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Friday, March 06, 2009

Commentary on Baseball America’s Top 20 Prospects

#6 Travis Snider OF, Toronto Blue Jays
50: Minor league homers in 305 career games.
Opening Day Age: 21
ETA: 2009

A short, stocky guy with a quick, power stroke, Snider is expected to play right field for Toronto this year after he held his own in a September call-up (.301/.338/.466 in 24 games). He probably won’t hit for much average, as guys who strike out more than once a game in the minors rarely do in the majors, but he should hit some homers.

Baseball Prospectus compared him to Brian Giles in their comments last year, but Giles struck out about 1/3 less often than Snider by this point in his career, and walked more. He had the bat control thing down first, and developed the power later on (when, coincidentally, everyone was developing power, if you know what I mean). Snider to me looks more like Pete Incaviglia, who had power but struck out a ton and never walked all that much.

Anybody want to guess how many guys in history who were under six feet tall but over 240 lbs have hit 20 homers in a major league season? None. For that matter, nobody listed as 5’11” and over 215 has ever done that. Snider could be the first, but don’t expect him to have a long career.

Hotel Coral Esix Snead (tmutchell) Posted: March 06, 2009 at 06:15 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: amateur, athletics, blue jays, braves, brewers, cardinals, college, giants, high school, miami, minor leagues, orioles, projections, prospect reports, rays, red sox, rockies, royals, sabermetrics, scouting, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: March 06, 2009 at 06:42 PM (#3094591)
Maybe it's just me, but I reckon that someone who's super-snarky about BA's write-ups shouldn't be saying things like
Only 22, and in the system of a team [Atlanta] that's not expected to compete this year, he [Hanson]'s got some time to make sure he's ready.

In what universe are the Braves not expected to compete?
   2. Lazzeri Posted: March 06, 2009 at 06:52 PM (#3094606)
In what universe are the Braves not expected to compete?
In Flushing and Philadelphia.
   3. Bill Liming Posted: March 06, 2009 at 06:56 PM (#3094614)
Anybody want to guess how many guys in history who were under six feet tall but over 240 lbs have hit 20 homers in a major league season? None. For that matter, nobody listed as 5’11” and over 215 has ever done that.


175, yeah, right.
   4. Danny Posted: March 06, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3094616)
I shocked--SHOCKED--that this guy linked to his own crappy blog. Again.
   5. RJ in TO Posted: March 06, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3094619)
Baseball Prospectus compared him to Brian Giles in their comments last year, but Giles struck out about 1/3 less often than Snider by this point in his career, and walked more.


At the age of 21, Brian Giles was in high-A. Travis Snider was compiling his numbers in AA, AAA, and MLB. Giles didn't even get his first taste of the majors for another 4 years.

Are they really that comparable?
   6. 3Com Park Posted: March 06, 2009 at 07:13 PM (#3094643)
At the age of 21, Brian Giles was in high-A. Travis Snider was compiling his numbers in AA, AAA, and MLB. Giles didn't even get his first taste of the majors for another 4 years.
But unless Snider starts on a steroid regimen in a couple of years he won't be able to keep pace with Giles' career.
   7. Jimmy P Posted: March 06, 2009 at 07:20 PM (#3094663)
I shocked--SHOCKED--that this guy linked to his own crappy blog. Again.

Really? That's poor form. That's like citing your own research in an academic article.
   8. tfranco Posted: March 06, 2009 at 07:24 PM (#3094673)
Hum, Killebrew is listed as 5'11" 213lbs. Are we really going to nitpick over 2 pounds. The man did hit 573HRs and had 13 seasons of 20+ hrs.

Ron Cey was short and heavy. Interestingly his height and weight are missing from Baseball-Reference but his nickname was the "Penguine".
   9. RJ in TO Posted: March 06, 2009 at 07:27 PM (#3094685)
Matt Stairs is listed at 5'9" and 175 lbs. I have a hard time believing that weight is anywhere close to reality.

Kirby Puckett is listed at 5'10" and 210 lbs. While that may have been true early in his career, there's no way it was true when he was pounding out 20+ HR a season late in his career.

Generally speaking, the listed weights are ########. Unless, of course, you really believe that David Wells was only 225 lbs (and Cecil Fielder was 240, and Tony Gwynn was 199, and so on).
   10. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: March 06, 2009 at 07:28 PM (#3094686)
Really? That's poor form. That's like citing your own research in an academic article.


Dude, that happens all the time. It's not too bad, as long as it's been peer reviewed and what-not.

This is actually a little more annoying than that.
   11. Chipper Jonestown Massacre Posted: March 06, 2009 at 07:28 PM (#3094687)
In what universe are the Braves not expected to compete?

In Flushing and Philadelphia.


I would consider that a mini-verse.
   12. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: March 06, 2009 at 08:23 PM (#3094773)
It's not too bad, as long as it's been peer reviewed and what-not.

