How do the Phillies have a better defense? The Mets rotation is better, period. Actually, Ace Starter might be a push. Base running is not an advantage for the Phillies, either.

Using Dewan's +/- from 2008, the Phillies were +74 and the Mets were +43. I expect the Phillies to regress a good amount from +74 but the Phillies are better all around the infield... significantly: Mets were -21 in the middle infield and -11 in the corner infield; Phils were +71 in the middle infield and +7 in the corners.

The Mets have it in the outfield. Not sure about catcher.

I agree that the Mets' rotation is better if you're talking about comparing each five's ERA. Santana really classes that rotation up. But if you're comparing the starters after Santana and Hamels, the Phillies got it by a little bit.

Howard is a huge advantage over Delgado? Reyes = Rollins?

Howard is a huge advantage over Delgado?

I noticed that, too. It's not like the Mets have Casey Kotchman at first. I guess you're expecting a steep Delgado decline?

Pushes: non-CL and non-SU relievers.

Phillies bullpen is that bad?

What about the Shake Shack over Bull's Bar-B-Que?

Only huge advantage for phillies is 2b

With beltran, reyes and castillo I'd say the mets clearly have better baserunners

ok after rtfa he has own "analysis" picking murphy to out ops ibanez yet somehow that is a huge advantage for the phillies? I know ibanez isn't getting a bump for his defense so this does not compute.

I was very surprised at how well the entire Phillie rotation projected. I know the Phillies had a very good rotation last year, but it seems to me that having 5 starters all project to be below 4.30 is very good. The Phillies certainly deserve the edge in the rotation because of the back half, though I think the Mets are better at the top.

On the offensive projections; Reyes is projected for an 834 OPS and Rollins 815; this is a difference of 19 points. That is considered a "wash". In RF, Ryan Church has a projection of a 825, and Jayson Werth 853. This is a difference of 28 points; that's a "slight advantage" for the Phillies? I am also kind of surprised Reyes and Rollins project as closely as they do; maybe it is a park effect thing. Just by OPS+, since that is what we're using, Rollins has the MVP year at 118, and then he is never better than the 103 range. Int he last 3 years the worst Reyes has done is 103, and the other two years is 115 and 118.

Also, just looking offensively, are these projections park adjusted or what? We don't know for sure how Citi will play, but probably not as good as CBP. (Of course, this would work in the Phillies favor for the pitching staff so we could just throw it out.)

All told, it's probably going to be really close again.

Why is defense a Philly advantage? Just using defensive efficiency, the Mets were 2nd in the NL and the Phillies were 6th. In 07, the Mets finished 3rd and the Phillies 10th. I understand that alone isn't enough to prove the Mets are better or anything, but I think it should be addressed more than to simply say the Phillies are better. That doesn't seem obvious to me at all.

Edit: Sorry, I didn't see your response in #2. Looking at the middle infield, Reyes had a poor defensive year last year. After being +16 and +13 the prior 2 years, he was a -2 last year. Also, Rollins had a fluky good year defensively; he went from +12 and a +7 in 06 and 07 to +23 last year. I don't think Reyes is as bad a defender as he was last year, and Rollins isn't as good as he was last year. Ditto Utley; he went from being a +16 and a +22 to a +43 last year. Castillo also had a bad defensive year last year, from back to back years of -3 to -14 last year. That being said, Castillo has an obvious reason for the decline; he's getting old and he was hurt, so it is entirely possible Castillo isn't as good a defender as he was in the past. But even so, the other 3 guys involved in the middle infield all strayed a lot from their past performance, and in a good direction for the Phillies and a bad one for the Mets. I don't think the defensive difference is as great as it was last year. If you just look at 07, the Phillies are +30 in the middle infield and the Mets are a +10. I think the +20 or so is a much better estimation of the difference than the +90 it was last year in the Phillies favor.


Of course, I just checked Pedro Feliz, and he went from +21 and +27 to +7 last year. But I don't think the Phillies are 90 plays better in the middle infield than the Mets, and that it where all of the difference between the two is from.

I think Left is a slight advantage for the Phillies. The closers are reasonably a push, but the Mets have a better bullpen. Castillo kills the Mets plus-minus -- he's minus-14 by himself. Utley is plus-47. So, other than second, the Mets defense is significantly better. I mean, how many different ways do you want to say Utley is better than Castillo. Reyes is better than Rollins because you have a still ascending vs. likely declining player.

Perez and Maine, even with Maine off the surgery, are much better than Moyer and Blanton. And then you have Park as the fifth starter? That can't possibly give any team an edge over anyone. Perez and Maine can dominate any night, if healthy. Moyer and Blanton are ham and eggers.

"Perez and Maine, even with Maine off the surgery, are much better than Moyer and Blanton. And then you have Park as the fifth starter? That can't possibly give any team an edge over anyone. Perez and Maine can dominate any night, if healthy. Moyer and Blanton are ham and eggers."

JA Happ projects very well for Philly. Moyer of course is ancient but he's pitched well too. I'm sure he'll be done one of these years but its hard to say when.

Moyer of course is ancient but he's pitched well too. I'm sure he'll be done one of these years but its hard to say when.

Based on pre-season predictions, he's been done every year since 2000.

I'm sure he'll be done one of these years but its hard to say when.

Butterflies take naps on Jamie Moyer fastballs. Always have, I know. But counting on him is pretty foolish. 2007 is just as likely in 2009 as is 2008.

Based on pre-season predictions, he's been done every year since 2000.

So then I guess he'll pitch forever.

Butterflies take naps on Jamie Moyer fastballs. Always have, I know. But counting on him is pretty foolish. 2007 is just as likely in 2009 as is 2008.

2007 would put him as a slightly below starter. That's not exactly disastrous for a guy who is expected to be in the mid/back of a rotation.

Here is CHONE offense+defense (+arm for catchers and outfielders):


Which adds up to 49 vs 62 for the starters, and -62 vs -100 for the benches (although the bench players obviously will not get enough PT to be that bad). It assumes full time PT, so you'll have to discount Utley if he's not ready, and probably Church and Castillo.

So, for position players only:

Phillies’ Huge Advantages: First base, second base, infield defense.
Phillies’ Slight Advantages: right field.
Pushes: Shortstop, Left field
Mets’ Slight Advantages: Catcher (because of Castro), bench, outfield defense
Mets’ Huge Advantages: Third base, center field.

Howard is a huge advantage over Delgado? Reyes = Rollins?

That almost lost the article for me.
Reyes has clearly outplayed Rollin 2/3 years and is younger,on the huge/slight/even scale I'd think you'd have to give that a slight advantage to the Mets.

Howard over Delgado, both are equally bad with the glove, Howard has out OPS'd Delgado 145-120 last 3 years. Last year Delgado beat Howard actually...

I think Howard is going to follow the Cecil Fielder career path, but Delgado is older... I'd call it a slight advantage for the Phils - but readily concede I could be wrong at that, Howard is a lot more likely to out OPS+ Delgado by 25+ than the other way around.


