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Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Chipper, Vlad, Hoffman, Thome in Hall of Fame | MLB.com

Maybe I care a little.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:02 PM | 135 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1. dejarouehg Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5612873)
A little surprised to see Mussina's final tally. Perhaps it's fate the Edgar and Mariano go in together next year.
   2. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:14 PM (#5612878)
Edgar is 20 votes shy, and I think there were at least 20 ballots with 10 names on it that didn't have his.
I'd like to think with 4 people going in this year and only one surefire HOF vote (Rivera, given that Hoffman got in) and one borderline (Halladay) being added in 2019, I think Martinez goes in and maybe even Mussina with him.
   3. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:14 PM (#5612880)
This four-person class, with Edgar above 70%, has to be considered very good news for those worried about the logjam of the last several years.

Edgar needed 20 more votes to get in, and would seem to be in great shape for 2019.
Mussina made a lot of progress this year, going from 51.8% to 63.5%. Of the ~250 votes revealed ahead of time, about 18 of them were voters who voted for a full ten, but did not include Mussina. This includes multiple voters who voted for him last year, but dropped him this year, presumably because they ran out of room at the bottom of their ballot.

In both cases, next year seems like the first time in a long time that the number of strong 1st-year candidates slows down:

2019: Rivera, Halladay, Helton, Pettitte, Berkman (McGriff and Edgar's last years on the ballot)
2020: Jeter, Giambi, Abreu (Walker's last year on the ballot)
2021: Tim Hudson and Torii Hunter seem like the only new candidates with even a chance of getting 5%.

Basically,unless I am misreading the chances of the next three years of new candidates beyond Rivera, Jeter, and maybe Halladay, the ballot is going to clear out very quickly now.

The real question of the next three years will be: Most voters will have enough room on their ballot to comfortably vote for everybody they'd like...so will 75% of them go for Bonds and Clemens by Year 10?
   4. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:16 PM (#5612884)
2 guys I would have voted for (Jones and Thome) and two that I wouldn't, but can't get too upset about.
   5. The Duke Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:20 PM (#5612889)
Edgar is a cinch next year. Mussina will be close, he’s now a serious candidate. Congrats to Larry walker and Omar and hope they vault into 50s next year. And I’m excited Chris carpenter got two votes - he wasn’t a hall of famer due to injury but he had hall of fame talent and pitched one of the greatest playoff games ever against halladay
   6. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:23 PM (#5612892)
The logjam is over unless you're both big hall and ok with steroids. It's a decent but not great class next year. Mo will get in. Halladay probably shouldn't be a first ballot guy, but he was talked about as one when he was playing, so he's probably in. Otherwise Pettitte probably gets in the 20s and Helton maybe gets 10%. Berkman, Oswalt and Tejada probably all fail to hit 5%. Nobody else is worth mentioning.
   7. dejarouehg Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:31 PM (#5612896)
Helton is going to be interesting. If he only garners 10%, then that's probably the kiss of death for Colorado players forever after.
   8. BDC Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:31 PM (#5612897)
I like to keep track of Hall of Famers I've seen play, but haven't updated the list in a while. This year's class is 50/50. I certainly don't remember ever seeing Hoffman, though it's technically possible he came in to save an interleague game I saw in Texas at some point. Chipper I know I never saw in person.

Thome, though, several times, though I remember him better as a White Sock or even a Twin than as an Indian. And Vlad, often, as Angel (he was one of my favorite visiting players) and for one year as a Ranger.

Congratulations to all.
   9. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:33 PM (#5612899)
Chippergors first ballot. Andruw makes the 5% cut for another year. I’ll take it, closer silliness notwithstanding.
   10. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:40 PM (#5612904)
Here's a question for folks. For the sake on conversation, assume the following:

- Edgar gets in next year (excellent chance, but either way, it's his last year on the ballot);
- Mussina gets in, or gets damned close, and then makes it in 2020;
- Rivera easily gets in in 2019; Jeter easily gets in in 2020;

If you buy the above, which of the following do you think are likely to happen?

1) Schilling (51.2% in 2018, four years left) makes a big move in 2019, gets into the 60s, and his election becomes inevitable;
2) Bonds and Clemens keep gaining 2-5 points a year, get into the low 60s in 2019, and we get to their final year of eligibility in 2022 with both of them in the high 60s, with the big drama of whether or not they can get the final push in year 10. People see their "punishment" being that both all-time greats had to wait the full ten years to get their day in the sun;
3) Bonds and Clemens, with a cleared-out ballot, make big progress in 2019, and their election becomes less dramatic in either 2020 or 2021;
4) Vizquel, with a strong first-year showing and a cleared-out ballot, zips up from 37% into the 60s next year, then gets in around 2020 (this is pretty much what Aparicio did between 1982-1984);
5) One or more of the following five guys who are low on the returning ballot, but have varying amounts of time on their side, become a sneaky-strong candidate with the cleared-out ballot, and become one of the "stories" of the 2019 ballot results: Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, Scott Rolen;
6) One or more of Helton, Pettitte, and Berkman are much stronger first-year candidates than most people think they'll be;
7) Halladay gets more than 50% of the vote in his first year on the ballot.

   11. JJ1986 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:40 PM (#5612905)
heh.
   12. The Duke Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:42 PM (#5612907)
There are a number of guys who will sop up space for years to come: mussina, schilling, vizquel, rolen a Jones, Kent, Sheffield etc. I don’t think he log jam is over yet - lots of mid tier candidates will now get their due
   13. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:47 PM (#5612912)
Congratulations to the first Hall of Famer who has worn the uniform of Great Britain. Disappointed that Edgar didn't make it, but I think he will next year.
   14. dejarouehg Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:50 PM (#5612913)
Has there ever been a HoF class where a pitcher was inducted along with the batter who notoriously owned them (a la (potentially) Mariano & Edgar)?
   15. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:52 PM (#5612916)
#10: it's hard for me to see Bonds or Clemens making a big move. Clemens only picked up 3 votes, Bonds none. The percentage increase comes from 20 fewer votes being cast.
   16. bachslunch Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:54 PM (#5612918)
@10: Halladay getting over 50% his first year seems the most plausible. In fact, I think he’s likely to be elected first ballot.
   17. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 24, 2018 at 07:56 PM (#5612921)
I cannot express how happy I am about Edgar's total. I've probably watched more of his at-bats than any ballplayer, and though I acknowledge that he's probably borderline as a DH, my heart sings a little bit at the idea of his induction.

Mussina's rise is good news, too. Though one does wonder where he'd be if Clemens and Bonds weren't the poster boys of their allegedly corrupt generation. Either way, Mussina belongs.
   18. Al "Battery" Kaline Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:00 PM (#5612923)
Ditto. Even if #7 read "Halladay elected first ballot" I would still think it to be the most likely scenario of all seven. I think the 3 Stooges (Bonds, Clemens, Schilling) are all cooked gooses, though I think Schilling has a good chance of being voted in by the VC.
   19. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:04 PM (#5612927)
If you buy the above, which of the following do you think are likely to happen?


