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Sunday, March 31, 2013

OTP: April 2013: Daily Caller: Baseball and the GOP: To rebrand the party, think like a sports fan

This week’s GOP autopsy report, commissioned by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, is a great start in the much-needed task of rebranding the Republican Party. As the chairman acknowledged, “the way we communicate our principles isn’t resonating widely enough” and “we have to be more inclusive.” The report contains 219 recommendations to “connect people to our principles.” To achieve that goal, the party will need a strategic vision of how voters think about politics, which is something that the report lacks. For that, the GOP can learn a lot from another American passion: baseball.

This year, about 75 million Americans will go to the baseball stadium to watch a ballgame, about the same number as those who will vote in next year’s election. We rarely think about why someone becomes a baseball fan, or why they root for a certain team. Nor do we usually think about why someone chooses to vote for a certain political party. But it’s actually a very useful exercise.

When it comes to baseball, fan loyalty has almost nothing to do with the brain, and almost everything to do with the heart. In all of history, there’s never been a baseball fan who rooted for his team because it had the lowest ticket prices, or because it had the most taxpayer-friendly stadium deal, or because its players did the most community service. For the vast majority of Americans, rooting for a baseball team — not to mention, voting for a political party — isn’t really a rational choice; it’s more of a statement of personal identity — a statement telling the world, “This is who I am.” And for most people, defining “who I am” starts with family and community, before branching out into areas like race, age, gender, and class.

Family is pretty straightforward. If your mom and dad are Yankee fans, you’re almost certainly a Yankee fan. The same is true in politics. If your mom and dad are Republicans, you’re almost certainly a Republican.

Community is also pretty straightforward. If you grew up in, say, Philadelphia, chances are pretty great you’re a Phillies fan. Likewise, someone who grew up in Republican territory like, say, suburban Dallas or rural Indiana is much more likely to become a Republican than a nearly identical person from Seattle or Santa Fe.

Cities with more than one baseball team, like New York or Chicago, show revealing breakdowns by race and gender. The racial split in Chicago between Cubs fans on the North Side and White Sox fans on the South Side is well-documented. In New York, there’s an intriguing gender gap between Mets and Yankee fans, with women gravitating a lot more to the Yanks. While there’s a few theories out there trying to explain that, one obvious answer leaps out: Yankees heartthrob Derek Jeter.

In sports, as in politics, people’s convictions can’t be conveniently reduced to who their parents are or what they look like. But those things are an important foundation, upon which more rational sentiments come into being. Once you’re attached to your team on an emotional level — seeing them as a personal reflection of who you are and what you care about most — a rational exterior comes into being through phrases like “the Red Sox are the best team because they have the most heart” or “the Republicans are the best party because they know how to create jobs.”

Tripon Posted: March 31, 2013 at 10:52 AM | 6544 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   4201. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:32 PM (#4419751)
Yes, and the need for him to reach into a backpack four or five times wouldn't have changed those numbers very much.

26 dead, 25, what's the dif? The world's full of kids.
   4202. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:33 PM (#4419752)
26 dead, 25, what's the dif? The world's full of kids.

Yeah. They aren't an endangered species. Let 'em splatter.
   4203. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:35 PM (#4419753)
26 dead, 25, what's the dif? The world's full of kids.
Yeah. They aren't an endangered species. Let 'em splatter.

Glib nonsense followed by a Treder high-five. It's déjà vu all over again.

(But treating #4201 seriously, I haven't been hearing politicians and activists claiming that some new gun law would reduce Newtown from 26 to 25 deaths. They keep talking about preventing Newtown, which is a pipe dream.)
   4204. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:40 PM (#4419754)
26 dead, 25, what's the dif? The world's full of kids.

Yeah. They aren't an endangered species. Let 'em splatter.


So why aren't you arguing in favor of warehousing mentally ill people if you're so concerned?
   4205. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:42 PM (#4419756)
Mmm, yes, glib nonsense... as opposed to "it doesn't take long to reach into a backpack, so my imaginary math wins."

Deduct 60, or 45, or 30 seconds from Lanza's less than 300 seconds of killing time. Obviously the death count would be identical, and it's "pure speculation" to suggest it might have been less. Kehoskie math.
   4206. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:48 PM (#4419758)
But treating #4201 seriously, I haven't been hearing politicians and activists claiming that some new gun law would reduce Newtown from 26 to 25 deaths. They keep talking about preventing Newtown, which is a pipe dream.

