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Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Chase Headley traded to New York Yankees from San Diego Padres - ESPN New York

The New York Yankees have acquired third baseman Chase Headley in a trade Tuesday with the San Diego Padres.

The Yankees dealt infielder Yangervis Solarte and minor league pitcher Rafael De Paula to San Diego in exchange for Headley, who could boost New York’s struggling lineup.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:33 PM | 141 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: padres, trades, yankees

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   1. SG Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:38 PM (#4755778)
Chase Headley has struggled at the plate this season but could provide an offensive boost for the Yankees.


Hal Chase could provide an offensive boost for this Yankee team and he's been dead for 67 years.
   2. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:39 PM (#4755779)
Solarte and De Paula are better than extending Headley a qualifying offer?
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:41 PM (#4755780)
I don't get this at all for exactly what #2 says. Why not offer him a QO and get a draft pick? At the very worst, he accepts and hopefully has a better year next year, increasing his trade value.

This is a bunch of nothing, plus they're paying the Yanks $1 million. Did the Padres rehire Kevin Towers?
   4. SG Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:43 PM (#4755785)
I'm guessing that Headley would have learned from the lessons of Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew and would have taken the qualifying offer and the Padres don't want to pay it.
   5. rconn23 Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:46 PM (#4755786)
Not sure if Headley will help the offense, but he can only be a plus defensively. That team has the most unwatchable infield defense in baseball.
   6. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:46 PM (#4755787)
Then the Padres are deeply stupid. They won't be able to get 2-3 WAR for $15MM anywhere else in the free agent market.
   7. zonk Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:47 PM (#4755788)
Boy, I don't know... 14-15 mil for a guy based on what now looks like a completely and totally out of character age 28 season two years ago? I know I'm underplaying park effects here - but Headley would have been an absolute moron to turn down a QO and I personally think the Padres would be extremely foolish to offer one.

I don't know what happened to him between 2011 and 2012 and then what's happened to him since 2012... but beyond a cheap reclamation project, I'd have zero interest in acquiring him.

I don't think I'd pay the Yankees to take him - just out of principle - but aside from that, meh...
   8. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:47 PM (#4755790)
So the Yankees have managed to trade the Yangervis Solarte magic pixie dust for Chase Headley.

Good move, although there's a decent chance Headley is done.

For whatever it's worth in the ARod mess, Headley's contract is up after this year.
   9. zonk Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4755791)
They won't be able to get 2-3 WAR for $15MM anywhere else in the free agent market.


If half that is gonna come from the glove, I think you can....
   10. madvillain Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:00 PM (#4755801)
The Yankees are also apparently inquiring about John Danks. As a White Sox fan all I can say is: please, take him! Dude is a 1 WAR pitcher at best after the capsule tear. How any MLB club could look at him and think he's worth trading for is beyond me, but the Yankees are obviously desperate to continue the charade.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:03 PM (#4755803)
The Yankees are also apparently inquiring about John Danks. As a White Sox fan all I can say is: please, take him! Dude is a 1 WAR pitcher at best after the capsule tear. How any MLB club could look at him and think he's worth trading for is beyond me, but the Yankees are obviously desperate to continue the charade.

Really depends on how much $$$ the ChiSox are sending with Mr. Danks. At $15M per, he's a disaster. At $5M per, he's a decent risk.

There would likely be very little actual talent headed to Chicago.
   12. formerly dp Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:09 PM (#4755807)
I'm surprised they couldn't get a little more for him-- the Jays could use a 3B as well (until Lawrie comes back, and even then, they could use the latter at 2B). Probably not where they wanted to spend money/talent though...
   13. Captain Supporter Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:09 PM (#4755810)
From a Yankee fan's perspective, this is reasonably harmless but unexciting. It is potentially both and offensive and defensive upgrade over what they have now, but I don't find the need for a rental to be compelling. De Paula does have a live arm, but his performance to date is not compelling.

It does potentially give them somewhat of an inside track to try to keep him if they decide to cut ties with A-Rod. The best thing that could happen is that A-rod is physically unable to perform, which would both allow some form of insurance payout and eliminate a three ring circus. They could then spend some money on Headley, and possibly would be buying low.

   14. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4755813)
The best thing that could happen is that A-rod is physically unable to perform,


Extremely doubtful. He was able to play when allowed back on the field last year, with only the hamstring slowing him down (and he'd have taken a couple weeks to rest that were it not for the fact that the Yankees were nominally in the race).
   15. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4755814)
Solarte isn't "pixie dust"--he's torn up the minor leagues for the past 3-4 years, and then put up a 100 OPS+ this year facing Major League pitching for the first time. He can play second, third, and shortstop (in a pinch). He's a valuable player with upside.

I said in a different thread, very perplexed by the Yankees on this transaction. I guess it's a "win-now" move, but I really don't see much reason to suppose Chase Headley will be better for the rest of 2014 than Solarte will.
   16. cheng Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:13 PM (#4755815)
The Padres also save $2.8m the rest of the season (3.8 owed to Headley for the remainder of 2014, 1 sent to the Yankees). Most of us look at baseball owners pocketing cash and think we would never value money over winning, but then most of us will never be rich enough to own a baseball team. These two things are not entirely unrelated.
   17. Greg K Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:18 PM (#4755820)
I don't know if I'd call hitting .280/.330/.400 in the PCL over two years tearing it up.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:18 PM (#4755822)
Solarte isn't "pixie dust"--he's torn up the minor leagues for the past 3-4 years, and then put up a 100 OPS+ this year facing Major League pitching for the first time. He can play second, third, and shortstop (in a pinch). He's a valuable player with upside.

