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Friday, October 25, 2013

Cracks showing as Boston Red Sox head to St. Louis with World Series tied at 1-1 - ESPN Boston

The manic depressive nature of sports reporting. Yesterday, the Sox were tough to beat. Today they are very vulnerable.

The Cardinals left Fenway Park feeling as if they were leading the Series at a game apiece. The Red Sox, perhaps for the first time this October, are the ones showing small cracks ripe for exploitation, most notably by 1) the uncertainty surrounding Clay Buchholz and 2) the first blown late-inning lead of the postseason by the bullpen (the walk-off home run by Tampa Bay’s Jose Lobaton off closer Koji Uehara in Game 3 of the division series came with the score tied), raising the possibility the other guys have a better pen than they do.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 25, 2013 at 07:44 AM | 89 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals, red sox, world series

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   1. depletion Posted: October 25, 2013 at 08:30 AM (#4583182)
Pull up your damn pants.
   2. Dale Sams Posted: October 25, 2013 at 08:36 AM (#4583186)
Hunh. Sox win and there's an article about Lester's glove and the one about the umps.

CARDS win and there's an article about the win, Drew sucks, Boston sucks, Beltran is great and the Cards relievers are great.
   3. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 08:36 AM (#4583187)
The Red Sox didn't take their chances, and the Cardinals benefited from a complete ########### of a 7th inning and Martinez being pretty friggin good. The series is knotted at 1 apiece, and it's very likely coming back to Fenway one way or the other, I don't see either team winning 3 straight.
   4. JE (Jason) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 08:43 AM (#4583193)
It's one bloody game. Jeez Louise, playoff postgame reports suck.
   5. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:02 AM (#4583200)
It's one bloody game. Jeez Louise, playoff postgame reports suck.


Yup. Disappointing loss but I wasn't expecting a sweep (would've been nice) and I like that Lackey pitched well. Workman looked pretty good and ironically I thought our defense was generally very good (Drew especially) but of course that let us down pretty spectacularly in one key moment. Ortiz is swinging a good bad, Pedroia looked better at the plate, losing a WS game sucks but I didn't see anything especially troubling.

The only thing that I thought was really bad is Bogaerts looked uncomfortable at the plate for the first time. He was hardly the only one of course and says more about Wacha than anything else. Wacha was outstanding, damn that kid is something else.
   6. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:06 AM (#4583202)
A couple of questions: Why are the Cards starting Lance Lynn ahead of Shelby Miller (innings limit, I suspect)? And is Papi going to be playing 1B in the NL park?
   7. Dale Sams Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:10 AM (#4583204)
Magic beard gnome dust can only get you so far.
   8. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:11 AM (#4583206)
dingers

don't know for sure but before the end of the season there was chatter that miller had a tired arm. he has been mia for a while

and Ortiz will be playing first base. with all the cards righties and him clearly locked in it would be nuts for Farrell to sit him
   9. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:19 AM (#4583210)
Thanks Harv. I know Miller is on the roster, but it looks like he's only pitched one inning this postseason.
   10. Jay Z Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:29 AM (#4583217)
Hunh. Sox win and there's an article about Lester's glove and the one about the umps.

CARDS win and there's an article about the win, Drew sucks, Boston sucks, Beltran is great and the Cards relievers are great.


Everyone here would laugh if this quality of "reporting" was done by actual reporters.
   11. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:34 AM (#4583218)
dingers

well, cannot be 100 certain

but one thing is that matheny sure SEEMS like he has a good feel for his pitching staff. and if he's not pitching the guy it is likely for a good reason
   12. How Flounder got here, he hasn't a clue. Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:34 AM (#4583219)
As a Cardinal fan, I would like to see Miller pitch. However, I would much rather have him replace Kelly than Lynn in the rotation. Kelly just feels like a time bomb.

Miller's K/9 and BB/9 both significantly worsened in Septmber.
   13. Bob Tufts Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:35 AM (#4583221)
It's one bloody game.


Yes, too bad Curt Schilling can't play anymore. From bloody socks to a company bleeding red ink.....
   14. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:51 AM (#4583230)
flounder

lynn pitches well at home and has pitched better the last few weeks. in july and august he was getting smacked around pretty well.

