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Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Cubs get Rich Harden

CHICAGO (AP)—The Chicago Cubs have acquired pitcher Rich Harden from the Athletics in a mutiplayer trade.

This just in.

Foster Posted: July 08, 2008 at 10:40 PM | 289 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics, cubs

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   201. Шĥy Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:48 AM (#2850127)
Some of us have posted that the Cubs are in a position where the risk of Harden being injured is fairly small to their chances (they're a good team without him, even after this trade), while if he is healthy it helps them considerably.

Except none of you have any knowledge about the risk of Harden being injured.
   202. retro-shiite Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:49 AM (#2850130)
Except none of you have any knowledge about the risk of Harden being injured.

Uh, pretty much everyone here acknowledges that he's a substantial injury risk.
   203. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:51 AM (#2850132)
How does this trade compare to the Freddy Garcia trade ;P
   204. Шĥy Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:52 AM (#2850133)
Yes, Rich Harden has an extensive history of injury problems, but this hardly plunking $500 on 17, and considering the Cubs gave up what are essentially two spare parts, a college catcher with suspect defense that isn't hitting a lick in single A, and yes -- a nice mid-rotation starter who's got plenty of value for a small market team until he hits arbitration -- it's pocket change for the Cubs.

Losing $500 isn't going to ruin most people. It's still going to hurt when you want it and its not there, though.
   205. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:53 AM (#2850139)
Except none of you have any knowledge about the risk of Harden being injured.


Sure, but the Cubs do (yeah, yeah, insert Mark Prior joke here). Jim Hendry wouldn't have made this trade if he didn't think Harden had a good chance of being healthy for the rest of this season. If Hendry's medical staff had full access to Harden's complete medical history and gave him a physical, it's not at all clear to me that Beane has some big information advantage here.

And as far as "locking in his returns", dude, these are baseball players, nobody's performance is guaranteed - 3 of the 4 guys that the A's just acquired have seen performace drops this season. Maybe Hendry's the one with the information advantage.
   206. akrasian Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:54 AM (#2850143)
Except none of you have any knowledge about the risk of Harden being injured.

Given his history - including the reports of a dead arm right now - it's significant. Nobody knows for certain, of course - what does that have to do with the notion that the Cubs can take a Harden injury without it seriously hurting them compared to before this trade, and IF he stays healthy the Cubs are much better off?
   207. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:57 AM (#2850152)
Except none of you have any knowledge about the risk of Harden being injured.

This is ridiculous in the extreme. NOBODY has a substantial ability to judge risk of injury.
   208. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:02 AM (#2850158)
The latest MLB.com story from the A's side:
Although the A's have been limiting Harden to 100 pitches since his return, his velocity was down in each of his past two starts, and there were whispers that what Harden shrugged off as a something of a "dead-arm" phase was cause for greater concern.

That didn't stop the Cubs, who had personnel following Harden for some time, fueling the trade rumors.
   209. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:05 AM (#2850161)
Hendry: We want Harden.
Beane: (whispering) His dead-arm phase is cause for greater concern.
Hendry: That doesn't stop me, I've had personnel following Harden for some time.

The game is afoot!
   210. SteveM. Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:06 AM (#2850162)
The A's think so much of Murton that they are sending him to Triple A.
   211. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:07 AM (#2850165)
Oh, SteveM, there's no rush. You know it'll take a while to sort through all the suitors busting down Beane's door asking about Emil Brown.

Either that, or Murton makes Frank Thomas obsolete. There's still time for the Tigers to put Sheffield on the DL and have a Bonds-Thomas platoon.
   212. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:09 AM (#2850166)
I'm trying to laugh as much as possible before the aforementioned Bedard-Carrasco trade is announced in a couple weeks.

(sob)
   213. zonk Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:11 AM (#2850167)
A few other points...

I think the chances of Beane knowing about some 'secret injury' and simply not revealing it are slim to none. He knows what we all know - Harden gets hurts a lot. Given that he and Hendry seem to work well together and have dealt with each other quite a bit over the years, I highly doubt he's knowingly screwing Hendry. Does Beane have some secret formula that predicts the inevitability of a Harden injury? Doubtful -- unless simple logic and a scan of Harden's DL history counts as a "secret formula".

What's more - the Cubs don't really need to count on Harden. If he makes a dozen starts - or hell, 10 starts - and is healthy for the postseason, that's a flat-out win for the Cubs. Only Gallagher had any sort of future with the Cubs, and for a team that can afford to overpay for mid-rotation starters, he was used for exactly what he should be used for (absent a decimated rotation) - a trading chit.

