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8.3 IP
21 H
5 W
7 K
16 RA
15 ER
16.20 ERA
.568 BABIP
The man is serving batting practice. I guess I could take some solace in DIPS theory, but numbers that extreme .. . . he's serving batting practice out there.
91 IP
106 H
38 W
50 K
64 RA
61 ER
6.03 ERA
That's the Jason Marquis we all expected when Hendry signed him to that big 3 year $20 million deal.
Feh. I know you're speaking with tongue in cheek (combined with wishful thinking), but Marquis is, believe it or not, only a year and a half older than Rich Hill. (Seems like he's been around forever.) He doesn't even get the benefit of the "veteran experience" aura.
back of the rotationguy until the end of JuneHe wasn't back of the rotation. He was flat-out good. After his July 1 victory over Milwaukee he had an ERA of 3.31 in 100.7 IP.
131.3 IP
174 H
30 HR
85 R
83 ER
54 SO
45 BB
Batters are hitting .329/.385/.554 against him with 14:5 SB:CS in that time.
Hell, Livan has allowed pitchers to hit .281/.293/.368 off him in 70 PA this year.
Game 3 could be one for the ages!
Yes.
Let's leave Steve Trachsel out of this. ;-)
Yes.
Except that the article doesn't say how they plan on putting both Soto and Hart on the roster.
If they put Ward on the DL for his thumb I can see Soto but how are they going to get Hart on the roster? Which pitcher would go to the DL to let Hart play?
Doesn't seem like "the four starters for the best-of-five NLDS are set." It seems like Lou really wants to go to a 3 man rotation and would really truly like to avoid sending Marquis to the mound.
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that if the Cubs are down 2-1, Big Z will pitch Game 4 on short rest. If the Cubs are up 2-1 Marquis pitches.
Like the Cubs would ever have a shortage of pitchers on the 60-DL (which double nicely as a loophole). Ha!
Prior, Guzman, Novoa... take your pick. Any of them will work as the loophole, IIRC.
It seems like Marquis is a guy who walks the DIPS tightrope, a right-handed version of Glendon Rusch. He stuff isn't great, but when he has good command of it coupled with good defense behind him and perhaps a bit of luck, he's fine. But since the ASB his BABIP has moved from the mid-.240s to the mid-.270s, and his command is out of whack. When he's bad, he's very bad.
Then, just as I'm ready to admit that Marquis isn't as bad as I and others had proclaimed him to be, he becomes the Marquis we expected... then resurfaces in some key in-season moments... then utterly craps out again as the Cubs straggle into the playoffs.
NOW - I find myself actually thinking Marquis on the playoff roster as a 10th/11th pitcher wouldn't be a bad thing. He can swing the bat a bit, if nothing else (then again, so can Zambrano...so how many 'emergency PH/pitchers' does a team need).
I'm starting to wonder if I died some point earlier this year and this whole Marquis conundrum is actually a very cleverly devised hell.
I seem to recall Marquis having a fairly high number of unearned runs in the early parts of the season.
Speaking of them, whatever happened to Novoa and Guzman. More so Guzman. He went on the DL and we just never heard about him again.
The Cubs had pretty good pitching throughout the year so I'm hoping they simply felt no need to rush these two young pitchers back to the team. I'm mildly depressed over the Guzman situation; he was awesome when healthy.
With Hart and Gallagher in the wings (and the faint possibility of a healthy Mark Prior) I would not be surprised if this were the case.
The Cubs trading a redundant/unnecessary player at the near zenith (or if not the zenith, at least the closest someone like Marquis has to a zenith) of his value? I don't think so... More likely, they'll wait until he posts a poor 2008, sign him to an extension -- THEN try to trade him, getting pennies back on the dollar.
Sort of, but it wasn't when he was Good Jason. He had 10 in the 1st half, but 9 of them came in a 5-game stretch from 5/29 - 6/20. That 5/29 start was really when he turned back into a pumpkin.
