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Sunday, March 31, 2013

OTP: April 2013: Daily Caller: Baseball and the GOP: To rebrand the party, think like a sports fan

This week’s GOP autopsy report, commissioned by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, is a great start in the much-needed task of rebranding the Republican Party. As the chairman acknowledged, “the way we communicate our principles isn’t resonating widely enough” and “we have to be more inclusive.” The report contains 219 recommendations to “connect people to our principles.” To achieve that goal, the party will need a strategic vision of how voters think about politics, which is something that the report lacks. For that, the GOP can learn a lot from another American passion: baseball.

This year, about 75 million Americans will go to the baseball stadium to watch a ballgame, about the same number as those who will vote in next year’s election. We rarely think about why someone becomes a baseball fan, or why they root for a certain team. Nor do we usually think about why someone chooses to vote for a certain political party. But it’s actually a very useful exercise.

When it comes to baseball, fan loyalty has almost nothing to do with the brain, and almost everything to do with the heart. In all of history, there’s never been a baseball fan who rooted for his team because it had the lowest ticket prices, or because it had the most taxpayer-friendly stadium deal, or because its players did the most community service. For the vast majority of Americans, rooting for a baseball team — not to mention, voting for a political party — isn’t really a rational choice; it’s more of a statement of personal identity — a statement telling the world, “This is who I am.” And for most people, defining “who I am” starts with family and community, before branching out into areas like race, age, gender, and class.

Family is pretty straightforward. If your mom and dad are Yankee fans, you’re almost certainly a Yankee fan. The same is true in politics. If your mom and dad are Republicans, you’re almost certainly a Republican.

Community is also pretty straightforward. If you grew up in, say, Philadelphia, chances are pretty great you’re a Phillies fan. Likewise, someone who grew up in Republican territory like, say, suburban Dallas or rural Indiana is much more likely to become a Republican than a nearly identical person from Seattle or Santa Fe.

Cities with more than one baseball team, like New York or Chicago, show revealing breakdowns by race and gender. The racial split in Chicago between Cubs fans on the North Side and White Sox fans on the South Side is well-documented. In New York, there’s an intriguing gender gap between Mets and Yankee fans, with women gravitating a lot more to the Yanks. While there’s a few theories out there trying to explain that, one obvious answer leaps out: Yankees heartthrob Derek Jeter.

In sports, as in politics, people’s convictions can’t be conveniently reduced to who their parents are or what they look like. But those things are an important foundation, upon which more rational sentiments come into being. Once you’re attached to your team on an emotional level — seeing them as a personal reflection of who you are and what you care about most — a rational exterior comes into being through phrases like “the Red Sox are the best team because they have the most heart” or “the Republicans are the best party because they know how to create jobs.”

Tripon Posted: March 31, 2013 at 10:52 AM | 6544 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: politics

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   4001. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:59 PM (#4419401)
Again, not the international consensus. The rules of war state that only nation-states have the right to declare war. Anyone else risks being deemed illegitimate, and can expect none of the rights of legitimate combatants.

Not sure about that. We declared war against a-Q on September 18, 2001. If a-Q is weighty enough to have war declared upon it, it seems entirely inconsistent to say that it can't itself declare war.

Very technically, of course, the AUMF wasn't a formal declaration of war in the old-school sense, but it was an authorization to use force. I see no reason a-Q wouldn't have the parallel right to authorize itself to use force.

And, it stands to reason, that if it could do so on September 18, 2001, it could do so on September 10, 2001. It was essentially the same organization on both days.

The suggestion isn't that a-Q has no right to defend itself against the force authorized by the AUMF, is it?
   4002. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:59 PM (#4419402)
The trap is that often attorneys think

Fixed.

) It doesn't take much brilliance to build a bomb and drop it off in a crowd.

More than you think. There are plenty of amateur bomb builders, who only ever managed to blow themselves up in their basements.
   4003. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:00 PM (#4419403)
There is no draft anymore.


