Cowlishaw should have answered in all-caps. Or all lower-case.

I think the Metroplex is probably the right market for Josh, given his internal battles and a supportive fan base, much of which is religious-based. The ballpark doesn't hurt, either. I think seeing what happened to Albert Pujols once he left his comfort zone will resonate with him...not to mention the circus Tim Tebow will experience in New York as opposed to Denver.

He's certainly an elite hitter, and he doesn't seem to give back much on defense; he can handle CF.

On the other hand, he's fragile.

I actually think the missed time in his 20s works in his favor. Less baseball wear on his body, and I think it's reasonable to believe that playing baseball puts more wear on the body in terms of baseball/aging than doing hard drugs does.

I think it's funny that his great postseason reputation is based on 1 postseason out of 6: the 2010 ALCS against the Yankees. In 4 of the other 5 series, he did nothing.

Well, if Scott Feldman had been able to get that last strike on Lance Berkman, then Josh would go down in history as the man who hit the series-winning homer, ending 50 years of Washington/Texas heartache. And on an injured groin no less. Unless that was the series where you say he did something.

And on cue, Hamilton goes yard again.

And on cue, Hamilton goes yard again.

He's on pace for 86 home runs. If he surpasses Maris, it will be proof that he did steroids.

I think it's funny that his great postseason reputation is based on 1 postseason out of 6: the 2010 ALCS against the Yankees.

He also came thisclose to hitting a series-winning HR in last year's World Series if Feldman could have retired Berkman in the bottom of the 10th. Although you're right that his overall performance in that series was nothing special (.241/.258/.414).

He's on pace for 86 home runs. If he surpasses Maris, it will be proof that he did steroids.

You really think he'd pollute his body like that?

You really think he'd pollute his body like that?

Of course not. As we know, professional athletes, and Hamilton in particular, are very careful about what goes into their bodies.

9 home runs in one week.

Has a player had a better hitting week? Bonds?

If Hamilton somehow gets 6 years and 150m we really are back into a silly contracts era. Dude hasn't played more than a 135 games since he was 27. I can see him getting 3 years at like 20m a year, maybe, but 6? Seriously? He makes Jose Reyes look durable.

eta: of course someone will give him 6/150 and I'll realize again I have no clue how they decide market price for high end free agents.

and if someone gives him 6/150 and he gets hurt or goes all adam dunn/albert pujols/joe mauer, then he'll just receive tons of endless shtt about how he's this greedy slime and why the team can't win blahblahblah

Prince got 9/214. Votto got 10/225. 6/150 includes a biiiigggg discount to make up for his fragility.

Werth got $126M, Crawford got $142M. Hamilton at 150M is a bargain compared to those. Even if he misses 30-40 games he probably amasses more value than either of those guys in a season.

Prince got 9/214. Votto got 10/225. 6/150 includes a biiiigggg discount to make up for his fragility.

A 6-year for Hamilton would cover ages 32-37; Prince's 9 years covers ages 28-36; Votto's is just insane as he's signed through age 39 with a team option for age 40. Hamilton for 6 years is not a discount for fragility, it's a discount for age.

In addition to fragility, the question with Hamilton is whether he is an "elite" hitter. Career 140 OPS+ is the same as Fielder's, substantially worse than Votto's. As a CF of course, that's hugely valuable but how long can he stay out there? When healthy, he's been about a 5 WAR player. Without question, he's a more valuable player than Fielder and roughly equal to Votto.

Still, in WAR terms, Hamilton 2009-11 is only 23rd in MLB (Votto #7, Prince #26). He's barely ahead of Hunter Pence who is 2 years younger. That's largely playing time but here's a list of guys with similar playing time:

Utley 17.1, 1650 PA
Youk 15.1, 1540
Mauer 14.5, 1520
Gardner 12.8, 1440
Hamilton 12.3, 1470
CarGo 11.6, 1500
Rolen 10.3, 1340
Ellsbury 10.3, 1510
Pagan 9.9, 1500
Napoli 9.7, 1370
AJackson 9.6, 1340

Hamilton is much more Matt Holliday (14.4 WAR in 1861 PA, one year older) than he is Pujols. The age-fragility combo suggest Hamilton at $25 per would be a bad deal. Of course the 350 HRs he's gonna hit this season suggest it might be a bargain.

That list, plus Bourn and Victorino being near Hamilton in WAR, makes me think that CF defense might be over-rated by the fancy stats. Or ridiculously variable -- Pagan the last 4 years is +16, +21, -8 and already -7 (!) this year.