Greg Pope summed it up quite nicely.... The Brewers went out and got themselves a Zambrano - the Cubs already have one, while the Cubs went out and got themselves a Ben Sheets.

Who knows... Perhaps the division will come down to whose "Ben Sheets" stays healthy. A game 7 NLCS matchup of Sheets v. Harden would be pretty cool.
   214. CraigK Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:12 AM (#2850169)
Oh well. Congrats on the division, Cubs.
   215. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:14 AM (#2850170)
I highly doubt he's knowingly screwing Hendry

I don't think he would be risking his reputation on this dubious collection of prizes.
   216. CraigK Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:14 AM (#2850171)
I'm trying to laugh as much as possible before the aforementioned Bedard-Carrasco trade is announced in a couple weeks.

(sob)


Or even worse: Bedard-Rasmus.
   217. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:18 AM (#2850174)
and got themselves a Ben Sheets.


Whoa, even Sheets is Mr. Durable compared to Harden. Harden's in his own category.
   218. Perros Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:19 AM (#2850177)
Who wins this trade depends upon how well Harden can pitch the rest of this season, and to some extent the next.

I like what someone upthread said -- he's Mark Prior. We'll just have to wait and see which one, and for how long.

And if the 'dead arm' thing is temporary.
   219. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:20 AM (#2850178)
Heh. Actually, I wonder if the Cubs wouldn't be wise to just shut Harden down until September, to maximize the possibility he's healthy for the playoffs. It's unlikely his services will be required to get them into the postseason.

Harden's agent might not be fond of the idea...
   220. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:23 AM (#2850179)
Heh. Actually, I wonder if the Cubs wouldn't be wise to just shut Harden down until September, to maximize the possibility he's healthy for the playoffs. It's unlikely his services will be required to get them into the postseason.

Now that is a great idea.
   221. SouthSideRyan Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:38 AM (#2850184)
I mentioned in TO, but Harden's velocity drop isn't showing up in the stats. a .7 mph drop compared to his season velocity? That's just about nothing.
   222. BeanoCook Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:45 AM (#2850189)
This is ridiculous in the extreme. NOBODY has a substantial ability to judge risk of injury.


I think just about everyone is able to identify players that get injured a lot and others that don't. Injuries are not all luck, quite the contrary.
   223. BeanoCook Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:47 AM (#2850190)
It's unlikely his services will be required to get them into the postseason.


Cart, turnaround, and meet horse.
   224. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:53 AM (#2850193)
This IS the Cubs we're talking about...
   225. Dan Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:55 AM (#2850194)
From what I've seen Harden has been frequently throwing with about 90% effort this season, and then only dialing it up when needed. His last start, most of his FBs were around 92 MPH, then out of nowhere he decided to wing one in there at 97. I assume it's his solution to trying to stay healthy. And he's been able to do it while being effective.
   226. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:01 AM (#2850197)
Uh, haven't read the first 200+ posts here, but Harden has thrown about 150 innings since 2005. Sure, maybe he stays healthy for awhile, who knows, but he has about as lousy of a track record in doing so as you can have. But, no, I'm sure the posters of Baseball Think Factory have a far better grasp on what Rich Harden is worth in trade than his general manager.

We all got the Mabry/Giambi trade right, so we must have this one right too, huh?
   227. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:03 AM (#2850198)
Maybe Joe C isn't is right. There is far too little respect for Billy Beane on this site.
   228. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:22 AM (#2850203)
ESPN: Stark - Cubs decided risk worth the possible reward
It was the first time Harden had made that many starts in succession since 2005. And it's that injury history that already is making those ever-edgy North Siders nervous, after way too many injury-rehab updates on their previous saviors, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, the past few years.

In fact, one baseball man called Oakland's decision to trade Harden now -- while he's pitching great and the A's are still in a race -- a "serious red flag." Meanwhile, in a potentially related development, a scout we surveyed reported that Harden's velocity hasn't been quite the same in his most recent couple of starts, since his eight-inning, 11-strikeout two-hitter against the Phillies on June 26.

But the Cubs have watched every pitch he has thrown for weeks. They saw him hit 96 mph on the gun Sunday with their own eyes. So clearly, they'll take their chances on the odds of getting him out there 14 or 15 times between now and Sept. 28.
...
Asked Tuesday whether the A's got enough for one of the most overpowering pitchers in baseball, one scout chuckled: "For a guy who might break down tomorrow? Yeah."

But the Cubs understood that, too. Understood exactly what they were dealing for in Harden. He might miss a turn or two. Or 10. But at this point in the life of their quasi-tragic franchise, they weren't interested in playing it safe. Not anymore.
   229. BeanoCook Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:36 AM (#2850208)
I think it is almost certain Harden will indeed meet the DL and perhaps very soon. But what that does is allow the Cubs to pretty much sit him out until needed, if needed. Maybe Sept 1st they break glass? Maybe the final series of the year for 1 start in Milwaukee? Maybe in the playoffs?