There was one?
   4004. GregD Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:02 PM (#4419406)
Calls his nephews, "losers". And is careful to include his brother in the list of losers.
The quote I saw seemed to indicate he was defending his brother while denouncing his nephews:

"Somebody radicalized them, but it wasn't my brother," said Tsarni. He blamed "hatred to those who were able to settle themselves" for the attacks. "These are the only reasons I can imagine," he said. "Anything else to do with religion, to do with Islam, is a fraud, is a fake."

link
   4005. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:05 PM (#4419410)
"Somebody radicalized them, but it wasn't my brother," said Tsarni. He blamed "hatred to those who were able to settle themselves" for the attacks. "These are the only reasons I can imagine," he said. "Anything else to do with religion, to do with Islam, is a fraud, is a fake."


That's a counter shot in the internal war *within Islam.* He's strongly declaring the moderate, "settled" Muslims who don't think they need to blow up the world to be the correct readers of Islam. That's good.
   4006. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:06 PM (#4419411)
Warns ' Hell Will Break Loose' if Son Dies



Pretty sure that alone can land one in Gitmo.


Well, first they have to go to Russia and get him.
   4007. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:08 PM (#4419413)
I'd say partisan and illegal combatant; at least until the US Gov't was recognized by foreign powers.


So, by your logic the American Revolutionaries were terrorists and morally abhorrent up until the point where they were 1) acknowledged by some other, outside national force as a country/nation, and/or 2) won.

That's some hard core relativism, brah.
   4008. Joey B. Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:08 PM (#4419414)
Calls his nephews, "losers". And is careful to include his brother in the list of losers.

No kidding. The father says that if something happens to his son, there will be "hell to pay". I mean, is that supposed to be some kind of threat or something? What are you going to do, pops?
   4009. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:08 PM (#4419415)
I've spent a lot of time in Watertown, know a lot of people there. One of them told me her house is being searched right now, as they're going door to door. They apparently swept her downstairs unit (she rents it out - tenants are away) before she even knew they were down there.

(Warrantless searches are justified in manhunt type exigent situations, although usually from the cases I've read they've specifically followed the person into the home. Just FYI, as I don't actually care about this issue.)
   4010. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:09 PM (#4419417)
I mean, is that supposed to be some kind of threat or something? What are you going to do, pops?


Post on a message board somewhere?
   4011. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:09 PM (#4419418)
More than you think. There are plenty of amateur bomb builders, who only ever managed to blow themselves up in their basements.


It's worth remembering that the deadliest bombing by the Weather Underground was the one in which some of them accidentally blew up their own safehouse. And these were people who'd already made some bombs.
   4012. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:10 PM (#4419419)
I mean, is that supposed to be some kind of threat or something? What are you going to do, pops?


Those fancy golf hats didn't pay for themselves...
   4013. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:13 PM (#4419420)
The suggestion isn't that a-Q has no right to defend itself against the force authorized by the AUMF, is it?

No, they have the right to defend themselves.
   4014. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:15 PM (#4419423)
So, by your logic the American Revolutionaries were terrorists and morally abhorrent up until the point where they were 1) acknowledged by some other, outside national force as a country/nation, and/or 2) won.

That's some hard core relativism, brah.


No. They were revolutionaries, and as long as they attacked British military targets, they were not terrorists, and not immoral (if you believe they had good cause for the revolution).

If they started killing Loyalist civilians, they would have been terrorists.

If they fought out of uniform or recognizable military units, they were illegal combatants.
   4015. Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:15 PM (#4419424)
Post on a message board somewhere?
I'm imagining an army of miniature giraffes.
   4016. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:15 PM (#4419425)
No, they have the right to defend themselves.


You are clinging very tightly to a 17th century (at best) concept of legitimate powers. (Which, admittedly, isn't shocking.)
   4017. Dale Sams Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:16 PM (#4419426)
Just FYI, as I don't actually care about this issue


Power checks require entities like the ACLU who morally may not agree with what they are doing, but *everyone* nodding in unison is never a good idea when at least the letter of the law is being trampled on.

Also, if they found him in that basement...wouldn't any evidence they found on him be useless?
   4018. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:16 PM (#4419427)
(Warrantless searches are justified in manhunt type exigent situations, although usually from the cases I've read they've specifically followed the person into the home. Just FYI, as I don't actually care about this issue.)