Well, right, but I'm hedging my bets--I wouldn't COUNT on him being that good over any stretch of that length in the future. But I think he's capable of putting up, say, a 4-ish ERA over a similar stretch. The second-half meltdown seems to be developing into a pattern, if it isn't one already. I don't know if it's a simple fatigue thing, or what. (I wonder if he'd be useful in long relief, given time to adapt to the role. He seems to have a similar repertoire [low-90s fastball, sinker] to Dempster, another failed starter who's become a reasonably successful reliever--difference being that Marquis has a much better health record than Dempster had as a starter.)
Steaming piles of crap everywhere should take offense at this.
Well, it's still a better idea than carrying Jose Macias as a "third catcher" was.
I seem to recall Marquis having a fairly high number of unearned runs in the early parts of the season.
Yeah, but his RA was still in the low 4's, which is solid mid-rotation performance. Of course, he had one of the lowest BABIP in the league at that point...
He seems to have a similar repertoire [low-90s fastball, sinker] to Dempster, another failed starter who's become a reasonably successful reliever
My thinking is that if we're going to be talking about Marquis being a problem, I'm not thrilled with the idea of Dempster closing out close games in the postseason.
Especially with how bad he's been recently. 7.90 ERA in Sept.; at least one run given up in 9 of his 15 appearances in the month.
Now, maybe this is one of those things he turns around right away and rattles off a 10 IP scoreless streak. But I'm certainly going to be clutching my chest and gasping for air any time he comes into a game this week.
EDIT: It's actually worse than this. 9.82 ERA in Sept. The HR really did him in this month: 7 in 14 2/3.
From the Sun-Times:
The Cubs got their traveling squad down to 31 players when they assigned pitcher Sean Gallagher and outfielder Sam Fuld to the Arizona Fall League and told left-hander Carmen Pignatiello he wouldn't be in the playoff traveling group. Assistant general manager Randy Bush said he told Fuld to stay sharp in case the Cubs have an injury and need another speed guy on the bench.
Yeah but, as we all know, it's not like a change is in the offing. I am instead, dissatisfied with Howry is still getting much higher leverage than Marmol - though Howry has done well in the second half.
Dempster is inked to a $5.5 million deal for 2008. He will probably close next season as well.
According to cubs.com's stats, his Sept. ERA is actually 9.82. He gave up 7 HRs in that stretch (15 games) while pitching only 3 clean 1-2-3 innings. He had only allowed 1 HR all year until Sept.
Wasn't Lou considering moving him into the rotation earlier this year? If he (Piniella) has lost confidence in Marquis and Marshall, then that might be an option he may want to consider next Spring.
Yeah, I left out yesterday's game when I was looking at the game logs on bbref. I actually already edited the original to reflect the real numbers (and even echoed your HR concerns).
Marquis wasn't on the NLCS or WS roster last year, but he was on the NLDS roster for some unknown reason.
I thought the same thing. I can't see Pie not making it - you want to have a pinch-runner on your roster and Lou really seems to like using a defensive outfield of Soriano-Pie-Jones to close out games.
Cedeno seemed to me to be a bit of a forgotten man. I figured it was between him and Monroe for the last position-player spot. I guess it comes down to how comfortable the Cubs would be with having to put DeRosa or Fontenot at shortstop.
I like that Lou's thinking about going with a 3-man rotation, although I don't think the timing works out all that well to do it in the first round (not enough off days). I wonder why Marshall isn't getting mentioned as a candidate. He pitched a nice two innings on Saturday that got his season ERA under 4. I would think the Cubs would have enough bullpen options that they could afford to put him on a fairly short leash, especially if they manage to get Hart on the roster somehow.
The Cubs have to be thinking about Marmol as a closer, although Lou has indeed been conservative about advancing his role. I'd love to see the Cubs package Dempster in a trade, but I don't think that will happen.