The coming DL stint could be more of a plus, than minus. If Harden can pull it together for 1-2 key starts.
   230. Willie Mayspedes Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:40 AM (#2850209)
Young pitchers aren't supposed add too many innings (25 or so?) each year and I think Harden is in this category. Maybe the A's were thinking that in order to be conservative with his health he shouldn't pitch too much more this year. If Gaudin was mad about being in the bullpen and Harden wanted to go all year to maximize his free agent dollars then that's too guys who wanted out. Maybe...
   231. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:41 AM (#2850210)
Updated SF Chronicle:
Harden's own health is often a concern, and there was speculation in the wake of the trade that his dip in velocity the past two starts, when his fastball was down 4-5 mph, might have spurred the trade. If Harden were to blow out in his next start or two, the thinking went, the A's would get nothing for him, and he's already been on the DL six times in the past four year. An A's source said that did not factor into Oakland's thinking, but the source did confirm that Gaudin was included to provide insurance for the Cubs in the event that Harden were to break down.
   232. cardsfanboy Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:44 AM (#2850211)
I think that the addition of Gaudin will surprise everyone. I can't imagine adding Gaudin to this deal at all, heck he's better than any of the crap that the Cubs gave up.
   233. SouthSideRyan Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:57 AM (#2850216)
#231, How many times do I have to mention that Harden's fastball was down less than 1 mph?
   234. Big Train Posted: July 09, 2008 at 04:59 AM (#2850217)
I like Gaudin a lot, I think he will end up being more productive for the Cubs.

Harden is a man ahead of his time, in 100 years, when baseball teams are using 28 man rotations, he is a #1 guy.
   235. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:03 AM (#2850222)
How many times do I have to mention that Harden's fastball was down less than 1 mph?

Noted. I quoted that part because of the note about the reason for Gaudin's inclusion, from an A's source.

FWIW, the velocity issue has been brought recently up his Harden's own [now ex-]manager publicly, besides the usual anonymous scouts and front office sources that populate these types of stories, so it was out there. Maybe FanGraphs is correct, and these people are wrong (and I do mean that seriously and not sarcastically). I don't know.

Velocity measurement does tend to vary. /shrug
   236. Weeks T. Olive Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:04 AM (#2850221)
Hey, now Kerry Wood has a companion in the Cubs Boner Reference (is that a double or triple entendre?) club.

He's been lonely since Dick Pole got axed.
   237. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:04 AM (#2850220)
Other than Gallagher, the other 5 guys all match the "buy low, sell high" philosophy pretty well. The question of course is whether the A's really did maximize what they could get for Harden, or whether Beane panicked and pulled the trigger too soon fearing he'd get nothing for him.
   238. Willie Mayspedes Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:11 AM (#2850223)
#233 I only saw the game against the Angels and I noticed he seemed to be throwing softer, plus the announcers noticed and the game report after had comments from Angels players saying they thought he was hurt or something.

He has still been effective and will continue to be so as long as he's out there even if it's at 90% of what he's capable of.
   239. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:17 AM (#2850224)
In fact, one baseball man called Oakland's decision to trade Harden now -- while he's pitching great and the A's are still in a race -- a "serious red flag."


Yes, this is the same thing I'm assuming. And with no more or less information to guide my guess than he does.

Just saying. Stark used a lot of column space to tell us all absolutely nothing we didn't already know.
   240. brockforbroglio Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:30 AM (#2850226)
The A's weren't likely to give Harden more then 100 innings this season (regardless of his health, following the "30ish"-innings over previous season total rule) -- He's only pitched a total of 70 innings from 2006-2007 combined.

The A's dump about $7M (pro rate) in salary, acquire a promising/prospective major league pitcher; acquire the best outfielder they've had since Jermaine Dye/Nick Swisher, and receive a couple throw ins who've had some success in the minor leagues.

I think the A's made out fairly well. The main problem here is:

1. Gallagher is being overlooked as a legitimate pitching prospect with great projectability.

2. Murton's half season of PAs (this year) is overshadowing a career MLB line: .300/.360/.450 (in 900 PAs).. not to mention he's a good defender with a UZR/150 of +14 @ LF

3. Gaudin is being overrated: As a starter he put up a paltry 4.53 xFIP last season, indicating he relies more on a ballpark that highly suppresses BABIP, and a defense that usually is amongst the league leaders in defensive efficiency.

