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Thursday, January 12, 2012

Corcoran: The Hall of Fame chances of Jorge Posada, baseball’s Ringo Starr

Yeah, but shouldn’t Posada then be put through the Jim Keltner List and not the Ken Keltner List?

Yet, even moreso than his Beatles analog, Ringo Starr, Jorge Posada was an equal partner in baseball’s fab four, the quartet of Yankees teammates who debuted in 1995 and won seven pennants and five World Series together (though Posada, who played in just eight major league games in 1996, sat out the first of those).

That Posada is so comparable to Ringo, “the funny one,” who wrote just two Beatles songs and two of the worst at that, helps explain why he has had such a hard time being taken seriously as an all-time great at his position. However, news of his impending retirement, first reported by WFAN beat reporter Sweeny Murti last weekend, gives us a much-needed occasion to revisit Posada’s significance in baseball history. It’s fitting that the news about Posada arrived just days before the announcement of this year’s Hall of Fame class, as a case can be made that Posada is worthy of enshrinement, and it has nothing to do with his having kept time with sure-fire first-ballot inductees Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera or fellow borderline case Andy Pettitte, his Core Four brethren.

...Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

This refers to James’ own formula-based Hall of Fame Standards, which are listed on the player pages at Baseball-Reference. Posada falls just short, scoring 40 points against the average Hall of Famer’s total of 50.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has Posada even closer (40.2 points to the Hall standard of 42.6), but still just shy.

Repoz Posted: January 12, 2012 at 02:00 PM | 60 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, history, projections, sabermetrics, yankees

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   1. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 12, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4035281)
Hey, Ringo wrote 2.5 Beatles songs! He gets one-fourth of "Dig It" and "Flying"! Maybe they were the worst fourths of those songs, but come on!
   2. The District Attorney Posted: January 12, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4035310)
Wiki says "What Goes On" is "Lennon–McCartney/Starkey". I dunno if that's .5 or .33.

"Octopus' Garden" is stupid, but is it ultimately that much more stupid than "Yellow Submarine"? Yet they're both enjoyable. I wouldn't have it all that close to the bottom of the list.
   3. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: January 12, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4035322)
This is a reference to Ringo and Jorge's hot wives.
   4. Tippecanoe Posted: January 12, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4035328)
It's been several days since the last 700-post Beatles thread...Game on!
   5. A triple short of the cycle Posted: January 12, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4035349)
So Bernie Williams is not part of the "Fab Four" core of the Yankee dynasty? Uh, okay.

   6. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 12, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4035356)
Bernie is Pete Best. Have you HEARD his music?
   7. Manny Coon Posted: January 12, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4035357)
Octopus's Garden is amazing. This guy has no soul.
   8. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: January 12, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4035373)
So Bernie Williams is not part of the "Fab Four" core of the Yankee dynasty? Uh, okay.

IIRC, the media created the Core Four thing following the '09 WS (suck it, A-Rod!). So, no. Yes, I know it makes no sense, but whatever.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4035394)
Posada is one of the few to be involved in all 3 of the Yankees-Sox ALCS's, along with Williams, Jeter, Rivera, Torre, Varitek, Pedro, and Lowe (maybe others?).
   10. Bug Selig Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4035415)
So far, nobody has even noticed "Jim" Keltner?!?

The Beatles make people stupid.
   11. Dale Sams Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4035418)
"Don't Pass Me By" just sounds like it needs mixing help. The song itself is fine.

This is a reference to Ringo and Jorge's hot wives.


Seriously. The most famous quartet on the planet and Linda and Yoko are the best Paul and John can come up with?....at least Pattie Boyd was hot.
   12. The District Attorney Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4035419)
So far, nobody has even noticed "Jim" Keltner?!?
What, to comment on how funny it is?

I do get the joke. (It's quite clever.)
   13. Morty Causa Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4035431)
The Beatles make people stupid.


Not as stupid as they make the kneejerk anti-Beatles contingent seem.
   14. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4035432)
Posada is one of the few to be involved in all 3 of the Yankees-Sox ALCS's, along with Williams, Jeter, Rivera, Torre, Varitek, Pedro, and Lowe (maybe others?).


Trot Nixon and Ramiro Mendoza (only one to play for both teams?) are the only other ones I can think of.