In order:

1) I think Schilling will ultimately be elected, if not in the exact way you outline. Is there a precedent for a player being kept out mostly because he's a dick?
2) I'm surprised that Clemens and Bonds have got as much support as they have, but I still see them both as likely VC selections in 10-20 years.
3) See #2
4) I have no love for Omar's candidacy, but I think this year's showing probably means something. If he waits around 10 years, he'll be facing an unfriendly electorate, but I wouldn't be surprised if he made it in 3-4 years.
5) Of those, I could imagine Rolen being the beneficiary of a Lederer-style Blyleven campaign, or Wagner looking extra good after the Hoffman induction. I think Manny and probably Sheff belong, but they're both black, poor fielders, and have varying degrees of difficult personality. Those all make their paths to election more difficult.
6) Pettitte might show strong early, and we may be being too cynical about the Helton candidacy, though I don't think either will (or should) make it.
7) I think Halladay goes in on the first ballot because of his concentrated excellence and tragic death.
   20. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:07 PM (#5612930)
Good choices, and hopefully Edgar and Mussina will make it in next year along with Mo.
   21. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:08 PM (#5612931)
I don't really understand why Schilling isn't getting more support. It's an entirely different reason than those who don't vote for Clemens or Bonds. I don't agree with many of Schilling's political views, but that has nothing to do with his performance on the baseball field. He's clearly qualified in baseball terms to be a Hall of Famer, and that's what he should be judged on.
   22. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:10 PM (#5612932)

The real question of the next three years will be: Most voters will have enough room on their ballot to comfortably vote for everybody they'd like...so will 75% of them go for Bonds and Clemens by Year 10?
I think it's safe to say that Bonds/Clemens are not missing out because of the 10-vote limit. There may be a handful of strategic voters who say, "These guys aren't going in anyway so I'm going to save my voting slots for players who may benefit," but no more than a handful. The vast vast majority of those not voting for them are stupid sanctimonious ######## people who don't want them in the hall. Those people aren't going to say, "Well, there are only eight other deserving candidates, so I guess I'll fill my two free spots with Bonds/Clemens."
   23. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:15 PM (#5612937)
I just looked again at Halladay's career, and I come away *more* bullish on his chances of getting well above 50% in his first time out:

- He is obviously a peak candidate, and I unfairly compare all peak candidates to Pedro. The reality is that you can have a peak not quite as high as Pedro's, and still have a heck of a peak career. Also, compared to Pedro, Halladay's peak seasons include about 300 more innings than Pedro's peak seasons. Pedro (surprisingly) has more non-peak seasons around his career than Halladay, but whatever.

- If we're going to celebrate the best pitchers of the last 20+ years, and Halladay is *not* good enough, then the list is going to get awfully short:

Glavine
Maddux
Randy Johnson
Pedro
Smoltz
Mussina?
Schilling?
Halladay?
Hudson?
   24. Al "Battery" Kaline Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:17 PM (#5612939)
21 - My guess is, of the voters who call the character clause on Schilling, very few actually do so on political grounds. However, in the process of blabbing his views on Twitter et al, he has said things that are almost universally offensive, regardless of beliefs. The rope/tree incident might be the biggest one. Whether a joke or not, it was a direct affront to the entire profession.

The Hall has commented that they view the character clause as an on-field issue, but they have not clarified the actual rule as such. Even if they did, I'm not sure the offended writers would be able to put all those slaps in the face behind them. Ideal? No. But people are people - in other words, human.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:24 PM (#5612940)
#10: 1) Yes but then I've considered Schilling's election inevitable for a while. If he had kept quiet, he and Mussina would probably switch places. Anyway, he'll be no worse than spitting distance of 60 next year, maybe as high as 65. Basically, he'll continue to progress about 10 points behind Mussina (until Mussina's final huge push over the line). I think the big jump for those two this year makes it most likely that Halladay will debut behind Schilling (call it 10 points just cuz).

2 & 3) I don't expect them to get elected by the writers. For it to happen, I think you need scenario 3 which is possible ... but I suspect they then stall out after a one-time big jump from "strategic" voters that now have room. But if those guys exist, they weren't willing to admit it -- I noticed only two voters in Ryan's spreadsheet who said they'd have voted Bonds with more slots; one of those also said Clemens.

4) I'll guess not. He strikes me more as a guy who will get stuck or slowly progress and then maybe have a big year kinda out of nowhere. That was the Aparicio pattern. If nothing else, I expect him to lose/stall on the Jeter ballot (like Rice did on the Ryan/Brett/Yount/Fisk ballot) then maybe get right back on track on the very weak ballot of 2021 (as Rice did). Anyway, 2021 is going to be the crazy year when a lot of things sort themselves out because of the weak entering class.

5) Rolen's the only guy down there with a shot. Kent and Sheffield went backward, Wagner's stagnated despite progress by Hoffman.

5A) On a related noted, earlier this year I suggested Kent might do exactly that. His decline this year has changed my mind. We saw a real separation in the backlog with Edgar, Walker, Mussina and Schilling (and Vlad and Hoffman obviously) making big progress and everybody else spinning their wheels or even falling back.

6) How strong are you talking? I think Pettitte's going to do pretty well and, over time and weak ballots, has a reasonable shot at induction. Helton could be Rolen. The guy coming up I think has a shot to do much better than we think is Hunter. He's a lesser Puckett which makes him a greater Andruw ... and regardless of what the fancy stats say, Hunter has 9 GG.

7) Right around there. He'll get in.

A caveat on everything ... votes per ballot has come down substantially more slowly than I expected ... we still seem to be over 8. If this is a new ethos among voters such that even the upcoming weak ballots maintain around 7 votes per, then I think every borderline candidate is going in and some from the not so borderline.

Ugh ... that 2022 ballot is going to be all about narrative. Super-clutch Ortiz and choking, cheating, nancy boy ARod along with the narrative of Jimmy Rollins and (probably) the sad case of David Wright. I put the over/under for articles focused on Ortiz vs. ARod personalities at 4.2 million.
   26. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:24 PM (#5612941)
I don't really understand why Schilling isn't getting more support.


The Schilling this is pretty easy to understand. He's following in the Mussina path of being a very good pitcher who was overshadowed by the four greats. And then he's docked by a bunch of people for being a dick. I can see disagreeing with this, but it's really easy to understand.
   27. Ziggy's screen name Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:25 PM (#5612942)
Jamie Moyer: 10 votes (2.4%)
Johan Santana: 10 votes (2.4%)


Ah yes, two perfectly identical pitchers.
   28. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:27 PM (#5612943)
Hoffman is a disaster. A compiler at closer who (as far as I can remember) got his teeth kicked in whenever he pitched in a big game.