Acutally, I do. I mean, OK, if it's necessary for public safety, fine. What if they find evidence of other crimes while doing a warrantless search? I know the cops have more urgent matters, but if they find a meth lab or a grow house?
   4019. Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:16 PM (#4419428)
No. They were revolutionaries, and as long as they attacked British military targets, they were not terrorists, and not immoral (if you believe they had good cause for the revolution).
And if you didn't, then they were terrorists.
   4020. Ron J2 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:17 PM (#4419430)
#4011 Worth noting that Ramzi Yousef is in custody because of an accident while making a bomb. Didn't blow himself up, just created a really nasty smell that attracted unwanted attention. And he was an extemely experienced bomb maker.
   4021. Ron J2 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:18 PM (#4419431)
4004 I made the mistake of relying on somebody else summarizing his statement. Thanks.
   4022. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:19 PM (#4419432)
Also, if they found him in that basement...wouldn't any evidence they found on him be useless?


Even worse, what if they came across a baseball blogger?
   4023. Guapo Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:20 PM (#4419433)
So where does everyone think Dzokhar is?

I'm guessing he's dead in an alley somewhere.
   4024. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:22 PM (#4419436)
No, they have the right to defend themselves.

Then their right to the "war causes collateral damage" defense kicks in on September 18, 2001 at the very latest and they've had it ever since.

What about the other question? If a-Q was weighty and defined enough to have the AUMF aimed against it, how was it not weighty and defined enough to have itself passed an AUMF-type pronouncement?
   4025. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:22 PM (#4419437)
The way I always thought of explosives work is, you have to provide a lot of energy to get the nitrogens to go into a form where they are part of an explosive, and then they are just DYING to turn into N2 are release all that energy, and ain't nothing you can do to change that and that makes explosives work inherently dangerous.
   4026. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:23 PM (#4419438)
Power checks require entities like the ACLU who morally may not agree with what they are doing, but *everyone* nodding in unison is never a good idea when at least the letter of the law is being trampled on.


I'm not clear whether a warrantless search in this situation would be a violation of the 4th Amendment. I'd have to go back over the law. My gut tells me it would be, since they didn't actually follow him into a home. But I'm not certain.

Also, if they found him in that basement...wouldn't any evidence they found on him be useless?


First, I'm not clear whether he's a citizen.

Assuming he is, if they found him in someone else's basement not his own? No, his 4th Amendment rights weren't violated in that case. (And neither would his 4th Amendment rights beviolated even if he were in his own basement - exigent circumstances - but certainly not if he's in someone else's.)

   4027. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:24 PM (#4419439)
The lockdown doesn't appear to be total:


“At the direction of authorities, select Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants in the Boston area are open to take care of the needs of law enforcement and first responders.”
   4028. The Good Face Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:25 PM (#4419440)
More than you think. There are plenty of amateur bomb builders, who only ever managed to blow themselves up in their basements.


It's worth remembering that the deadliest bombing by the Weather Underground was the one in which some of them accidentally blew up their own safehouse. And these were people who'd already made some bombs.


Yep. Making bombs, particularly deadly ones capable of killing/maiming lots of people, is not actually all that easy. Especially if you're some untrained amateur working in your garage or basement. There's a lot that can go wrong, aside from blowing yourself up.

Fortunately, the vast majority of people with the smarts and capabilities necessary to assemble a really destructive bomb have no interest in doing so.
   4029. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:25 PM (#4419441)
Acutally, I do. I mean, OK, if it's necessary for public safety, fine. What if they find evidence of other crimes while doing a warrantless search? I know the cops have more urgent matters, but if they find a meth lab or a grow house?


There's case law where the cops were chasing a guy through a neighborhood. He ran through an open front door of a neighbor. Cops followed in full pursuit. He ran through the living room. Cops ran through the living room, noticed a group of men packaging coke on a table. Cops put the breaks on and arrested them. The appellate court ruled that the evidence could be used against them in court.
   4030. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:26 PM (#4419442)

If they started killing Loyalist civilians, they would have been terrorists.


But tar-and-feathering is just boys being boys.
   4031. Howling John Shade Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:27 PM (#4419443)
First, I'm not clear whether he's a citizen.

His 4th amendment rights don't depend on his citizenship.

Edit: Also, gotta think this qualifies as exigent circumstances, although it would be an interesting case if they find a dude growing pot or something and try and prosecute him.
   4032. Dale Sams Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:28 PM (#4419444)
I'm guessing he's dead in an alley somewhere.


