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Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Could Acuna win NL MVP Award as rookie?

For a while, I was riding the Cardinals’ Matt Carpenter NL MVP Award bandwagon (if only because it serves great homemade salsa). Lately, it feels like Christian Yelich’s late-season push for the Brew Crew might be enough to propel him to the honor. But we’ve still got 2 1/2 weeks left, and that’s plenty of time for a hot hitter to leave a lasting impression. The assumption all along is that the NL MVP Award is going to be won with the benefit of a home-stretch surge.

Which brings us back to Acuna, whose NL MVP Award argument is rooted in the fact that he’s carried the Braves on his back at this most crucial juncture of the year.

The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: September 12, 2018 at 03:26 PM | 69 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: braves, mvp, phenoms, ronald acuna

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   1. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 12, 2018 at 04:14 PM (#5743092)
No.
   2. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 04:20 PM (#5743098)
Yep. No.
   3. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5743100)
Give it to Jose Altuve!
   4. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: September 12, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5743108)
If you don't bother to even mention Javy Baez, I kind of feel like your MVP column probably doesn't offer much insight.
   5. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 04:43 PM (#5743116)
The NL MVP is wide open this year. If a pitcher doesn't get it, they should just make the rules reflect that pitchers are not allowed to get it.
   6. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 12, 2018 at 04:44 PM (#5743117)
Nor did the article mention any pitchers and Scherzer, Nola, and Degrom lead in WAR in the NL. But Acuna is not even close to the leading position players.
   7. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5743123)
I hope he does win it. Not just because I'm a Braves fan. It would be fun to see you guys seethe about it.
   8. bfan Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5743131)
Yes, he can and yes he should be under consideration.

Javy Baez needs to learn how to take a walk; wake me up when his on base percentage crosses the .333 threshold.

No one blinked an eye when fangraphs pushed Chris Sale this week as a Cy Young contender, with his 147 innings and major time not on the active roster this year.

Acuna would be 1st in OPS in the NL right now (as a LF/CF, with the current leader a player who plays 1B), if he had enough AB's-his level of play has been as high as anyone's, so the argument for "no" is: he missed the first week of the season, while in Gwinnett (no comment); he missed a month while injured (true, and so did Chris Sale); and...what?

If you score bonus points in this race for what you do later in the season, when contention becomes clear, Acuna post ASB OPS is 1.118; Baez is .884
   9. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:19 PM (#5743133)
I hope not, for his own sake - if he dares to win the MVP as a rookie, the Marlins are going to kill him with a pitch the first time they see him next year. And Keith Hernandez will be fine with it.
   10. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:22 PM (#5743135)
No one blinked an eye when fangraphs pushed Chris Sale this week as a Cy Young contender, with his 147 innings and major time not on the active roster this year.


No one paid any attention when fangraphs pushed Chris Sale this week as a Cy Young contender, with his 147 innings and major time not on the active roster this year.
   11. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:32 PM (#5743141)
Javy Baez needs to learn how to take a walk; wake me up when his on base percentage crosses the .333 threshold.


5.4 WAR to 4.3.
   12. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:33 PM (#5743142)
Javy Baez needs to learn how to take a walk; wake me up when his on base percentage crosses the .333 threshold.

Is your point that if he had Carpenter's - or even Acuna's - walk rate that he'd be running away as a clear favorite? If so, then I agree. The fact that's he's still right there in WAR and not further behind the other real MVP candidates in most other weighted offensive stats - while arguably being the most valuable/best defender in the race - in spite of his low OBP should prove that ruling anyone out because of one thing is dumb.

I mean, we might as well not consider Yelich or Carpenter since they're both showing as having negative defensive value this year. BTW, Javy's OBP is above league average.
   13. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: September 12, 2018 at 05:48 PM (#5743150)
Acuna would be 1st in OPS in the NL right now (as a LF/CF, with the current leader a player who plays 1B), if he had enough AB's-his level of play has been as high as anyone's, so the argument for "no" is: he missed the first week of the season, while in Gwinnett (no comment); he missed a month while injured (true, and so did Chris Sale); and...what?