I don't think lynn's stuff matches up well with the sox. he's not a super control guy and his fastball is good but not great.

now would be the time to start nava given lynn's clear platoon splits. if Farrell starts gomes he is giving away a serious advantage.
   15. Nasty Nate Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:53 AM (#4583234)
Ugh, that sac fly featured 4 non-good plays by the Sox. The throw home wasn't good enough to get the runner (on the slim chance that it was possible); Salty made a bad play to try to catch it-allowing the runners to advance, for some reason it seemed he was trying to keep his foot on the plate like a first-baseman; Breslow made a bad decision to throw the ball; then he made a terrible throw.
---
I was surprised Nava didn't pinch-hit a batter earlier in the 9th, for Saltalamacchia.
   16. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:57 AM (#4583238)
breslow is an interesting guy in that he has knocked around baseball for years and kept a big league job despite not striking people out or being able to avoid walks in a big way.

it ain't my team but whatever his numbers he would be way down the list of pitchers I would have facing a contact oriented team like the cards.
   17. Jeltzandini Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:58 AM (#4583239)
The last game finally exposed the fatal flaws of the losing team. They are doomed.
   18. BDC Posted: October 25, 2013 at 10:01 AM (#4583242)
It's one bloody game. Jeez Louise

I dunno. Part of what has always made the World Series great is that little stuff, stuff in May that you'd chalk up to "that's the way baseball go," takes on epic significance. I don't like things like the Wild Card Tiebreaker being inflated into one for the ages, but World Series hyperbole, I can live with :)
   19. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 10:02 AM (#4583245)
The media completely overreacts to everything. Playoff baseball is no different.
   20. Morty Causa Posted: October 25, 2013 at 10:07 AM (#4583251)
Just when you think it couldn't get stupider. Red Sox go from being invincible to falling apart in less than 24 hours in the eyes of the media and those who take it seriously. Never seen people get through a day so fast.
   21. Nasty Nate Posted: October 25, 2013 at 10:07 AM (#4583252)
it ain't my team but whatever his numbers he would be way down the list of pitchers I would have facing a contact oriented team like the cards.


He's third down the list for them. He has been very effective all year and in the playoffs, and although the Cards might not be a good matchup for him, I don't think there's anyone below him in the pecking order that I would trust more.
   22. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 25, 2013 at 10:19 AM (#4583267)
As a Cardinal fan, I would like to see Miller pitch. However, I would much rather have him replace Kelly than Lynn in the rotation. Kelly just feels like a time bomb.

Miller's K/9 and BB/9 both significantly worsened in Septmber.

Yes, they don't have very good options for the #3 and #4 slots, but Peavy, Buchholz and Doubront don't seem much better. Actually of these 5, I'd expect the best from Doubront given the Cards' trouble with lefties. None of these guys is at his best right now.
   23. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 25, 2013 at 10:30 AM (#4583276)
Agreed with Nate, Breslow has been excellent all year. Sometimes you gotta throw your strength against their strength and hope yours wins.
   24. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 10:45 AM (#4583287)
As I said right after Game 1 when people were predicting the series was over, people will overreact to what they saw last.

   25. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 10:45 AM (#4583289)
What was McCarver talking about after the Breslow throwing error, that pitchers lose many games a year on errors throwing to the bases? From what I've seen it's relatively rare.

I don't recall it often happening that a pitcher backing up home will reel off and fire to a base.
   26. tfbg9 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 11:02 AM (#4583309)
Agreed with Nate, Breslow has been excellent all year. Sometimes you gotta throw your strength against their strength and hope yours wins.


True. But when your strength looks lost out there, and had just BB'd a .230 hitter, then makes a crazy semi-panic toss into the stands, maybe its time to move onto strength #2: Tazawa. Turning Beltran around was not worth the cost of leaving an ineffective Breslow in the game. He threw all fastballs to Beltran, yet still fell behind 3-1, and then gave up the dagger hit. He sucked, and could not throw strikes. In DMB you do what Farrell did. Breslow was not himself last night. He had no location at all, and with his stuff, he needs to hit the glove. I supported the move to bring Breslow in, but he needed to be gotten outta there for Carlos' AB.

Tazawa pitched to only one guy for the 2nd night in a row. After the 2 errors, I wanted Farrell to go to him. He was warmed-up.
   27. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 11:22 AM (#4583338)
True. But when your strength looks lost out there, and had just BB'd a .230 hitter, then makes a crazy semi-panic toss into the stands, maybe its time to move onto strength #2: Tazawa. Turning Beltran around was not worth the cost of leaving an ineffective Breslow in the game. He threw all fastballs to Beltran, yet still fell behind 3-1, and then gave up the dagger hit. He sucked, and could not throw strikes. In DMB you do what Farrell did. Breslow was not himself last night. He had no location at all, and with his stuff, he needs to hit the glove. I supported the move to bring Breslow in, but he needed to be gotten outta there for Carlos' AB.


