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Sunday, May 26, 2019

Dallas Keuchel rumors: Two AL East teams reportedly expected to get in bidding war for lefty

Both the Rays and Yankees are keeping an eye on Dallas Keuchel.

Tampa Bay and New York could get in a bidding war for the 2015 American League Cy Young winner at midnight on June 2, according to The Athletic.

The odd timing is due to Keuchel getting a qualifying offer by the Astros, meaning if a team signs him they would have to give up their first selection in the MLB Draft this season. The draft pick compensation comes off of Keuchel on June 2 and then any team can pick him up without giving up a selection, or the slot money that comes with it.

The Yankees would lose the 38th pick and $1.952 million of slot money if they were to sign Keuchel before June 2 while the Rays would have to give up the No. 40 selection and $1.857 million.

So, management will fool around for months over picks that low and amounts of money that are pocket change by the standards of the game?

 

QLE Posted: May 26, 2019 at 10:09 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cold stove, dallas keuchel, rays, yankees

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   1. John Northey Posted: May 26, 2019 at 11:31 AM (#5845768)
Love the concept of a Rays vs Yankees bidding war. One would think the Yankees would win it with zero effort but with the luxury tax they might be feeling more limited than before, while the Rays only need to worry about what to do with his contract after 2019 (as I'd fully expect in a multi-year deal for them to trade him 10 minutes after the season is done).
   2. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 26, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5845770)
So which team needs Keuchel more? The Rays, with their ace on the IL and in danger of falling further behind, but with a staff ERA+ of 147? Or the Yankees, with their former ace on the IL, with a fragile set of starters and a bullpen that falls off the cliff at the bottom end, but with a much deeper offensive lineup that's only going to get better as their stars return to action?

And just how good is Keuchel at this point?
   3. bobm Posted: May 26, 2019 at 12:28 PM (#5845772)
From B-R

38th Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft

38th pick: 54 matching player(s). 25 played in the majors (46%). Total of 207.7 WAR, or 8.3 per major leaguer.