I'll beat Karlmagnus to the punch and say that it sucks that Wakefield doesn't make that list.
   15. Morty Causa Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4035435)
Seriously. The most famous quartet on the planet and Linda and Yoko are the best Paul and John can come up with?..


I got a feeling they came up with a lot more women/girls than that--those two are the ones they kept, for reasons best known to them. What did Cynthia Lennon say, "All I know is that when we were married, he had more women than most people had hot meals"? (Trying to connect this thread to the anti-food stamp one.)
   16. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4035437)
The Jim Keltner line was so good, I wish Mr. R had omitted the "and not the..." explanatory handholding. Play to the five comedians standing at the bar, Repoz!
   17. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4035443)
There's an anti-food stamp thread? Damn, we really will talk about anything.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4035449)
I definitely forgot Nixon. Mendoza didn't play in the '03 series but maybe he was on the roster?
   19. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4035455)
I definitely forgot Nixon. Mendoza didn't play in the '03 series but maybe he was on the roster?


He didn't? I just assumed, oops.

Looking at the rosters now. One name that jumps a little bit is Enrique Wilson. He played in the '03 series, played for the Yankees in '04 but not in the ALCS and in '99 was the leadoff batter in the 9th inning of ALDS Game Five against Pedro. I don't know why but I find the way he sort of circles around being in all three series interesting. I love random "connections" like that though.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: January 12, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4035464)
I love random "connections" like that though.


...how about Kenny Lofton being on teams which lost the final 2,3, and 4 respective games of 7-game playoff series in consecutive years (the Bonds/Bartman/Big Papi serieses... or K-Rod/I-Rod/A-Rod).
   21. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 12, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4035523)
...how about Kenny Lofton being on teams which lost the final 2,3, and 4 respective games of 7-game playoff series in consecutive years (the Bonds/Bartman/Big Papi serieses... or K-Rod/I-Rod/A-Rod).


Ouch. I'd feel worse if I didn't loathe Kenny Lofton with every fiber of my being (not really sure why).

My favorite Lofton thing was this game when he grounded out for the cycle. Grounded to short in the 1st, to third in the 3rd, to second in the 5th, to first in the 7th and to the pitcher in the 9th. It was the rare occasion where keeping score at the game enabled me to share something more interesting than the number of strikeouts the pitcher has.
   22. simon bedford Posted: January 12, 2012 at 06:08 PM (#4035564)
Ringo was more than the funny one sorry, He was the guy who basicaly invented modern rock drumming, his fills were highly original and unorthodoxed and american session players like Hal Blaine and Keltner have said many times how hugely influential his style was, doesnt sound remotely like Posada.
   23. Morty Causa Posted: January 12, 2012 at 06:51 PM (#4035611)
Yeah, the other three, like many us, may have not have been able to resist ragging him here and there, now and then, but when he walked that time, they were sure quick to make amends.
   24. Arch Stanton Posted: January 12, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4035630)
Wiki says "What Goes On" is "Lennon–McCartney/Starkey". I dunno if that's .5 or .33.


The old Beatlesongs book (which tried to split up the authorship of all their songs) gave Ringo .2 for "What Goes On". John said in an interview that Ringo and Paul wrote the middle eight.

I'll take off my Beatles Nerd hat now.
   25. Morty Causa Posted: January 12, 2012 at 07:30 PM (#4035656)
Hey, there are some drummers who still haven't learn to talk. The guy was an excellent drummer and a good, if limited, vocalist. How many of those are there?
   26. simon bedford Posted: January 12, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4035662)
well lets see drummers who can "sing"

ugh phil collins jumps to mind
Levon Helm was a great singer and drummer
Don Henley
Dave Grohl
um Peter Criss?
   27. The District Attorney Posted: January 12, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4035678)
Grant Hart.

However, I really don't think Ringo Starr's contribution to the Beatles would be materially different if he had never sung.
   28. Downtown Bookie Posted: January 12, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4035683)
well lets see drummers who can "sing"


Micky Dolenz.

Here's a fun bit of trivia: Ringo was left-handed, but played on a right-handed drum kit. Conversely, Dolenz, who was right-handed, learned to play drums on a left-handed kit.

