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Friday, November 11, 2011

Charley Walters: Ex-Minnesota Twin Tony Oliva getting Hall of Fame push

Red Sox Knox just gagged on a rolled up schwall of Yaz bread.

Tony Oliva has some big hitters lobbying for his election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y.

“I was talking to Gene Michael the other day, and I told him there was one guy who really deserves to be in the hall of fame,” former Twins pitcher Dean Chance said Wednesday. “Tony Oliva’s the best hitter I ever pitched against. And Denny McLain says the same thing, that Oliva is the best left-handed hitter he ever faced. McLain said Oliva was a much better hitter than (hall of famer) Carl Yastrzemski.”

...Michael, the former New York Yankees infielder and manager, is among committee members.

“All those guys deserve to be in the hall of fame, but the one guy who really deserves it, talent-wise, is Tony Oliva,” Chance said.

Chance, who pitched for 11 seasons and was a two-time 20-game winner, was Oliva’s teammate with the Twins for three seasons (1967-69).

“The poor guy - when he got a hit, he had to get a legitimate hit to get on base because of that bad knee,” Chance said.

Repoz Posted: November 11, 2011 at 07:55 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: hall of fame, history, twins

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1. DL from MN Posted: November 11, 2011 at 08:57 PM (#3991311)

HoVG. It would be another "Jim Rice" type pick and we don't need any more of them.

2. Morty Causa Posted: November 11, 2011 at 09:26 PM (#3991345)

I was surprised that dWAR has Oliva as a good fielder. If I'm reading the thing right. If Oliva, why not Rico Carty, or Rocky Colovito or Boog Powell, or Norm Cash. Or, again, Maris, who has about the same value in a lot less time, plus two MVPs and a major signature accomplishment to go with that.

3. Bruce Markusen Posted: November 11, 2011 at 10:42 PM (#3991417)

In the early part of his career, Oliva was a very good defensive outfielder. Once the injuries to his knees set in, he became a subpar defender and eventually became far better suited to DH duty.

4. Steve Treder Posted: November 11, 2011 at 10:50 PM (#3991426)

In the early part of his career, Oliva was a very good defensive outfielder.

He certainly was, frequently filling in at center field, as well as winning a Gold Glove as a right fielder in 1966. To consider Oliva comparable as a defender to the likes of Carty/Colavito/Powell etc. is hilariously wrong.

5. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot

Posted: November 11, 2011 at 10:52 PM (#3991429)

He didn't do steroids, he was a credit to his island, he didn't have the advantage of New York media exposure, he got injured while still young, he played in a low offense era, he won more batting titles in his first two years than anyone before or since, he led the league in hits his first three years---not even Ichiro did that.

Now that all these various and irrelevant talking points are out of the way, he's still only in the HoVG, and that's where he's going to stay.

6. DL from MN Posted: November 11, 2011 at 10:52 PM (#3991430)

Most of his support comes from fellow AL players who are probably unaware that the NL was much better than the AL during Oliva's career. A bit of this is big fish, small pond.

7. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: November 11, 2011 at 11:15 PM (#3991448)

His support comes from the fact that to this day people still under-value or otherwise ignore walks. It's the same reason Rice got in and the same reason Santo's been out for so long. .300 with power with 45 walks is treated as better than .290 with the same power and 90 walks.

That said I don't think Oliva is a god awful choice, roughly the same as Rice. Better than a selection like Cepeda (who again is in because of a mis-valuing of walks).

8. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: November 11, 2011 at 11:30 PM (#3991458)

According to some research I've done, Oliva had the nasty tendency to be at his best when it mattered least. He's a Garbage Time God.

9. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: November 12, 2011 at 12:16 AM (#3991476)

former Twins pitcher Dean Chance said Wednesday. “Tony Oliva’s the best hitter I ever pitched against.

OK, I know it's probably just empty platitudes, but Chance faced Yaz, Kaline, Mantle, Killebrew, Frank Robinson, Reggie Jackson, and Rod Carew. He also faced over the hill Eddie Mathews and Yogi Berra.

OK, it's probably because Oliva hit really, really well against him (.429/.500/.857), but it still sounds ridiculous, just like it would be ridiculous for Greg Maddux to say the toughest hitter he ever faced was Shawn Green.

10. Morty Causa Posted: November 12, 2011 at 12:18 AM (#3991477)

And he cavorted with Bo Belinsky. He am what am. Has Dean always been so willing to opine--or is this another case of Old Farts don't fade away....

11. Bruce Markusen Posted: November 12, 2011 at 01:42 AM (#3991526)

Steve, what do you remember about Oliva's arm? I remember him as having a plus arm, but that might be underestimating him.

P.S. I'll always have good thoughts of Oliva for coming to the SABR Hall of Fame meeting back in the late 1990s. One of the SABR guys asked him earlier that day if he would show up. He said he would, and he did.

12. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2011 at 03:06 AM (#3991575)

OK, I know it's probably just empty platitudes, but Chance faced Yaz, Kaline, Mantle, Killebrew, Frank Robinson, Reggie Jackson, and Rod Carew. He also faced over the hill Eddie Mathews and Yogi Berra.

Based on many such statements over the years, it seems what pitchers remember most are hits. I'm sure they remember the guy they gave up 10 HR to but mainly they measure "hitter" by BA.

From 1964 to 71, Oliva was top 3 in the AL 7 times (#8 the other year) and led the AL in hits 5 times.

Now, from 64 to 71 (well 66 to 71), Robinson was the genuine terror of the AL -- 300/401/543, 169 OPS+. Killebrew and Howard were a distant 2/3 at 156/155 but both were relatively low average hitters. By BA, Oliva was the class of the AL with his 313 (Robinson the only other to average 300). Oliva had a 140 OPS+ which is behind Boog, Kaline and Yaz but his BA was 40, 25 and 20 points ahead of those guys which also meant he had the highest SLG (but lowest ISO).

