Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Chartier, Harris & Harris: Majorly Perfect Baseball

Hey, get off your computers and go out and watch a perfect game or two!

For our analysis, let’s pretend that Yogi was wrong—that is, let’s say that the games are independent of one another (what happens in one game has no effect on what happens in other games).

Now, what probability should we assign to pitching a perfect game? Pitcher David Cone pitched a perfect game in 1999. There have been approximately 32,000 games played since that game in 1999, and seven of them have been perfect games. So it seems reasonable that we can think of the probability of a perfect game as p = 7/32000 (or about 0.00022). Using this value of p, we can calculate that the probability of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season is around 0.017. That is, there is a 1.7 percent chance of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season (under our assumptions). Pretty special, we’d say!

Each major league regular season includes n = 2430 games (over all teams). Using n = 2430 and p=.00022, we can compute the expected number of perfect games in a single season to be np = (2430)(.00022) = .5346. This would translate to about one perfect game every two seasons. This number is a bit high, since, on average, there has been one perfect game every five years since 1900.

Perhaps there is a reason for this, though. Maybe the game is evolving in an interesting way. If the 2013 season is a multiple perfect game season, it will be interesting indeed.

Repoz Posted: March 30, 2013 at 07:23 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. jdennis Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4399809)
there are just more perfect games each year because there are more teams and more games played each year. i mean, you can just get the data from bbref for the whole existence of mlb from 1871 and get the real percentage. three guys and an editor thought this was print-worthy?
   2. The District Attorney Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:51 PM (#4399831)
Also because of more strikeouts, right?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dingbat_Charlie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 20 Feb. 2017: Baseball in a Time of Politics
(1787 - 7:42am, Feb 26)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogMets’ Duda, Who Had Back Trouble in 2016, Is Now Bothered by His Hips - The New York Times
(1 - 7:39am, Feb 26)
Last: Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige

NewsblogAre statheads “pro ownership?”
(35 - 7:39am, Feb 26)
Last: jmp

NewsblogOT - December 2016 NBA thread
(2548 - 1:37am, Feb 26)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 2001 Ballot
(3 - 12:46am, Feb 26)
Last: OCF

Hall of MeritWillie Davis
(38 - 12:36am, Feb 26)
Last: OCF

NewsblogCubs Addison Russell ready for power breakout | MLB.com
(9 - 11:15pm, Feb 25)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

NewsblogTwins' Byron Buxton remembers the fun part of baseball
(2 - 10:54pm, Feb 25)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogPosnanski | A Baseball Challenge!
(53 - 10:41pm, Feb 25)
Last: BDC

NewsblogInside Baseball with Jon Heyman: Final offseason grades
(28 - 9:58pm, Feb 25)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogMLB views Las Vegas as 'viable market,' Rob Manfred says
(88 - 9:37pm, Feb 25)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogMike Piazza Learns How to Be an Owner. Of a Soccer Team. In Italy.
(181 - 8:29pm, Feb 25)
Last: sardonic

NewsblogRio Ruiz has dropped 30 pounds in 16 months, boosted his stock
(1 - 7:50pm, Feb 25)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogDon Mattingly thinks pace of play can be improved by changing views on strikeouts
(70 - 6:34pm, Feb 25)
Last: Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein

Hall of Merit2018 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(144 - 5:39pm, Feb 25)
Last: Bleed the Freak

Page rendered in 0.1414 seconds
47 querie(s) executed