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Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Chase Headley traded to New York Yankees from San Diego Padres - ESPN New York

The New York Yankees have acquired third baseman Chase Headley in a trade Tuesday with the San Diego Padres.

The Yankees dealt infielder Yangervis Solarte and minor league pitcher Rafael De Paula to San Diego in exchange for Headley, who could boost New York’s struggling lineup.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 22, 2014 at 02:33 PM | 141 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: padres, trades, yankees

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   101. DKDC Posted: July 23, 2014 at 10:54 AM (#4756202)
As of this morning, the AL East is collectively 6 games over .500. That's not great, but three weeks ago it was 8 games under. Only the AL West and the NL Central have better overall records.


I wouldn’t be surprised to see the AL East end up with the best record by the end of the year, particularly with all 5 teams going for it.
   102. villageidiom Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:32 AM (#4756226)
The point is that the AL East is terrible right now,

As of this morning, the AL East is collectively 6 games over .500.
I think when people have been saying the AL East is terrible what they really mean is that the division leader is relatively weak. Orioles are on, what, an 89-win pace?
   103. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:34 AM (#4756227)
Yanks are projected to have more WAR than the Blue Jays, Indians and Mariners, not as much as the Royals, the rest of the way.

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team
   104. villageidiom Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:44 AM (#4756235)
Their lineup has for the most part been healthy; it has just sucked.

Their relievers have been healthy and they've been very good.

So for the position players and bullpen, health is irrelevant to the point you're trying to make.
Assuming the only impact of health is DL time. I know Teixeira has been playing with a significant back/lat injury for at least a month. Don't know about the others.
   105. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:51 AM (#4756237)
Assuming the only impact of health is DL time. I know Teixeira has been playing with a significant back/lat injury for at least a month. Don't know about the others.


Teixeira this year has been roughly the same hitter he's been since 2010, other than season lost to injury last year:

Year   Age  Tm    G   PA  HR   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+   TB
2009    29 NYY  156  707  39 .292 .383 .565 .948  141  344
2010    30 NYY  158  712  33 .256 .365 .481 .846  124  289
2011    31 NYY  156  684  39 .248 .341 .494 .835  121  291
2012    32 NYY  123  524  24 .251 .332 .475 .807  115  214
2013    33 NYY   15   63   3 .151 .270 .340 .609   68   18
2014    34 NYY   76  318  17 .231 .330 .443 .773  114  121 


What reason is there to believe that Teixeira should be hitting much better than he is now? He hasn't been a much better hitter than this in half a decade.
   106. DKDC Posted: July 23, 2014 at 11:55 AM (#4756239)
That Yankees Fangraphs projection includes 39 innings from Tanaka, and ~3.5 PA/gm from here on out from each of Ellsbury, Headley, Gardner, McCann, Teixeira, Beltran, Jeter, Ichiro, and Roberts.

I think when people have been saying the AL East is terrible what they really mean is that the division leader is relatively weak. Orioles are on, what, an 89-win pace?


Other than Oakland, every other division leader is within a game of the Orioles.
   107. alilisd Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:16 PM (#4756261)
#74 Byrnes was fired earlier this season, I think Omar Minaya is still acting GM for the Psdres.


Supposedly it's Minaya, Hinch, and Uhlman acting collectively. No effing idea how that is supposed to work!
   108. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:16 PM (#4756262)
The point is that the AL East is terrible right now,


As of this morning, the AL East is collectively 6 games over .500. That's not great, but three weeks ago it was 8 games under. Only the AL West and the NL Central have better overall records.

I think when people have been saying the AL East is terrible what they really mean is that the division leader is relatively weak. Orioles are on, what, an 89-win pace?


Then the word should have been "mediocre" rather than "terrible". And even there, as DKDC notes, that leaves but one "non-mediocre" division leader, and one "non-mediocre" wild card team, which means that 28 teams out of 30 could be considered "mediocre".