Pipe dreamy Senator Joe Manchin on his background check bill that was blocked this week:
"They [the families of Newtown shooting victims] even recognized that this legislation we’re working on, which is the background checks on criminal and mental illness, would not have saved their little babies.”

Pipe dreamy President Barack Obama:
"No single law, no set of laws can eliminate evil from the world or prevent every senseless act of violence in our society, but that can’t be an excuse for inaction."
   4207. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:49 PM (#4419759)
Humans also care about stopping abortions. They'll be thrilled to know they have your support!


Strangely, the most effective way to reduce abortions is not "make them illegal." That just makes them more dangerous; it doesn't do a lot to reduce the total number. Sex education and widely available contraception are probably better tactics for reducing total abortions.
   4208. Manny Coon Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:52 PM (#4419760)
Boston has nothing to do with the immigration debate.


We really need to stop letting 8 year old refugees into the country, they obviously are all future killers.
   4209. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:54 PM (#4419762)
Mmm, yes, glib nonsense... as opposed to "it doesn't take long to reach into a backpack, so my imaginary math wins."

Deduct 60, or 45, or 30 seconds from Lanza's less than 300 seconds of killing time. Obviously the death count would be identical, and it's "pure speculation" to suggest it might have been less. Kehoskie math.

More nonsense. Lanza shot unarmed six-year-olds up to 11 times each. The idea that he couldn't have killed the same number of people with a backpack full of magazines and/or additional handguns is just pure speculation on your part.

Pipe dreamy Senator Joe Manchin on his background check bill that was blocked this week:
"They [the families of Newtown shooting victims] even recognized that this legislation we’re working on, which is the background checks on criminal and mental illness, would not have saved their little babies.”

Pipe dreamy President Barack Obama:
"No single law, no set of laws can eliminate evil from the world or prevent every senseless act of violence in our society, but that can’t be an excuse for inaction."

Cute. Now show us the quotes from politicians pledging to enact gun laws that will reduce Newtown from 26 deaths to 25 deaths or 24 deaths rather than the empty promises that "These tragedies must end."*


(* A quote from the same Obama speech you cherry-picked in #4206.)
   4210. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:55 PM (#4419764)

Any law that limited clip capacity would have seriously limited Lanza's ability to kill as many as he did.


Nonsense.

It was 11-14 minutes from the time he broke in to the time he committed suicide. He could have killed 25 people with a single shot breechloader.
   4211. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:57 PM (#4419766)
"Less than 5 minutes" begins with Adam Lanza outside the school and ends with him dead. He fired 155 shots in less than 300 seconds.

That's not what's up on Wiki, if that's reliable info.

They have him shooting the door at 9:35, and not dead until between 9:46 to 9:49.
   4212. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:58 PM (#4419768)
Strangely, the most effective way to reduce abortions is not "make them illegal." That just makes them more dangerous; it doesn't do a lot to reduce the total number. Sex education and widely available contraception are probably better tactics for reducing total abortions.

This is entirely incorrect.
   4213. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:01 PM (#4419769)
Lindsey Graham tweeting that they shouldn't mirandize him, and should treat him as an enemy combatant.

I for one, support this treatment of Lindsey Graham.
   4214. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:01 PM (#4419770)
Sex education and widely available contraception are probably better tactics for reducing total abortions.


Contraception is widely available, and sex ed is not in short supply.

That people who don't want a child often decide to have unprotected sex anyway has nothing to do with these two things.
   4215. Manny Coon Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:02 PM (#4419772)

Any law that limited clip capacity would have seriously limited Lanza's ability to kill as many as he did.

Nonsense.

It was 11-14 minutes from the time he broke in to the time he committed suicide. He could have killed 25 people with a single shot breechloader.


I agree it wouldn't have made a difference, he could have easily done it with handguns and had access to handguns. He might have had more time, but look at the killing the Virginia Tech shooter did with handguns and that was able bodied adults he was killing not children.
   4216. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:03 PM (#4419773)
it's specious for politicians and activists to be claiming that some additional law could have prevented Newtown.