No one else seems upset. Did everyone just accept this was going to happen or is there some element of his value that I'm just missing?
   29. Ziggy's screen name Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:33 PM (#5612948)
Not missing anything. Hoffman is a tragic mistake. But we all knew that the hall was going to make a tragic mistake, and so we're not shocked about it.
   30. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:33 PM (#5612949)
4) I have no love for Omar's candidacy, but I think this year's showing probably means something. If he waits around 10 years, he'll be facing an unfriendly electorate, but I wouldn't be surprised if he made it in 3-4 years.

Is this the long-held hope that new saber voters will ride in to save the day? FWIW, for the past few years he's tracked them, new voters have not voted particularly differently than the general BBWAA crowd. Ryan only identified 11 this year and yes, only 2 voted for Omar. But only 2 voted for Rolen, only 2 for Walker, only 1 for Sheffield and Santana and obviously not bWAR believers as just 1 for Andruw. They were big Bonds/Clemens voters this year though.

I believe this is the first year we saw a big gap between Walker's public and private ballots.

Before I forget -- congrats and thanks again to Ryan Thibs on doing a great job.
   31. bachslunch Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:38 PM (#5612953)
@28: Hoffman’s election was inevitable, and given the circumstances am thinking it’s good to push him in as soon as possible. Not the best player to get in, but there’s worse. I’d probably have voted for him and maybe Wagner with an unlimited ballot (and actually, you know, could vote).
   32. Sweatpants Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:38 PM (#5612954)
Hoffman is a disaster. A compiler at closer who (as far as I can remember) got his teeth kicked in whenever he pitched in a big game.
Hoffman has some disasters on his record (1998 World Series, 2007 one-game playoff), but he did okay overall in the postseason. Billy Wagner, whom I rate as Hoffman's superior, is the guy whose postseason record is almost shocking in how bad it is.
   33. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:38 PM (#5612955)
1) Schilling (51.2% in 2018, four years left) makes a big move in 2019, gets into the 60s, and his election becomes inevitable;
2) Bonds and Clemens keep gaining 2-5 points a year, get into the low 60s in 2019, and we get to their final year of eligibility in 2022 with both of them in the high 60s, with the big drama of whether or not they can get the final push in year 10. People see their "punishment" being that both all-time greats had to wait the full ten years to get their day in the sun;
3) Bonds and Clemens, with a cleared-out ballot, make big progress in 2019, and their election becomes less dramatic in either 2020 or 2021;
4) Vizquel, with a strong first-year showing and a cleared-out ballot, zips up from 37% into the 60s next year, then gets in around 2020 (this is pretty much what Aparicio did between 1982-1984);
5) One or more of the following five guys who are low on the returning ballot, but have varying amounts of time on their side, become a sneaky-strong candidate with the cleared-out ballot, and become one of the "stories" of the 2019 ballot results: Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, Scott Rolen;
6) One or more of Helton, Pettitte, and Berkman are much stronger first-year candidates than most people think they'll be;
7) Halladay gets more than 50% of the vote in his first year on the ballot.


Lots of good thoughts here. My take below:
1) I'm not sure about a big move but I could see another rise of 5-7% point into the high 50's. I think 2021 is the year for Schilling.
2) I'm guessing a number of small rises 2-5 % per year until miid-high 60's in 2021 and creep over the 75% in 2022. Ballot less crowded, time removed from steroid era is increased, and I have to think that the writers (as a collective) want to elect players (at least 1-2 per year, if not more when many candidates are viable). Not sure what else will be on the ballot as after 2020 there aren't any slam-dunk candidates for a couple of years (Ichiro in 2023 maybe, Beltran's deserving, but not nearly a slam-dunk candidate)
3) Could happen, but guessing #2 more likely than #3
4) There are a lot of voters that find Vizquel as an absolute no. He also did not do well on the first year ballots (which lean more sabermetrically inclined) I think he pulls a Lee Smith, rises for a couple years but gets stuck in the high 40's or low 50's. Will likely be inducted as soon as he hits the Veterans Committee Ballot a-la Jack Morris. He is the new Bruce Sutter, Jim Rice, Jack Morris (Lee Smith) candidate.
5) I think Rolen and Sheffield could be the next big risers with some additional support for Andruw, Kent and Sosa. One or two may make a move (say increase support by 7-10%) but 2020 is when the support will really take off for one or two of them.
6) Helton isn't as good as Larry Walker who's still languishing in the low 30's, Pettitte has PED's and he's behind Schilling, Mussina, Halladay and Rivera for sure and Berkman just doesn't quite have enough. Oswalt is another who could have some support, but likely ends up with a similar vote total to Jamie Moyer and Santana.
7) Very likely with a good chance of being first ballot. Him coming onto the ballot helps Mussina and Schilling (possibly not so much in 2019, but certainly in 2020 and beyond).

So by likelihood
7, 5, 2, 1, 4, 3, 6
   34. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:39 PM (#5612956)
But we all knew that the hall was going to make a tragic mistake, and so we're not shocked about it.

Thanks, that makes sense.

I'm very happy Vlad made it though.
   35. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:41 PM (#5612957)
Hoffman has some disasters on his record (1998 World Series, 2007 one-game playoff), but he did okay overall in the postseason.

Those are the appearances I was thinking of. You are absolutely right, upon review, that his total postseason record was fine.
   36. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:48 PM (#5612958)
No one else seems upset. Did everyone just accept this was going to happen or is there some element of his value that I'm just missing?
I'd say I was more resigned to him getting in than upset. However I'm not really interested in the HOF as long as Bonds and Clemens are on the outside.
   37. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:49 PM (#5612961)
Andruw Jones at over 10% of the private ballots is about the only thing I like about them as a whole. It seems as if a few voters, voted the way the did with Vizquel, claim his defense to be second to none (or at least second to Ozzie), were consistent a said the same about Andruw (and possibly lesser extent to Rolen)
   38. Ziggy's screen name Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:51 PM (#5612964)
What does Edgar's progress say about Helton and (eventually) Votto? He was a better hitter than Helton. Votto has an advantage over the other two, but he still hasn't had his decline-phase yet. Anyways, they're similar kinds of players, so I suspect that they each might yield information that is relevant to the other two.

Personally I still think Helton gets Coors-ed. (And I also don't think this is a tragedy. I doubt I'd vote for him if given the chance.) Votto is more interesting. I used to think that his walks would be underappreciated and he'd hang out in the 25% range. But Edgar is getting some BBWAA love (and Votto is still putting up 7.5 WAR seasons as a 33 year old).
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:53 PM (#5612965)
I don't really understand why Schilling isn't getting more support. It's an entirely different reason than those who don't vote for Clemens or Bonds. I don't agree with many of Schilling's political views, but that has nothing to do with his performance on the baseball field. He's clearly qualified in baseball terms to be a Hall of Famer, and that's what he should be judged on.


