The Phillies' payroll this year was $138M and it goes up to $143M in 2011 (with a couple of smaller arbs and other deals to add), but after that their obligations go down to $88M. Ibanez walks after 2011. Resigning Werth will give them a Brown-Victorino-Werth OF for 2012 going forward and possibly for next year if they're willing to count their losses with Ibanez. Werth is an injury risk but also has the well-rounded skill set that should age well.

#1, why do you think Werth is any more of an injury risk than anyone else of his age at this point?

Yeah, Werth has been 100% healthy for four straight years now and has been a full-time player for the last three. His early career suffered due to a wrist injury that I believe was misdiagnosed by the Dodgers medical staff but once he healed from that he hasn't had any injury problems at all.

What #1 said (except for the injury-risk thing). Don't underestimate how important the team's success this year has been to Werth's chances of staying. Having gone all-in with this bunch of players, they'll make every effort to keep the band together for another run next year, especially if they go deep into the playoffs and make the extra money that entails. If they don't bring back Werth, they'll have to shop for a right-handed bat on the open market and hope the guy will take a backloaded (at least for '11 salary) deal. Werth will do that to stay; other guys are less likely to accept that. Magglio Ordonez is the only other RH-hitting corner OF on the market that could fill the role, and I think the Phils would rather have Werth for 4-5 years than the brittle Ordonez for 2-3.

If they need to shed salary, Blanton ($8.5M/yr through 2012) and Victorino ($7.5M in '11, $9.5M in '12) are probably the top candidates to be shipped elsewhere. They would try to bring back less-expensive bullpen help or prospects (perhaps a promising young SS?) in return. Blanton would be easier to lose but would bring back a lot less, though his second half (5-1, 3.59 ERA) helped restore his value somewhat after a horrible start. If Victorino goes, Werth takes over in CF for at least a year, until a better option emerges from the farm system or free agency.

If they don't bring back Werth, they'll have to shop for a right-handed bat on the open market and hope the guy will take a backloaded (at least for '11 salary) deal.

i wouldn't say that's the case. without werth, their OF to start next season has victorino in CF, ibanez in left, and some combination of john mayberry (RH hitter), ben francisco (RH), domonic brown (LH), and ross gload (LH) to split time in right.

losing werth as a RFer will hurt, but his replacements look to be league average at worst, with a lot of potential to be significantly better between francisco (whose 2010 ZiPS had him projected at an .813 OPS), brown (who was looking to be the #1 prospect in baseball before he got called up following an injury to victorino), and mayberry (who can hit the ball a country mile). losing werth will hurt, but it seems like it would make more sense for him to go somewhere where he can play CF, and make 15+ million over 4+ years.

Boy, that story about Werth doing Utley's wife sure died quick.

Yeah, maybe he's not a more significant risk than another 31 year-old at this point. He's had at least two straight healthy seasons (and I'm assuming the 134 games in 2008 were due to platooning). FWIW the wrist did bother him again after joining Philly, but that was in '07. He's had some minor hip/oblique issues the past couple of seasons.

I think Steagles has this right. Unless Werth would take a big discount to stay in Philly (which I highly doubt despite the fact that it's a great place for a player to be because this is probably going to be his one shot at a big payday) the Phillies need to let him walk, and it won't kill them to do so. A full season of H2O should help offset the loss of Werth's offense while Brown gets acclimated.

Unless Werth would take a big discount to stay in Philly (which I highly doubt

You apparently haven't seen Utley's wife.

Not saying Steagles is wrong on the merits - just that I don't see management handing the keys to this $150m vehicle over to Dom Brown yet. Things get dicier after 2011, as Oswalt can opt out of the team option for '12, and Hamels will be due a huge payday. They will be hell-bent on winning in 2011. Keeping Werth - whether he takes at-bats from Brown or Ibanez - helps their odds next year more than any other offseason move is likely to do. They will make a hard run at him.

Keeping Werth - whether he takes at-bats from Brown or Ibanez - helps their odds next year more than any other offseason move is likely to do. They will make a hard run at him.

well, if you look at it like that, maybe. but they've already made their big offseason move by trading for roy oswalt. losing werth hurts, but if they can win 95 this season when everyone but werth and ibanez have spent ample time on the DL, i find it hard to believe that they'll fall much lower than 88 considering they'll have a full year from h2o, blanton figures to continue to rebound from a poor 1st half, and they still have utley, howard, ibanez, ruiz, victorino, and polanco. that lineup may not be the best in the world anymore, but this year's lineup wasn't that either. and yet, they're still sitting on 94 wins with 4 games left to play.


with werth, and with a little luck, i could see next year's team winning 100+. but even if they'd win 107, the playoffs are still a crapshoot, and everyone starts october on equal footing.

Conlin (and his editors) are slipping. The headline should have been "For Phillies, Jayson is Werth Keeping"

Unless Werth would take a big discount to stay in Philly...

He didn't just go out and change agents to Scott Boras if he had any intention of taking a discount.

so, in today's utterly meaningless game, both ben francisco and john mayberry jr. have hit homeruns. i'd say that bodes well for the future.

Two for Francisco now, not that this means a damn thing about the future.

#13, I did go on and say that I highly doubt Werth takes a discount. But Scott BOras doesn't automatically mean a team-unfriendly contract. Ryan Madson is a Boras client and signed a very reasonable 3 yr/$12m contract.

Werth would make a lot of sense in CF for the Braves. They need a big RH bat to break up Heyward, Freeman, and McCann for the next few years, and CF has been a wasteland for them recently.

Werth is worth keeping

I wonder if the headline writer felt even the slightest sense of ennui upon writing that.