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Thursday, January 10, 2013
In case anyone’s interested in discussing collegiate-flavored hoops ...
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No kidding. State, despite being ranked "only" 13th nationally, has opened up a full game lead in the Big Ten standings. That and $2.95 will get them a latte, and there is nothing like a Big Ten season to humble everyone who participates, but it's been a nice few weeks.
This Kentucky team just frustrates me because it is obvious they have some talent but haven't figured out exactly what to do with it. I don't know what causes it exactly but last night's game was a perfect example of how they have managed to lose some winnable games. In the second half their offense just completely came apart, I think they shot 8-27 from the field after the break. Some of that was Alabama's defense adjusting to the offense UK was running but much of it was just plain bad shot selection. I know that Calipari's offensive philosophy is based on the dribble drive but if the other team adjusts and cuts that off, you have got to be flexible enough to change on the fly. For the life of me I don't understand why Wiltjer didn't get more touches in the second half, if nothing else it would prevent his defensive man from sluffing off into the lane. I admit it, I expect Kentucky to win every game, it was just the way I was raised :-)
also bury the needle on awkward players. yowsa
They're worse at free throws, but not as bad as last night showed. MSU got lucky, but I won't complain or feel guilty about it. MSU also forced a good number of air-balls that turned into offensive rebounds. Probably one of their better defensive shows against Wisconsin.
Eh, I won't begrudge MSU's win over Whisky as any road win in the B1G is a good one. Wait, yes I will. Whisky failed to score in the last 5:30 and couldn't even hit half their FTs. Now, obviously some of that was a typical Izzo led squad's defensive effort, but a lot of it was just complete incompetence by Wisconsin.
That said, I'd put MSU in the top 4 right now behind Michigan (#2 nationally in margin per possession behind Florida, great win at Minny), IU (If only Crean could coach as well as he recruits), Minny (Their athletsicsm is nearing UM levels and they rebound 42% of their misses) and then MSU.
I think MSU is doing it with smoke and mirrors but they have a talented roster and Izzo's teams always improve as the year goes on.
The B1G is just simply loaded. All these teams that breezed through the non-conference schedule are finding it much tougher sledding, even against the middle of the league.
It's a strange team, as joe says. I'm not sure it's actually that good; I didn't think from the Maryland game that they looked like a good squad. Calipari has pulled off some turnarounds in December/January before--the Brandon Knight team looked lost in December and put it together to have a great run. But this team doesn't just lack experience; it lacks talent. Poythress looks good but hasn't really played well all year. Goodwin is fine but not a #1.
I suspect that Calipari 1) expected Sprague to be back and so thought Harrow was a good rotation player but not a starter and 2) thought Shabazz Muhammad was coming to UK and 3) expected Poythress to adjust more quickly. They lack a Mohammad type who can take over, and they obviously ain't getting it done at the point.
The complex question is going to be the offseason. The incoming class is better and has a chance to be the best ever if they get one of their last three targets (which you wouldn't bet against.) Cal needs some of the freshmen to leave to clear space; they have to leave or sit on the bench, I suspect. Noel is obviously gone. Poythress and Goodwin are trickier.
I haven't seen enough of UCLA to know whether they should be considered disappointing or not. My expectations for them were middling, but I always let some air out of UCLA preseason.
Worth mentioning is Kelly Olynyk's line from tonight: 9/9 from the field 8/8 from the free throw line. Dude's shooting just under 70% from the floor on the season. Perhaps the most offensively efficient big man in college basketball this year.
i didn't see the louisville game, but i have to say that this was the best coached game i've seen in jay wright's tenure at villanova. he got lucky with the game-tying shot at the end of the 2nd half, but the way he blew up syracuse's zone at the high-post was an absolute thing of beauty. what they did was have their center post up on one of the guards at the top of syracuse's zone 16' out from the net, and then when they swung the ball from one side of the perimeter to the other, yarou would be able to dive to the net for an open shot, or his dive would cause the backside of syracuse's zone to collapse, leaving a shooter open in the short corner. it was really, really fun to watch,
not a hard core fan but if i was i don't know how i would be able to enjoy that game
Michigan gunning for #1 tmr at Illinois.
Or you could say, Illinois is gunning for #2 against Michigan. :)
I don't think there's much anyone can do to speed up Wisconsin-they've given up 60 or more 6 times this season, and are 1-5 in those games. Only given up 70 4 times. Last year was even crazier-the magic number was 57 and they only gave up more than 70 twice (71 and 72). 5-10 over 57, 21-0 below.
Minnesota does not by any means have a top-10 roster. It's well constructed, but they have real problems in the half-court.
I wonder how Wisconsin's tempo will work against Michigan. As long as they don't have a clone of Aaron Craft, Michigan should be able to run a little. I guess we'll know in two weeks.
Mark Montgomery is regretting taking that job, I bet. From Izzo to this?
This season is a job-saver for Sendek, anyway,
Pretty incredible to think that according to KenPom, MSU is the sixth best team in the B1G. I don't buy that -- and the numbers are so close that nobody really should -- I'd slot them third behind UI and UM, just ahead of OSU and a clear notch ahead of Wisconsin and Minnesota.
But I'd bet against the B10 doing that this year. Right now, Wisconsin is pegged at an 8 seed on Bracket Matrix projection aggregator.
Frank Martin is going to beat someone to death with their own arms.