And it certainly won't happen in the playoffs, unless there is a plane crash involved.
Me too, Neil. Sorry if it was unclear.
I will be roundly boo-ed for suggesting this... The Cubs will have a bit of an excess of starting pitching for next season (with Hart and, to a lesser extent, Gallagher ready to contribute) and the FA market is extraordinarily weak on pitching. Chicago should move some starting pitching for bats.
But the Cubs are in the playoffs and I'm getting ahead of things. It's nice to see Rich Hill ahead of the more experienced Marquis.
I'm kind of expecting to see Marshall go this off-season.
Hendry, in the booth the day of the Zambrano contract announcement, said that the Cubs were unlikely to be active in the FA market but that they would be making trades this fall. If they are looking for bats then they will, indeed, have to move some reasonably valuable players.
I would be shocked if one of Marquis/Marshall (and I'm thinking it will be Marshall) isn't traded this winter.
That's the smart move. Potential starters inked/under reserve clause for 2008:
Zambrano
Lilly
Hill
Marquis
Trachsel
Marshall
Gallagher
Hart
Prior (if healthy. Yes, it's a BIG if.)
9 Starters, 8 if you don't include Prior. I'd trade Marshall and Trachsel simply because I don't see getting any return for Marquis. I realize it requires taking a chance on the rediness of Gallagher and Hart or on the health of Prior, but I think we can get some value for this. The only places to upgrade are at Catcher (If they aren't fully sold on Soto's readiness) or RF (If they can get something of real value for Murton + pitcher) or maybe CF (If they want to give Pie more time).
You really think Trachsel would draw more than Marquis? Man, that's harsh on Marquis because I can't imagine what you could get for Trachsel at this point.
I'm sold on Soto; I hope the Cubs are too. The other position that is potentially upgradeable is SS. I like Ryan Theriot, but I think he's best cast as a utility infielder. On the other hand, he's decent enough that it's probably going to be hard to find a really good replacement (Tejada?).
Did the club option on Trachsel fpr 2008 automatically kick in when he was traded? Because otherwise I can't imagine that the Cubs will do anything but pay the $100K buyout.
Marquis would get return in a package. He threw over 190 IP and went 12-9. He's pricey but not too badly so, and the Cubs are usually willing to take salary in return.
Rocky Cherry and Scott Moore.
Well, Hendry can't trade with himself and I was kind of thinking that nobody else would make that trade - especially not after Trachsel's September performance with the Cubs.
---
Marquis should be off the roster for Hart, since Hart's shown he can pitch in relief. If they had to start him game 4, they should. Who suggested Marshall based off 2 innings of relief this weekend? Whether it's right or not (and I think it's right), he's not an option. If he was, he probably would have started ahead of Trachsel this week. Either way, we should probably just stop bringing him already.
---
Have they announced the times of the games yet?
Come on, nobody would give a B prospect like Scott Moore for Steve Trachsel; not to mention adding a mildly useful arm to boot.
The Trachsel option is for $4.75 million. It's true that Trachsel only cost the O's $3 million this year but it's not out of the question that he's worth the option in this market. His time in Baltimore was 100 ERA+ though his collapse in Chicago resulted in a 91 ERA+ for the season.
I bet the O's found his performance in Baltimore to be a pleasant surprise.
As a Cub, however, his value is basically zero. I doubt Hendry is going to exercise the option just to swap him.
He apparently ran over Lou's dog. He seems not to even be in the discussion, though in my view he's clearly the best qualified candidate to start game four, if they're using a 4-man rotation.
Zambrano
Lilly
Prior
Hill
Guzman
Marmol
Howry
Wood
Wuertz
Eyre
Marshall
Ohman (yes, I know -- but I think he'll bounce back)
Trachsel - bought out
Marquis - traded
Dempster - traded
***
Unfortunately, there's a bit of a catch-22 at work here. If Dempster and/or Marquis sparkle in the playoffs, Hendry's much less likely to deal them, particularly if -- hold your breath here -- the Cubs win, like, the pennant or something. If they stink up the joint, well then, they might get traded, but it also probably means that the Cubs have made an early exit. I'm not sure how far this goes, but I think it's fair to say that our incentives for 2007 and our incentives for 2008 aren't perfectly aligned here.
