Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Chartier, Harris & Harris: Majorly Perfect Baseball

Hey, get off your computers and go out and watch a perfect game or two!

For our analysis, let’s pretend that Yogi was wrong—that is, let’s say that the games are independent of one another (what happens in one game has no effect on what happens in other games).

Now, what probability should we assign to pitching a perfect game? Pitcher David Cone pitched a perfect game in 1999. There have been approximately 32,000 games played since that game in 1999, and seven of them have been perfect games. So it seems reasonable that we can think of the probability of a perfect game as p = 7/32000 (or about 0.00022). Using this value of p, we can calculate that the probability of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season is around 0.017. That is, there is a 1.7 percent chance of seeing three or more perfect games in a single season (under our assumptions). Pretty special, we’d say!

Each major league regular season includes n = 2430 games (over all teams). Using n = 2430 and p=.00022, we can compute the expected number of perfect games in a single season to be np = (2430)(.00022) = .5346. This would translate to about one perfect game every two seasons. This number is a bit high, since, on average, there has been one perfect game every five years since 1900.

Perhaps there is a reason for this, though. Maybe the game is evolving in an interesting way. If the 2013 season is a multiple perfect game season, it will be interesting indeed.

Repoz Posted: March 30, 2013 at 07:23 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. jdennis Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4399809)
there are just more perfect games each year because there are more teams and more games played each year. i mean, you can just get the data from bbref for the whole existence of mlb from 1871 and get the real percentage. three guys and an editor thought this was print-worthy?
   2. The District Attorney Posted: March 30, 2013 at 05:51 PM (#4399831)
Also because of more strikeouts, right?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Chicago Joe
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Sox TherapyMaking Ups of Downs
(32 - 1:22am, Sep 26)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogJose Fernandez Dies In Boating Accident - MLB Trade Rumors
(154 - 1:18am, Sep 26)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogTheo Epstein has Cubs looking like a winner
(7 - 1:07am, Sep 26)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogOTP 2016 Sep 19 - Race for the White House: The Greatest Circus on Earth
(1578 - 1:04am, Sep 26)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogFire Joe Morgan and the Moneyball revolution.
(13 - 12:57am, Sep 26)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogOT: August 2016 Soccer Thread
(579 - 12:33am, Sep 26)
Last: AuntBea

NewsblogMariners catcher Steve Clevenger tweets protesters should be treated 'like animals'
(297 - 12:25am, Sep 26)
Last: baxter

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-25-16
(97 - 11:37pm, Sep 25)
Last: Bote Man makes baseball fun again

NewsblogWHAT A PLAY! UTLEY GETS 'PRETTY LUCKY' WITH NO-LOOK THROW
(22 - 11:29pm, Sep 25)
Last: Wahoo Sam

NewsblogYankees’ half-measure failure forces grand plan into focus | New York Post
(9 - 11:15pm, Sep 25)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogWhen Scully is telling a story, it's only fair that the baseballs head foul - LA Times
(1 - 10:54pm, Sep 25)
Last: Rough Carrigan

NewsblogAfter 67 years of greatness, Vin Scully just wants to be remembered as a good man.
(2 - 10:31pm, Sep 25)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

Gonfalon CubsProjected Playoff Roster
(54 - 10:10pm, Sep 25)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogCarlos Beltran might struggle to make the Hall of Fame
(122 - 8:47pm, Sep 25)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT - September 2016 College Football thread
(360 - 7:15pm, Sep 25)
Last: Spivey

Page rendered in 0.1720 seconds
47 querie(s) executed