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Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Cy Young Award winners too close to call | MLB.com

AL finalists Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber were 1-2-3 in FanGraphs’ WAR rankings, but the margin between them was tiny. Porcello, who led the Major Leagues with 22 wins, registered 5.2 fWAR—the same as Verlander. Kluber, who finished third at 5.1, would have been the first horse eliminated in the photo finish, but only by the length of a nose.

Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer are named as the finalists for BBWAA’s 2016 NL Cy Young Award

National League finalists Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer might be just as tough for voters to separate. You also have to wonder how much separation they achieved from the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and late Marlins starter Jose Fernandez, who ranked 1-2 in the Major Leagues in fWAR.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:11 AM | 62 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, cy young award

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   1. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:17 AM (#5353942)
My picks are Kluber and Lester.

My guess as to the winners are Kluber and Hendricks.
   2. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:31 AM (#5353945)
My guess as to the winners are Kluber and Hendricks.


Would that make them the first Cy Young winners to square off in Game 7 of the World Series in their Cy Young winning season?
   3. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:41 AM (#5353951)
Would that make them the first Cy Young winners to square off in Game 7 of the World Series in their Cy Young winning season?


Yes, but it wouldn't be the first time they both appeared in a game 7. In 2001, Clemens started for the Yankees against runner up Schilling, and Johnson came in in relief.
   4. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:47 AM (#5353956)
Yes, but it wouldn't be the first time they both appeared in a game 7. In 2001, Clemens started for the Yankees against runner up Schilling, and Johnson came in in relief.


So a 1-2 Lester, Hendricks finish and Kluber win would mark the second time the NL Cy Young winner relieved the Cy Young runner-up in a World Series Game 7 when the other league's Cy Young winner started for the AL, with both games won by the NL in its last at-bat.

Now I know what I'm rooting for in the results.
   5. Ziggy's screen name Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:55 AM (#5353958)
I agree that they're amazingly close. Guess I'd go with kluber and Lester, but ask me again in five minutes and I might have a different answer. That said, porcello is going to win it. We might not care about wins that much anymore, but when they're this close 22 wins will make the difference.
   6. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:09 AM (#5353971)
I'm predicting Porcello and Scherzer. No reason, really, just feeling nostalgic for that amazing 2013 Tigers rotation. Would be cool to see a third member get a Cy Young.
   7. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:53 AM (#5354001)
I'm predicting Porcello and Scherzer. No reason, really, just feeling nostalgic for that amazing 2013 Tigers rotation. Would be cool to see a third member get a Cy Young.


So the 2013 Tigers rotation would have had three (eventual) Cy Young winners on it (if that happens)?

So what is the most "awarded" rotation, if you count awards won before or after that season?

The 1996 Atlanta Braves had 3 Cy Young winners (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz) and a guy who finished second (Schmidt, in 2003).
The 1998 Atlanta Braves had 3 Cy Young winners (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz) and 2 guys who finished third (Neagle 1997, Millwood in 1999).
The 1998 Toronto Blue Jays had 4 Cy Young winners (Clemens, Hentgen, Carpenter, Halladay (only 2 starts)).
   8. TJ Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:59 AM (#5354006)
Rooting for Verlander, would have voted for Kluber, predicting Porcello (for the reason Ziggy cited). There- now my head hurts...
   9. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 16, 2016 at 12:16 PM (#5354019)
Porcello, who led the Major Leagues with 22 wins, registered 5.2 fWAR—the same as Verlander.


13. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 06, 2015 at 10:01 PM (#4925084)
I think it's pretty clear that Porcello is not a 2, and probably stretched as a 3. This is a man with a career ERA+ of 98. He's not good, and this is a truly ####### contract. The Sox might not get a *single* good season out of him, even if he's healthy the whole time.