I don't know if anyone is claiming that, but if they are, they are doing it for political reasons and know it's not 100% the truth. Politicians exaggerate the effect their policy will have all the time, probably every time. That is nothing new, and if it's specious, then everything is specious, and thus nothing is. You're not going to get millions to volunteer for the Army because Germany is violating Belgium's neutrality. You get them because you have to stop the Germans from raping nuns and killing babies. Likewise, you are not going to get support for gun legislation by saying "This could have reduced the Newtown death toll by 15%."
   4217. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:05 PM (#4419775)
I don't know if anyone is claiming that, but if they are, they are doing it for political reasons and know it's not 100% the truth.

No, they know it's 0 percent the truth. Big difference.
   4218. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:06 PM (#4419776)
I'm not sure which post is dumber, 4212 or 4214, let's have a poll.
   4219. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:08 PM (#4419777)
I'm not sure which post is dumber, 4212 or 4214, let's have a poll.

You think there were tens of millions of back-alley abortions before Roe? Sorry, no sale.
   4220. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:08 PM (#4419779)
Contraception is widely available, and sex ed is not in short supply.


I view both of these things as good! I'm just saying, make contraception harder to get and I bet you'll see more abortions. Whereas making abortions illegal has been shown to not reduce the number much. (I put the word "much" in there because I haven't actually looked up the numbers for this post, and want wiggle room)
   4221. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:09 PM (#4419780)
No, they know it's 0 percent the truth. Big difference.


My point is, that happens with literally every piece of proposed legislation in the history of forever.

Do Republicans really believe that raising taxes on the richest of the rich will cause them to flee the country?
   4222. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:15 PM (#4419781)
My point is, that happens with literally every piece of proposed legislation in the history of forever.

Every piece of legislation doesn't remotely get demagogued the way gun laws were demagogued after Newtown.

Do Republicans really believe that raising taxes on the richest of the rich will cause them to flee the country?

I've never heard a Republican argue that all rich people would flee the country, just that a lot rich people's capital will flee the country — which, of course, we know is true.
   4223. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:36 PM (#4419788)
just that a lot rich people's capital will flee the country — which, of course, we know is true.


Of course we know it's not true. If it were true, why do so many high income earners voluntarily pay far more in taxes than they need to by living in NYC? Why haven't they fled to Fargo ND, or Ocala, FL, or Midland, TX, where their tax savings would dwarf an proposed federal increase proposed? If tax rates were the overriding consideration of where to live, Manhattan should be one of the least desirable places to live and its real estate among the cheapest. Instead, the exact opposite is true. Why would a Park Avenue penthouse owner flee the country because his taxes go up 10% when he hasn't even fled NY yet?
   4224. formerly dp Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:47 PM (#4419791)
I'm not sure which post is dumber, 4212 or 4214, let's have a poll.
Can I answer "both" or would that be cheating?
   4225. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4419793)
Of course we know it's not true. If it were true, why do so many high income earners voluntarily pay far more in taxes than they need to by living in NYC? Why haven't they fled to Fargo ND, or Ocala, FL, or Midland, TX, where their tax savings would dwarf an proposed federal increase proposed? If tax rates were the overriding consideration of where to live, Manhattan should be one of the least desirable places to live and its real estate among the cheapest. Instead, the exact opposite is true. Why would a Park Avenue penthouse owner flee the country because his taxes go up 10% when he hasn't even fled NY yet?

The fact that some rich people continue living in high-tax areas proves that none of rich people's capital is moved out of the country because of tax rates?

The above implies that tax havens (and offshore tax evasion) are a myth, yet I distinctly recall people here bashing Romney for having assets in the Caymans.
   4226. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:52 PM (#4419795)
Can I answer "both" or would that be cheating?

You think there were as many or more abortions before abortion was legal? Laughably absurd.
   4227. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:53 PM (#4419796)
Of course we know it's not true. If it were true, why do so many high income earners voluntarily pay far more in taxes than they need to by living in NYC? Why haven't they fled to Fargo ND, or Ocala, FL, or Midland, TX, where their tax savings would dwarf an proposed federal increase proposed? If tax rates were the overriding consideration of where to live, Manhattan should be one of the least desirable places to live and its real estate among the cheapest. Instead, the exact opposite is true. Why would a Park Avenue penthouse owner flee the country because his taxes go up 10% when he hasn't even fled NY yet?