4. Harden's value is marginal at best due to his inability to take the mound every 5th day. "Staying healthy" isn't luck, it's a skill. A skill Harden doesn't posses.

I think the Cubs have the budget to absorb a lot of the risk associated with paying Harden millions while he rides the bench 75% of the season (if they decide to pick up his $7M option next season) Gaudin has no where near the minor league track record Gallagher has, and will cost $2.0M + over the life os his arb. eligibility, while Gallagher is under A's control for the next 6 seasons (after this one) making the league minimum 3 of those 6 years.
   241. Willie Mayspedes Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:39 AM (#2850231)
The A's need to make a Volquez for Hamilton type trade in the near future.
   242. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:48 AM (#2850236)
On the Fox site, there's a phone interview with Robo.

He says the A's targeted Gallagher from the get-go as the centerpiece of any Harden deal, but the Cubs said no, until the inclusion of Gaudin got the deal done.
   243. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 09, 2008 at 05:54 AM (#2850242)
Hey, now Kerry Wood has a companion in the Cubs Boner Reference (is that a double or triple entendre?) club. He's been lonely since Dick Pole got axed.

Still no match for the '05 Moose-Unit-Wang trifecta. (Avert your eyes from Aaron Small.)
   244. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2008 at 06:04 AM (#2850244)
Olney echoes Robo's info:

ESPN:
Cubs general manager Jim Hendry checked in from time to time throughout June with Oakland general manager Billy Beane about the availability of Rich Harden, and their conversations traveled down the same path: Yes, Harden was available, but only at the right price, and that price would include right-handed pitcher Sean Gallagher. And Hendry indicated, repeatedly, that Gallagher wasn't available.

On Sunday evening -- the same night when word broke that the Brewers had worked out a deal for CC Sabathia -- Hendry indicated to Beane for the first time that he would make Gallagher available in a Harden deal, but it would create a problem: If Gallagher was traded, the Cubs wouldn't have the kind of depth they needed to deal with an injury.
...
Beane had an idea. He could fill Hendry's need for depth by adding veteran swingman Chad Gaudin in the trade. He phoned Hendry back on Monday night with the suggestion. "That could work," Hendry said, and the two general managers began piecing together other parts of the trade.
   245. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: July 09, 2008 at 06:30 AM (#2850247)
Knowing Beane, the guy he really wanted all along was Eric Patterson, and he just kind of gently guided talks in that general direction... "yeah, I'll throw in Gaudin to help you with the depth problem, but you've gotta even it up a little... who? Oh, I don't know... do you have any second baseman-outfielder types sitting around you might not need? Oh, you DO? What's his name again? Batson?"
   246. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: July 09, 2008 at 08:26 AM (#2850259)
Great trade for the Cubs. No matter how it turns out, another great midseason deal by Hendry.
   247. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: July 09, 2008 at 09:19 AM (#2850270)
I just don't think EPat is that good. The Cubs aren't convinced he's an everyday 2b, and he's brutal in LF (maybe he'd be better with a lot more playing time there). Murton is what he is-a good player, but not exactly the guy you want in a corner spot. I like Gallagher, but as most people say he's not a great prospect. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a Kyle Lohse-type career. He'll look great in Oakland with that park and that defense. It's hard to expect anything from a guy hitting in the low .200s in A ball, then again he could turn out to be something.

Same thing from the Cubs perspective. Harden's great, but he's always hurt. Gaudin's useful, but he's not great. I think it's a low risk, high reward trade for both teams. Harden's probably the 2nd best SP that was available. This trade doesn't change the Cubs' postseason chances in any way, but could help them if they get to the postseason.

SSR had a great post about previous Cubs/A's trades. That one didn't include the Bellhorn deal. The Cubs have held their own against Beane when it comes to trades.

---

Good to see most of the blind Beane worhsip is gone, but there's quite a few head-scratching posts in this thread. Such as

It is really hard to imagine this being a good trade for the Cubs.
   248. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2008 at 09:35 AM (#2850272)
Oddly, the Cubs were the only team that Beane was discussing Harden with, according to the SF Chronicle. That doesn't really make much sense.
   249. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 09, 2008 at 09:57 AM (#2850274)
Oddly, the Cubs were the only team that Beane was discussing Harden with, according to the SF Chronicle. That doesn't really make much sense.


I know - are the phone lines down in Philly right now?
   250. retro-shiite Posted: July 09, 2008 at 11:37 AM (#2850281)
acquire the best outfielder they've had since Jermaine Dye/Nick Swisher,

I've always been a big Matt Murton supporter, but the quoted statement's kind of pathetic.
   251. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: July 09, 2008 at 11:42 AM (#2850282)
Good to see most of the blind Beane worhsip is gone, but there's quite a few head-scratching posts in this thread.