Feel free to look up the rules for MVP voting and pay particular attention to (2).
   14. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:00 PM (#5743157)
Freeman should get it over Acuna in my opinion; though I admit I hadn't realized his WAR was so high. I like Acuna and I think he will win some MVP's in the future. Goldschmidt is also a good choice. Baez is really good no doubt but his K/BB ratio is ghastly. I get he's a great baseball player though despite his weaknesses and if he won, it wouldn't be a travesty. Just not who I would vote for.
   15. JJ1986 Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:06 PM (#5743159)
If pitchers can win MVPs and players on 4th place teams can win MVPs, then pitchers on 4th place teams can win MVPs when they are clearly the most valuable player in the league.
   16. bfan Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:11 PM (#5743160)
5.4 WAR to 4.3.


well, then, let's just the MVP to Lorenzo Cain (6.3 to 5.4) and end the discussion.
   17. bfan Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:14 PM (#5743161)
Feel free to look up the rules for MVP voting and pay particular attention to (2).


Okay, fine, Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis are each on track to play 162 games. So, do you have them share the award or give it to Freddie?

Look, the point is that just about everybody has an argument or two for their case, and a flaw or 2. I would say Acuna has clearly been a better player than Baez, but over fewer games. Baez has been a better player than Freeman, but over fewer games than Freeman. Rock, paper, scissors, there you go.

Nola has the best WAR, if that is what you want, but he is a pitcher who will more than likely be on a team that finishes outside of the play-off picture, so there are his virtues and flaws. The same may apply to Schertzer too.

I was being snarky about Baez; of course he should be in the conversation, as should Acuna be. At the end of the season you lay each players' virtues, flaws and arguments on the table, and, as we all know, may the best Cub, Red Sox or Yankee win.
   18. Man o' Schwar Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:52 PM (#5743175)
At the end of the season you lay each players' virtues, flaws and arguments on the table, and, as we all know, may the best Cub, Red Sox or Yankee win.

That's just silly. Going back to 1986 (so 32 years before this year):

Yankee MVPs: ARod (2007, 2005)
Boston MVPs: Pedroia (2008), Vaughn (1995), Clemens (1986)
Cubs MVPs: Bryant (2016), Sosa (1998), Dawson (1987)

And I stretched it from 30 to 32 years just to get Clemens and Dawson in. Otherwise it would be 2 per team in the last 30 years. Detroit had more MVPs just this decade. The Giants have had 8 since 1989. Oakland had 4, from 4 different players, since 1988.

You can claim big team bias all you want, but it's not really borne out. There have been plenty of years where players from these teams could have been MVP but lost out to (arguably) less qualified players (Pedro in 2000, Jeter or Nomar in 1998, etc.).
   19. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:58 PM (#5743179)
Yes he can, but unless he does something extra-ordinary here in last couple weeks, he will have to be satisfied with rookie of the year.

Having said that I would be fine if he won. He’s very exciting to watch and clearly, apart from WAR, one of the most valuable players in the game.
   20. bfan Posted: September 12, 2018 at 06:58 PM (#5743180)
I guess I had just had my fill of Chris Sale, J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts fawning for the week. May their 3-fold luminosity hurt each others vote totals, such that Mike Trout and Blake Snell walk away with the hardware.
   21. QLE Posted: September 12, 2018 at 07:11 PM (#5743185)
5.4 WAR to 4.3.


In 155 more plate appearances (27.2% of Baez's plate appearances this year) and 346.1 more defensive innings (30.2% of Baez's defensive innings this year)- note that when we use WAA instead of WAR, the difference shrinks to 3.5 versus 3.0.
   22. McCoy Posted: September 12, 2018 at 07:59 PM (#5743208)
Yes, how dare playing more be valuable.
   23. Ziggy's screen name Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:50 PM (#5743230)
There really just aren't any good candidates this year. Give it to a pitcher.

In the AL I'm starting to think that Snell actually will win the Cy Young Award. His ERA is a good bit lower than the contenders who have pitched more innings than he has, and he's got a substantial win advantage over Sale. (Leading the league with 19 after today.) If it was over today, I'd guess Snell, Kluber, Sale.
   24. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:57 PM (#5743233)
The fact that's he's still right there in WAR and not further behind the other real MVP candidates


Well except that Scherzer, Nola and DeGrom are miles ahead of any position player.

