User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets. |
Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats
|
AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets. |
Page rendered in 0.6609 seconds
55 querie(s) executed

Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Except none of you have any knowledge about the risk of Harden being injured.
Uh, pretty much everyone here acknowledges that he's a substantial injury risk.
Losing $500 isn't going to ruin most people. It's still going to hurt when you want it and its not there, though.
Sure, but the Cubs do (yeah, yeah, insert Mark Prior joke here). Jim Hendry wouldn't have made this trade if he didn't think Harden had a good chance of being healthy for the rest of this season. If Hendry's medical staff had full access to Harden's complete medical history and gave him a physical, it's not at all clear to me that Beane has some big information advantage here.
And as far as "locking in his returns", dude, these are baseball players, nobody's performance is guaranteed - 3 of the 4 guys that the A's just acquired have seen performace drops this season. Maybe Hendry's the one with the information advantage.
Given his history - including the reports of a dead arm right now - it's significant. Nobody knows for certain, of course - what does that have to do with the notion that the Cubs can take a Harden injury without it seriously hurting them compared to before this trade, and IF he stays healthy the Cubs are much better off?
This is ridiculous in the extreme. NOBODY has a substantial ability to judge risk of injury.
Beane: (whispering) His dead-arm phase is cause for greater concern.
Hendry: That doesn't stop me, I've had personnel following Harden for some time.
The game is afoot!
Either that, or Murton makes Frank Thomas obsolete. There's still time for the Tigers to put Sheffield on the DL and have a Bonds-Thomas platoon.
(sob)
I think the chances of Beane knowing about some 'secret injury' and simply not revealing it are slim to none. He knows what we all know - Harden gets hurts a lot. Given that he and Hendry seem to work well together and have dealt with each other quite a bit over the years, I highly doubt he's knowingly screwing Hendry. Does Beane have some secret formula that predicts the inevitability of a Harden injury? Doubtful -- unless simple logic and a scan of Harden's DL history counts as a "secret formula".
What's more - the Cubs don't really need to count on Harden. If he makes a dozen starts - or hell, 10 starts - and is healthy for the postseason, that's a flat-out win for the Cubs. Only Gallagher had any sort of future with the Cubs, and for a team that can afford to overpay for mid-rotation starters, he was used for exactly what he should be used for (absent a decimated rotation) - a trading chit.
Greg Pope summed it up quite nicely.... The Brewers went out and got themselves a Zambrano - the Cubs already have one, while the Cubs went out and got themselves a Ben Sheets.
Who knows... Perhaps the division will come down to whose "Ben Sheets" stays healthy. A game 7 NLCS matchup of Sheets v. Harden would be pretty cool.
I don't think he would be risking his reputation on this dubious collection of prizes.
(sob)
Or even worse: Bedard-Rasmus.
Whoa, even Sheets is Mr. Durable compared to Harden. Harden's in his own category.
I like what someone upthread said -- he's Mark Prior. We'll just have to wait and see which one, and for how long.
And if the 'dead arm' thing is temporary.
Harden's agent might not be fond of the idea...
Now that is a great idea.
I think just about everyone is able to identify players that get injured a lot and others that don't. Injuries are not all luck, quite the contrary.
Cart, turnaround, and meet horse.
We all got the Mabry/Giambi trade right, so we must have this one right too, huh?
The coming DL stint could be more of a plus, than minus. If Harden can pull it together for 1-2 key starts.
Harden is a man ahead of his time, in 100 years, when baseball teams are using 28 man rotations, he is a #1 guy.
Noted. I quoted that part because of the note about the reason for Gaudin's inclusion, from an A's source.
FWIW, the velocity issue has been brought recently up his Harden's own [now ex-]manager publicly, besides the usual anonymous scouts and front office sources that populate these types of stories, so it was out there. Maybe FanGraphs is correct, and these people are wrong (and I do mean that seriously and not sarcastically). I don't know.
Velocity measurement does tend to vary. /shrug
He's been lonely since Dick Pole got axed.
He has still been effective and will continue to be so as long as he's out there even if it's at 90% of what he's capable of.
Yes, this is the same thing I'm assuming. And with no more or less information to guide my guess than he does.
Just saying. Stark used a lot of column space to tell us all absolutely nothing we didn't already know.
