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Sunday, June 10, 2012

Crashburn Alley: Not Again!

I first met Charlie Manuel not long after the Phillies and I split up…

Tie game on the road, use any reliever but the guy earning $50 million, the most ever for a relief pitcher. That’s been the M.O. of Phillies manager Charlie Manuel all season and the wayward strategy bit his team again yesterday when the Phillies lost 6-4 to the Baltimore Orioles. Vance Worley went six innings, followed by Jake Diekman and Antonio Bastardo with one inning each. With the game tied 4-4 going into the bottom of the ninth, Manuel turned to struggling right-hander Chad Qualls for two innings, followed by last night’s call-up B.J. Rosenberg, making his Major League debut. The game ended in Rosenberg’s second inning of work when Adam Jones hit a walk-off two-run home run. Three of the five at-bats involving Rosenberg had a leverage index above the 2.00 threshold.

It marked at least the sixth time this season that Manuel has opted not to use Papelbon in a tie game on the road and the Phillies went on to lose.

...In all of the above six games, there were clear and obvious opportunities to use Papelbon that simply went unnoticed. Papelbon, recently signed to a four-year, $50 million contract and easily the Phillies’ best reliever, sat in the bullpen without so much as getting up to stretch because the Phillies’ manager is too entrenched in baseball orthodoxy to put his team in a better position to go home with a victory.

Repoz Posted: June 10, 2012 at 08:42 AM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, sabermetrics

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   1. I Am Not a Number Posted: June 10, 2012 at 10:19 AM (#4152871)
This has been going on with the Blue Jays as well. Casey Janssen is the interim closer, and doing very well at it, but doesn't see the 9th inning in tie games on the road. Cordero took the loss in back to back road games with Janssen looking on.
   2. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: June 10, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4152876)
This happens with almost every team. Virtually no manager brings in his closer in non-save situations on the road. Funnily enough, the one time I can remember Joe Girardi doing it, he got burned. He brought Rivera into a tied game in Baltimore and he threw two scoreless innings. After the second scoreless inning, the Yankees took the lead so LaTroy Hawkins had to come in to close. And of course, Hawkins blew the lead and the game.
   3. bobm Posted: June 10, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4152999)
Using B-R Play Index, I looked up 2011 "Plate Appearances Allowed in 2011, during 9th Inning, Away Games and score tied." I then filtered the results for a pitcher's first PA of the game, with no outs and no runners on base.

 TM   G   LI*
CIN  16  2.2 

WSN  15  2.2 

OAK  13  2.2 

SEA  12  2.3 
SFG  12  2.2 
ATL  12  2.2 

STL  11  2.2 
CHW  11  2.3  
KCR  11  2.3  

SDP  10  2.2 
LAD  10  2.2 

CLE   9  2.3 
FLA   9  2.2 
LAA   9  2.3 

DET   8  2.3 
TEX   8  2.3 
MIN   8  2.3 
HOU   8  2.2 
PHI   8  2.2 

MIL   7  2.2 
PIT   7  2.2 

BAL   6  2.3 
ARI   6  2.2 
CHC   6  2.2 
BOS   6  2.3 
COL   6  2.2 

NYY   5  2.2 
TOR   5  2.2 
TBR   5  2.3 

NYM   4  2.2 
Sum 263  2.2


*Leverage Index for first PA

   4. bobm Posted: June 10, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4153067)
It marked at least the sixth time this season that Manuel has opted not to use Papelbon in a tie game on the road and the Phillies went on to lose.


Two observations:

1) In 2011 the Phillies had 8 such chances overall. This kind of thing seems quite variable from year to year.

2) In 2011, given the total number of chances per team, this issue of reliever usage may have been meaningful to only a few teams anyway (as compared to say the reluctance to use the "closer" in the 8th inning).

*San Francisco was 6-6, and 10 of those games went into extra innings. Wilson was 0-1, with 5 saves and 6 non-appearances.

*Atlanta was 6-6, and 9 of those games went into extra innings. Kimbrel was 0-1, with 4 saves and 1 other GF with a ND.

*Boston was 3-3, and all of those games went into extra innings. Papelbon was 0-0, with 2 saves and 3 no-decisions in 3 such games Boston played in September: 1.0 IP on 9/5; 2.0 IP on 9/10; and 2.1 IP on 9/25.

Of the three teams' managers, Francona relied the most on his "closer" in these types of situations, but with similar results.

