Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Chartier, Harris & Harris: Majorly Perfect Baseball

Hey, get off your computers and go out and watch a perfect game or two!

For our analysis, let’s pretend that Yogi was wrong—that is, let’s say that the games are independent of one another (what happens in one game has no effect on what happens in other games).

Now, what probability should we assign to pitching a perfect game? Pitcher David Cone pitched a perfect game in 1999. There have been approximately 32,000 games played since that game in 1999, and seven of them have been perfect games. So it seems reasonable that we can think of the probability of a perfect game as p = 7/32000 (or about 0.00022). Using this value of p, we can calculate that the probability of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season is around 0.017. That is, there is a 1.7 percent chance of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season (under our assumptions). Pretty special, we’d say!

Each major league regular season includes n = 2430 games (over all teams). Using n = 2430 and p=.00022, we can compute the expected number of perfect games in a single season to be np = (2430)(.00022) = .5346. This would translate to about one perfect game every two seasons. This number is a bit high, since, on average, there has been one perfect game every five years since 1900.

Perhaps there is a reason for this, though. Maybe the game is evolving in an interesting way. If the 2013 season is a multiple perfect game season, it will be interesting indeed.

Repoz Posted: March 30, 2013 at 07:23 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. jdennis Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4399809)
there are just more perfect games each year because there are more teams and more games played each year. i mean, you can just get the data from bbref for the whole existence of mlb from 1871 and get the real percentage. three guys and an editor thought this was print-worthy?
   2. The District Attorney Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:51 PM (#4399831)
Also because of more strikeouts, right?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BFFB
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogEric Chavez Retires
(32 - 5:00am, Jul 31)
Last: shoewizard

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread- July 2014
(1035 - 4:48am, Jul 31)
Last: stevegamer

NewsblogWhy the Mets Are Right to Save the New York State Pavilion
(1 - 4:40am, Jul 31)
Last: Bhaakon

NewsblogCameron: Why a July 31 trade deadline just doesn’t make sense anymore
(15 - 4:39am, Jul 31)
Last: Swedish Chef

NewsblogJULY 31 2014 OMNICHATTER/TRADE DEADLINE CHATTER
(3 - 4:12am, Jul 31)
Last: Davo Dozier

NewsblogHoward: David Ortiz shaping up to become first steroid era Teflon slugger
(58 - 4:10am, Jul 31)
Last: Wahoo Sam

NewsblogCubs Acquire Felix Doubront
(48 - 2:57am, Jul 31)
Last: Norcan

NewsblogVICE: Baseball Erotica #1: John Smoltz and Tom Glavine
(11 - 2:19am, Jul 31)
Last: Petunia inquires about ponies

NewsblogSOE: Minor League Manhood - A first-hand account of masculine sports culture run amok.
(159 - 2:08am, Jul 31)
Last: Petunia inquires about ponies

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread July, 2014
(530 - 2:03am, Jul 31)
Last: Swedish Chef

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 7-30-2014
(45 - 1:30am, Jul 31)
Last: CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck

NewsblogRed Sox trade rumors: 'Very good chance' John Lackey and Jon Lester are traded - Over the Monster
(59 - 1:10am, Jul 31)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogPosnanski: Hey, Rube: Phillies pay dearly for Amaro’s misguided loyalty
(23 - 1:04am, Jul 31)
Last: Ray (RDP)

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1957 Discussion
(15 - 12:19am, Jul 31)
Last: MrC

NewsblogPosnanski: Four theories about Hall of Fame voting changes
(28 - 11:50pm, Jul 30)
Last: Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams)

Page rendered in 0.0973 seconds
52 querie(s) executed