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Friday, January 03, 2014

Chaz Scoggins: Hall of Fame paranoia should not tar Glavine

Chaz suspects the usual.

How ironic would it be if Tom Glavine, one of the primary forces behind the elimination of PEDs from baseball, were to be tainted with the same broad brush used to tar the abusers and be passed over when the voting for the Hall of Fame is announced on Jan. 8?

How ironic and how unfair.

It could very well happen, however, even though the Billerica-bred lefthander’s pitching credentials merit enshrinement in his first year of eligibility. Last year, in spite of being presented with one of the richest talent slates ever, the Baseball Writers Association of America declined to elect anybody for one of the very few times in history. Too many—far too many—of my voting brethren are punishing everyone on the ballot out of paranoia because they can’t be certain who played dirty and who played clean, so let’s keep ‘em all out of Cooperstown.

This year’s ballot was even more crowded with superstar-studded candidates, including the notable additions of Glavine, Greg Maddux, and Frank Thomas. Still there’s a very real chance no one will be elected by the self-appointed crusaders for the second straight year, something that hasn’t happened since players from the watered-down wartime era dominated the ballots from 1957-1961.

One long-time official at the Hall of Fame, who claims to have an 80 percent success rate at predicting who will be elected, recently went on the record by saying only Maddux, Glavine’s perennial co-ace on the Atlanta Braves, will be elected this year.

If so, or if he’s wrong and nobody gets in, that would be a shame.

Repoz Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:25 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:30 PM (#4629216)
Glav's going in. I've said it from day one.
   2. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:34 PM (#4629221)
The ballot-collecting gizmo sure makes him look like a lock, but stranger things have happened.

I mean, if Don Sutton didn't get in until his 5th try, though, it's not the end of the world if Glavine has to wait another year.
   3. base ball chick Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:40 PM (#4629230)
no it is not the end of the world.
but it is really dumb for sportswriters to continue to refuse to put great players in the Hall and glavine was, in fact, a great pitcher

and with more than 10 people on the ballot deserving to get in, it is bullstuff to just keep them there rotting for another year to, what? insist that every lefty pitcher exceed lefty grove/koufax (well, his 5 years, i mean) to get in?

and there is no more reason to think that glavine didn't use steroids than anyone else. i hate this stupid - get out of jail free- card that some guys are getting based on nothing while others are branded steroid users based on nothing
   4. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:40 PM (#4629231)
In a weird way it helps him to be on the ballot with Maddux, even though he's obviously the lesser. It's just like, 'ok, Maddux and Glavine, now let's look at the other guys'. Somehow I think if Maddux weren't there he'd get pulled into the muck with Mussina and Schilling and get more scrutiny but somehow because they were teammates for so long it's just 'Maddux and Glavine'.
   5. Srul Itza Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:47 PM (#4629237)
How ironic and how unfair.


and How unlikely

It could very well happen


No, not very well.

The ballot-collecting gizmo sure makes him look like a lock, but stranger things have happened.


Not very much stranger. He's trending over 97%. This would be the selection bias to end all selection biases, if it was that far off. And it never has been

One long-time official at the Hall of Fame, who claims to have an 80 percent success rate at predicting who will be elected, recently went on the record by saying only Maddux, Glavine’s perennial co-ace on the Atlanta Braves, will be elected this year.


Unless this long-time official tampers with the ballots, his "success rate" is about to take a hit.

Seriously, how is it nobody has clued this guy in on the ballot-collecting gizmo, given all the publicity it has gotten recently?
   6. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:49 PM (#4629239)

Seriously, how is it nobody has clued this guy in on the ballot-collecting gizmo, given all the publicity it has gotten recently?


I put a comment in the otherwise empty comments section. 'Twas awaiting moderation at last look.
   7. Srul Itza Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:50 PM (#4629240)
SoSH -- I saw it, so it is on line.
   8. Repoz Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:53 PM (#4629243)
Seriously, how is it nobody has clued this guy in on the ballot-collecting gizmo, given all the publicity it has gotten recently?

I had to hep Bill Deane to the Gizmo yesterday before his (possible Glavine gotcha moment) appearance on Brian Kenny's Clubhouse Confidential.
   9. The District Attorney Posted: January 03, 2014 at 02:59 PM (#4629248)
I never heard of this Chaz Scoggins. And frankly, it sounds made up.
   10. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:03 PM (#4629251)
I never heard of this Chaz Scoggins. And frankly, it sounds made up.
And yet, his vote still counts.

THANKS OBAMA.
   11. DA Baracus Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:09 PM (#4629261)
I never heard of this Chaz Scoggins.