I've been hanging out here for a couple of years now and I don't recall much blind Beane worship. I think this has become one of those truthy things like "Republicans are good with the economy" that people sometimes still say but no one believes anymore. I can't remember the last time Beane made a trade I didn't have some reservations about. Hell, I'm still annoyed at the Octavio Dotel fiasco.

Anyway, I'm going to let the good news of the Michel Inoa signing wash over my skepticism of this trade. That and the A's are still only 5 games back and Duke is having a dream season. There's some good stuff going on.
   252. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: July 09, 2008 at 11:45 AM (#2850283)
acquire the best outfielder they've had since Jermaine Dye/Nick Swisher,

I've always been a big Matt Murton supporter, but the quoted statement's kind of pathetic.


Carlos Gonzales is much, much better than Matt Murton. Ryan Sweeney may be better than Matt Murton. I'm not even sure Matt Murton is as good as Matt Murton anymore.
   253. Mattbert Posted: July 09, 2008 at 11:51 AM (#2850288)
Shooty, just tell yourself they had to move that albatross Harden to clear a rotation spot for Brett Anderson.

And keep singing "Sunshine On My Shoulders" over and over again. Michelle Inoa ain't got nothing on a little John Denver.
   254. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: July 09, 2008 at 11:54 AM (#2850290)
Shooty, just tell yourself they had to move that albatross Harden to clear a rotation spot for Brett Anderson.

Replace Anderson with Cahill and you might not be joking. That kid is unreal.
   255. AROM Posted: July 09, 2008 at 11:55 AM (#2850291)
Carlos Gonzales is the next Garret Anderson.
   256. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: July 09, 2008 at 11:58 AM (#2850292)
Carlos Gonzales is the next Garret Anderson.

I can't tell if you're trying to be mean here or not.
   257. AROM Posted: July 09, 2008 at 11:59 AM (#2850293)
"He's been lonely since Dick Pole got axed"

That's gotta hurt.
   258. Mattbert Posted: July 09, 2008 at 12:03 PM (#2850294)
Replace Anderson with Cahill and you might not be joking. That kid is unreal.

I have to cop to not knowing who he was until 10 minutes ago. Wow. I'm surprised he's not being talked up more with that kind of line in high A as a 20-year-old.
   259. AROM Posted: July 09, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#2850295)
Shooty, how you take it is up to you. If you're one of the A's fans who's spent the last decade and a half making fun of Anderson, then payback's a #####. If you can enjoy a good defensive OF with extra base power who swings at everything, then Carlos is your man.
   260. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: July 09, 2008 at 12:08 PM (#2850297)
Shooty, how you take it is up to you. If you're one of the A's fans who's spent the last decade and a half making fun of Anderson, then payback's a #####. If you can enjoy a good defensive OF with extra base power who swings at everything, then Carlos is your man.

AROM, if he can have the career Anderson would have had without the arthritis or whatever it was that slowed him down, I'll be happy. That's a damn good player.
   261. MSI Posted: July 09, 2008 at 12:09 PM (#2850298)
The next big trade. Burnett, Eckstein, and Adam Lind for Matt Kemp and Andy Laroche/Chin-Lung Hu.

Maybe Burnett waves no trade clause cause he likes LA. You guys get compensation picks and a possibly good starter in Lind. We get Kemp and DH LaRoche as backup for Rolen when he leaves or gets injured. Hu does play shortstop but his stock is way down this year. Dodgers also get back some offense possibly in Lind and Ecks.
   262. retro-shiite Posted: July 09, 2008 at 12:52 PM (#2850312)
he's brutal in LF (maybe he'd be better with a lot more playing time there).

Even if he improves in left, he doesn't have the bat to carry a corner, so it'd be a waste of time. Patterson either makes it as an everyday 2B, or he's a utility player.
   263. retro-shiite Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:02 PM (#2850314)
The next big trade. Burnett, Eckstein, and Adam Lind for Matt Kemp and Andy Laroche/Chin-Lung Hu.

If Colletti makes that trade, he's retarded. (Cue 867 Dodger fans saying "Duh...")

Oh--you mean LaRoche OR Hu. Still retarded.
   264. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:32 PM (#2850327)
Maybe Joe C isn't is right. There is far too little respect for Billy Beane on this site.