Solarte's last 2 seasons in AAA were a 89 and 93 wRC+. How is that tearing up the minor leagues? He had a great AA season in 2011, but c'mon now.
   19. Greg K Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4755825)
Solarte's last 2 seasons in AAA were a 89 and 93 wRC+. How is that tearing up the minor leagues? He had a great AA season in 2011, but c'mon now.

Where do you get park/league adjusted numbers for the minors? I always need help adjusting for numbers down there.
   20. DKDC Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:22 PM (#4755827)
Solarte stinks. Headley stinks slightly less. The Yankees still stink.
   21. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:22 PM (#4755828)
Boy, I don't know... 14-15 mil for a guy based on what now looks like a completely and totally out of character age 28 season two years ago? I know I'm underplaying park effects here - but Headley would have been an absolute moron to turn down a QO and I personally think the Padres would be extremely foolish to offer one.

I don't know what happened to him between 2011 and 2012 and then what's happened to him since 2012... but beyond a cheap reclamation project, I'd have zero interest in acquiring him.


Good move, although there's a decent chance Headley is done


Chase Headley 
Years      Games  WAR   WAR
/150 
2014        77    1.3    2.7 
2013
-2014  218    5.1    3.7 
2010
-2014  653    18     4.1 


Chase's crappy season this year is still ranked 12th among third baseman this year by Fangraphs. Last year he was ranked 7th, year before 2nd, year before 14th, year before 6th.

He's 30 years old, he's been an above average third baseman every season including this for half a decade, if you take his big 2012 season away he's still a 3.5 WAR player the other 4 years.

You'all are crazy.
   22. villageidiom Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:27 PM (#4755831)
The best thing that could happen is that A-rod is physically unable to perform, which would both allow some form of insurance payout and eliminate a three ring circus.
Might as well say the best thing that could happen is that we're all magically transported back to 1996.
   23. zonk Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:29 PM (#4755833)

He's 30 years old, he's been an above average third baseman every season including this for half a decade, if you take his big 2012 season away he's still a 3.5 WAR player the other 4 years.

You'all are crazy.


I'm not sure I see a whole lot of daylight between Luis Valbuena and Chase Headley at this point, perhaps going back to last year....
   24. madvillain Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:30 PM (#4755835)
Really depends on how much $$$ the ChiSox are sending with Mr. Danks. At $15M per, he's a disaster. At $5M per, he's a decent risk.

There would likely be very little actual talent headed to Chicago.


Yep, just posted much the same at Soxtalk.com

Trade would be Danks + 6-8 million, plus maybe Gordon Beckham, for a couple of C+ level prospects.

I'd take it just to get rid of Danks' salary and Gordon.
   25. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:30 PM (#4755836)
Might as well say the best thing that could happen is that we're all magically transported back to 1996.


Hmmm ... I'd still be in my 30s.

Let me think about this for awhile.
   26. Captain Supporter Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:46 PM (#4755846)
As I said before, its only a rental so its not that exciting to me. But all you guys disparaging Headley's potential going forward are forgetting something. The object when signing free agents is to buy low. What makes it hard to do is that the reason a player's value is low at a given time is because he has not performed well for a while. So you have to be able to project that he can still play, and, if that is the case, you might actually have a bargain on your hands.

Assuming the organization likes him enough to extend him, the upside on this for the Yankees could be something like they experienced with Nick Swisher. With better defense.
   27. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:47 PM (#4755849)
Solarte isn't "pixie dust"--he's torn up the minor leagues for the past 3-4 years


No he hasn't
in 2013 he hit .276/.323/.403 in AAA, league was .270/.342/.414
in 2012 he hit .288/.340/.405 in AAA, league was .278/.345/.430

his big year was 2011 in the Eastern League, he hit .329/.367/.466, league was .259/.329/.395, he was 22nd in OPS, right behind him was the also 23 year old immortal Jordany Valdespin at .297/.341/.483

All told Solarte has nearly 3000 minor league PAs that say he's not an MLB hitter

and then put up a 100 OPS+ this year facing Major League pitching for the first time.

and the second time around the league MLB pitchers completely eviscerated him, Solarte putting up a 100 OPS+ his first 289 MLB PAs is analogous to when Frenchy put up a 126 in his.
   28. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:48 PM (#4755850)
Headley in NYY:

@DSzymborski

@mattymatty2000 ZiPS has him at 253/331/426, which they'll take I think.

   29. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 22, 2014 at 03:51 PM (#4755851)
Good move, although there's a decent chance Headley is done.


He was utterly godawful in April (.186/.250/.314), he's hot better since then
   30. deputydrew Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:01 PM (#4755857)
When were the first "trade Headley rumors/articles?" What kind of haul could he have returned after his big 2012 season?
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:13 PM (#4755860)
Where do you get park/league adjusted numbers for the minors? I always need help adjusting for numbers down there.

Fangraphs. They're on the main player page. For a guy with a long MLB career, you may have to click to unhide minor leagues.
   32. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:17 PM (#4755863)

When were the first "trade Headley rumors/articles?" What kind of haul could he have returned after his big 2012 season?


Morosi: Yanks can't afford to wait on A-Rod (originally dated December 2012).

What would be a fair return for Headley? Well, the Padres need starting pitchers and might be intrigued by a package built around Phil Hughes or David Phelps. Yes, the Yankees would be reluctant to part with their own starters, for obvious reasons. But they could sign a comparable arm, such as Edwin Jackson. There are more starting pitchers than third basemen available via free agency, so it would make sense for the Yankees to obtain the scarcer commodity in a trade.


From July 30, 2012, at MLBTR:

The Padres wanted Jake Arrieta and two prospects for Headley, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports (Twitter links)....