If any division might be called "terrible", it'd be the NL West, with 3 of 5 teams that are between 13 and 20 games below .500.

   109. alilisd Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4756269)
Their ownership/management has been a disgrace since the early 90s.


Syas the Royals fan? Really? Glass houses, Baby, glass houses. :-)

Two playoff appearances and one WS appearance in the mid to late-90's were a disgrace? The franchises best sustained run of success (low bar I'll admit) from 2004 through 2007 was a disgrace? Look, the ownership situation has certainly been horrible since Moores announced he was getting a divorce and would be selling the team; however, MLB takes a big chunk of that responsibility for allowing Moorad to put together an ownership group, but then not allowing him and his group to complete the purchase thereby requiring a further period of lame duck Moores.
   110. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:37 PM (#4756277)
Yea, its been a disgrace. They play in the 8th largest city in the US, a mid-sized media market, the taxpayers built them a gorgeous stadium, and they operate like a penny-pinching small market. I'm not saying the Royals have operated any better, but I am amazed how more scrutiny hasn't been put on how awful the Padres have operated as a franchise. I guess they've at least been smart enough to put GMs in place that could make do with what little resources they have had, while the Royals hire an idiot, but if I were a Padres fan, I'd be outraged.
   111. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4756281)
As of this morning, the AL East is collectively 6 games over .500. That's not great, but three weeks ago it was 8 games under. Only the AL West and the NL Central have better overall records.


I think when people have been saying the AL East is terrible what they really mean is that the division leader is relatively weak. Orioles are on, what, an 89-win pace?

The Yankees and Orioles are both playing above pythag (by 5 and 3 games). The division as a whole has been been outscored by its opponents (though just barely). It is pretty much the definition of mediocre
   112. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:51 PM (#4756283)
The Yankees pythag outperformance is exactly what you'd expect from a team with a superb bullpen and crappy everything else. That's not luck, it just points to the limits of pythag.


And their 3rd order win percentage is nearly as bad as their pythag, i.e.. adjusting for competition & the runs they should have scored/allowed. So I guess it points to the limits of 3rd order pythag as well?

And it's not crappy team/superb bullpen, it's blowouts. Teams that beat their pythag tend to do well in close games and poorly in blowouts. If your only strong team component is your best relievers, they don't get to pitch in blowouts often. It's the back end of your starting rotation that gets blown out and your 6th starter/long reliever can't put the fire out so you lose by 10 runs instead of 5, and it makes your pythag look worse than it should (maybe).
   113. PreservedFish Posted: July 23, 2014 at 01:25 PM (#4756305)
The Mets had a year recently where they were killing pythag, and it was due directly to the crappiness of their bullpen. It just so happened that year that when the Mets were winning, the bullpen would give up runs but still just barely nail down the win. 3 run leads turned into 1 run victories. When they were losing, the bullpen gave up more runs and turned close losses into blowouts. 1 run deficits turned into 3 run losses. Opened my eyes as to how this number can get juked from either side.
   114. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 23, 2014 at 01:38 PM (#4756313)
The Mets had a year recently where they were killing pythag, and it was due directly to the crappiness of their bullpen. It just so happened that year that when the Mets were winning, the bullpen would give up runs but still just barely nail down the win. 3 run leads turned into 1 run victories. When they were losing, the bullpen gave up more runs and turned close losses into blowouts. 1 run deficits turned into 3 run losses. Opened my eyes as to how this number can get juked from either side.


I don't think it's possible to consistently outperform your pythag. I think it is possible to underperform on your RS/RA, but that doesn't do your team any good.
   115. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:25 PM (#4756335)
I don't think it's possible to consistently outperform your pythag. I think it is possible to underperform on your RS/RA, but that doesn't do your team any good.

Since 1994 (advent of WC) the Yankees are a cumulative +59 games vs. pythag. in 20 season and 2014 YTD. They have outperformed 16 years, under-performed 4 years, and were flat one year.