I think he was the drummer in the E Street Band before Max Weinberg.
   12. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:21 PM (#4629273)
One long-time official at the Hall of Fame, who claims to have an 80 percent success rate at predicting who will be elected, recently went on the record by saying only Maddux, Glavine’s perennial co-ace on the Atlanta Braves, will be elected this year.


If he went on the record, then isn't his name public?
   13. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:25 PM (#4629279)
If he went on the record, then isn't his name public?


I believe he's referring to the fella Repoz hepped yesterday (post 8). Deane's forecasts are looking to be way the hell off (he projected Glavine to get 67 percent of the vote).

   14. flournoy Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4629281)
One long-time official at the Hall of Fame, who claims to have an 80 percent success rate at predicting who will be elected


I saw this guy referenced somewhere else a while ago. I forget where. I'm interested to know some details about this claim, since it seems bizarrely unimpressive. I could easily have a 95%+ success rate predicting election results. Maddux? In. J.T. Snow? Out. Todd Jones? Out. Jacque Jones? Out. Tom Glavine? In. This is really easy. The borderline cases are well under 5% of the candidates.
   15. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:27 PM (#4629284)
I never heard of this Chaz Scoggins. And frankly, it sounds made up.


Scoggins has written for the Lowell (MA) Sun roughly since Tris Speaker patrolling centerfield at Fenway. I am pretty sure he was one of the official scorers at Fenway through the 70s and 80s.
   16. Repoz Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:35 PM (#4629299)
Bill Deane's...The 2014 Hall of Fame election forecast.

He went on Clubhouse Confidential and basically stuck to his guns.
   17. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:37 PM (#4629307)
Classic Repoz intro. Too bad Tanyon Sturtze isn't on the ballot. (Old Primates might get this.)
   18. Bob Tufts Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:42 PM (#4629319)
I wonder if Bill Madden and his ilk will not vote for Glavine because:

1. Glavine was a player rep for the Braves and Mets and a NL player rep who was instrumental in the 1994-84 strike - he also must have kept steroid testing form happening and therefore like Marvin Miller he fails the integrity test

2. The "chicks dig the long ball" commercial with McGwire obviously shows his support for illegal substances (but Maddux gets a pass...)
   19. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 03, 2014 at 03:55 PM (#4629342)
Bill Deane's...The 2014 Hall of Fame election forecast.

He went on Clubhouse Confidential and basically stuck to his guns.


"This is my 33rd year predicting Hall of Fame elections. I think the acid test of prognostication performance lies in guessing the fate of men who finish within 10% either way of being elected (i.e., who receive between 65-85% of the vote). Among such candidates, I have gone 50-12 (.806) in correctly predicting who would or would not make it over the years. I was one of the few who correctly, publicly forecast the 2013 shutout."

So, in other words, when Glavine (and maybe also Thomas) sails in with OVER 85% of the vote it won't even hurt his percentage. All of his percentages look very low compared to the Gizmo.
   20. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 03, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4629357)
How ironic and how unfair.


If other guys get tarred and feathered, that's fine. But not Glavine. It would only be unfair to accuse *him* without evidence.
   21. villageidiom Posted: January 03, 2014 at 05:14 PM (#4629432)
I am pretty sure he was one of the official scorers at Fenway through the 70s and 80s.
Yes, he was. And he still is an official scorer at Fenway.
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: January 03, 2014 at 05:40 PM (#4629455)
I was one of the few who correctly, publicly forecast the 2013 shutout."


Weird definition of the word few, which in this context has to be pretty much "everyone."....

Didn't most people predict a shutout for last year? (not me as I had Biggio clearing 75 pretty easily...but most other people)
   23. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 03, 2014 at 06:02 PM (#4629474)
Yes, he was. And he still is an official scorer at Fenway.


Really? I thought he had to stop due to a conflict of interest. Thanks, good to know.
   24. dejarouehg Posted: January 03, 2014 at 06:05 PM (#4629477)
Not a big Glavine fan but it would be stunning and wrong if he was not elected. Getting those calls 6" off the plate is still b.s........and a tribute to his brilliance.

The author seems to have a man-crush on Glavine (All-American image!?!?)and I think engaging in a little revisionist history. I don't recall (which I recognize doesn't make it true) one episode of Glavine publicly repudiating steroids in any manner like Helling did. He only spoke of it as part of the bargaining process.

   25. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 03, 2014 at 06:09 PM (#4629482)
The author seems to have a man-crush on Glavine


Glavine's a local boy (to Scoggins and the readers of the Lowell Sun).