The Athletics won't trade starting pitching prospect Dan Straily in a Headley deal, tweets Peter Gammons of MLB Network


   33. King Berenger Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:20 PM (#4755866)
I'm a little surprised the consensus here is that this is something of a steal for the Yankees. As a Yankees fan, it's been frustrating seeing the Yankees the last few years perpetually fixate on "winning now" when they have a very mediocre and old team assembled. Somehow, SOMEBODY in the Yankees front office either seems to be under the illusion that the Yankees have a chance to make the playoffs, let alone go far in it, or they know that the Yankees are a very mediocre team but think that it's good business to perpetually have the Yankees just good enough to not seem terrible but never bother actually making them good. So there are these stupid trades that bring some veteran in for a few months and an ultimately meaningless playoff run on a painfully mediocre team at the expense of any actual future in the form of a non-decimated farm system. But the brass refuses to have a lousy year or two to regroup, so we're doomed to perpetual mediocrity. I'm almost rooting for the Yankees to lose by now so they'll have no excuse but to sell high for once.
   34. madvillain Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:24 PM (#4755868)
@33 -- blood from a stone. The White Sox, operating at about 1/2 of the payroll of NYC granted, made this mistake a half decade ago and are still paying for it today. At a certain point you don't have enough MLB talent on the roster or in the pipeline and all you do by "doubling down" is prolong the rebuilding process.

Nobody in NYC wants to give up on this season, but at a certain point, that's why Cashman gets paid -- to make hard decisions correctly. If he thinks a few patches are all this team needs to make a playoff run he should probably find new work, as it's not going to end well for him.
   35. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:25 PM (#4755872)
I'm a little surprised the consensus here is that this is something of a steal for the Yankees. As a Yankees fan, it's been frustrating seeing the Yankees the last few years perpetually fixate on "winning now" when they have a very mediocre and old team assembled. Somehow, SOMEBODY in the Yankees front office either seems to be under the illusion that the Yankees have a chance to make the playoffs, let alone go far in it, or they know that the Yankees are a very mediocre team but think that it's good business to perpetually have the Yankees just good enough to not seem terrible but never bother actually making them good. So there are these stupid trades that bring some veteran in for a few months and an ultimately meaningless playoff run on a painfully mediocre team at the expense of any actual future in the form of a non-decimated farm system. But the brass refuses to have a lousy year or two to regroup, so we're doomed to perpetual mediocrity. I'm almost rooting for the Yankees to lose by now so they'll have no excuse but to sell high for once.

I think the point is they basically gave up nothing. So why not roll the dice on catching Balt. and getting lucky?
   36. Greg K Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:26 PM (#4755873)
Fangraphs. They're on the main player page. For a guy with a long MLB career, you may have to click to unhide minor leagues.

Thanks!
This gives me a reason to go to fangraphs, which I haven't done in ages.
   37. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:29 PM (#4755874)
I'm not sure I see a whole lot of daylight between Luis Valbuena and Chase Headley at this point, perhaps going back to last year....


2014 - Valbueno 0.3 WAR, Headley 1.3 WAR
2013-2014 - Valbueno 1.9 WAR, Headley 5.1 WAR.

Do park effects and defense not exist in this thread?
   38. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:30 PM (#4755876)
Nobody in NYC wants to give up on this season, but at a certain point, that's why Cashman gets paid -- to make hard decisions correctly. If he thinks a few patches are all this team needs to make a playoff run he should probably find new work, as it's not going to end well for him.

There's nothing really tradeable on the roster. Who brings back a prospect haul? What's the point of giving up?

Last year was the year to give up, when Cano and Kuroda could have brought in some real talent in July. That's what I wanted, but alas, I got Soriano instead.
   39. Blastin Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:32 PM (#4755877)
Why don't the yankees have a chance to enter the playoffs? They're like two games behind Seattle. (And don't just point to run differential as if that is an ironclad predictor. They're a mediocre team chasing a couple other mediocre teams.)

No, they seem unlikely to win a whole lot. But stranger things have happened.

They're not going to tank enough to get a truly high pick, so they are going for international spending and undervalued players to go along with the bad contracts.
   40. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:35 PM (#4755879)
Somehow, SOMEBODY in the Yankees front office either seems to be under the illusion that the Yankees have a chance to make the playoffs


You seem to be under the illusion that the Yankees *don't* have a chance to make the playoffs. The Yankees don't have a chance to *do anything* in the playoffs, but the fact is that if they were simply *healthy*, they'd probably be running away with the division right now. As it is, they definitely have a chance to make the playoffs.

So there are these stupid trades that bring some veteran in for a few months and an ultimately meaningless playoff run on a painfully mediocre team at the expense of any actual future in the form of a non-decimated farm system.


They're giving up a 26-year-old infielder who had a great couple of months and has reverted back to non-prospect status, and a 23-year-old pitcher with a 4.15 ERA in A-ball. So they gave up a backup infielder and a guy you never will hear of again for a legitimate starting 3B.

These are *exactly* the kinds of trades the Yankees should be making, because they essentially cost nothing but money, and give them a shot to make the playoffs and maybe steal the division series if everything breaks right.
   41. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:36 PM (#4755881)

I'm a little surprised the consensus here is that this is something of a steal for the Yankees. As a Yankees fan, it's been frustrating seeing the Yankees the last few years perpetually fixate on "winning now" when they have a very mediocre and old team assembled. Somehow, SOMEBODY in the Yankees front office either seems to be under the illusion that the Yankees have a chance to make the playoffs, let alone go far in it, or they know that the Yankees are a very mediocre team but think that it's good business to perpetually have the Yankees just good enough to not seem terrible but never bother actually making them good. So there are these stupid trades that bring some veteran in for a few months and an ultimately meaningless playoff run on a painfully mediocre team at the expense of any actual future in the form of a non-decimated farm system. But the brass refuses to have a lousy year or two to regroup, so we're doomed to perpetual mediocrity. I'm almost rooting for the Yankees to lose by now so they'll have no excuse but to sell high for once.