That sure seems like consistence outperformance.
   116. villageidiom Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:26 PM (#4756336)
Other than Oakland, every other division leader is within a game of the Orioles.
The second AL wild card is within 2.5 games of the Orioles, and is currently occupied by the 3rd place team in the AL West.
   117. Swedish Chef Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:32 PM (#4756342)
A team with four average starters and me would consistently outperform its pythag, I would allow more runs than all of the others put together, I still wouldn't be able to lose more than 20% of the games.
   118. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:38 PM (#4756346)
Since 1994 (advent of WC) the Yankees are a cumulative +59 games vs. pythag. in 20 season and 2014 YTD. They have outperformed 16 years, under-performed 4 years, and were flat one year.

That sure seems like consistence outperformance.


Or consistent underperformance on RS/RA, which looks like the same thing.
   119. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:40 PM (#4756347)
Since 1994 (advent of WC) the Yankees are a cumulative +59 games vs. pythag. in 20 season and 2014 YTD. They have outperformed 16 years, under-performed 4 years, and were flat one year.

That sure seems like consistence outperformance.


I don't want to misrepresent Chris Jaffe's views on this but I recall him putting some stock in outperforming pythag in his book that evaluates managers. I mention that because, and this is based on my crappy memory, it seemed as if Torre managed in a way that would cause a team to outperform its pythagorean record. He was decent at putting in his strong relievers in close high leverage situations, and, maybe this is because he always had old players on his teams, he was willing to field some really crappy line ups on travel days and in games of little importance (as it seemed he viewed them). Plus, it seemed he went to the bench early in blow outs.
   120. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:45 PM (#4756348)
[The Padres] play in the 8th largest city in the US

Population within city limits is irrelevant. San Diego metro is smaller than Cleveland metro.
   121. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:46 PM (#4756349)
I don't want to misrepresent Chris Jaffe's views on this but I recall him putting some stock in outperforming pythag in his book that evaluates managers. I mention that because, and this is based on my crappy memory, it seemed as if Torre managed in a way that would cause a team to outperform its pythagorean record. He was decent at putting in his strong relievers in close high leverage situations, and, maybe this is because he always had old players on his teams, he was willing to field some really crappy line ups on travel days and in games of little importance (as it seemed he viewed them). Plus, it seemed he went to the bench early in blow outs.


And that's what I mean by underperforming your RS/RA. The important thing is that you're not grabbing extra wins, you're simply allowing your RS/RA to drop below what would be expected (which elevates your pyth relative to your true W-L).

It's possible that the Yankees found the elusive magic (though, even then, I'm not sure "employ Mariano Rivera" is really a plan), but my guess is they haven't actually been squeezing out extra wins every year through some shrewd deployment of resources.
   122. PreservedFish Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:47 PM (#4756352)
Seems like one should be able to discover whether or not the Yankees were on the losing end of more blowouts than your average great team. Or if they delivered fewer blowouts than you would expect.
   123. Ron J2 Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4756354)
#107 The glory days of the Blue Jays were run more or less as a committee -- with Bobby Mattick representing their scouts. It worked until for years.

But then they were coming out of years of Peter Bavasi -- a total control freak who had pushed all concerned past their breaking point.
   124. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:00 PM (#4756362)
I don't want to misrepresent Chris Jaffe's views on this but I recall him putting some stock in outperforming pythag in his book that evaluates managers. I mention that because, and this is based on my crappy memory, it seemed as if Torre managed in a way that would cause a team to outperform its pythagorean record. He was decent at putting in his strong relievers in close high leverage situations, and, maybe this is because he always had old players on his teams, he was willing to field some really crappy line ups on travel days and in games of little importance (as it seemed he viewed them). Plus, it seemed he went to the bench early in blow outs.

They are +15 in 6+ years of Girardi, +41 in 12 years of Torre.
   125. alilisd Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:01 PM (#4756363)
They play in the 8th largest city in the US, a mid-sized media market, the taxpayers built them a gorgeous stadium, and they operate like a penny-pinching small market.