At LF- Ibanez is a defensive butcher, last year Murphy + Tatis essentially matched Ibanez with the bat without being as bad in the field- On the other hand I would think the Phils can be a bit more confident in Ibanez posting a 120 OPS+ than the Mets can be of their LFs. I'd give a slight edge to the Phils.

Phillies’ Huge Advantages: First base, second base, infield defense.

You mean second base defense. That's it. If you assume Castillo plays all year and that Utley posts those 2008 numbers off hip surgery.

We can probably debate all day about whether the Mets or Phillies are slightly better--I'd take the Phillies if you held a gun to my head--but at this point they're so close that it seems like whatever you want to call the "luck" department (injuries, performance variation, etc.) is going to decide it.

You mean second base defense. That's it.

No, he means second base. Even Castillo's best season offensively (2003, I guess, 5.1 WAR) falls way short of what Utley has done lately. Second base is a huge advantage for Philly, period.

Even Castillo's best season offensively (2003, I guess, 5.1 WAR) falls way short of what Utley has done lately. Second base is a huge advantage for Philly, period.

No, I was talking about "infield defense" not second base. But "infield defense" is just "second base defense." The other guys are a push.

No, he means second base.

he claims infield defense as a huge advantage for the Phils.

he meant 2b defense as opposed to IF defense

Actually I was double counting defense, since it's already included in the positional values. I was just matching the format of the article.

"Infield defense" was the sum of the defensive projections for each infielder. Utley vs. castillo makes up a huge part of that, but Feliz is also a great fielder vs. Wright's average fielding. Howard and Delgado project the same.

CHONE's defensive projections don't like Reyes at all (-5), which I disagree with, but he has perfomed to that level at times in the past. I think he has the ability to be anywhere from -5 to +10, personally.

This is how it breaks down in CHONE:



And my personal projection, since individual runs are too granular: (Poor, Fair, Average, Very Good, Excellent)



And yes, no need to say it, I am aware that I am history's greatest monster.

You mean second base defense. That's it. If you assume Castillo plays all year and that Utley posts those 2008 numbers off hip surgery.

Yeah, but does it matter? Say Utley is (hypothetically) 40 runs better than Castillo defensively, and the rest of the IF is a push. Is that any different than if each of the 4 Philly IF were 10 runs better than their Mets counterpart?

I think its fair to say Philly has a better IF defense; the backbone of that is definitely Utley, but I don't see how that matters all too much.

Yeah, but does it matter?

For accuracy's sake, yes I think it does.

If Alex Cora ends up getting a large portion of Castillo's innings in the field it changes it much more than if the 4 filly fielders were each +10

Yeah, but does it matter? Say Utley is (hypothetically) 40 runs better than Castillo defensively, and the rest of the IF is a push. Is that any different than if each of the 4 Philly IF were 10 runs better than their Mets counterpart?

Instinctly, I'd say it does. If only because Utley, as the second baseman, would not handle as many balls as the left side of the infield. If that difference were at shortstop maybe, but it seems like because of the hit distribution, having one's huge advantage at 2B is not the ideal place. But I really have no idea about this, I'm curious if anyone has looked at the issue.

(Now I do think that the Phils' have an advantage, since Feliz is a better defensive player than Wright and the other two are roughly a wash.)

I find the Delgado defense puzzling. He had a strong second half, but he looked done earlier. Just done.

Zips has Howard as two more rc27. A 35% difference. Not that rc27 is the be all, but I'm surpised at people saying Howard does not project as significantly better than Carlos.

With beltran, reyes and castillo I'd say the mets clearly have better baserunners

I don't see it.

2008 Mets: 138 SB, 36 CS
2008 Phils: 136 SB, 25 CS

If Alex Cora ends up getting a large portion of Castillo's innings in the field it changes it much more than if the 4 filly fielders were each +10

Yeah, I hear that. This is probably especially relevant since Utley is expected to miss at least a part of the season. But I don't think that was the point Salfino was trying to make; though it's possible I am wrong on that.

Instinctly, I'd say it does. If only because Utley, as the second baseman, would not handle as many balls as the left side of the infield. If that difference were at shortstop maybe, but it seems like because of the hit distribution, having one's huge advantage at 2B is not the ideal place.

It's certainly not the ideal place, but I still think it is accurate to say the Phillies have the better IF D even if their only advantage is at second base, if that gap is large enough. (I also agree with you that it isn't the only place they have an advantage, as I think Feliz is a better glove than Wright.)

But I don't think that was the point Salfino was trying to make; though it's possible I am wrong on that.

Well, I wrote this:

You mean second base defense. That's it. If you assume Castillo plays all year and that Utley posts those 2008 numbers off hip surgery

.

No matter "You mean second base defense. That's it" means, it's wrong, because Pedro Feliz is a great defensive third baseman and I think that outweighs whatever advantage the elderly Delgado may possibly still possess over Howard in his dotage.

I don't see it.

2008 Mets: 138 SB, 36 CS
2008 Phils: 136 SB, 25 CS

I didn't say basestealing; I said baserunning, which does involve SB but also much more, taking the extra base, advancing to third from first on a single, etc.

Re: base running, the Phillies had six players last year who are returning in '09 with an EQBRR of 1 run or greater. The Mets had seven last year, but only five are returning.

Phillies:

- Jimmy Rollins: 9.1
- Shane Victorino: 7.4
- Jayson Werth: 5.2
- Eric Bruntlett: 3.1
- Carlos Ruiz: 1.9
- Chase Utley: 1.2 (injury prone)

Mets:

- Jose Reyes: 8.3
- Carlos Beltran: 6.3
- Luis Castillo: 3.7 (old, injury-prone)
- Angel Pagan: 2.6 (buried on depth chart)
- Endy Chavez: 2.2 (went to Seattle)
- Damion Easley: 1.5 (unsigned)
- Argenis Reyes: 1.2 (buried on depth chart)

Howard is a huge advantage over Delgado. The same people who are applying the "younger, more upside" logic to the "Reyes > Rollins" claim are not applying it fairly to Howard versus Delgado.

Not one of the projections I used pegged Howard putting up an OPS under .905. Only one projection dared peg Delgado above an .820 OPS! Yes, that's an 85-point difference in Howard's minimum and Delgado's maximum!

Re: Rollins-Reyes, I'm optimistic about Rollins even though he lost nearly 100 points on SLG from '07 to '08. I'm willing to concede his power output in '07 was fluky as hell, so the 100-point swing isn't as drastic as one might think. However, Rollins' BB and K rates improved by a good amount. Overall, Rollins was a much smarter hitter last year as opposed to previous years -- he swung less, but made contact more, as his Plate Discipline section on FanGraphs illustrates.

Let me know if I missed anything.

Not one of the projections I used pegged Howard putting up an OPS under .905. Only one projection dared peg Delgado above an .820 OPS! Yes, that's an 85-point difference in Howard's minimum and Delgado's maximum!