I really don't see how this move affects the Yankees future. Both players they traded away were spare parts, they didn't give up a draft pick. Are you saying the Yanks should have a firesale?
   42. Blastin Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:38 PM (#4755883)
They're two games above five hundred. Clearly this season is the same as that of the Rangers.

Also: why a fan would ever root for his team to lose (I get not being as enthused, but rooting against?) is beyond me.
   43. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:41 PM (#4755886)
I really don't see how this move affects the Yankees future. Both players they traded away were spare parts, they didn't give up a draft pick. Are you saying the Yanks should have a firesale?


Oh my God, the Yankees are having a fire! Sale! Oh, the burning! It burns me! Evacuate all the schoolchildren! This isn't a fever! Can’t even see where the knob is!
   44. puck Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:46 PM (#4755889)
Where do you get park/league adjusted numbers for the minors? I always need help adjusting for numbers down there.

Fangraphs. They're on the main player page.


Yeah, good tip. I guess I haven't been to Fangraphs in a while.

Looking at Ben Paulsen, I'm surprised .380/.524 at Colorado Springs is a wRC+ of 132. I figured their park factor is like 120 or something but maybe in the PCL it's just another crazy park.
   45. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:50 PM (#4755892)
These are *exactly* the kinds of trades the Yankees should be making, because they essentially cost nothing but money, and give them a shot to make the playoffs and maybe steal the division series if everything breaks right.
The Yankees traded two guys they weren't using and didn't really see in their future plans, and got two guys who could help them right now and in the immediate future. Kinda sounds like exactly the trade every team should be making all the time. Even if these deals don't push the Yanks into the playoffs this year, Headley and McCarthy are only 30 and should be useful for at least a few more years, especially McCarthy. If you're a Yank fan, what's not to like?
   46. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:52 PM (#4755894)
These are *exactly* the kinds of trades the Yankees should be making, because they essentially cost nothing but money, and give them a shot to make the playoffs and maybe steal the division series if everything breaks right.


Plus the opportunity to give Headley a qualifying offer. He's likely worth it even now, but even if you think it's close reversion to the mean says odds are good that he finishes the season strong (or at least stronger) and makes it an easy offer. And if he tanks further, you cut him loose and only gave up next to nothing for the gamble on him. Solarte? LOL.

But most likely the Yanks give him the QO and he takes it, and then they control an above average MLB third baseman for only $14M or $15M on a low risk 1 year deal. They can trade him. Or they can trade A-Rod, and if Chase has a bounce back season in 2015 the QO nets a nice pick, or the Yanks extend him.

The pieces they gave up are unlikely to ever have any value approaching that..
   47. DKDC Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:54 PM (#4755895)
The Yankees can’t give Headley a QO, since he was traded midseason before free agency.
   48. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:55 PM (#4755897)
I don't know what happened to him between 2011 and 2012 and then what's happened to him since 2012... but beyond a cheap reclamation project, I'd have zero interest in acquiring him.


IIRC, he started having back problems.
   49. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:56 PM (#4755898)
Plus the opportunity to give Headley a qualifying offer.

Can't extend a QO to a player traded mid-season.

edit: Coke to DKDC
   50. Blastin Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:57 PM (#4755899)
Kinda sounds like exactly the trade every team should be making all the time.


Yeah. Seriously, how on earth is this bad? So he sucks for half a year then. Okay fine.
   51. King Berenger Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:58 PM (#4755900)
To be clear, I was speaking more generally and not necessarily in terms of the Headley trade - as #38 said, the same thing happened last year when they had the chance to trade Cano and/or Kuroda, and it's more of a "I wish they would change their approach" than "this specifically is a terrible trade." But also, instead of making this trade, they could also decide to deal someone like Robertson or Kuroda or (if only someone were willing to take them) Beltran or Roberts for some decent prospects. And if you're the Yankees, who cares about oh, whoop dee doo, making the second wildcard spot - you want an actually good team that has a good chance to win the series or, better yet, something that will last.

(An aside: Some people root for their teams to have that one magical season where they win it all. I think for the Yankees, it's a little different - you want 3 or 4 or 5 seasons in a row that are not magical but rather natural, crushing the opposition and establishing a formidable dynasty in the process, because that's how things should work.)

Blastin, rest assured, I'm not ACTUALLY rooting against the Yankees - I did say "almost rooting for the Yankees to lose" which is another way of saying, " for chrissake, what needs to happen for something them to get it through their heads?!" But that being said, what's there not to believe that this perpetually happens every year, the Yankees perpetually have a mediocre team and they perpetually get marginally better hitters than they had before (Soriano, Headley) while, though perhaps not giving away a whole lot, never getting anything of value long-term. The Yankees can afford to be perpetually mediocre, while most other teams would have no choice to be actually bad. I would be OK with the Yankees being actually bad for a year or two so that they can subsequently be better than mediocre.
   52. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:58 PM (#4755901)
But the brass refuses to have a lousy year or two to regroup, so we're doomed to perpetual mediocrity.


huh?
The Yankees?
A team that won 87 or more every year from 1996 to 2012 before slumping to 85 last year?
   53. Blastin Posted: July 22, 2014 at 04:59 PM (#4755902)
Soriano was a looooot older than Headley, though. This isn't quite the same thing.

I think there's hope on the farm and in int'l signings. And we'll have a younger SS/RF/3B within a couple years.

We could suck. Or we could not. This won't take us from "won't suck" to "will suck," but might have upside.
   54. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:05 PM (#4755905)
They're giving up a 26-year-old infielder who had a great couple of months and has reverted back to non-prospect status, and a 23-year-old pitcher with a 4.15 ERA in A-ball. So they gave up a backup infielder and a guy you never will hear of again for a legitimate starting 3B.

