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Saturday, January 01, 2011

Chicago Tribune: Baseball Hall of Fame: Who gets in on Wednesday?

The Vicelords are back!...Or as icho1977 put it, “Oh My Gad, Chicago Tribune 7 ballots”!

Paul Sullivan, Mark Gonzales, Phil Rogers, Dave van Dyck, Fred Mitchell, Teddy Greenstein, and Philip Hersh.

Dag breaks it down

Full tally from the 7:

7 - Alomar
5 - Blyleven
5 - Raines
4 - Larkin
4 - L. Smith
4 - Morris
2 - Trammell
2 - L. Walker
2 - Mattingly
1 - Baines (but not from Phil Rogers, who finally decided to drop him)
1 - E. Martinez
1 - D. Parker
0 - everyone else (Bagwell, McGriff, Palmeiro, D. Murphy, K. Brown, Juan Gone, Franco, et al).

Key loco quote from Paul Sullivan…“The only four players who made my cut all had Chicago ties: Harold Baines, Tim Raines, Lee Smith and Roberto Alomar.”

Repoz Posted: January 01, 2011 at 10:52 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, history, projections, sabermetrics, white sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:30 PM (#3721419)
Zero Bagwell? Out of 7 writers? Did he cancel his Trib subscription back at Thanksgiving or something?
   2. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:37 PM (#3721423)
The only four players who made my cut all had Chicago ties


I mentioned this in the ballot-counting thread. The Trib (and Chicago sports people in general) are TERRIBLE, TERRIBLE homers. In many cases, embarassingly so.

That said, this is the first year that I remember this homerism extending to Tim Raines. So, as far as that goes, I guess that's a good thing.
   3. icho1977 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:39 PM (#3721424)
Missing two (2) mothers of the ballots: ESPN and MLB.com.

Ahhh And two (2) sons of ballots: Fanhouse.com and Milwaukee J S.

We await that they bring us this year..
   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#3721430)
And two Mattingly votes? I hadn't even noticed that. What planet are you on where Mattingly is more qualified than Bagwell?

Paul Sullivan is a sloppy writer:

I ignored some very-good-but-not-good-enough players such as Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Jeff Bagwell and Juan Gonzalez, who made a cameo appearance in the Mitchell Report.

makes it sound like all of them appeared in the Mitchell report.

Paul Sullivan's ability to judge baseball performance has to be questioned:

This was probably one of the weakest ballots in years, with no slam dunks.

Just wow.

But Dave van Dyck probably takes the award for worst ballot of this bunch ... and maybe any other we've seen: Alomar, Morris and Smith. That's something like the 3rd, 12th and 13th best candidates on this ballot. OK, move the latter two up a couple spots because he won't vote for Palmeiro or McGwire.

For those wondering about the impact of McGwire's confession, here's Phil Hersh:

The powers-that-be may have let Mark McGwire back into baseball, even if the belated and theatrically tearful confession of doping he made last January was as artificial as the statistics he compiled with the help of performance-enhancing drugs.
   5. shattnering his Dominicano G Strings on that Mound Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:51 PM (#3721432)
Well, Bagwell did play for a division rival that always seemed to come into Wrigley and smack the Cubs around. So, the homerism makes sense of the zero Bagwell votes. I think it's silly, though.
   6. McCoy Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:56 PM (#3721435)
I wonder if Mark getting back into baseball will cause writers to not vote for him at a greater rate than before. As a pariah he can get sympathy votes and become a cause celebre for some writers to rally around. But now that he is back in baseball I think perhaps some of those writers now view him as having his cake and eating it too.
   7. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:01 AM (#3721436)
This is why newspapers are dying.
   8. John DiFool2 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:13 AM (#3721441)
Going to put this here because this thread is one of the freshest.

Here are the WAR of the starting 1B for the Orioles 1999-2003/2006-2010 and the Rangers 2004-2010:

1.0 (Conine)
1.8 (Will Clark)
3.3 (Conine)
0.4 (Conine)
0.0 (Millar)
0.9 (Millar)
-0.4 (Millar)
-0.6 (Huff)
0.4 (Wigginton)

4.3 (Teix)
6.0 (Teix)
3.8 (Teix)
2.7 (Teix)
0.2 (Davis)
-0.9 (field)
-0.6 (field)

[I combined a few partial seasons when there was no clearcut regular.]

