:50 PM (#5517675)
Sabathia was really bad in 2013-15 and has been pretty good last year and this, but he's no longer a workhorse. GMs know that the 2006-12 Sabathia is long gone.


I don't doubt any of that, but his two most recent seasons look to be 160 innings pitched at 115 era+.... Between this season, and last season, you are looking at a guy who will probably have 58 starts, 320 ip at an era+ of 115.

He's a hovg type of player(if not hofer) who teams will be more than willing to take a chance on, and is only going to be 37...which I get is old, but isn't "old"....
   14. Howie Menckel Posted: August 20, 2017 at 11:29 PM (#5517695)
Sabathia is probably going to end up getting another decent contract this off season, I can see him getting a 3 year 50 mil deal easily.

if he gets 3 for 40, I will raise a glass to your superior acumen on this.
   15. Lars6788 Posted: August 21, 2017 at 12:35 AM (#5517704)
Last time I checked Sabathia was still around 300 pounds and once had a drinking problem - the physical toll in his body and arm makes it hard to believe that any success he's had in recent years is due to nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

He may not make it past the first month of next season - if he has to start over with a different organization at 38.
   16. Ithaca2323 Posted: August 21, 2017 at 10:27 AM (#5517803)
Regarding a contract for Sabathia, I have to agree with CFB. It's worth pointing out Rich Hill, at the time he earned that contract with the Dodgers, had a grand total of 94 starts and had thrown 610 IP. in his career The idea that Sabathia, who has managed 79 and 455 from the point where his career looked completely over, would be considered more risky, and thus less deserving of a contract, strikes me as strange.

Regarding his career, I think Sabathia has a shot at the Hall of Fame. Sure, it's easy to just handwave away 60 WAR and a 117 ERA+ when you look at Mussina and Schilling. But, both of those guys will be in by the time Sabathia gets on a ballot (Well, Schilling would be if he'd kept his mouth shut). If CC has 65 WAR, 250 wins, and 3,000 strikeouts...that's a pretty good resume seeing as it comes with a Cy Young award and a WS ring—and don't think the fact that he was the reason the Yankees could go with a three man rotation in 2009 won't matter to the voters. It's not a Kershaw or Scherzer resume, but that's going to get a very long look.
   17. Loren F. Posted: August 21, 2017 at 12:24 PM (#5517898)
As a Yankees fan, I see two considerations: the free agent market, and Sabathia's expected performance. It seems clear to me that the team will need to sign a free agent starter, as right now the top three starters look to be Severino, Gray and, um, maybe Montgomery (and Montgomery, a rookie, is no sure thing although his peripherals are better than Sabathia's). When I look at the free agent starters that will be available this offseason, there aren't a lot of names who look like better bets than Sabathia. Jaime Garcia? Doug Fister? I'd feel differently if it were a choice between Darvish/Arrieta and Sabathia, but I'm assuming the Yankees will not be in the running for those pitchers. I'm not sure signing Sabathia would affect whether the Yanks went after a Darvish-level starter in the market. I could be wrong, but I see the Yankees' choice as Sabathia or another 2 WAR type starter. Another small consideration is that there's a small portion of pitchers who find it difficult to pitch New York once they join a NY team; that's not an issue for Sabathia. So I think it's a reasonable idea to re-sign Sabathia, under the right terms.

What about expected performance? Yes, Sabathia is a five-inning starter now: 17 of his 20 starts this year have been for 5+ innings, although 10 out of 20 were for 6+ innings. But, outside of aces, that's not so strange. The trend is for most non-elite pitchers to go 5-6 innings as teams position their bullpens to provide 3-4 innings of fireballing. When he's pitching, CC has been above average (post-alcoholism) and even with aging, I'm not sure why he wouldn't be a 100-ERA+ pitcher next year (he's at 116 ERA+ this season). So the big risk is whether one can project even 160 IP next year, given the small and large injuries that will befall a 37-year-old, heavyset pitcher. That's very difficult to project. I'd point out that Sabathia's been pretty durable in his career, as 2014 is the only MLB season where he pitched fewer than 100 innings. But one cannot ignore the fact that he's on pace for maybe 140 IP this season, down from 179 IP in 2016, and in his late 30s. To be conservative, I would only expect 130 IP in 2018 and 110 IP in 2019 (when I'm hoping he'd be a very good 5th starter), and thus somewhere around a cumulative 3.3-3.6 WAR over those two years.

With teams paying around $8M or $9M per WAR (is that right?), I'd be happy if the Yankees re-signed him for something like 2/28. I don't think there'd be an undue amount of risk in that, and I think that would still allow the Yankees to pursue a $30M+/year free agent if that's their plan. Lastly, I wouldn't mind seeing CC get his 3,000th strikeout as a Yankee. Of course, I suspect Sabathia will get more than 2/28 and I'm not sure how much higher I'd want the team to go (if it hurt their chances of making other moves). But to me, 2/28 seems like a reasonable starting point.
   18. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 21, 2017 at 12:54 PM (#5517924)
Brett Anderson 11mil,

Twas a very incentive laden contract, and I doubt he met any of them. I think he got $3-3.5mil guaranteed.
   19. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 21, 2017 at 01:41 PM (#5517957)
Sabathia has now recorded more strikeouts than any other lefthander in AL history. This sounds pretty impressive, until you learn that the man whose record he broke was....


...the legendary Mickey Lolich.


I think you are selling Lolich a bit short. He had a pretty good 7-8 year run. He is 18th overall in career strikeouts. Randy Johnson split his time between leagues, or of course he would lead.
   20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 21, 2017 at 02:13 PM (#5517973)
How Sabathia finishes the season could still have a big effect on his next contract - as TFA indicates, he's 1 start past thinking he was going to be forced to retire because of the pain from pitching. However, I strongly suspect any team interested in more than a 1-year deal will structure it as an option, perhaps vesting based on innings pitched. Paying big bucks and hoping for better than replacement level performance is usually a mistake for older, struggling, injured players.
   21. Srul Itza Posted: August 21, 2017 at 02:15 PM (#5517976)
For anyone old enough to remember the 68 Series, he IS the legendary Mickey Lolich.
   22. You're a clown, RMc! I'm tired of it! Posted: August 21, 2017 at 07:51 PM (#5518168)
Last man to win three games in one World Series.
   23. Blastin Posted: August 21, 2017 at 08:12 PM (#5518170)
I'm just happy he turned his life around. He seems like a good guy and I'm glad for him, even if I weren't an NYY fan.
   24. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: August 21, 2017 at 08:19 PM (#5518171)
Last man to win three games in one World Series.

well...Randy Johnson had 3 in 2001 but one was in relief
   25. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 21, 2017 at 09:23 PM (#5518204)
[24] A win in relief is still a win. If you want to specify otherwise, you should say "win three starts."
   26. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: August 21, 2017 at 10:19 PM (#5518230)
Regarding a contract for Sabathia, I have to agree with CFB. It's worth pointing out Rich Hill, at the time he earned that contract with the Dodgers, had a grand total of 94 starts and had thrown 610 IP. in his career The idea that Sabathia, who has managed 79 and 455 from the point where his career looked completely over, would be considered more risky, and thus less deserving of a contract, strikes me as strange.

Why are people comparing CC to Rich Hill? Hill provided ace potential (with a ton of risk) to a team historically well-prepared to pay for upside. Just as the vast majority of teams couldn't justify spending so much on a pitcher as risky as Hill, a team like the Dodgers wouldn't be interested in giving someone with CC's age and ceiling any sort of a long-term deal. I'm not sure I could think of a worse SP to look to for an idea of what Sabathia's market value is.

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