                                                                                      
Year   Rnd FrRnd RdPck                    Tm Signed                      Name Pos  WAR
2018     1 FrRnd    38                Padres      Y    Xavier Edwards(minors)  SS
2017     2 FrRnd     2                  Reds      Y  Stuart Fairchild(minors)  OF
2016     1 FrRnd    38               Rockies      Y      Robert Tyler(minors) RHP
2015     1 FrRnd    38               Rockies      Y       Tyler Nevin(minors)  3B
2014     1 FrRnd    38               Indians      Y         Mike Papi(minors)  OF
2013     1 FrRnd    38                  Reds      Y  Michael Lorenzen(minors) RHP  4.5
2012    1s FrRnd    38               Brewers      Y    *Mitch Haniger(minors)  OF 10.8
2011    1s FrRnd    38                  Rays      Y   *Brandon Martin(minors)  SS
2010    1s FrRnd    38             Blue Jays      Y *Noah Syndergaard(minors) RHP 13.6
2009    1s FrRnd    38             White Sox      Y     *Josh Phegley(minors)   C  2.6
2008    1s FrRnd    38                Astros      Y     *Jordan Lyles(minors) RHP -1.8
2007    1s FrRnd    38             Blue Jays      Y      *Brett Cecil(minors) LHP  6.6
2006    1s FrRnd    38                Braves      Y      *Cory Rasmus(minors) RHP  0.5
2005    1s FrRnd    38                Astros      Y         *Eli Iorg(minors)  OF
2004    1s FrRnd    38             White Sox      Y     *Gio Gonzalez(minors) lHP 28.4
2003     2 FrRnd     1            Devil Rays      Y      James Houser(minors) LHP -0.2
2002    1s FrRnd    38                  Cubs      Y     *Matt Clanton(minors) RHP
2001    1s FrRnd    38                  Mets      Y     *David Wright(minors)  3B 50.4
2000    1s FrRnd    38                Braves      Y    *Kelly Johnson(minors)  SS 17.9
1999    1s FrRnd    38               Rangers      Y      *Colby Lewis(minors) RHP  8.7
1998    1s FrRnd    38                Giants      Y      *Chris Jones(minors) LHP
1997    1s FrRnd    38                 Expos      Y     *Scott Hodges(minors)  SS
1996     2 FrRnd     3    Reds via Cardinals      Y    *Buddy Carlyle(minors) LHP -1.3
1995     2 FrRnd     8               Rockies      Y       Ben Petrick(minors)   C  0.5
1994     2 FrRnd     4               Brewers      Y         Doug Webb(minors) RHP
1993    1s FrRnd    38                 Twins      Y    *Kelcey Mucker(minors)  OF
1992    1s FrRnd    38               Brewers      Y   *Gabby Martinez(minors)  SS
1991    1s FrRnd    38             Athletics      Y    *Mike Rossiter(minors) RHP
1990    1s FrRnd    38              Mariners      Y     *Tony Manahan(minors)  SS
1989     2 FrRnd     8                  Cubs      Y        Gary Scott(minors)  3B -1.3
1988     2 FrRnd     8     Giants via Angels      Y      *Scott Ebert(minors) RHP
1987     2 FrRnd     6                Braves      Y        Mike Urman(minors)   C
1986     2 FrRnd    10                 Twins      Y      Jeff Bronkey(minors) RHP  0.5
1985     2 FrRnd    10               Dodgers      Y      Jeremy Smith(minors)   C
1984     2 FrRnd    10 Indians via Athletics      N    *Kurt Dempster(minors) RHP
1983     2 FrRnd    10    Dodgers via Padres      Y      *Mike Cherry(minors) RHP
1982     2 FrRnd    10                Royals      Y       Joe Szekely(minors)   C
1981     2 FrRnd    12       Mets via Braves      Y *John Christensen(minors)  OF -0.9
1980     2 FrRnd    12                 Twins      Y        Tim Teufel(minors)  2B 15.3
1979     2 FrRnd    12                  Cubs      Y       Shane Allen(minors) INF
1978     2 FrRnd    12                Tigers      Y     Craig Johnson(minors)  OF
1977     2 FrRnd    12                  Cubs      N    Terry Francona(minors)  1B -3.0
1976     2 FrRnd    14               Indians      Y        Sam Spence(minors) RHP
1975     2 FrRnd    14                Astros      Y       Ed Andersen(minors) RHP
1974     2 FrRnd    14                 Twins      Y     Butch Wynegar(minors)   C 26.5
1973     2 FrRnd    14                  Mets      Y      Jackson Todd(minors) RHP  1.6
1972     2 FrRnd    14               Yankees      Y          Ken Clay(minors) RHP -1.2
1971     2 FrRnd    14                  Mets      Y      James Kidder(minors)  2B
1970     2 FrRnd    14              Senators      Y    Art DeFilippis(minors) LHP
1969     2 FrRnd    14                  Reds      Y      Kent Burdick(minors)  OF
1968     2 FrRnd    18                Tigers      Y      Bob Molinaro(minors)  OF  0.7
1967     2 FrRnd    18                Giants      Y      Michael Roby(minors)  1B
1966     2 FrRnd    18             White Sox      N      Johnny Oates(minors)   C  3.3
1965     2 FrRnd    18              Phillies      Y       Larry Hisle(minors)  OF 25.0


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/26/2019.
   4. bobm Posted: May 26, 2019 at 12:36 PM (#5845774)
40th Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft

54 matching player(s). 18 played in the majors (33%). Total of 97.1 WAR, or 5.4 per major leaguer.