Despite the fact that in the most recent season Howard had an .882 and Delgado a .871.

My personal guess Ryan Howard's 2009 OPS will be: .875
Delgado's will be: .820

I'm optimistic about Rollins

Rollins had the second best OPS+ of his career last year, and so many people are calling it an off year or a disaster- it wasn't, CA has it right, just ignore 2007's power numbers, and 2008 was a good solid year for Rollins- plus his sb/cs numbers 47/3???
pretty nice.

Despite the fact that in the most recent season Howard had an .882 and Delgado a .871.

Three points about Howard and why I think he'll improve in '09:

1. Howard faced an inordinate amount of left-handed pitching: 38% of his plate appearances came against them. Unless Manuel goes L-L-L with Utley, Howard, and Ibanez, I can't see Howard racking up that many at-bats against lefties again. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 38% of a LHH's PA against lefties is high.

2. Howard's OBP and walk rates were slightly depressed because he wasn't being intentionally walked as much.

3. Howard seems to have a natural BABIP in the .320-.330ish region, which would make his 2008 BABIP a bit below his average.

Also, I looked too quickly: Bill James' projection has Delgado at an .863 OPS. My apologies.

Howard is a huge advantage over Delgado.

Last year, in which Delgado played the first months recovering from a wrist injury, he posted wOBA of .364, while Howard's was .366. How can I look at that and think one is a huge advantage, unless Howard is a fantastic defensive player, which i doubt.

How can I look at that and think one is a huge advantage, unless Howard is a fantastic defensive player, which i doubt.

Howard outhit Delgado by a significant margin in 2007 and 2006, and is younger. I would think that virtually any projection system would have Howard outhitting Delgado by a good amount in 2009.

Personally I do not think Howard will age well, I think he will bounce around a 120-130 OPS+ for 2-3 years, and sink like a rock in his early-mid thirties.

Delgado will be 37, he seems to get inured more frequently and his production is getting erratic.
Even with my pessimism towards Howard he should still outhit Delgado 2009 and onward.

Nevermind

How can I look at that and think one is a huge advantage, unless Howard is a fantastic defensive player, which i doubt.

Because Delgado will be 37 and Howard will be 29. That's a huge difference, and it gives Howard a huge advantage in his projections.

Ryan Howard may not be exactly Mark Teixeira in terms of likely aging gracefully, but he's still a lot younger than Delgado.

1. Howard faced an inordinate amount of left-handed pitching: 38% of his plate appearances came against them. Unless Manuel goes L-L-L with Utley, Howard, and Ibanez, I can't see Howard racking up that many at-bats against lefties again.

Based on what we know about Manuel, why would we say he won't constantly go L-L-L with Utley, Howard and Ibanez?

Delgado has been all over the map as a Met. He had a .376 wOBA in '06, .336 in '07, and .364 in '08. I'd rather bet money on Danny Bonaduce being a productive member of society over the next ten years than on Delgado continuing his second-half swinging from last season.

I don't have the individual +/- numbers but Howard had a 2.6 UZR/150 last season while Delgado was at -3.5. Howard gets a bad rap but he's not exactly a liability defensively. He's certainly not great and he looks clumsy but he isn't bad.

In fact, Howard has been improving. His UZR/150's since 2005...

2005: -1.2
2006: -0.5
2007: 0.1
2008: 2.6

Delgado...

2005: -12.2
2006: -4.0
2007: 1.1
2008: -3.5

Based on what we know about Manuel, why would we say he won't constantly go L-L-L with Utley, Howard and Ibanez?

From what I've heard, he's not going to do that, but he really hasn't shown the ability to separate same-handed hitters, although he often does the pinch-hitting match-ups well.

I don't think separating same-handed hitters is really an "ability". It's not like Manuel is unaware that it's something people generally try to avoid. He just doesn't seem to think it's important.

Yeah, ability was a poor word selection. Check out how he's used his pinch-hitters, though -- he's actually been pretty good in that department in terms of platoon match-ups (R vs. L; L vs. R). I hope he can apply it to his starting position players, but even as a Phillies fan, I am not betting on it.

But remember, Howard is in the best shape of his career, that must count for something

Hey, while I'm thinking of it, I have two spots I need to fill up for my fantasy baseball league. If anyone is interested, send an e-mail to crashburnalley [at] gmail [dot] com. First come, first serve. For details about the league, click here.

Howard outhit Delgado by a significant margin in 2007 and 2006, and is younger. I would think that virtually any projection system would have Howard outhitting Delgado by a good amount in 2009.

Howard's young, but that doesn't seem to be helping him -- the last two years look an awful lot like an early decline phase for a big fat ballplayer.

So huge advantage at 1b for phillies because Delgado is going to be 37 and howard is 29, yet also big advantage at LF while Ibanez is 37 and Murphy is going to be 24?

I'm not saying Howard doesn't have an advantage of Delgado, just that it isn't huge.

Howard's young, but that doesn't seem to be helping him -- the last two years look an awful lot like an early decline phase for a big fat ballplayer.

That's simplistic, though. What are you looking at, besides raw OBP/SLG and counting numbers? I think I listed three good reasons for optimism for Howard, at least insofar as no one has refuted them yet. In case you missed them and would like to provide a counter-argument:

Three points about Howard and why I think he'll improve in '09:

1. Howard faced an inordinate amount of left-handed pitching: 38% of his plate appearances came against them. Unless Manuel goes L-L-L with Utley, Howard, and Ibanez, I can't see Howard racking up that many at-bats against lefties again. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 38% of a LHH's PA against lefties is high.

2. Howard's OBP and walk rates were slightly depressed because he wasn't being intentionally walked as much.

3. Howard seems to have a natural BABIP in the .320-.330ish region, which would make his 2008 BABIP a bit below his average.

I don't know why Howard wasn't IBB'ed as much in '08. I can't find any correlation between his IBB total per month and his production the previous month. If I took the time to dive in for each week or even each day, there might be some reason, but right now I don't see one.

I presume it's because some of Howard's weaknesses were exposed in '07 -- I'm sure that happens to any good hitter. Even Albert Pujols has weaknesses. Well, maybe he has one weakness (Tony LaRussa's flask?), but you get the point. I don't think the 50% slide in IBB's is his fault -- that's my point.

That's simplistic, though.

Maybe, but so is religious faith in a projection system that doesn't know he's a lardass.

So huge advantage at 1b for phillies because Delgado is going to be 37 and howard is 29, yet also big advantage at LF while Ibanez is 37 and Murphy is going to be 24?

This is turning into a see-saw. Earlier, I pointed out that those who were clamoring that Reyes has an advantage over Rollins because he's younger aren't adding similar age-advantage "points" to Howard over Delgado. I'm just looking for some consistency in how this is being weighed. The age thing is pretty overrated, in my opinion, because we're talking about just one year. If we're making three- or even five-year projections, then hell yes, include age.