This makes zero sense. The rich don't live in Manhattan because they don't care about that money, they live because they find the benefits of living in Manhattan as superior - the art, the culture, the travel opportunities, the nightlife, etc, and are willing to pay for that value to them. An additional tax of the same amount isn't going to have the same personal value to them. People don't send money to tax shelters because they're trying to stimulate the economies of small Caribbean islands.
   4228. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 19, 2013 at 06:56 PM (#4419799)
The rich don't live in Manhattan because they don't care about that money, they live because they find the benefits of living in Manhattan as superior - the art, the culture, the travel opportunities, the nightlife, etc, and are willing to pay for that value to them.


Precisely. And that makes their threats to leave the country if taxes go up (Like Phil Mickelson did) empty and hollow. But that doesn't stop opponents of tax increases from quoting and citing them.
   4229. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:01 PM (#4419801)
Precisely. And that makes their threats to leave the country if taxes go up (Like Phil Mickelson did) empty and hollow. But that doesn't stop opponents of tax increases from quoting and citing them.

Who are all these Republicans who argue that rich people are going to leave the country en masse rather than rich people's capital?

In #4223, you claimed that not even capital leaves the country, which is absurd. According to you, the IRS can forget about offshore tax havens and offshore tax evasion, because they don't exist or occur.
   4230. formerly dp Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:05 PM (#4419804)
You think there were as many or more abortions before abortion was legal? Laughably absurd.
Always with the talking, never with the learning.
   4231. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:06 PM (#4419806)
Always with the talking, never with the learning.

Always glib, never right.

The idea that there were as many or more abortions before abortion was legalized is absurd.
   4232. Phil Plantier's Famous Toilet Seat Stance Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:10 PM (#4419808)
They may have him...almost immediately after the press conference announcing the "search has been scaled back" and asking to go back to living our lives normally there's an exchange of gunfire (15-20 shots) in the area of a boat in a residential backyard. No link, watching on WBZ-TV in Boston. Speculating that they've got him cornered back there.
   4233. greenback calls it soccer Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:10 PM (#4419810)
The above implies that tax havens (and offshore tax evasion) are a myth, yet I distinctly recall people here bashing Romney for having assets in the Caymans.

No. Legal control of capital is not the same as economic utilization of capital. Mitt Romney's asset management is a good example of the difference.

ETA: Anybody that thinks the US faces a capital flight crisis has not been paying attention to the trade deficit.
   4234. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:13 PM (#4419813)
No. Legal control of capital is not the same as economic utilization of capital. Mitt Romney's asset management is a good example of the difference.

And? Are you claiming Romney gained no tax advantage by holding and/or investing assets in the Caymans rather than in high-tax Boston or New York City?

Romney aside, why do Americans have billions if not trillions in offshore accounts if there's no tax advantage to having such accounts?
   4235. formerly dp Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:17 PM (#4419815)
The idea that there were as many or more abortions before abortion was legalized is absurd.
Does it make sense to speak in terms of raw numbers, unless you're trying to do anything other than point-score? Aren't rate stats the better measure? How do you measure the number of abortions performed before doing so was legal? Even now, gathering reliable data on the subject isn't easy. It seems like you're reasoning from logic, rather than evidence.

But my assumption whenever you're talking is that you just want to spew talking points, rather than refine your understanding of a question. And you've never disappointed on that front...
   4236. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:22 PM (#4419819)
Does it make sense to speak in terms of raw numbers, unless you're trying to do anything other than point-score? Aren't rate stats the better measure? How do you measure the number of abortions performed before doing so was legal? Even now, gathering reliable data on the subject isn't easy. It seems like you're reasoning from logic, rather than evidence.

I didn't cite any raw numbers. Are you seriously arguing that women were having abortions at a higher rate before abortion was legal? What evidence do you have to support such an odd hypothesis? "The scholarship," as you like to say, seems to clearly show otherwise. (The graph in the first link shows the abortion rate nearly doubled in the eight years from 1973 to 1981.)

But my assumption whenever you're talking is that you just want to spew talking points, rather than refine your understanding of a question. And you've never disappointed on that front...