                                                                                        
Year   Rnd FrRnd RdPck                    Tm Signed                        Name Pos  WAR
2018     1 FrRnd    40                Royals      Y          Kris Bubic(minors) LHP
2017     2 FrRnd     4                  Rays      Y     Michael Mercado(minors) RHP
2016     1 FrRnd    40                Braves      Y          Joey Wentz(minors) LHP
2015     1 FrRnd    40               Brewers      Y        Nathan Kirby(minors) LHP
2014     1 FrRnd    40                Royals      Y        Chase Vallot(minors)   C
2013     2 FrRnd     1                Astros      Y      Andrew Thurman(minors) RHP
2012    1s FrRnd    40              Phillies      Y       *Shane Watson(minors) RHP
2011    1s FrRnd    40               Red Sox      Y *Jackie Bradley Jr.(minors)  OF 12.3
2010    1s FrRnd    40                Angels      Y        *Ryan Bolden(minors)  CF
2009    1s FrRnd    40                Angels      Y       *Tyler Skaggs(minors) LHP  2.4
2008    1s FrRnd    40                Braves      Y       *Brett DeVall(minors) LHP
2007    1s FrRnd    40                Padres      Y    *Kellen Kulbacki(minors)  OF
2006    1s FrRnd    40               Red Sox      Y       *Kris Johnson(minors) LHP  0.0
2005    1s FrRnd    40               Dodgers      N      *Luke Hochevar(minors) RHP  3.5
2004    1s FrRnd    40             Athletics      Y      *Huston Street(minors) RHP 14.4
2003     2 FrRnd     3                Tigers      Y           Jay Sborz(minors) RHP -0.3
2002    1s FrRnd    40                  Reds      Y      *Mark Schramek(minors)  3B
2001    1s FrRnd    40                Braves      Y      *Richard Lewis(minors)  2B
2000    1s FrRnd    40                Braves      Y         *Aaron Herr(minors)  SS
1999    1s FrRnd    40               Red Sox      Y         *Brad Baker(minors) RHP
1998    1s FrRnd    40               Rockies      Y    *Jeff Winchester(minors)   C
1997    1s FrRnd    40               Yankees      Y       *Ryan Bradley(minors) RHP -0.1
1996     2 FrRnd     5                 Expos      Y      Milton Bradley(minors)  OF 16.9
1995     2 FrRnd    10               Pirates      Y        Garrett Long(minors)  1B
1994     2 FrRnd     6                Angels      Y       Norm Hutchins(minors)  OF
1993    1s FrRnd    40             Blue Jays      Y         *Jeremy Lee(minors) RHP
1992     2 FrRnd     2               Indians      Y       Mike Matthews(minors) LHP  0.6
1991    1s FrRnd    40                Astros      Y     *Jimmy Gonzalez(minors)   C
1990    1s FrRnd    40                 Expos      Y     *Stan Robertson(minors)  OF
1989     2 FrRnd    10                 Expos      Y        Glenn Murray(minors)   C -0.6
1988     2 FrRnd    10             White Sox      Y      Lenny Brutcher(minors) RHP
1987     2 FrRnd     8               Dodgers      Y         Don Carroll(minors)  OF
1986     2 FrRnd    12             Athletics      Y        Kevin Tapani(minors) RHP 29.2
1985     2 FrRnd    12                Astros      Y         Bert Hunter(minors)  SS
1984     2 FrRnd    12               Rangers      Y       Jimmy Meadows(minors) RHP
1983     2 FrRnd    12 Cardinals via Pirates      Y         *Paul Oates(minors) LHP
1982     2 FrRnd    12               Indians      Y          Jim Wilson(minors)  1B -0.2
1981     2 FrRnd    14               Pirates      Y         Lee Tunnell(minors) RHP  0.9
1980     2 FrRnd    14               Rangers      Y        Dwayne Henry(minors) RHP -0.1
1979     2 FrRnd    14                Padres      N       Derek Tatsuno(minors) LHP
1978     2 FrRnd    14     Padres via Angels      Y        *Doug Gwosdz(minors)   C -0.8
1977     2 FrRnd    14                Astros      Y         Stan Leland(minors) RHP
1976     2 FrRnd    16               Yankees      Y       Calvin Riggar(minors) LHP
1975     2 FrRnd    16             Cardinals      Y         Kelly Paris(minors)  SS -1.0
1974     2 FrRnd    16                Tigers      Y        James Taylor(minors) LHP
1973     2 FrRnd    16                  Cubs      Y      Darrell Turner(minors) RHP
1972     2 FrRnd    16               Red Sox      Y       Steve Dillard(minors)  SS -1.4
1971     2 FrRnd    16                  Cubs      Y         Steven Haug(minors)   C
1970     2 FrRnd    16               Red Sox      Y         Fred Wegner(minors)  OF
1969     2 FrRnd    16                  Cubs      Y          Larry Gura(minors) LHP 21.4
1968     2 FrRnd    20               Red Sox      Y       Curtis Suchan(minors) INF
1967     2 FrRnd    20               Dodgers      Y       Thomas Harris(minors)  SS
1966     2 FrRnd    20                 Twins      Y         Leo Pinnick(minors) LHP
1965     2 FrRnd    20             Cardinals      Y        Terry Milani(minors)  1B


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/26/2019.
   5. JRVJ Posted: May 26, 2019 at 05:30 PM (#5845816)
I don't think that this is what bobm is trying to say, but I don't agree with looking at the decision of whether to sign or not sign a Keuchel and lose a pick by measuring how much value has obtained from that pick.