You make a comment about hoping the voters are lynched and see how far that helps your case. It's not political, it's that he is a dick, and every chance that they can find to not give him support they are going to do that.
   40. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:57 PM (#5612969)
Looks like the Today's Game Era Committee will go again next December. I'm wondering if McGwire will get any traction this time?

One can question specific inductions, but this year's large class of living honorees argue that the Hall's recent voting changes have had good effects.
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:59 PM (#5612970)
No one else seems upset. Did everyone just accept this was going to happen or is there some element of his value that I'm just missing?


Probably the best pitcher in the past 20 years with inherited runners, while guys like Rivera were living with the 29% inherited runners allowed to score, Hoffman was living at 20%.... (and best of all time if you remove 'loogies" from the equation who benefited from the guys after them.

Beyond that, no you really aren't missing much, his resume was being a good to very good closer for a long time, (probably one of only three closers in the history of the game, to put up 12 plus seasons of good quality)
   42. Lars6788 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:01 PM (#5612972)
What does Edgar's progress say about Helton and (eventually) Votto?


If Votto finishes out his contract with no decline, he's probably a 1st or second ballot guy - there is an inordinate love for the guy here and everywhere else.
   43. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:04 PM (#5612973)
What does Edgar's progress say about Helton and (eventually) Votto? He was a better hitter than Helton. Votto has an advantage over the other two, but he still hasn't had his decline-phase yet. Anyways, they're similar kinds of players, so I suspect that they each might yield information that is relevant to the other two.

Personally I still think Helton gets Coors-ed. (And I also don't think this is a tragedy. I doubt I'd vote for him if given the chance.) Votto is more interesting. I used to think that his walks would be underappreciated and he'd hang out in the 25% range. But Edgar is getting some BBWAA love (and Votto is still putting up 7.5 WAR seasons as a 33 year old).


Personally, I don't think Edgar's progress has much (if any) impact on Helton. As you say Martinez is a superior hitter (by a couple magnitudes in my opinion). Helton's going to be borderline, he has Coors effect against him, much of his Sabermetric - borderline qualities are the fact that he was a very good fielder at first. Different time on the ballot, maybe he starts slow, but could build a case. I'm just hoping he's not one and done as he is (to me) the definition of borderline.

Votto on the other hand, we need to see a decline. If he declines gracefully until his late 30's, he's Frank Thomas-lite with better defense, less power and possibly even more walks. If he's hit by a bus tomorrow he's pretty borderline, but could be extrapolated a-la Puckett and get in with ease. If he turns into recent vintage Pujols (albeit with more walks) he's going to borderline and could follow the Edgar path.
   44. PreservedFish Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:19 PM (#5612974)
9. PreservedFish Posted: September 10, 2007 at 04:14 PM (#2518282)
Thome does fail the "smell test" or "gut check" or whatever you want to call it. He doesn't feel like a HOFer and he never has. I don't think that it automatically kills his candidacy but it is an important factor, or would be for me if I had a vote.


Well. Couldn't have been more wrong about this.
   45. The Duke Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:30 PM (#5612977)
Interesting. Not looking at stats but Votto jumps to mind as one of the consistently best players of his era. On the eye test, he seems like a no-brainer assuming normal end of career
   46. bartap74 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:36 PM (#5612978)
[19] 1) I think Schilling will ultimately be elected, if not in the exact way you outline. Is there a precedent for a player being kept out mostly because he's a dick?


I think that's the theory on why Dick Allen was never inducted.

(Pun not intended).
   47. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:37 PM (#5612979)
Trevor Hoffman vacates the position of Best Reliever Not In, leaving Billy Wagner to take his place. Wagner might go from 11% to 61% in two years now.
   48. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:42 PM (#5612980)
Edgar getting in next year will not have much bearing on Votto's experience in the future...but I think it will help Ortiz get in on the first ballot. In fact, I think something helping Edgar's rise this year is the realization among some voters that they are obviously going to vote for Papi...but then how can they not support Edgar?

Hey, whatever - if it helps Edgar, then good for him. Happy that he broke 70% this year, and happy that Mussina seems poised to get in within two years.
   49. Cooper Nielson Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:43 PM (#5612981)
Jamie Moyer: 10 votes (2.4%)
Johan Santana: 10 votes (2.4%)
Johnny Damon: 8 votes (1.9%)
Hideki Matsui: 4 votes (0.9%)
Chris Carpenter: 2 votes (0.5%)
Kerry Wood: 2 votes (0.5%)
Livan Hernandez: 1 vote (0.2%)
Carlos Lee: 1 vote (0.2%)
Orlando Hudson: 0 votes
Aubrey Huff: 0 votes
Jason Isringhausen: 0 votes
Brad Lidge: 0 votes
Kevin Millwood: 0 votes
Carlos Zambrano: 0 votes

I think most of us would agree about who was the least likely candidate to get a vote (do we know who voted for Lee?), as well as the most deserving candidate to fall off the ballot.

Which of the 0-vote guys do you think is most deserving of a (single) vote?

I guess I'd give Millwood a slight edge over Hudson. He played longer and his best year was better. He was pretty good in the postseason (except for his World Series game), and has a little bit of black/gray ink. Zambrano had a higher WAR/JAWS and was frankly a better pitcher, but when you get down to the token vote guys (Tim Wakefield, Garret Anderson, J.T. Snow, Aaron Sele), I think it's more about "years of honorable service" and Zambrano doesn't do so well there.
   50. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:55 PM (#5612985)
I think Schilling will ultimately be elected, if not in the exact way you outline. Is there a precedent for a player being kept out mostly because he's a dick?

I think that's the theory on why Dick Allen was never inducted.
(Pun not intended).



Also, Dick Allen got curt treatment.
   51. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:01 PM (#5612986)
Johan Santana falls off the ballot and Trevor Hoffman gets elected.

Sure.
   52. Smitty* Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:01 PM (#5612987)
#14 - I’m pretty sure Sam Malone and Dutch Kincaid went in on the same ballot
   53. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5612988)
I think that's the theory on why Dick Allen was never inducted.
I also think that, especially at the beginning of his eligibility, there was a failure by voters to recognize how great his rates stats were. He started out with below 5% of the vote and while his candidacy never really gained momentum, he did rise to the high teens.
   54. villageidiom Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:13 PM (#5612993)
Did everyone just accept this was going to happen or is there some element of his value that I'm just missing?
As I said elsewhere, Hoffman might not feel like a Hall Of Famer to people who were asleep the majority of times he pitched. What proportion of his appearances were before 1:30 AM EDT?
   55. John DiFool2 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5612994)
Schilling [pre/post]: 60.1/38.5


Is there a precedent for a player being kept out mostly because he's a dick?