Whose talent is underperforming more? LAL or UCLA?
Which conference is Florida in? ;)
'Cuse @ Pitt
Michigan @ Indiana
Both toss-up games for me, but I'll be safe and take the home team in both instances. Then not quite on that level, as all those are elite teams facing each other, but OSU/Kansas and MISS/UF should be decent secondary games to catch. Florida is probably the best team in the country, so wouldn't surprise me even if they won by double-digits. Kansas game should be a little bit closer, but would still favor Kansas by about 7.
If the Sun Devils win, this brings my plan for a Vegas vacation, centered around the P12 tourney, closer to reality.
Damn, Jahii Carson may be the greatest individual talent in school history.
It's TCU's first ever win versus a top 5 team.
The win raises TCU's kenpom ranking to #251 nationally.
On a related note, kenpom ranks 347 teams. Grambling is ranked last in *both* offense and defense - and by wide margins. That's amazing; they're 0-20. Five of those losses have been by less than 20 points (as many as have been by 40 or more), none by single digits. They appear to have one useful guy on offense (a jump shooting swingman), no good rebounders, they don't force turnovers... oof.
Mitch McGary stepped in big time for the injured Morgan but going forward Michigan needs a healthy Morgan to be at their best. Morgan is the key to their defense. With him they are good to very good on that end, without him they are mediocre.
Michigan is looking good for a #1 seed but they need a split this week @ Whisky and @ MSU. Thad Matta said it best, this (the B1G) league is about getting knocked down and getting back up. You have 4 legit contenders in the B1G (Michigan, IU, OSU, MSU) and then a number of solid teams before getting to the bottom.
Illinois is 3-7 in the Big 10. I'd say they're still on the outside looking in with that conference mark.
Either Oregon is turning into a pumpkin, or Colorado is getting off the mat.
If they get to 8-10, they'd have to be a lock, right? That would mean they pick up a road win against one of Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, or Ohio State. Iowa isn't in the class of those other 3, but they are a pretty decent team.
It might be hard for the committee to overlook a team that has the wins Illinois does, especially because the competition they are going against may not have one win at the caliber of Indiana, Gonzaga, Ohio State, or Butler.
Maybe just a bad game? 48-47 sounds pretty ugly.
I don't watch much basketball but sometimes catch CU, and they seem pretty thin. They rely heavily on two freshman and two sophs, and they're not blue chippers. Poor free throw shooting team. They look like a bubble team again, don't they? They don't win on the road--Oregon was the first win of note; the other two road wins were Wash St and Fresno St. And yet somehow they're around 20th in RPI-I don't get that.
Though being a bubble team is a big step up for CU basketball!
* - Not really. Colorado: 66.2%, ranking 220th.
Today, Dayton blew a 9 point lead with under 4 to play against Temple. That stretch featured 3 turnovers from their point guard. But the capper was Dayton being at the line with one second left on the clock, trailing by one, shooting two free throws after a surprising off-the-ball foul call. And missing both free throws.
Really hoped ASU would step up and get this one. I have a feeling the Devils are going to spend the rest of the season in the "First Four Out" zone.
New to me: hoop-math.com. High level college PBP stats.
this wisconsin team looks like the finnish national team yet somehow stay in games.
I first read this as "Evansville" and was surprised at the MVC fandom in here.
You should start dropping a bunch of Scott Haffner references in your conversation with the Prez.
It was a beautiful ugly win, but remember that Rodney Williams didn't play on Sunday.
Bo frickin' Ryan. I think its mostly the move from George Marshall to Traevon Jackson which has at least coincided with Wisconsin's improvement and (IMO) has catalyzed it. He's a better game manager than Marshall (who's still a bit wild). That free throw shooting has to be worrisome-best FT shooting team in the country two years ago to ranked somewhere in the bottom 10%.
It's no coincidence that Evansville and Traverse City both have teams in the Frontier League. The two cities are connected in so many ways.
Can't think of a team I wouldn't rather watch play. Taking the air out of the ball and counting on the Big Ten refs to let more stuff go uncalled is infuriating. Look at them in the non-conference, and away from the anything-goes B1G refs and they lost to all the possible tournament teams they play.
That pretty much eliminates Kentucky from contention for just about anything, on the off chance you still believed in them. Might be a struggle to make the tournament at this point.
Should be a really good game between two high-powered offenses. Those of you lamenting the methodical, bruising tone of B1G games might enjoy this one.
Well, so much for that. St Mary's needs to win the conference tourney now, I'd reckon.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130212/matthew-white.ap/
** Lost to Magic's MSU.
They do have a home game with Creighton next weekend for the Bracketbusters event, but what seemed like it may have been a marquee victory opportunity a few weeks ago looks a bit ho-hum after Creighton shockingly has fallen apart against mediocre MVC competition.
I still think St. Mary's is better than your average bubble fodder (but not by much, really) but they have no good wins to hang their hat on, in large part because they played nobody worth a salt (and lost to some lousy teams) during OOC. They set their season up to have it all ride on beating the Zags once or twice this year, which has worked for them on occasion in the past, but Gonzaga is too good this year and now they may have to beat them in the WCC tourney (seems unlikely) or they'll be at the mercy of an NCAA committee that has left them on the outside looking in several times before in similar situations.
Basically, you can get a lot of offensive rebounds on one possession, and still not score.
Is that matrix just an aggregation, or is he weighting them somehow?
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