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Saturday, June 27, 2009

Cockcroft: Citi Field is costing the New York Mets—and their opponents—home runs in 2009

It’s a musgraveyard for flyballs!

According to Rybarczyk, the most significant change in ballpark effect by the Mets’ switching from Shea Stadium to Citi Field this season has been in terms of home-run production. In the first 37 games of Citi Field’s existence, the Mets and their opponents have been “robbed” of a combined 36 home runs that might have cleared the fences at Shea. Compare that to only two home runs—both hit by fellow fantasy first-rounder Chase Utley of the Phillies—hit at the Mets’ new home that would not have been round-trippers at Shea, and you’re talking a staggering difference in ballpark factors.

So what’s causing such a dramatic effect? Rybarczyk illustrates the vast difference in outfield dimensions between Shea and Citi Field in the diagram to the right. But it’s more than that. As he adds: “Keep in mind that the fences at Citi Field are considerably taller than those at Shea Stadium, and that for a typical home run ball, each additional foot of fence height is equivalent to moving the same height fence back by 0.84 feet. So, the 16-foot fence in left field at Citi Field is not only much deeper than the left-field fence at Shea Stadium, it is 8 feet taller, which equates to about another 6 feet of distance.”

Repoz Posted: June 27, 2009 at 03:43 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, projections, sabermetrics

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: June 27, 2009 at 03:51 PM (#3235134)
DISGRACEFUL
   2. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: June 27, 2009 at 03:56 PM (#3235138)
Mets' winning percentage at home, 2009 - .595
Mets' winning percentage at home, 2008 - .593

The park isn't costing the Mets wins.
   3. RollingWave Posted: June 27, 2009 at 03:57 PM (#3235140)
Any stadium that Brett Gardner can hit one out isn't depressing home runs THAT much
   4. aleskel Posted: June 27, 2009 at 04:07 PM (#3235145)
Any stadium that Brett Gardner can hit one out isn't depressing home runs THAT much

Gardner was just muscling up trying to keep pace with Ortiz
   5. DKDC Posted: June 27, 2009 at 04:14 PM (#3235147)
Well, no one ever accused New York of doing things halfway.
   6. Rich Rifkin Posted: June 27, 2009 at 04:14 PM (#3235148)
... and you’re talking a staggering difference in ballpark factors.
Shouldn't he be saying, at this point, "a staggering difference in home run factors," but not necessarily ballpark factors. One stadium could be much more difficult to hit home runs in, yet be easier to score runs in. Time will tell.
   7. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: June 27, 2009 at 04:22 PM (#3235155)
RTFA:

What those tables show us are two things: One, home-run production is down by 19.1 percent from Shea Stadium. Run production is down as well, an obvious byproduct of fewer home runs' being hit, but fortunately only slightly -- by 3.5 percent.
   8. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: June 27, 2009 at 04:22 PM (#3235156)
The Yankees and Mets just need to play alternate home games at each other's parks, and it'll all even out.
   9. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 27, 2009 at 06:16 PM (#3235219)
Brett Gardner: 50.667 AB/HR
David Wright: 67 AB/HR

If only CC hadn't been on in front of him in his 2nd AB, he'd probably have hit for the cycle. He's going to come down, but he's been a very good player so far this year (Fangraphs values his season at $8.7M).

I did like what I saw of Citi on TV. I think I'd bring in some of the walls and lower some, but I'd still rather play in a strong pitchers park than a homer haven.
   10. John DiFool2 Posted: June 27, 2009 at 06:25 PM (#3235222)
I don't know why we get these articles after a new park opens and it ends up becoming a relatively extreme hitter's or pitcher's park. Who cares? Both teams have to play under the same conditions; while yes some teams might get more (or less) of benefit because of their roster composition, that's part of the charm of the game, right?

I'd love someone to open a new park which has the dimensions (or at least the outfield area) of old Forbes Field, and populate their roster with speedsters. Even now I kind of miss the old Busch Stadium and old dimensions at Royals Stadium and the kind of baseball which tended to be played there (and yes the turf, which I otherwise find to be an abhorrent playing surface).

Edit; Oh I get it:

Those ballpark factors are very important to us, the fantasy owners, particularly the ones coming from new venues.


Well, I'm not a fantasy player, guess that explains it.
   11. Dr Love Posted: June 27, 2009 at 07:09 PM (#3235242)
SI has the same story on their front page.
   12. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: June 27, 2009 at 07:14 PM (#3235244)
I don't know why we get these articles after a new park opens and it ends up becoming a relatively extreme hitter's or pitcher's park. Who cares? Both teams have to play under the same conditions; while yes some teams might get more (or less) of benefit because of their roster composition, that's part of the charm of the game, right?
Well, at least with an extreme hitters' park, the increased number of pitches it takes to get through a game will negatively impact the team that plays there over the course of the season, as those extra pitches are all being thrown by the worst pitchers on their team.
   13. akrasian Posted: June 27, 2009 at 07:37 PM (#3235259)
Well, at least with an extreme hitters' park, the increased number of pitches it takes to get through a game will negatively impact the team that plays there over the course of the season, as those extra pitches are all being thrown by the worst pitchers on their team.

One of the reasons why, if I owned a team, I would want the stadium to be a pitcher's park. Over the course of the season the bullpen would be kept fresher.
   14. Rich Rifkin Posted: June 27, 2009 at 08:04 PM (#3235277)
One of the reasons why, if I owned a team, I would want the stadium to be a pitcher's park. Over the course of the season the bullpen would be kept fresher.
Sure has worked wonders for the Padres.
   15. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2009 at 08:30 PM (#3235293)
He's going to come down, but he's been a very good player so far this year (Fangraphs values his season at $8.7M).

That rates him as the third most valuable CFer in the AL, 8th overall. It'll be interesting to see where he settles. He's also pretty much carved out a ten year career with this start. A fast guy can live off a good year for at least a decade.

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