These are *exactly* the kinds of trades the Yankees should be making, because they essentially cost nothing but money, and give them a shot to make the playoffs and maybe steal the division series if everything breaks right.


Great summation.

They got a starter, and the biggest problem may be that he is overpaid. They gave up replacement parts.


   55. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:07 PM (#4755906)
The Yankees have more money than God. If they need to re-stock their system, they should go nuts in international amateur free agency, like they just did. They don't need to trade Robinson Cano or Hiroki Kuroda to re-stock the system.
   56. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:07 PM (#4755907)
Congratulations in advance to Chase Headley for the 145 OPS+ he's going to enjoy the rest of the season for his contract drive. It's like winning the lottery for him.
   57. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4755908)
I would be OK with the Yankees being actually bad for a year or two so that they can subsequently be better than mediocre.

I know the media has crammed the concept down everyone's throats, but being terrible for a year or two doesn't magically make you better in the future.
   58. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4755910)
they could also decide to deal someone like Robertson or Kuroda

They want to extend Robertson, I'm sure, and Kuroda has been OK, but not great.

What do you think they get for Kuroda?
   59. JE (Jason) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:15 PM (#4755913)
They're giving up a 26-year-old infielder who had a great couple of months and has reverted back to non-prospect status, and a 23-year-old pitcher with a 4.15 ERA in A-ball. So they gave up a backup infielder and a guy you never will hear of again for a legitimate starting 3B.

These are *exactly* the kinds of trades the Yankees should be making, because they essentially cost nothing but money, and give them a shot to make the playoffs and maybe steal the division series if everything breaks right.

Agreed. How did the Jays fail to beat the Yankees to the punch?
   60. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:18 PM (#4755914)
The Yankees can’t give Headley a QO, since he was traded midseason before free agency


Oops. Well that removes that value. But still, because the dumb Padres traded him in the first place the Yankees get to sign him without losing a pick!

Not sure what their third base plan for 2015 and beyond is given A-Rod will be ancient next year, but Headley isn't the worst possible option. It's reasonable to expect three or four more average to above average years from him so if the Yanks can go the Nick Swisher route with Chase and get a reasonable 4-5 year deal, they've solved one problem in their "rebuild".

IIRC, he started having back problems.


Fangraphs: Padres finally trade Chase 2 years too late.

He missed the first two weeks of 2013 with a thumb fracture, had left knee surgery that winter — after admitting he’d played through pain all year, just another example of trying to “tough it out” not benefiting anyone — spent two weeks on the DL with a calf strain earlier this year, and missed a few days last month with a sore back.


   61. Srul Itza Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:19 PM (#4755915)
The joke's on the Yankees.

They thought they were getting Chase Hedy.

   62. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:20 PM (#4755916)
Not sure what their third base plan for 2015 and beyond is given A-Rod will be ancient next year, but Headley isn't the worst possible option. It's reasonable to expect three or four more average to above average years from him so if the Yanks can go the Nick Swisher route with Chase and get a reasonable 4-5 year deal, they've solved one problem in their "rebuild".

You'd have to think ARod is a DH at best. So, yeah, Headly fills 3B nicely.
   63. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:22 PM (#4755917)
Or Lena Headley.
   64. SG Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:30 PM (#4755922)
You'd have to think ARod is a DH at best.


You could say the same about Beltran.
   65. billyshears Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:32 PM (#4755924)
But still, because the dumb Padres traded him in the first place the Yankees get to sign him without losing a pick!


I doubt the Padres would have given Headley the QO.
   66. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:46 PM (#4755929)
If I were Cashman I'd dangle Betances. His reputation far outstrips his value, because even if he IS this good going forward he's just a reliever.

But maybe his market value outside New York is more in line with reality than the value Yankees fans who obsess over finding "the next Mariano" place on him.
   67. Moeball Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:47 PM (#4755930)
Boy, I don't know... 14-15 mil for a guy based on what now looks like a completely and totally out of character age 28 season two years ago? I know I'm underplaying park effects here - but Headley would have been an absolute moron to turn down a QO and I personally think the Padres would be extremely foolish to offer one.

I don't know what happened to him between 2011 and 2012 and then what's happened to him since 2012... but beyond a cheap reclamation project, I'd have zero interest in acquiring him.


Well, it wasn't even actually an entire season in 2012.

Headley's career slash line up through 2011: .269/.343/.392/.735

Slash 2013: .250/.347/.400/.747 not all that much different.

Slash 2012 through July 31: .268/.369/.422/.791 it's up a little but not much.

From Aug 1, 2012 to end of season: .318/.389/.632/1.020 with 19 HRs and 63 RBI in 57 games. That would be a 54 HR, 179 RBI season prorated over a full 162 game season. In Petco Park, no less. That's where the anomaly was, and it was absolutely humongous.

That's why when the Biogenesis scandal broke in the spring of 2013 and it was rumored 2 Padres were on the list, I and a lot of others were a bit surprised to hear the names Everth Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal as the guys caught in the net. It was Headley the last 2 months of 2012 that had the stereotypical power surge that would usually raise suspicions nowadays.

At any rate, for 2 months he was Babe Ruth but then he went back to being Chase Headley. Now I don't know who he is.
   68. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: July 22, 2014 at 05:50 PM (#4755931)
Or Hedy Lamarr. Or Hedley Lamarr!
   69. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 22, 2014 at 06:23 PM (#4755939)
The Yankees are more likely to catch the Red Sox than they are the Orioles.
   70. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 22, 2014 at 06:30 PM (#4755943)
Headley's career slash line up through 2011: .269/.343/.392/.735


Which is good for a 105 OPS+, which is very good for a good defender at third base.

Slash 2013: .250/.347/.400/.747 not all that much different.


By "not that much different" you mean a 115 OPS+?

You have heard of park effects, haven't you?