I don't really understand why Schilling isn't getting more support. It's an entirely different reason than those who don't vote for Clemens or Bonds. I don't agree with many of Schilling's political views, but that has nothing to do with his performance on the baseball field. He's clearly qualified in baseball terms to be a Hall of Famer, and that's what he should be judged on.

I just looked again at Halladay's career, and I come away *more* bullish on his chances of getting well above 50% in his first time out:

- He is obviously a peak candidate, and I unfairly compare all peak candidates to Pedro.


I am utterly mystified by Schill's public/private discrepancy, and his failure to keep up with Moose--correct me if I am wrong, but that almost certainly has to be the biggest spread since the tracker was started.

Small sampling of HoF jerks, ########, lawbreakers, cheats, and assorted miscreants:


Reggie
Gaylord
Sutton
Piazza
Robbie Alomar
Drysdale
Cepeda


Schill is unique in that completely off-field aspects are apparently, significantly, and adversely affecting his vote performance, and that is utterly unprecedented. Even Dick Williams got in after his indecent exposure incident, and the drug thing did nada to keep Cha-Cha out.

I am a liberal, and have found some of the shite he's said abhorrent, yes. As long as he jury rigs his ankle and goes out and beats the Yankees, I don't care. [and why has that little bit of mythology seemingly slipped by the wayside? It's about on the same level with Morris and Game Seven, right?]

Annnnd Halladay warping by him would be utterly ridiculous.














   56. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:15 PM (#5612995)
Johan Santana falls off the ballot and Trevor Hoffman gets elected.


They played different positions.
   57. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:18 PM (#5612996)
I don't really understand why Schilling isn't getting more support.


Well, because he's an arsehole.

If he's got people rallying for him for the hall(which undoubtedly he belongs) I think they should bring up the 3000+ K thing more often. 16 guys and only one(Clemens) besides Schilling is not in the HOF. That's pretty exclusive territory and even the dumbest baseball fan knows that striking guys out is far and away the best way to get guys out.
   58. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:20 PM (#5612998)
They played different positions.

Well, Hoffman did start out as a shortstop.
   59. The Duke Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:29 PM (#5612999)
At this point schilling has no chance. The private voters hate him. The best arguement for putting PED guys in is that by not doing it, you encourage writers to think it is ok to screw with schilling. I guess the vets will put him in. It’s hard to see dismissing him for some juvenile tweet. Petty people
   60. Lars6788 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:50 PM (#5613003)

Schill is unique in that completely off-field aspects are apparently, significantly, and adversely affecting his vote performance, and that is utterly unprecedented.


Social media allows him and everyone else to give their own instantaneous takes and reactions - that is what maybe unprecedented.

Everyone wants to say something including I - but sometimes the best option is not to submit / press send / Tweet.
   61. Adam S Posted: January 25, 2018 at 12:15 AM (#5613016)
At this point schilling has no chance. The private voters hate him. The best arguement for putting PED guys in is that by not doing it, you encourage writers to think it is ok to screw with schilling. I guess the vets will put him in. It’s hard to see dismissing him for some juvenile tweet. Petty people


More likely than not he'll get in. The clearing of the ballot and the electorate turnover should both be some help to him. As will the lean crop of newcomers on his last couple of years on the ballot.
   62. BABiP_Roberts Posted: January 25, 2018 at 01:01 AM (#5613020)
To me, the biggest outrage on this year's ballot might be Vizquel polling so close to Walker. It seems an easy test the writers could utilize to help determine whether their ballot is sensible or not is to imagine the reaction if one was traded for the other straight up during their primes. Imagine the outrage if after the 1999 season Larry Walker was traded for Omar Vizquel straight up? That's the only year the two were similar in value and it still would've been considered a huge mistake on behalf of the Rockies.
   63. bookbook Posted: January 25, 2018 at 01:05 AM (#5613021)
Schilling will go in. If he has to wait an extra year or two, I won’t cry. (The institution that couldn’t figure out how to induct Santo or Miller in their lifetimes has done much worse.)
   64. Walt Davis Posted: January 25, 2018 at 01:14 AM (#5613022)
(probably one of only three closers in the history of the game

"Closers" have only existed for 30 years. If you meant "relievers", leaving aside that Wilhelm was practically the first one anybody ever noticed, it is useful to remember that Hoffman's 12 quality "seasons" amounted to probably less than 800 innings pitched. Even ignoring his year as a starter, Gossage had about 1000 IP in 10 his first 10 good seasons as a reliever. (I think you also have a lower threshold for "quality closer season" than I do.) None of that is Hoffman's fault of course -- he was given a job to do and he did it rather well, not his fault it was a relatively easy job.

Schilling -- what's with the kvetching? On the 2016 ballot, he was at 52%, 9 points ahead of Mussina. He opened his big mouth and lost 7 points, basically switching spots with Mussina (now 7 points ahead). Now he's regained almost every vote he lost in his one-year debacle but did lose more ground to Mussina. From here on out, he'll keep moseying on up the ladder. Mussina probably hits something close to 70, maybe higher and Schilling will hit about 60. With weak ballots coming, he's got plenty of time -- if he keeps his mouth shut. If he hadn't opened his big mouth, he'd be where Moose is and Moose would be about where he is.

Schilling's totals: 39, 29, 39, 52, 45, 51. He ran into the Maddux et al buzzsaw but they still gave it all back even with Randy and Pedro on the ballot. To jump from 39 to 52 was pretty massive. Somebody mentioned the issue of private ballots for Schilling. We have no way of knowing if it's the same voters but he increased from 32% last year to 38% this year. His 38% this year is the same as what Mussina got last year. If that didn't spell doom for Mussina, I don't see why it would spell doom for Schilling.

I know a lot of folks here think Schilling should have breezed in but it was never going to happen and, once he debuted at 39%, folks should have realized it was going to take a while.

I think they should bring up the 3000+ K thing more often. 16 guys and only one(Clemens) besides Schilling is not in the HOF. That's pretty exclusive territory

As a strategy that's probably correct but 3,000 Ks just ain't what it used to be. It's true that only 16 guys have done it but 6 of them retired between 2007 and 2009. Another 6 retired between 1983 and 1988 ... and it's probably 7 if Ryan wasn't such a freak. Anyway, relative to his era, Schilling wasn't particularly special in this regard. (Now K/BB, he was outstanding.)

By the way, CC has a shot at 3,000 this year and certainly gets there with just a bit over one more healthy season's worth of pitching. Verlander has a very good shot to get there in a few years. Probably at least 3 of Greinke, Hamels, Felix, Kershaw and Scherzer will get there. Lester probably needs 6 healthy seasons (so age 39 at the earliest), Ervin Santana (!) maybe only 4, Sale is already half way there and he's not even 29 yet. The average 2017 starter had 8 K/9, the good ones usually a bit higher than that. 3200-3300 innings will be enough for most of these guys.
   65. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 25, 2018 at 04:46 AM (#5613030)
Helton is going to be interesting. If he only garners 10%, then that's probably the kiss of death for Colorado players forever after.