I mentioned Marshall's two innings of relief which <u>lowered his season ERA below 4.00</u>. And if you're going to knock unrealistic options, what makes you think they'd give Kevin Hart his first major-league start in game 4 of the NLDS? And now I'm off to Daley Plaza.
I'm lukewarm on Marshall and like him better than Marquis, but I'm not sure if it would be a great idea to pitch three lefties with similar styles back-to-back-to-back in the playoffs.
So what're we looking at:
C--Soto, Kendall
IF--Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, (Cedeno?) (Fontenot?)
OF--Soriano, Jones, Floyd, Murton (Monroe?), Pie, Ward(?)
SP--Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, (Marquis?), (Hart?)
RP--Dempster, Marmol, Howry, Eyre, Wood, Ohman, Wuertz (Marshall?--I know, when pigs fly...)
I'd say Fontenot and Monroe are probably out, along with maybe Ward (which would suck) and one of the relievers.
Rightly or wrongly, I think Lou sees Marshall as a poor man's Lilly or Hill (and there certainly are some similarities) and is reluctant to start three consecutive lefties-with-decent-fastballs-and-good-to-excellent-curves. This is also why I expect Marshall to be traded in the offseason.
It makes me excited to talk about the Cubs but I don't know what there is for the near-present to talk about.
I'm lukewarm on Marshall and like him better than Marquis, but I'm not sure if it would be a great idea to pitch three lefties with similar styles back-to-back-to-back in the playoffs.
I don't consider Marshall to be the same style as Hill and Lily (really, Lily's style is halfway between the two as Marshall's best pitch by far is his fastball) but his left-handedness is a real concern when mapping out the postseason pitchers.
As I see it, Marshall is buried for the remainder of the season. If the Cubs weren't interested in him during the stretch run they won't be interested in using him now. Strangely, I believe that Kevin Hart is more likely to make a start than Marshall yet I would be shocked to see him get the ball to begin a game 4.
And yes, I realize that I just said there wasn't much to talk about for the postseason and then proceeded to talk about the postseason.
IF--Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, (Cedeno?) (Fontenot?)
OF--Soriano, Jones, Floyd, Murton (Monroe?), Pie, Ward(?)
SP--Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, (Marquis?), (Hart?)
RP--Dempster, Marmol, Howry, Eyre, Wood, Ohman, Wuertz (Marshall?--I know, when pigs fly...)
I'd say Fontenot and Monroe are probably out, along with maybe Ward (which would suck) and one of the relievers.
Ward's got a torn ligament in his thumb/finger, so I don't know that he's going to be available. They sent him up to PH yesterday to see how he felt and he didn't look good or comfortable. Pie and Fontenot I think are locks. By my count, that's 22, so I think that leaves room for Marquis, Hart, and Cedeno.
Point taken. I'm not particularly enthused by him, but I think he's a better option than Marquis or (god forbid) Trachsel, whatever that's worth.
Hart is definitely an intriguing option, especially given how well he's pitched lately (well, all year), and the fact that, well, the D-Backs just aren't that good an offensive team.
Well, I don't think he's a clone of Lilly and Hill, but I do think he's similar. I'd rank their offerings, from best to worse, as follows:
Fastball: Lilly, Hill, Marshall
Curveball: Hill, Lilly, Marshall
Lilly's better than the other two at busting the fastball inside, while Hill has 3-4 MPH on Marshall. No one's curve is quite as dramatic as Hill's. I can't recall enough about their respective secondary pitches to rank them, but it seems to me that Marshall relies more on a slider than the other two.