Really my issue was your claiming it began in the early 90's, which is incorrect. They've had considerable success, for the Padres, during much of that time. The disgrace in terms of ownership action/inaction, which again is in large part the responsibility of MLB and not solely Padrees ownership, has only been during the past five years.

While SD is a large city, much of its population are transplants and military who do not transplant their sporting allegiances. Also, it is a city with many attractions competing for attendance. Still, when putting a reasonable quality product on the field attendance is pretty good. It is the media market where we fall down. We're not a strong media market. Penetration to the south is limited by the border, to the east the desert and the D-Backs, and to the north Anaheim and LA. For years the Padres had an absolutely horrendous TV deal with Cox. This hampered them, but it's not something which ownership had any control once the contract was signed.

Yes, the taxpayers built a beautiful stadium, much as they have in nearly every MLB city, and that was a disgrace foisted on the public by, ostensible, public servants as well as a very savvy owner. Heap scorn on Moores for this if you wish, but at least we have a nice park to watch a game in, and it's far from unique to San Diego.

The penny pinching only began once Moores announced his divorce, and continued due to Moorad's high debt taken on to finance the team. Again, MLB shares a good bit of the blame for this, particularly when they subsequently decided not to allow him and his group to complete the purchase. This shifted the ownership back to Moores, who still wasn't going to put any money into the team, but it did allow him to take a HUGE chunk of cash with him when he left shortly after the new TV deal was signed. That was a disgrace.

The new ownership is not doing a very good job of looking like they are competent and going to put the house in order, but they deserve some time. Changes such as those needed do not happen overnight, and it's far too early to determine whether they will be disgraceful, a la Loria, or simply mediocre in the tradition of the franchise.
   126. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:05 PM (#4756367)
I don't want to misrepresent Chris Jaffe's views on this but I recall him putting some stock in outperforming pythag in his book that evaluates managers. I mention that because, and this is based on my crappy memory, it seemed as if Torre managed in a way that would cause a team to outperform its pythagorean record. He was decent at putting in his strong relievers in close high leverage situations, and, maybe this is because he always had old players on his teams, he was willing to field some really crappy line ups on travel days and in games of little importance (as it seemed he viewed them). Plus, it seemed he went to the bench early in blow outs.

IOW if you're being raped, just relax and enjoy it. You'll return to the field freshly re-virginated tomorrow. (smile)

Of course you can interpret S. Paige's analysis in two entirely different ways, neither of which necessarily contradicts the other: Either Torre made a lot of shrewd managerial decisions, or Pythag numbers underrated his teams' actual strength.
   127. alilisd Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:06 PM (#4756368)
I keep meaning to add an injury report for Headley. In 2013 he broke the tip of his thumb in spring training, and this hampered him for much of the season. He's also developed some calf issues which limited him both last year and are recurring this year. I've also heard he's having some back issue, which I'm not familiar with, but I believe is new this year. So there are definitely some injury concerns with him going forward, the calf and the back being potentially serious. I think his thumb is fine now, at least I haven't heard any complaints about it this year.
   128. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:15 PM (#4756375)

I don't want to misrepresent Chris Jaffe's views on this but I recall him putting some stock in outperforming pythag in his book that evaluates managers. I mention that because, and this is based on my crappy memory, it seemed as if Torre managed in a way that would cause a team to outperform its pythagorean record. He was decent at putting in his strong relievers in close high leverage situations, and, maybe this is because he always had old players on his teams, he was willing to field some really crappy line ups on travel days and in games of little importance (as it seemed he viewed them). Plus, it seemed he went to the bench early in blow outs.


Speaking as someone who has paid close attention to the Yankees since I moved to NYC in 1998 -- including watching a gazillion innings on tv (though almost never full games during the regular season) and virtually every postseason inning -- this aligns with my impression of Torre's managing.

And frankly Girardi seems to manage this way too. Which to me indicates that it's coming from upstairs.