I'm not saying Howard doesn't have an advantage of Delgado, just that it isn't huge.

In terms of probabilities (and correct me if I'm interpreting this wrong) using ZiPS...

Howard has a 60% chance of finishing in the top quintile in offense, and a 30% chance of finishing in the second quintile.

Delgado isn't even spotlighted in this regard.

OPS+ >140

Howard 52
Utley 36
Werth 2

OBP >.400

Utley 28
Howard 11
Werth 7

SLG >.550

Howard 77
Utley 38
Stairs 3

OPS+ >140

Wright 71
Beltran 36
Church 15

OBP >.400

Wright 49
Beltran 18
Castillo 9

SLG >.550

Wright 46
Beltran 27
Delgado 13

Delgado, according to ZiPS, has a 0% chance of putting up a 141 or greater OPS+ while Howard has a 52% chance.

Maybe, but so is religious faith in a projection system that doesn't know he's a lardass.

In the immortal words of Cowboy Chris, aimed at ESPN NFL reporter Ed Werder: "Cite your sources!"

Is Howard lazy? The only reports I've heard have been positive -- he's always working on his defense, he's in better shape than he was last year (although it's a cliche at this point), etc.

EDIT: How hypocritical of me to make claims and not provide sources in the same breath of demanding you do so.

CSN Philly, Leslie Gudel: http://csnphilly.com/pages/landing_phillies/?Gudel-Howard-Working-Hard-on-His-Defense=1&blockID=39903&feedID=693

ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3906917

Howard isn't going to get better, Reyes still might. Howard doesn't really have upside relative to recent years.

Howard's been all over the map, too. Look at first half last year and second half last year. Full seasons are no less arbitrary points in time. Delgado's Mets career is pretty much what would have been reasonably projected. He certainly showed no signs of decline last year, so .850-to-.900 is about chalk. Adjusting for park factors (Citi will play tough), they're pretty close, though Howard has an edge (call it slight).

1. Howard faced an inordinate amount of left-handed pitching: 38% of his plate appearances came against them. Unless Manuel goes L-L-L with Utley, Howard, and Ibanez, I can't see Howard racking up that many at-bats against lefties again. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 38% of a LHH's PA against lefties is high.

2. Howard's OBP and walk rates were slightly depressed because he wasn't being intentionally walked as much.

3. Howard seems to have a natural BABIP in the .320-.330ish region, which would make his 2008 BABIP a bit below his average.

1. Knowing how poorly he fares against LHP I anticipate even more AB's against LHP's unless he is platooned. Opposing managers know Howard is helpless against LHP and will use that against him.

2. Or maybe pitchers are realizing they dont' need to IBB him; his MVP had led to a "most feared" label that has proven to be unwarranted.

3. maybe his decline in babip is from the shift, or pitchers figuring out the holes in his swing.

I'm not too familiar with Zips, so I dont' really have a reply to that. But I will ask again why you have Ibanez as a huge advantage over Murphy?
After glancing at their projections on fangraphs they look remarkably similiar: wOBA for Murphy is 349.25, for Ibanez its .354. That is an average of the four projections on fangraphs: james, marcel, oliver and chone. If we add in defense Murphy moves ahead IMO.

Re: park factors, it's fine to account for them if we're comparing the players in a vacuum, but we're not. Howard is going to play 81 games at CBP this year, and Delgado is going to play 81 at Citi, which figures to be about as pitcher-friendly as Shea. Maybe I'm missing some line of logic, but I don't see the point in adjusting for park factors when the players aren't playing in different, neutral, or vacuum stadiums this year.

Howard isn't going to get better

Why? His K-rate went down and his walk rate didn't really go down by much when you figure that most of the decrease came from 50% less intentional walks. Additionally, he showed slight improvements in terms of plate discipline in that while he swung at 1% more pitches outside the strike zone, he made contact 2% more (it'd be interesting to see what the results of more OOZ contact are relative to others). Additionally, he swung and more in-the-zone pitches and made more contact as well.

Add in that his .289 BABIP last season was well under his career average of .334.

I don't really see the reason for pessimism other than hopping on the "He's Cecil Fielder" bandwagon.

Howard really hasn't been all over the map unless you expected him to OPS nearly 1.1 for most of his career. His first half last year makes up most of the BABIP problem I explained. In 417 plate appearances, he only had a BABIP of .271 in the first half.

Delgado had a 207-point difference in OPS from the first-half to the second-half. Howard had a 122-point difference.

He certainly showed no signs of decline last year

His first half wasn't a sign of that?

Salfino-
My apologies for misinterpreting what you wrote. I still disagree though, because Feliz is a better glove than Wright.

Crashburn-
I think your analysis is a tad slanted to the Phillies side, but probably no more than I would expect mine to be slanted to the Mets side.

I think Reyes has an advantage over Rollins; like I said before, since Reyes became Reyes in 2006, his worst season, 2007, saw him have a 103 OPS+; Rollins had a 103 last year and that was the second best of his career. That's before you get to the age thing.

I do happen to agree with you on Delgado vs Howard. Even though Howard has declined pretty substantially for the last 2 years (his OPS+ has gone from 167 to 144 to 124) I still think it is likely the Phillies have a solid advantage at the position. I think Howard is more durable than Delgado, and I also think, mainly based off the ages, he's going to be a better hitter than Carlos this year.


As has been the case the last few years, I think the teams are really really close and it'll probably come down to the last week again.

His first half wasn't a sign of that?

No, it was recovering from a hand injury he suffered the last day of the 07 season.

for additional evidence: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/why-delgado-is-not-done

1. Knowing how poorly he fares against LHP I anticipate even more AB's against LHP's unless he is platooned. Opposing managers know Howard is helpless against LHP and will use that against him.

Howard is certainly not helpless against lefties. He's not great, but not helpless. Consider that in '06, he had a .923 OPS against 'em in nearly 200 plate appearances.

I don't know how you can project more PA against LHP. Where is the logic? Who was added in the NL East that will add to the platoon disadvantage?

The Braves added all righty starters. The Mets added all righty relievers.

2. Or maybe pitchers are realizing they dont' need to IBB him; his MVP had led to a "most feared" label that has proven to be unwarranted.

Where's the proof? I could just as easily say that pitchers didn't want to put on a base runner in front of Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth.

3. maybe his decline in babip is from the shift, or pitchers figuring out the holes in his swing.

MattS did a study at The Good Phight and (from the comments) concluded:

Howard didn’t have 3000 PA but he has a huge on base vs [bases] empty gap as well.

[...]

If the difference is actually about .022 points of batting average for lefties and .009 for righties, then that means that about 1.5 more hits per year would come with runners on base for lefties, and that might make about 1 run of difference a year per. It’s not a huge effect but keep in mind that if a one-win player is worth $5MM, then 1 run is worth $500K, which makes Ryan Howard and Chase Utley probably $500K more valuable than their slash stats would suggest. That’s not insigificant.

