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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Sunday, May 18, 2008
I understand Justin Inaz is now contributing…but Adjusted ERA makes the Enquirer?! Wooo-eeee!
Edinson Volquez is off to a start that has him on pace for an unprecedented season for not only a Reds starting pitcher, but as the greatest by any starting pitcher in major league baseball history.
While his projected 24 wins (based on the six wins he has heading into today’s start against the Cleveland Indians) will fall well short of even Denny McLain’s modern record of 31 set in 1969, his projected ERA of 1.12 would match the modern record set by Bob Gibson in 1968 and he would shatter the single-season record in a little-known but important category: Adjusted ERA (also known as ERA+).
The Web site baseball-reference.com defines Adjusted ERA as a pitcher’s earned-run average that also takes into account the affects of the ballparks he pitches in and how his ERA rates in accordance to the league average (a good measuring stick because it takes into account what are considered pitchers’ years, like 1968, and hitters’ years). An Adjusted ERA of 100 is considered average (the higher the number the better), and according to baseball-reference.com only 503 times have pitchers posted an Adjusted ERA of 149 or higher, many that occurred prior to 1930.
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1. Boots Day Posted: May 18, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#2784972)But call me a cockeyed pessimist, I guess.
Volquez has a 90.8 % LOB rate, and a 4.84 BB/9 rate. Even though his BABIP is exactly .300, I don't see how he can sustain his pace. Eventually those walks will hurt him.
However an ERA right below 3.00 is a reasonable projection.
Here's a trivia question that I'd like to know the answer to: when was the last time two ERA qualifiers faced each other this late in a season with a better average ERA+ than Volquez and Lee (507.5)?
Well, it's kind of like Hank and Tommy Aaron's combined HR total, but on May 14, 1981, Fernando Valenzuela (ERA+ 1155) faced Bill Gullickson (94) for an average of 624.
This is nit-picking, but when you combine/average ERA+, it doesn't work linearly, because the denominator of ERA+ is ER (as opposed to innings). The combined ERA+ of Fernando and Gullickson was probably around 200.
No pitching duel for the ages today, it's 4-2 Cinci in the 6th. Cleveland only plated 1 run through 5 despite 3 hits and 4 walks given up by Edinson. Mike Aubrey just hit his first career HR.
Yes, but I've always been "that guy" when it comes to grammar.
less and fewer
My personal fave. It's so easy to get it right.
My enthusiasm for this column dimmed as soon as I read the headline. The whole piece is built on the "on pace for" falacy.
affect/effect
their/there/they're
your/you're
misplaced apostrope (the Smith's)
Does not bug me (possibly because I don't use them right):
less and fewer
lie and lay
between and among
Possibly incorrect, but perfectly acceptable:
could care less (language changes, many idioms don't mean exactly what they say)
singular use of their (it used to be acceptable, it's better than he/she or other mutant variants)
misplaced apostrophe with acronyms (such as CD's, it improves clarity)
Who & whom.
Minuscule & miniscule.
Tons of others. Also, phrases ... & ampersands.
This is another that's so common that the actual correct usage actually sounds wrong. So it doesn't bug me at all.
Try and anything, other than try again.
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