Ziggy is spot on. No one is lapping the field, just give to a pitcher who actually deserves it.

Where is that toy/thingy where you can plug in a pitcher's stats with another team's offense? I'd like to know what DeGrom would be if he'd been throwing for the Red Sox this year? Dude would be like 21-3 or something insanely good. Sure, wins don't mean much, but still it looks good.
   25. PreservedFish Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:59 PM (#5743234)
I believe I'd vote DeGrom, Nola and Scherzer 1-2-3 in some order.
   26. TomH Posted: September 12, 2018 at 09:23 PM (#5743247)
Listen...
a pitcher has NEVER WON an MVP award when they were not on a playoff team.

this will hold true in 2018 as well. And probably a long time after that.
   27. PreservedFish Posted: September 12, 2018 at 10:08 PM (#5743276)
Not with that attitude.
   28. Sweatpants Posted: September 12, 2018 at 11:05 PM (#5743325)
Listen...
a pitcher has NEVER WON an MVP award when they were not on a playoff team.

this will hold true in 2018 as well. And probably a long time after that.
I was going to cheat and say Dazzy Vance, but then I remembered Hal Newhouser.

A 29-win season from wartime baseball almost 75 years ago probably isn't predicative for 2018 award voting, though.
   29. Howie Menckel Posted: September 12, 2018 at 11:40 PM (#5743350)
I can't believe there is even an issue - I thought it had been ordained that the God of WAR determines all results. no need to waste further discussion.
   30. Rusty Priske Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:49 AM (#5743391)
It should be a pitcher.
   31. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 13, 2018 at 09:20 AM (#5743405)
Nolan Arenado had been having a quiet September, but in the last two nights, he's had four doubles and a homer against one of the Rockies' two closest rivals.
   32. TomH Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5743450)
Okay, I should have said once the pitchers got their own award (Cy Young), which has suppressed pitcher-for-MVP awards
   33. BDC Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:16 AM (#5743466)
There really just aren't any good candidates this year. Give it to a pitcher


Strange fragmentation of the leaderboards in the NL, and kind of meh totals. Eugenio Suarez leads in RBI with 101, and is having a good year, but doesn't stand out as an MVP candidate. Charlie Blackmon leads in Runs with 107: he's also having a decent year at the plate, but bWAR seems to think that Blackmon has become the worst outfielder in the history of outfielding, so he's nearly at replacement level overall. Does that check out? Is Blackmon terrible in the field this year? I saw him just once this year and he looked ordinary.
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5743483)
Charlie Blackmon leads in Runs with 107: he's also having a decent year at the plate, but bWAR seems to think that Blackmon has become the worst outfielder in the history of outfielding, so he's nearly at replacement level overall. Does that check out? Is Blackmon terrible in the field this year? I saw him just once this year and he looked ordinary.

Given that being an awful OF only requires missing one highly catchable play per week, it's very hard to tell by sight, unless you watch a ton of games.
   35. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:38 AM (#5743495)
At this point, Blackmon is not a plus centerfielder, but he's not a liability out there either. I'd put him at about a C-minus. Defensive metrics never like outfielders in Coors; the previous worst outfielder of all time was Brad Hawpe, who had a -3.4 DWAR in 2008. I honestly don't know if they're park-adjusted or not, but they should be.

Bb-ref seems to think the Rockies are a very poor defensive team, with an aggregate -3.7 DWAR. If that's remotely true, they have the greatest pitching staff in history.

Nolan Arenado in particular has just 0.5 DWAR, after being above 2.0 in each of the first five seasons of his career (and 2.3 or higher in each of his full seasons). In raw numbers, Nolan leads the league in just about everything - assists, range factor, DPs, putouts. If DWAR thought he was having a normal defensive year for him, he'd be the frontrunner for MVP honors among the position players.
   36. rconn23 Posted: September 13, 2018 at 10:58 AM (#5743504)
Christian Yelich is the MVP. Don't @ me.
   37. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:01 AM (#5743505)
The best teams in the NL are the Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Brewers and Dodgers? Yeesh. Whchever team comes out of the AL should win the WS easily.
   38. BDC Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5743509)
Given that being an awful OF only requires missing one highly catchable play per week, it's very hard to tell by sight, unless you watch a ton of games