Breslow had thrown, what, 9 pitches by the time Beltran came up to bat? Who knows what in the hell a pitcher has in 9 pitches?
   28. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 11:33 AM (#4583349)
The Red Sox didn't take their chances, and the Cardinals benefited from a complete ########### of a 7th inning and Martinez being pretty friggin good. The series is knotted at 1 apiece, and it's very likely coming back to Fenway one way or the other, I don't see either team winning 3 straight.


agreed.. No matter what my 'heart' thinks, this looks to be a long series than a quick one. Cardinals are notoriously famous for going the maximum.

Anyone that takes this game as more than just a loss is trying to write the story into it. Cardinal's had a pitiful couple of innings the first game, won the second game thanks to a pitiful inning by the Red Sox. Neither team is going to go hari-kari over those mistakes, both are ready to play, I don't see "cracks" in the walls or whatever the f, they are talking about. I saw two teams playing a baseball game, which includes good events and bad events from both sides. Deal with it.
   29. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 11:37 AM (#4583353)
A couple of questions: Why are the Cards starting Lance Lynn ahead of Shelby Miller (innings limit, I suspect)? And is Papi going to be playing 1B in the NL park?


For some reason the Cardinal's think Lynn has been better in the most recent past. It's not that Lynn has looked good, but that Miller has looked poor relative to how he was pitching. There is a very real concern that he has a "dead" arm right now. Personally I would go with the better talent who has been better in the majors, but for some reason Lynn is getting the call.
   30. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 25, 2013 at 11:37 AM (#4583355)
Cardinals are notoriously famous for going the maximum.

They are? I've never heard this. Their two World Series before 2011 were 4 and 5 games.
   31. Nasty Nate Posted: October 25, 2013 at 11:44 AM (#4583360)
(a) I'm pretty sure they had more than 2 world series before 2011...
(b) WS are not the only kind of postseason series.
   32. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 11:45 AM (#4583361)
They are? I've never heard this. Their two World Series before 2011 were 4 and 5 games.


87, 85, 82, 68, 67, 64, and 46, all went 7 games, add in that even their playoffs generally go the maximum or one game within the maximum(when they are truly dominant) and I don't think what I said was an overstatement in the slightest.

So of their last 10 world series appearances, 8 went the maximum.


and as Nate pointed out, world series isn't the only post season series.
   33. base ball chick Posted: October 25, 2013 at 11:53 AM (#4583373)
there is obviously something very wrong with shelby miller, seeing as how he hasn't pitched in like, forever

teams don't sit a really good pitcher during the freaking WS because the manager/star doesn't LIKE him personally. or because he dissed someone. or because he gave up the losing him in 1 game back in august. or anything silly like that
   34. Dale Sams Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:06 PM (#4583394)
teams don't sit a really good pitcher during the freaking WS because the manager/star doesn't LIKE him personally. or because he dissed someone. or because he gave up the losing him in 1 game back in august. or anything silly like that


This is the same 2013 playoffs wherein the guy with the fifth best OBP against right-handers in the league sat for the worst (giving Drew credit for defense) guy in the playoffs on the team.
   35. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:10 PM (#4583401)
87, 85, 82, 68, 67, 64, and 46, all went 7 games, add in that even their playoffs generally go the maximum or one game within the maximum(when they are truly dominant) and I don't think what I said was an overstatement in the slightest.

So of their last 10 world series appearances, 8 went the maximum.


and as Nate pointed out, world series isn't the only post season series.


What predictive value does any of this have?
   36. tfbg9 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:15 PM (#4583406)
Breslow had thrown, what, 9 pitches by the time Beltran came up to bat? Who knows what in the hell a pitcher has in 9 pitches?


It was 8 pitches. And he had sh1t. On top of that, he had just made a bonehead throw.

Anybody with eyes could see Morales had sh1t the other night, and that was after 4 pitches. This is not DMB.
   37. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:17 PM (#4583411)
What predictive value does any of this have?


None, just pointing out that historically the Cardinals like to go deep into the series/post season.

