Now this would be an intriguing challenge trade, although I see it as a big win for the Sox. On the other hand, Rasmus has a hideous K-rate.

he's 23 years old. he'll get better.

he's 23 years old. he'll get better.

Jeff Francouer at age 23: 293/338/444. It's been all downhill since.

Has there been a true rumor about what the White Sox are up to in the last decade? They seem very good at preventing leaks.

With LaRussa returning to St. Louis there are going to be a lot of rumors about trades for Rasmus. He's a player I'd like to see the Red Sox target, but what would St. Louis want? I'm guessing that they'd be looking for someone they see as an everyday CFer (and wonder how they feel about Ellsbury), but I'm not familiar enough with the strengths of their roster and farm to know what else they'd be looking for.

Edit: I'll add that if the rumors about the Red Sox's interest in Crawford aren't just smoke and mirrors, it makes sense to me that they'd sign him to provide a similar (but better) profile in LF and deal Ellsbury, who despite a lost year probably still has the most value of the ML pieces they have to deal...

According to a major league scout, Williams has targeted talented, but headline-making, Colby Rasmus, of the St. Louis Cardinals, and was willing to part with a package that included Carlos Quentin.

I guess that wouldn't be too bad, as long as that package includes John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham.

Yeah, I can't believe that St. Louis would give up four years of Rasmus for Quentin's two final arb years, straight up. Plus, Rasmus is one of John Mozeliak's guys. Just because he doesn't get along with TLR doesn't mean that the organization will want to trade him for fifty cents on the dollar.

What, did the NL adopt the designated hitter early this morning when I was asleep?

Pass.

First the Stanton-Ozzie rumor, now the Quentin-Rasmus rumor. Imagine if the White Sox somehow pull off both, you wold have to rate the White Sox division favorites right? Who else would be able to get at least .850 OPS with great D from two of their three outfielders with a good to great pitching staff?

What, did the NL adopt the designated hitter early this morning when I was asleep?

Funny that you'd say that today...

Hell, Quentin for Pujols almost makes more sense from the Cards' perspective (at least you could hide Quentin at 1B).

Quentin's a rare bird in the Chone and UZR agree. In just 2/3 a season in the field last year, UZR puts him at -23 and Chone at -20. I'll go out on a limb and say he stinks.

In fairness, the article does say Quentin would be part of a package. That package would almost certainly have to include Beckham or Viciedo (I assume the Cards aren't that interested in Flowers). Those address big needs for the Cards. And it's the sort of package that somebody like Cowley would view Quentin as the big name from the Sox perspective.

You know, the Cardinals do have a history of trading really talented players who can't get along with the manager or the owner for pennies on the dollar. Players a hell of a lot better than Colby Rasmus, in fact.

I believe Viciedo has 36 walks in over a 1000 professional plate appearances and can't really play 3B aka plays 1B. Which means stay far far away.

Cards have no use for Quentin as he is brutal defensively.

But Danks/Floyd and Beckham/Ramirez sounds good.

Dream scenario as a Cardinal fan would seem to be something like taking the two big pieces AA has acquired in his time there in Yunel and Morrow and getting them for Rasmus and a piece.

You know, the Cardinals do have a history of trading really talented players who can't get along with the manager or the owner for pennies on the dollar. Players a hell of a lot better than Colby Rasmus, in fact.

Well, no one got along with Hornsby. You almost described their decision to dump Harry Caray, though.

But Danks/Floyd and Beckham/Ramirez sounds good.

Rasmus is better than Quentin, but let's not go crazy about his value.

That package would almost certainly have to include Beckham or Viciedo (I assume the Cards aren't that interested in Flowers). Those address big needs for the Cards. And it's the sort of package that somebody like Cowley would view Quentin as the big name from the Sox perspective.

Viciedo maybe, but, as #13 says, Viciedo's kind of an iffy talent given his walk rate. Beckham, no, I think virtually anybody surrounding the Sox recognizes him as a budding superstar/MVP-candidate in the making.

