Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Chartier, Harris & Harris: Majorly Perfect Baseball

Hey, get off your computers and go out and watch a perfect game or two!

For our analysis, let’s pretend that Yogi was wrong—that is, let’s say that the games are independent of one another (what happens in one game has no effect on what happens in other games).

Now, what probability should we assign to pitching a perfect game? Pitcher David Cone pitched a perfect game in 1999. There have been approximately 32,000 games played since that game in 1999, and seven of them have been perfect games. So it seems reasonable that we can think of the probability of a perfect game as p = 7/32000 (or about 0.00022). Using this value of p, we can calculate that the probability of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season is around 0.017. That is, there is a 1.7 percent chance of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season (under our assumptions). Pretty special, we’d say!

Each major league regular season includes n = 2430 games (over all teams). Using n = 2430 and p=.00022, we can compute the expected number of perfect games in a single season to be np = (2430)(.00022) = .5346. This would translate to about one perfect game every two seasons. This number is a bit high, since, on average, there has been one perfect game every five years since 1900.

Perhaps there is a reason for this, though. Maybe the game is evolving in an interesting way. If the 2013 season is a multiple perfect game season, it will be interesting indeed.

Repoz Posted: March 30, 2013 at 07:23 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. jdennis Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4399809)
there are just more perfect games each year because there are more teams and more games played each year. i mean, you can just get the data from bbref for the whole existence of mlb from 1871 and get the real percentage. three guys and an editor thought this was print-worthy?
   2. The District Attorney Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:51 PM (#4399831)
Also because of more strikeouts, right?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
phredbird
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogThe Dome: 15 years ago Seattle blew up a giant, concrete eyesore full of memories.
(29 - 2:09am, Mar 29)
Last: boteman

NewsblogGrantland: 2015 AL East Preview
(47 - 2:08am, Mar 29)
Last: Curse of the Andino

NewsblogJason Heyward’s Ability Seems Boundless. Soon, So May His Contract.
(47 - 1:54am, Mar 29)
Last: Dr. Vaux

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - March 2015
(1415 - 1:52am, Mar 29)
Last: Booey

Newsblog5 trades that make sense before Opening Day | MLB.com
(6 - 1:46am, Mar 29)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogSadly, We've Lost Another Primate
(45 - 1:08am, Mar 29)
Last: Andere Richtingen

NewsblogOT: Soccer March 2015
(448 - 12:28am, Mar 29)
Last: Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun)

NewsblogBoras: Cubs using business, not baseball, if Bryant stays in minors - CBSSports.com
(210 - 11:56pm, Mar 28)
Last: puck

NewsblogChicago Cubs Kris Bryant and the service-time game | FOX Sports
(32 - 11:56pm, Mar 28)
Last: Jim Furtado

NewsblogAstros to introduce drool-inducing Chicken & Waffle Cone
(14 - 11:49pm, Mar 28)
Last: Meatwad misses Vincennes

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1903 Ballot
(6 - 11:20pm, Mar 28)
Last: MrC.

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 3-27-2015
(9 - 11:13pm, Mar 28)
Last: Der-K is at half whelm.

NewsblogBBTF 2015 Shooty Memorial Softball Meet-up!
(26 - 8:32pm, Mar 28)
Last: Greg K

NewsblogNY Post: Sherman: Commish, Boras And Cubs: Shut Up About Hopeless Phenom Debate
(8 - 7:18pm, Mar 28)
Last: cercopithecus aethiops

Jim's Lab NotesRecent Updates and Turning off Advertisements
(55 - 5:50pm, Mar 28)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

Page rendered in 0.1501 seconds
48 querie(s) executed