Granted, but Blackmon's at -27 Rfield. He should look like Pete Incaviglia's grandfather out there :-D

Tom's theory about Coors illusions makes sense here.
   39. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5743511)
I remember being shocked when someone here pointed out that the Rockies, by ERA+ and OPS+, have had generally much better pitchers than hitters over the years. Definitely something strange still happening with the numbers.
   40. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:16 AM (#5743529)
Christian Yelich is having an average peak Bobby Abreu season. As much as I appreciate their contributions, Abreu never sniffed top ten In MVP votes. This would have to be the outlier of all outlier years for Yelich to be a no brainer MVP, as I assume that #36 is saying.
   41. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5743539)
Too bad the Phillies have cratered, or else Nola would make a great consensus choice. He's got the overall WAR lead, plus he is by far the best player on the Phillies so he's got a great narrative.

BWar

Nola 8.8
Arrieta 3.2
...
(Five pitchers!)
...
Cesar Hernandez (Top position player): 1.6
   42. Ziggy's screen name Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5743560)

Cesar Hernandez (Top position player): 1.6


I thought "Rhys Hoskins plays for the Phillies, that can't be right"!

Hoskins has 0.4 bWAR, despite a 362/499 line. Because he's also got -25 Rfield (in addition to his positional penalty). Yikes! Talk about Pete Incaviglia all you want, but he never had a season that was even half that bad. Even Adam Dunn only "beat" it twice. If that's anywhere near his true fielding level, the only way for the Phillies to maximize the value that he can produce for him would be to trade him to an American League team.
   43. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5743570)
Phillies team FIP: 3.84
Team ERA: 3.96

I would have expected a larger discrepancy.
   44. rconn23 Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5743571)
"Christian Yelich is having an average peak Bobby Abreu season. As much as I appreciate their contributions, Abreu never sniffed top ten In MVP votes."


Bobby Abreu was awesome and was playing in a time when there were some elite seasons produced by the players he was competing against for MVP. No NL position player this year is elite. You could also go Cain, Carpenter or Goldy, but I'm not buying Baez. Otherwise, give it to one of the three pitchers.
   45. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5743579)
I noted this in another thread, but Nola's bWAR simply isn't right.

It would...mean that pitching in front of an average defense, Nola would have a 1.60 ERA and a 259 ERA+ -- the 6th best ERA+ of all time, in line with Greg Maddux's 1995, Gibson's 1968, or Walter Johnson's 1913. That part is even harder for me to believe. The problem is that, if I am reading this correctly, B-R just takes the runs saved (or given up) by the defense and allocates them proportionally to all the pitchers on the team based on BIP, without looking at the PBP data for each individual pitcher. That seems like a bad way to allocate value and make award decisions, and reflects a lot of false precision.

I mean, do we really think that Nola, whose ERA is already 0.53 runs below his FIP, has been affected by the defense to the same extent as Nick Pivetta, whose ERA is a full run above his FIP? Or is it more likely that bad defense is not evenly allocated amongst the pitchers on a staff?


Nola is "only" at 5.3 fWAR (compared to 7.7 for deGrom and 6.6 for Scherzer). It's hard for me to imagine giving him the MVP award when the two value metrics differ by so much. Fact is, Nola gets a lot of extra credit from bWAR (0.61 R/9) for pitching in front of a terrible Phillies' defense, even though he does not appear to have actually been hurt by that defense.
   46. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5743625)
Bobby Abreu was awesome and was playing in a time when there were some elite seasons produced by the players he was competing against for MVP.


Abreu received MVP votes in five different season. His highest finish,12th, was as a 35 year old closing out his career in Anaheim. In the five seasons he received votes, the winners were Chipper Jones(1999), Barry Bonds(2001), Barry Bonds(2003), Barry Bonds(2004), Albert Pujols(2005), Alex Rodriguez(2007), and Joe Mauer(2009.)
   47. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5743650)
Worth noting that Nola's ERA is considerably lower than his FIP, suggesting that he's benefited from some nice defense, no matter what's going on when his teammates are pitching. A .253 BABIP is well beyond the capability of most starters to limit via their own skills. Perhaps the defenders are still inept, and it's just been luck. But either way, tough to see him deserving any extra credit.
   48. bfan Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5743656)
Nolan Arenado had been having a quiet September, but in the last two nights, he's had four doubles and a homer against one of the Rockies' two closest rivals.