Didn't most people predict a shutout for last year? (not me as I had Biggio clearing 75 pretty easily...but most other people)


Before the Gizmo got running, not at all.
   26. villageidiom Posted: January 03, 2014 at 06:17 PM (#4629489)
Really? I thought he had to stop due to a conflict of interest. Thanks, good to know.
They now rely on a rotating team of official scorers, of which he is one. The Worcester Telegram had him as the official scorer on May 8 of last season. Not sure how that eliminates the conflict of interest, but whatever.

Here is an interesting interview BPro did with him a few years ago.
DL: Regarding any conflict-of-interest issues-do they exist?

CS: The editors think they do. I don't. While I've had my differences of opinions with players, there has never been one who refused to talk to me because he was mad at me about a scoring decision. If anything, the opposite might be true. A player might think that if he's nicer to me, he'll get a scoring break next time. (He won't.) I have always been able to separate the two duties and not let worrying about one affect the other. Whether or not they're nice or not so nice to me about a decision will never affect my next decision involving them. But I'll let you in on a little secret: If they want to think that way, it makes both my jobs easier, so I'm not going to tell them any different. Unless they read this, of course. Then the cat is out of the bag.
Also:
A couple of times my newspaper, The Lowell Sun, considered ordering me to give up scoring. The argument being used was pretty much the same at the other newspapers: If you tick off the players with a scoring decision and they won't talk to you because of it, then you can't do your job. Fortunately for me, the Red Sox in those days were a difficult club to deal with for all writers, and my argument was that sometimes the only time the players would talk to you was WHEN they were ticked off. Anyway, I always managed to convince them that by scoring I was devoting my full attention to the game, rather than walking around the press box chatting with other writers or hanging around the snack bar, and that guaranteed I was paying attention to my job. Also, I pointed out that many of the newspapers that stopped their writers from scoring had given them raises to compensate for the lost income. The Lowell Sun decided that ethics weren't nearly as important as money. So the paper has continued to let me score, making me one of the few active members of the BBWAA still doing it.
   27. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 03, 2014 at 06:58 PM (#4629519)
Bill Deane's...The 2014 Hall of Fame election forecast.

He went on Clubhouse Confidential and basically stuck to his guns.


I know Deane's been around forever and has worked for the HOF, but he's made some strange predictions before that really made me question his process. Blyleven got 74% of the vote in 2010 - Deane didn't think he'd get in the next year (he got 79% the next year). He also didn't think Larkin would meaningfully improve on his initial 51% despite the weak ballot (he got 62% his second year, in on the third). I suspect that if you compare his and Jaffe's track records it's no contest.
   28. calhounite Posted: January 04, 2014 at 10:05 AM (#4629774)
Glavine was Kirk Reuter with life-time tickets to the ump's ball. Like Reuter a lefty who did it with mirrors and the moon's gravitational force which give a little extra movement to lefy pitches. Pitched routinely outside with a mediocre fastball, change only, but unlike Reuter had another half foot to force the hitter to swing at his crap, since it would be called a strike otherwise. And brother did they hit the sucker. But ungodly lucky. About the luckiest babip in the business, which is understood to not be under a pitcher's control. But when things did go wrong, look out. Remember his getting absolutely mortarlized in a couple post-season, play-off games. Like Reuter, mediocre strikeout rate. A wins hog, which is the worst metric to go by, but, as usual,those guys are way overhyped.

Hof? Not even the best pitcher on his own team.
   29. Howie Menckel Posted: January 04, 2014 at 11:11 AM (#4629816)

setting aside that hyperbole, Glavine had a skill almost unparalleled - he could keep hitting the exact same damn spot over and over and over. Twas the spot that any pitcher might "get" as a strike, but usually the next pitch was better or worse, and called accordingly.

and his achievements were impressive and Hall-worthy, and not illegal (granting that he is barely above Schilling and Mussina, if at all, but all 3 belong).

   30. dejarouehg Posted: January 04, 2014 at 12:23 PM (#4629855)
Hof? Not even the best pitcher on his own team.


I can't stand Glavine and still don't understand your point. He pitches on the same staff with one of the top 10 pitchers of all time and that's his fault? Got new for you............he may have been the third best pitcher on his team. If the other 2 are Glavine and Smoltz, so what?

Whatever faults he might have endured in post-season play, his 95 performance overcomes them.

   31. Booey Posted: January 04, 2014 at 05:47 PM (#4630116)
Still there’s a very real chance no one will be elected by the self-appointed crusaders for the second straight year,


I'm glad we have the Gizmo to help assure us of how unlikely this is.

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