The A's dump about $7M (pro rate) in salary, acquire a promising/prospective major league pitcher; acquire the best outfielder they've had since Jermaine Dye/Nick Swisher, and receive a couple throw ins who've had some success in the minor leagues.
I think the A's made out fairly well. The main problem here is:
1. Gallagher is being overlooked as a legitimate pitching prospect with great projectability.
2. Murton's half season of PAs (this year) is overshadowing a career MLB line: .300/.360/.450 (in 900 PAs).. not to mention he's a good defender with a UZR/150 of +14 @ LF
3. Gaudin is being overrated: As a starter he put up a paltry 4.53 xFIP last season, indicating he relies more on a ballpark that highly suppresses BABIP, and a defense that usually is amongst the league leaders in defensive efficiency.
4. Harden's value is marginal at best due to his inability to take the mound every 5th day. "Staying healthy" isn't luck, it's a skill. A skill Harden doesn't posses.
I think the Cubs have the budget to absorb a lot of the risk associated with paying Harden millions while he rides the bench 75% of the season (if they decide to pick up his $7M option next season) Gaudin has no where near the minor league track record Gallagher has, and will cost $2.0M + over the life os his arb. eligibility, while Gallagher is under A's control for the next 6 seasons (after this one) making the league minimum 3 of those 6 years.
He says the A's targeted Gallagher from the get-go as the centerpiece of any Harden deal, but the Cubs said no, until the inclusion of Gaudin got the deal done.
Still no match for the '05 Moose-Unit-Wang trifecta. (Avert your eyes from Aaron Small.)
ESPN:
Same thing from the Cubs perspective. Harden's great, but he's always hurt. Gaudin's useful, but he's not great. I think it's a low risk, high reward trade for both teams. Harden's probably the 2nd best SP that was available. This trade doesn't change the Cubs' postseason chances in any way, but could help them if they get to the postseason.
SSR had a great post about previous Cubs/A's trades. That one didn't include the Bellhorn deal. The Cubs have held their own against Beane when it comes to trades.
---
Good to see most of the blind Beane worhsip is gone, but there's quite a few head-scratching posts in this thread. Such as
I know - are the phone lines down in Philly right now?
I've always been a big Matt Murton supporter, but the quoted statement's kind of pathetic.
I've been hanging out here for a couple of years now and I don't recall much blind Beane worship. I think this has become one of those truthy things like "Republicans are good with the economy" that people sometimes still say but no one believes anymore. I can't remember the last time Beane made a trade I didn't have some reservations about. Hell, I'm still annoyed at the Octavio Dotel fiasco.
Anyway, I'm going to let the good news of the Michel Inoa signing wash over my skepticism of this trade. That and the A's are still only 5 games back and Duke is having a dream season. There's some good stuff going on.
I've always been a big Matt Murton supporter, but the quoted statement's kind of pathetic.
Carlos Gonzales is much, much better than Matt Murton. Ryan Sweeney may be better than Matt Murton. I'm not even sure Matt Murton is as good as Matt Murton anymore.
And keep singing "Sunshine On My Shoulders" over and over again. Michelle Inoa ain't got nothing on a little John Denver.
Replace Anderson with Cahill and you might not be joking. That kid is unreal.
I can't tell if you're trying to be mean here or not.
That's gotta hurt.
I have to cop to not knowing who he was until 10 minutes ago. Wow. I'm surprised he's not being talked up more with that kind of line in high A as a 20-year-old.
AROM, if he can have the career Anderson would have had without the arthritis or whatever it was that slowed him down, I'll be happy. That's a damn good player.
Maybe Burnett waves no trade clause cause he likes LA. You guys get compensation picks and a possibly good starter in Lind. We get Kemp and DH LaRoche as backup for Rolen when he leaves or gets injured. Hu does play shortstop but his stock is way down this year. Dodgers also get back some offense possibly in Lind and Ecks.
Even if he improves in left, he doesn't have the bat to carry a corner, so it'd be a waste of time. Patterson either makes it as an everyday 2B, or he's a utility player.
If Colletti makes that trade, he's retarded. (Cue 867 Dodger fans saying "Duh...")
Oh--you mean LaRoche OR Hu. Still retarded.
Late again, and I understand your snark, but almost regardless of who the GM is, the wrong reaction to a trade like this is OMG HOW COULD THE A'S DO THAT?!? This iseems like a pretty reasonable trade to me. You're not getting a Justin Upton (or even a Matt LaPorta) for a guy who has thrown 150 innings in three years. The Cubs filled a need, got a nice throw in in Gaudin, and Billy Beane continues towards his goal of having a major league roster with 25 slightly above average players on it.