Ha ha. I'm always open to "refining [my] understanding," so long as the person offering such enlightenment isn't a charlatan.
   4237. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:25 PM (#4419822)
   4238. formerly dp Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:27 PM (#4419823)
I didn't cite any raw numbers. Are you seriously arguing that women were having abortions at a higher rate before abortion was legal? What evidence do you have to support such an odd hypothesis?
So you don't have any numbers that back you up, you're just making an assertion based on how you think the world is? No danger drawing definitive conclusions from that.
Ha ha. I'm always open to "refining [my] understanding," so long as the person offering such enlightenment isn't a charlatan.
Learning is antithetical to your existence. It would shatter your worldview. See above.
   4239. NTNgod Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:28 PM (#4419825)
Err, having missed the afternoon coverage, the older/dead bomber was on the government radar back in 2011, due to an unnamed foreign goverment (gee, hard to guess THAT one) believing he had extremist ties and requesting the US interview him?

At least it appears like things will come to a head shortly with the the younger bomber.
   4240. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:29 PM (#4419826)
Incidentally, there's a possibility that they've got the guy in Watertown cornered inside a boat.
   4241. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:30 PM (#4419830)
[4239] CNN was just talking about that, the FBI has stated that they did interview Tamerlan in (IIRC) 2011 ...
   4242. formerly dp Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:32 PM (#4419835)
"The scholarship," as you like to say, seems to clearly show otherwise. (The graph in the first link shows the abortion rate nearly doubled in the eight years from 1973 to 1981.)
I like the research you did after the edit better. But the numbers have leveled off, and you still have that messy problem of claiming to know how many *illegal* abortions were performed pre-Roe. Which is tough to isolate, and you're refusing to consider that the actual number might have been higher, back when performing/receiving them was a criminal activity.
   4243. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:32 PM (#4419836)
So you don't have any numbers that back you up, you're just making an assertion based on how you think the world is? No danger drawing definitive conclusions from that.
Learning is antithetical to your existence. It would shatter your worldview. See above.

Take another look at #4236.
   4244. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:33 PM (#4419840)
Reports suggest that police are in a "waiting mode", so maybe they got the guy and just need bomb squad and evidence technicians to do their thing. One hopes.
   4245. Phil Plantier's Famous Toilet Seat Stance Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:37 PM (#4419845)
Reports of police light trucks coming in, so they may be settling down to wait him out in hopes of getting him alive.

Reports also saying he was located with a thermal imaging camera from one of the helicopters. If that's true I wonder why it took so long.
   4246. Lassus Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:38 PM (#4419847)
This kid is going to get killed, and that's going to suck, because it will drive the conspiracy people ####### insane.
   4247. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:38 PM (#4419848)
I like the research you did after the edit better. But the numbers have leveled off, and you still have that messy problem of claiming to know how many *illegal* abortions were performed pre-Roe. Which is tough to isolate, and you're refusing to consider that the actual number might have been higher, back when performing/receiving them was a criminal activity.

This is comical. I just showed that the abortion rate nearly doubled in the first eight years after Roe, but you're still clinging to some bizarre, non-evidence-based belief that the abortion rate was higher when abortion was illegal and potentially life-threatening for the mother. It's laughable.
   4248. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:40 PM (#4419853)
Reports also saying he was located with a thermal imaging camera from one of the helicopters. If that's true I wonder why it took so long.

There's also a report that he was spotted after a resident noticed a ladder having been moved by the boat, and another report that there's a dead body in the boat. Reports: collect 'em all!
   4249. spike Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:41 PM (#4419855)
it will drive the conspiracy people ####### insane

By inspection, they are already there. Plenty of folks still believe the Saudi guy was really responsible.
   4250. tshipman Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:42 PM (#4419856)
Shorter Kehoskie:

Reducing access to abortions lowers how often they occur, but reducing access to guns would in no way lower how often mass shootings occur.


This kid is going to get killed, and that's going to suck, because it will drive the conspiracy people ####### insane.


The same week that gold dropped, too!
   4251. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:45 PM (#4419859)
Reducing access to abortions lowers how often they occur, but reducing access to guns would in no way lower how often mass shootings occur.

LOL. Good luck with your gun-confiscation program, Shipman.

Funny how the same liberals who insist we can't identify and deport 11 million illegal immigrants seem to believe we can magically eliminate a substantial number of the 270,000,000 guns that are privately held in the U.S., to the point that an Adam Lanza couldn't get his hands on a gun.
   4252. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:46 PM (#4419860)
Sweet Jumping Jesus on a teeny-tiny pogo-stock, this is the most I've watched CNN in years and ... it's ... awful beyond belief.

   4253. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:47 PM (#4419863)
Sweet Jumping Jesus on a teeny-tiny pogo-stock, this is the most I've watched CNN in years and ... it's ... awful beyond belief.