But yes, the Yankees always do seem to overperform their pythags. The frustrating thing (as a Red Sox fan) is that a lot of this seems to be dumb luck, e.g., getting magic pixie dust performances from desperation plug-ins like Yangervis Solarte, Aaron Small, Ichiro after he came over, Alfonso Soriano after he came over, Eric Chavez, Marcus Thames, Shawn Chacon, Shane Spencer... They acquired Glenallen Hill in 2000 and got the best 150 PA of his life.

They got Mariano Duncan to hit .340 for them in 1996.

Bobby Abreu had slipped when they acquired him but he hit .330 for them that first year anyway.

Alfonso Soriano last year gave them a level of performance he hadn't seen for seven years.

Eric Chavez didn't hit for them in 2011 but in 2012 he gave them his best performance in eight years.

They got a fading Ichiro to hit .322 for them after coming over.

A fading David Justice hit to a 145 OPS+ for them when he came over in 2000.

Yes, I'm only detailing the good performances here. Other players have not worked out. But there have been a hell of a lot of good, random, somewhat unexpected or just completely unexpected performances.
   129. AROM Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:16 PM (#4756378)
Oh, Blue Jays fans have all committed suicide during their recent 4-10 run.


Nah, to keep with the Lena Headey/ Game of Thrones theme, they have mostly just watched their would-be kings of the north turn into Bran Starks while trying to beat throws to first.

Things would look better if Edwin Encarnacion was allowed to hit and have a Hodor carry him around the bases.
   130. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:17 PM (#4756379)

Really my issue was your claiming it began in the early 90's, which is incorrect. They've had considerable success, for the Padres, during much of that time.


Fair enough. I said early 90s because I recall the big firesale they had in the early 90s when they got rid of Fred McGriff, Gary Sheffield, and Andy Benes for pretty much nothing. They did have a nice stretch there where they won a pennant, but more recently, the ownership has been a joke, and they've only been lucky they hired some smart people in the front office to keep them from fielding a completely awful team.
   131. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:24 PM (#4756385)

They got Mariano Duncan to hit .340 for them in 1996.

Bobby Abreu had slipped when they acquired him but he hit .330 for them that first year anyway.

Alfonso Soriano last year gave them a level of performance he hadn't seen for seven years.

Eric Chavez didn't hit for them in 2011 but in 2012 he gave them his best performance in eight years.

They got a fading Ichiro to hit .322 for them after coming over.

A fading David Justice hit to a 145 OPS+ for them when he came over in 2000.

Yes, I'm only detailing the good performances here. Other players have not worked out. But there have been a hell of a lot of good, random, somewhat unexpected or just completely unexpected performances.


But, all that should show up in RS/RA. Getting unexpectedly good performance won't automatically make you outperform Pythag.

If the Yankees sign you and me to contracts tomorrow, and I magically pitch 80 innings to a 2.00 ERA, and you put up a 150 OPS+ and +10 UZR at SS, for the rest of the season, that's miraculous luck, but won't cause them to out perform pythag, just to allow fewer runs and score more.
   132. AROM Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4756387)
In the game of the AL East throne this year,

Blue Jays are the Starks. Won some early battles, looked likely to win, then got slaughtered or came up lame.
Yankees, as always, are the Lannisters.
Red Sox are the Ironborn, and will be as long as Theon Buchholz is on the team.

Not sure about Orioles and Rays
   133. PreservedFish Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:33 PM (#4756396)
The frustrating thing (as a Red Sox fan) is that a lot of this seems to be dumb luck, e.g., getting magic pixie dust performances from desperation plug-ins


Armchair sports psychologist alert ... the Yankees are in fact the most storied and wealthiest team, and pulling on the pinstripes for the first time probably does feel special. The hair policy might even feed into it - you are being welcomed into a tradition and a system that has had amazing results. If you're a random middling player like Aaron Small, or an over the hill Soriano, a player that feels unwanted in the sport, I could imagine it being a tremendous boost of confidence that the Yankees have chosen YOU. Two days ago Chase Headley was on a crappy team with unhappy people, and now he has a new haircut and he's a Yankee! Wow!
   134. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:40 PM (#4756401)
But, all that should show up in RS/RA.


