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Sunday, August 12, 2018

Chris Davis on struggles, false theories and whether he’d quit - School of Roch

Good interview with the struggling Davis.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 12, 2018 at 08:13 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: chris davis, orioles

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   1. BDC Posted: August 12, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5725312)
What’s changed for Davis?


Well, he's 32 years old. In some ways that doesn't seem old, even in baseball; but there have been sluggers who were really pretty good in their late 20s – Kevin Mitchell, Juan Gonzalez, Ryan Howard – and by age 32 or so they were simply done contributing.
   2. escabeche Posted: August 12, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5725328)
I don't think any of those guys got this bad, this fast, this young, though. I'm not sure I can think of a comparable. Like, maybe if Albert Belle had tried to play through his hip disease it would have been like this?
   3. RJ in TO Posted: August 12, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5725332)
I don't think any of those guys got this bad, this fast, this young, though. I'm not sure I can think of a comparable.
Glenn Davis. At age 28 and 29, OPS+ of 142 and 143. At age 30 and 31, OPS+ of 113 and 112. At age 32, OPS+ of 22, and done.
   4. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 12, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5725335)
Glenn Davis. At age 28 and 29, OPS+ of 142 and 143. At age 30 and 31, OPS+ of 113 and 112. At age 32, OPS+ of 22, and done.


Alvin Davis. at ages 27 and 28, OPS+ of 141, 156. At 29, 129. At 30 and 31, 76, 86, and done.

I sense a trend...
   5. puck Posted: August 12, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5725337)
Wow, 4 more years on the contract, too.
   6. puck Posted: August 12, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5725338)
Whaa, double post.
   7. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 12, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5725344)
Khris Davis is having a fine year at age 30. he will be a FA after next season. Buyer beware...
   8. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 12, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5725348)
I’m probably comically wrong but I think we will see more of this in the high K era. A guy like Davis is playing with almost no margin for error. Any kind of decline in power or BABIP is going to leave him helpless. Especially since he’s a guy who has no defensive or base running value.
   9. Endless Trash Posted: August 12, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5725357)
I don't know about you guys but this contract has gone exactly as I expected.

I've been trying to find the signing thread but of course every Chris Davis thread ends up not being about Chris Davis.
   10. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: August 12, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5725360)
Eric Davis

Age 27: 153 OPS+
Age 28: 123
Age 29: 105
Age 30: 85
Age 31: 100
Age 32: 51
Age 33: Retired
   11. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: August 12, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5725361)
   12. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 12, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5725366)
51. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: January 16, 2016 at 05:25 PM (#5135727)
I think Dunn is the worst case scenario. Most players don't collapse that badly and while Davis ain't Ozzie Smith he's a win plus better than Dunn defensively and seems to be a better athlete.

Could it happen? Sure but I wouldn't bet on that being the 50th percentile result or anything close to it. He's coming off a great year and there is no real reason to predict a complete collapse in 2016.

I wouldn't have wanted my team to sign this deal either. I think there are likely to be several years of "oh crap we are still paying this ####### guy" in there rather than just 1 or 2. But I'd bet for the first 2-3 years he will be worth his money comfortably.


I am very dumb.
   13. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 12, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5725377)
Tobacco poisoning.
   14. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: August 12, 2018 at 03:08 PM (#5725395)
Nah, I was dumb before I discovered cigars.
   15. vortex of dissipation Posted: August 12, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5725404)
Eric Davis

Age 27: 153 OPS+
Age 28: 123
Age 29: 105
Age 30: 85
Age 31: 100
Age 32: 51
Age 33: Retired


Yes, but he came back after a year away to play six more seasons (1867 PA) with a line of .291/.372/.496, and an OPS+ of 124 - and that includes time off to recover from cancer.
   16. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: August 12, 2018 at 04:01 PM (#5725408)
Yes, but he came back after a year away to play six more seasons (1867 PA) with a line of .291/.372/.496, and an OPS+ of 124 - and that includes time off to recover from cancer.


Chili Davis was almost as good in his 30's as his 20's. Willie Davis had 2 of his best years are ages 31 and 32, and was effective through age 36. Tommy Davis is all over the map, but only 1 above average season after age 28. Jody Davis was effectively done after age 30. Mike Davis WAS done after age 30.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: August 12, 2018 at 04:48 PM (#5725419)
Meanwhile Sammy Davis had a number one hit at age 47 with Candy Man.
   18. BDC Posted: August 12, 2018 at 04:49 PM (#5725422)
To be really thorough about this: Spud Davis was a part-timer by age 32, but got his second wind at 35 and was about as good again at 39 – though it took World War Two to bring that about.