Can you be any more of an ass? Or is it just your normal personality shining through and you don't realize what a ####### dick you are?
   38. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:19 PM (#4583413)
#36, I'm not convinced that a pitcher's last X number of pitches in a game tell us anything about his next Y number of pitches, at least if we're talking about before he gets tired. That is, if a starter gets knocked around in the 2nd inning, does it tell us anything useful about how the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings will go? That's what I wonder.

So that's where my starting point is in this discussion, which means that we will probably get nowhere by discussing the Breslow issue.
   39. villageidiom Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:20 PM (#4583416)
What was McCarver talking about after the Breslow throwing error, that pitchers lose many games a year on errors throwing to the bases? From what I've seen it's relatively rare.
I don't know how often it actually results in a lost game, but at least 3 or 4 times a year I see a pitcher throw a DP ball into CF. Maybe once a month I see someone throw wild on a pickoff attempt. Errant throws on bunt attempts are not unusual, either.

Last night's throwing error was somewhat unique.
   40. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:21 PM (#4583418)
None, just pointing out that historically the Cardinals like to go deep into the series/post season.

Can you be any more of an ass? Or is it just your normal personality shining through and you don't realize what a ####### dick you are?


Not sure why you think I'm being a dick. Your original comment seemed to predict a long series, in part because the Cardinals have historically played long series. Quoting:

agreed.. No matter what my 'heart' thinks, this looks to be a long series than a quick one. Cardinals are notoriously famous for going the maximum.

Then you started citing series from decades ago.

Whatever. Let's just drop it.
   41. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:23 PM (#4583420)
I don't know how often it actually results in a lost game, but at least 3 or 4 times a year I see a pitcher throw a DP ball into CF. Maybe once a month I see someone throw wild on a pickoff attempt. Errant throws on bunt attempts are not unusual, either.


Sure, but I was referring specifically to pitchers backing up bases or the plate and then uncorking wild throws after they get their hands on the ball, which to me seems relatively rare.

Though perhaps McCarver's comment was broader than that.
   42. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:36 PM (#4583439)
Hershiser on the radio wanted Tazawa brought in right after the double steal. Like, right after, during the at bat by Carpenter. Because at that point you desperately need a strike out. That would have been interesting. Couldn't have been any worse.
   43. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:38 PM (#4583441)
a reliever these days tends to max out at approximately 20 pitches per inning. so even 9 pitches is almost half of the pitcher's defined allocation.

and this is where a manager and pitching coach make the big bucks. being able to discern on limited evidence that 'holy sh8t, our guy has got nothing. gotta yank him'

they don't of course. it's typically results oriented.

but a guy can dream.

   44. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:39 PM (#4583443)
Robert

in today's game the good relievers are typically striking out 25 percent of the batters they face because strikeouts are so commonplace.

so if you need an OUT you should be going for the STRIKEout, not a contact based out. because it's the least impact and VERY available
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 12:42 PM (#4583447)
Whatever. Let's just drop it.


Okay.

Just for the record, if I'm ever going to bother to make a prediction, it's always going to be the same. Cardinals win every remaining game. I'm not arrogant enough to think I have an observational power to believe I can make a prediction. Post season baseball is impossible to predict, anyone tells you different is an idiot. You can point to factors and reasons that might make one team go from a 51% favorite for a particular game to a 55% favorite, but that is really all you are doing, moving the needle.

I made my comment as a lament to the fact that Cardinal's historically don't like to participate in a short series, not a prediction. And that they were "known--notorious" for going long in a series.
   46. tfbg9 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:06 PM (#4583469)
FWIW, Boston is at -105 for Game 3. A little surprising to me.
   47. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:08 PM (#4583470)
Just anecdotally it seems to me that pitchers are MUCH worse than other position players at throwing to bases and for some reason lefties are disproportionately bad (Kenny Rogers an exception). I don't know if the evidence shows that but it feels that way.
   48. GuyM Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:28 PM (#4583488)
Letting Breslow face Beltran was completely reasonable.

What wasn't reasonable was allowing Martinez to face Ortiz. Or allowing Descalso to face a LHP in the 7th inning down a run and 0-1 in the series.

But because the latter decisions worked out, they aren't getting the criticism.
   49. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:36 PM (#4583499)
What wasn't reasonable was allowing Martinez to face Ortiz. Or allowing Descalso to face a LHP in the 7th inning down a run and 0-1 in the series.