Slash 2012 through July 31: .268/.369/.422/.791 it's up a little but not much.

From Aug 1, 2012 to end of season: .318/.389/.632/1.020 with 19 HRs and 63 RBI in 57 games. That would be a 54 HR, 179 RBI season prorated over a full 162 game season. In Petco Park, no less. That's where the anomaly was, and it was absolutely humongous.


On July 31 of 2012, he was hitting .268/.369/ .422/.791. Thats a little better than his previous season of .289/.374/.399/.773 which was good for a 120 OPS+. For a strong defensive third baseman playing in one of the worst hitters parks in the league, that's pretty awesome.

So yes, if you take out the biggest hot streaks from everyone's career, everyone looks anomalous. Especially if you don't weight all the factors that lead to the hot streak.

2012 Road Parks

Pre Aug 1 (104 games)
15 Hitters Parks (6 COL, 3 CHC, 3 MIL, 3 AZ)
22 Pitchers Parks (6 SFG, 6 LAD, 3 SEA, 3 OAK, 4 HOU)
16 Neutral (3 PHI, 2 WSN, 2 STL, 4 NYM, 3 MIA, 2 CIN)

Post Aug 1 (57 Games)
18 Hitters Parks (2 CIN, 4 ATL, 3 COL, 6 AZ, 3 MIL)
9 Pitchers Parks (3 PIT, 3 LAD, 3 SFG)

Two thirds of Chase's road games (and nearly 1/3 of his total games) were in good hitters parks the final stretch of the seasons. Up to Aug 1, the vast majority of his road parks were either pitchers parks or neutral.

I'm sure that couldn't have had a strong influence on his hot streak, LOL. Or why his first 104 games probably under represented how he was hitting that year.

At any rate, for 2 months he was Babe Ruth but then he went back to being Chase Headley. Now I don't know who he is


Well, Chase Headley without the hot streak is only one of the best third basemen in the league. Chase Headley in a slump like this year is just a good third baseman.
   71. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 06:35 PM (#4755945)
(69) Not if other teams keep giving them 2 and 3 WAR players for free.
   72. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: July 22, 2014 at 06:45 PM (#4755949)
the Padres are deeply stupid.

Repeated for truth. They're kind of a disgrace; they deserve WAY more criticism than Miami and Houston.
   73. Walt Davis Posted: July 22, 2014 at 06:48 PM (#4755951)
It probably won't work out so well but I'm reminder of when the Phils just gifted Abreu to the Yanks in exchange for their failed SS prospect. If you really can't get more for Chase Headley than this you might as well just release him cuz somebody will grab him on waivers and take on the full $3.8 M.

Maybe the Padres read our thread and realized they've got a bit of work to do to be the worst offense ever.
   74. Walt Davis Posted: July 22, 2014 at 06:54 PM (#4755954)
Owner: Hey Josh, what's up?
Byrnes: I've got a deal worked out for Headley.
Owner: That's great. Who with?
Byrnes: Yankees.
Owner: Oh, I hate those guys.
Byrnes: Everybody does but they made the best offer.
Owner: Great, what do we get?
Byrnes: Well, nothing really ... a kid that might be a decent reliever someday.
Owner: Oh ... well, at least I'll save about 4 million.
Byrnes: About that ...
   75. Baldrick Posted: July 22, 2014 at 07:00 PM (#4755956)
So according to people in this thread, the Yankees have no chance of making the playoffs. According to people in the Red Sox thread, the season is already over and it's time to have a FIRE...sale. The Rays are even further back than those two.

So I'm sure the Orioles and Blue Jays will be excited to hear it's been reduced to a two-team race in mid-July
   76. Dale Sams Posted: July 22, 2014 at 07:36 PM (#4755974)
Or Lena Headley.


You play to win in the AL East or you die.
   77. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 22, 2014 at 08:17 PM (#4755989)
So I'm sure the Orioles and Blue Jays will be excited to hear it's been reduced to a two-team race in mid-July


Oh, Blue Jays fans have all committed suicide during their recent 4-10 run. The O's have the field to themselves.
   78. shoelesjoe Posted: July 22, 2014 at 08:53 PM (#4756006)
The Yankees don't have a chance to *do anything* in the playoffs, but the fact is that if they were simply *healthy*, they'd probably be running away with the division right now.

If every team in the AL East was simply healthy the Yankees would be fighting for last place. Sure, NY has been hit by injuries, but they've been hit by a lot less than some other teams.
   79. shoewizard Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:05 PM (#4756011)
A little surprised by the multiple comments about never going to Fangraphs. I don't go for the articles, unless it's linked here. But I go for the stats. They have some things that BR doesn't, and some of the things they have that BR has are good to compare between the two, (WAR, Fielding Stuff, etc). As mentioned above they have park adjusted minor league stats. They have the graphs, (duh!), they have Pitch fx section that is useful. It's a good supplment to BR and both sites have good stuff to offer. The analysis and articles are secondary for me though, as the quality is too inconsistent or doesn't tell me much that I can't figure out for myself.

With regards to Headly, I have this vague sense that injuries have impacted his production. When FULLY healthy, he can produce. I don't htink his 2012 was a complete fluke. He might be one of those guys that is perpetually dinged up or has a nagging injury that just won't heal. Maybe someone who follows the Padres closely can fill us in more.

Anyway the dude is a switch hitting thirdbaseman with a 113 OPS+/wRC+ and plays good defense having a tough season in his age 30 year. I can see him bouncing back pretty strongly, at least to his career numbers, which there is no doubt is an upgrade over what the Yankees have now. And he has far more upside than Solarte, despite his age. He could still give them a 120 OPS+ or something. Solarte is never gonna do that.



