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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, September 06, 2010
Werth®: Find a Wealth Advisor or Attorney.
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, via Twitter, reported that Jayson Werth broke up with agent Jeff Borris of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, thus putting the right fielder in the market for new representation. On its face, it seems like boring news as players switch agents and it never really makes a difference. However, Werth is expected to be one of the premier players on the market after the 2010 season ends along with Carl Crawford currently with the Tampa Bay Rays.
...The only logical conclusion here is that Werth’s time in Philadelphia is running out. The front office knows this. Werth is likely very aware of this and it is very likely the reason why he decided to seek new representation in early September. Would a player intent on staying put do that? Consider that he was the subject of a baseless salacious rumor involving extra-marital affairs and baseless character assassination by some in the Philadelphia sports media. He also bore the brunt of a newfound reputation as an unclutch player and an irritable shut-in.
No, we don’t know for sure that Werth’s days as a Phillie are ending soon. We are not privy to the discussions between Werth and the Phillies’ front office. Very little has been reported about this matter outside of Werth’s new search for representation. However, looking at all of the little contextual clues, we can conclude rather confidently that he’s not coming back after the season regardless of how much success the team enjoys in October.
Repoz
Posted: September 06, 2010 at 11:47 AM | 27 comment(s)
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1. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: September 06, 2010 at 03:12 PM (#3634311)Heck, Baer wrote this on April 26th as part of his reaction to Ryan Howard's extension:
"Thinking more short-term, Howard’s $20 million salary from 2011-13 may prevent the Phillies from having the financial flexibility to sign right fielder Jayson Werth to an extension, which means that he will most likely become a free agent after this season".
Why does changing an agent point to signing elsewhere?
I was going to ask the same thing, Nate. Does A-Rod splitting with Boras mean that he's after a new contract? If so, that's the worst sell high/buy low strategy I've seen since, well, the Pirates about five years ago.
Chone, John Lackey and Mike Gonzalez are giving him a run for his money. I think I'd rather have Jason Bay than Chone Figgins.
Other potential candidates for being overpaid:
Aubrey Huff (34)--career year or close to it at 33.
Lance Berkman (35)--not sure how much money he'll get, probably a better candidate to get underpaid rather than over.
Jose Reyes (28)--???
Adrian Beltre (32)
Scott Podsednik
I'd say Huff is my top target for someone getting overpaid. And it'll probably be the Giants :(
Because nothing followed through. Even the gossipy websites (TheDirty.com, I believe) wouldn't run with it for more than five minutes.
Most of the time it doesn't mean anything. In this instance, I think it's a pretty big indicator.
Or maybe those sites weren't willing to spend more than five minutes on the indiscretions of Jayson Werth.
http://www.crossingbroad.com/2010/07/jayson-werth-is-not-sleeping-with-chase-utleys-wife.html
I think Carl Crawford will end up "winning" this easily.
Changing agents doesn't necessarily mean a player is looking at leaving, but it is a good indicator that his priorities are changing. In Werth's case, this is the one big free agent payday of his career, and it makes sense to shop around for the best agent for that job now. (Which doesn't necessarily mean he's leaving, but that he'll at least be looking.)
In ARod's case, his priorities likely changed in the other direction. He doesn't need Boras to negotiation a contract, as he's got plenty of years left; he needs financial/tax planning more.
Calcaterra:
To me, the telltale advanced sign of a bad signing is when you give a player money that would have been absolutely inconceivable only a short time ago. That is, paying a premium for an unexpected performance bump, which is more than likely unsustainable. The mistake is compounded when said player is over-30. Gary Matthews Jr. and Aaron Rowand come to mind as recent examples.
On this theory, I think Adrian Beltre is going to get ridiculously overpaid- and likely by the Red Sox, I'm afraid. I've seen several people predict that Beltre could get more money than his previous big deal (5/$64). Even accounting for inflation, there is no way his age 32-36 seasons should be valued anywhere near his age 26-30 seasons. Yes, he's been fantastic this year, but for a player who doesn't walk, he could become a really terrible offensive player if he loses the slightest bit of bat speed. He also plays a demanding defensive position, where it will be increasingly difficult to be an asset as he ages.
This is all irrelevant if people are way off base in predicting Beltre's market value (and he signs for something like 3/$30), but Jayson Werth does enough things well (power, plate discipline, defense, speed, high-percentage base stealer) that I'm not completely frightened of what he will look like in 2014-15.
That's silly. Crawford might get "overpaid" and maybe the tail end of his contract won't look particularly good if someone gives him a lot of years but he's a legitimately excellent player that should provide very good production for the next several years.
Call it a hunch. It just seems to me that players like Crawford whose excellence is built on defense and baserunning tend to fall apart rapidly. (Remember Rob Neyer saying that Chone Figgins was a better player than Matt Holliday, or Fangraphs saying that Nyjer Morgan was better than Adam Dunn?) Crawford is a better player than either of those two, but he's not a superstar, and that's what he's going to get paid like, and I could see him taking a nose dive very soon. But, again, it's just a hunch.
As I've said elsewhere: The Steroid Era is over, all hail our new LF skill set.
That's a little misleading, though, since there's an odd dearth of good-hitting left fielders in the AL this year. Among all outfielders, he ranks sixth in the AL in OPS, and fifteenth in the majors. And that's in a career year for him with the bat.
An indicator that Werth would like an agent that will get him the most money* possible. That could mean most money out of all potential bidders or most money out of the Phillies or some sort of combination of the two.
*money being a stand in for all of the things Werth wants out of his next contract.
or what #10 said
Additionally, the Phillies aren't about to drop an $11.5 million salary on the curb for nothing, and no team will knock on their door to absorb it.
He is good and the Phillies like getting to the playoffs.
And you're paying him $10 million next year that you could have have used to sign Werth to a long term deal. But that's neither here nor there.
Ibanez's production isn't relevant either. He's not going anywhere and he never was going anywhere. If he was going anywhere, he'd have been gone by now.
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