Not as easy to find good 1B as some seem to think. Granted that a more comprehensive study probably would be useful, but my point is that getting a very solid guarantee of 4-6 WAR at a position for more than a decade is a very valuable thing; most teams in any given year would kill for that level of value. Palmiero even looks good against Teix's years in Arlington; Raffy averaged 4.56 WAR from 1990-2002, a number which was equaled or exceeded exactly once out of these 16 seasons.
   9. icho1977 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:20 AM (#3721443)
The Newsday

Predic aspirations, I disagree on several, I think that Larkin and Morris spend 60 percent of votes.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/dissecting-the-baseball-hall-of-fame-ballot-1.2581008
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:23 AM (#3721446)
Phil Rogers thinks Bagwell's resume isn't good enough for consideration? (and Van Dyck doesn't seem to think Bagwell's are worth consideration--worse ballot ever--and that is saying something when you list Paul Sullivan's ballot)

(quick glance I think only four of the seven writers even mentioned Bagwell.
   11. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:31 AM (#3721452)
Not as easy to find good 1B as some seem to think. Granted that a more comprehensive study probably would be useful, but my point is that getting a very solid guarantee of 4-6 WAR at a position for more than a decade is a very valuable thing; most teams in any given year would kill for that level of value.


Number of seasons since 1990, WAR >= 4, 50% PA's at !B: 139

Or about 7 a year. I mean it's nice, but a quarter of teams are get that from 1B every year, it's just not that rare. And of course Raffy did frequently fall below 4 WAR in that period. That Texas had a bunch of chumps at 1B really doesn't make a difference.
   12. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:38 AM (#3721454)
For those wondering about the impact of McGwire's confession, here's Phil Hersh...

It seems pretty obvious from Repoz' running tally that the McGwire confession has had basically no impact at all; he has absolutely no chance of getting voted into the Hall by the writers.

I'm not that surprised. The thing about apologies and confessions is that the longer you take to them (especially after lying for so long), the less good they do for the penitent.
   13. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:46 AM (#3721458)
It seems pretty obvious from Repoz' running tally that the McGwire confession has had basically no impact at all


Actually, I'm starting to think that McGwire's confession is going to be a net negative for him. Repoz's tally has tended to overstate Mac's support every year by something like 10-15% (the old guys without columns seem to be more strongly anti-steroids). This year, I think Repoz's number for McGwire has slipped below his historical levels. If you knock 10-15% off of that, McGwire's down in the high single-digits and perhaps even in danger of falling off the ballot entirely (although I suspect that probably exaggerates how poorly he's going to end up doing).
   14. Tripon Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:55 AM (#3721463)
I hope Blyleven goes in, and I hope Morris goes in. Just to stop the ####### argument about them both.
   15. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:01 AM (#3721467)
Tripon, my point of view exactly.
   16. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:03 AM (#3721469)
Why is Phil Hersh still in the BBWAA, let alone get a Hall of Fame ballot? He hasn't written on baseball in decades. His Tribune bio alone reveals:

Olympic sports writer for Chicago Tribune since 1987 and Tribune Company since 2004. Have covered 15 Olympics -- 9 Winter and 6 Summer. Olympic (and soccer World Cup) coverage has taken me all over the world. I have reported from some 50 countries, including Iran. The beat encompasses Olympic politics (including such things as Chicago's failed bid for the 2016 Summer Games). My favorite part of the job: using sport as a way to write about the culture of a country or an athlete. I also do various non-Olympic-related features.