Concur.
   4254. spike Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:48 PM (#4419864)
I have all but given up on broadcast news. Just horrifyingly bad.
   4255. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:51 PM (#4419867)
The idea that there were as many or more abortions before abortion was legalized is absurd.

Does it make sense to speak in terms of raw numbers, unless you're trying to do anything other than point-score? Aren't rate stats the better measure? How do you measure the number of abortions performed before doing so was legal? Even now, gathering reliable data on the subject isn't easy. It seems like you're reasoning from logic, rather than evidence.

You basically can't compare it all anyway. There are far to many other factors, which lead to changes in the number of abortions, especially stemming from cultural changes within society. Most notably the progression of sexual liberation, and the acceptance of premarital sex as normal. Basically there are a ton of reasons that unwanted pregnancies are more common now, and the more unwanted pregnancies there are, the more abortions are going to be performed.

It's the baseball equivalent of looking at the increase of run scoring between 1990 and 2002, and claiming it's all due to steroids, while ignoring any other contributing factors.
   4256. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:54 PM (#4419872)
Police scanner over the past 7-8 minutes (supposedly-- let's not forget the two incorrect scanner "I.D.s" from last night): Man in the boat is sitting up, still alive, has been shot, police ordered to hold fire.
   4257. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:56 PM (#4419876)
CNN (ugh) is reporting 8 explosions, presumably flash-bangs.
   4258. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:57 PM (#4419879)
You basically can't compare it all anyway. There are far to many other factors, which lead to changes in the number of abortions, especially stemming from cultural changes within society. Most notably the progression of sexual liberation, and the acceptance of premarital sex as normal. Basically there are a ton of reasons that unwanted pregnancies are more common now, and the more unwanted pregnancies there are, the more abortions are going to be performed.

It's the baseball equivalent of looking at the increase of run scoring between 1990 and 2002, and claiming it's all due to steroids, while ignoring any other contributing factors.

The abortion rate nearly doubled in the first 8 years after Roe. The legalization of abortion, and subsequent easier and safer access to abortion, might not be responsible for all or even a majority of the increased demand, but it's illogical to pretend it had no effect. It assuredly had a very large effect.
   4259. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 07:58 PM (#4419880)
Now the presumption is gas grenade launchers.
   4260. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:04 PM (#4419889)
"the suspect cornered ... in a 'structure' ... we're not going to say more for ... tactical reasons"

Good thinking CNN, I'm sure he's watching ...
   4261. zenbitz Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:06 PM (#4419891)
Can i get an update on the minature flag rate since Roe?
   4262. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:08 PM (#4419892)

We live in interesting times ...
   4263. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:09 PM (#4419894)
Well, CNN, if this *isn't* the suspect, someone's unexpectedly having a really bad day ...
   4264. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:11 PM (#4419897)
Now watching FOX ... Papa Bear O'Reilly ... "Hell, tonight, has a new resident ..."

[edit] O'Reilly has just said that this was triggered by a resident calling 911 with a report of "blood on their shed"
   4265. tshipman Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:13 PM (#4419900)
Well, CNN, if this *isn't* the suspect, someone's unexpectedly having a really bad day ...


Can you imagine some low level drug dealer being stuck on that boat? \"####, man, I just sold a dime bag!"
   4266. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:14 PM (#4419903)
Can i get an update on the minature flag rate since Roe?


No.

The miniature American flags are for others.
   4267. NTNgod Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:15 PM (#4419905)
Maybe it's the missing Brown student, that overnight everyone thought was "Mr. White Hat", in the boat :P
   4268. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:19 PM (#4419909)
Oh, FOX, you were doing so well ... but now you're talking to Geraldo Rivera and, well, I'm going to have to dock you some serious ####### points.
   4269. NTNgod Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:20 PM (#4419911)
Is Geraldo offering to get in the boat with the bomber for an interview?
   4270. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:27 PM (#4419919)
Oh, FOX, you were doing so well ... but now you're talking to Geraldo Rivera and, well, I'm going to have to dock you some serious ####### points.

Any points for diversity?