I hope someone got fired for offering that #### contract extension to Porcello...
   10. Sleepless in Munich Posted: November 16, 2016 at 12:27 PM (#5354029)
The 2017 Braves are on pace for an all-CYA-winner rotation. They just need to sign Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum plus trade for Chris Sale.
   11. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: November 16, 2016 at 12:53 PM (#5354048)

So what is the most "awarded" rotation, if you count awards won before or after that season?

1972 A's had 4 Cy Young winners (Hunter, Fingers, Blue, McLain (2 CYs)), three of whom won MVPs (Fingers, Blue, McLain).
   12. Batman Posted: November 16, 2016 at 01:07 PM (#5354056)
The 1980 Orioles had three: Jim Palmer (Cy Old), Steve Stone (Cy Present), and Mike Flanagan (Cy Young.) Cy Future (Scott McGregor), Dennis Martinez, and Mike Boddicker (7 IP that year) never quite made it
   13. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 16, 2016 at 01:14 PM (#5354067)
The 1996 Atlanta Braves had 3 Cy Young winners (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz) and a guy who finished second (Schmidt, in 2003).


The 1993-95 Braves had three Cy winners, plus a Cy-winning reliever (Bedrosian).

   14. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 16, 2016 at 01:18 PM (#5354073)
It's a stretch to say that Denny McLain was in the 1972 A's rotation. He made five starts for them.
   15. Batman Posted: November 16, 2016 at 01:41 PM (#5354081)
The legendary 1986 White Sox only had two Cy winners, but they combined for seven of them. One of them was traded to Boston, and he and a teammate there combined for ten.
   16. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: November 16, 2016 at 02:00 PM (#5354089)
It's a stretch to say that Denny McLain was in the 1972 A's rotation. He made five starts for them.
Well his 5 trumps Halladay's two and Fingers wasn't in the rotation either.
   17. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 16, 2016 at 02:24 PM (#5354101)
Aww, Syndergaard should have at least made the top 3 for the NL.
   18. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 16, 2016 at 02:32 PM (#5354105)
The 1980 yankees had 2 winners (Guidry and Perry), another guy who would have won had the award been given out in both leagues at the time (Kaat), a guy who finished second twice (John), a guy who would have finished second had the voters been able to vote for top 3 or 5 instead of just one (Tiant), and a guy who finished 3rd, and 3rd in MVP (Gossage). The 1979 Yankees had all those guys but Perry, but they had Hunter.
   19. Baldrick Posted: November 16, 2016 at 03:18 PM (#5354136)
Aww, Syndergaard should have at least made the top 3 for the NL.

Top 3 in the NL seems fine to me. Syndergaard had a great year, but gave up more runs in fewer innings than Hendricks and Lester. And he had 45 (!) fewer innings than Scherzer. In those 45 extra innings, Scherzer gave up just 16 more runs, which is a pretty solid rate of return.

I wouldn't argue strenuously against anyone who included Syndergaard in the mix, or even ranked him first. But I don't think it's a problem that he ended up outside the top 3. It was really just a very close year, well beyond those guys. If someone filled out a ballot that went Scherzer, Syndergaard Cueto for the top 3, I wouldn't consider that a travesty, either.
   20. Spahn Insane Posted: November 16, 2016 at 05:18 PM (#5354205)
The 2017 Braves are on pace for an all-CYA-winner rotation. They just need to sign Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum plus trade for Chris Sale.

Maybe talk Brandon Webb out of retirement.
   21. Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast Posted: November 16, 2016 at 05:38 PM (#5354212)
Kershaw's trying to make it six consecutive years receiving multiple first-place Cy votes. Anybody know what the record is?
   22. Baldrick Posted: November 16, 2016 at 06:10 PM (#5354227)
Kershaw's trying to make it six consecutive years receiving multiple first-place Cy votes. Anybody know what the record is?

Maddux had four in a row (obviously) and five out of six. Koufax had four in a row. Johnson had his four in a row and five out of six. Though he got votes based on just 11 starts with Houston in 1998 - so could theoretically have made it six in a row with a full season in one league.