The same could be asked of Teddy Greenstein, who was the Cubs beat reporter before Paul Sullivan, but has been covering golf and college sports since 2003. His bio recites:

College football is my day job. I cover Northwestern and write about the Big Ten, especially if the word "expansion" is involved. I also follow Northwestern hoops, assist K.C. Johnson on the Bulls beat and cover golf. I write the "18 holes with ... " column, in which I describe the experience of playing a top course with a celebrity. (Feel free to hate me.) I've also reported from the Masters, U.S. Open, PGA Championship and BMW Championship for two years running.


Though the BBWAA has done a better job in recent years of welcoming in the Rob Neyers of the world, I think they would also be better served by some kind of procedure that monitors membership to ensure that they remain active in the game.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:05 AM (#3721472)
Number of seasons since 1990, WAR >= 4, 50% PA's at !B: 139

Or about 7 a year. I mean it's nice, but a quarter of teams are get that from 1B every year, it's just not that rare. And of course Raffy did frequently fall below 4 WAR in that period. That Texas had a bunch of chumps at 1B really doesn't make a difference.


ok, how about how many times players did it twice? three times? reliability has value. Health has value. Career has value. There is a reason you have to put up ten years(without special consideration) to be considered for the hof.

since 1980, Palmeiro is tied for fourth on the list among firstbaseman for seasons over 4.0 war(he's done it 8 times tied with Helton, McGwire and Bagwell are ahead of them) There are 20 first baseman who have done it 4 or more times in that time frame..

changing it to 4.5 Palmeiro drops to tied for 10th(5 seasons). changing it to war of 5, he jumps up to tied for 9th with 4 seasons.

basically since 1980 Palmeiro is one of the 8th-14th best firstbaseman in the game.

Expanding it out another decade and he's tied for 6th at 4.0 war, tied for 11th at 4.5, tied for 10th at 5.0. not sure how he isn't one of the 10 best firstbaseman in the game since 1970. Add in his career numbers and there is really no way he doesn't belong unless you really think that short peak guys like Giambi deserve more consideration because of their three extreme peak seasons, while ignoring that Giambi's career numbers is about the same as Palmeiro when Palmeiro reached similar number of plate appearances.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: January 02, 2011 at 04:21 AM (#3721579)
Why is Phil Hersh still in the BBWAA, let alone get a Hall of Fame ballot?

He keeps paying his dues. You have to write about baseball to get in; once you're in, keep paying the dues.

basically since 1980 Palmeiro is one of the 8th-14th best firstbaseman in the game.

Is that supposed to sound impressive? Given an HoFer pretty much has to put in 15 full-time seasons, you're saying he's about 10h best of 2 generations. If we're voting in 10 1B every 30 years, we need to be up to 40 1B already.

On the numbers, I'd say Palmeiro deserves it but you're doing a really bad job of making his case. You seem to be trying to make him some sort of peak monster.

Wouldn't the following sound a bit more impressive: among players with 60% of their games at 1B, Palmeiro ranks 7th all-time in career WAR, ahead of McCovey and McGwire.

6th all-time sounds a lot better than 10th in the last 30 years yeah?

Expand the search to 50% of games in LF, RF, 1B or DH and he's 23rd. Get rid of all positional restrictions and he's 70th ... which is starting to not sound so impressive but is better than 10th 1B of the last 30 years and is at least top 100 all-time on a comprehensive stat that controls (as best it can) for position and era.
   19.     Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 04:30 AM (#3721586)
Dave van Dyck's ballot last year was Alomar, Dawson, Smith. I suppose now that Dawson is in he decided to fill his place with ... Jack Morris. Yeesh.
   20. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 02, 2011 at 04:55 AM (#3721602)
Didn't Bob Verdi used to be part of the big Tribune ballot blow out?
   21. Repoz Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:02 AM (#3721606)
Didn't Bob Verdi used to be part of the big Tribune ballot blow out?

Yeah, Dag...I never got his 2009 vote either. He was down to being a contributing columnist at the Trib before going into the front office of a hockey team.
   22. oscar madisox Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:05 AM (#3721608)
Verdi doesn't work for the Tribune any longer. He works for the Blackhawks. He's their official historian. Before that he worked parttime at the paper and worked fulltime for Golf Digest and Golf World magazines. So he hasn't covered baseball for more than 10 years. Still has a HOF vote, though, I'm sure.

