Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Chartier, Harris & Harris: Majorly Perfect Baseball

Hey, get off your computers and go out and watch a perfect game or two!

For our analysis, let’s pretend that Yogi was wrong—that is, let’s say that the games are independent of one another (what happens in one game has no effect on what happens in other games).

Now, what probability should we assign to pitching a perfect game? Pitcher David Cone pitched a perfect game in 1999. There have been approximately 32,000 games played since that game in 1999, and seven of them have been perfect games. So it seems reasonable that we can think of the probability of a perfect game as p = 7/32000 (or about 0.00022). Using this value of p, we can calculate that the probability of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season is around 0.017. That is, there is a 1.7 percent chance of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season (under our assumptions). Pretty special, we’d say!

Each major league regular season includes n = 2430 games (over all teams). Using n = 2430 and p=.00022, we can compute the expected number of perfect games in a single season to be np = (2430)(.00022) = .5346. This would translate to about one perfect game every two seasons. This number is a bit high, since, on average, there has been one perfect game every five years since 1900.

Perhaps there is a reason for this, though. Maybe the game is evolving in an interesting way. If the 2013 season is a multiple perfect game season, it will be interesting indeed.

Repoz Posted: March 30, 2013 at 07:23 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. jdennis Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4399809)
there are just more perfect games each year because there are more teams and more games played each year. i mean, you can just get the data from bbref for the whole existence of mlb from 1871 and get the real percentage. three guys and an editor thought this was print-worthy?
   2. The District Attorney Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:51 PM (#4399831)
Also because of more strikeouts, right?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
greenback wears sandals on his head
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 20 November 2017: Sheriff’s official suspended 10 days over Cubs World Series sneak-in
(718 - 5:07pm, Nov 22)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogJoe Morgan Wants To Keep Steroid Cheats Out Of Baseball Hall Of Fame | MLB | NESN.com
(161 - 5:05pm, Nov 22)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogOT - November* 2017 College Football thread
(195 - 4:40pm, Nov 22)
Last: TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-22-2017
(7 - 4:27pm, Nov 22)
Last: catomi01

NewsblogFinding the best spot for Giancarlo Stanton
(10 - 4:06pm, Nov 22)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogA Discussion of WAR Wherein I Ardently Attempt to Avoid any WAR-Related Puns | Sports-Reference.com
(38 - 3:34pm, Nov 22)
Last: K-BAR, J-BAR (trhn)

NewsblogOT - 2017 NFL thread
(177 - 3:05pm, Nov 22)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogWhat's next for Maitan and other former Braves | MLB.com
(9 - 2:41pm, Nov 22)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogSources: MLB hammers Atlanta Braves, declaring 12 minor league players free agents
(81 - 2:35pm, Nov 22)
Last: Khrushin it bro

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(1502 - 1:19pm, Nov 22)
Last: don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all

NewsblogProspectus Feature: Bill James vs. The Noise - Baseball Prospectus
(11 - 11:58am, Nov 22)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Hall of Merit2018 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(250 - 11:52am, Nov 22)
Last: Mike Emeigh

NewsblogShohei Ohtani MLB posting deal reached | MLB.com
(3 - 11:30am, Nov 22)
Last: sotapop

NewsblogOT: Winter Soccer Thread
(213 - 10:36am, Nov 22)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

NewsblogTaking Back the Ballparks - Phillies Voting Thread
(15 - 9:41am, Nov 22)
Last: Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant

Page rendered in 0.2589 seconds
47 querie(s) executed