I know - are the phone lines down in Philly right now?
Murton=Victorino
Donaldson=Marson
Gallagher=Carrasco
Patterson=Donald or Cardenas
Hell, I'd probably do that, and I'd say it's a better return for the A's.
Gaudin is being overrated: As a starter he put up a paltry 4.53 xFIP last season, indicating he relies more on a ballpark that highly suppresses BABIP, and a defense that usually is amongst the league leaders in defensive efficiency.
Knock a quarter or fifth of a run off for leaving the AL ... that doesn't look overrated to me. Don't know if his offseason surgery is affecting him negatively, though his K/BB is much better than previous years. Hell, if Harden's arm falls off tomorrow, Gaudin would still be the second-best starter in the Phils' rotation right now.
I can bash Jason Marquis with the best of them, but there's just no getting around the fact that he had an ERA+ of 101 last season - and at 94, is in the same zip code this season.
I see no reason not to trade Marquis - especially now that big Z seems fine and the Cubs now have mediocre SPs to burn - but as much as I hate to say it, that 3/21 contract hasn't been anywhere near the millstone I thought it would be.
I'd listen to offers, but I'm in no hurry to move Marquis. I would expect any team doing the acquiring to take on the full remainder of his contract and actually offer something of moderate value in return... a B prospect, a lefty reliever, etc.
I know the standard BBTF response would be that this would be overpaying for Jason Marquis -- but the Cubs have now gotten roughly 300 innings of ERA+ ~100 ball from Marquis. All in all, I've stopped being a Marquis hater.
Marquis has been better than I expected too (which gives you an idea of what my expectations were), but he's sort of redundant at this point, at best. I suppose my ideal scenario is trading him for a lefty reliever, which means the Cubs probably stay on the hook for his contract, but that'd be a better use of resources. I don't know that the Yankees have that to trade. (Too bad Littlefield's not running things in Pittsburgh anymore--if he'd take on a washed up, expensive Matt Morris, surely he'd take an innings-eating stud like Marquis for Damaso Marte...)
Then again, he IS Lou's favorite pinch runner...
I dunno; I think he's OK in left. He makes the occasional gaffe, but he covers more ground than you'd think by looking at him. He doesn't throw very well, so he's ill-suited to right. Basically, he's useful to the right team (which wasn't the Cubs), but he's pretty limited. I think it's safe to say I overrated him 2 years ago.
He certainly is - and especially now with Gaudin, the Cubs probably can do without the rotation depth. Still- I'm just not in a mood to give him away. I guess the only problem is that, IIRC, Marquis has a history of being a clubhouse problem when he's not used as he expects to be.
Before I'd actively look to trade Marquis, I'd like to see Rich Hill right himself. Granted, it was done in AZL, but he finally showed some command in his last outing. If he can put together a solid July and make himself nominally available to fill in on the big club during Aug/Sept where necessary, I'd feel much better about shipping Marquis out of town. I'm not counting on Hill to pitch another inning in the big leagues this season - and Lou certainly does seem to hold grudges - but I like being in a situation where putting one of the big four on the shelf for a week or two... skipping a start here and there, etc - isn't any real sort of problem.
1. Buster Olney calling Chad Gaudin "veteran swingman". Chad Gaudin is 25. I thought that was when one's car insurance rates went down, not when one received the mantle of Veteran Goodness.
2. Someone suggested that Gaudin doesn't have the minor league track record of Sean Gallagher. Not sure what that was based on (and not sure how I'm going to format this):
Age Gaudin ERA Gallagher ERA
18 x 3.09
19 2.27 (A) 2.71/1.80 (A/A+)
20 2.14/0.47 (A+/AA) 2.31/2.72 (A+/AA)
21 4.69 (AAA) 3.39/2.66 (AA/AAA)
22 3.10 (AAA) 3.35 (AAA)
23 0.37 (AAA) x
Age Gaudin WHIP Gallagher WHIP
18 x 1.40
19 1.20 1.11/1.20
20 1.08/0.58 1.23/1.50
21 1.35 1.28/1.13
22 1.16 1.03
23 0.92 x
I don't see an enormous difference. What's more, Gaudin was first effective at the major league level at age 20 (granted, he scuffled at 21 and 22). I don't see what makes their track records significantly different.