EDIT: Coke
   23. Ron J Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:29 AM (#3721622)
#16 He's still more qualified than Aislin

Yes, a political cartoonist has a vote.
   24. Repoz Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:42 AM (#3721626)
Why is Phil Hersh still in the BBWAA

It takes all kinds...why rock solid (firm ballot articles for many years) Paul Oberjuerge of the San Bernardino Sun...got dissolved and is now freelance soccer blogging from freakin' Abu Dhabi!

Yet...still has a vote.
   25. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 02, 2011 at 07:16 AM (#3721658)
Well, Bagwell did play for a division rival that always seemed to come into Wrigley and smack the Cubs around. So, the homerism makes sense of the zero Bagwell votes. I think it's silly, though.

Bagwell actually hit about as poorly against the Cubs as he did against anyone, not that there's anything wrong with .272/.390/.496. Still, the fact that he played against them so much makes the unanimous omission considerably worse than silly. I would lean toward "glaringly stupid."
   26.     Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 07:31 AM (#3721664)

Bagwell actually hit about as poorly against the Cubs as he did against anyone


So nobody (in Chicago) was afraid of him coming to town then. Thus, he fails the Jim Rice Test (tm)
   27. Tripon Posted: January 02, 2011 at 07:43 AM (#3721668)
I don't think your membership in the BBWAA is ever revoked. The hard part seems to be getting into the club.
   28. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 02, 2011 at 08:08 AM (#3721670)
So nobody (in Chicago) was afraid of him coming to town then. Thus, he fails the Jim Rice Test (tm)

I realize you're mostly kidding, but I wonder how Rice fared with writers from LA (.264/.305/.449), KC (.270/.330/.424), and Texas (.266/.328/.425), as opposed to New York (.330/.387/.582).
   29. cardsfanboy Posted: January 02, 2011 at 08:09 AM (#3721671)
umm, to be honest, the .272/.390 portion of the equation indicates that the cubs feared his ass. I mean that walk rate is ####### outstanding,


you don't walk a guy at that rate unless you are scared of him. Anybody that knows the Cubs and their concept of Pujols who is .293/.397....knows what the cubs fan fear. Heck by the standards set forth, the cubs feared Bagwell more than Pujols... if that isn't hof worthy, I'm not sure what is.
   30. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 02, 2011 at 08:28 AM (#3721680)
umm, to be honest, the .272/.390 portion of the equation indicates that the cubs feared his ass. I mean that walk rate is ####### outstanding identical to his overall career walk rate

Fixed. (It's still outstanding, of course. But the Cubs actually walked Bagwell almost exactly as much as everyone else.)

Regardless, the question is less whether the Cubs feared Bagwell, and more whether these particular sportswriters did. And while the walks may be an indicator of preexisting fear on the part of the team, they wouldn't inspire much additional fear in an observer, especially one who'd fill out some of these ballots.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: January 02, 2011 at 08:41 AM (#3721685)
you don't walk a guy at that rate unless you are scared of him.

Well, you need some adjustment for the Dusty years when the Cubs pitchers regularly walked a ton of guys while their batters didn't walk much. In his Chicago tenure, Dusty did really seem to believe that walks were bad for offense.

2003: 16th, 14th
2004: 9th, 14th
2005: 13th, 16th
2006: 16th, 16th

The Reds have been middle-of-the-pack
   32. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:18 AM (#3721690)
I don't think your membership in the BBWAA is ever revoked.

Obviously. That's my point.
   33. Ron J Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:56 AM (#3721694)
you don't walk a guy at that rate unless you are scared of him.


People weren't scared of Max Bishop. And he batted in front of 3 HOFers in his prime and still walked a ton.

People weren't scared of Lance Blankenship. Still walked a ton.

People weren't scared of Dave Magadan. Still walked a ton.

People ... you get the picture.

Plate discipline is a skill. It's often related to hitting for power, but there are always walks available. Nobody in their right mind would choose to walk the 23 year old Tim Raines if they could avoid it. Still drew 97 walks.

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