Seems they would have found that. I'd guess he's dead or alive in a really good hiding spot. Maybe he crashed the van, left the door open, then hid under a blanket in the back seat floorboard. After they towed it, he just got out. Or he could have pulled up a sewer grate and crawled into the hole.
   4033. Srul Itza Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:28 PM (#4419445)
Good to see Joey B remains a complete ####### moron.


Then stop quoting him, so that the many of us who have him on ignore can enjoy the silence.
   4034. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:28 PM (#4419446)
There were plenty of revenge killings between Loyalists and Rebels in the Revolutionary War. In many districts, particularly in the south, fighting went on without any British Regulars or Continental Army troops present at all.
   4035. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:29 PM (#4419447)
His 4th amendment rights don't depend on his citizenship.


You're right - it's broader than that.
   4036. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:34 PM (#4419453)
First, I'm not clear whether he's a citizen.


Naturalized on Sept 11, 2012.
   4037. formerly dp Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:34 PM (#4419454)
Also, if they found him in that basement...wouldn't any evidence they found on him be useless?
Even worse, what if they came across a baseball blogger?
Winner.
   4038. Srul Itza Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:34 PM (#4419455)
. We chose to topple the Taliban because it was easy and Bush and company were not given to sweating the aftermath.


It is also a lot to send troops to scour the countryside and blow stuff up, if the government in charge is not yet actively opposing you, as the Taliban would have been/
   4039. Dale Sams Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:35 PM (#4419456)
To sum up, I'm disturbed by:

The lockdown of a major metropolis for this guy. How close is what we are seeing to a mandatory lockdown? Seems pretty close, and you can't tell me that no cop today told some people to get off the streets.

Warrantless searches

Soldiers(?)being used. I mean, under whose authority did that happen? I don't object to the idea, but is it legal?


I guess that's about it.
   4040. Ron J2 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:35 PM (#4419457)
They've found an Amazaon wishlist for Tamerlan. It includes:



- How to Make Driver's Licenses and Other ID on Your Home Computer

- The I.D. Forger: Homemade Birth Certificates & ?Other Documents Explained

- Secrets Of A Back Alley ID Man: Fake Id Construction Techniques Of The Underground

- The Lone Wolf And the Bear: Three Centuries of Chechen Defiance of Russian Rule

- Organized Crime: AN INSIDE GUIDE TO THE WORLD'S MOST SUCCESSFUL INDUSTRY

Boethius and Suetonius are on the list too.
   4041. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:36 PM (#4419458)
I'm guessing he's dead in an alley somewhere.



Seems they would have found that.

By this point, yes.

Maybe he crashed the van, left the door open, then hid under a blanket in the back seat floorboard. After they towed it, he just got out.

Somehow I doubt that.

Or he could have pulled up a sewer grate and crawled into the hole.

The best hiding place would likely be somewhere underground. And if he's gone to the trouble of finding a great hiding place, my guess is he's still alive. Why bother to hide well if you're just going to blow your brains out anyway?

I think it's highly unlikely he's fashioned a sophisticated booby trap or anything. It appears as though these clowns didn't plan nearly well enough to pull off anything like that.
   4042. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:37 PM (#4419459)
What about the other question? If a-Q was weighty and defined enough to have the AUMF aimed against it, how was it not weighty and defined enough to have itself passed an AUMF-type pronouncement?


Not an answer to your question, but it has always pissed me off that the US declared war on 'terror'. How do you declare war on an idea?
   4043. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:39 PM (#4419461)
The lockdown of a major metropolis for this guy. How close is what we are seeing to a mandatory lockdown? Seems pretty close, and you can't tell me that no cop today told some people to get off the streets.


It's not mandatory, although I assume cops have told people to go back inside. This is from Gov Patrick an hour or so ago I believe:

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick says his request for people in the Boston area to stay indoors remains in effect for now. "We know what an inconvenience it is, in Watertown and Cambridge in particular ... but it’s been enormously helpful … to law enforcement.”
   4044. Rennie's Tenet Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:39 PM (#4419462)
Also, gotta think this qualifies as exigent circumstances,


The Fourth Amendment is mainly a balancing of facts, although there's so much case law on it that it seems to be law-driven. Undoubtedly, the police don't need any more than the events of the last five days to enter buildings near where the fugitive was last seen. The interesting question is what would happen if they open drawers, etc., saying they were looking for materials the fugitive might have ditched?
   4045. ASmitty Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:40 PM (#4419463)
Not an answer to your question, but it has always pissed me off that the US declared war on 'terror'. How do you declare war on an idea?