Really, we should just combine them into one superstarter named "Marshilly."
IF--Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, (Cedeno?) (Fontenot?)
OF--Soriano, Jones, Floyd, Murton (Monroe?), Pie, Ward(?)
SP--Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, (Marquis?), (Hart?)
RP--Dempster, Marmol, Howry, Eyre, Wood, Ohman, Wuertz (Marshall?--I know, when pigs fly...)
I would guess:
C -- Soto, Kendall
IF -- Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot
OF--Soriano, Jones, Floyd, Murton, Pie, Ward
SP--Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis
RP--Dempster, Marmol, Howry, Eyre, Wood, Wuertz, Ohman, either Hart or Marshall
I suspect Marquis will be starting at least one game these playoffs.
Neither are likely, but we all *know* Marshall won't be starting in the playoffs. 100% beyond the shadow of a doubt know. And if anyone disagrees, you're not paying attention to what Lou's been doing with Marshall lately. I'm glad he had two good relief outings, maybe he'll be the 2nd lefty in the pen instead of Ohman. But considering he hasn't been used in a game that meant anything (or was within reach) since 9/15 and then a week or so before that (both starts, both horrible), there's little chance of him even being on the postseason roster. So by extension, that means it's much more likely that Hart will get his first start than Marshall getting the start. Follow? If he was going to make the roster, maybe he would gotten a shot in a close game or something, but it didn't happen. And Lou kept sending Ohman out there. It's not that hard to figure out.
Personally, I've never liked his stuff, at least not as a starter. His fastball isn't that great, and none of his other pitches are that good (or to be honest, consistent). I don't see why he couldn't convert into an effective reliever, but Lou had his chance to try him out and didn't. And like I've said a million times this season, I'm taking Lou's opinion over mine.
---
I like AR's roster, but since Ward's probably out that would have to mean Cedeno, IMO. I think they need another IF. And I don't think there's any chance of Marshall making it over Hart (but maybe over Ohman).
Assuming Marquis is on it(which I am), the last pitcher spot comes down to Hart/Ohman.
My money's on Hart and Monroe. I'd personally take Hart, Monroe, and Cedeno and dump Fontenot who's been awful for the last 3 months.
Yeah, this whole depth thing is kind of disconcerting.
I'm thinking both are ahead of Wuertz.
Assuming Ward is out, sure.
I didn't know they were going with 11 pitchers, but if Ward's out they would definitely want Monroe.
Not really sure why Lou's so down on him, but he hasn't gotten 19 batters out in one game since June. In his first 7 starts he actually averaged over 6 IP per game.
In fact, since (and including) his horrid start against Milwukee on 6/30, here's Marshall's line as a starter:
12 GS
56.7 IP
67 H
39 ER
33 R
23 W
30 K
7 HR
3-6 W-L
I don't have a calculater, so figure out the ERA on youw own. That's only slightly better than Marquis over the same time. If you adjust for Marshall's larger number of UER over this period, the gap narrows further. If you account for handedness, it's a toss up. That Marquis has been horrible lately tips it to Marshall, but let's not kid ourselves. He was a lousy starter for the second half of the year. He had lousy control, couldn't strike many men out, allowed a bunch of hits, and homers, and had no durability whatsoever.
The main difference between him and Marquis is that one guy began the year with the approval of this community, and the other didn't.
Marquis sure wasn't a popular signing but who was that high on Marshall? He sure exceeded my expectations.
Let's also not forget that 1) Marquis has stumbled in the past few days while Marshall basically hasn't screwed up in a month due to playing time (so neither option is particularly desireable) and 2) Marshall ended the regular season with an 18 point advantage in ERA+ and far fewer innings pitched. Marquis' advantage is working deeper in games (or getting trusted deeper - I've been puzzled by Lou's very quick hook when Marshall seemed to be doing just fine) which has a reduced value because of the extra time off in the postseason and because the Cubs have an excellent pen. If Jason Marquis projects to give you an extra inning of 5.00 ERA baseball then no thank you.