Late again, and I understand your snark, but almost regardless of who the GM is, the wrong reaction to a trade like this is OMG HOW COULD THE A'S DO THAT?!? This iseems like a pretty reasonable trade to me. You're not getting a Justin Upton (or even a Matt LaPorta) for a guy who has thrown 150 innings in three years. The Cubs filled a need, got a nice throw in in Gaudin, and Billy Beane continues towards his goal of having a major league roster with 25 slightly above average players on it.
   265. retro-shiite Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:33 PM (#2850329)
Any chance the Yankees'll take Marquis off the Cubs' hands? Marquis isn't very good, but he's a damn sight better than Victor Feckin' Zambrano.
   266. Bad Doctor Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:34 PM (#2850330)
Oddly, the Cubs were the only team that Beane was discussing Harden with, according to the SF Chronicle. That doesn't really make much sense.

I know - are the phone lines down in Philly right now?


Murton=Victorino
Donaldson=Marson
Gallagher=Carrasco
Patterson=Donald or Cardenas

Hell, I'd probably do that, and I'd say it's a better return for the A's.

Gaudin is being overrated: As a starter he put up a paltry 4.53 xFIP last season, indicating he relies more on a ballpark that highly suppresses BABIP, and a defense that usually is amongst the league leaders in defensive efficiency.

Knock a quarter or fifth of a run off for leaving the AL ... that doesn't look overrated to me. Don't know if his offseason surgery is affecting him negatively, though his K/BB is much better than previous years. Hell, if Harden's arm falls off tomorrow, Gaudin would still be the second-best starter in the Phils' rotation right now.
   267. zonk Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:42 PM (#2850334)
Any chance the Yankees'll take Marquis off the Cubs' hands? Marquis isn't very good, but he's a damn sight better than Victor Feckin' Zambrano.


I can bash Jason Marquis with the best of them, but there's just no getting around the fact that he had an ERA+ of 101 last season - and at 94, is in the same zip code this season.

I see no reason not to trade Marquis - especially now that big Z seems fine and the Cubs now have mediocre SPs to burn - but as much as I hate to say it, that 3/21 contract hasn't been anywhere near the millstone I thought it would be.

I'd listen to offers, but I'm in no hurry to move Marquis. I would expect any team doing the acquiring to take on the full remainder of his contract and actually offer something of moderate value in return... a B prospect, a lefty reliever, etc.

I know the standard BBTF response would be that this would be overpaying for Jason Marquis -- but the Cubs have now gotten roughly 300 innings of ERA+ ~100 ball from Marquis. All in all, I've stopped being a Marquis hater.
   268. SteveM. Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2850337)
Those thinking Matt Murton is an average or above average defender have never seen him play. He is below average in right and barely tolerable in left.
   269. retro-shiite Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2850338)
I see no reason not to trade Marquis - especially now that big Z seems fine and the Cubs now have mediocre SPs to burn - but as much as I hate to say it, that 3/21 contract hasn't been anywhere near the millstone I thought it would be.

Marquis has been better than I expected too (which gives you an idea of what my expectations were), but he's sort of redundant at this point, at best. I suppose my ideal scenario is trading him for a lefty reliever, which means the Cubs probably stay on the hook for his contract, but that'd be a better use of resources. I don't know that the Yankees have that to trade. (Too bad Littlefield's not running things in Pittsburgh anymore--if he'd take on a washed up, expensive Matt Morris, surely he'd take an innings-eating stud like Marquis for Damaso Marte...)

Then again, he IS Lou's favorite pinch runner...
   270. retro-shiite Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:55 PM (#2850345)
Those thinking Matt Murton is an average or above average defender have never seen him play. He is below average in right and barely tolerable in left.

I dunno; I think he's OK in left. He makes the occasional gaffe, but he covers more ground than you'd think by looking at him. He doesn't throw very well, so he's ill-suited to right. Basically, he's useful to the right team (which wasn't the Cubs), but he's pretty limited. I think it's safe to say I overrated him 2 years ago.
   271. zonk Posted: July 09, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2850347)
Marquis has been better than I expected too (which gives you an idea of what my expectations were), but he's sort of redundant at this point, at best.


He certainly is - and especially now with Gaudin, the Cubs probably can do without the rotation depth. Still- I'm just not in a mood to give him away. I guess the only problem is that, IIRC, Marquis has a history of being a clubhouse problem when he's not used as he expects to be.