Geez Sam ... reaching back to the Whitey days was already stretching it, reaching back to the all-whitey days is really pushing it. I'm not sure those moves tell us much about the 2011 Cards. :-)

I don't remember if they had anything to do with LaRussa clashes, but trades of Drew, Haren, Polanco and a couple others are a sign the Cards during LaRussa's tenure have been willing to trade young MLBers to get what they want.

Isn't Morel the logical return?

Beckham, no, I think virtually anybody surrounding the Sox recognizes him as a budding superstar/MVP-candidate in the making.

Kind of like Colby Rasmus.

Kind of like Colby Rasmus.

Oh, sure, I'm not saying Beckham for Rasmus wouldn't be a fair trade. I'm just saying that if the Sox were offering Beckham and Quentin for Rasmus, the Chicago media wouldn't report that as a deal centered on Quentin.

But Danks/Floyd and Beckham/Ramirez sounds good.

I'm a fan of Rasmus, but Danks would be the best player traded in the deal.

I'm a fan of Rasmus, but Danks would be the best player traded in the deal.

Maybe. But Rasmus just came off a season where he put up a 132 OPS+ and is pretty much an average defensive CF. Do you take that or 200 innings of 120 ERA+? Then add in that Rasmus is two years further away from free agency and pitchers in general tend to be more risky. I'd take Rasmus but maybe that is just me. And it wasn't really something I put out there seriously, the sounds good was kind of a "duh" thing, like "duh" as in why the hell would the Cardinals even entertain an offer of revolving around Quentin for Rasmus. The Cardinals already have their two best position players based around the easiest defensive position and Quentin has been brutal in the field the past two seasons.

Dream scenario as a Cardinal fan would seem to be something like taking the two big pieces AA has acquired in his time there in Yunel and Morrow and getting them for Rasmus and a piece.

Well, the real dream scenario, of course, is not trading Colby Rasmus.

I think, even around here, a lot of people don't recognize just how good Rasmus is. (I mean, John Danks?! He's a nice pitcher, but, come on.) He's coming off a year where he led all MLB CFs in OPS and Batting Runs, at the age of 23. And it's not like he came out of nowhere--he was BA's #3 prospect before his rookie year. He had some defensive miscues this year, but the year before TZ had him ranked as the best defensive CF in the NL. Here are all the center fielders since 1900 to put up a 130 OPS+ or better (min. 502 PAs) at age 23 or younger:

Tris Speaker
Ty Cobb
Al Simmons
Mel Ott
Joe DiMaggio
Pete Reiser
Duke Snider
Mickey Mantle
Willie Mays
Vada Pinson
Jim Wynn
Paul Blair
Rick Monday
Dusty Baker
Cesar Cedeno
Fred Lynn
Lloyd Moseby
Ellis Burks
Ken Griffey
Juan Gonzalez
Grady Sizemore
B.J. Upton
Colby Rasmus

Now, that doesn't guarantee that a guy's going to be a Hall of Famer (the Upton comp is troubling), but still, that's an awfully good list to be on.

I don't remember if they had anything to do with LaRussa clashes, but trades of Drew, Haren, Polanco and a couple others are a sign the Cards during LaRussa's tenure have been willing to trade young MLBers to get what they want.

None of those are really good comparables, though: Drew was traded a year before free agency when the team finally got tired of waiting for a healthy year out of him (and got a pretty fair return). Polanco was thought of as a role player, who the team dropped in order to get a major upgrade at the position. And while the Haren trade was stupid, nobody, but nobody, thought Haren was going to turn out as good as he has.

I think, even around here, a lot of people don't recognize just how good Rasmus is. (I mean, John Danks?! He's a nice pitcher, but, come on.)

Kind of funny how your first sentence is followed by that remark in parentheses. John Danks has put up 12 WAR over the past three seasons. Without looking it up, I'd doubt that there's more than 10-15 pitchers who have done the same.

(Which is to say nothing towards the proposed Danks for Rasmus deal. When considering contracts and league service time, Rasmus appears to gain an edge, but the two aren't far enough away in value to simply scoff (okay -- you didn't really "scoff") at the former.)

