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Friday, February 22, 2019

Cubs have sixth-best 2019 World Series odds, according to Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Las Vegas’ oddsmakers are high on the Cubs’ chances of having a successful 2019 season.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released its over/under win total, World Series, pennant, division and playoff odds for each MLB team for the 2019 season. In comparison to the rest of MLB, the Cubs have the sixth-best odds to win the World Series (second-best in the National League).

When did Dave Cameron become a bookie?

QLE Posted: February 22, 2019 at 06:43 AM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs, las vegas, odds

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 22, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5817318)
Didn't Vegas hear about their 80-win projection?
   2. Man o' Schwar Posted: February 22, 2019 at 12:22 PM (#5817370)
So the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are in the top 5? That's going to be a tough division.
   3. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: February 22, 2019 at 01:12 PM (#5817388)
Jose's picks;

Cincinnati Reds (80-1) - I like what they've done this winter and the division is not unwinnable. The Cubs could blow it apart but I think it's more likely that 92 wins gets a team there.

Philadelphia Phillies (14-1) - I still think they land Harper and again, the division looks unimpressive to me.

Chicago White Sox (60-1) - The White Sox have a 2006 Tigers/2008 Rays feel to me. They probably won't reach those heights but I can see them taking a big leap forward this year and at 60-1 if the Indians wobble they look as well positioned as any team to sneak ahead of them.
   4. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 22, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5817396)
So the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are in the top 5?

Top 5 in what?
   5. Man o' Schwar Posted: February 22, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5817398)
Cubs were picked to be last in the NL Central by someone. If they also have the sixth-best WS odds, then the other 4 NL Central teams must be in the top 5.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 22, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5817399)
Julian Edelman is already printing "NOBODY BELIEVES IN THE CUBS" t-shirts.
   7. Zonk Sits on the Stool next to Slats Steely Posted: February 22, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5817403)
I think having a bit of a chip on their shoulders would probably be a good thing for this Cubs edition... so long as they don't go all 2004 on us have that chip make them into a bunch of whiny shits.
   8. Michael Paulionis Posted: February 22, 2019 at 03:57 PM (#5817442)
5. Man o' Schwar Posted: February 22, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5817398)
Cubs were picked to be last in the NL Central by someone. If they also have the sixth-best WS odds, then the other 4 NL Central teams must be in the top 5.


You got it mixed up. Vegas odds like Chicago (which is normal; even before 2016 their odds of winning the WS were always a bad bet from a bettors standpoint). PECOTA has them finishing last in the Central. Both are a little over-the-top. The Reds have been pretty smart in the offseason and the Pirates shouldn't implode completely, but I doubt they will both finish above 79 wins. I guess PECOTA has Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both at 81 and the Cubs at 80 so take that with a grain of salt.

FTA:

Vegas' odds differ from Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system. The latter, of course, projects the Cubs to finish last in the NL Central in 2019. PECOTA initially pegged the Cubs to finish 82-80 in 2019, though their most up-to-date projection has the Cubs finishing 79-83 this season.

As a reminder, both PECOTA and Vegas are not fortune tellers. While they are fun talking points for fans in the offseason, one should not get too caught up and overreact to where their favorite team stands.
   9. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 22, 2019 at 04:13 PM (#5817449)

Cubs were picked to be last in the NL Central by someone. If they also have the sixth-best WS odds, then the other 4 NL Central teams must be in the top 5.

They're picked last in the Central by some projection systems like Pecota. But the Vegas oddsmakers have them with the 6th-best WS odds in the NL. Two different "systems".
   10. Nasty Nate Posted: February 22, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5817451)
C'mon guys, #5 was facetious...
   11. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 22, 2019 at 04:20 PM (#5817452)
. . . the Cubs have the sixth-best odds to win the World Series

Sixth-best? I believe there is a curse of sorts associated with that position.
   12. Hank White Posted: February 22, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5817461)
I saw what you did there #5.
   13. Man o' Schwar Posted: February 22, 2019 at 05:26 PM (#5817467)
Yes, twas a joke. I was mocking the PECOTA prediction.
   14. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 22, 2019 at 05:40 PM (#5817471)
I came here to make the same joke that Man did in [2]. I usually get beaten to jokes, so I wasn’t surprised to see somebody beat me to it. I was surprised to see the joke get panned.
   15. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 22, 2019 at 05:41 PM (#5817472)
Since it is sixth best of something, though, there is probably a Mariners joke still out there to be made.
   16. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 22, 2019 at 06:03 PM (#5817482)
Since it is sixth best of something, though, there is probably a Mariners joke still out there to be made.

I am waiting to make the sixth best Mariners joke.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: February 22, 2019 at 07:40 PM (#5817494)
The 6th best joke is in the intro for crying out loud.
   18. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 22, 2019 at 08:16 PM (#5817499)
depending on which Vegas book you're looking at, the Cubs are ranked anywhere from 4-7 to win it all
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: February 22, 2019 at 08:57 PM (#5817510)
.... I think the central division is probably the strongest and most balanced division in baseball... and that no team in the division is a clear favorite for best team in the league, but that the worst team in the division(Reds) is much better than the worst team in every other division.

I also think it's very likely the Cubs are probably the best team in the division if we ran 100 simulations.... but at the same time... I'm a Cardinal fan, and in a near perfect scenario I could see them not only as the best team in the division, but all of baseball... but the reality is that going forward, the Brewers improved themselves enough to give people faith in their continual performance, the Cubs had an odd year last year, that probably doesn't really represent their talent, and yet they still did good... not sold on the Pirates enough to be honest.... but for the record, if it's possible for 5 teams in a 5 team division with an unbalanced scheduled to produce 5 .500 teams or better.... I think this version of the NL Central is the best chance of that happening. But more than likely, the Reds flip flop with the Pirates who will more than likely finish last in the division. While the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers fight it out for the central based upon which of their players show up... the talent is there, it's the ability to get the talent to show up that is going to matter.

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