Before I'd actively look to trade Marquis, I'd like to see Rich Hill right himself. Granted, it was done in AZL, but he finally showed some command in his last outing. If he can put together a solid July and make himself nominally available to fill in on the big club during Aug/Sept where necessary, I'd feel much better about shipping Marquis out of town. I'm not counting on Hill to pitch another inning in the big leagues this season - and Lou certainly does seem to hold grudges - but I like being in a situation where putting one of the big four on the shelf for a week or two... skipping a start here and there, etc - isn't any real sort of problem.
   272. retro-shiite Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:01 PM (#2850355)
Man, how frickin' cool would it be if Hill could actually contribute something this year? Not that it's at all likely.
   273. The Curly W Theory Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:10 PM (#2850363)
I've seen two statements that seemed odd to me in the preceding posts:
1. Buster Olney calling Chad Gaudin "veteran swingman". Chad Gaudin is 25. I thought that was when one's car insurance rates went down, not when one received the mantle of Veteran Goodness.
2. Someone suggested that Gaudin doesn't have the minor league track record of Sean Gallagher. Not sure what that was based on (and not sure how I'm going to format this):

Age Gaudin ERA Gallagher ERA
18 x 3.09
19 2.27 (A) 2.71/1.80 (A/A+)
20 2.14/0.47 (A+/AA) 2.31/2.72 (A+/AA)
21 4.69 (AAA) 3.39/2.66 (AA/AAA)
22 3.10 (AAA) 3.35 (AAA)
23 0.37 (AAA) x


Age Gaudin WHIP Gallagher WHIP
18 x 1.40
19 1.20 1.11/1.20
20 1.08/0.58 1.23/1.50
21 1.35 1.28/1.13
22 1.16 1.03
23 0.92 x

I don't see an enormous difference. What's more, Gaudin was first effective at the major league level at age 20 (granted, he scuffled at 21 and 22). I don't see what makes their track records significantly different.
   274. zonk Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:11 PM (#2850365)
I dunno; I think he's OK in left. He makes the occasional gaffe, but he covers more ground than you'd think by looking at him. He doesn't throw very well, so he's ill-suited to right. Basically, he's useful to the right team (which wasn't the Cubs), but he's pretty limited. I think it's safe to say I overrated him 2 years ago.


His arm is the key - I think you're spot on - he doesn't have the arm to play RF. This limits him to LF.

Murton has roughly 1000 major league at-bats, and a 294/362/448 line. That's plenty fine if your team is getting plus offense out of premium defensive positions and you're looking to save money elsewhere on the diamond.

I think too many people are projecting their "if only Matt Stairs...." fantasies onto Murton - and the problem is, Murton doesn't really have Stairs pop, and at 26, isn't likely to develop it.

Matt Murton is valuable so long as he is cheap. The minute he becomes a 7 figure earner -- his positional limitations cause his value to drop through the floor.
   275. The Curly W Theory Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:11 PM (#2850366)
And, sure enough, I don't know how to format that. Sorry.
   276. JPWF13 Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:20 PM (#2850369)
and the problem is, Murton doesn't really have Stairs pop, and at 26, isn't likely to develop it.


Murton hits the ball hard- he's just got no loft.
   277. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:24 PM (#2850372)
The A's weren't likely to give Harden more then 100 innings this season (regardless of his health, following the "30ish"-innings over previous season total rule)

You have no basis for this whatsoever. Nothing in their usage of pitchers suggests anything of the sort.
   278. Shredder Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:24 PM (#2850374)
If I were the Cubs, I'd DL Harden right now. Tell him to relax, hit the beach for a few weeks. Start warming sometime around mid-August, and get ready to come back at the beginning of September. They only need him for two months.

This is the freaking Cubs we're talking about. They should give away the entire farm system to go for it this season. All they have to do is win one World Series and they're set for the next century.
   279. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2850378)
Gaudin is being <strike>over</strike>underrated: As a starter he put up a paltry 4.53 xFIP last season, indicating <strike>he relies more on a ballpark that highly suppresses BABIP, and a defense that usually is amongst the league leaders in defensive efficiency</strike> that he was inexplicably left in the rotation for months after the team was out of the race when he was known to be injured, during which time his performance cratered after a strong first half.
   280. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:47 PM (#2850390)
I'm surprised Cedeno wasn't part of the deal. I think most of us had conceded that he'd go in whatever deal it took to get another starter.

I'm interested in seeing where Burnett winds up. Some don't think it'll take much to get him, so I wonder if St. Louis makes a run at him. It'd be funny to see Hendry go flip Cedeno for Burnett, but at this point, that would mean (assuming everyone stays healthy and the Cubs make the playoffs) either Lily or Dempster would pitch out of the pen in October. Not likely.
   281. Andere Richtingen Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:48 PM (#2850391)
Those thinking Matt Murton is an average or above average defender have never seen him play. He is below average in right and barely tolerable in left.

ZR-based stats have Murton down as average to good. He does not have a strong arm but he is accurate and he at least usually hits the cutoff man.