No one else I can think of that came close. Clemens, Seaver, and Carlton spaced their good seasons out too broadly. Pedro ran into Clemens' 98 in the middle of his run. Palmer didn't make it. Who else would even have been close?
   23. Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast Posted: November 16, 2016 at 06:30 PM (#5354235)
Well, he got two first place votes and finished fifth, so the streak continues.
   24. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 16, 2016 at 06:34 PM (#5354238)
Wow, Scherzer won by a lot. That's surprising. I thought at least it would be close.
   25. Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast Posted: November 16, 2016 at 06:48 PM (#5354248)
Kershaw moves up to 3.96 career Cy Young Shares, moving him past Tom Seaver into 6th on the all-time list. He's still behind Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Carlton, and Pedro. If he has a typical year in 2017, he'll pass Pedro and Carlton.
   26. Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:03 PM (#5354253)
From True Blue L.A.:
Kershaw is the first pitcher ever to receive at least one first-place vote in six consecutive seasons, receiving a total of 83 first-place votes from 2011-16.

The only other pitchers to receive any votes for six straight seasons are Greg Maddux (7 straight years, 1992-98), Randy Johnson (1997-2002), Johan Santana (2003-08) and Roy Halladay (2006-11).
   27. Fat Al Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:04 PM (#5354255)
   28. AndrewJ Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:08 PM (#5354257)
1972 A's had 4 Cy Young winners (Hunter, Fingers, Blue, McLain (2 CYs)), three of whom won MVPs (Fingers, Blue, McLain).

The 1956-58 Dodgers staff had MVPs Don Newcombe and Sandy Koufax, and the 1962-64 Cardinals had Bobby Shantz and Bob Gibson.
   29. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:09 PM (#5354258)
How do you search one's own old posts? Because I made a joke about Porcello going 22-4 and winning the Cy sometime near the end of July I think. He was cruising along and it wasn't a huge long shot, but geez I never figured it would happen.
   30. Greg Pope Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:17 PM (#5354262)
Here you go, Hugh. Post 8.
   31. ReggieThomasLives Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:26 PM (#5354267)
Tweet of the Day


She's funny too?
   32. Baldrick Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:42 PM (#5354271)
Kershaw's two votes came from one of the LA guys and Dave Cameron.

And I have to say: while I wouldn't have voted for him, I really do think Kershaw had at least a semi-legit case. Scherzer threw 80 more innings. Which, yes, is quite a lot. But he gave up 46 more runs in those innings. Which is also a lot. And at a certain point, ridiculous dominance is more interesting than simply being very good.
   33. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:50 PM (#5354273)
#32 is that park-adjusted?

######## about down-ballot votes in a perfectly justifiable award selection? Why, Kate Upton could be a primate!
   34. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: November 16, 2016 at 08:00 PM (#5354274)
Ok ok, I'll sacrifice and invite her.
   35. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 16, 2016 at 08:10 PM (#5354277)
Kershaw's two votes came from one of the LA guys and Dave Cameron.

Cameron was just making sure to preserve Kershaw's #6 years of first place votes.
   36. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 16, 2016 at 08:11 PM (#5354278)
Tweet of the Day

That's great. And of course, the first response under the tweet is someone complaining about the Presidential election, because apparently that our frame of reference for everything now.
   37. Howie Menckel Posted: November 16, 2016 at 08:17 PM (#5354280)
yeah, 27 is gold.
   38. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 16, 2016 at 08:29 PM (#5354283)
#30. Thanks.
It was Sept. so I wasn't that prophetic after all. This is what happens when you get old, you misremember stuff all the time....
   39. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: November 16, 2016 at 08:40 PM (#5354288)
Justin Verlander may not have finished first in the CYA voting today...but he is still winning.
   40. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:17 PM (#5354298)
Tweet of the Day


She's funny too?


think you meant two
   41. The Honorable Ardo Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:21 PM (#5354300)
Kate's tweet-storm aside, the real issue is that "22 Wins!" won the award for Porcello when both Verlander and Kluber had better seasons.
   42. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:39 PM (#5354307)
Scherzer's got about 60 percent of a Hall of Fame career now.
   43. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:39 PM (#5354308)
Oh ####, not only do I have to live in a world with President Trump, but I also have to live with Cy Young Award Winner Rick Porcello?