I was terrified once in 2004; the government came and arrested my feelings :'(
   4046. zenbitz Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:42 PM (#4419466)
The way I always thought of explosives work is, you have to provide a lot of energy to get the nitrogens to go into a form where they are part of an explosive, and then they are just DYING to turn into N2 are release all that energy, and ain't nothing you can do to change that and that makes explosives work inherently dangerous.


Well, plastique is very stable, needs an current and probably a primer to set it off. I don't even think it explodes if you throw it into the fireplace. The primers/detonaters are stable.
Of course fissionables are EXTREMELY hard to set off.
   4047. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:43 PM (#4419470)
dale

understood on the concerns. but this is a unique situation where you have what is now a desperate person likely to do anything to facilitate escaping authorities. not having general citizens on the street reduces the possibility that they get caught up in an ugly scenario

   4048. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4419472)
from the dugout: red sox game reportedly cancelled/postponed
   4049. bunyon Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:47 PM (#4419474)
Explosives you can whip together in your home, without purchasing special equipment or starting materials are all generally pretty unstable. A truly bright person who doesn't have ready access to an arms dealer simply won't make a bomb.
   4050. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:48 PM (#4419475)

Soldiers(?)being used. I mean, under whose authority did that happen? I don't object to the idea, but is it legal?


National Guardsmen, I assume under the authority of the governor.
   4051. Swedish Chef Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:49 PM (#4419476)
War on inflation
War on cancer

There are precedents for declaring war on concepts.
   4052. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:52 PM (#4419478)
Pretty sure that alone can land one in Gitmo.


Well, first they have to go to Russia and get him.


He's Chechen, I'm sure Putin would gladly have him roughed up, bundled up and on a plane if we asked.

My guess is that he's most likely hiding in someone's backyard storage shed.

Second guess is that he's managed to get out of town and is on some rural road 250+ miles from Boston.
   4053. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:53 PM (#4419479)
There was a War on Poverty; we only wanted to Whip Inflation Now
   4054. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:54 PM (#4419480)
There are precedents for declaring war on concepts.

Yes, but ya know, in those cases "war" was actually a euphemism. Things like tanks and missiles and special forces weren't literally deployed. Might be kind of different.
   4055. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:56 PM (#4419481)
Second guess is that he's managed to get out of town and is on some rural road 250+ miles from Boston.

If so, he will have demonstrated vastly more wit than he and his brother delivered since Monday afternoon.
   4056. Srul Itza Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:57 PM (#4419483)
(Warrantless searches are justified in manhunt type exigent situations, although usually from the cases I've read they've specifically followed the person into the home. Just FYI, as I don't actually care about this issue.)


Of course, in order to have a fourth amendment claim, you have to have a reasonable expectation of privacy in the place being searched. A fugitive hiding in a stranger's house does not, so he has no standing to complain. Now, if they find some weed and decide to prosecute the actual tenant, that could be fun.
   4057. GregD Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:58 PM (#4419485)
Yes, but ya know, in those cases "war" was actually a euphemism. Things like tanks and missiles and special forces weren't literally deployed. Might be kind of different.
You're forgettin how we kicked Drugs' ass all over the hemisphere
   4058. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4419487)
The Fourth Amendment is mainly a balancing of facts, although there's so much case law on it that it seems to be law-driven. Undoubtedly, the police don't need any more than the events of the last five days to enter buildings near where the fugitive was last seen. The interesting question is what would happen if they open drawers, etc., saying they were looking for materials the fugitive might have ditched?

In practice, all they'd have to do would be to explain specifically why they started looking there, for that stuff, after they entered the building looking for the guy.
The courts won't second-guess cops without a great reason.