I don't know, a Rockies 1B who averaged 13 HR after the age of 30 doesn't seem like the kiss of death for anything. We've still never really seen the results of a premier power hitter (someone like Thome, Manny, etc.) playing the bulk of their career in Colorado.
   66. manchestermets Posted: January 25, 2018 at 06:58 AM (#5613034)
I don't understand why people are confused by Schilling's numbers. Has there been an election of any kind, ever, in which insulting the electorate en masse was a successful strategy?
   67. Adam Starblind Posted: January 25, 2018 at 07:10 AM (#5613035)

Small sampling of HoF jerks, ########, lawbreakers, cheats, and assorted miscreants:

Reggie
Gaylord
Sutton
Piazza

Robbie Alomar
Drysdale
Cepeda


You mean because somebody said he was gay?
   68. The Duke Posted: January 25, 2018 at 07:39 AM (#5613039)
66. Believe me, I can think of one
   69. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 25, 2018 at 08:31 AM (#5613041)
I like to keep track of Hall of Famers I've seen play, but haven't updated the list in a while. This year's class is 50/50. I certainly don't remember ever seeing Hoffman, though it's technically possible he came in to save an interleague game I saw in Texas at some point. Chipper I know I never saw in person.
Unless I missed someone, Chipper is the first Hall of Famer that I saw play in the minors. I think this means that I just became old as dirt.
   70. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 25, 2018 at 08:50 AM (#5613053)
A few fun facts/questions:

- Barring an unusual circumstance, the last player who appear in a 1980s game that will be on the ballot is Gary Sheffield (there are several others still on the ballot who played in the 80s, but their eligibility will expire before Sheffield)

- Moyer, Santana, and Damon were very good players - not HOFers, but some of the better players not to make it to year two. I was wondering what class of "non-5%ers" was the best group ever. One option: 2013. 1st-year candidates not to get 5% included Bernie Williams, Kenny Lofton, Julio Franco, and David Wells.

- Sammy Sosa seems poised to be one of the few candidates in history to stay on the ballot for 10+ years, but never get much above 10%. He got 12% his first year, and since then has been: 7.2%, 6.6%, 7.0%, 8.6%. Given the ballot is loosening up, he is unlikely to fall off of it, but it is hard to see him catching fire, either. Has anybody ever stayed on the ballot for 10+ years while always staying this close to 5%?
   71. Lassus Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:00 AM (#5613059)
I think this means that I just became old as dirt.

I thought Thome was going to be the first BBWAA inductee younger than me to be inducted, but looking it turns out that was actually I-Rod. (Griffey was very close).
   72. Rally Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:09 AM (#5613065)
If Votto finishes out his contract with no decline, he's probably a 1st or second ballot guy - there is an inordinate love for the guy here and everywhere else.


That's an understatement. If Votto finishes his contract with no decline the discussion is whether he or Pujols is the second best 1B ever after Lou Gehrig. That would mean 7 more years at his current level (6 guaranteed, and Reds pick up the option for his age 40 season). That Votto is a mid 90s WAR player, and would be close to 500 homers, 3000 hits, and top 5 alltime in walks.

I'd say there's no chance of that happening, but then again we just saw the career of David Ortiz. Ortiz did not have a bad year from age 34 to 40, and had at least 600 PA in 6 of those years, excepting his injury shortened 2012.

So maybe 5% chance Votto remains Votto for the life of the contract. As it stands Votto is value stat qualified as borderline (55 WAR), overqualified by rate stats, and woefully short by counting stats. If he retires tomorrow he probably doesn't make it unless it's for a reason that draws Puckett-like sympathy. If he turns into Pujols tomorrow and finishes out the contract as an albatross he doesn't make it. Seven great years and he's a lock. Where is the in-between line? I think Votto with three more great years makes it.
   73. Rally Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:13 AM (#5613068)
I thought Thome was going to be the first BBWAA inductee younger than me to be inducted, but looking it turns out that was actually I-Rod. (Griffey was very close).


Actually it's Pedro - elected two years earlier than Pudge, one month older.
   74. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5613069)
I thought Thome was going to be the first BBWAA inductee younger than me to be inducted, but looking it turns out that was actually I-Rod. (Griffey was very close).


Hadn't really thought about this... Looks like Vlad is the first BBWAA inductee younger than me.
   75. Rally Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:16 AM (#5613070)
- Barring an unusual circumstance, the last player who appear in a 1980s game that will be on the ballot is Gary Sheffield (there are several others still on the ballot who played in the 80s, but their eligibility will expire before Sheffield)


Vizquel played in 1989.
   76. Lassus Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:20 AM (#5613072)
Actually it's Pedro - elected two years earlier than Pudge, one month older.

I'll be damned. Always assumed he was older.
   77. Rally Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:23 AM (#5613078)
- Sammy Sosa seems poised to be one of the few candidates in history to stay on the ballot for 10+ years, but never get much above 10%. He got 12% his first year, and since then has been: 7.2%, 6.6%, 7.0%, 8.6%. Given the ballot is loosening up, he is unlikely to fall off of it, but it is hard to see him catching fire, either. Has anybody ever stayed on the ballot for 10+ years while always staying this close to 5%?


We know from the Bonds percentage that 50%+ of voters do not automatically disqualify a player for steroids (or suspicion). I think Sammy will benefit from actually being one of the ten best players on the ballot at some point. 600 homers or not, this was never the case in the years he's been out there. At this point due to the 10 player limit I never would have voted for Sammy I might next year on my mock ballot.

Let me see, 2019:

Mariano
Halladay
Bonds
Clemens
Edgar
Mussina
Schilling
Walker
Rolen

1 spot left and I've got to pick between Ramirez, Sosa, and Sheffield. Plus consider Kent and Pettitte. Not an easy choice, but at least I'll think about Sammy next year.
   78. , Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:39 AM (#5613090)
Johan Santana falls off the ballot and Trevor Hoffman gets elected.

Sure.


I think the writers mostly get it right with regard to who gets in but, in the pool of guys who don't make it, there are always some really bizarre results and this is one of them.

I really do think if I were a 22 year old with a great fastball I'd scream and yell and beg to be a reliever. They're overvalued financially, have increased odds at longevity (especially if left handed) and don't have to be half as good a pitcher to make the HOF. It's like being a backup catcher but people treat you like a star (okay, that's an oversell).
   79. JRVJ Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5613091)
I'm a little bit to comment, but here's what I think:

1. 4 inductees was the minimum needed to keep the line moving. Because of Ballotgeddon, a lot of discussions regarding the Hall of Fame became completely tactical.

To that effect, I don't particularly think Hoffman should have been inducted, but he was taking so much ballot real estate, and thus causing problems to down ballot candidates that I am happy he got in (with Chipper, Thome and Vlad).