2009 through 2011 is about the worst span you could pick. Go back another year and he's 4 years/17.6. 2010 through 2012 actually looks better than 2009 through 2011--and that's counting 2012 as a whole year!

I agree, though, that age is part of it too. But I don't think you can just throw half of my examples as 'just crazy.' Add in some of the recent star player contracts and the $/win figures make this one look good.

9 home runs in one week.

Has a player had a better hitting week? Bonds?

Bonds actually hit 9 in 6 games -- May 17-22, 2001. Mark McGwire hit 9 HR from May 18-25, 1998. Sammy Sosa hit 9 HR from June 15-21, 1998.

On a somewhat related note, Dale Long, Don Mattingly and Ken Griffey, Jr. both homered in eight consecutive games. Mattingly had a total of ten during his streak.

9 home runs in one week.

Has a player had a better hitting week? Bonds

this guy, and he did in the Year of the Pitcher

Go back another year and he's 4 years/17.6.

Which ain't a lot different than 3/12.3. :-) Not to mention that one year increases his PA by nearly 50%. It is true that Hamilton's 2009 was terrible. Still, take his career as a whole and he's about a 5 WAR player in a full season (20 WAR in 2515 PA). But given he's averaged about 500 PA per season, not 625, that makes him a 4 WAR player.

Now if he keeps crushing the ball this year, then you're talking about a guy with 20 WAR over 3 seasons (maybe as few as 1600-1700 PA) and that's mighty studly.

But, no, $25 per isn't "crazy", I'm just not sure it's in line with the market -- the $25 per crew is still only ARod, Votto and Pujols. 6/$120 is probably a lock if he's healthy this year; 6/$150 is probably the top end.

Prince got 9/214. Votto got 10/225. 6/150 includes a biiiigggg discount to make up for his fragility.

It's only a matter of time before teams finally get smart and manage to figure out that these eight to ten year, $200+ million megadeals don't make any sense whatsoever. I say that these ridiculous contract are a bubble, like housing a few years ago, and not a baseline for some kind of permanent "market".

There have been a grand total of five $200+ M contracts ever. When have they ever been a baseline for anything?

It's only a matter of time before teams finally get smart and manage to figure out that these eight to ten year, $200+ million megadeals don't make any sense whatsoever. I say that these ridiculous contract are a bubble, like housing a few years ago, and not a baseline for some kind of permanent "market".

Haven't people been saying big contracts are over for years now? Some teams just got infused with a huge amount of money from TV deals, I don't see these contracts going away any time soon. I predict Josh Hamilton gets way more money than anyone here thinks he deserves and everyone here will post "what a ridiculous overpay" and in a way they'll be right, but in another way, that's what the market dictates for superstar players.

Haven't people been saying big contracts are over for years now?

Haven't people been saying that they wouldn't fall for being trolled by Joey B for years now?

If I'm the Rangers I'd pay the 6/150 if that's all it costs. Even if he busts, it's not like they don't have enough money to sign someone else at that price. They're great at getting production out of cost controlled players.

I predict Josh Hamilton gets way more money than anyone here thinks he deserves and everyone here will post "what a ridiculous overpay" and in a way they'll be right, but in another way, that's what the market dictates for superstar players.

I think people tend to overlook the power of narrative in these negotiations. Superstars get money for what they're worth and then a little extra for being superstars.

If a team can get Hamilton for six years I think they'll be pretty pleased. Right or wrong I can see a 7 or 8 year deal going his way.

I think people tend to overlook the power of narrative in these negotiations.

True. I also think people tend to over-react to guys on amazing hot streaks. Two weeks ago, nobody would have mentioned Hamilton and Pujols in the same breath and wouldn't have been talking about 6/$150 as any sort of "at least." Now he's a superstar again and ESPN is running articles on how pitchers have to take a different approach to an unstoppable force like Hamilton.

He's the same player he was two weeks ago. If the Rangers weren't willing to go 6/$150 (or whatever) then, the new narrative shouldn't change their minds.

I like his chances for player of the month though.

Last October people on this site were complaining that Hamilton was hitting in front of Beltre, Cruz and Napoli.

The Rangers have one of the streakiest lineups in baseball. Napoli, Cruz, and Hamilton can all alternate from terrible flailing swings for a couple of weeks to the best hitter in baseball for a month. And it's not just that they can, but it's that they do. Every year.