DB
   29. simon bedford Posted: January 12, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4035687)
Roger Taylor from Queen
Denis Wilson of the beach boys,

i think I would put Helm first as being the best singer/Drummer combo,,although Grant Hart was pretty damn good at both
   30. Downtown Bookie Posted: January 12, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4035688)
well lets see drummers who can "sing"


Dennis Wilson.

To anticipate what I'm sure at least some of you are thinking, Dolenz and Wilson were as much drummers as Ringo was a vocalist.

DB

EDIT: Coke to simon bedford (by less than a minute!)
   31. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: January 12, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4035698)
Kelly Keagy of Night Ranger

What?
   32. Walt Davis Posted: January 12, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4035704)
Mickey Dolenz ...

On the HoF side, leaving aside my virulent Posada sucked worse than Jeff Mathis side ...

Folks who write about a player's HoF chances really should start from the fact that there are clearly two standards -- the voters standard and the standard of whatever version of the VC is operating at the time. Neither standard can be exactly defined but the "average" HoFer is generally going to be a borderline candidate by the writers' standard.

On HoF Monitor, Posada is at 98 where a "likely" HoFer is 100. Well, that 98 is 34th among ACTIVE players. Oops, that's just active position players. He's about to be passed by Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira who still have many years ahead of them (or can you lose points in HoF Monitor?) All-time he is #165 -- tied with TONY PENA! (Say what?) Also tied with Lance Berkman (say what?) OK, I've just decided that HoF Monitor is useless.

On HoF Standards he's at 40 where an average HoFer is at 50. That's tied for 32nd among active position players with Scott Rolen (not a bad comp in its way), plus another dozen pitchers. Giles, Nomar, Vizquel, Franco, Lofton (OK, seems the active leaderboard hasn't been updated in a while), Ordonez, Tejada, Giambi, Alou and on and on are ahead of him.

I do stand somewhat corrected. The "borderline" for the writers seems to be somewhere around 40. Campy, Robinson, Puckett and Aparicio were elected with totals below 40 (maybe others but they'd be out of the top 200). The "milestone" number appears to be somewhere around 49 to 54 depending largely on how you feel about Abreu :-). Everybody 54 and above is or will be or would be in except for possibly Vlad and almost certainly Helton and Walker (I dont think standards is park-adjusted at all). Vlad's 58 on standards is probably, in its way, a very good explanation of why Vlad will sail in even though his career numbers are starting to look borderline.

But, yes, Cs seem "penalized" by Standards -- Bench 45, Berra/Fisk 49, only Pudge at 58 and Piazza at 62 are in the guaranteed zone -- so you can (amazingly!) make a case that Posada is better than Giles. :-) But then the voters seem to share that bias.

So it's reasonably clear that Posada doesn't meet the voters standards. A VC selection wouldn't be surprising but projecting it requires looking 25 years into the future and making some guess what VCs will look like then and whether Joe Girardi is head of the HoF.
   33. Rob_Wood Posted: January 12, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4035705)
Don Henley, Eagles
Karen Carpenter, The Carpenters
   34. simon bedford Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4035707)
mo tucker velvet underground
   35. Swoboda is freedom Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:19 PM (#4035721)
The Romantics's (What I like about you) drummer sang. Jimmy Marinos
   36. Kurt Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4035724)
The guy from the Romantics.

Fine, too slow b/c of the link.
   37. Kurt Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4035725)
And hey, Meg White did as much singing as Ringo.
   38. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4035727)
Buddy Miles.
Debbi Peterson (Bangles).
Jim Capaldi.
Melanie Clarin (Catheads, Donner Party).

Levon Helm has to be number one on the list, though, with Phil Collins a close second.
   39. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:30 PM (#4035732)
The "borderline" for the writers seems to be somewhere around 40. Campy, Robinson, Puckett and Aparicio were elected with totals below 40 (maybe others but they'd be out of the top 200).


Are any of those players relevant to either Posada's case or determining where the BBWAA's in-out line is? All those players had other factors for their candidacies that aren't covered by the HOF standards test: catastrophic off the field injuries that ended their career, pioneer credit, reputation as an incredible fielder, or all three.
   40. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4035733)
Dave Grohl can drum and sing, but not necessarily at the same time.