As to whether it would counteract the LOOGY usage, I’m not sure. I think that if Ryan Howard hits .230 vs LHP and .300 vs RHP then that means he gets 1 hit fewer every extra 14 at-bats he gets against lefties. I think I found in a previous article that he gets about 10% more at-bats against lefties than the average Phillie, so that would mean he gets about 4 fewer hits and 4 more outs than he would have if he got the same number of at bats against lefties, which probably amounts to about 4 runs or so. The question is how much of that is because of the lefties batting around him. Maybe it actually is about 1/4 of that, so these two effects might actually cancel. Very back of the envelope approximation in this paragraph, but I think it’s roughly true.

But I will ask again why you have Ibanez as a huge advantage over Murphy?

After glancing at their projections on fangraphs they look remarkably similiar: wOBA for Murphy is 349.25, for Ibanez its .354. That is an average of the four projections on fangraphs: james, marcel, oliver and chone. If we add in defense Murphy moves ahead IMO.

Using the average of the projections is not an accurate statistical procedure. You'd have to find the raw totals for everything that gets compiled into OBP and SLG and find those averages, and then find the OBP and SLG for the averages.

I don't get how, with just 131 at-bats at the Major League level, anyone can confidently predict Murphy to be so productive offensively. It's not like he had an amazing Minor League career.

Based on the small sample size, I think it's bunk science to so confidently predict Murphy to do anything on one extreme end of the scale, meaning it's crazy to say he'll flop and it's crazy to say he'll perform very well. I'll be surprised if his OPS ends up as high as it's projected. I will happily eat crow if he does so.

I don't know how you can project more PA against LHP. Where is the logic? Who was added in the NL East that will add to the platoon disadvantage

Where is the logic that he'll see less?....

Where's the proof?

His # of IBB

Using the average of the projections is not an accurate statistical procedure.

########; It's sure better than just using the highest projection.

Crashburn Alley,

Generally speaking, I am in the camp of preferring the in-prime player to the older player. I am more extreme than most on this- just wrote a column on the issue. I agree that it is difficult to project Delgado, given his age and split from first to second half.

But you're not at all concerned about Ryan Howard's trend in OPS+, 2006-2008: 167, 144, 124?

And as for two of the reasons you cited for a rebound- while I don't see evidence that he'll receive more at-bats against lefties, I don't see any reason to assume he'll receive fewer at-bats against lefties. If it is Ibanez as opposed to Burrell behind him, that certainly won't help. If it's Werth, playing the percentages means you are probably better off with a lefty against Werth than a righty against Howard. I'm assuming rep will dictate this anyway.

Also, don't you think the two pieces- more ABs against lefty pitching, fewer IBBs-are likely related? Why intentionally walk Howard when you can just bring a lefty in and get him out?

The third reason is BABIP- I'm agnostic on this one. You could well be right, or his impotence against lefties could lower his overall BABIP at this point.

When does Utley project to return?

While we can argue if Reyes/Rollins is a push (I think Reyes is a slight edge) or the difference between Howard and Delgado (measuring offense same as difference between Victorino and Beltran but haven't heard those complaints). Also no comments that the Phillies pitchers are underrated due to park effects. As Conor says, pretty good tad slanted to Philly.

While we've gotten into baserunning and fielding defense (Crashburn did his homework) I haven't seen any comments on the core comparison which is based off a best case scenario. How much should volatility be taken into account when ranking the teams.

Delgado gets compared based on an OPS of 863 which is 43 points higher than the second highest forecast for him. The Mets hitters highest OPS is on average 27 points above the average forecasted OPS, the Phillies 20 points were higher. The Mets hitters (Delgado and Evans especially) a wider range of possible outcomes than the Phillies.

Conversely, the Phillies pitchers had far greater volatility in their forecasts. The largest top/bottom differnce in ERA for the Mets starters was .57 (Santana). The Phils - the smallest was Hamels at .36 but Moyer .85, Blanton .88 and Happ at 1.29.

If the starting point was average, the volatility would imply to me that a team could take it if they performed at the top of the range. But since we are going off top of the range, it appears that the edge goes to Philly on offense and the Mets on pitching. Love to know your thoughts.

BTW - shouldn't Sean Green be in the Mets pen?

I don't really see the reason for pessimism other than hopping on the "He's Cecil Fielder" bandwagon.

That's me :-)

Where is the logic that he'll see less?

38% is a lot of plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Left-handers in the NL East Howard won't be facing: Billy Wagner, Scott Schoenweis, Mike Hampton, Jo-Jo Reyes (presumably), Will Ohman, Royce Ring, Mark Hendrickson, Arthur Rhodes, Ray King.

New LHP he'll be facing: I can't think of one.

His # of IBB

You're using the chicken-egg fallacy. First you say his low IBB total was caused by pitchers realizing they don't need to intentionally walk him. As proof, you point to his low IBB total.

It's sure better than just using the highest projection.

FYI, if I didn't, Murphy would look significantly worse, so it doesn't really help your argument any.

Generally speaking, I am in the camp of preferring the in-prime player to the older player.

Understandable, but as I mentioned before, age might play more of a factor if we weren't looking simply six months into the future. Age is less of a factor if we are looking at a short period of time in the very near future.

But you're not at all concerned about Ryan Howard's trend in OPS+, 2006-2008: 167, 144, 124?

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned, but I think there's plenty of reason for optimism. If you haven't, check out what I quoted from the ZiPS projections -- according to ZiPS, Howard has a 52% chance of putting up an OPS+ of 141 or better. Delgado isn't even listed, meaning his probability is at least below 1%.

I don't see any reason to assume he'll receive fewer at-bats against lefties.

See the list of in-bound and out-bound NL East lefties I listed above.

Additionally, please correct me if I am wrong, but 38% of one's plate appearances against the left-handed kind is very high.

If it's Werth, playing the percentages means you are probably better off with a lefty against Werth than a righty against Howard.

2008 Werth, vs. LHP: 1.020 OPS
2008 Howard, vs. RHP: .966 OPS

Career Werth, vs. LHP: .920
Career Howard, vs. RHP: 1.065

Hard to tell, really.

more ABs against lefty pitching, fewer IBBs-are likely related?

2005: 63 PA vs. LHP, 0 IBB by LHP
2006: 225 PA vs. LHP, 3 IBB by LHP
2007: 246 PA vs. LHP, 3 IBB by LHP
2008: 265 PA vs. LHP, 2 IBB by LHP

I'd say no.

We can probably debate all day about whether the Mets or Phillies are slightly better--I'd take the Phillies if you held a gun to my head--but at this point they're so close that it seems like whatever you want to call the "luck" department (injuries, performance variation, etc.) is going to decide it.