This race is so close that I think one guy who does some great things in a few important games that put his team over the top may distinguish that one guy (such as if Baez or Bryant had hit a 3 run walk-off HR last night; that sort of thing). So, unless the Braves come back to earth here, Acuna and Freeman will be hurt by that factor, while players on the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals and the 3 teams in the west are helped by it.
   49. Ziggy's screen name Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5743660)
IIRC ballots are due at the end of the regular season. I wonder how far in advance they actually get sent in. Hard to see sportswriters watching game 162 and then running down to UPS to overnight them to the BBWAA office. It could be that the last few games of the season don't count for awards, because the ballots are already in the mail.
   50. bfan Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5743663)
DeGrom would be if he'd been throwing for the Red Sox this year? Dude would be like 21-3


Since Snell is 19-5 for the Rays, I think 21-3 is underselling DeGrom's Red Sox record.
   51. bfan Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5743669)
I noted this in another thread, but Nola's bWAR simply isn't right.


Thank you for raising this. I have noted that the difference between Nola and Mike Foltynewicz of the Braves is 5.5 WAR (9.2 to 3.7), although lining up their raw stats does not suggest nearly that big of an advantage. Your are basically saying that, under this year's metrics, Nola= Folty + Trevor Bauer. That just doesn't seem correct.
   52. bfan Posted: September 13, 2018 at 01:56 PM (#5743684)
Abreu received MVP votes in five different season. His highest finish,12th, was as a 35 year old closing out his career in Anaheim. In the five seasons he received votes, the winners were Chipper Jones(1999), Barry Bonds(2001), Barry Bonds(2003), Barry Bonds(2004), Albert Pujols(2005), Alex Rodriguez(2007), and Joe Mauer (2009.)


No slouches that that group, and no dishonor losing to those guys.
   53. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5743692)

DeGrom would be if he'd been throwing for the Red Sox this year? Dude would be like 21-3

The Mets are bad this year but deGrom is also the victim of some simple bad luck. Thor is 11-3 with a 3.44 ERA and Wheeler is 11-7 with a 3.23.
   54. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: September 13, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5743764)
No slouches that that group, and no dishonor losing to those guys.


It's also worth mentioning that MVP voters of that era were far less sabr-friendly than even the current crop who hand out end of year honors. Abreu was tagged early in his career as being "lazy" by Philly area sports writers, and the label stuck nationally through the prime of his career. He was a poor defender at best. He debuted with some very bad teams, and the Phillies never made the playoffs when he was with them in his prime. Add all of that up, and put his very, very good offensive numbers in the context of "but then there was Barry..." and you get a highly underrated player who never got much consideration for MVP type honors.

To put it another, the guy hit .335/.446/.549 with only slightly bad defense (5.7 bWAR) in 1999. But his team finished 26 games behind Atlanta, in a season where Chipper Jones hit .319/.441/.633. And most of Chipper's production was backloaded to the stretch run, where he more or less single-handedly destroyed the Mets' dreams of taking the division. But that said, he also finished well behind Greg Vaughn, Jay Bell and Sean Casey that year too, which was probably bias and ignorance by the voters.
   55. Rally Posted: September 13, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5743773)
a pitcher has NEVER WON an MVP award when they were not on a playoff team.


It's as good a year as any to have the first. There just isn't a position player candidate that I can get behind. I'd like to see:

Cy: deGrom
MVP: Scherzer

How? If deGrom ends up with the best pitching stats by a hair, then Scherzer's 270/303/302 batting line puts him ahead of Jake's 177/215/194 as an overall player.
   56. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 13, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5743823)
Arenado with another homer in the first against Arizona this afternoon, so in his last nine at-bats in critical games against a division rival, he's got four doubles and two homers.
   57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 13, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5743854)
I thought "Rhys Hoskins plays for the Phillies, that can't be right"!