Even though a win in April counts as much as a win in September, it is interesting to note that the Braves were 6.5 games ahead of the Cardinals at the end of play on 9/7, which was the date of the last such game the Braves played.
   5. BDC Posted: June 10, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4153079)
Joe Girardi doing it, he got burned. He brought Rivera into a tied game in Baltimore and he threw two scoreless innings. After the second scoreless inning, the Yankees took the lead so LaTroy Hawkins had to come in to close. And of course, Hawkins blew the lead and the game

Is that getting burned, though? If you bring in Hawkins instead of Rivera, and he pitches the same way, you lose outright. I guess it's a case for Leo Durocher's maxim "never save a pitcher for tomorrow, tomorrow it may rain." Closers tend to get saved till tomorrow, whatever the chance of rain.
   6. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: June 10, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4153081)
I guess it's a case for Leo Durocher's maxim "never save a pitcher for tomorrow, tomorrow it may rain."


But it takes a freaking hurricane to postpone an MLB game these days, so Leo's #### don't work no more.
   7. base ball chick Posted: June 10, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4153092)
i hardly ever see managers who don't rigidly play by the book all the time and the rule that hardly ever gets broke is the one about not using your closer in a tie game on the road but putting in you shtty relievers first even if you facing the heart of the lineup

once something becomes The Rule and the media is gonna kill you if you break it and it DOESN'T work, well, managers go by doing what everyone else does

found an interesting article on how people don't/won't act outside that infamous Box

and it's not maddie
   8. Tripon Posted: June 10, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4153114)
This happens with almost every team. Virtually no manager brings in his closer in non-save situations on the road. Funnily enough, the one time I can remember Joe Girardi doing it, he got burned. He brought Rivera into a tied game in Baltimore and he threw two scoreless innings. After the second scoreless inning, the Yankees took the lead so LaTroy Hawkins had to come in to close. And of course, Hawkins blew the lead and the game.


Is that really getting burned though? You use your best players first so you can extend the game. The goal of bringing in Rivera before a 'save' opp was met.
   9. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: June 10, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4153135)
Is that getting burned, though? If you bring in Hawkins instead of Rivera, and he pitches the same way, you lose outright. I guess it's a case for Leo Durocher's maxim "never save a pitcher for tomorrow, tomorrow it may rain." Closers tend to get saved till tomorrow, whatever the chance of rain.


In a sense, it is. If you bring in Hawkins instead of Rivera and he coughs it up in the 10th, the result is the same but you still (presumably) have Rivera available to throw tomorrow's game. Now, you've lost this one and your best guy may not be able to close out the next game.

Not that I'm supporting the idea of keeping your closer out of a tied game, just noting that the scenario RB presented is one of the worst results you can get.
   10. TVerik Posted: June 10, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4153168)
Is that getting burned, though? If you bring in Hawkins instead of Rivera, and he pitches the same way, you lose outright.


Also, particularly in NYC and Philly, managers are judged on results on a minute-to-minute basis. Rightly or wrongly, they manage so as not to have to answer tough questions from the press/ownership.

In the example above, if Girardi brings in Hawkins in "regulation", who blows it, the main story is "Hawkins costs the Yankees a game!" Doing it the way he did it, the main story was "Girardi doesn't know how to manage!"
   11. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 10, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4153189)
Also, particularly in NYC and Philly, managers are judged on results on a minute-to-minute basis. Rightly or wrongly, they manage so as not to have to answer tough questions from the press/ownership.

In the example above, if Girardi brings in Hawkins in "regulation", who blows it, the main story is "Hawkins costs the Yankees a game!" Doing it the way he did it, the main story was "Girardi doesn't know how to manage!"


How much mainstream grief is Manuel getting for how he's using Papelbon this year? Obviously, the tenor of the linked article is "Manuel doesn't know how to manage!"
   12. TVerik Posted: June 10, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4153221)
It's a blogger. Is it likely that Manuel has a computer at home?

What did the local papers say?
   13. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 10, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4153231)
It's a blogger.


Right. Hence, my question. Has the criticism of Manuel's failure to use Papelbon worked its way into the mainstream media?
   14. Dan Posted: June 10, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4153303)
Phillies lost again in extras without using Papelbon today.
   15. Crashburn Alley Posted: June 10, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4153313)
Hence, my question. Has the criticism of Manuel's failure to use Papelbon worked its way into the mainstream media?


Yes, mostly because I've been shrieking like a banshee about it.

https://twitter.com/magelb/status/211922207633440769

https://twitter.com/DavidHaleTNJ/status/211922319348736002

https://twitter.com/HighCheese/status/211917465326854144
   16. Dale Sams Posted: June 10, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4153330)
It also has a lot to do with how much Papelbon is being paid, and Manuel's flat-out declarations.

In extra-innings, Tito would eventually bring in Paps before going to a white-flag pitcher....usually. In 2008, the opening game in TB, Tito let white-flag* Timlin throw before Paps.