***
Maybe it's the missing Brown student, that overnight everyone thought was "Mr. White Hat", in the boat :P

Can you imagine being that kid's family? He's missing for weeks, then identified as a terrorist, then, nope, missing again. Unreal.
   4271. Lassus Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:32 PM (#4419924)
I still remember the fight between Vonnegut and Geraldo. Talk about overmatched.
   4272. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:32 PM (#4419926)
This is both hilarious and kind of sad.
   4273. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:42 PM (#4419934)
Funny how the same liberals who insist we can't identify and deport 11 million illegal immigrants seem to believe we can magically eliminate a substantial number of the 270,000,000 guns that are privately held in the U.S., to the point that an Adam Lanza couldn't get his hands on a gun.
On the other hand, the right-cons who insist we not only identify and deport 11 million people AND build a wall that will millions more out can't see how it's possible to reduce the number of guns in America by one.
   4274. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:42 PM (#4419935)
Suspect in custody.
   4275. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:45 PM (#4419939)
RE: #4272

Tony Soprano: [over the phone] It's a bad connection so I'm gonna talk fast! The guy you're looking for is an ex-commando! He killed sixteen Chechen rebels single-handed!
Paulie 'Walnuts' Gualtieri: Get the #### outta here.
Tony Soprano: Yeah. Nice, huh? He was with the Interior Ministry. Guy's like a Russian green beret. He can not come back and tell this story. You understand?
Paulie 'Walnuts' Gualtieri: I hear you.
[hangs up]
Paulie 'Walnuts' Gualtieri: You're not gonna believe this. He killed sixteen Czechoslovakians. Guy was an interior decorator.
Christopher Moltisanti: His house looked like ####.
   4276. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:45 PM (#4419940)
On the other hand, the right-cons who insist we not only identify and deport 11 million people AND build a wall that will millions more out can't see how it's possible to reduce the number of guns in America by one.

They can't? I see right-wingers complaining about gun laws not being enforced all the time.
   4277. spike Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:45 PM (#4419941)
Remains to be seen if he's alive or going to survive tho
   4278. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:47 PM (#4419942)
They can't? I see right-wingers complaining about gun laws not being enforced all the time.
That's not a reduction in guns being advocated.
   4279. Howie Menckel Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:49 PM (#4419944)

medic sought, but yes he's caught
   4280. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:49 PM (#4419946)
This kid is going to get killed, and that's going to suck, because it will drive the conspiracy people ####### insane.

There's not much you can do about the conspiracy nuts. Even if this guy is caught and confesses, some will believe all the evidence is fabricated and/or planted.
   4281. spike Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:50 PM (#4419947)
He's alive! Time for a little celebratory waterboarding.
   4282. Lassus Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:50 PM (#4419948)
Funny how the same liberals

BINGO!
   4283. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:51 PM (#4419950)
That's not a reduction in guns being advocated.

Oh, so it's the number of guns and not who has them? Funny.

How many guns would need to be melted down before a deranged killer like Adam Lanza couldn't get his hands on a gun?
   4284. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 08:56 PM (#4419959)
Funny how the same liberals


BINGO!

It is now cocktail time in California.

Aaah!
   4285. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:01 PM (#4419971)
Oh, so it's the number of guns and not who has them? Funny.
I was pretty specific: The NRA and their hand puppets won't contenance a reduction of even a single gun in America. As for Chicago, I'm pretty sure the NRA's answer for that would be... more guns.

How many guns would need to be melted down before a deranged killer like Adam Lanza couldn't get his hands on a gun?
Less cigarettes reduce incidences of lung cancer, even if you can't show that it prevents any specific case. Reducing guns wouldn't have prevented Newtown, but it would reduce the 80+ dead per day by gun.
   4286. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:11 PM (#4419987)
I was pretty specific: The NRA and their hand puppets won't contenance a reduction of even a single gun in America.

I guess I've missed the angry mobs of NRA members attacking the gun buyback programs that have been held in cities from coast to coast.

Less cigarettes reduce incidences of lung cancer, even if you can't show that it prevents any specific case. Reducing guns wouldn't have prevented Newtown, but it would reduce the 80+ dead per day by gun.

Ah, we're back to the suicides. This seems like the same logic that has Nanny Bloomberg trying to ban large sodas.
   4287. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:14 PM (#4419991)
Ah, we're back to the suicides.
Lames dodge ever. According to Joe, all gun deaths are suicides except for the ones in Chicago. You might as well just say that you don't think there's a problem with gun violence. At least be honest.
   4288. SteveF Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:17 PM (#4419997)
According to Joe, all gun deaths are suicides except for the ones in Chicago.