2. I'm still concerned about next year's ballot. Mariano is a 1st ballot inductee and I think Halladay will be too. That's a lot of Real Estate there. Martinez will probably be inducted tomorrow (and if not, he's off the ballot). Mussina is getting very close.

That means that most ballots will have those four. Clemens and Bonds will still be in the high 50s/low 60s range, with Schilling close to them if he doesn't insult half the U.S. population in the meanwhile.

Of the non-Mariano/Halladay first timers, I could see a scrum forming around Pettitte, Helton and Oswalt, which gobbles up a lot of real estate.

3. I would love for Walker to get more love, but I think it's too late for him (though more support might help him in the VC).

The player I could see moving up starting next year is Rolen. Really, Rolen needed to survive more than anything this year, because he almost certainly will get a second look once there's more time to look at his candidacy carefully.

4. I still think the BBWAA is absolutely gutless for not challenging the HoF on the number of candidates per ballot, and on making ballots automatically public.

The number of candidates is going to be a slightly lesser issue going forward, but the damage was done already for Martínez (if he doesn't get in), Walker and (even if it was his first year) Rolen.
   80. TDF, trained monkey Posted: January 25, 2018 at 09:57 AM (#5613097)
What does Edgar's progress say about Helton and (eventually) Votto? He was a better hitter than Helton. Votto has an advantage over the other two, but he still hasn't had his decline-phase yet. Anyways, they're similar kinds of players, so I suspect that they each might yield information that is relevant to the other two.
Well, Votto isn't a DH, so he'll always have that over Edgar (which really seems to be what's holding Edgar back). Votto also won't play at Coors as his home field, which is what's holding Walker (and you have to assume, the less qualified Helton) back.

Helton vs. Votto is interesting if you just look at Helton thru 33; Helton had 54.5 bWAR vs. 54.8 for Votto. But the narrative is completely different - Votto has a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 6th, and 7th in MVP voting while Helton had a 5th, 7th, and 9th. As we continue to see, narrative still holds considerable sway over the voters. Helton also has a clear peak that you see not just in WAR but also in his batting stats, while Votto's been the same hitter the last 9 seasons (except for '14 (when he was hurt and played just 62 games) his OPS has been between .926 and 1.041 each year since '09).

But the real factor is how he ages. If he ages like Helton, I think he'll struggle to get in (but Helton had already declined by the time he was 33); if he ages like Edgar or Ortiz, he'll breeze in.
   81. TDF, trained monkey Posted: January 25, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5613100)
<soapbox>

AND HOW IN THE HELL CAN ANDY PETTITTE, WHO ADMITTED HGH USE, BE CONSIDERED A HOFER WHEN ROGER CLEMENS, WHO HAD MORE THAN TWICE THE CAREER AND FOUGHT (AND WON) IN COURT AGAINST PED ACCUSATIONS ISN'T?

</soapbox>
   82. Zonk is One Individual Posted: January 25, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5613113)
I wouldn't have voted for Hoffman either, but in BBTF HOF voting context -- I'm a suspected closer apologist.

In any case, this seems like the best possible outcome so I approve. Edgar looks good for next year. Bonds and Clemens creeping up. Mussina and Schilling on track (and FTR - yeah, put me down in the get over Schilling's assholeness camp - he should be in the HoF).

The lesser PEDsters (Sammy, Manny, and Shef) all look like they're going to squeezed out so I'm inclined to basically throw in the towel on them for BBWAA purposes - hopeful they'll go via the VC but we'll see.

Rolen and Walker (who I'm a convert to) seem to be the ones that need the most love.
   83. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 25, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5613114)
We know from the Bonds percentage that 50%+ of voters do not automatically disqualify a player for steroids (or suspicion).
The problem is that we don't know what criteria the Bonds voters are using. Some of them are almost certainly guesstimating when Bonds started using and then voting only on the presumably clean portion of his career. If you guesstimate that he started using after the 1999 season, then you're looking at a guy with 103 WAR and 77 WAA -- an easy Hall of Famer. The same calculus with Sosa (guesstimating that he started using after 1997) gets you a guy with 11 WAR and a bit under 9 WAA.
   84. Morty Causa Posted: January 25, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5613118)

There were, and are, on-the-field and in-the-clubhouse reservations about Dick Allen. He was a poor fielder and a lackadaisical baserunner, and where's his bloody sock? Instead, we have, I ain't playing because I don't think y'all (y'all being other players and management/owners) treat me nice enough. And his career was, is, seen as short, for reasons that have to do with his own making it so.
   85. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 25, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5613123)
Helton vs. Votto -- what strikes me is that their black ink and gray ink scores are nearly identical, even though Helton played in the greatest hitting environment known to man. That seems significant when comparing HoF cases.
   86. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 25, 2018 at 10:38 AM (#5613124)
Helton vs. Votto is interesting if you just look at Helton thru 33; Helton had 54.5 bWAR vs. 54.8 for Votto. But the narrative is completely different - Votto has a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 6th, and 7th in MVP voting while Helton had a 5th, 7th, and 9th. As we continue to see, narrative still holds considerable sway over the voters. Helton also has a clear peak that you see not just in WAR but also in his batting stats, while Votto's been the same hitter the last 9 seasons (except for '14 (when he was hurt and played just 62 games) his OPS has been between .926 and 1.041 each year since '09).

But the real factor is how he ages. If he ages like Helton, I think he'll struggle to get in (but Helton had already declined by the time he was 33); if he ages like Edgar or Ortiz, he'll breeze in.


war totals, age 34-39
Helton, 6.7
Edgar, 29.7
Thome, 15.7
Ortiz, 20.4


edit: had too many years for Ortiz.

so, yeah, you're right. :-) I will just say that Votto SEEMS like he is going to be more Ortiz/Edgar than he does Helton, but, youneverknow
   87. TDF, trained monkey Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5613154)
I will just say that Votto SEEMS like he is going to be more Ortiz/Edgar than he does Helton, but, youneverknow
Right. Again, by this age Helton was way past his peak (132 OPS+, 11.3 bWAR from 31-33) while Votto is actually coming off his best 3 year stretch (167 OPS+, 19.1 bWAR 31-33).
   88. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:06 AM (#5613159)
I really do think if I were a 22 year old with a great fastball I'd scream and yell and beg to be a reliever. They're overvalued financially


According to BB-Ref, Johan Santana made more than twice as much money in his career ($161.5 million) as Trevor Hoffman ($80.3 million). That may still overvalue Hoffman depending on your metric of choice, but not nearly to the extent of Hall-of-Fame voting.
   89. McCoy Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5613163)
I'd say there have been plenty of 22 year olds with great fastballs that have flamed out as relievers. I mean the success stories are guys like John Rocker and Kyle Farnsworth so that ain't a great standard to shoot for. Most relievers don't seem to hang around long at the major league level to the point where they can make great money.
   90. ajnrules Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5613166)
I like to keep track of Hall of Famers I've seen play, but haven't updated the list in a while. This year's class is 50/50. I certainly don't remember ever seeing Hoffman, though it's technically possible he came in to save an interleague game I saw in Texas at some point. Chipper I know I never saw in person.