*To be fair, it may have not been apparent yet that was who Timlin was going to be.
   17. base ball chick Posted: June 10, 2012 at 05:57 PM (#4153331)
CA

like what manager is putting his closer into a tie game in the 9th on the road? in JUNE??? dude, it's just not done. i don't know what you think complaining about it is gonna do except get the pitchers/bullpen/players/mainstream media all pi$$ed off

managers don't even like to put their closer into the game in the 8th with the game on the line and the toughest hitter coming up.

haven't you heard all the 999 Kazillion interviews from the PITCHERS saying They Want To Know Their Role And When They're Coming In?
   18. DKDC Posted: June 10, 2012 at 06:17 PM (#4153341)
Why would we want to spoil the fond memory of the last pitch Papelbon threw in a tie game in Camden Yards (September 28, 2011)?

Of course that game wasn't tied when Papelbon was brought in the game.
   19. Padraic Posted: June 10, 2012 at 06:47 PM (#4153359)
This has been going on forever with Manuel - a few years ago he almost burned out Madson's arm against the Mets while Tom Gordon sat in the pen.

I think what's different about this situation is:

a) Paplebon's pricetag.

b) The near complete absence of other good pitchers in the pen.

c) The sheer number of times it has happened already, with the Phillies (I think) never actually scoring to set up a save chance.

d) General struggle of the team and therefore more focus on Manuel.

For what it's worth, Paplebon has been terrible in non-save situations this year. 6.8-something ERA, vs. 0.00 in save situations.
   20. Crashburn Alley Posted: June 10, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4153367)
@ 19

For what it's worth, Paplebon has been terrible in non-save situations this year. 6.8-something ERA, vs. 0.00 in save situations.


Obviously a small sample. Papelbon, over his career, actually has a similar split as Mariano Rivera in save and non-save opportunities. Rivera's OPS-against is .043 higher in non-save situations, compared to .028 for Papelbon.
   21. base ball chick Posted: June 10, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4153376)
padraic

i understand about the price tag
and i have sat silently screaming at astros managers for not bring in the closer in a tie game bottom of the 9th on the road ESPECIALLY to face the best opposition hitters

i personally think it's beyond idiotic to refuse to use your best pitcher when he's needed the most, but the managers AND the pitchers seem to want it that way

but you know
besides the media, it's very possible that papelbon HIMSELF doesn't want to be brought in in a tie game on the road and like you said, he's making all that money and you've seen that what highly paid guys want guys get
   22. tshipman Posted: June 10, 2012 at 07:38 PM (#4153378)
In the example above, if Girardi brings in Hawkins in "regulation", who blows it, the main story is "Hawkins costs the Yankees a game!" Doing it the way he did it, the main story was "Girardi doesn't know how to manage!"


I disagree. Bochy does this fairly regularly and has never gotten heat for it that I can remember. I think if Girardi did this and explained why he did it, everyone can understand it.
   23. Crashburn Alley Posted: June 10, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4153382)
besides the media, it's very possible that papelbon HIMSELF doesn't want to be brought in in a tie game on the road and like you said, he's making all that money and you've seen that what highly paid guys want guys get


He was used "properly" on June 1 and he didn't have any issue with it.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201206010.shtml
   24. KJOK Posted: June 10, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4153428)
In a sense, it is. If you bring in Hawkins instead of Rivera and he coughs it up in the 10th, the result is the same but you still (presumably) have Rivera available to throw tomorrow's game. Now, you've lost this one and your best guy may not be able to close out the next game.


If you bring in Rivera and your team scores the following half inning, you may be able to pitch Rivera for one more inning and not have to SEE Hawkins, and you win the game...

   25. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: June 11, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4153458)
If you bring in Rivera and your team scores the following half inning, you may be able to pitch Rivera for one more inning and not have to SEE Hawkins, and you win the game...


But that didn't happen. In the game RB mentioned, the one where he said the strategy backfired, the Yankees burned two innings worth of Rivera AND they still lost. By using Mo, in this specific game, they got the worst of both worlds. I agree that bringing in your best reliever into a tie game is the right percentage play (home or away), but sometimes, like here, you can make the right play and still get the wrong result. Losing in the 10th with Hawkins and not using Rivera is preferable to losing in the 12th with Hawkins and not having Mo available for the next night's game.

   26. baudib Posted: June 16, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4158737)
Manuel's refusal to use Papelbon in extra innings on the road -- and the Phillies' 100% loss rate in such situations -- is becoming one of the epic storylines of this season.
   27. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: June 16, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4158763)
AAAAARRGGHGHGHH that is true.

I really want Papelbon to pipe up and say publicly that he'd be willing to pitch in any situation. Come on, man.

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