You did cite the number 80 a day. You only get to 80 a day by including suicides. If you exclude suicides the number is closer to ~32 a day. I believe that's the point he's making. I have no opinion of whether or not suicides should be included.

As for the discussion, it's almost pointless to have. Handguns cannot be made illegal unless the Second Amendment is repealed, and that's essentially what you need to do to carve into the number of gun deaths in the US.

Edit: And repealing the Second Amendment would only be a starting point. You'd likely need to wait a decade or more to see any results (assuming you could even get a Federal law banning guns through Congress, which obviously you cannot).
   4289. Joe Kehoskie Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:26 PM (#4420011)
Lames dodge ever. According to Joe, all gun deaths are suicides except for the ones in Chicago. You might as well just say that you don't think there's a problem with gun violence. At least be honest.

"At least be honest"? You must be kidding. You're the one using suicide-inflated numbers and pretending that guns just randomly kill people rather than blaming the people who pull the trigger, with inane comments like this:

"Reducing guns wouldn't have prevented Newtown, but it would reduce the 80+ dead per day by gun."

Yes, yes. If only the NRA wasn't passing out free guns like candy at a parade.

How do you propose that we "reduce guns"? Not even Obama's gun bill would have reduced guns; at best, it would have reduced access, which is a concept you rejected in #4278.
   4290. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:26 PM (#4420012)
Handguns cannot be made illegal unless the Second Amendment is repealed


Or the composition of the Supreme Court is changed ...
   4291. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:27 PM (#4420014)
As for the discussion, it's almost pointless to have. Handguns cannot be made illegal unless the Second Amendment is repealed, and that's essentially what you need to do to carve into the number of gun deaths in the US.

I'd personally be willing to let people keep all the assault weapons they wanted in return for outlawing handguns. I only know the 2nd amendment law I learned in law school, but I'm not sure why they would be considered a special class of gun constitutionally (especially for originalists).
   4292. SteveF Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:29 PM (#4420015)
Or the composition of the Supreme Court is changed ...


They'd have to explicitly overturn McDonald v. Chicago. Historically that's reasonably rare, especially at the margins.

I'm not sure why they would be considered a special class of gun constitutionally (especially for originalists).


I think the argument used was the inherent right to self defense that underlies part of the motivation for the existence of the Second Amendment. But you should read the oral argument/decision and reach your own conclusion.
   4293. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:31 PM (#4420017)
Kudos to BPD for bringing this guy in alive. I'm sure a lot of cowboy departments would have blown him the hell up.
   4294. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:36 PM (#4420024)
Handguns cannot be made illegal unless the Second Amendment is repealed
The way free speech has been curtailed with the repeal of the First Amendment? Regulation of rights isn't a new thing, nor is it particularly controversial for anything besides guns.
   4295. Steve Treder Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:37 PM (#4420026)
Kudos to BPD for bringing this guy in alive. I'm sure a lot of cowboy departments would have blown him the hell up.

Well, this was hardly just BPD. This was under the direction of the FBI, and involved every flipping jurisdiction one can imagine, both below, around, and above the BPD. But based on what we know now (and we don't know what we don't know), it appears that law enforcement nailed this rotten nasty pitch, right out of the park.
   4296. SteveF Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:43 PM (#4420038)
Regulation of rights isn't a new thing, nor is it particularly controversial for anything besides guns.


In this case there is McDonald v. Chicago. I agree that in the general sense, you're perfectly correct. In this particular instance, the Supreme Court chose specifically to protect the right to own handguns.
   4297. Mike A Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:44 PM (#4420043)
Not entirely sure he's going to stay alive...one reporter said she saw CPR being performed in the ambulance and neighbors say he was covered in blood.

Not that I'll shed any tears for Tsarnaev if he dies, but I guess you hope he makes it to better understand the 'why' part.
   4298. Howie Menckel Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:46 PM (#4420048)

some reports that he is lost a lot of blood - not clear yet he'll be alive tomorrow

   4299. Rennie's Tenet Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:47 PM (#4420050)
The guy who owned the boat went over and looked under the tarp? Big, big ones.
   4300. tshipman Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:50 PM (#4420055)
In this case there is McDonald v. Chicago. I agree that in the general sense, you're perfectly correct. In this particular instance, the Supreme Court chose specifically to protect the right to own handguns.


The court has become much less bound by precedent. Wickard v. Filburn was barely a speedbump to the court.
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