Hoskins has 0.4 bWAR, despite a 362/499 line. Because he's also got -25 Rfield (in addition to his positional penalty). Yikes! Talk about Pete Incaviglia all you want, but he never had a season that was even half that bad. Even Adam Dunn only "beat" it twice. If that's anywhere near his true fielding level, the only way for the Phillies to maximize the value that he can produce for him would be to trade him to an American League team.


Fangraphs has him at 2.6 WAR. UZR at -12 vs DRS -25. I'd take that -25 with a good helping of salt.
   58. Rally Posted: September 13, 2018 at 05:05 PM (#5743875)
Or play at first base where he belongs. Santana signing was a bad fit at the time and looks worse now.
   59. Rally Posted: September 13, 2018 at 05:08 PM (#5743878)
Statcast outs above average has Hoskins at -18. Blackmon not terrible at -6.

Baseball Savant should be the first place you look when you don’t buy DRS or UZR. At least for OF, but it looks like Tango Tiger is making progress on using that data for infielders.
   60. Sweatpants Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:10 PM (#5744148)
Abreu[...] was a poor defender at best.
Abreu was one of the better defensive right fielders in the league during his time in Philly, or at least that's how I remember it. It wasn't until he went to the Yankees that he became known as the guy who was afraid of the wall.
   61. PreservedFish Posted: September 13, 2018 at 11:52 PM (#5744155)
Abreu was one of the better defensive right fielders in the league during his time in Philly, or at least that's how I remember it.


Me too.
   62. SoSH U at work Posted: September 14, 2018 at 08:56 AM (#5744196)
I'd split that. He was a good defensive outfielder in Philly, but he never liked the wall (which is one reason the guy played 160 games every damn year. The wall is hard).

   63. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 14, 2018 at 09:20 AM (#5744209)
I've mentioned this before, but Abreu was literally one of the most durable players in MLB history. Shying away from the wall seems to have been a good idea.
   64. Walt Davis Posted: September 17, 2018 at 04:30 AM (#5745402)
#59... An important thing to keep in mind for statcast is that it compares to the average of. So Blackmon at -6 is poor for a cf , saying something like he is worse than the average RF. That's still not as bad as his dwar suggests, but that is a fairer comp than rfield.
   65. McCoy Posted: September 17, 2018 at 08:05 AM (#5745410)
Abreu became a "problem" when he got the big contract and the Phillies under performed. At that point sports radio in Philly started focusing on his supposed flaws. He was never a public leader, he wasn't fiery, and he did very very few interviewing in English. It was around 2003 when he started getting the reputation that he wouldn't crash into the wall.

Then along came Shane Victorino who was kind of the bizzarro Bobby abreu in that he seemed to never be able to avoid the wall.
   66. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 17, 2018 at 09:22 AM (#5745433)
Victorino managed to play in 150 games in a season three times in his career. Abreu did it 15 times.
   67. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: September 17, 2018 at 10:09 AM (#5745453)
Then along came Shane Victorino who was kind of the bizzarro Bobby abreu in that he seemed to never be able to avoid the wall.

Victorino as well as Aaron "Broken Nose" Rowand. A real sea change.
   68. McCoy Posted: September 17, 2018 at 12:47 PM (#5745601)
Rowand was the other guy I was thinking about who as you said crashed into the wall in I think the first month or so after he came to Philly. The Philly sports world loved it but neglected to factor in that he ended up missing two weeks of games because of it and wasn't the same hitter that year that he was before the crash. But gee golly the guy had fire in his belly!
   69. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 17, 2018 at 12:51 PM (#5745612)
Philly sports world loved it but neglected to factor in that he ended up missing two weeks of games because of it and wasn't the same hitter that year that he was before the crash. But gee golly the guy had fire in his belly!
"I remember that Aaron Rowand, hell of a player. He used to hit the wall when he was coming IN on a ball! True story, I saw it myself. He was running in on a ball, Rollins was going back, and BOOM! Both of 'em hit the wall. How did the wall get there? Aaron Rowand made it happen, that's how. Now gimme another beer, I wanna puke on this girl in front of us."

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