His arm is the key - I think you're spot on - he doesn't have the arm to play RF. This limits him to LF.
Murton has roughly 1000 major league at-bats, and a 294/362/448 line. That's plenty fine if your team is getting plus offense out of premium defensive positions and you're looking to save money elsewhere on the diamond.
I think too many people are projecting their "if only Matt Stairs...." fantasies onto Murton - and the problem is, Murton doesn't really have Stairs pop, and at 26, isn't likely to develop it.
Matt Murton is valuable so long as he is cheap. The minute he becomes a 7 figure earner -- his positional limitations cause his value to drop through the floor.
Murton hits the ball hard- he's just got no loft.
You have no basis for this whatsoever. Nothing in their usage of pitchers suggests anything of the sort.
This is the freaking Cubs we're talking about. They should give away the entire farm system to go for it this season. All they have to do is win one World Series and they're set for the next century.
I'm interested in seeing where Burnett winds up. Some don't think it'll take much to get him, so I wonder if St. Louis makes a run at him. It'd be funny to see Hendry go flip Cedeno for Burnett, but at this point, that would mean (assuming everyone stays healthy and the Cubs make the playoffs) either Lily or Dempster would pitch out of the pen in October. Not likely.
ZR-based stats have Murton down as average to good. He does not have a strong arm but he is accurate and he at least usually hits the cutoff man.
That said, he's very defensively limited. Even if he hits to his career average so far and plays somewhat above average defense at a corner OF position, he's not a big plus. I wonder if the A's are going to consider trying him out at 1B. If they can add any defensive versatility at all to his repertoire, it greatly increases his value. If you use him primarily as a lefty-masher and can play him at multiple positions without a big defensive cost, you've got yourself a useful piece of the puzzle. The Cubs never managed to do this optimally.
And of course, Stairs played on the busy end of the platoon.
Those thinking Matt Murton is an average or above average defender have never seen him play. He is below average in right and barely tolerable in left.
I dunno. Coming out of college he could run fine and fake CF. He still couldn't throw at all of course but he looked like a guy that could be a major league average or better LF defender.
Of course, that was some time ago
What I love about following his uber-breakout is that, if he had turned down the draft, he might be pitching against Ivy League hitters. Before his sr. year of HS he was a strong student who was a merely good baseball player so he committed to Dartmouth since he wasn't a hot prospect at the time. Then, of course he broke out, got drafted and is now mowing down pro hitters.
What if he had turned the A's down and gone to Dartmouth, where he'd be just a sophomore?
Point being, if he can strike out 1 guy an inning against AA batters, how many crappy Ivy League hitters could he strike out per inning? Four? : )
As a Phils fan, if Bedard has a clean bill of health, I'd make a Bedard for Carrasco trade in a heartbeat. The Phils' time is now, and that rotation isn't going to get it done without another front-of-the-rotation starter. Bedard's cheap this year ($7M) and up for arbitration next year - even if he gets $12M or so, that's a hell of a lot cheaper than an equivalent free-agent starter (remember Carlos Silva?).
I have never heard that rule mentioned with injured pitchers. I thought it was for young pitchers building up their arms - 120 one year, then 150, then 180, etc.
Harden threw 153 innings in 2002, 176 in 2003, and 189 in 2004. Start applying that rule to him all over again and it will be 2013 before you can get a full season out of him. There's no more potential in Harden, either he can pitch or he can't. You might as well get what innings you can out of him before his contract is up or his arm runs out.
Link
Shredder's #278 was excellent. That's the Roger Clemens approach to roster construction when he was in his older, more fragile years.
Which cow college did you go to? Cornell? :-)
In 2007, major-league LFers hit .277/.347/.453 and major-league RFers hit .281/.351/.453; just for good measure, DHs hit .268/.354/.447. So, Murton pretty much hits like an average corner-outfielder/DH.
Bovine University?
That career line is in a hitter's park in the weaker league.
And of course, includes at least some platooning.
Also, the stats for all left fielders and all right fielders include those of backups, and of players who got called up as injury replacements and washed out. I'd suspect if you just took the lines from players who played the largest amount at those positions for every team, the average would be noticeably higher. I like Murton, I hope he finds a good situation and lives up to the potential people thought he had - but his line if adjusted properly is probably closer to a weak starter than an average one.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main