There are a couple of things to be worried about with Rasmus:

1) He played in the worst division in baseball meaning that you might want to read that 132 OPS+ as something more like maybe a 127 OPS+ (just guessing). Not a big deal but worth noting.

2) He would sometimes hit .260-ish in the minors even when not striking out as much as he did last year. In other words his .358 BABIP from last year doesn't seem to be a holdover from his minor league career. So while there are a few guys that can keep it up there in that range (Abreu, Jeter, Thome) past history suggests Rasmus probably ain't one of them. His minor league career rate is .322 and that tends to be higher in the minors in general.

3) His lefty splits aren't awful but they're not exactly great, though they were much better last year.

My old projection system comes up with a .258/.337/.454 for Rasmus next year without using any MLEs for him (I doubt those would help him any). So I think Quentin should be expected to be a better hitter than him next year, though obviously there's a huge difference in gloves. So a Quentin for Rasmus deal straight up sounds like a good deal for the White Sox, but it doesn't sound like that's what is on the table.

So Quentin is likely to be projected 8 runs better with the bat than Rasmus next season (CHONE last updated them with 9 run difference at the end of August and after that Rasmus put up a 158 OPS+ in 124 PA while Quentin put up a 147 OPS+ in 71 PA), while the positional change over 150 games is 9 runs in Rasmus' favor, then Rasmus is average in CF while Quentin is roughly we'll say -13 in a corner. Throw another run in for Rasmus being a better baserunner. Rasmus projects as a 1.5 wins better while being two further years away from free agency. That really isn't close, is it?

Of course Williams would love to make Quentin the centerpiece of a package for Rasmus; he's been a replacement-level player the past couple of years thanks mostly to his terrible defense, and now he's about to become expensive to boot. This deal has about as much chance of happening as a Lohse-for-Floyd swap.

*I was originally going to make a crack about Mozeliak putting together a package for Beckham that includes David Freese, but Beckham's WAR has him at sub-replacement last year and 0.9 in his abbreviated rookie year, much of that thanks to his terrible defense at two positions. Juan Pierre's uncharacteristicly great fielding aside, the White Sox have major issues on D, and it doesn't bode well for 2011 that neither Pierre nor Ramirez were even average defensive players prior to their good seasons last year.

And while the Haren trade was stupid, nobody, but nobody, thought Haren was going to turn out as good as he has.

Not quite on topic, but I'm sure there are a lot of Cardinal fans (most of us on primer, IIRC) who did expect Barton to become a star. On top of Haren's 4+ WAR average season since being dealt from the Cards, last year we got to watch Barton put up a 4.4 WAR year at the age of 24. All that plus Kiko Calero and $25+ million for a grand total of -1.4 WAR from Mulder.

That deal is about two seasons away from being worse than Brock for Broglio and is reason 1A why I don't miss Jocketty.

That really isn't close, is it?

Did I say it was? The problem is that Rasmus for Quentin straight up isn't on the table even by Cowley's article.

From a "buy low, sell high" standpoint, I just think it's the wrong time to pursue Rasmus. Maybe I'm wrong and he just gets better and better from here, but I'm not sold on that yet.

John Danks is 7th in MLB in pitching WAR (per B-R) over the last 3 seasons. Here is the top ten:

20.2 - Roy Halladay
16.8 - C.C. Sabathia
16.7 - Tim Lincecum
16.6 - Cliff Lee
16.3 - Felix Hernandez
16.2 - Jon Lester
16.1 - John Danks
15.6 - Zack Greinke
15.3 - Ubaldo Jimenez
14.4 - Johan Santana

Danks is also the second youngest pitcher in the top ten, after King Felix. To find another younger pitcher, you have to go all the way down to Jair Jurrjens at #30.

By any definition, Danks is definitely more than a "nice pitcher". I hope the Sox can finally sign him to a long term deal, rather than trading him for Rasmus, or just about anybody else.

Beckham's WAR has him at sub-replacement last year and 0.9 in his abbreviated rookie year, much of that thanks to his terrible defense at two positions.

