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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer win 2013 Cy Young Awards | MLB.com: News

Not unexpected.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 13, 2013 at 08:21 PM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, clayton kershaw, cy young, max scherzer

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   1. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: November 13, 2013 at 08:24 PM (#4599729)
Look at the wins!!!!

All kidding aside, I can live with this.

[EDIT] - Kershaw is the man. Seriously, he's astounding.
   2. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: November 13, 2013 at 08:25 PM (#4599730)
Seems fair.
   3. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 13, 2013 at 08:28 PM (#4599731)
Yep, insert obligatory water is wet joke...
   4. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 13, 2013 at 08:32 PM (#4599732)
I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.
   5. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2013 at 08:36 PM (#4599735)
I do not see how anyone could have voted for Wainwright for first place. I'm fine if he finished in second place which is where he should have, but Kershaw was easily the best in the NL this year.


After looking at the vote totals, and of course this is a minor homerism nitpick, but how could 4 people leave Wainwright off of a 5 deep ballot?
   6. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 13, 2013 at 08:42 PM (#4599737)
No complaints about the winners, though I think Chris Sale was overlooked by the voters.
   7. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: November 13, 2013 at 08:51 PM (#4599744)
If you go the hardcore-saber route, Kershaw vs Wainwright is actually pretty close this year (I'd have voted for Kershaw). I don't think it's that hard to justify a first place vote for him, though I am kind of surprised he actually got one. That said, I'm guessing Wainwright's first place vote was based on his W total, rather than his xFIP.

Harvey could've had a good case if he were able to finish the season. He still would have been my third place choice.
   8. jdennis Posted: November 13, 2013 at 09:20 PM (#4599753)
It's good that we won't have much controversy in the award this year. I hope these guys justify it with long, HOF-caliber careers. I would like to see Darvish be there every year.

According to the metric I use when rating pitchers historically, I did get Kershaw in the NL, but my top 4 in the AL were all relievers, and a specialist reliever got 2nd in the NL too (and he was torched in the playoffs, making it look extra bad). My top starters in the AL were Buchholz, Scherzer, and Iwakuma, who were 5, 6, and 8 overall, with Darvish, Sanchez, Sale 9, 10, and 11, and in the NL Harvey, then Fernandez in 3rd and 5th for starters. Cliff Lee was the top full-season starter in 6th.

Would I have voted that way in real life? Probably not, since I know my score can give a reliever who is amazing for a relatively small number of innings (read: LOOGYs) an unusually high score for a single season, though it smooths out for career value. Also, I've been surprised that almost every time they've given a reliever the Cy, my metric has actually agreed with them, and in fact it says there should have been more relievers getting the Cy since 1980. Anyway, I probably still would have gone with Koji and Holland in the AL, and given Kimbrel third place in the NL.

AL: Koji, Holland, Scherzer
NL: Kershaw, Harvey, Kimbrel
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2013 at 09:25 PM (#4599758)
I honestly cannot fathom a way that I would support a reliever for Cy Young in todays game... 60-80 ip, is just not enough for me. Of course I'm pretty dogmatic about playing time for awards. (of course the really funny thing is that I would fully support a reliever for MVP votes....which I know is contradictory to my previous comment.)
   10. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 13, 2013 at 09:43 PM (#4599762)
According to the metric I use when rating pitchers historically, I did get Kershaw in the NL, but my top 4 in the AL were all relievers


Then your metrics are stuffed. I agree with #9 and I'm sure most posters here, there is no way any guy throwing 70 innings can be more valuable then the top 3 starters, just no way...any metrics be damned.
   11. The District Attorney Posted: November 13, 2013 at 09:45 PM (#4599763)
#8: Holland's an odd choice, not really explained by undervaluing innings pitched... how did your system come up with that?

I can't imagine Cliff Lee 1st among NL 30-start SPs, but I would certainly have him 3rd. And I'm a little surprised that 50+ extra innings didn't get him ahead of Fernandez and Harvey. Presumably it's in large part because those two were better news stories than Cliff Lee doing what he always does. Anyway, very nice season by him, and almost totally overlooked.
   12. JRVJ Posted: November 13, 2013 at 09:49 PM (#4599764)
Question 1: If Verlander 2014 has a year comparable to his 2011 or even 2012, what would need to happen for Kershaw not to be talked about as the best pitcher in baseball?

Question 2: Which pitchers can be legitimately called Aces or No. 1 at this point? Obviously Kershaw, Verlander (his 2013 is not enough for me to bump him), Cliff Lee, Wainwright, Felix, Darwish. And then?
   13. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2013 at 09:58 PM (#4599767)
Question 2: Which pitchers can be legitimately called Aces or No. 1 at this point? Obviously Kershaw, Verlander (his 2013 is not enough for me to bump him), Cliff Lee, Wainwright, Felix, Darwish. And then?


I'm guessing it's up to individual definition of an ace. I consider ace to be the top 30 starting pitchers in baseball, and even there I break it up a little bit in that vast majority of them have to be 1. guys who you can count on for 30 starts a year 2. guys who haven't had an off year in two seasons. Generally speaking I wouldn't consider ace level talents to be aces until they have shown the ability to get through a season healthy. Obviously there are exceptions. Strasburg has 28, and 30 starts the last two seasons, I can see him qualifying within my structure.