Someone who knows the Phillies better than I do can describe if they want where Phillies management has erred, but it seems to me the Mets have made their own luck this offseason that once again puts them at a slight disadvantage:

1. Shaky corner OFers, again, when it was a buyer's market.
2. Overpaying for bullpen help, somewhat misjudging the market, in part for fear of looking like they weren't doing enough.
3. A repairable problem at 2b, where a cheap fix was available through February.
4. A less than solid rotation, and the choice not to go after Marquis, who himself has been very solid.
5. Madoff be damned. We're paying for a new stadium, and all we're getting is the same lousy payroll in the best buyers' market since collusion? Gah.

I'll step out of the argument for now, I feel like I'm lecturing, and I don't want to take that kind of tone. I think this is a great discussion. I'll come back later tonight and clear up anything I may have been ambiguous about.

2. Overpaying for bullpen help, somewhat misjudging the market, in part for fear of looking like they weren't doing enough.

Overpaying? Everyone has been saying the contract K-Rod got has been nothing short of a steal in the Met's favor.

In what was given up for Putz & Green, the only chips surrendered that might hurt a bit are Joe Smith & Mike Carp. And I'm not sold on Carp. I do think they might miss Smith. But Endy (and I was there for "The Catch!") and Heilman (addition by subtraction, since traded again) will not have this Met fan shedding any tears.

So I don't see where the Mets overpaid.

Or am I missing something?

3. A repairable problem at 2b, where a cheap fix was available through February.

Didn't Hudson (assuming you are talking about him) say something like if he was a team he wouldn't have signed him, knowing his injury status?

I can't find it now; maybe I am totally making it up then.

I dont think they really overpaid for bullpen help; but I would probably agree with #1 and possibly #4 as well.

Understandable, but as I mentioned before, age might play more of a factor if we weren't looking simply six months into the future. Age is less of a factor if we are looking at a short period of time in the very near future.

Doesn't this argue in favor of Delgado?

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned, but I think there's plenty of reason for optimism. If you haven't, check out what I quoted from the ZiPS projections -- according to ZiPS, Howard has a 52% chance of putting up an OPS+ of 141 or better. Delgado isn't even listed, meaning his probability is at least below 1%.

And like I said, I think it is perfectly reasonable to prefer Howard to Delgado in 2009- if I had to bet on one over the other, OPS+, I'd bet Howard. But it's really close for me, largely on the basis of Howard's diminishing numbers.

See the list of in-bound and out-bound NL East lefties I listed above.
Additionally, please correct me if I am wrong, but 38% of one's plate appearances against the left-handed kind is very high.

Well, for the Mets for instance, I expect a second lefty- Ron Villone, for example. But I also expect that different/remaining lefties will be used against Howard, rather than the Mets saying, for example, "Well, Schoeneweis is gone. We'll use a righty rather than Feliciano against Howard."

Hard to tell, really.

Right- my guess is rep is a big-time tiebreaker.

2005: 63 PA vs. LHP, 0 IBB by LHP
2006: 225 PA vs. LHP, 3 IBB by LHP
2007: 246 PA vs. LHP, 3 IBB by LHP
2008: 265 PA vs. LHP, 2 IBB by LHP

I think this isn't the stat to focus on. The point isn't how many lefties are intentionally walking him- the point is how many more times managers are bringing in a lefty to face him, rather than having a RIGHTY walk him intentionally. So the fact that he's facing more lefties, and his IBBs are going down- which as the above table makes clear, is exclusively a product of fewer righties IBBing him- makes intuitive sense to me.

in bound lefties - Scott Olsen

Olsen was already in the NL East; he just changed teams.

Why has no one mentioned coaching? To me, Manuel is the obvious choice...

You're using the chicken-egg fallacy. First you say his low IBB total was caused by pitchers realizing they don't need to intentionally walk him. As proof, you point to his low IBB total

Because IBB is the one PA that Howard has no control over. It's a decision based on the situation and perceived threat. Since Managers decided not to IBB Howard nearly as much as before, I see no reason to think he will regain that part of his game(respect). Trends tend to continue.

FYI, if I didn't, Murphy would look significantly worse, so it doesn't really help your argument any.

What? please explain? Worse than a huge disadvantage? I used the average of four projections for both and they ended up essentially the same. Not following at all.

Considering that both Howard and Utley saw roughly 38% lefties the last two years, I wouldn't bet on that number decreasing with Ibanez replacing Burrell.

You guys are all gonna be so pissed when you're fighting for a wildcard spot.

You guys are all gonna be so pissed when you're fighting for a wildcard spot.

It's not the "fighting for" part that pisses us off. It is one of the two possible outcomes of said fight that causes the problem.

You guys are all gonna be so pissed when you're fighting for a wildcard spot.

The Marlins are my pick to win the division. Their pitching has the highest upside, they'll score runs with all that power, and with some fluckey good performances from their bullpen, I think they'll win a very close race.

Realistically, I think the Braves are just slightly behind the other three non-Nats teams in the division and it would be that surprising if they won that division but I always overrate the Braves, whom I thought were going to be one of the best teamsin the NL th last two seasons.

I'm not saying Howard doesn't have an advantage of Delgado, just that it isn't huge

Exactly. I find it hard to give a guy a huge advantage when he was worse last year.

New LHP he'll be facing: I can't think of one.

Jon Niese.

it would be that surprising if they won that division but I always overrate the Braves, whom I thought were going to be one of the best teamsin the NL th last two seasons.

I meant to say it would not be that surprising if they won, I just think they needed one more big bat and didn't get it. The Frenchy, Blanco, and Anderson outfield could be really bad overall. I know they have some minor league talent at position but there's usually an adjustment period.

Exactly. I find it hard to give a guy a huge advantage when he was worse last year.

Why? Howard was way, way better the over the 2006-2007 period, he's younger and he's a better defender. All of the objective projection systems that weigh these things say that Howard will be a significantly better hitter after adjusting for park. I don't see why it's hard to acknowledge that.

Ryan Howard isn't a better defender than Delgado. The UZR numbers are too close to say anything definitively and subjectively Howard is a butcher. Delgado's no Keith Hernandez but Howard is too bad to be a considerably better defender.

The Phils won the division last year because their bullpen was much better than the Met bullpen. This year, the Mets look like they have closed the gap or perhaps surpassed the Phils WRT bullpen. The Phils pitching will be worse this year when compared to last year (bullpen and Moyer regression) and the Phils didn't upgrade the offense. The Mets upgraded their bullpen but are likely going to be about the same overall talent-wise because they'll likely get less from their Big 4 + Delgado.

It's too close to call.

In the immortal words of Cowboy Chris, aimed at ESPN NFL reporter Ed Werder: "Cite your sources!"

A source for "Ryan Howard is a lardass"? Well, okaaay, how about this? Or this?

Overpaying? Everyone has been saying the contract K-Rod got has been nothing short of a steal in the Met's favor.