Phrased differently, I don't think it's correct to just look at the 38th pick in the draft (or the 40th pick in the draft) and see how much value has been derived from that specific pick, because the draft is a very fluid thing, and a lot of value has been derived from picks taken after the 38th one (or 40th one). The fact that teams picking with the 38th pick (or the 40th pick) didn't hit on more valuable players does not negate that there was significant value after the 38th pick (or the 40th pick).
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 26, 2019 at 05:34 PM (#5845817)
The fact that teams picking with the 38th pick (or the 40th pick) didn't hit on more valuable players does not negate that there was significant value after the 38th pick (or the 40th pick).

I looked at the list and had the opposite reaction. I said, wow, that's a ton of really good players.
   7. JRVJ Posted: May 26, 2019 at 06:10 PM (#5845820)
6, it gets much worse if you reframe your thinking and count FROM that pick on down.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 26, 2019 at 06:19 PM (#5845824)
6, it gets much worse if you reframe your thinking and count FROM that pick on down.

Of course, but that's just strength in numbers. You don't get to pick 100s of guys that come after #38, you get to pick one guy.

If you took a sample of picks around #38, say #36-40, and averaged their WAR, that's a pretty good estimate of what you're given up.

A team can't assume their so super smart that they'll do much better than average for the pick, otherwise you'll end up overvaluing picks.

With a week to go, it would be dumb to give up any inp.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: May 26, 2019 at 08:47 PM (#5845844)
Of course there are players who have good careers that were picked later than 40th. That tells you nothing useful. What is the likelihood you'll pick any such player? When such players make it, is that really about their talent/ability on draft day or is that a success of your team's development of young players -- i.e. less about any team's ability to find late-round _talent_ and more about being able to improve limited talent players (i.e. about as likely to happen with your 2nd round pick as your 5th round pick). And of course these lists give us career WAR while realistically the drafting team only controls the first 6-7 years worth of that.

The near-randomness of all of this is nicely captured in those two lists. The #38 picks of recent vintage have resulted in some darn good players; the recent #40 picks not so much. Meanwhile look at #38 ... nothing from 1981 to 1998. That's 18 picks with only 5 even making the majors, totaling negative WAR.

Maybe that means teams are getting better at this? Not if we judge by the #40 pick where from 1997 to 2011 (15 picks for ease and you'd expect anybody who would make the majors to do so by 2018 unless an unsigned HSer who went to college) and you get a total of about 30 WAR or 2 career WAR per pick, exactly the overall average WAR for that pick.

But I agree, looking at specific picks is not particularly worthwhile as any given pick can be thrown off by an outlier (Wright's 50 WAR adds nearly 1 WAR to the career average).

36: 30 players, 230 WAR, Randy Johnson (1985) responsible for 100 of that, Johnny Bench (1965) another 75 ... the other 52 picks then about 55 WAR.

37: 24, 203 WAR, Viola 47, Glaus 38, Adam Jones 33, Mike Scott 23. This is probably more what you'd like to see. There are another 4 players with 10+ WAR including James Paxton who has a reasonable shot of hitting 20+. Reasonable depth here.

38: 25, 208, See above

39: 23. 264 ... but 163 of that is Barry Bonds who was drafted by the Giants in 1982 but went to college instead. Baylor 28, Lance Lynn 16 and Randy Hundley 11 are the other 3 over 10 WAR. Gallo is the active player most likely to add to this pick's haul.

40: 18, 97 ... the worst pick in this bunch

41: 29, 105 ... nearly half of that is Fred Lynn 50; Plesac 17 is the only other 10+.

42: 20, 83 ... Dennis Leonard 26, Mookie Wilson 22, Buchholz 18

In a long-ago debate with Mets' fans (looks like 2015), I came up with the Rich Becker line just cuz I said their description of Brandon Nimmo as of 5 years ago or so sounded like Rich Becker to me. The two had a reasonable amount in common -- Nimmo (13th) picked much earlier than Becker (85) but both signed out of HS. Becker was much better at 18 (raw number comps only), better at 19, much better at 20, a bit better at 21 when he had his ML debut. Age 22, Becker started at AAA, eventually promoted; Nimmo started at AA, promoted to AAA. At 21, Becker made BA's top 100; at 22 he was #37; Nimmo at 22 was #45 at BA, #72 and #69 on the other lists.

Becker was awful in the majors at 23, had an excellent 4.3 WAR season at 24, a very solid 2.7 WAR season at 25 and ... that was about it. He was a bench player after that, bounced across 5 teams in 3 years and didn't play in the majors after age 28. Career total of 8.3 WAR ... so 8 WAR is the Becker line.