Except for his last two starts, both in September. But we've gone over this before.
---
I'm starting to feel like I'm being negative, or at least coming across as negative. So I'm going to start going back to happy thoughts. If that means I'm wearing too much clothes, so be it.
No, I hadn't forgotten those. I pulled a time period out of my butt to illustrate that he hasn't had the opportunity to screw up for a little while so he seems less likely to wet the bed than Marquis who screwed up just the other day. This fact doesn't make Marshall any better of an option but it makes him seem preferable.
If I were running the team, I'd just tell Lou to sweep the DBacks to obviate the fourth starter issue.
Not that I think it's likely to change the schedule, but I think they want to wait until all teams are known before deciding.
Well, we're talking about a 4th starter who I think would be matched up against Livan Hernandez, who's put up ERA's over 6 in three of the last four months. Game 4's likely to be a slugfest. I'm not saying that Marshall's some great stud, but if he's ever-so slightly better than Jason Marquis, then he's a better option as the game 4 starter.
I have to agree with Pops on this one. I know I'm shilling for Marshall in this thread and, honestly, even I'm relatively unimpressed with him. I'm not entirely sure how he managed to pitch 103 innings at a 117 ERA+ (he beat both Zambrano and Hill, who both had 116).
I like this idea.
Yeah, I'm glad that Z and Lily are going short rest. Rich Hill seems too fragile (not exactly the word I want) to use that way so I think it's for the best.
I assume Marquis will still be on the NLDS roster.
Perhaps I overstated. People (including self) openly scorned Marquis from the word go. I never heard anyone mind Marshall much.
I thought I had read that Livan was likely to start Game 3 against Hill with Owings or Webb on short rest pitching in Game 4.
No, I hadn't forgotten those. I pulled a time period out of my butt to illustrate that he hasn't had the opportunity to screw up for a little while so he seems less likely to wet the bed than Marquis who screwed up just the other day. This fact doesn't make Marshall any better of an option but it makes him seem preferable.
Fair enough, but since there's got to a be a reason for that lack of activity (and who has an idea what that could be) and I'm on record for trusting Lou, I'm just going to have to assume there's something beyond his ineffectiveness.
Of course, I also support your suggestion that the Cubs just sweep.
I don't know if I'd assume that, but I guess I'm definitely hoping it means that he isn't. I would prefer Marshall on the roster over him, if only for the chance of a LOOGY appearance. And Hart should definitely be in ahead of Marquis.
I'm ok with this. I think the Cubs have a very good chance to take (at least) a 2-1 lead in the series going into Game 4. They ought to be able to win at least one in AZ and they have a better than even shot of winning Game 3 (if Livan is indeed the Game 3 starter). Being up 2-1 going into Game 4 would be huge because it would give the top 2 guys both a shot to win the final game (if necessary). If they can win it in 4, then it'll let Lou go with Lilly in Game 1 of the NLCS and Z in Game 2 (on regular rest, I believe).
The Cubs outscored the D-Backs on the season 752 - 712
The Cubs allowed fewer runs than the D-Backs on the season 690 - 732
The Cubs outscored the D-Backs in head-to-head play 19-18
As they did against everyone else, the D-Backs outplayed their Pythag against the Cubs and won the season series 4-2
The two Cubs pitchers to win games against the D-Backs this season were Marquis and Marshall.
How's that work with days off? I thought it was G1, G2, Off, G3, G4, off, G5? In that scenario Lilly would have normal rest.
That's what I thought, too, which makes it even better.
Game 3 will be at 5 CT. Game 4 and 5 TBD.
Nothing official until the winner of today's game is finalized.
Also, NLCS tickets go on sale Thurs. at 10am.
Ya can't rebuild without bricks...and the O's are short of bricks that aren't named Tike Redman and Scott Moore.
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