#### me with a chainsaw. Worst Cy Young choice in ages. He's a goddamned scrub.
   44. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:41 PM (#5354310)
Kate's tweet-storm aside, the real issue is that "22 Wins!" won the award for Porcello when both Verlander and Kluber had better seasons.


Forest and trees mate. No one really cares about these awards and the tweet-storm is just bloody brilliant.

Gee that girl has quite the mouth on her....as I'm sure Justin knows quite well.
   45. AndrewJ Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:42 PM (#5354311)
41>> No different than Steve Stone beating out Mike Norris in 1980, or Bob Welch beating out Clemens in 1990...
   46. AndrewJ Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:44 PM (#5354312)
Or LaMarr Hoyt edging Quisenberry in '83...
   47. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:49 PM (#5354314)
Porcello was (barely, but still) the AL leader in pitching WAR over at fangraphs. Pete Vuckovich this is not, recent hysterics notwithstanding.

   48. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:50 PM (#5354315)
Rick Porcello is a 3rd or 4th starter. I will go to his bobblehead day next year just to break it in half when he gives up back to back to back to back doubles to spot the other team a three run lead in a game the Sox win 8-5 even though he went 5 IP and gave up 4 runs.
   49. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:15 PM (#5354320)
Porcello was (barely, but still) the AL leader in pitching WAR over at fangraphs. Pete Vuckovich this is not, recent hysterics notwithstanding.

Seconded. Most of the stats I care about led me to the conclusion that Verlander was the best pitcher in the league, with Kluber a close second, but there's a lot of room for uncertainty there.

Porcello had a great year. The 22-4 record means something even if it doesn't mean as much as some people think. The Red Sox went 25-8 in his starts. He threw a lot of innings with a good ERA, made 26 quality starts (only Verlander had more), and had a K/BB ratio of nearly 6. In most of the areas where Verlander and/or Kluber were better, they weren't THAT much better. Granted, Porcello doesn't strike out as many batters as the other Cy Young candidates; other than that, he's right up near the top of every category.
   50. Baldrick Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:31 PM (#5354325)
Since the start of 2013, Scherzer has 26 WAR. Kershaw is at 28.4. They're #1 and #2, obviously. Sale is #3. Guesses about who rounds out the top 5?

This is using bWAR, and is only pitching wins.
   51. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:12 PM (#5354331)
Since the start of 2013, Scherzer has 26 WAR. Kershaw is at 28.4. They're #1 and #2, obviously. Sale is #3. Guesses about who rounds out the top 5?

This is using bWAR, and is only pitching wins.


Bumgarner and Quintana?
   52. Baldrick Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:15 PM (#5354332)
Quintana is #7 and Bumgarner is #10.

I was surprised at Quintana, because I thought I remembered him having a major bust season a couple years back. But he's actually been amazingly solid every year.
   53. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:15 PM (#5354333)
Felix and Kluber?
   54. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:21 PM (#5354334)
I was surprised at Quintana, because I thought I remembered him having a major bust season a couple years back. But he's actually been amazing solid every year.


That's what I figured as well... I think I was mixing him up with Hector Santiago.
   55. Baldrick Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:24 PM (#5354335)
Kluber is #6 and Felix is #8. So we've mostly rounded out the top 10, but are still missing #4 and #5.

Hint: one of the guys in the top five would move up a couple places if we included offensive WAR.
   56. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:27 PM (#5354337)
Greinke and Hamels?
   57. Baldrick Posted: November 16, 2016 at 11:31 PM (#5354338)
Greinke and Hamels?

That's it. Greinke is #5, but would move up ahead of Hamels and Sale if you factor in his bat.