Not sure where you hang out, but no one is now say that contract was a steal. In fact, given how the market has collapse (would you have predicted anything like the contracts Dunn, Abreu, or Hudson finally signed?) I can't believe that K-Rod would have gotten more than he did--isn't that one mark of a bad contract, that it was the most one side could possibly have gotten. The Mets got the shiny closer, and they paid a lot for the privilege.

In what was given up for Putz & Green, the only chips surrendered that might hurt a bit are Joe Smith & Mike Carp. And I'm not sold on Carp. I do think they might miss Smith. But Endy (and I was there for "The Catch!") and Heilman (addition by subtraction, since traded again) will not have this Met fan shedding any tears.

I think by any standard it was a lot to give up, and iirc that was the sentiment at the time.

If the Mets don't make the playoffs is Omar finally gone?

Why? Howard was way, way better the over the 2006-2007 period, he's younger and he's a better defender. All of the objective projection systems that weigh these things say that Howard will be a significantly better hitter after adjusting for park. I don't see why it's hard to acknowledge that.

IMO I don't believe Howard will be much, much, better than Delgado. Better?

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned, but I think there's plenty of reason for optimism. If you haven't, check out what I quoted from the ZiPS projections -- according to ZiPS, Howard has a 52% chance of putting up an OPS+ of 141 or better. Delgado isn't even listed, meaning his probability is at least below 1%.

Speaking of lardass, am I right that Zips doesn't differentiate between a player with two consecutive drops in production as opposed to two consecutive increases in production, and that it does a simple 543 with no month to month or first half-second half breakdown?

.800 .833 1.400 2.233

I think Howard is getting a negative by not having Royce Ring around.

I am surprised at the expected production for Howard. 20 point drops in OPS+ are bad things, or they used to be when I was a kid. Certainly consecutive seasons of such decline. If Howard was injured (and maybe he was I don't know about), then that makes sense for a bounce back.

Speaking of lardass, am I right that Zips doesn't differentiate between a player with two consecutive drops in production as opposed to two consecutive increases in production, and that it does a simple 543 with no month to month or first half-second half breakdown?

You're probably thinking of Marcel which is designed to be blood simple (and the weights are, or were, 5/3/2). I don't know the coefficients ZiPS uses but those are probably in the ballpark.

Why folks consider weighting the previous three years 5/3/2 as NOT modeling a time trend I don't have the slightest idea.

As to why projection systems don't (generally) give an additional boost to guys on 3- or 4-year "trends" -- it's because there's no evidence it's at all predictive after you've controlled for the main time trend, age, etc. If there's a hole in the projection systems, it's injury-related performance changes but then I'm not sure that the positive (i.e. Delgado has "recovered" from his injury) outweighs the negative (i.e. Delgado's old and his wrist will probably never be the same again).

As promised, I'll respond to the comments that have been left since my departure.

Re, #72:

Doesn't this argue in favor of Delgado?

It doesn't argue in favor of anyone.

I don't think most of us are really all that far apart on the Howard/Delgado spectrum. I just don't understand how anyone can expect Delgado to be so likely to outproduce Howard in 2009. None of the projections see it so I'm wondering what most of the guys here know that the projections haven't factored in.

And I don't say that with one ounce of snark -- I am legitimately curious.

Well, for the Mets for instance, I expect a second lefty

The Mets have been linked to Will Ohman as well. What are the chances the Mets do, in fact, go with Niese as their second lefty?

Ohman, I think, is the only lefty left that would provide an upgrade. Villone and Niese are expected to have mid-4 ERA's.

Right- my guess is rep is a big-time tiebreaker.

Well, according to the doomsday prognosticators re: Howard, wouldn't it be smarter to go after a "lardass" with holes in his swing? Not saying you've said this but I'm just noticing a logical inconsistency.

Great point, I didn't bring up the right stats as it pertains to facing LHP and being intentionally walked. I'll see what I can find when I look at it in more detail.

Because IBB is the one PA that Howard has no control over. It's a decision based on the situation and perceived threat. Since Managers decided not to IBB Howard nearly as much as before, I see no reason to think he will regain that part of his game(respect). Trends tend to continue.

What trend? It's one season. Howard has at least some degree of control over it. It's not like they would have given a free pass to Abraham Nunez if he had been at the plate in that same spot.

What? please explain? Worse than a huge disadvantage? I used the average of four projections for both and they ended up essentially the same. Not following at all.

You said that your method of simply clumping the projections together and finding the average is at least as viable a method as picking the most optimistic projections, as I chose to highlight. With your method, your averages will be thrown off by outliers -- which should be instinctively red-flagged -- and you're not weighing the projections properly. For instance, the Bill James and CHONE projections have Murphy at around 450 PA, but Marcel has him under 250 PA. If you weigh Murphy's Marcel projection equally as Bill James and CHONE, then you're making a mistake.

By nature, my method of highlighting the most optimistic projection favors Murphy because Bill James is very optimistic about Murphy: .845 OPS. Players who were close to an .845 OPS last season: Joe Mauer, Curtis Granderson, Nate McLouth. Sorry, but Murphy ain't no Mauer or Granderson and probably not a McLouth.

There is absolutely no reason to project Murphy to put up an OPS that high. Where is the logic?

He had 131 MLB AB last season to work with -- that's it. As a Minor Leaguer, he only racked up 100+ AB in one location twice: 2007 in A with Port St. Lucie (.768 OPS) and in 2008 in AA with Binghamton (.870 OPS).

Re: the pictures of Howard -- how do they prove he's a "lardass"? He's a naturally big guy, and he doesn't have rolls of fat. He's never been in bodybuilder shape but he's never been Artie Lange, either. You're going to have to come up with something more substantive and less subjective than cherry-picked pictures off of Google Images.

I gave you two examples of Howard improving his defense and being in good shape.

Ryan Howard isn't a better defender than Delgado. The UZR numbers are too close to say anything definitively and subjectively Howard is a butcher. Delgado's no Keith Hernandez but Howard is too bad to be a considerably better defender.

Howard's UZR/150's since 2005...

2005: -1.2
2006: -0.5
2007: 0.1
2008: 2.6

Delgado...

2005: -12.2
2006: -4.0
2007: 1.1
2008: -3.5

Total of -18.6 for Delgado and +1.0 for Howard. I'd say that's a pretty big advantage.

As someone who watches Howard on a regular basis, I can also say that subjectively, he's not that bad. He does a lot of things right, but he looks stupid when he does something wrong because he's not a graceful human being. We tend to remember that stuff more.

Total of -18.6 for Delgado and +1.0 for Howard. I'd say that's a pretty big advantage.

That's skewed by the 2005 season and I'm not sure how relevant that is to the discussion. It's not like we are giving much weight to Delgado's awesome 2005 season with the bat either since it was 4 years ago. A 3/2/1 weighting of those numbers gives Howard a 3 run advantage with UZR, well within in the error range. I have watched both players a lot the last few years and I simply don't believe either one is good enough with the glove to be considerably better than either one defensively.

