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Monday, April 09, 2012

Chimelis: With Sunday’s lineup, Bobby Valentine declares a true New Order with the Red Sox

Good luck, Bill! Looking forward to that book on the “Servant Girl Annihilator”!

Mark down April 8, 2012 as the day the sabermetrics era ended with the Boston Red Sox.

Also eradicated was Terry Francona’s practice of alerting players a day in advance that they would get a day off.

It’s a New Order in Boston, and not just a new batting order. Sunday was the worst day in Carmine the Computer’s baseball career, and not the best for stats maven Bill James, either.

...The lineup Sunday also signaled the end of allegiance to the team’s reliance on advanced statistical data, which has been a Red Sox trademark for years.

Nick Punto played third and hit leadoff, his .169 career average in that spot notwithstanding.

Valentine is relying heavily on his own instinct and experience. He said he almost never takes into account a player’s history in a particular spot of the order.

“I think Nick will hit .260 (at leadoff), so he’s got a lot of hits coming,’’ Valentine said.

“I want to see what it looks like. He’s a sparking type of player, a battler.’‘

Repoz Posted: April 09, 2012 at 05:38 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: history, red sox, sabermetrics

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1. Walt Davis Posted: April 09, 2012 at 05:58 AM (#4100816)

Grrrr.

2. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: April 09, 2012 at 06:03 AM (#4100819)

Look at me! I'm an idiot!

3. Benji Posted: April 09, 2012 at 06:26 AM (#4100822)

Poor V. I can't imagine him winning anything with that pitching. And blame him for where he hits Punto, but he didn't sign him.

4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 09, 2012 at 07:42 AM (#4100831)

Valentine is relying heavily on his own instinct and experience. He said he almost never takes into account a player’s history in a particular spot of the order.

Statistically, of course, this is the right thing to do.

I don't like Punto leading off, but the Red Sox should not be leaning on Kevin Youkilis to play 150 games. He should be resting once a week, at least, and Nicky Punto is the backup 3B on this club, so that means he'll play. I think the bench needs a four corners type, and he could spell Youkilis with FB pitchers on the mound, but the roster as constructed means LNP gets regular starts.

5. JE (Jason Epstein)

Posted: April 09, 2012 at 08:06 AM (#4100834)

Anyone evaluating whether or not sabermetrics is still being applied in the Boston lineup must cite batting average in making his/her case.

6. karlmagnus Posted: April 09, 2012 at 08:06 AM (#4100835)

They need to bring up Anderson, Lavarnway and Iglesias ASAP, and probably Middlebrooks The current lineup is too thin beyond the top 3-4 to get anywhere, with poor defense. The only way the Sox win anything is if their prospects play and take off to their best-case potential. It's about a 1 in 4 chance of reaching the postseason, but it's better than the zero chance with the current bunch and it would be much more fun to watch.

7. TerpNats Posted: April 09, 2012 at 08:22 AM (#4100840)

"And it almost worked, if it hadn't been for those darned kids (Cabrera and Avila)!"

8. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: April 09, 2012 at 08:28 AM (#4100843)

Complaining about the offense after a 12 run game? #donteverchangekm

9. Nasty Nate Posted: April 09, 2012 at 08:44 AM (#4100849)

#donteverchangekm

I assume his prediction for each of the past 8 years applies again to this year: 80-85 wins and John Henry's hedge funds will lose so much money that the Sox will have to slash payroll....

10. Double-Spin Mechanic Posted: April 09, 2012 at 10:15 AM (#4100922)

My question is why uber-scrappy all-glove Punto plays 3b with offense-first (well, maybe not offense-first, but certainly defense-last) Mike Aviles playing short. Why not Punto at short and Aviles at third?

I mean, once you've decided that Punto is playing, why not put him at the premium defensive position?

11. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 09, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4100925)

My question is why uber-scrappy all-glove Punto plays 3b with offense-first (well, maybe not offense-first, but certainly defense-last) Mike Aviles playing short. Why not Punto at short and Aviles at third?

I mean, once you've decided that Punto is playing, why not put him at the premium defensive position?

Aviles is not a bad defender at shortstop and he is a terrible defender at third base. While Punto is the superior defensive shortstop the Sox are probably better overall with Aviles SS/Punto 3B than they are with Punto SS/Aviles 3B.

12. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2012 at 10:23 AM (#4100929)

The lineup Sunday also signaled the end of allegiance to the team’s reliance on advanced statistical data, which has been a Red Sox trademark for years.

Nick Punto played third and hit leadoff, his .169 career average in that spot notwithstanding.

Wuh wait ... is this the "advanced statistical data?"

13. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: April 09, 2012 at 10:23 AM (#4100931)

Signing Punto was fine--starting him, well, that's a different issue.

I'm in the "lineup doesn't matter" camp, but that is warring with the icepick-in-the-eye of Punto leading off.

14. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 09, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4100942)

Just to put some numbers on #11 here are UZR/150 at each position for the players in question;

3B:
Punto +19.0
Aviles -17.7

SS:
Punto +18.1
Aviles +12.4

15. Dale Sams Posted: April 09, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4100978)

Yeah, I thought the more statisticlly inclined *ignored* lineup spot batting average.

16. zack Posted: April 09, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4100986)

But that positive SS rating is built almost entirely on his 2008 season (60% of his innings at SS). And the negative 3B rating is based on 422 innings across 4 seasons. I think you have to believe that Aviles, once acclimated perhaps, is an average-fielding 2B/3B and a slightly below average SS.

17. Jason Michael(s) Bourn Identity Crisis Posted: April 09, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4101119)

Aviles seems to perform terribly as a utility player. He may have the physical tools to be adequate at any of the "skill" infield positions, but maybe can't quite handle being bounced around a lot. He's most familiar with shortstop and if you leave him alone there, he won't kill you. Punto is just an excellent glove to plug in anywhere, and I think using that flexibility to allow Aviles to find consistency with the glove (and bat, perhaps) is the smart play.

18. Dale Sams Posted: April 09, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4101151)

Punto is also 34 and that scrappy dirt dog slide headfirst into first bit is going to get him hurt sooner than later, and then we'll have Iglesias-Aviles-Youk.

19. JJ1986 Posted: April 09, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4101154)

Aviles seems to perform terribly as a utility player. He may have the physical tools to be adequate at any of the "skill" infield positions, but maybe can't quite handle being bounced around a lot. He's most familiar with shortstop and if you leave him alone there, he won't kill you. Punto is just an excellent glove to plug in anywhere, and I think using that flexibility to allow Aviles to find consistency with the glove (and bat, perhaps) is the smart play.

But if Iglesias is ever ready, wouldn't the team want Aviles to be prepared to be a utility guy? He's a much more valuable asset than Punto is and should be the one kept in that role.

20. villageidiom Posted: April 09, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4101177)

I think you have to believe that Aviles, once acclimated perhaps, is an average-fielding 2B/3B and a slightly below average SS.

Well, we're not talking about Aviles getting acclimated. We're talking about giving Youk a day off here and there.

Given the current usage trajectory we should assume Aviles will be getting acclimated to SS - and getting the benefits you suggest - but getting no more acclimated to 3B than he currently is. If so, then Punto is by far the better fielder at 3B, and only slightly better than Aviles at SS.

21. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: April 09, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4101229)

Nick Punto fWAR 2009-2011: 4.9
Mike Aviles fWAR 2009-2011: 1.1

Selective endpoint, in that Aviles makes up some ground if we go to 2008 thanks to his 4.4 WAR vs Punto's 2.7, and you can make the argument that Aviles is more valuable going forward due to age and skillset, but while I cannot stand Punto as a regular player he's a very solid utility guy with a lot of versatility. And Bobby V loves his versatile players, see e.g. Super Joe McEwing.

22. Repoz

Posted: April 09, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4101465)

Bump for The D.A.

23. The District Attorney Posted: April 09, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4101538)

Yeah, sorry :-)

24. Jason Michael(s) Bourn Identity Crisis Posted: April 10, 2012 at 06:09 AM (#4102429)

But if Iglesias is ever ready, wouldn't the team want Aviles to be prepared to be a utility guy? He's a much more valuable asset than Punto is and should be the one kept in that role.

I'm not sure what Aviles' contract status is. Is he an arb1 guy this offseason? If so, I doubt Iglesias gets called up until September, regardless of how he performs in AAA, unless there is an injury. Then they have an offseason to decide whether to keep Aviles and what role to prep him for. I don't think you make your starter at SS bounce around until he loses his job.

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Chimelis: With Sunday’s lineup, Bobby Valentine declares a true New Order with the Red Sox

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