Why not? Who did you have to replace Descalso with? and Why go to anyone other than Martinez who has been pretty much lights out since his most recent recall.

They aren't getting questioned because they weren't really decisions, they were the only options. Siegrist has already been beaten by Ortiz in this series, and nobody trusts Choate. Martinez is probably one of the five best pitchers on the team. Sticking with him is not a hard choice.
   50. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:39 PM (#4583502)
cfb - Is Matheny giving up on Siegrist too easily? I actually had written down in Siegrist in my scorebook after Martinez retired Pedroia and was surprised when I had to cross it out. Not saying it was the wrong move, just a surprising one.
   51. GuyM Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:48 PM (#4583511)
Bringing in Choate was clearly the right move.

You have Robinson PH for Descalso, and then Kozma replaces him in the field. (It would also make much more sense to have another RH bat on the bench -- Peterson? -- than carrying Mujica and never using him.)
   52. tfbg9 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:51 PM (#4583513)
Letting Breslow face Beltran was completely reasonable.


In DMB.
   53. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:51 PM (#4583514)
Siegrist isn't really a situational reliever. Yes he's left handed, but I think his strengths don't play well against an Ortiz type of hitter. Choate is probably the better option against him to be honest, but there is something about him that doesn't inspire confidence(even though he has been good this year)

Matheny loves to pull pitchers mid-inning, so I was surprised that Martinez stayed out there also, but I don't think it was a wrong decision, just not a decision Matheny usually makes. I think Matheny is embracing the Torre concept of using your best arms for the post season only concept. As it stands he trust Martinez, Rosenthal, and Maness (for some reason) and I fully expect those will be the guys you see for the rest of the series if the score is close. You might see Siegrist, but I don't think the first person he'll see is going to be Ortiz.

   54. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4583517)
You have Robinson PH for Descalso, and then Kozma replaces him in the field. (It would also make much more sense to have another RH bat on the bench -- Peterson? -- than carrying Mujica and never using him.)


You already replaced Freese with Kozma earlier in the inning. You would have been forced to put Wong in at second, Kozma at short and move Carpenter to third. It's doable, but probably not the best move, after using up Robinson and basically leaving only Cruz on the bench.

It's not like Robinson is noticeably better than Descalso and neither has a noticeable platoon split. That move would have been a Montgomery Burns level of ridiculousness.
   55. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4583522)
You have Robinson PH for Descalso, and then Kozma replaces him in the field. (It would also make much more sense to have another RH bat on the bench -- Peterson? -- than carrying Mujica and never using him.)


Peterson looked as much overmatched as a hitter as Wong did this year. Neither of those guys should see a plate appearance in the world series(yes I know Peterson isn't on the roster, there is a reason why we went with Chambers in the previous series ahead of him, he at least can field a bit and run) The bench is weak, no reason to go to it unless you absolutely have to.
   56. GuyM Posted: October 25, 2013 at 02:03 PM (#4583524)
You replace Freese with Wong, if you feel the speed upgrade is important. You do burn one more player, but you're down a run in the 7th inning and will face Tazawa and Euhara in the 8th and 9th -- you simply have to take your best shot. And we have to assume Robinson is a noticeably better hitter than Descalso against a LHP (we don't have nearly enough data about these two to conclude they don't have normal platoon splits).

(I would also say that if the Cardinals cannot find a 4th OF who's a better hitter with the platoon advantage than Daniel Descalso with a platoon disadvantage, someone has done an inexcusably bad job of roster construction.)


   57. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4583533)
(I would also say that if the Cardinals cannot find a 4th OF who's a better hitter with the platoon advantage than Daniel Descalso with a platoon disadvantage, someone has done an inexcusably bad job of roster construction.)


Don't argue with that, the plan all along was for Oscar Taveras to take over as the 4th outfield in August and his injury prevented that from happening. The emergence of Adams helped mitigate that problem as a bench player, and Beltrans/Holliday's healthy seasons prevented it from being a necessity.

As to the assumption about Robinson being better. Not sure about that, Robinson hasn't actually show any ability to be a better hitter than Descalso, regardless of platoon splits. Robinson has better discipline, but as to actual ability to hit a baseball, nothing in his history suggests replacing Descalso for him. It's a swap a manager makes to say "See I'm still managing." but beyond that it's just a futile effort. They are the same hitter more or less, and Descalso has never had a a platoon split. You replace him for defensive purposes, you replace him because you have a Matt Adams on the bench. You do not replace him for Shane Robinson.
   58. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: October 25, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4583551)
Just anecdotally it seems to me that pitchers are MUCH worse than other position players at throwing to bases and for some reason lefties are disproportionately bad (Kenny Rogers an exception).