If the cops found somebody else's grow house while doing a legit search for the bomber, the DA would argue that the purpose of the exclusionary rule is to "punish" the State for some wrong-doing, and these cops didn't do anything wrong: they simply observed their surroundings during this exigent-iest of circumstances.
Bad luck for the grow house guy.
   4059. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4419488)
Christmas is hiding in an undisclosed location-- the War continues!
   4060. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:01 PM (#4419489)
Random speculation, these boys thought they were going to get away with it, thought they wouldn't be identified, wouldn't get caught, made no plans to get out of town-

probably thought it was hysterical when the NY Post posted some other poor slob's photo...
then late Thursday afternoon their photos were published

either they waited until dark, or didn't know about it until dark, then they decided to flee, but knocked off a 7-11 for both food and money- lack of planning

also the schmucks didn't even think, "gee, maybe we should drive SOMEWHERE for an hour or two, wher ethere's less of a police presence before we try to get money/food"
   4061. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:01 PM (#4419490)
You're forgettin how we kicked Drugs' ass all over the hemisphere

Yeah, Drugs is really a-hurtin'.
   4062. Srul Itza Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:02 PM (#4419492)
There's case law where the cops were chasing a guy through a neighborhood. He ran through an open front door of a neighbor. Cops followed in full pursuit. He ran through the living room. Cops ran through the living room, noticed a group of men packaging coke on a table. Cops put the breaks on and arrested them. The appellate court ruled that the evidence could be used against them in court.


That's hot pursuit. A full scale door-to-door search may be different.
   4063. Ron J2 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:03 PM (#4419494)
Steve, "drug war" wasn't just simply a metaphor in Columbia and isn't now in Mexico.
   4064. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:04 PM (#4419495)
either they waited until dark, or didn't know about it until dark, then they decided to flee, but knocked off a 7-11 for both food and money- lack of planning

also the schmucks didn't even think, "gee, maybe we should drive SOMEWHERE for an hour or two, wher ethere's less of a police presence before we try to get money/food"


Yes, the combination of total lack of a plan to get lost, and botching the holy hell out of getting lost once they figured out that might be a pretty fair idea, is rather impressive.
   4065. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4419496)

from the dugout: red sox game reportedly cancelled/postponed


MLB.com has the game still on, albeit on a wait and see basis.
   4066. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4419497)
Steve, "drug war" wasn't just simply a metaphor in Columbia and isn't now in Mexico.

True, and in both cases it's been shown to be every bit as futile and chaotic and cost-beneficially braindead as the War on Terror.
   4067. Morty Causa Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:07 PM (#4419498)
“At the direction of authorities, select Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants in the Boston area are open to take care of the needs of law enforcement and first responders.”


Getting close to Clancy Wiggum territory, this is.
   4068. ASmitty Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:08 PM (#4419499)
If the cops found somebody else's grow house while doing a legit search for the bomber, the DA would argue that the purpose of the exclusionary rule is to "punish" the State for some wrong-doing, and the cops didn't do anything wrong: they simply observed their surroundings during this exigent-iest of circumstances.
Bad luck for the grow house guy.


This. If the cops did nothing wrong, and all of the actions were justified by various exceptions, then it's just tough titties for the "innocent" third parties.

As Ray noted, the only possible hang-up would be the argument that there were no exigent circumstances requiring the police to enter THAT specific place. But that argument would probably be a loser, given the deference usually afforded and the high-profiliness of this search.
   4069. Dale Sams Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4419502)
My guess is that he's most likely hiding in someone's backyard storage shed.


With SO many mixed forces, there can't possibly be one guy in charge making sure every place got checked. Just seems like it's ripe for a CF.
   4070. Dale Sams Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:12 PM (#4419503)
from the dugout: red sox game reportedly cancelled/postponed


So much for not letting the terrorists win.

As Ray noted, the only possible hang-up would be the argument that there were no exigent circumstances requiring the police to enter THAT specific place. But that argument would probably be a loser, given the deference usually afforded and the high-profiliness of this search.


But,

Def attorney: "Did you see the fugitive enter the house?"

cop: "No"

Def attorney: "And the search had been ongoing for 8 hours yes? Plenty of time to get a warrant, yes?"
   4071. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4419506)
Yes, the combination of total lack of a plan to get lost, and botching the holy hell out of getting lost once they figured out that might be a pretty fair idea, is rather impressive.


But the younger one, assuming he's not just hiding in a hole somewhere may have ascended a fair bit up the learning curve the last 12+ hours. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that he may know of, or run into someone "sympathetic" who'll take him in and hide him.
   4072. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4419507)
With SO many mixed forces, there can't possibly be one guy in charge making sure every place got checked.