That's a GOOD result for a pick outside the top 20, maybe 30. It's a strong result for a #85. Across those 7 picks, 39 players made it to the Becker line (out of about 350 ... or 300 or wherever you want to draw the line to exclude recent picks). Give or take, a 1 out of 8 to 1 out of 9 chance of finding a player that will have an 8+ WAR career.

In terms of total WAR, it was 1190 ... but three players are responsible for nearly 30% of that (the unsigned Bonds, Unit, Bench). And who knows how much of that value was produced in the first 6-7 years of team control? The best player drafted in these slots after Wright in 2001 is Adam Jones in 2003 (33 WAR) ... looks like about 20 WAR in the pre-FA years. (Arguably the best is Syndergaard or similar but he needs to stay healthy if he's going to make it to 33 career ... the Mets could easily get 20-25 WAR out of his pre-FA years though, still a huge bargain.)

Anyway, that ain't nothing, especially when it comes to Keuchel who might not have 8 WAR left in his career. But it's also not very much especially when you consider that any WAR you get from such a pick (except Huston Street) is likely to be 4-5 years down the line. Clearly you would hate to miss out on the 1 out of 18 chance of finding somebody who'll put up 20+ WAR much less a Jones or Wright or of course a HoFer.

As to Nimmo, his 4.4 WAR at 25 looks a lot like Becker's 4.3 WAR at 24 in overall value -- Nimmo's power surge was unexpected and beats anything Becker ever did. But he's been lousy so far this year and the power has disappeared, currently replacement level. The bulging disc is a worry.

   10. JRVJ Posted: May 26, 2019 at 08:49 PM (#5845845)

Of course, but that's just strength in numbers. You don't get to pick 100s of guys that come after #38, you get to pick one guy.

If you took a sample of picks around #38, say #36-40, and averaged their WAR, that's a pretty good estimate of what you're given up.


Your approach seems more sensible. In any case, what I was trying to point out is that comparing all 38th picks and all 40th picks as if there were something inherently special in those slots is a mistake.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 26, 2019 at 08:53 PM (#5845846)
Your approach seems more sensible. In any case, what I was trying to point out is that comparing all 38th picks and all 40th picks as if there were something inherently special in those slots is a mistake.

Agree.
   12. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: May 26, 2019 at 09:21 PM (#5845849)
I was about to say what JRVJ said. I think you have to look at the wisdom of crowds a bit. Just because a team could’ve maxed value by drafting Piazza in one of the first 61 rounds doesn’t mean he was seen as a realistic pick there.

That said I like bobs list. It’s imperfect but a pretty reasonable way of looking at the value of the pick. I suspect that expanding to the next five or ten picks likely wouldn’t give much more information than his list has.
   13. spycake Posted: May 27, 2019 at 10:07 AM (#5845877)
So, management will fool around for months over picks that low and amounts of money that are pocket change by the standards of the game?


It's not the amount of bonus money, but rather how irreplaceable it is. There is pretty much a hard cap on amateur spending now, and you generally can't trade picks or draft bonus money either.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 27, 2019 at 11:18 AM (#5845887)
I was about to say what JRVJ said. I think you have to look at the wisdom of crowds a bit. Just because a team could’ve maxed value by drafting Piazza in one of the first 61 rounds doesn’t mean he was seen as a realistic pick there.


100%. Some guys just develop way beyond what even the best scout could have predicted. Most of these huge misses are not a situation where the guy was a great player and 100 scouts missed it. 99.9% of the time the guy was bad, the scouts got it right, and then something changed and the guy became good.
   15. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 27, 2019 at 06:44 PM (#5846013)


100%. Some guys just develop way beyond what even the best scout could have predicted. Most of these huge misses are not a situation where the guy was a great player and 100 scouts missed it. 99.9% of the time the guy was bad, the scouts got it right, and then something changed and the guy became good.


Yes, the fact that sometimes the same thing even happens at the MLB level should be an indication that judging talent in the draft is at best an imprecise science. I mean, three organizations had Justin Turner before the Mets let him walk and the Dodgers signed him for 2 years / $3.5 million, when he suddenly became a consistent 4-5 WAR player.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 27, 2019 at 08:05 PM (#5846025)
Yes, the fact that sometimes the same thing even happens at the MLB level should be an indication that judging talent in the draft is at best an imprecise science. I mean, three organizations had Justin Turner before the Mets let him walk and the Dodgers signed him for 2 years / $3.5 million, when he suddenly became a consistent 4-5 WAR player.

Or how about Jose Bautista? He was on his sixth organization (Pirates twice) before he put up a 35 WAR career.

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