Yes, that's true.
   135. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:46 PM (#4756407)
In the game of the AL East throne this year,

Blue Jays are the Starks. Won some early battles, looked likely to win, then got slaughtered or came up lame.
Yankees, as always, are the Lannisters.
Red Sox are the Ironborn, and will be as long as Theon Buchholz is on the team.

Not sure about Orioles and Rays


The Red Sox are the Baratheons, who think the championship is owed to them.
The Rays are the Taegaryans, the plucky rag-tag group who everyone gave up for dead.
The Orioles are Littlefinger, overlooked, but quietly scheming his way to the top.
   136. Nasty Nate Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:50 PM (#4756413)

Armchair sports psychologist alert ... the Yankees are in fact the most storied and wealthiest team, and pulling on the pinstripes for the first time probably does feel special. The hair policy might even feed into it - you are being welcomed into a tradition and a system that has had amazing results. If you're a random middling player like Aaron Small, or an over the hill Soriano, a player that feels unwanted in the sport, I could imagine it being a tremendous boost of confidence that the Yankees have chosen YOU. Two days ago Chase Headley was on a crappy team with unhappy people, and now he has a new haircut and he's a Yankee! Wow!


But talk radio has taught me that it's tougher to play in NY because it is a Big Spot on a Big Stage and those cornball antics may play in the sticks, but this is Capital City!
   137. PreservedFish Posted: July 23, 2014 at 04:01 PM (#4756426)
But talk radio has taught me that it's tougher to play in NY because it is a Big Spot on a Big Stage and those cornball antics may play in the sticks, but this is Capital City!


Actually I think both could be true. An established star player might have quite a different feeling coming onto the Yankees.

Now I'll be quiet because I'm going to get Ray's blood boiling.
   138. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: July 23, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4756428)
Perhaps I'm missing something, but what's the difference between underperforming RS/RA and overperforming pythag. Isn't that two different ways of describing the exact same thing?
   139. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 23, 2014 at 04:19 PM (#4756443)
But yes, the Yankees always do seem to overperform their pythags. The frustrating thing (as a Red Sox fan) is that a lot of this seems to be dumb luck, e.g., getting magic pixie dust performances from desperation plug-ins like Yangervis Solarte, Aaron Small, Ichiro after he came over, Alfonso Soriano after he came over, Eric Chavez, Marcus Thames, Shawn Chacon, Shane Spencer... They acquired Glenallen Hill in 2000 and got the best 150 PA of his life.

And yet you continue to deny the existence of The Man With The Plan.
   140. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 23, 2014 at 04:29 PM (#4756454)
Perhaps I'm missing something, but what's the difference between underperforming RS/RA and overperforming pythag. Isn't that two different ways of describing the exact same thing?


Nothing, other than how it's perceived (and what it would mean). Overperforming Pythag (at least when it's not chalked up to luck) is presented as some skill or smart use of resources - such as the Yankees consistently outperforming pythag. Overperforming pyth suggests that teams are getting more wins than their RS/RA fundamentals suggest they should.

However, I think it's less likely that teams can wring more wins out of their fundamentals than it is that they can lower their fundamentals, either yielding more runs or scoring fewer, thereby making their W-L look better in relation to their pythag.

If an organization or a skipper could consistently do the former, it would have tremendous value. Doing the latter is virtually worthless.
   141. alilisd Posted: July 23, 2014 at 06:18 PM (#4756536)
I said early 90s because I recall the big firesale they had in the early 90s when they got rid of Fred McGriff, Gary Sheffield, and Andy Benes for pretty much nothing.


Bite your tongue! Trevor Hoffman was acquired in the Sheffield trade! :-)
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