A lot of that is his ridiculous 2015, of course, but he's been at least decent in the three other years.
   58. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 17, 2016 at 04:08 AM (#5354344)
Porcello was second in the AL in ERA+ and FIP, to Kluber. It was close, and he threw 8 more innings. I can see an argument for any of the three (including Verlander) and find it hard to get up-in-arms about Porcello's selection. (Plus it's nice to see a new first-time winner).
   59. GGC Posted: November 20, 2016 at 10:33 AM (#5355812)
 32. Baldrick Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:42 PM (#5354271)
Kershaw's two votes came from one of the LA guys and Dave Cameron.

And I have to say: while I wouldn't have voted for him, I really do think Kershaw had at least a semi-legit case. Scherzer threw 80 more innings. Which, yes, is quite a lot. But he gave up 46 more runs in those innings. Which is also a lot. And at a certain point, ridiculous dominance is more interesting than simply being very good.


This is something for me to chew on this week. The question for me is: Where is this point? Also, I'm not sure if you need to use this argument in Kershaw's favor. Though it may be a crude tool because it doesn't adjust for his playing time, Kershaw had the 2nd most pitching rWAR in the NL, tied with Johnny Cueto.
   60. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 20, 2016 at 11:04 AM (#5355814)
Scherzer threw 80 more innings. Which, yes, is quite a lot. But he gave up 46 more runs in those innings. Which is also a lot. And at a certain point, ridiculous dominance is more interesting than simply being very good.


That means Kershaw + ~80 innings of ~5.18 ERA pitcher = Scherzer.
In that case, I give the advantage to Kershaw because you should be able to plug those missing ~80 innings with something much better than ~5.18 ERA.
If it took ~80 of 4.18 ERA pitching to make up the difference, then I think that's harder to fill so the advantage goes to Scherzer.

BTW, ~80 innings of ~5.18 ERA is somewhere between Justin Nicolino (79IP 4.99 ERA) and Edwin Jackson (84IP 5.89 ERA) and Logan Verrett (91IP 5.20 ERA).
   61. Baldrick Posted: November 20, 2016 at 11:41 AM (#5355822)
That said, the raw numbers aren't park or defense adjusted. And (IIRC) both of those things would help Scherzer. So I don't think I could really justify putting Kershaw first if I had a vote. But I'd at least give it some thought.
   62. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 21, 2016 at 01:58 AM (#5355995)
That means Kershaw + ~80 innings of ~5.18 ERA pitcher = Scherzer.
In that case, I give the advantage to Kershaw because you should be able to plug those missing ~80 innings with something much better than ~5.18 ERA.


I understand the point here, but I think this type of analysis (lower-inning guy + whatever it takes to make up the innings of a higher-inning guy) is a little too simplistic.

For one thing, it assumes that all of those innings can be made up by a single pitcher, or at least a single roster spot, and that's probably not the case. In Kershaw's case, he missed 12 or 13 starts, and trailed Scherzer by about 80 innings. So, to make him equivalent to Scherzer, you not only need a replacement who can give you a 5.18 ERA (perhaps not that hard to find) but that guy ALSO needs to give you 6+ innings per start, which is harder to find. Otherwise those innings will get handed off to your bullpen, which could potentially have a ripple effect leading to them being less effective overall.

Also, in most cases the organization that has to replace the lower-inning guy has only a handful of realistic options to choose from, so even finding "replacement-level" innings is not really a given -- maybe the best starter at AAA is simply not very good, or maybe the team is already down to #8 on its depth chart because of other injuries. I don't follow the Dodgers closely so I don't know who "replaced" Kershaw, but I see that they had 15 pitchers start games for them this year, and 7 of those guys (representing 29 starts and 7 relief appearances) had ERAs on the season of 5.79 or higher. So I don't know if it's a safe assumption to say that the Dodgers could plug those missing innings with a 5.18 ERA.

However, I do agree that if anyone can deserve the Cy Young despite missing 13 starts, it would be Kershaw.

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