He certainly got a lot better since this game, which has stuck with me a lot longer than it probably should have... most likely due to the the manner and inning in which it ended.
   59. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 25, 2013 at 02:37 PM (#4583560)
He certainly got a lot better since this game, which has stuck with me a lot longer than it probably should have... most likely due to the the manner and inning in which it ended.


Baseball is awesome. A benign, generally meaningless middle of the season game remembered for 20+ years by a fan that featured;

2 Cy Young winners (Davis and Saberhagen)
2 Hall of Famers (Ryan and Brett)
2 members of the 3000 hit club (Brett and Palmeiro)
3 MVPs (Gibson, Brett and Gonzalez)
the winning pitchers were guys who entered the game in the 18th inning and wound up winning a combined 350 games

and the guy whose name is most used in baseball circles these days was a 12th inning defensive replacement even if most fans don't know he was a person before he was a computer program (Bill Pecota)

It's probably not that unusual a game but looking quickly at the box score I was struck by the star power. Plus a bunch of guys (Boddicker, Tartabull, Downing, Sierra) who were more than "just another guy". Fun walk down memory lane for me.
   60. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 02:43 PM (#4583567)
it was well known before the playoffs that the cards weaknesses were lefty pitching and the bench. to date no opponent has done a very good job of exploiting either.

i can guess why dubront isn't pitching but against THIS cards team it would be a worth the risk to me. if he fails you still have the current pegged starter to come in as fallback.

but i could easily see a lefty with dubront's stuff, assuming he can throw just enough strikes, shutting down the cards offense.
   61. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: October 25, 2013 at 02:52 PM (#4583572)
Harveys, Lester did shut them down in Game 1. And it's likely that if Buchholz can't go in Game 4 for whatever reason then Dubront will get the start.
   62. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 03:02 PM (#4583585)
smiling

even if bucholz were tip top i would pitch dubront.
   63. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 25, 2013 at 03:12 PM (#4583600)

even if bucholz were tip top i would pitch dubront.


That's crazy talk Harv. Buchholz is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he's healthy, Doubront is a solid #3-4 starter.
   64. GuyM Posted: October 25, 2013 at 03:26 PM (#4583617)
it was well known before the playoffs that the cards weaknesses were lefty pitching and the bench.

I wonder how real that weakness is against LHP. This is largely a function of StL RHH having a weird reverse platoon, hitting much worse against LHP (.667) than RHP (.723) -- they actually did worse against lefties than the team's LHH. I wouldn't assume that's terribly predictive of future performance, unless a number of their RHH have reverse splits over their careers. Is that the case?
   65. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 03:33 PM (#4583624)
I wonder how real that weakness is against LHP. This is largely a function of StL RHH having a weird reverse platoon, hitting much worse against LHP (.667) than RHP (.723) -- they actually did worse against lefties than the team's LHH. I wouldn't assume that's terribly predictive of future performance, unless a number of their RHH have reverse splits over their careers. Is that the case?


No, just Descalso for the most part, and Beltran as a switch hitter is much stronger from his left than his right. There is no logical reason for the Cardinals to struggle against left handed pitching, but the reality is that they do.
   66. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 25, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4583631)
Buchholz is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he's healthy, Doubront is a solid #3-4 starter.

talking two different things

a short series is about MATCHUPS

and i think dubront is a matchup problem for this cards team

if he's not pitching some amount of innings Farrell is being...................unwise

   67. GuyM Posted: October 25, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4583641)
There is no logical reason for the Cardinals to struggle against left handed pitching, but the reality is that they do.

No, the reality is that they did (in 2013 regular season). That may have little bearing on how they will fare against LHPs going forward.
   68. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 25, 2013 at 03:57 PM (#4583643)
cfb - Is Matheny giving up on Siegrist too easily? I actually had written down in Siegrist in my scorebook after Martinez retired Pedroia and was surprised when I had to cross it out. Not saying it was the wrong move, just a surprising one.