That said, he's very defensively limited. Even if he hits to his career average so far and plays somewhat above average defense at a corner OF position, he's not a big plus. I wonder if the A's are going to consider trying him out at 1B. If they can add any defensive versatility at all to his repertoire, it greatly increases his value. If you use him primarily as a lefty-masher and can play him at multiple positions without a big defensive cost, you've got yourself a useful piece of the puzzle. The Cubs never managed to do this optimally.
   282. Andere Richtingen Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:50 PM (#2850392)
I think too many people are projecting their "if only Matt Stairs...." fantasies onto Murton - and the problem is, Murton doesn't really have Stairs pop, and at 26, isn't likely to develop it.

And of course, Stairs played on the busy end of the platoon.
   283. MM1f Posted: July 09, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2850397)

Those thinking Matt Murton is an average or above average defender have never seen him play. He is below average in right and barely tolerable in left.


I dunno. Coming out of college he could run fine and fake CF. He still couldn't throw at all of course but he looked like a guy that could be a major league average or better LF defender.

Of course, that was some time ago
   284. MM1f Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:19 PM (#2850415)
Since Cahill was brought up..

What I love about following his uber-breakout is that, if he had turned down the draft, he might be pitching against Ivy League hitters. Before his sr. year of HS he was a strong student who was a merely good baseball player so he committed to Dartmouth since he wasn't a hot prospect at the time. Then, of course he broke out, got drafted and is now mowing down pro hitters.

What if he had turned the A's down and gone to Dartmouth, where he'd be just a sophomore?
Point being, if he can strike out 1 guy an inning against AA batters, how many crappy Ivy League hitters could he strike out per inning? Four? : )
   285. ColonelTom Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2850422)
I'm trying to laugh as much as possible before the aforementioned Bedard-Carrasco trade is announced in a couple weeks.

(sob)


Or even worse: Bedard-Rasmus.

As a Phils fan, if Bedard has a clean bill of health, I'd make a Bedard for Carrasco trade in a heartbeat. The Phils' time is now, and that rotation isn't going to get it done without another front-of-the-rotation starter. Bedard's cheap this year ($7M) and up for arbitration next year - even if he gets $12M or so, that's a hell of a lot cheaper than an equivalent free-agent starter (remember Carlos Silva?).
   286. AROM Posted: July 09, 2008 at 03:31 PM (#2850430)
The A's weren't likely to give Harden more then 100 innings this season (regardless of his health, following the "30ish"-innings over previous season total rule)


I have never heard that rule mentioned with injured pitchers. I thought it was for young pitchers building up their arms - 120 one year, then 150, then 180, etc.

Harden threw 153 innings in 2002, 176 in 2003, and 189 in 2004. Start applying that rule to him all over again and it will be 2013 before you can get a full season out of him. There's no more potential in Harden, either he can pitch or he can't. You might as well get what innings you can out of him before his contract is up or his arm runs out.
   287. Greg Franklin Posted: July 09, 2008 at 07:51 PM (#2850854)
MGL popped up a quick assessment of the trade in his playoff simulator post. It echoes what you all have said: A's don't lose much chance of making the '08 playoffs without Harden; Cubs were going to the '08 playoffs anyway, but if healthy Harden will improve their chances of winning in the playoffs.

Link

Shredder's #278 was excellent. That's the Roger Clemens approach to roster construction when he was in his older, more fragile years.
   288. Walt Davis Posted: July 10, 2008 at 01:58 AM (#2851434)
Point being, if he can strike out 1 guy an inning against AA batters, how many crappy Ivy League hitters could he strike out per inning? Four? : )

Which cow college did you go to? Cornell? :-)
   289. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 10, 2008 at 02:49 AM (#2851518)
Murton has roughly 1000 major league at-bats, and a 294/362/448 line.


In 2007, major-league LFers hit .277/.347/.453 and major-league RFers hit .281/.351/.453; just for good measure, DHs hit .268/.354/.447. So, Murton pretty much hits like an average corner-outfielder/DH.
   290. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 10, 2008 at 02:53 AM (#2851524)
Which cow college did you go to? Cornell? :-)

Bovine University?
   291. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 10, 2008 at 02:54 AM (#2851525)
Murton pretty much hits like an average corner-outfielder/DH.

That career line is in a hitter's park in the weaker league.
   292. akrasian Posted: July 10, 2008 at 03:06 AM (#2851548)
That career line is in a hitter's park in the weaker league.

And of course, includes at least some platooning.

Also, the stats for all left fielders and all right fielders include those of backups, and of players who got called up as injury replacements and washed out. I'd suspect if you just took the lines from players who played the largest amount at those positions for every team, the average would be noticeably higher. I like Murton, I hope he finds a good situation and lives up to the potential people thought he had - but his line if adjusted properly is probably closer to a weak starter than an average one.
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