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Friday, June 27, 2014

Chris Young is Twice as Likely to be Benched After a Good Game Than an Oh-Fer: Why Terry Collins is the Worst

Then, I looked to see what happened after each of those games, at whether Young started or was benched for the next team game.  The results are… perplexing. For the last month, from May 29th to the present, Young has had 8 “good games” and 7 “bad games” where the Mets had a game the next day.

After the “bad games”, he was started 57% of the time and benched 42% of the time.

However after the “good games”, he was started 25% of the time and benched 75% of the time.

 

thetailor Posted: June 27, 2014 at 03:43 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, terry collins

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   1. Lars6788 Posted: June 27, 2014 at 05:11 PM (#4737631)
It's about running a guy out there to have the most success - if Young [or Abreu for that matter] were guys you can play every day, then Collins would do it.

As is, maybe Young gets overexposed even if he does play well for a game or two.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: June 27, 2014 at 05:44 PM (#4737657)
Would I be correct in gussing that Young's starts are more likely to come against LHP? That he rarely starts two straight games started by a RHP?

From the gamelogs of this period, I see he also got 6 starts in 7 games at one stretch, with 5 of those being "bad" (I'd guess). Unless that was an attempt to showcase him to somebody interested in a trade, I'm guessing somebody was hurt during that stretch
   3. Danny Posted: June 27, 2014 at 06:06 PM (#4737669)
[FN2] Some have explained this by saying that Young was being benched against RHP after good games against LHP. Although I haven’t researched the matter beyond what you see in this column (and by all means, I welcome someone to do so), that is not the case. It is true that for his career, Young has been a little better against LHP (827 OPS) than RHP (708 OPS).

This year, however, the split is reversed — his OPS against RHP is 671 (in 144 AB) and against LHP is 594 (in 43 AB), and 6 of his 7 home runs have come against righties. Either way, a gap of ~125 OPS points between RHP and LHP does not make you a guy who should be “platooned”. Duda , for example, is being properly platooned (827/630).

It makes sense that he didn't realize Young was being platooned, as he doesn't seem to understand how platoons work.
   4. thetailor Posted: June 27, 2014 at 07:54 PM (#4737727)
#3 That's me. I understand how platoons work. I'm not sure what your comment adds.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 27, 2014 at 08:05 PM (#4737730)
So...who cares? Is there some correlation between how you did yesterday and how you did today? Chris Young hasn't hit like a regular in awhile. He should be benched quite a bit.
   6. Buck Coats Posted: June 27, 2014 at 08:16 PM (#4737737)
On the other hand, what's the alternative? The even-worse-hitting Eric Young?
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: June 27, 2014 at 08:21 PM (#4737739)
#3 That's me. I understand how platoons work. I'm not sure what your comment adds.


Current season success is not indicative of an increased ability. Young's career numbers vs lhp and rhp Is the only stretch of time anyone should be looking at..(technically go with a three year running total) nobody should use current season numbers to justify playing a guy against his established platoon split.
   8. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: June 27, 2014 at 08:28 PM (#4737742)
Re: #4

A couple of issues. First, a gap of 125 points of OPS doesn't necessarily make a guy someone you need to platoon. But 125 points is significant, and if you can get a better performance out of someone else 2/3 of the time, you might as well (the Mets non-Granderson options aren't clearly better than what Young offers against RHPs, but I'm not going to go crazy over the corner OF with the career .708 OPS vs RHPs being benched).

Second, it's a really bad idea to be looking for much meaning in < 200 ABs worth of splits, especially if those numbers aren't multiple standard deviations from what one expect. Single ABs can drastically affect the numbers. If he hits a HR his next AB against a LHP, that split will go up by about 20%.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: June 27, 2014 at 09:16 PM (#4737763)
But CFB, by that logic one shouldn't be looking at Young's usage only since May 29 and then there'd be nothing to write about and no chance to call Collins an idiot ... which, fair enough, I'm not aware he's ever shown much managerial acumen prior to May 29.

:-)

May 29 start vs RHP starter
May 30 bench vs RHP in favor of Abreu/Granderson
May 31 start vs RHP over Lagares (appeared as a PH but not again in this period I don't think)
June 1 start vs LHP
June 2 bench vs RHP in favor of van Dekker
June 3 start vs RHP over Abreu
June 4 bench vs RHP in favor of van Dekker
June 5 start vs LHP in CF
June 6 bench vs RHP in favor of Andrew Brown/van Dekker
June 7 start vs RHP over Abreu
June 8 start vs RHP over Abreu
Jun 10 start vs RHP over Abreu
Jun 11 bench vs RHP in favor of Abreu
Jun 12 start vs RHP in CF (van Dekker)
Jun 13 start vs RHP over Abreu
Jun 14 start vs RHP over Granderson
Jun 15 bench vs RHP in favor of Brown/Abreu
Jun 16 bench vs RHP in favor of Young
Jun 17 bench vs RHP in favor of Young
Jun 18 start vs RHP in CF (Abreu)
Jun 19 start vs LHP in CF
Jun 20 bench vs RHP in favor of Abreu
Jun 21 start vs RHP in CF (Abreu)
Jun 22 bench vs RHP in favor of Kirk
Jun 24 start vs LHP in CF
Jun 25 start vs RHP in CF (Abreu)
Jun 26 bench vs RHP in favor of Abreu (Lagares back)

So, no, not really platooning. He got every start against LHP but many against RHP over Abreu.

What was going on was Lagares was hurt. I also assume that E Young was hurt for about half of this time. The Mets first mainly tried Van Dekker in CF against RHP but he hit 156. (oops den Dekker) The Mets are also clearly reluctant to start Abreu on consecutive days.

There would seem to be room for criticism of Collins here but it would be for under-use of Young and Abreu. If Young is not gonna be your full-time CF when Lagares is hurt, what is his purpose? No doubt Abreu needs a lot of days off and I assume is not exactly picking it in RF but maybe Collins should have pushed him harder. And even so, maybe Brown in LF, Young in CF might make more sense than den Dekker (Granderson switches LF/RF).

Anyway, Collins probably thought that Grand/den D/Abreu was his best lineup against RHP but had to use Young on Abreu's frequent off days. When den D floppped and EY was back, vs RHP, he either went EY/Grand/Abreu or EY/CY/Grand. Clearly playing time for EY can always be questioned. The pattern in CY's play wasn't driven by good/bad, it was driven by the (starting) availability of Lagares, Abreu and EY.

In general, once E Young was back, C Young no longer got corner OF starts vs RHP. They had a few games of EY/Granderson/Abreu which I don't imagine thrilled the pitchers.

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