Yeah, I'm always a bit leary when I see authors cite their unpublished work to substantiate an empirical finding.
   13. xbhaskarx Posted: March 06, 2009 at 11:03 PM (#3094957)
Huh, so Trevor Cahill is basically "prototypical LAIM" Jeff Suppan and won't have a regular job in the majors until age 23-24...
   14. Good cripple hitter Posted: March 06, 2009 at 11:19 PM (#3094966)
Snider is expected to play right field for Toronto this year after he held his own in a September call-up

No, he's not. Alex Rios is in right, Wells will (presumably) be back from his hamstring injury and playing CF, and Snider will be playing in left.
   15. flournoy Posted: March 06, 2009 at 11:19 PM (#3094967)
In what universe are the Braves not expected to compete?


Personal universe of that guy who thought the Braves would be battling the Nationals in the standings.

Or at least the universe of anyone who writes an article about the Braves thusly:

[Insert Braves' player's positive aspects], but [insert Braves' player's negative aspects].

[Insert Mets'/Phillies'/Marlins'/Nationals' player's negative aspects], but [Insert Mets'/Phillies'/Marlins'/Nationals' player's positive aspects].
   16. celadus Posted: March 07, 2009 at 10:21 AM (#3095226)
I read somewhere that Hack Wilson was over 200 pounds (he was 5 foot 6) when he hit 56 home runs.

There may be hordes of under 6 feet over 200 pound baseball players whose weight in Baseball Reference is listed as 170 or 180, but that's the weight they were when they were 23, not 33.
   17. Daunte Vicknabbit! Posted: March 07, 2009 at 04:08 PM (#3095293)
My personal favorite is comparing absolute stud Jason Heyward to questionable first-rounder CJ Henry, who practically nobody thought would be good coming out of the gate, if ever.

I'm not sold on Snider simply because I haven't been sold on any Blue Jays hitters after Russ Adams, I lack faith in the Blue Jays hitting coaches or something.
   18. rlc Posted: March 07, 2009 at 06:49 PM (#3095396)
He'll start the year in AAA, which is a big jump from [...] AA

You can't buy insight like that.
   19. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: March 07, 2009 at 10:28 PM (#3095587)
With regards to Snider, he has apparently shown up to camp at around 220 lbs and is, as hard as this is to believe, in the best shape of his life. While underwhelming because everyone else is as well, it's still encouraging that he showed up decidingly slimmer.

Also, from watching him play with the Jays last year, he looked average in the field and not "stocky" at all.
   20. Hotel Coral Esix Snead (tmutchell) Posted: March 09, 2009 at 01:52 PM (#3096618)
A few notes in my defense, if I may:

1) Yes, I linked to my own blog. So what? There's no rule against it. A link from BBTF (or Rob Neyer, or Dayn Perry, or whomever) gets me several hundred extra readers, and this is one over which I can have some influence. Several hundred extra readers vs. half a dozen smug, self-righteous comments about "bad form"? I can deal with that.

And as for all this crap about peer review, this isn't the American Medical Association or the National Academy of Sciences. Hell, it's not even Popular Mechanics. It's an online discussion group about baseball. Don't take yourselves so seriously.

2) Baseball Prospectus projects an 86-win season, 3rd place finish for the Braves in 2009. Chipper hasn't played a full season since 2003, their starting rotation doesn't have one guy who's likely to win 15 games, and they don't have an outfielder or a firstbaseman who can really hit. Vegas odds are something between 20-1 and 40-1 against them winning the WS, behind both the Mets and Phils, and perhaps even the Marlins. Eighty six wins seem generous to me.

3) Regarding Sinder and the assertion that nobody like him has ever hit 20 homers in the big leagues, I should have used the phrase "listed as" in both cases. I realize that they don't update the weights of players as they age, and that there have in fact been lots of guys who actually were over 220 and under six feet who've hit well in the majors, at least for a while.

But those guys were more lean when they came up, and filled out later. Snider's already pretty heavy, and nobody who came to the majors with those configurations has had much success. I could have spelled that out better, but didn't want to take the time, which is my own fault. And good for him if he really is in better shape. Beat writers tend to say that about every fat guy who shows up to spring training looking like he did something other than sit on the couch watching football all winter, but it might really be true. Hope it is.

Prince Fielder is listed as 6' even, and is obviously at least 240, so that's a point in Snider's favor, but he plays an easier defensive position and anyway his career is fairly new.

Thanks for straightening my tie on the RF/LF thing, though. He played both last year, and I took a guess, but I should have dug a bit deeper.
   21. RJ in TO Posted: March 09, 2009 at 02:19 PM (#3096640)
I'm not sold on Snider simply because I haven't been sold on any Blue Jays hitters after Russ Adams, I lack faith in the Blue Jays hitting coaches or something.


The Jays hitting coach is currently Gene Tenace, with Cito Gaston (a good former hitting coach) as manager. I don't think there's too much to worry about this year, at least in that aspect.

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