I don't know, a block-by-block, lot-by-lot, structure-by-structure verification doesn't seem all that overwhelming to achieve, even with multiple agencies engaged.
   4073. ASmitty Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4419508)
But,

Def attorney: "Did you see the fugitive enter the house?"

cop: "No"

Def attorney: "And the search had been ongoing for 8 hours yes? Plenty of time to get a warrant, yes?"


Oh, I'm not saying it's RIGHT, I'm saying it's the way deference is usually accorded.
   4074. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:17 PM (#4419509)
There's case law where the cops were chasing a guy through a neighborhood. He ran through an open front door of a neighbor. Cops followed in full pursuit. He ran through the living room. Cops ran through the living room, noticed a group of men packaging coke on a table. Cops put the breaks on and arrested them. The appellate court ruled that the evidence could be used against them in court.


That's not a case, that's a scene from "House Party".
   4075. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:21 PM (#4419512)
Def attorney: "Did you see the fugitive enter the house?"

cop: "No"


"But I also didn't see the fugitive leave the house. We thought he was hiding in the immediate area. Officer safety armed and extremely dangerous emergency situation citywide search nine-eleven."

Judge: "Move it along, counsel."
   4076. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4419514)
Why are the Connecticut state police the ones issuing alerts for the vehicle the guy may be in now? Or is CNN just screwing up?
   4077. GregD Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4419515)
The video of the uncle talking is pretty riveting, though he doesn't know much about the kids because of some family division.
   4078. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4419516)
If so, he will have demonstrated vastly more wit than he and his brother delivered since Monday afternoon.


Which is entirely reasonable. From what I'm reading hodge podge (so, huge caveats apply) it's possible that the true fanatic was the older brother and the little brother was a lot more integrated into US society (i.e. played basketball at school, smoked weed with his friends, etc.) If so, then with the older, more fanatical brother dead, the younger brother may behave significantly differently without his influence. No more movie-chase shoot outs and bomb throwing at cops. More "hide and evade and try to live, because this martydom #### is bullocks."

Part of the error we always face in situations like this is assuming the psych profile of all of the participants is the same.
   4079. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:31 PM (#4419523)
There are precedents for declaring war on concepts.

Yes, but ya know, in those cases "war" was actually a euphemism. Things like tanks and missiles and special forces weren't literally deployed. Might be kind of different.

Bull. Have you seen the amount of chemical warfare that goes on in the war on cancer? They even use lasers for Christ's sake!
   4080. Ron J2 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:32 PM (#4419526)
#4066 I think you can argue for success in Columbia. Mexico not so much. If anything a bad situation has gotten worse since they went full military style war on drugs.
   4081. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:38 PM (#4419535)
4076 - beats me. they've been doing it for awhile.
   4082. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:42 PM (#4419537)
   4083. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:42 PM (#4419538)
The "military style war on drugs" is about funding for S.W.A.T divisions (which are never justified outside of the Boston type deal.)
   4084. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:44 PM (#4419542)
Don't forget about the cool free swag you can get through civil forfeiture!
   4085. zenbitz Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:45 PM (#4419545)
The War on Terror and the War on Cancer are actually quite related... although I don't mean the original WAC, but the actually ongoing struggle to cure/treat it.

Cells and tissues are analogous to people, and you are trying to ferret out and destroy the bad ones, but they keep evading detection, mutating, and multiplying.


The major difference being that when Cancer "wins" the body dies. When Terror wins, we cancel Red Sox games.
   4086. Knock on any Iorg Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:46 PM (#4419547)
I don't know what everybody is worried about. These guys pissed off a bunch of drunk, angry Irish guys in Boston. They have mere hours to live.
   4087. Jay Z Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:51 PM (#4419553)
There is no draft anymore. We aren't asking anybody, they are volunteering. The moral calculus, where innocent non-partisans become a lower priority, than people who have accepted to be paid specifically to assume that risk, is reprehensible.


Volunteer army is a bit of a cop-out. I think all of us believe we need an army/defense of some sort. Now we can have an expectation that we're all responsible for the defense, have more of the idea that a lot of people should be serving, but for more limited terms. Less professionalism. Or we can make the armed services all professional and cut checks. We've chosen the latter.