This is why I don't like WAR. Beckham's defense was average at worst at both positions.

Danks is the sort of pitcher who is badly overrated by Rally's WAR. The big reason Danks does so well by rWAR compared to his ERA or his rather uninspiring peripherals is that, according to TZ, he's pitched in front of a very poor defense every year in the majors, so WAR adjusts his numbers upwards to "correct" for that. Except that, in the last three years, his BABIPs have been .295, .269, and .276, compared to league averages of .300, .300, and .294--so, if anything, he's being *helped* (quite a bit, some years) by his defense.

Juan Pierre's uncharacteristicly great fielding aside, the White Sox have major issues on D, and it doesn't bode well for 2011 that neither Pierre nor Ramirez were even average defensive players prior to their good seasons last year.

Not really. Their only real "major issue" is Quentin. In fact, there's reason to think the defense is moving in the right direction -- Morel's rep is as a very good defender at third (and in his September call-up, his defense did not disappoint), Ramirez is excellent (contrary to the quoted portion above) and there's little reason to believe Beckham won't be average or better at second-base going forward. The big problem, again, is getting Quentin's lead glove (and feet) out of right field.

Not really.

The White Sox were something like -30 fielding runs last year, with Pierre's good D almost perfectly balancing Quentin's bad. Ramirez had not been even an average fielder until last year, and Beckham has been around a win in the negative for each of the past two seasons, which means that anticipating average defense for him is probably wishful thinking.

The point is that aside from Floyd and Danks, there's really no one on the Sox' Major League roster who would bring a Rasmus-level player, and the Cardinals would have to be desperate to get rid of a cost-controlled Rasmus if his return is a good, but not great, established starting pitcher with all of the injury risks he would bring.

Needless to say, Quentin as a centerpiece for anyone of value is a joke even before taking salary into consideration.

You know, the Cardinals do have a history of trading really talented players who can't get along with the manager or the owner for pennies on the dollar.

He wasn't Rogers Hornsby with the bat, obviously, but I'd hardly call getting a decade plus of Frankie Frisch "pennies on the dollar".

Ramirez had not been even an average fielder until last year, and Beckham has been around a win in the negative for each of the past two seasons, which means that anticipating average defense for him is probably wishful thinking.

A couple of points mainly relating to the context that's required here, instead of just saying, "bad UZR = bar defender":

(a) Ramirez has been in the major leagues for three seasons now. 2008 was not only his first year in the States, but he was playing second-base for what was likely the first (extended) time in his career. In 2009, he was -- according to the stats -- somewhere around average (TZ has him slightly below, UZR slightly above). And this year, I'm not sure how you could watch Ramirez and come to any other conclusion that he wasn't well above average -- the fans rated him well, UZR loved him and David Cameron was even extremely complementary. Furthermore, it's probably worth noting that over the past decade, the Sox have not gone an extended period of time without a good defensive shortstop, going from Jose Valentin to Juan Uribe to Orlando Cabrera to Alexei Ramirez.

(b) Similarly, Beckham likely rated poorly in UZR (wait -- he was average in UZR and poor in TZ) in 2009 because it was his first time manning third-base. He was a SS throughout his college career, but to get him playing time the Sox moved him to third. In 2010, they moved him to another position he had not consistently played, so again, take what you will from his numbers there. I guess I'm going more on what I've read from various scouting folks, and they seem to think he'll be more than fine at second.

Beckham has been around a win in the negative for each of the past two seasons, which means that anticipating average defense for him is probably wishful thinking.

Even if Beckham were that bad defensively (and I don't think he was), in both 2009 and 2010 he was learning a position he had never played before, and in both years he improved noticeably as the season wore on.

Beckham has been around a win in the negative for each of the past two seasons

UZR had Beckham just under one RUN in the negative for 2010. His fielding percentage was just below average (.981 v. .984 - that works out to just under 2 more errors than you'd expect) and his range factor was better than league average (5.02/9inn v. lg-avg of 4.80). Just out of curiosity, what exactly did TZ hate so much about his defense this past season?