It took a court order to keep George Davis out of the lineup at age 32. He would come back and have another five good years.

Crash Davis started dating Baseball Annie at age 32.
   19. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: August 12, 2018 at 05:21 PM (#5725435)
Well, he's 32 years old.
Kole Calhoun isn't much younger, and had an even worse first two months offensively. Now Calhoun's had 25 XBHs in his last 45 games, and hitting .284/.350/.630 in that stretch. I thought Calhoun was totally done, and I'm still not totally convinced he's fixed forever, but this makes me wonder if Davis' issues are as mental and mechanical as Calhoun's were.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: August 12, 2018 at 05:44 PM (#5725438)
ain't going nowhere.
   21. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 12, 2018 at 05:51 PM (#5725440)
When they were 32....

Angela Davis was an Ebony centerfold

Bette Davis was nominated for an Oscar

Ernie Davis was a war correspondent for The Celestial Gazette

Geena Davis won an Oscar

Jefferson Davis had 40 slaves

Miles Davis recorded Kind of Blue

Ossie Davis made his film debut

Rennie Davis discovered the Guru Maharaj Ji

Terrell Davis made the Colorado Sports Hall of Fame


   22. Walt Davis Posted: August 12, 2018 at 08:39 PM (#5725469)
When I was 32, I was in a relationship with The Redhead. I win.

EDIT: as you might guess, age 33 was definitely less impressive.
   23. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: August 12, 2018 at 08:50 PM (#5725473)
I made the (obvious?) Ryan Howard comparison in that thread.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: August 12, 2018 at 09:04 PM (#5725477)
Hey, lucky me, this was probably one of my less contentious Davis prognostications:

On Davis ... as I noted in the Showalter thread, in RAW dollar terms this is still only what Tex and AGon got 5-8 years ago and still less than Fielder 4 years ago despite revenues going through the roof. I don't really consider Davis to be in Tex and AGon's class (at the time they signed) and he's not a guy I'd like giving a 7th year to but we are talking a lot of revenue inflation in the interim. It's also essentially the same deal as Heyward without the opt-outs (I assume) ... but I'd sure rather have Gordon at 4/$72.

Anyway the man does have 159 HR over the last 4 seasons. If he can put up 250 over these 7 years he'll be at 453 and might hang on to 500. If he doesn't get (at least) 250 over these 7 years, this probably wasn't a good contract. :-)


On the money thing, I see from the article that it is also heavily deferred. In that thread, Snapper puts it as the equivalent of a non-deferred 7/$143 contract.

Then later in the thread :-)

but I'd sure rather have Gordon at 4/$72.

In a mostly unintended way, I guess I was right ... they've both stunk but the Royals will be free of that reasonably soon.

Even later in that thread:

Unfortunately for the O's, Davis's b-r comp list doesn't look too far off. They averaged a 123 OPS+ with 180 HR in 3100 PA; he's at a 122 OPS+ with 205 HR in 3100 PA. They hit 263/345/495; he hit 255/330/506. The two guys who would seem to clearly not belong are McGwire and Stargell.

And from age 30 on, the only two guys with good (outstanding) value are McGwire and Stargell and the only other one that made it to even 10 WAR was Tino Martinez (14 WAR). Tino is probably the least like Davis on the other end of the spectrum (low Ks, "just" 157 HR). Swisher is still active but it seems unlikely he's going to add much to his resume in the next two years. This comp list looks like a disaster.

2016 O's ZIPS are available. On the one hand, they project Davis to 3.8 WAR -- probably a bit short of what he needs to do in year 1 to make this an OK deal but not bad. On the other hand, it puts his most similar as Willie Mays Aikens who was done at 30.


Other than Mac, Stargell, Tino and Swisher, I have no idea who was in that list but apparently it wasn't good. And ZiPS was of two minds as well -- Aiken was an odd comp entering age 30 as he had already kinda fallen apart at 29 ... and he was one of the cocaine guys wasn't he?
   25. BDC Posted: August 12, 2018 at 09:11 PM (#5725480)
still less than Fielder 4 years ago


Speaking of guys who were through at age 32 … though in Prince's case due to disc-fusion surgery :(
   26. The Honorable Ardo Posted: August 13, 2018 at 07:56 PM (#5726061)
#21 is fantastic.

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