I would say the list you have is obvious....and then you have to decide has Anibal Sanchez made the jump? I would go with Scherzer even with his 2011 in the mix. Chris Sale is pretty obvious. Greinke is up in the air, Iwakuma is approaching it...etc. I guess you come up with a list of 40 guys you think are it, then whittle away until you have the 25-30 you feel most comfortable with.
   14. puck Posted: November 13, 2013 at 10:04 PM (#4599771)
#8: Holland's an odd choice, not really explained by undervaluing innings pitched... how did your system come up with that?


Geez, he had quite the year, huh? I wonder if jdennis's numbers have anything to do with WPA, Holland was 2nd in MLB in pitching WPA to go with the crazy peripherals.
   15. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 13, 2013 at 10:18 PM (#4599779)
I would say the list you have is obvious....and then you have to decide has Anibal Sanchez made the jump? I would go with Scherzer even with his 2011 in the mix. Chris Sale is pretty obvious. Greinke is up in the air, Iwakuma is approaching it...etc. I guess you come up with a list of 40 guys you think are it, then whittle away until you have the 25-30 you feel most comfortable with.

This sounds about right. Sale's an obvious add, Scherzer's plausible at this point. I don't think Anibal is on the list YET, but part of the reason for that is that (colored by recent playoff performance) he seems like the #3 guy on his own team. I think I'd add Jon Lester even though he was lousy in 2012. David Price too.

Technically there should be 30 "aces" (ace = 1, implying "#1 starter," right?) but I think the way most fans use the word there are only 10-20 of them active at any time.
   16. JRVJ Posted: November 13, 2013 at 10:25 PM (#4599783)
13/15, That's part of the point: it's not clear how many No. 1's there are (I've even Heard it as low as 10 at one time).

That's why I threw out the OBVIOUS examples, so we could work from there.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2013 at 10:26 PM (#4599784)
Technically there should be 30 "aces" (ace = 1, implying "#1 starter," right?) but I think the way most fans use the word there are only 10-20 of them active at any time.


I agree with that, I try to think that there are 20 aces going into the season and by the all star break another 10 will have made the jump so that at the end of the season I will retroactively look back and say "these are the (roughly) 30 aces in baseball." (Note this doesn't necessarily mean best performances. I don't care how good of a season Lohse had in 2012, at the end of that year, nobody was going to think of him as an ace--although if he has a 120 era+ by the all star break next year, he would have a pretty good case then)
   18. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: November 13, 2013 at 10:29 PM (#4599788)
Rivera, cheated for the 58th straight season.
   19. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 13, 2013 at 10:53 PM (#4599804)
I know no one cares about (other people's) fantasy baseball leagues, but in my points-based keeper league we have an A/B/C-list classification system with the top 4 players at each roster position -- which means 16 starting pitchers -- considered "A-list." This covers the past three years, weighted 50%-30%-20%.

Here's our A-list starters. Does this look like an "ace" list?

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Cliff Lee
3. Justin Verlander
4. James Shields
5. Félix Hernández
6. Cole Hamels
7. Madison Bumgarner
8. Max Scherzer
9. David Price
10. Mat Latos
11. R.A. Dickey
12. Jordan Zimmermann
13. Matt Cain
14. Gio González
15. Hiroki Kuroda
16. Zack Greinke

Hardly anyone would consider James Shields the #4 starter in all of baseball, but I do think he's an "ace" in the Jack Morris sense -- extremely reliable, rarely excellent. I forgot about Hamels, but I think he definitely belongs on the list. Bumgarner too.

Anibal Sanchez is #17. Sale, Wainwright, Darvish and Iwakuma don't make it because of their short/missing 2011 seasons. (Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey also, of course.) Feel free to take any of those guys to knock out Dickey (one-year fluke, probably), Cain (if you think 2013 is more representative of his ability than his previous four years), Latos (makes the list on consistency more than excellence), and Kuroda (similar to Latos, plus he's getting old).

Jered Weaver and CC Sabathia have dropped off the list, but would have been considered "aces" last year.

The previously mentioned Strasburg is probably perceived as an ace (more so than Gonzalez and Zimmermann), but he's still working on that "reliability" thing.
   20. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 14, 2013 at 12:26 AM (#4599840)
Scherzer is interesting to me because I have been expecting him to break out for a while. (He led the league in strikeout rate LAST year, in 2012, with an uptick of about 9% of plate appearances, although granted I think the league went up a little. But even before 2012 his peripherals were good.)

But now that he *has* broken out, if I were GM of the Tigers, I might think of selling high rather than hanging on to him. Depends on what they might get back in trade, of course, because I could see him being really good for the next 5 years if he stays healthy (if if if). But he's a free agent after next year, I believe. The time might be now.
   21. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 14, 2013 at 08:34 AM (#4599895)
Scherzer is interesting to me because I have been expecting him to break out for a while.


Me too, I picked him to the win the 2011 CY before that season. This year seems to be the first in which his final numbers matched his peripherals.
   22. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: November 14, 2013 at 10:31 AM (#4599949)
Scherzer is a free agent next year and Scott Boras is his agent; his next contract is pratically guaranteed to be a disaster. His value on the trade market will never be higher. The only way not trading him this winter makes sense is if the Tigers believe they have a potential title team in 2014 and need Scherzer on it to keep it that way. Which may in fact be the case; but I would explore my options if I were the Tigers. Sometimes someone's willing to give you back major league talent that's as good as what you're giving up plus a prospect or two.

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