I don't think he's "giving up" on Siegrist, bur rather that Siegrist isn't a LOOGY. He's a fastball pitcher who happens to be a lefty, sort of like Sean Doolittle or Randy Myers or Billy Wagner. I find it hard to believe he won't pitch important innings later in the series if there are enough that Martinez can't pitch them all.
   69. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 04:13 PM (#4583659)
Just anecdotally it seems to me that pitchers are MUCH worse than other position players at throwing to bases and for some reason lefties are disproportionately bad (Kenny Rogers an exception). I don't know if the evidence shows that but it feels that way.


That would stand to reason. A pitcher may have a better arm than an infielder, but infielders spend their lives throwing to bases -- and practicing it between innings.
   70. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 04:15 PM (#4583665)
No, the reality is that they did (in 2013 regular season). That may have little bearing on how they will fare against LHPs going forward.


Agreed, but until they show any improvement against lefties (non-Kershaw division) you have to assume it's a weakness of the team. It's been regularly written about all year long, and argued that there is no real reason for it, yet they then face another lefty and get shut down, time after time this season.
   71. Dale Sams Posted: October 25, 2013 at 04:17 PM (#4583667)
My lineup:

Nava
Ellsbury
Pedey
Papi

(wow the dropoff after that…)
Bogaerts
Victorino
WMB
Ross
Peavy
   72. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 04:20 PM (#4583674)
They aren't getting questioned because they weren't really decisions, they were the only options. Siegrist has already been beaten by Ortiz in this series, and nobody trusts Choate. Martinez is probably one of the five best pitchers on the team. Sticking with him is not a hard choice.


You need to turn around Ortiz in a high leverage spot late in the game. You move him from an A+ hitter to a C+ or B- hitter that way. This is elementary.
   73. JJ1986 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 04:33 PM (#4583693)
You need to turn around Ortiz in a high leverage spot late in the game. You move him from an A+ hitter to a C+ or B- hitter that way. This is elementary.


But the Cardinals would be switching from an A- pitcher to a C pitcher.
   74. cardsfanboy Posted: October 25, 2013 at 04:55 PM (#4583707)
But the Cardinals would be switching from an A- pitcher to a C pitcher.


Exactly. You don't make the switch unless you feel comfortable with the quality of the pitcher going in.
   75. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 05:10 PM (#4583729)
But the Cardinals would be switching from an A- pitcher to a C pitcher.


The downswing in expected performance from Ortiz going from a RHP to a LHP swamps the fact that the RHP may be better overall than the LHP.
   76. tfbg9 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 05:49 PM (#4583756)
You need to turn around Ortiz in a high leverage spot late in the game. You move him from an A+ hitter to a C+ or B- hitter that way. This is elementary.



David Ortiz ~ 500 AB, 3 year split (2011, 2012, 2013) vs. LHP: .300/.369./.518. That ain't no C+ hitter. He's worked hard, by all accounts, to develop techniques to cope with the all the loogy guys and shifts they use against him.

Again, Ray, this is not DMB. This is real ball. Not all lefties are created the same. Is he a groundballer? Power pitcher? Finesse? I'd rather see Ortiz face Choat than that Martinez kid, or whatever he's calling himself these days.

   77. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 05:59 PM (#4583761)
David Ortiz ~ 500 AB, 3 year split (2011, 2012, 2013) vs. LHP: .300/.369./.518. That ain't no C+ hitter. He's worked hard, by all accounts, to develop techniques to cope with the all the loogy guys and shifts they use against him.


He loses some 200-250 points of OPS just by turning him around.

His last 3 years vs RHP are:

2013: 1.092
2012: 1.012
2011: .934

He has learned to cope with the shifts? He hits into the shift routinely.
   78. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2013 at 06:03 PM (#4583766)
Again, Ray, this is not DMB. This is real ball. Not all lefties are created the same. Is he a groundballer? Power pitcher? Finesse?


Managers would be FAR better off managing as if this were DMB. So point heard, and rejected out of hand.

(And as I understand it DMB accounts for pitcher profile, e.g., groundball, flyball, etc. anyway.)
   79. tfbg9 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 06:47 PM (#4583792)
Managers would be FAR better off managing as if this were DMB. So point heard, and rejected out of hand.


This is actually funny.

He loses some 200-250 points of OPS just by turning him around.


No. He doesn't. First of all, its .132 OPS points: 1.019 vs .887, and it still depends on the pitcher. Ortiz does not automatically hit worse against every single LHP versus how he'd hit against any RHP. I'd rather take my chances against Choate or Coke some shakey loogy, than a RHP tossing 97 with movement.