Especially for a RHP like Chance I can see how Oliva would seem (and might have been) the best ... next to Robinson.

13. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot

Posted: November 12, 2011 at 04:17 AM (#3991633)

former Twins pitcher Dean Chance said Wednesday. “Tony Oliva’s the best hitter I ever pitched against.

OK, I know it's probably just empty platitudes, but Chance faced Yaz, Kaline, Mantle, Killebrew, Frank Robinson, Reggie Jackson, and Rod Carew. He also faced over the hill Eddie Mathews and Yogi Berra.

Based on many such statements over the years, it seems what pitchers remember most are hits. I'm sure they remember the guy they gave up 10 HR to but mainly they measure "hitter" by BA.

From 1964 to 71, Oliva was top 3 in the AL 7 times (#8 the other year) and led the AL in hits 5 times.

That's exactly right. When we (meaning most of us on BTF) think of "best hitters", we're mentally calculating the whole package, which includes walks and extra base hits, key components of OPS and OPS+. But oftentimes when pitchers think of "best hitters", they call to mind those batters who put the ball in play safely a higher percentage of the time than anyone else, and also the ones who are the toughest to strike out. They'll equate "best" with "toughest to get out", or "fewest holes in their swings", not "who produces the most runs". Of course by any objective standard they're wrong, but in a way it's simply because they're using a different dictionary, or even speaking a different language.

14. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2011 at 05:09 AM (#3991668)

And a minor nit. Carew didn't become Carew until 69. Chance was his teammate and 69 was Chance's last good year. He pitched about 240 more not very good innings and, even if Carew spanked him (didn't check), Chance probably assigns that to his decline. OK, I'll check. As it turns out, Chance faced Carew only 5 times and Carew went 0 for 5.

15. Nathan Kunkel Posted: November 12, 2011 at 10:59 AM (#3991725)

"but the one guy who really deserves it, talent-wise, is Tony Oliva"

and if 'talent-wise' was the determining factor, it would be the Hall of the Very Enormous Size

16. Squash Posted: November 12, 2011 at 11:09 AM (#3991730)

That's exactly right. When we (meaning most of us on BTF) think of "best hitters", we're mentally calculating the whole package, which includes walks and extra base hits, key components of OPS and OPS+. But oftentimes when pitchers think of "best hitters", they call to mind those batters who put the ball in play safely a higher percentage of the time than anyone else, and also the ones who are the toughest to strike out. They'll equate "best" with "toughest to get out", or "fewest holes in their swings", not "who produces the most runs". Of course by any objective standard they're wrong, but in a way it's simply because they're using a different dictionary, or even speaking a different language.

I think generally, when a pitcher gives up a walk they think "my fault". When they give up a hit it's "his fault". I didn't pitch in the major leagues, but that's certainly the way I felt.

17. ray james Posted: November 12, 2011 at 03:03 PM (#3991751)

HoVG. It would be another "Jim Rice" type pick and we don't need any more of them.

Poor comp. Oliva was a certain HoF talent whose career trajectory was derailed by knee injuries. If you're really, really into peak, he'd be an OK candidate.

18. ray james Posted: November 12, 2011 at 03:09 PM (#3991753)

and if 'talent-wise' was the determining factor, it would be the Hall of the Very Enormous Size

I don't know. If talent were the sole consideration, you could throw out a lot of guys too. It would all depend on how big or small you wanted the hall to be.

19. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: November 12, 2011 at 03:51 PM (#3991769)

If you're really, really into peak, he'd be an OK candidate.

Even then, I don't quite see it. He had 4 really good seasons, 64-66 and 71. WAR's of 7.4, 6.6, 6.0, 5.9. Some similar players:

Dave Parker - 7.1, 6.9, 6.7, 5.6
Dale Murphy - 7.5, 7.2, 7.1, 6.3
Reggie Smith - 6.3, 6.0, 5.6, 5.5
Keith Hernandez - 7.2, 6.8, 6.5, 5.6
Ken Boyer- 7.8, 6.2, 6.2, 5.8
Cesar Cedeno - 8.2, 7.6, 6.0, 5.6
Lance Berkman - 6.7, 6.4, 6.2, 6.1
Rocky Colavito - 7.9, 6.7, 5.8, 5.4
Buddy Bell - 6.9, 6.2, 6.1, 6.0

And that's not counting clearly superior players who are unlikely to make the Hall (players with higher and/or longer peaks) like Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Carlos Beltran, Todd Helton, Sal Bando, Dick Allen, Jim Wynn, Bobby Grich,

If you want a guy with a good peak only case, how about Jason Giambi? Peak WARs of 10.3, 8.7, 7.3, 6.0.

Oliva's peak is just too ordinary for it to be a compelling, or even OK argument for him to be singled out for the honor.

20. Something Other Posted: November 15, 2011 at 02:22 AM (#3993635)

And that's not counting clearly superior players who are unlikely to make the Hall (players with higher and/or longer peaks) like Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Carlos Beltran, Todd Helton, Sal Bando, Dick Allen, Jim Wynn, Bobby Grich,

The only reason I'd tend to write off Beltran is because of his desire to play the OF, which is going to shorten his career, probably by a lot. If he was willing to DH he could probably hit until he was 40 and make it into the Hall after a decade's eligibility by a combination of being a hell of a CFer for most of his career, a fine hitter for a long time who reached some baby milestones (2500 hits, 1500 RBIs, 1500 runs, 300 SBs, and juust maybe 400 HR), and his postseason numbers.

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Friday, November 11, 2011

Charley Walters: Ex-Minnesota Twin Tony Oliva getting Hall of Fame push

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