Chicago Sports Review: Numbers Game

Shades of Lem Banker!....An interview with Ken Ross, author of “A Mathematician at the Ballpark: Odds and Probabilities for Baseball Fans”.

You’ve cited research in your book that the idea of a “clutch hitter” or a “streak shooter” isn’t supported, statistically speaking, by the facts. Do you think that Alex Rodriquez believes that? Don’t you think that what we believe to be true (even if it isn’t) can affect our performance?

This is a morass. I believe in statistics, but I also believe in clutch hitters, I think, and streak shooters, streak bowlers, etc. for sure. After all, when what you’re doing is working, all you have to do is relax and keep doing it. But when it isn’t, then you experiment to get back in the groove. This is just what everyone says, except the statisticians. But in sports, like bowling, where the extraneous influences are minimal, there clearly are streaks. I think the streaks are in the other sports, but can’t be detected because of the “noise” in the system. The analysis of streaks is a lot more sophisticated than the elementary statistics that suffices to understand most of real life.