I've seen three of the four play in person. Trevor Hoffman was the only one I never did get to see. I've seen the Padres twice when he was there, but in one game Jake Peavy threw a complete game shutout, and in the other game the Padres never had a lead in the ninth. I did see him signing autographs before one game though. Maybe I should have gotten one.

I saw Vladimir Guerrero a total of eight times in his one year with Texas. He played very well in the six regular season games I saw him (.407/.407/.741 with 2 homers, 8 runs, and 7 RBIs). However, I never saw him take a walk until his two post-season games when he actually had two walks but he went 1 for 6.

I took a trip to Atlanta in 2012 to watch the Braves and got to see Chipper Jones get two hits. Box Score here.

I saw Jim Thome twice 17 years apart. The first time, on 9/23/1995, he was still a 25-year-old third baseman. The second time, for the 2012 AL Wild Card Game, he was a 42-year-old designated hitter with only three games left in his career.
   91. Rally Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5613169)
There were, and are, on-the-field and in-the-clubhouse reservations about Dick Allen. He was a poor fielder and a lackadaisical baserunner


Poor fielder yes, but from what I know he was the opposite of lackadaisical baserunner. By the numbers he's +16 in baserunning runs and has a decent SB/CS record. But more than that, Bill James (while being anti-Allen on the whole) at least spent some time in his articles talking about what pro-Allen people saw. And if I remember correctly he was regarded as an intelligent and aggressive baserunner.
   92. Morty Causa Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5613189)
Sign me up.
   93. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 25, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5613236)
I think I have seen each of these 4 multiple times.

The only game I remember being at for a Hoffman appearance is this one: May 18, 2010

I have seen Vlad in Cincinnati while he was with Montreal, and with the Angels at the Skydome.
I don't remember any specific games with Chipper, but, I went to a number of Reds-Braves games in the late 90s (then girlfriend loved... and I mean, loved Tom Glavine).
And, as long as he played in at least one Reds-Indians interleague game, I would have seen Jim Thome. N

   94. John Northey Posted: January 25, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5613245)
I'm not a fan of Mussina (yeah, us Jay fans can hold a grudge - his All-Star antics of throwing in the pen when Duane Ward was pitching the 9th and Gaston the manager told Mussina ahead of the game what to expect; plus his complaining about a long on field ceremony for a Toronto radio broadcaster who was dying of brain cancer at the time). However, I agree he does belong in the HOF at some point. If he waits the full 10 years then eventually gets in the Morris way I'd be happiest but certainly see that the voters should put him in soon.

Schilling I disagree with on politics quite strongly (as full disclosure I've run politically here in Canada for the Greens) but see no case to keep him out as he was a great pitcher who has great postseason moments (bloody sock, co-MVP for Arizona) and always was a guy I hated to see the Jays face. He hits all the core criteria from 'felt like a HOF'er' to great moments in postseason to long enough career (200+ wins - normally the minimum to be considered seriously as a starter). I thought he'd be in 1st or 2nd ballot - sure didn't think he'd be around still at this point.

I'm just hoping that Roy Halladay gets in next year. The last Expo is in and now it is time for the 2nd Jay cap in the HOF.
   95. Rally Posted: January 25, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5613318)
According to BB-Ref, Johan Santana made more than twice as much money in his career ($161.5 million) as Trevor Hoffman ($80.3 million). That may still overvalue Hoffman depending on your metric of choice, but not nearly to the extent of Hall-of-Fame voting.


Certainly no doubt Santana could have been an awesome closer, better at his peak than Hoffman. As it is Hoffman only beats him slightly in ERA+ (141-136) while pitching almost twice as many innings. But it's real hard to say he had any chance at all to have Hoffman's career. Hoffman held the save record for a time because he pitched into his 40s. Santana pitched one season after the age of 31.

We can hypothesize that Santana would have lasted longer if he was pitching fewer innings per year, but that is a big leap to make. Perhaps he would have broken down anyway, and only the fact that he was used as a starter allowed him to cram so much value into a few short years. Bullpen Santana would probably end up as Eric Gagne on the low end and Billy Wagner on the high end.

Given the impossibility of predicting you can last into your 40s, I think if Santana had to do it over again he'd still choose to be a starter. Even if doing so means no chance at the HOF instead of a slight one, at least he's got an extra 80 million dollars to enjoy.
   96. Morty Causa Posted: January 25, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5613324)
Any writer who doesn't think Schilling should be in the HOF should be expunged from the voting roster.
   97. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 25, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5613448)
Vlad just announced he'll go in wearing an Angels cap (where's Jonathan Keri)--he'll be the first in HOF history
   98. Booey Posted: January 25, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5613457)
Vlad just announced he'll go in wearing an Angels cap (where's Jonathan Keri)--he'll be the first in HOF history


And Pujols the 2nd! :-D
   99. QLE Posted: January 25, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5613458)
Answering the questions in #10:

1) I suspect he will get in at some point, but I don't expect him to surge next year- too many of the new arrivals to the ballot are pitchers, and I'm expecting Martinez and Mussina to take a lot of the attention with regards to the backlog.

2) Not enough evidence at this point- note that the two of them were basically static this year. I'd need to see what the 2019 results are before I can make any call on growth.

3) Deeply unlikely- if a lot of the folk not voting for them wanted to, they'd be able to make room for them.

4) Dubious- I'm suspecting that Vizquel is more likely to stall in this position than to surge.

5) Rolen is a real possibility, but I'm not sure the other four are likely in those terms- Manny has PEDs working against him, Kent has been basically stagnant since 2014 in spite of the ballots being increasingly less logjammed, Sheffield is the same story with one less year spent on the ballot, and Wagner will not fare well in direct comparison with Rivera.

6) Probably not- the performance of Larry Walker points to clear limitations to what Helton can expect, and the performances of Bernie Williams and Posada suggest that the days of voters overrating Yankees are over. The most likely one for that would be Berkman- and that's inasmuch as that the general expectation is that he'll be one-and-done.

7) I'll take the over on that- a lot of voters will end up with four empty ballot spaces, only one other newcomer we expect to get a lot of BBWAA support, and a substantial number of them aren't going to turn to Martinez/Mussina/Bonds/Clemens/Schilling because they already have them on their ballots. Moreover, given that the votes per ballot was, at 8.46 votes per ballot, higher than it was last year and the year before, I don't think the writers are in the mood just yet to cut their votes. All of this helps Halladay quite a bit.
   100. bachslunch Posted: January 25, 2018 at 05:01 PM (#5613506)
Flip the first.
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