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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Sunday, June 10, 2012
I first met Charlie Manuel not long after the Phillies and I split up…
Tie game on the road, use any reliever but the guy earning $50 million, the most ever for a relief pitcher. That’s been the M.O. of Phillies manager Charlie Manuel all season and the wayward strategy bit his team again yesterday when the Phillies lost 6-4 to the Baltimore Orioles. Vance Worley went six innings, followed by Jake Diekman and Antonio Bastardo with one inning each. With the game tied 4-4 going into the bottom of the ninth, Manuel turned to struggling right-hander Chad Qualls for two innings, followed by last night’s call-up B.J. Rosenberg, making his Major League debut. The game ended in Rosenberg’s second inning of work when Adam Jones hit a walk-off two-run home run. Three of the five at-bats involving Rosenberg had a leverage index above the 2.00 threshold.
It marked at least the sixth time this season that Manuel has opted not to use Papelbon in a tie game on the road and the Phillies went on to lose.
...In all of the above six games, there were clear and obvious opportunities to use Papelbon that simply went unnoticed. Papelbon, recently signed to a four-year, $50 million contract and easily the Phillies’ best reliever, sat in the bullpen without so much as getting up to stretch because the Phillies’ manager is too entrenched in baseball orthodoxy to put his team in a better position to go home with a victory.
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1. I Am Not a Number Posted: June 10, 2012 at 10:19 AM (#4152871)*Leverage Index for first PA
Two observations:
1) In 2011 the Phillies had 8 such chances overall. This kind of thing seems quite variable from year to year.
2) In 2011, given the total number of chances per team, this issue of reliever usage may have been meaningful to only a few teams anyway (as compared to say the reluctance to use the "closer" in the 8th inning).
*San Francisco was 6-6, and 10 of those games went into extra innings. Wilson was 0-1, with 5 saves and 6 non-appearances.
*Atlanta was 6-6, and 9 of those games went into extra innings. Kimbrel was 0-1, with 4 saves and 1 other GF with a ND.
*Boston was 3-3, and all of those games went into extra innings. Papelbon was 0-0, with 2 saves and 3 no-decisions in 3 such games Boston played in September: 1.0 IP on 9/5; 2.0 IP on 9/10; and 2.1 IP on 9/25.
Of the three teams' managers, Francona relied the most on his "closer" in these types of situations, but with similar results.
Even though a win in April counts as much as a win in September, it is interesting to note that the Braves were 6.5 games ahead of the Cardinals at the end of play on 9/7, which was the date of the last such game the Braves played.
Is that getting burned, though? If you bring in Hawkins instead of Rivera, and he pitches the same way, you lose outright. I guess it's a case for Leo Durocher's maxim "never save a pitcher for tomorrow, tomorrow it may rain." Closers tend to get saved till tomorrow, whatever the chance of rain.
But it takes a freaking hurricane to postpone an MLB game these days, so Leo's #### don't work no more.
once something becomes The Rule and the media is gonna kill you if you break it and it DOESN'T work, well, managers go by doing what everyone else does
found an interesting article on how people don't/won't act outside that infamous Box
and it's not maddie
Is that really getting burned though? You use your best players first so you can extend the game. The goal of bringing in Rivera before a 'save' opp was met.
In a sense, it is. If you bring in Hawkins instead of Rivera and he coughs it up in the 10th, the result is the same but you still (presumably) have Rivera available to throw tomorrow's game. Now, you've lost this one and your best guy may not be able to close out the next game.
Not that I'm supporting the idea of keeping your closer out of a tied game, just noting that the scenario RB presented is one of the worst results you can get.
Also, particularly in NYC and Philly, managers are judged on results on a minute-to-minute basis. Rightly or wrongly, they manage so as not to have to answer tough questions from the press/ownership.
In the example above, if Girardi brings in Hawkins in "regulation", who blows it, the main story is "Hawkins costs the Yankees a game!" Doing it the way he did it, the main story was "Girardi doesn't know how to manage!"
How much mainstream grief is Manuel getting for how he's using Papelbon this year? Obviously, the tenor of the linked article is "Manuel doesn't know how to manage!"
What did the local papers say?
Right. Hence, my question. Has the criticism of Manuel's failure to use Papelbon worked its way into the mainstream media?
Yes, mostly because I've been shrieking like a banshee about it.
https://twitter.com/magelb/status/211922207633440769
https://twitter.com/DavidHaleTNJ/status/211922319348736002
https://twitter.com/HighCheese/status/211917465326854144
In extra-innings, Tito would eventually bring in Paps before going to a white-flag pitcher....usually. In 2008, the opening game in TB, Tito let white-flag* Timlin throw before Paps.
*To be fair, it may have not been apparent yet that was who Timlin was going to be.
like what manager is putting his closer into a tie game in the 9th on the road? in JUNE??? dude, it's just not done. i don't know what you think complaining about it is gonna do except get the pitchers/bullpen/players/mainstream media all pi$$ed off
managers don't even like to put their closer into the game in the 8th with the game on the line and the toughest hitter coming up.
haven't you heard all the 999 Kazillion interviews from the PITCHERS saying They Want To Know Their Role And When They're Coming In?
Of course that game wasn't tied when Papelbon was brought in the game.
I think what's different about this situation is:
a) Paplebon's pricetag.
b) The near complete absence of other good pitchers in the pen.
c) The sheer number of times it has happened already, with the Phillies (I think) never actually scoring to set up a save chance.
d) General struggle of the team and therefore more focus on Manuel.
For what it's worth, Paplebon has been terrible in non-save situations this year. 6.8-something ERA, vs. 0.00 in save situations.
Obviously a small sample. Papelbon, over his career, actually has a similar split as Mariano Rivera in save and non-save opportunities. Rivera's OPS-against is .043 higher in non-save situations, compared to .028 for Papelbon.
i understand about the price tag
and i have sat silently screaming at astros managers for not bring in the closer in a tie game bottom of the 9th on the road ESPECIALLY to face the best opposition hitters
i personally think it's beyond idiotic to refuse to use your best pitcher when he's needed the most, but the managers AND the pitchers seem to want it that way
but you know
besides the media, it's very possible that papelbon HIMSELF doesn't want to be brought in in a tie game on the road and like you said, he's making all that money and you've seen that what highly paid guys want guys get
I disagree. Bochy does this fairly regularly and has never gotten heat for it that I can remember. I think if Girardi did this and explained why he did it, everyone can understand it.
He was used "properly" on June 1 and he didn't have any issue with it.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201206010.shtml
If you bring in Rivera and your team scores the following half inning, you may be able to pitch Rivera for one more inning and not have to SEE Hawkins, and you win the game...
But that didn't happen. In the game RB mentioned, the one where he said the strategy backfired, the Yankees burned two innings worth of Rivera AND they still lost. By using Mo, in this specific game, they got the worst of both worlds. I agree that bringing in your best reliever into a tie game is the right percentage play (home or away), but sometimes, like here, you can make the right play and still get the wrong result. Losing in the 10th with Hawkins and not using Rivera is preferable to losing in the 12th with Hawkins and not having Mo available for the next night's game.
I really want Papelbon to pipe up and say publicly that he'd be willing to pitch in any situation. Come on, man.
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