   80. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: July 22, 2014 at 09:48 PM (#4756026)
If every team in the AL East was simply healthy the Yankees would be fighting for last place. Sure, NY has been hit by injuries, but they've been hit by a lot less than some other teams.


Excellent job deleting the context of that post. I never said the Yankees would run away with the division if they and everyone else were simply healthy, I was responding to the idea that the Yankees have no chance at the playoffs by pointing out that if the Yankees were merely healthy, without any players playing particularly well compared to expectations, they would currently be well ahead of the competition they currently face, which is how weak the AL East is right now. They don't need to be great to win the division this year, merely okay.
   81. JE (Jason) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 10:09 PM (#4756040)
A little surprised by the multiple comments about never going to Fangraphs. I don't go for the articles, unless it's linked here.

IMHO, nearly all of Petriello's articles are worth reading, as are those from Sullivan and Swydan.
   82. Dale Sams Posted: July 22, 2014 at 10:18 PM (#4756045)
If every team in the AL East was simply healthy the Yankees would be fighting for last place. Sure, NY has been hit by injuries, but they've been hit by a lot less than some other teams.


Sox have pretty much just lost WMB and Shane. WMB being addition by subtraction.
   83. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 22, 2014 at 10:54 PM (#4756063)
was responding to the idea that the Yankees have no chance at the playoffs by pointing out that if the Yankees were merely healthy, without any players playing particularly well compared to expectations, they would currently be well ahead of the competition they currently face, which is how weak the AL East is right now. They don't need to be great to win the division this year, merely okay.


They've substantially overperformed based on pythag. A heathy Yankee team on its pythag is at best has same record, maybe worse.
   84. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: July 22, 2014 at 11:56 PM (#4756084)
The Yankees pythag outperformance is exactly what you'd expect from a team with a superb bullpen and crappy everything else. That's not luck, it just points to the limits of pythag.
   85. shoelesjoe Posted: July 22, 2014 at 11:59 PM (#4756087)
Excellent job deleting the context of that post. I never said the Yankees would run away with the division if they and everyone else were simply healthy, I was responding to the idea that the Yankees have no chance at the playoffs by pointing out that if the Yankees were merely healthy, without any players playing particularly well compared to expectations, they would currently be well ahead of the competition they currently face, which is how weak the AL East is right now.


The premise of your statement was that if the 2014 Yankees played in a parallel universe where they had avoided significant injuries while every other AL East team had not then the Yankees would be running away with the division. Sorry, I find that kind of speculation absurd. You can postulate a reasonable scenario where every team has relative good health, or one where every team gets hit by the usual injuries during the course of the season. In neither of those cases would NY be expected to lead the AL East, and I think it's likely that the healthier everybody is the worse off the Yankees would be, relatively speaking.
   86. Baldrick Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:02 AM (#4756089)
And he's already won them a ####ing game. Ugh.
   87. PreservedFish Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:10 AM (#4756095)
The Yankees pythag outperformance is exactly what you'd expect from a team with a superb bullpen and crappy everything else. That's not luck, it just points to the limits of pythag.


For about 15 years I've been some variation of this comment, and it's always closely followed by the response that pythag doesn't actually work that way.
   88. Dale Sams Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:17 AM (#4756099)
The Yankees pythag outperformance is exactly what you'd expect from a team with a superb bullpen and crappy everything else. That's not luck, it just points to the limits of pythag.


Pinstripe Effect. I'm pretty sure the Yanks usually outperform their Pythag.
   89. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 23, 2014 at 01:08 AM (#4756114)
Sure, NY has been hit by injuries, but they've been hit by a lot less than some other teams.

they got a total of 16 starts from 3/5 of their projected starting rotation (all now out for the season).
18 more from Tanaka, who will likely not return.
so, let's see, 18 +16, that would mean one season's worth of starts from four starters.

(and they still think they should be buyers. sigh........)
   90. Walt Davis Posted: July 23, 2014 at 01:33 AM (#4756122)
I'm sure that couldn't have had a strong influence on his hot streak, LOL.

Of course it had virtually no effect.

Give the hitter's parks a 110 inflation factor -- recall a 105 park effect is a mix of their home inflation and road neutrality so, roughly, 10% more runs scored in the park, 5% more runs scored over the full season.

So again

hitter park = 110
pitcher park = 90
neutral = 100

The 15 hitter, 16 neutral, 22 pitcher before Aug 1 amounts to an average road park factor of about 98.5; given 6 of the road games were in Coors, it's probably closer to 100.

The 18 hitter, 9 pitcher second half amounts to a 105 road park factor

So we'd expect about a 7% increase in road performance between pre- and post-Aug 1. But that's only half his games (give or take) so a 3-4% improvement overall.

What happened was a 19% increase in his BA, 5% in OBP and 50% in SLG ... with 6 of 9 Coors games in the earlier period.

It was nothing more than a 60 game hot streak, out of character with what he had done in that season to that point, anything prior to 2012 and anything after 2012. It certainly wasn't expected due to a shift in road PF.

Looking at his later game logs (too lazy to do more plus it's your job), if I added right, at home from Aug 1 he hit 298/622 with 10 HR. For the season it was 272/455 with 13 HR at home. So 10 of his 13 HRs at home came from Aug 1 on ... that ain't PF. For the year on the road he hit 300/541 and during the hot streak 356/683 so about a 20% increase in both (and 9 of his 18 road HR) ... that also ain't PF.

Going micro on players is rarely worth it but going even more micro and coming to an even sillier conclusion is ...

   91. Swedish Chef Posted: July 23, 2014 at 05:38 AM (#4756146)
#74 Byrnes was fired earlier this season, I think Omar Minaya is still acting GM for the Psdres.
   92. shoewizard Posted: July 23, 2014 at 07:27 AM (#4756152)
IMHO, nearly all of Petriello's articles are worth reading, as are those from Sullivan and Swydan.