Yeah, a lot of people protested the Iraq war. But I think the protests are less effective, since there's no draft. Hey, we got these gung-ho people who will go, don't need you, they want to go, what do we care what you think? If there was more of an idea that protecting the county was an obligation, and not just something you wait for someone else to do or cut a check for, maybe the protests would have more teeth.

Now we had a draft for Vietnam and that war continued apace for quite some time before the protests started to have an impact. But perhaps there would be more ambivelence towards adventurism if the forces more reflected a cross section of society rather than the most gung ho.
   4088. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:55 PM (#4419556)
I don't know what everybody is worried about. These guys pissed off a bunch of drunk, angry Irish guys in Boston. They have mere hours to live.

Oh that depends which dunk Irish guy finds him. Some of them can draw that kind of thing out for days...
   4089. Morty Causa Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:57 PM (#4419559)
The major difference being that when Cancer "wins" the body dies. When Terror wins, we cancel Red Sox games.


No. You can check. It's in the news. People have died because of terrorism.

   4090. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:01 PM (#4419564)
I don't know what everybody is worried about. These guys pissed off a bunch of drunk, angry Irish guys in Boston. They have mere hours to live.


Ms. McGunnigle's father's side of the family consists primarily of drunk, angry Irish cops. I wouldn't trust any of them to find anything other than the next bottle of J&B.

(Her brother's a teetotaling angry Irish cop and might do OK, but alas he's in South Carolina.)
   4091. zenbitz Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:08 PM (#4419571)
No. You can check. It's in the news. People have died because of terrorism.


Well, one of us is bad at analogies. In fighting cancer, HEALTHY CELLS are killed, in parallel to INNOCENT TERRORIST victims killed.

The analogy to cancer killing the body would be terrorism collapsing and destroying a nation-state, society, or world. So maybe successful revolutions, with "death by cancer" equating to "transformation of nation"

Hope this Helps.
   4092. Howling John Shade Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:08 PM (#4419572)
You're forgettin how we kicked Drugs' ass all over the hemisphere

I've been doing my part by incinerating all the enemy combatants that I can get my hands on.
   4093. zenbitz Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:08 PM (#4419574)
also, in the movie version of this drama, the younger brother is killed at the end by a drone strike.
   4094. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:10 PM (#4419576)
You're forgettin how we kicked Drugs' ass all over the hemisphere

I've been doing my part by incinerating all the enemy combatants that I can get my hands on.

Why is the rum gone?!?
   4095. Howling John Shade Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:11 PM (#4419578)
#4066 I think you can argue for success in Columbia. Mexico not so much. If anything a bad situation has gotten worse since they went full military style war on drugs.

I actually wonder very much about this. Drug production in Colombia certainly hasn't gone away. I assume it's still easily the country's largest export, and yet most of the violence has. Is it just a matter of saner people controlling the cartels? Anyone know of any good reading on the subject?
   4096. Topher Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:12 PM (#4419579)
Gotta love(?) that going to boston.com gives you updates on the manhunt as well as an ad for The Company You Keep
   4097. Morty Causa Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:12 PM (#4419580)
4091:

No, one of us is being a smart ass in the face of a lot of people's pain and suffering, as is all too typical here, and thinks that rank trivializing proves something or other.
   4098. zenbitz Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:14 PM (#4419584)
Yes, everyone of us has friends and family who have been killed by Cancer.
   4099. Morty Causa Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:20 PM (#4419587)
Feeling it here in Lafayette, Louisiana

As she said off the record, it's like the song Hotel California: "you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave."
   4100. Ron J2 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:34 PM (#4419596)
#4095 Wiki says it's still the #1 coke producer. But it down 60% from the peak (2000)

Wiki also says the DEA mostly left the Cali Cartel alone in exchange for actionable information about the Medellin Cartel (Escobar and company). The Cali group was generally far less confrontational. They were however pretty ambitious. Among other things, they had their own massive wiretap network setup.

The various top dogs haven't lasted all that long in recent years. Most of them either ending up dead or deported to the US. The last bit's been really important. It's tremendously difficult to prosecute a top coke guy in Columbia. They have no hesitation about killing prosecutors, judges, witnesses, whatever and that's just not that easy for them to arrange in the US.
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