   41. cardsfanboy Posted: January 12, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4035740)
Are any of those players relevant to either Posada's case or determining where the BBWAA's in-out line is? All those players had other factors for their candidacies that aren't covered by the HOF standards test: catastrophic off the field injuries that ended their career, pioneer credit, reputation as an incredible fielder, or all three.


Yes, for the exact reason you listed. Posada is below 40, and the guys who are below 40 that go in, are guys who have a story behind them.

Of course Posada also has a story, basically a season of batting in the post season, a catcher which naturally is going to get fewer war anyway. I think Posada will do well, but he's not going to go in.
   42. Tuque Posted: January 12, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4035763)
Posada might get "non-roider" credit too. Though if he really wanted that he should have tried to be a little whiter.
   43. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: January 12, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4035788)
Keith Moon.
Unless you think the Who's version of "Barbara Ann" was something less than awesome.
But you would be wrong.
   44. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: January 12, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4035810)
Roger Taylor from Queen


He had incredible range. He did the high "Galileo" and "...for me..." in Bohemian Rhapsody.

And I'll second Karen Carpenter.
   45. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: January 12, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4035814)
There's an anti-food stamp thread? Damn, we really will talk about anything.


Is that the Castro thread? Shouldn't they be on to how much better his health care is than ours by now?
   46. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: January 12, 2012 at 11:14 PM (#4035816)
Posada might get "non-roider" credit too. Though if he really wanted that he should have tried to be a little whiter.


I assume Mark McGwire and Roger Clemens don't count as fully white due to their Irish blood. That's ok, I'm not here to judge, and besides I'm about as big a fan of Thomas Nast's work as you're likely to find on a baseball forum.
   47. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 12, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4035824)
Of course Posada also has a story, basically a season of batting in the post season, a catcher which naturally is going to get fewer war anyway. I think Posada will do well, but he's not going to go in.


Bernie Williams had 48 on the Standards test and the same story, along with a better batting record in the postseason, and he didn't crack 10% in his first year.

That said, I pretty much agree with you, Jorge should stick on the ballot but not really get close with the writers.
   48. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 12, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4035830)
Levon Helm has to be number one on the list, though, with Phil Collins Don Henley a close second

ff
   49. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4035858)
Levon Helm has to be number one on the list, though, with Don Henley a close second


I don't agree with Mojo Nixon on everything, but I do agree with him on some things.
   50. Dale Sams Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4035980)
For the two people who may not have heard it...Collins 'Golden Slumbers' is remarkable.
   51. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4035988)
Ben Folds is known as a pianist, but went to college on a percussion scholarship and made his living for a while as a session drummer. He's gotta be on the list somewhere.

Speaking of Ben Folds, Darren Jessee went from a drummer with Ben Folds Five to a frontman in Hotel Lights.
   52. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4035992)
A couple semi-obscure alt-rock drummers who sing: Janet Weiss (Quasi) and Jason Hammel (Mates of State).
   53. JJ1986 Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4036005)
Posada might get "non-roider" credit too. Though if he really wanted that he should have tried to be a little whiter.


Urine on the hands is a PED.
   54. Nasty Nate Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4036017)
######-A Levon can sing...

Chris Cornell used to be a drummer, and then his voice was awesome...now I doubt either is true.
   55. Dale Sams Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4036036)
Then there's singers who *can* drum, but don't really...like McCartney, and I think Peter Gabriel can play.
   56. Swedish Chef Posted: January 13, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4036068)
A couple semi-obscure alt-rock drummers who sing: Janet Weiss (Quasi) and Jason Hammel (Mates of State).

Lou Barlow
   57. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4036105)
Andy Sturmer from Jellyfish played a stand-up drum kit of sorts while he sang.

Pudge with the Yankees was sort of the opposite of Jimmy Nichol.
   58. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4036114)
Also, everyone in Sloan sings their own stuff, although Andrew Scott switches off the drums when he's the lead singer.
   59. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:32 PM (#4036136)
Neko Case started as a drummer.

Prince is a damn good drummer.
Stevie Wonder can play a little, too.
   60. Kurt Posted: January 13, 2012 at 12:49 PM (#4036155)
Jack White plays drums for the Dead Weather, though of course he's not their lead singer.

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