In what was given up for Putz & Green, the only chips surrendered that might hurt a bit are Joe Smith & Mike Carp. And I'm not sold on Carp. I do think they might miss Smith. But Endy (and I was there for "The Catch!") and Heilman (addition by subtraction, since traded again) will not have this Met fan shedding any tears.

I think by any standard it was a lot to give up, and iirc that was the sentiment at the time.

Wasn't my sentiment at the time, and it's not my sentiment now. Once you adjust for usage patterns, Green is as good as Smith, and perhaps better. And Putz is vastly superior to Heilman. The others are replacement players whom the Mets will never miss for a moment, other than (in the case of Endy) in a "thanks for the memories" kind of way. Omar took advantage of the Mariners wanting to shed a salary, and he got the no-doubt-about-it best player in the deal, who filled a need for the team. I'd make that deal every single time, and I'd fire a GM who hesitated to make it.

As for the Howard/Delgado comparison, I am of the view that Howard IS, in fact, a defensive butcher and the two are about equal defensively. I think Carlos II actually does some things very specific to the Mets' IF defense that are quite good; he has, for instance, adjusted to David Wright's tendency to have throws sail to the catcher's side of 1B. He recognizes this early and steps off and tags runners coming down the line quite well, saving errors that Wright was making two years ago. It doesn't gain Delgado anything extra in the stats -- it's still scored a 5-3 PO -- but it's good defense that keeps a runner off the bases and saves Wright a handful of E-5's. Which isn't to say he's good, overall. He's not. But neither is Howard.

That said, anyone who doesn't think the Phillies should project to have a solid advantage at 1B is kidding himself. Delgado is, after all, 94 years old, and thus seriously apt to decline. What? He's not 94, but only 37? Picky, picky. You get my point. Howard is just likely to be a better hitter. I expect Carlos II to be a slightly below-average hitter for a 1B, but adequate. If the Mets win the division, it isn't likely to be because Delgado out-produces Howard . . . and it doesn't need to be.

The notion that Jimmy Rollins is the equal of Jose Reyes is equally amusing. Rollins has had ONE year in his whole career, as he now hits his 30s, with an OPS+ over 103. The fact that he parlayed that one year and some trash talk into a massively undeserved MVP award doesn't make him Jose Reyes's equal. Even though he's almost five years younger, Reyes has already had two seasons actually better than Rollins' best year (once you take baserunning into account). The Mets have a big edge at SS, and it will only get bigger every season for the rest of their careers (assuming, of course, Jose stays healthy in any given year).

As for pitching, we shall see. Pitchers and their stupid arms are so damned unreliable. The Mets project to have a better rotation, and pen, but who the hell knows? On that issue -- whose quality arms stay healthy, and who has to turn to the fringe/cringe starters more -- the division will turn.

And the Fish ain't gonna win squat, except the fight with the Braves for third.

Reyes has already had two seasons actually better than Rollins' best year (once you take baserunning into account).

Reyes the last three years has been worth about 16.5 wins. Rollins has been worth 17.

Rollins is also a superior base runner and a superior defender.

The Marlins are my deep sleeper pick to win it all. They have a lot of upside, and the Mets, Phils, and Braves all have enough downside that I can see them squeaking to the division title. Then . . .

and you're not weighing the projections properly. For instance, the Bill James and CHONE projections have Murphy at around 450 PA, but Marcel has him under 250 PA. If you weigh Murphy's Marcel projection equally as Bill James and CHONE, then you're making a mistake.

I see absolutely no reason to do this. The "performance" estimate is a point estimate of the "true talent." Who cares how much playing time the different systems have projected. There's no reason to think that Marcel is a less reliable projection of "true talent" because it estimates he'll have only 250 PA.

Rollins is also a superior base runner and a superior defender.

Rollins is neither of those things, but whatever. He happened to have a better defensive year than Reyes last year, just as he had a better year with the bat in 2007 even though that doesn't make him a better hitter in terms of overall ability or what you'd project.

I have little doubt that if all the starters stay healthy (and even assuming that Utley is ready to start opening day), the Mets will have a bigger advantage on the left side of the infield than the Phillies will have on the right. Because as much as I agree that Howard projects to be better than Delgado, I am equally confident the Mets' advantage at SS will be even bigger. So if 2B and 3B cancel each other out, Mets win.

Here's another way to look at the overall team comparison, by the way. I don't think anyone can argue with the proposition that the Mets have improved themselves. You can quibble with whether they did it in the most efficient way, or whether improving the pen THAT much instead of adding a corner OF was the right way to go. But they are clearly stronger than the team that imploded because they couldn't hold leads in 2007 and 2008, but which (despite that flaw) was just a whisper behind the Phillies both years.

I have yet to be convinced that the Phillies are even as good as they were in 2007 or 2008, because no one has made the case to me they won't be worse for the trade-off of Ibanez for Burrell. So if the Mets are better and the Phillies are worse, with teams that were pretty damn close to pick 'em before based on two years of data, you should now have: advantage Mets.

I happen to agree with Sam on most of his points.

I don't see how anyone can say the Mets gave up too much for Putz and Green, and I don't remember anyone saying so at the time, Ark. I mean really, what did they give up? How could it be considered too much? Green is probably a pretty close replication of Smith, and Putz is way better than Heilman. As for the sentiment, Transaction Oracle said

This is quite a good trade for the Mets.

Christina Kahrl at BP said

That Minaya managed to make this deal, a deal he really did have to make to finally, completely, and thoroughly address the team's end-game issues—and not simply in the ninth inning—is a tribute to the man's creativity. With so much of the lineup already set, what else should we have expected? Well, another starting pitcher, but it's not even mid-December.

To be honest, I don't know of anyone who thought the Mets gave up too much.

Also, I don't think $12 million a year is a lot for a closer. Kerry Wood got about 10 million from Cleveland.

I also think Reyes gives the Mets a clear advantage at SS. As Sam and I have pointed out, the only way Rollins is close to Reyes is because of the career year he had in 2007, since Reyes became Reyes in 06, he has been as good or better than every season Jimmy Rollins has had save for 2007. Obviously, you don't get to just throw out Rollins's career year, it still counts, but Reyes has a better record of performance than Rollins and that is why he projects better. Throw in the age advantage and I don't see how Reyes doesn't have an advantage. As to the base running, since we have been using the last 3 years, according to the stats on Bill James online, Reyes is a +134 (whatever that means) and Rollins +126. That doesn't really seem like a whole lot of a difference to me.

I also think Howard is a better bet than Delgado, by a fair amount.

To be honest, I don't know of anyone who thought the Mets gave up too much.

I think we did, and that too much was Joe Smith. 3.51 career ERA, 120 career ERA+, 8.1 career K/9. I seriously think that guy's generic name implies generic reliever and prevents him from being recognized as an above-league-average relief pitcher. He was the real centerpiece of the Putz deal and Heilman the throw-in, despite the perception the other way around. Plus he's cheap and not even into arb years yet.