Agree with this, especially Sullivan. I don't mean I never read the articles.....but most of the good ones are linked here.

   93. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: July 23, 2014 at 07:45 AM (#4756156)
The premise of your statement was that if the 2014 Yankees played in a parallel universe where they had avoided significant injuries while every other AL East team had not then the Yankees would be running away with the division. Sorry, I find that kind of speculation absurd. You can postulate a reasonable scenario where every team has relative good health, or one where every team gets hit by the usual injuries during the course of the season. In neither of those cases would NY be expected to lead the AL East, and I think it's likely that the healthier everybody is the worse off the Yankees would be, relatively speaking.


Yes, it's absurd, and you're being vastly more absurd by TOTALLY MISSING THE POINT. TWICE.

The point is that the AL East is terrible right now, and thus the not-very-good Yankees have a chance to make the postseason IN THE REAL WORLD. The "merely healthy" scenario was put forward only to show how terrible the division is right now, IN THE REAL WORLD. But you clearly have no ability to see past your "But but but then everyone else would be healthy too!" argument, which is completely irrelevant to the point. We're not talking about the Yankees being unlucky or whether the Yankees are better than everyone else, we're saying that the AL East is terrible and because of that the Yankees have a chance to win it despite not having a ton of talent and suffering a ton of serious injuries.

Since you're only going to respond by going back to "But everyone else would also run away with the division if they were healthy!" (Which makes the same point I'm making but you're clearly not seeing that), I'm going to ignore you from now on.
   94. villageidiom Posted: July 23, 2014 at 08:20 AM (#4756160)
It would have been easier to make the point by simply saying they are only a few games out in July. You don't have to bring up injuries (for one team) to make that point. That you did bring it up confuses the point. Drawing the distinction between the Yankees performance in reality vs. alternate healthy universe underscores how bad the Yankees are in reality, not how bad the division is.

Whatever, we get your point now.
   95. formerly dp Posted: July 23, 2014 at 08:46 AM (#4756164)
The Jays are currently down 1/3 of their starting 9 (Lawrie, Encarnacion, and Lind). It's not like the Yankees are the only front-runner bitten by that bug. They're all expected back in fairly short order though, whereas the Yankees will be going forward without the best pitcher in the league taking the mound every fifth day.
   96. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: July 23, 2014 at 09:42 AM (#4756181)
For about 15 years I've been some variation of this comment, and it's always closely followed by the response that pythag doesn't actually work that way.


That's not quite right. I understand it as pythag shouldn't theoretically be affected by pitching leverage, but it is affected, empirically.
   97. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:04 AM (#4756187)
The point is that the AL East is terrible right now,

As of this morning, the AL East is collectively 6 games over .500. That's not great, but three weeks ago it was 8 games under. Only the AL West and the NL Central have better overall records.
   98. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:16 AM (#4756190)

Repeated for truth. They're kind of a disgrace; they deserve WAY more criticism than Miami and Houston.


Agree 1000%. The Padres never even let it get to a full rebuild. They tear down while the thing is still getting built. Their ownership/management has been a disgrace since the early 90s.
   99. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:16 AM (#4756192)
If I were Cashman I'd dangle Betances. His reputation far outstrips his value, because even if he IS this good going forward he's just a reliever.


Maybe they could get Ike Davis.
   100. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:51 AM (#4756200)
Excellent job deleting the context of that post. I never said the Yankees would run away with the division if they and everyone else were simply healthy, I was responding to the idea that the Yankees have no chance at the playoffs by pointing out that if the Yankees were merely healthy, without any players playing particularly well compared to expectations, they would currently be well ahead of the competition they currently face, which is how weak the AL East is right now. They don't need to be great to win the division this year, merely okay.


I completely disagree. Let's take it in pieces:

Their lineup has for the most part been healthy; it has just sucked.

Their relievers have been healthy and they've been very good.

So for the position players and bullpen, health is irrelevant to the point you're trying to make.

That leaves the starters. And yes, we've seen these starters go down:

Sabathia
Pineda
Nova
Tanaka

But Sabathia has sucked for two years now, so him going down is irrelevant to anything; he was already pitching at replacement level (-0.1 WAR in 2013 and 2014).

Let's go to Pineda. It makes zero sense to have factored Pineda in to anything the Yankees were going to do this year. He hadn't pitched in the majors since 2011, and he's been trying to come back from a serious shoulder injury - and as we know, shoulder injuries are very difficult to come back from. In fact, I called it in April in the thread discussing his ejection:

99. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 24, 2014 at 03:32 PM (#4693401)

...

There's a significant chance he re-injures his shoulder anyway. I don't think you can count on him to be both healthy and effective for the whole year. In fact, missing a couple of starts probably is the best thing for him health-wise anyway.


You're not being logical if you are claiming that it was reasonable to expect Pineda would be healthy for the bulk of the season.

Let's move to Nova. Sure, he's alternated good seasons with bad, so you might have gotten a good season from him this year. He was giving you a bad one, though. But okay, let's count him.

Finally, there's Tanaka. Obviously his loss is huge, but here's the thing: he just got injured 20 seconds ago. So there's no way the Yankees' current record would be much different at all if Tanaka hadn't gone down.

So I see maybe one player on the entire team, Nova, whose health may have significantly affected the Yankees' record this year given any reasonable projection of player performances. One. So there is no way the Yankees would be "running away" with anything right now given perfect health (which of course other teams don't have, so this is a silly exercise anyway, even if you take umbrage with people pointing that out). The Yankees are a mediocre team. Nuno, Whitley, Phelps, Greene, and McCarthy have given the Yankees about what they could have expected from Sabathia, Pineda, and Nova. So please stop with this nonsense that the Yankees would have been running away with anything had they been healthy.

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