He has learned to cope with the shifts? He hits into the shift routinely.


Not as much as he did in 2008, 2009, 2010. His BA tells the tale.

   80. tfbg9 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 07:39 PM (#4583802)
Also, he is not a switch hitter. You don't "turn him around". Maybe in DMB you can.
   81. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 25, 2013 at 07:49 PM (#4583804)
Also, he is not a switch hitter. You don't "turn him around". Maybe in DMB you can.

Maybe he could bat with his back to the pitcher
   82. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: October 25, 2013 at 08:29 PM (#4583816)
But the Cardinals would be switching from an A- pitcher to a C pitcher.


If you're talking about Siegrist, he isn't exactly pitching like a C pitcher, either. Lefties hit .118/.241/.147 (.388 OPS) against him in 2013, and all batters hit .128/.237/.195 (.432 OPS). He struck out 1/3 of the people he faced (50 of 152).

Choate is probably a C pitcher, though.
   83. tfbg9 Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:27 PM (#4583836)
There are other splits that matter besides L/R.
I'd guess, or at least wouldn't be surprised if Papi hits LH finesse guys better than RH power guys, for instance.
   84. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 25, 2013 at 09:34 PM (#4583838)
According to BB-Ref 2013 Ortiz hit finesse better than power but power better than average power/finesse, so it's hard to tell. I guess you need a lefty seamer.
   85. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 26, 2013 at 04:51 PM (#4584138)
In today's newsletter Joe Sheehan makes the argument for bringing in a LHP to face Ortiz there instead of leaving the RHP Martinez in:

The decision Matheny faced two innings later, though…that one I have a problem with. Carlos Martinez was one the mound holding a 4-2 lead with a runner on first and two men out. Ortiz was coming to the plate. The night before, Matheny had used Kevin Siegrist in a low-leverage spot and watched Ortiz hit a two-run homer that was little more than window dressing. I really want to believe that move didn't affect Matheny's process Thursday, didn't make him less likely to bring in a left-hander to face Ortiz with the game in the balance. Siegrist is a terrific young pitcher, but he has little in common with Randy Choate but handedness. That Ortiz turned around a first-pitch overhand fastball in a low-leverage spot says nothing about how he might handle Choate's get-the-lefty junk from a tough angle.

Martinez has been great this postseason, but he's still a power right-hander who, during the regular season, did not handle lefties: .326/.373/.391 with six strikeouts and three unintentional walks allowed in 51 PA. Choate owes his career to being able to beat the likes of David Ortiz: .176/.268/.224 with no home runs allowed in 2013, .198/.277/.278 with seven homers allowed to lefties in his career. This is what he does. David Ortiz hits lefties well for an everyday player -- .267/.339/.477 career, .260/.315/.418 in 2013, but he doesn't hit for the same amount of power -- he slugged .652 with a homer every 15.6 PA against righties, but .418 with a homer every 30.4 PA against lefties.

The home-run rate with one on and two outs in a two-run game, is the real key; I'd have had no problem with Martinez facing, say, Jacoby Ellsbury in that spot, maybe even Jarrod Saltalamacchia. But the difference in the chance for a game-tying home run between Martinez vs. Ortiz and Choate vs. Ortiz is high enough -- it's almost non-existent in the second matchup -- that not bringing in Choate is a mistake. It "worked" in that Ortiz didn't hit a game-tying home run, and Martinez was able to get Napoli, but it was a needless risk that Matheny would be wise to not replicate. I mean, the Red Sox are here in part because Jim Leyland let David Ortiz bat against a righty as the tying run with two outs. It's not a hard lesson to learn.


   86. JJ1986 Posted: October 26, 2013 at 04:56 PM (#4584142)
According to Sheehan, 2013 splits really matter, except the one where Martinez also didn't allow any home runs to lefties in 2013.
   87. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 26, 2013 at 05:26 PM (#4584164)
Managers would be FAR better off managing as if this were DMB. So point heard, and rejected out of hand.


Can we get a script that replaces all of RDP's posts with this one simple statement?
   88. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: October 26, 2013 at 05:33 PM (#4584169)
That slapdown of Ray was completely undeserved.
   89. PerroX Posted: October 26, 2013 at 06:58 PM (#4584219)
Joe Sheehan should have gotten the Nationals gig.

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